Online Phenology Models and Degree-day Calculator
immaturedamageadult
spotted wing Drosophila [fruit]
invasive insect model of OSU IPPC model analysis vers. 3.0


Output from uspest.org/wea invasive insect degree-day/phenology model program:
	Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================ Model species/general links: spotted wing Drosophila [fruit] Type: invasive insect Model source/other links: OSU IPPC model analysis vers. 3.0 Calculation method: single sine Lower threshold: 50 degrees Fahrenheit Upper threshold: 88 degrees Fahrenheit Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1 Ending date: 9 15 Model validation status: partly validated-has been compared to 2 years of field data in PNW Region of known use: potential for use in US ==============================EVENTS TABLE================================ 1. 261 DDs after Jan 1: 1st EGG LAYING BY OW FEMALES 2. 510 DDs after Jan 1: PEAK (ca. 50%) EGG LAYING BY OW FEMALES; 1st ADULT EMERGE 1st GEN 3. 565 DDs after Jan 1: 1st EGG LAYING BY 1st GEN FEMALES 4. 755 DDs after Jan 1: PEAK ADULT EMERGE 1st GEN 5. 995 DDs after Jan 1: PEAK EGG LAYING BY 1st GEN FEMALES; MAX 2+ GENS. 6. 1249 DDs after Jan 1: PEAK ADULT EMERGE 2nd GEN; MAX 3+ GENS. 7. 1489 DDs after Jan 1: PEAK EGG LAYING BY 2nd GEN FEMALES; MAX 4+ GENS. 8. 1743 DDs after Jan 1: PEAK ADULT EMERGE 3rd GEN; MAX 5 GENS. 9. 1983 DDs after Jan 1: PEAK EGG LAYING BY 3rd GEN FEMALES; MAX 6+ GENS. 10. 2237 DDs after Jan 1: PEAK ADULT EMERGE 4th GEN; MAX 6+ GENS. 11. 2477 DDs after Jan 1: PEAK EGG LAYING BY 4th GEN FEMALES; MAX 7+ GENS. 12. 2731 DDs after Jan 1: PEAK ADULT EMERGE 5th GEN; MAX 8+ GENS. 13. 2971 DDs after Jan 1: PEAK EGG LAYING BY 5th GEN FEMALES; MAX 9+ GENS. ==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================ Weather station: 2018 KPGD METAR Punta Gorda Charlotte FL Lat:26.9178 Long:-81.9933 Elev:23 mn day max min precip DD50 CUMDD50 event -- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- ------- 1 1 71.60 46.90 0.01 9.72 9.7 * START * 1 2 61.00 44.60 0.00 4.16 13.9 1 3 60.80 43.00 0.07 3.85 17.7 1 4 60.80 32.00 0.00 2.93 20.7 1 5 62.60 35.10 0.00 3.82 24.5 1 6 66.20 37.40 0.00 5.52 30.0 1 7 73.40 37.00 0.00 8.63 38.6 1 8 75.20 50.00 0.14 12.60 51.2 1 9 81.00 60.10 1.07 20.55 71.8 1 10 82.40 60.10 0.00 21.25 93.0 1 11 82.90 62.10 0.00 22.50 115.5 1 12 82.40 60.80 0.00 21.60 137.1 1 13 71.10 48.00 0.00 9.80 146.9 1 14 66.00 39.00 0.00 5.62 152.6 1 15 73.40 44.10 0.00 9.90 162.4 1 16 77.00 48.00 0.00 12.72 175.2 1 17 73.90 44.10 0.00 10.14 185.3 1 18 60.10 30.00 0.00 2.58 187.9 1 19 70.00 37.00 0.00 7.12 195.0 1 20 75.20 48.00 0.00 11.83 206.8 1 21 81.00 57.00 0.00 19.00 225.8 1 22 84.90 55.40 0.00 20.15 246.0 1 23 81.00 63.00 0.01 22.00 268.0 1st EGG LAYING BY OW FEMALES 1 24 79.00 53.60 0.00 16.30 284.3 1 25 75.90 48.20 0.00 12.25 296.5 1 26 79.00 53.10 0.00 16.05 312.6 1 27 79.00 55.40 0.00 17.20 329.8 1 28 82.40 62.60 1.76 22.50 352.3 1 29 79.00 59.00 2.64 19.00 371.3 1 30 68.00 44.10 0.00 7.33 378.6 1 31 73.90 41.00 0.00 9.51 388.1 2 1 79.00 46.40 0.00 13.21 401.3 2 2 82.40 52.00 0.00 17.20 418.5 2 3 75.90 57.00 0.00 16.45 435.0 2 4 82.90 55.00 0.66 18.95 453.9 2 5 77.00 57.90 0.00 17.45 471.4 2 6 86.00 57.00 0.00 21.50 492.9 2 7 84.90 60.80 0.00 22.85 515.7 PEAK (ca. 50%) EGG LAYING BY OW FEMALES; 1st ADULT EMERGE 1st GEN 2 8 89.60 68.00 0.00 28.61 544.3 2 9 84.90 64.40 0.00 24.65 569.0 1st EGG LAYING BY 1st GEN FEMALES 2 10 87.80 60.80 0.00 24.30 593.3 2 11 87.80 66.00 0.00 26.90 620.2 2 12 88.00 66.00 0.00 27.00 647.2 2 13 87.10 66.20 0.00 26.65 673.8 2 14 84.90 66.00 0.00 25.45 699.3 2 15 84.20 64.90 0.00 24.55 723.8 2 16 82.90 57.20 0.00 20.05 743.9 2 17 84.20 53.60 0.00 18.90 762.8 PEAK ADULT EMERGE 1st GEN 2 18 88.00 59.00 0.00 23.50 786.3 2 19 87.10 60.10 0.00 23.60 809.9 2 20 90.00 69.80 0.00 29.63 839.5 2 21 88.00 66.00 0.00 27.00 866.5 2 22 86.00 64.00 0.00 25.00 891.5 2 23 86.00 62.60 0.00 24.30 915.8 2 24 89.60 60.80 0.00 25.04 940.9 2 25 86.00 60.80 0.02 23.40 964.3 2 26 84.90 62.10 0.16 23.50 987.8 2 27 88.00 64.00 0.00 26.00 1013.8 PEAK EGG LAYING BY 1st GEN FEMALES; MAX 2+ GENS. 2 28 87.80 60.10 0.00 23.95 1037.7 3 1 84.90 66.00 0.00 25.45 1063.2 3 2 86.00 64.00 0.00 25.00 1088.2 3 3 81.00 51.10 0.00 16.05 1104.2 3 4 79.00 42.10 0.00 12.14 1116.4 3 5 79.00 42.80 0.00 12.29 1128.6 3 6 78.80 44.60 0.00 12.63 1141.3 3 7 79.00 59.00 0.02 19.00 1160.3 3 8 70.00 48.20 0.00 9.32 1169.6 3 9 75.00 42.10 0.00 10.24 1179.8 3 10 77.00 42.80 0.35 11.33 1191.2 3 11 81.00 64.00 0.09 22.50 1213.7 3 12 75.20 54.00 0.01 14.60 1228.3 3 13 70.00 44.10 0.00 8.27 1236.5 3 14 72.00 41.00 0.00 8.62 1245.2 3 15 75.00 37.00 0.00 9.35 1254.5 PEAK ADULT EMERGE 2nd GEN; MAX 3+ GENS. 3 16 79.00 37.00 0.00 11.18 1265.7 3 17 81.00 46.90 0.00 14.35 1280.0 3 18 84.90 51.10 0.00 18.00 1298.0 3 19 84.20 60.10 0.00 22.15 1320.2 3 20 84.90 70.00 0.15 27.45 1347.6 3 21 73.90 57.20 0.00 15.55 1363.2 3 22 73.40 51.10 0.00 12.25 1375.4 3 23 79.00 41.00 0.00 11.91 1387.3 3 24 82.40 45.00 0.00 14.49 1401.8 3 25 81.00 53.10 0.00 17.05 1418.9 3 26 90.00 55.00 0.00 22.30 1441.2 3 27 84.20 57.00 0.00 20.60 1461.8 3 28 86.00 53.10 0.00 19.55 1481.3 3 29 89.60 59.00 0.00 24.14 1505.5 PEAK EGG LAYING BY 2nd GEN FEMALES; MAX 4+ GENS. 3 30 86.00 57.20 0.00 21.60 1527.1 3 31 75.90 66.20 0.00 21.05 1548.1 4 1 89.60 64.00 0.01 26.63 1574.7 4 2 88.00 66.20 0.00 27.10 1601.8 4 3 89.60 62.60 0.00 25.93 1627.8 4 4 88.00 59.00 0.00 23.50 1651.3 4 5 89.60 63.00 0.00 26.13 1677.4 4 6 90.00 57.20 0.00 23.39 1700.8 4 7 87.80 62.60 0.01 25.20 1726.0 4 8 87.80 66.20 0.01 27.00 1753.0 PEAK ADULT EMERGE 3rd GEN; MAX 5 GENS. 4 9 90.00 69.80 0.00 29.63 1782.6 4 10 89.60 69.10 0.55 29.16 1811.8 4 11 84.20 62.10 0.00 23.15 1834.9 4 12 87.80 55.00 0.00 21.40 1856.3 4 13 89.60 62.10 0.00 25.69 1882.0 4 14 91.90 57.20 0.00 23.99 1906.0 4 15 91.90 66.90 0.57 28.74 1934.7 4 16 75.20 60.10 0.00 17.65 1952.4 4 17 84.90 51.80 0.00 18.35 1970.7 4 18 90.00 50.00 0.00 19.81 1990.6 PEAK EGG LAYING BY 3rd GEN FEMALES; MAX 6+ GENS. 4 19 84.90 59.00 0.00 21.95 2012.5 4 20 88.00 55.00 0.00 21.50 2034.0 4 21 91.90 64.40 0.00 27.52 2061.5 4 22 91.90 69.10 0.00 29.80 2091.3 4 23 89.60 66.20 0.00 27.72 2119.1 4 24 86.00 68.00 0.00 27.00 2146.1 4 25 84.20 60.80 0.00 22.50 2168.6 4 26 84.20 55.40 0.00 19.80 2188.4 4 27 88.00 60.10 0.00 24.05 2212.4 4 28 88.00 60.80 0.00 24.40 2236.8 4 29 91.90 60.10 0.00 25.41 2262.2 PEAK ADULT EMERGE 4th GEN; MAX 6+ GENS. 4 30 91.90 60.80 0.00 25.76 2288.0 5 1 91.40 57.20 0.00 23.84 2311.8 5 2 91.90 57.00 0.00 23.89 2335.7 5 3 93.20 57.00 0.00 24.25 2360.0 5 4 93.90 64.00 0.00 27.81 2387.8 5 5 89.60 62.60 0.17 25.93 2413.7 5 6 88.00 69.80 0.00 28.90 2442.6 5 7 93.90 71.10 0.00 31.19 2473.8 5 8 93.20 62.10 0.00 26.73 2500.5 PEAK EGG LAYING BY 4th GEN FEMALES; MAX 7+ GENS. 5 9 95.00 59.00 0.00 25.66 2526.2 5 10 90.00 60.80 0.00 25.18 2551.4 5 11 93.90 60.80 0.00 26.27 2577.6 5 12 87.80 66.20 0.00 27.00 2604.6 5 13 84.20 64.40 2.27 24.30 2628.9 5 14 82.90 71.10 0.31 27.00 2655.9 5 15 90.00 71.10 1.35 30.27 2686.2 5 16 89.60 69.10 0.15 29.16 2715.4 5 17 80.10 69.80 1.22 24.95 2740.3 PEAK ADULT EMERGE 5th GEN; MAX 8+ GENS. 5 18 89.60 68.00 0.00 28.61 2768.9 5 19 87.80 69.10 1.39 28.45 2797.4 5 20 81.00 71.10 0.49 26.05 2823.4 5 21 86.00 71.60 0.05 28.80 2852.2 5 22 84.20 71.60 0.67 27.90 2880.1 5 23 91.90 69.10 0.12 29.80 2909.9 5 24 90.00 71.10 0.28 30.27 2940.2 5 25 84.20 73.00 2.79 28.60 2968.8 5 26 78.80 69.10 0.46 23.95 2992.8 PEAK EGG LAYING BY 5th GEN FEMALES; MAX 9+ GENS. 5 27 84.90 71.60 1.21 28.25 3021.0 5 28 86.00 75.90 0.00 30.95 3052.0 5 29 84.20 73.00 2.66 28.60 3080.6 5 30 84.90 73.00 0.15 28.95 3109.5 5 31 87.80 73.40 0.24 30.60 3140.1 6 1 91.00 73.00 0.00 31.47 3171.6 6 2 89.60 73.40 0.02 31.28 3202.9 6 3 91.40 78.10 0.00 34.00 3236.9 6 4 91.90 80.10 0.00 35.01 3271.9 6 5 91.40 80.10 0.00 34.93 3306.8 6 6 91.00 75.00 0.10 32.44 3339.2 6 7 90.00 69.10 1.73 29.28 3368.5 6 8 91.40 71.10 0.11 30.65 3399.2 6 9 95.00 71.60 0.00 31.62 3430.8 6 10 93.20 75.00 0.01 32.88 3463.7 6 11 91.90 73.40 0.05 31.87 3495.5 6 12 93.20 71.10 0.00 31.05 3526.6 6 13 93.20 73.00 0.36 31.95 3558.6 6 14 91.40 73.00 0.00 31.57 3590.1 6 15 93.00 75.20 0.09 32.94 3623.1 6 16 93.00 73.40 0.00 32.10 3655.2 6 17 93.90 75.20 0.00 33.09 3688.3 6 18 96.10 77.00 0.02 34.20 3722.5 6 19 95.00 73.40 0.00 32.45 3754.9 6 20 93.90 75.00 0.00 33.00 3787.9 6 21 93.20 78.10 0.00 34.30 3822.2 6 22 93.90 77.00 0.00 33.91 3856.1 6 23 95.00 77.00 0.04 34.06 3890.2 6 24 93.20 75.00 0.32 32.88 3923.1 6 25 91.90 73.40 0.27 31.87 3954.9 6 26 94.20 73.40 0.00 32.32 3987.3 Px 6 27 90.20 70.20 0.00 29.89 4017.1 PnHx 6 28 92.40 74.80 0.00 32.64 4049.8 Px Pn 6 29 84.90 78.80 0.61 31.85 4081.6 6 30 89.60 75.20 0.34 32.17 4113.8 7 1 93.20 77.00 0.00 33.80 4147.6 7 2 95.00 73.40 0.39 32.45 4180.1 7 3 96.80 75.00 0.10 33.42 4213.5 7 4 93.90 71.60 1.13 31.42 4244.9 7 5 93.20 71.60 1.41 31.29 4276.2 7 6 93.00 73.00 0.05 31.91 4308.1 7 7 93.90 75.00 0.01 33.00 4341.1 7 8 95.00 73.40 0.00 32.45 4373.5 7 9 95.00 77.00 0.00 34.06 4407.6 7 10 91.90 77.00 0.05 33.58 4441.2 7 11 95.00 75.20 0.77 33.26 4474.4 7 12 91.90 75.00 0.01 32.64 4507.1 7 13 91.90 75.00 1.22 32.64 4539.7 7 14 93.20 75.20 7.33 32.98 4572.7 7 15 91.40 73.00 0.00 31.57 4604.3 7 16 95.00 75.00 0.07 33.17 4637.4 7 17 93.20 78.80 0.00 34.62 4672.1 7 18 91.90 78.80 0.00 34.42 4706.5 7 19 91.40 78.10 0.13 34.00 4740.5 7 20 91.90 78.10 0.17 34.09 4774.6 7 21 89.10 75.00 0.68 31.92 4806.5 7 22 93.20 78.10 0.30 34.30 4840.8 7 23 91.90 73.00 0.38 31.68 4872.5 7 24 91.90 77.00 0.11 33.58 4906.0 7 25 91.90 77.00 0.04 33.58 4939.6 7 26 93.00 78.80 0.00 34.59 4974.2 7 27 95.00 78.10 0.00 34.55 5008.8 7 28 96.80 75.20 0.00 33.50 5042.3 7 29 90.00 73.40 0.09 31.40 5073.7 7 30 91.90 73.40 1.71 31.87 5105.5 7 31 90.00 75.00 0.44 32.19 5137.7 8 1 93.20 77.00 0.39 33.80 5171.5 8 2 95.00 75.20 0.93 33.26 5204.8 8 3 93.20 75.00 1.06 32.88 5237.7 8 4 93.90 77.00 0.71 33.91 5271.6 8 5 95.00 77.00 0.07 34.06 5305.7 8 6 93.20 75.20 0.09 32.98 5338.6 8 7 95.00 75.20 0.13 33.26 5371.9 8 8 93.20 75.20 0.09 32.98 5404.9 8 9 93.90 75.00 0.00 33.00 5437.9 8 10 93.20 71.60 0.55 31.29 5469.2 8 11 89.60 75.00 0.33 32.07 5501.2 8 12 87.10 78.80 0.15 32.95 5534.2
DD accumulation on 8-12-18: 5534QA 99% ok    
  
This year is about  versus  QA
 2 days ahead 2017 ok
 7 days ahead 2016 ok
 9 days ahead 30-yr normal ok
Forecast using: NWS NDFD 7-day Forecast data
  8 13  90.00 76.00  0.00  32.67   5566.9  Partly_Cloudy_20%_precip    
  8 14  91.00 76.00  0.00  32.92   5599.8  Partly_Cloudy_10%_precip    
  8 15  91.00 76.00  0.00  32.92   5632.7  Partly_Cloudy_20%_precip    
  8 16  91.00 77.00  0.00  33.40   5666.1  Partly_Cloudy_60%_precip    
  8 17  91.00 77.00  0.00  33.40   5699.5  Partly_Cloudy_30%_precip    
  8 18  90.00 76.00  0.00  32.67   5732.2  Partly_Cloudy_50%_precip    
  8 19  90.00 76.00  0.00  32.67   5764.8  Partly_Cloudy_40%_precip    
Forecast using: 10 yr Hist Avg KPGD 2006-2015
  8 20  91.10 75.50  0.28  32.70   5797.5  *hist_fcst*    
  8 21  91.80 75.70  0.23  32.95   5830.5  *hist_fcst*    
  8 22  92.80 75.00  0.48  32.81   5863.3  *hist_fcst*    
  8 23  91.80 75.40  0.28  32.80   5896.1  *hist_fcst*    
  8 24  91.90 75.70  0.21  32.97   5929.1  *hist_fcst*    
  8 25  91.60 74.80  0.42  32.48   5961.5  *hist_fcst*    
  8 26  91.00 75.40  0.34  32.63   5994.2  *hist_fcst*    
  8 27  90.70 75.10  0.45  32.41   6026.6  *hist_fcst*    
  8 28  89.90 75.70  0.32  32.50   6059.1  *hist_fcst*    
  8 29  91.20 75.60  0.22  32.77   6091.9  *hist_fcst*    
  8 30  90.90 75.80  0.28  32.80   6124.7  *hist_fcst*    
  8 31  88.80 75.40  0.59  32.02   6156.7  *hist_fcst*    
  9  1  89.30 75.50  0.23  32.23   6188.9  *hist_fcst*    
  9  2  91.50 74.40  0.19  32.26   6221.2  *hist_fcst*    
  9  3  90.80 73.70  0.33  31.76   6252.9  *hist_fcst*    
  9  4  90.50 74.90  0.12  32.27   6285.2  *hist_fcst*    
  9  5  90.90 74.90  0.12  32.37   6317.6  *hist_fcst*    
  9  6  90.20 74.20  0.22  31.85   6349.4  *hist_fcst*    
  9  7  90.50 73.80  0.43  31.73   6381.1  *hist_fcst*    
  9  8  90.20 74.20  0.24  31.85   6413.0  *hist_fcst*    
  9  9  90.80 75.30  0.15  32.54   6445.5  *hist_fcst*    
  9 10  90.90 74.80  0.32  32.32   6477.8  *hist_fcst*    
  9 11  90.10 75.00  0.10  32.21   6510.1  *hist_fcst*    
  9 12  91.10 75.00  0.24  32.46   6542.5  *hist_fcst*    
  9 13  90.10 74.10  0.23  31.77   6574.3  *hist_fcst*    
  9 14  89.90 74.30  0.19  31.82   6606.1  *hist_fcst*    
  9 15  91.10 73.80  0.04  31.88   6638.0  *hist_fcst*    
spotted wing Drosophila model - OSU IPPC model analysis vers. 3.0
Location: 2018 KPGD Punta Gorda Charlotte
DD accumulation on 8-12-18: 5534 QA 99% ok  - show details 
  
This year is about  versus  QA
 2 days ahead 2017 ok
 7 days ahead 2016 ok
 9 days ahead 30-yr normal ok
DateDDsEvent
 1-23-18 2681st EGG LAYING BY OW FEMALES
 2-7-18 516PEAK (ca. 50%) EGG LAYING BY OW FEMALES; 1st ADULT EMERGE 1st GEN
 2-9-18 5691st EGG LAYING BY 1st GEN FEMALES
 2-17-18 763PEAK ADULT EMERGE 1st GEN
 2-27-18 1014PEAK EGG LAYING BY 1st GEN FEMALES; MAX 2+ GENS.
 3-15-18 1255PEAK ADULT EMERGE 2nd GEN; MAX 3+ GENS.
 3-29-18 1505PEAK EGG LAYING BY 2nd GEN FEMALES; MAX 4+ GENS.
 4-8-18 1753PEAK ADULT EMERGE 3rd GEN; MAX 5 GENS.
 4-18-18 1991PEAK EGG LAYING BY 3rd GEN FEMALES; MAX 6+ GENS.
 4-29-18 2262PEAK ADULT EMERGE 4th GEN; MAX 6+ GENS.
 5-8-18 2501PEAK EGG LAYING BY 4th GEN FEMALES; MAX 7+ GENS.
 5-17-18 2740PEAK ADULT EMERGE 5th GEN; MAX 8+ GENS.
 5-26-18 2993PEAK EGG LAYING BY 5th GEN FEMALES; MAX 9+ GENS.
degree-day graph of spotted wing Drosophila [fruit] OSU IPPC model analysis vers. 3.0