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invasive insect model of OSU OIPMC model analysis vers. 3.0 |
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Output from uspest.org/wea invasive insect degree-day/phenology model program: Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================ Model species/general links: spotted wing Drosophila [fruit] Type: invasive insect Model source/other links: OSU OIPMC model analysis vers. 3.0 Calculation method: single sine Lower threshold: 50 degrees Fahrenheit Upper threshold: 88 degrees Fahrenheit Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1 Ending date: 9 15 Model validation status: partly validated-has been compared to 2 years of field data in PNW Region of known use: potential for use in US ==============================EVENTS TABLE================================ 1. 261 DDs after Jan 1: 1st egg laying by ow females 2. 510 DDs after Jan 1: Peak (ca. 50%) egg laying by ow females; 1st adult emerge 1st gen 3. 565 DDs after Jan 1: 1st egg laying by 1st gen females 4. 755 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 1st gen 5. 995 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 1st gen females; max 2+ gens. 6. 1249 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 2nd gen; max 3+ gens. 7. 1489 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 2nd gen females; max 4+ gens. 8. 1743 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 3rd gen; max 5 gens. 9. 1983 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 3rd gen females; max 6+ gens. 10. 2237 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 4th gen; max 6+ gens. 11. 2477 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 4th gen females; max 7+ gens. 12. 2731 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 5th gen; max 8+ gens. 13. 2971 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 5th gen females; max 9+ gens. ==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================ Weather station: 2018 KPGD METAR Punta Gorda Charlotte FL Lat:26.9178 Long:-81.9933 Elev:23 mn day max min precip DD50 CUMDD50 event -- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- ------- 1 1 71.60 46.90 0.01 9.72 9.7 * START * 1 2 61.00 44.60 0.00 4.16 13.9 1 3 60.80 43.00 0.07 3.85 17.7 1 4 60.80 32.00 0.00 2.93 20.7 1 5 62.60 35.10 0.00 3.82 24.5 1 6 66.20 37.40 0.00 5.52 30.0 1 7 73.40 37.00 0.00 8.63 38.6 1 8 75.20 50.00 0.14 12.60 51.2 1 9 81.00 60.10 1.07 20.55 71.8 1 10 82.40 60.10 0.00 21.25 93.0 1 11 82.90 62.10 0.00 22.50 115.5 1 12 82.40 60.80 0.00 21.60 137.1 1 13 71.10 48.00 0.00 9.80 146.9 1 14 66.00 39.00 0.00 5.62 152.6 1 15 73.40 44.10 0.00 9.90 162.4 1 16 77.00 48.00 0.00 12.72 175.2 1 17 73.90 44.10 0.00 10.14 185.3 1 18 60.10 30.00 0.00 2.58 187.9 1 19 70.00 37.00 0.00 7.12 195.0 1 20 75.20 48.00 0.00 11.83 206.8 1 21 81.00 57.00 0.00 19.00 225.8 1 22 84.90 55.40 0.00 20.15 246.0 1 23 81.00 63.00 0.01 22.00 268.0 1st egg laying by ow females 1 24 79.00 53.60 0.00 16.30 284.3 1 25 75.90 48.20 0.00 12.25 296.5 1 26 79.00 53.10 0.00 16.05 312.6 1 27 79.00 55.40 0.00 17.20 329.8 1 28 82.40 62.60 1.76 22.50 352.3 1 29 79.00 59.00 2.64 19.00 371.3 1 30 68.00 44.10 0.00 7.33 378.6 1 31 73.90 41.00 0.00 9.51 388.1 2 1 79.00 46.40 0.00 13.21 401.3 2 2 82.40 52.00 0.00 17.20 418.5 2 3 75.90 57.00 0.00 16.45 435.0 2 4 82.90 55.00 0.66 18.95 453.9 2 5 77.00 57.90 0.00 17.45 471.4 2 6 86.00 57.00 0.00 21.50 492.9 2 7 84.90 60.80 0.00 22.85 515.7 Peak (ca. 50%) egg laying by ow females; 1st adult emerge 1st gen 2 8 89.60 68.00 0.00 28.61 544.3 2 9 84.90 64.40 0.00 24.65 569.0 1st egg laying by 1st gen females 2 10 87.80 60.80 0.00 24.30 593.3 2 11 87.80 66.00 0.00 26.90 620.2 2 12 88.00 66.00 0.00 27.00 647.2 2 13 87.10 66.20 0.00 26.65 673.8 2 14 84.90 66.00 0.00 25.45 699.3 2 15 84.20 64.90 0.00 24.55 723.8 2 16 82.90 57.20 0.00 20.05 743.9 2 17 84.20 53.60 0.00 18.90 762.8 Peak adult emerge 1st gen 2 18 88.00 59.00 0.00 23.50 786.3 2 19 87.10 60.10 0.00 23.60 809.9 2 20 90.00 69.80 0.00 29.63 839.5 2 21 88.00 66.00 0.00 27.00 866.5 2 22 86.00 64.00 0.00 25.00 891.5 2 23 86.00 62.60 0.00 24.30 915.8 2 24 89.60 60.80 0.00 25.04 940.9 2 25 86.00 60.80 0.02 23.40 964.3 2 26 84.90 62.10 0.16 23.50 987.8 2 27 88.00 64.00 0.00 26.00 1013.8 Peak egg laying by 1st gen females; max 2+ gens. 2 28 87.80 60.10 0.00 23.95 1037.7 3 1 84.90 66.00 0.00 25.45 1063.2 3 2 86.00 64.00 0.00 25.00 1088.2 3 3 81.00 51.10 0.00 16.05 1104.2 3 4 79.00 42.10 0.00 12.14 1116.4 3 5 79.00 42.80 0.00 12.29 1128.6 3 6 78.80 44.60 0.00 12.63 1141.3 3 7 79.00 59.00 0.02 19.00 1160.3 3 8 70.00 48.20 0.00 9.32 1169.6 3 9 75.00 42.10 0.00 10.24 1179.8 3 10 77.00 42.80 0.35 11.33 1191.2 3 11 81.00 64.00 0.09 22.50 1213.7 3 12 75.20 54.00 0.01 14.60 1228.3 3 13 70.00 44.10 0.00 8.27 1236.5 3 14 72.00 41.00 0.00 8.62 1245.2 3 15 75.00 37.00 0.00 9.35 1254.5 Peak adult emerge 2nd gen; max 3+ gens. 3 16 79.00 37.00 0.00 11.18 1265.7 3 17 81.00 46.90 0.00 14.35 1280.0 3 18 84.90 51.10 0.00 18.00 1298.0 3 19 84.20 60.10 0.00 22.15 1320.2 3 20 84.90 70.00 0.15 27.45 1347.6 3 21 73.90 57.20 0.00 15.55 1363.2 3 22 73.40 51.10 0.00 12.25 1375.4 3 23 79.00 41.00 0.00 11.91 1387.3 3 24 82.40 45.00 0.00 14.49 1401.8 3 25 81.00 53.10 0.00 17.05 1418.9 3 26 90.00 55.00 0.00 22.30 1441.2 3 27 84.20 57.00 0.00 20.60 1461.8 3 28 86.00 53.10 0.00 19.55 1481.3 3 29 89.60 59.00 0.00 24.14 1505.5 Peak egg laying by 2nd gen females; max 4+ gens. 3 30 86.00 57.20 0.00 21.60 1527.1 3 31 75.90 66.20 0.00 21.05 1548.1 4 1 89.60 64.00 0.01 26.63 1574.7 4 2 88.00 66.20 0.00 27.10 1601.8 4 3 89.60 62.60 0.00 25.93 1627.8 4 4 88.00 59.00 0.00 23.50 1651.3 4 5 89.60 63.00 0.00 26.13 1677.4 4 6 90.00 57.20 0.00 23.39 1700.8 4 7 87.80 62.60 0.01 25.20 1726.0 4 8 87.80 66.20 0.01 27.00 1753.0 Peak adult emerge 3rd gen; max 5 gens. 4 9 90.00 69.80 0.00 29.63 1782.6 4 10 89.60 69.10 0.55 29.16 1811.8 4 11 84.20 62.10 0.00 23.15 1834.9 4 12 87.80 55.00 0.00 21.40 1856.3 4 13 89.60 62.10 0.00 25.69 1882.0 4 14 91.90 57.20 0.00 23.99 1906.0 4 15 91.90 66.90 0.57 28.74 1934.7 4 16 75.20 60.10 0.00 17.65 1952.4 4 17 84.90 51.80 0.00 18.35 1970.7 4 18 90.00 50.00 0.00 19.81 1990.6 Peak egg laying by 3rd gen females; max 6+ gens. 4 19 84.90 59.00 0.00 21.95 2012.5 4 20 88.00 55.00 0.00 21.50 2034.0 4 21 91.90 64.40 0.00 27.52 2061.5 4 22 91.90 69.10 0.00 29.80 2091.3 4 23 89.60 66.20 0.00 27.72 2119.1 4 24 86.00 68.00 0.00 27.00 2146.1 4 25 84.20 60.80 0.00 22.50 2168.6 4 26 84.20 55.40 0.00 19.80 2188.4 4 27 88.00 60.10 0.00 24.05 2212.4 4 28 88.00 60.80 0.00 24.40 2236.8 4 29 91.90 60.10 0.00 25.41 2262.2 Peak adult emerge 4th gen; max 6+ gens. 4 30 91.90 60.80 0.00 25.76 2288.0 5 1 91.40 57.20 0.00 23.84 2311.8 5 2 91.90 57.00 0.00 23.89 2335.7 5 3 93.20 57.00 0.00 24.25 2360.0 5 4 93.90 64.00 0.00 27.81 2387.8 5 5 89.60 62.60 0.17 25.93 2413.7 5 6 88.00 69.80 0.00 28.90 2442.6 5 7 93.90 71.10 0.00 31.19 2473.8 5 8 93.20 62.10 0.00 26.73 2500.5 Peak egg laying by 4th gen females; max 7+ gens. 5 9 95.00 59.00 0.00 25.66 2526.2 5 10 90.00 60.80 0.00 25.18 2551.4 5 11 93.90 60.80 0.00 26.27 2577.6 5 12 87.80 66.20 0.00 27.00 2604.6 5 13 84.20 64.40 2.27 24.30 2628.9 5 14 82.90 71.10 0.31 27.00 2655.9 5 15 90.00 71.10 1.35 30.27 2686.2 5 16 89.60 69.10 0.15 29.16 2715.4 5 17 80.10 69.80 1.22 24.95 2740.3 Peak adult emerge 5th gen; max 8+ gens. 5 18 89.60 68.00 0.00 28.61 2768.9 5 19 87.80 69.10 1.39 28.45 2797.4 5 20 81.00 71.10 0.49 26.05 2823.4 5 21 86.00 71.60 0.05 28.80 2852.2 5 22 84.20 71.60 0.67 27.90 2880.1 5 23 91.90 69.10 0.12 29.80 2909.9 5 24 90.00 71.10 0.28 30.27 2940.2 5 25 84.20 73.00 2.79 28.60 2968.8 5 26 78.80 69.10 0.46 23.95 2992.8 Peak egg laying by 5th gen females; max 9+ gens. 5 27 84.90 71.60 1.21 28.25 3021.0 5 28 86.00 75.90 0.00 30.95 3052.0 5 29 84.20 73.00 2.66 28.60 3080.6 5 30 84.90 73.00 0.15 28.95 3109.5 5 31 87.80 73.40 0.24 30.60 3140.1 6 1 91.00 73.00 0.00 31.47 3171.6 6 2 89.60 73.40 0.02 31.28 3202.9 6 3 91.40 78.10 0.00 34.00 3236.9 6 4 91.90 80.10 0.00 35.01 3271.9 6 5 91.40 80.10 0.00 34.93 3306.8 6 6 91.00 75.00 0.10 32.44 3339.2 6 7 90.00 69.10 1.73 29.28 3368.5 6 8 91.40 71.10 0.11 30.65 3399.2 6 9 95.00 71.60 0.00 31.62 3430.8 6 10 93.20 75.00 0.01 32.88 3463.7 6 11 91.90 73.40 0.05 31.87 3495.5 6 12 93.20 71.10 0.00 31.05 3526.6 6 13 93.20 73.00 0.36 31.95 3558.6 6 14 91.40 73.00 0.00 31.57 3590.1 6 15 93.00 75.20 0.09 32.94 3623.1 6 16 93.00 73.40 0.00 32.10 3655.2 6 17 93.90 75.20 0.00 33.09 3688.3 6 18 96.10 77.00 0.02 34.20 3722.5 6 19 95.00 73.40 0.00 32.45 3754.9 6 20 93.90 75.00 0.00 33.00 3787.9 6 21 93.20 78.10 0.00 34.30 3822.2 6 22 93.90 77.00 0.00 33.91 3856.1 6 23 95.00 77.00 0.04 34.06 3890.2 6 24 93.20 75.00 0.32 32.88 3923.1 6 25 91.90 73.40 0.27 31.87 3954.9 6 26 94.20 73.40 0.00 32.32 3987.3 Px 6 27 90.20 70.20 0.00 29.89 4017.1 PnHx 6 28 92.40 74.80 0.00 32.64 4049.8 Px Pn 6 29 84.90 78.80 0.61 31.85 4081.6 6 30 89.60 75.20 0.34 32.17 4113.8 7 1 93.20 77.00 0.00 33.80 4147.6 7 2 95.00 73.40 0.39 32.45 4180.1 7 3 96.80 75.00 0.10 33.42 4213.5 7 4 93.90 71.60 1.13 31.42 4244.9 7 5 93.20 71.60 1.41 31.29 4276.2 7 6 93.00 73.00 0.05 31.91 4308.1 7 7 93.90 75.00 0.01 33.00 4341.1 7 8 95.00 73.40 0.00 32.45 4373.5 7 9 95.00 77.00 0.00 34.06 4407.6 7 10 91.90 77.00 0.05 33.58 4441.2 7 11 95.00 75.20 0.77 33.26 4474.4 7 12 91.90 75.00 0.01 32.64 4507.1 7 13 91.90 75.00 1.22 32.64 4539.7 7 14 93.20 75.20 7.33 32.98 4572.7 7 15 91.40 73.00 0.00 31.57 4604.3 7 16 95.00 75.00 0.07 33.17 4637.4 7 17 93.20 78.80 0.00 34.62 4672.1 7 18 91.90 78.80 0.00 34.42 4706.5 7 19 91.40 78.10 0.13 34.00 4740.5 7 20 91.90 78.10 0.17 34.09 4774.6 7 21 89.10 75.00 0.68 31.92 4806.5 7 22 93.20 78.10 0.30 34.30 4840.8 7 23 91.90 73.00 0.38 31.68 4872.5 7 24 91.90 77.00 0.11 33.58 4906.0 7 25 91.90 77.00 0.04 33.58 4939.6 7 26 93.00 78.80 0.00 34.59 4974.2 7 27 95.00 78.10 0.00 34.55 5008.8 7 28 96.80 75.20 0.00 33.50 5042.3 7 29 90.00 73.40 0.09 31.40 5073.7 7 30 91.90 73.40 1.71 31.87 5105.5 7 31 90.00 75.00 0.44 32.19 5137.7 8 1 93.20 77.00 0.39 33.80 5171.5 8 2 95.00 75.20 0.93 33.26 5204.8 8 3 93.20 75.00 1.06 32.88 5237.7 8 4 93.90 77.00 0.71 33.91 5271.6 8 5 95.00 77.00 0.07 34.06 5305.7 8 6 93.20 75.20 0.09 32.98 5338.6 8 7 95.00 75.20 0.13 33.26 5371.9 8 8 93.20 75.20 0.09 32.98 5404.9 8 9 93.90 75.00 0.00 33.00 5437.9 8 10 93.20 71.60 0.55 31.29 5469.2 8 11 89.60 75.00 0.33 32.07 5501.2 8 12 84.90 78.10 0.03 31.50 5532.7 8 13 91.40 75.20 0.02 32.62 5565.4 8 14 93.90 73.00 1.09 32.08 5597.4 8 15 93.90 73.40 0.74 32.26 5629.7 8 16 96.80 75.00 7.34 33.42 5663.1 8 17 95.00 75.20 0.04 33.26 5696.4 8 18 95.00 73.40 0.52 32.45 5728.8 8 19 93.90 75.00 0.03 33.00 5761.8 8 20 91.90 75.00 0.70 32.64 5794.5 8 21 93.90 75.00 0.00 33.00 5827.5 8 22 93.90 77.00 0.02 33.91 5861.4 8 23 89.60 78.10 0.01 33.59 5895.0 8 24 93.90 73.00 1.77 32.08 5927.0 8 25 93.90 73.40 0.72 32.26 5959.3 8 26 93.00 73.40 1.06 32.10 5991.4 8 27 93.20 75.20 0.16 32.98 6024.4 8 28 93.20 75.00 0.44 32.88 6057.3 8 29 91.40 73.00 0.09 31.57 6088.8 8 30 91.40 73.00 0.59 31.57 6120.4 8 31 91.90 75.00 0.02 32.64 6153.0 9 1 93.90 77.00 0.00 33.91 6186.9 9 2 91.90 75.00 0.00 32.64 6219.6 9 3 78.80 75.00 0.36 26.90 6246.5 9 4 93.20 77.00 0.10 33.80 6280.3 9 5 95.00 77.00 0.00 34.06 6314.4 9 6 93.90 75.20 0.01 33.09 6347.4 9 7 91.40 75.00 1.24 32.53 6380.0 9 8 90.00 73.00 0.00 31.21 6411.2 9 9 91.40 73.00 0.04 31.57 6442.7 9 10 91.40 75.20 0.00 32.62 6475.4 9 11 93.90 77.00 0.19 33.91 6509.3 9 12 95.00 77.00 2.20 34.06 6543.3 9 13 93.20 73.00 0.62 31.95 6575.3 9 14 91.90 75.20 0.00 32.73 6608.0 9 15 91.90 80.10 0.00 35.01 6643.0 Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 KPGD PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021