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invasive insect model of OSU OIPMC model analysis vers. 3.0 |
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Output from uspest.org/wea invasive insect degree-day/phenology model program: Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================ Model species/general links: spotted wing Drosophila [fruit] Type: invasive insect Model source/other links: OSU OIPMC model analysis vers. 3.0 Calculation method: single sine Lower threshold: 50 degrees Fahrenheit Upper threshold: 88 degrees Fahrenheit Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1 Ending date: 9 15 Model validation status: partly validated-has been compared to 2 years of field data in PNW Region of known use: potential for use in US ==============================EVENTS TABLE================================ 1. 261 DDs after Jan 1: 1st egg laying by ow females 2. 510 DDs after Jan 1: Peak (ca. 50%) egg laying by ow females; 1st adult emerge 1st gen 3. 565 DDs after Jan 1: 1st egg laying by 1st gen females 4. 755 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 1st gen 5. 995 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 1st gen females; max 2+ gens. 6. 1249 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 2nd gen; max 3+ gens. 7. 1489 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 2nd gen females; max 4+ gens. 8. 1743 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 3rd gen; max 5 gens. 9. 1983 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 3rd gen females; max 6+ gens. 10. 2237 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 4th gen; max 6+ gens. 11. 2477 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 4th gen females; max 7+ gens. 12. 2731 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 5th gen; max 8+ gens. 13. 2971 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 5th gen females; max 9+ gens. ==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================ Weather station: 2018 KPDC METAR Prairie Du Chien Muni WI Lat:43.0192 Long:-91.1208 Elev:659 mn day max min precip DD50 CUMDD50 event -- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- ------- 1 1 1.20 -17.70 0.00 0.00 0.0 * START * 1 2 14.00 -14.80 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 3 15.80 -4.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 4 7.30 -11.60 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 5 8.60 -12.80 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 6 11.70 -14.10 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 7 32.90 10.20 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 8 39.40 23.20 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 9 39.70 23.70 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 10 43.00 32.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 11 47.70 9.70 0.01 0.00 0.0 1 12 12.60 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 13 10.20 -4.90 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 14 20.80 -6.30 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 15 21.20 3.90 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 16 15.60 -2.70 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 17 23.00 -6.20 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 18 35.10 16.50 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 19 44.60 22.80 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 20 49.30 25.30 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 21 38.50 25.20 0.47 0.00 0.0 1 22 38.50 33.10 0.48 0.00 0.0 1 23 33.60 23.90 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 24 28.90 19.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 25 39.70 21.70 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 26 51.80 32.00 0.00 0.23 0.2 1 27 45.90 29.30 0.00 0.00 0.2 1 28 30.60 20.10 0.00 0.00 0.2 1 29 25.70 11.80 0.00 0.00 0.2 1 30 32.20 6.40 0.00 0.00 0.2 1 31 41.70 30.20 0.00 0.00 0.2 2 1 34.70 3.40 0.00 0.00 0.2 2 2 20.70 -0.80 0.00 0.00 0.2 2 3 33.40 20.10 0.00 0.00 0.2 2 4 26.60 -4.50 0.00 0.00 0.2 2 5 12.20 -12.50 0.00 0.00 0.2 2 6 14.00 -9.20 0.00 0.00 0.2 2 7 15.60 0.70 0.00 0.00 0.2 2 8 19.80 2.80 0.02 0.00 0.2 2 9 19.20 7.00 0.00 0.00 0.2 2 10 16.30 5.90 0.00 0.00 0.2 2 11 18.30 3.70 0.00 0.00 0.2 2 12 18.00 -4.90 0.00 0.00 0.2 2 13 33.10 3.00 0.00 0.00 0.2 2 14 45.50 19.20 0.22 0.00 0.2 2 15 42.40 32.00 0.00 0.00 0.2 2 16 33.80 14.00 0.00 0.00 0.2 2 17 31.10 13.30 0.03 0.00 0.2 2 18 41.00 14.20 0.00 0.00 0.2 2 19 41.00 34.70 0.50 0.00 0.2 2 20 35.40 19.40 0.05 0.00 0.2 2 21 26.80 13.50 0.00 0.00 0.2 2 22 33.80 22.60 0.15 0.00 0.2 2 23 35.10 25.20 0.27 0.00 0.2 2 24 35.20 22.10 0.35 0.00 0.2 2 25 36.90 21.70 0.03 0.00 0.2 2 26 50.00 22.50 0.00 0.00 0.2 2 27 59.40 34.50 0.00 2.56 2.8 2 28 52.00 30.00 0.00 0.26 3.0 3 1 48.60 29.70 0.00 0.00 3.0 3 2 46.40 22.10 0.00 0.00 3.0 3 3 48.70 32.20 0.00 0.00 3.0 3 4 48.40 32.90 0.00 0.00 3.0 3 5 39.20 28.90 0.03 0.00 3.0 3 6 36.30 28.40 0.17 0.00 3.0 3 7 31.10 15.60 0.00 0.00 3.0 3 8 31.10 11.50 0.00 0.00 3.0 3 9 36.00 13.80 0.00 0.00 3.0 3 10 40.10 18.00 0.00 0.00 3.0 3 11 43.20 30.00 0.00 0.00 3.0 3 12 41.70 28.00 0.00 0.00 3.0 3 13 37.60 23.40 0.00 0.00 3.0 3 14 49.30 21.20 0.00 0.00 3.0 3 15 47.30 24.40 0.00 0.00 3.0 3 16 40.80 25.70 0.00 0.00 3.0 3 17 52.50 28.90 0.00 0.35 3.4 3 18 54.70 23.50 0.00 0.79 4.2 3 19 51.80 29.70 0.00 0.22 4.4 3 20 38.50 27.90 0.00 0.00 4.4 3 21 43.90 22.30 0.00 0.00 4.4 3 22 50.00 21.90 0.00 0.00 4.4 3 23 48.00 23.90 0.00 0.00 4.4 3 24 41.20 32.00 0.00 0.00 4.4 3 25 49.30 26.10 0.00 0.00 4.4 3 26 46.90 30.60 0.23 0.00 4.4 3 27 43.90 29.50 0.11 0.00 4.4 3 28 53.40 24.60 0.00 0.50 4.9 3 29 48.60 32.20 0.00 0.00 4.9 3 30 47.10 29.30 0.10 0.00 4.9 3 31 46.40 21.70 0.23 0.00 4.9 4 1 36.00 16.50 0.00 0.00 4.9 4 2 40.30 18.10 0.00 0.00 4.9 4 3 37.60 29.80 0.08 0.00 4.9 4 4 30.20 18.50 0.00 0.00 4.9 4 5 39.40 18.10 0.00 0.00 4.9 4 6 35.60 17.40 0.00 0.00 4.9 4 7 34.90 14.00 0.00 0.00 4.9 4 8 39.40 15.80 0.00 0.00 4.9 4 9 37.20 27.70 0.02 0.00 4.9 4 10 40.10 21.20 0.00 0.00 4.9 4 11 59.00 28.20 0.09 2.13 7.0 4 12 60.10 37.80 0.00 3.04 10.1 4 13 50.20 36.10 0.83 0.01 10.1 4 14 36.50 28.00 0.16 0.00 10.1 4 15 29.10 26.60 0.01 0.00 10.1 4 16 32.70 25.90 0.00 0.00 10.1 4 17 42.60 28.00 0.19 0.00 10.1 4 18 33.10 29.50 0.13 0.00 10.1 4 19 48.40 23.90 0.34 0.00 10.1 4 20 57.20 24.60 0.00 1.47 11.6 4 21 57.60 35.20 0.01 1.95 13.5 4 22 66.20 38.70 0.00 5.67 19.2 4 23 70.00 37.40 0.00 7.17 26.4 4 24 73.40 35.40 0.00 8.41 34.8 4 25 62.10 39.20 0.00 3.98 38.7 4 26 71.60 34.90 0.00 7.56 46.3 4 27 69.60 35.20 0.00 6.73 53.0 4 28 57.20 34.30 0.00 1.77 54.8 4 29 65.70 30.20 0.00 4.66 59.5 4 30 84.80 48.00 0.00 16.60 76.1 Px 5 1 78.80 59.40 0.57 19.10 95.2 5 2 69.80 58.10 0.90 13.95 109.1 5 3 69.40 56.70 1.07 13.05 122.2 5 4 76.10 51.80 0.51 13.95 136.1 5 5 81.50 48.00 0.03 14.96 151.1 5 6 75.00 52.70 0.05 13.85 164.9 5 7 81.90 48.60 0.00 15.37 180.3 5 8 81.00 52.90 1.40 16.95 197.2 5 9 71.80 55.40 2.67 13.60 210.8 5 10 69.30 52.20 0.44 10.75 221.6 5 11 52.70 38.50 0.40 0.51 222.1 5 12 56.80 44.20 0.51 2.26 224.4 5 13 59.00 46.00 0.01 3.47 227.8 5 14 70.70 55.80 0.02 13.25 241.1 5 15 80.10 57.20 0.00 18.65 259.7 5 16 82.40 53.10 0.00 17.75 277.5 1st egg laying by ow females 5 17 82.80 51.80 0.00 17.30 294.8 5 18 81.50 51.60 0.00 16.55 311.3 5 19 79.90 59.50 1.02 19.70 331.0 5 20 60.80 52.20 0.31 6.50 337.5 5 21 59.90 50.50 0.47 5.20 342.7 5 22 73.00 58.10 0.00 15.55 358.3 5 23 80.20 54.50 0.00 17.35 375.6 5 24 86.90 60.60 0.00 23.75 399.4 5 25 85.60 64.00 0.43 24.80 424.2 5 26 89.10 61.90 0.00 25.41 449.6 5 27 93.40 65.30 0.00 28.32 477.9 5 28 92.70 65.50 0.00 28.26 506.2 5 29 89.40 68.00 0.50 28.55 534.7 Peak (ca. 50%) egg laying by ow females; 1st adult emerge 1st gen 5 30 79.50 66.20 0.69 22.85 557.6 5 31 84.40 63.50 0.03 23.95 581.5 1st egg laying by 1st gen females 6 1 87.40 63.70 0.00 25.55 607.1 6 2 70.00 54.70 0.43 12.35 619.4 6 3 71.60 55.40 0.01 13.50 632.9 6 4 84.20 48.20 0.00 16.37 649.3 6 5 82.60 64.40 0.00 23.50 672.8 6 6 78.60 58.10 0.00 18.35 691.1 6 7 82.40 62.20 0.01 22.30 713.4 6 8 72.50 57.70 2.12 15.10 728.5 6 9 81.50 64.00 1.93 22.75 751.3 6 10 68.40 63.90 0.69 16.15 767.4 Peak adult emerge 1st gen 6 11 74.80 62.60 0.00 18.70 786.1 6 12 73.80 65.80 0.09 19.80 805.9 6 13 78.80 60.80 0.10 19.80 825.7 6 14 72.30 58.10 0.00 15.20 840.9 6 15 89.10 64.40 0.00 26.65 867.6 6 16 92.80 71.60 0.00 31.21 898.8 6 17 93.20 77.00 0.00 33.80 932.6 6 18 89.20 71.60 1.01 30.27 962.9 6 19 72.00 64.20 0.27 18.10 981.0 6 20 71.40 65.50 0.59 18.45 999.4 Peak egg laying by 1st gen females; max 2+ gens. 6 21 67.10 60.30 0.25 13.70 1013.1 6 22 76.30 60.40 0.22 18.35 1031.5 6 23 76.60 59.00 0.00 17.80 1049.3 6 24 83.50 60.30 0.00 21.90 1071.2 6 25 82.10 62.80 0.00 22.45 1093.6 Px 6 26 82.40 67.10 0.00 24.75 1118.4 Px Pn 6 27 113.90 57.30 0.00 27.76 1146.1 Px Pn 6 28 82.40 61.80 0.00 22.10 1168.2 Px Pn 6 29 93.20 83.30 0.00 36.55 1204.8 6 30 92.30 68.90 0.97 29.80 1234.6 7 1 83.30 64.40 0.55 23.85 1258.4 Peak adult emerge 2nd gen; max 3+ gens. 7 2 84.00 59.00 0.00 21.50 1279.9 7 3 86.20 65.70 0.00 25.95 1305.9 7 4 91.40 69.60 1.06 29.92 1335.8 7 5 86.00 64.90 0.15 25.45 1361.2 7 6 78.60 59.40 0.00 19.00 1380.2 7 7 79.90 57.00 0.00 18.45 1398.7 7 8 82.80 57.60 0.00 20.20 1418.9 7 9 88.90 62.10 0.00 25.43 1444.3 7 10 84.70 66.90 0.00 25.80 1470.1 7 11 86.00 64.00 0.00 25.00 1495.1 Peak egg laying by 2nd gen females; max 4+ gens. 7 12 90.00 69.30 0.00 29.38 1524.5 7 13 89.10 67.80 1.14 28.34 1552.9 7 14 81.70 69.80 0.36 25.75 1578.6 7 15 86.40 70.00 0.00 28.20 1606.8 7 16 82.40 64.40 0.00 23.40 1630.2 7 17 80.60 61.00 0.00 20.80 1651.0 7 18 81.10 57.70 0.00 19.40 1670.4 7 19 74.30 64.20 0.96 19.25 1689.7 7 20 76.30 66.40 0.07 21.35 1711.0 7 21 81.00 68.00 0.00 24.50 1735.5 7 22 77.20 65.80 0.00 21.50 1757.0 Peak adult emerge 3rd gen; max 5 gens. 7 23 82.40 63.70 0.00 23.05 1780.1 7 24 81.50 63.50 0.00 22.50 1802.6 7 25 84.20 60.10 0.00 22.15 1824.7 7 26 73.90 59.70 0.00 16.80 1841.5 7 27 76.10 56.30 0.00 16.20 1857.7 7 28 78.80 53.20 0.00 16.00 1873.7 7 29 79.00 55.90 0.00 17.45 1891.2 7 30 82.00 57.20 0.01 19.60 1910.8 7 31 82.80 56.80 0.08 19.80 1930.6 8 1 80.80 59.50 0.84 20.15 1950.7 8 2 73.90 58.30 0.00 16.10 1966.8 8 3 83.70 55.90 0.00 19.80 1986.6 Peak egg laying by 3rd gen females; max 6+ gens. 8 4 84.20 70.90 0.03 27.55 2014.2 8 5 81.90 66.00 2.10 23.95 2038.1 8 6 78.80 65.30 2.94 22.05 2060.2 8 7 76.10 62.80 0.00 19.45 2079.6 8 8 82.80 61.30 0.00 22.05 2101.7 8 9 86.90 68.40 0.00 27.65 2129.3 8 10 83.70 65.80 0.00 24.75 2154.1 8 11 84.90 62.80 0.00 23.85 2177.9 8 12 85.30 63.30 0.00 24.30 2202.2 8 13 86.90 64.40 0.00 25.65 2227.9 8 14 85.10 63.00 0.00 24.05 2251.9 Peak adult emerge 4th gen; max 6+ gens. 8 15 83.70 68.50 0.00 26.10 2278.0 8 16 81.90 66.90 0.44 24.40 2302.4 8 17 82.80 66.90 0.05 24.85 2327.3 8 18 83.80 65.10 0.00 24.45 2351.7 8 19 82.80 62.10 0.00 22.45 2374.2 8 20 73.40 67.10 0.22 20.25 2394.4 8 21 70.00 56.30 0.00 13.15 2407.6 8 22 77.00 52.50 0.00 14.75 2422.3 8 23 77.90 52.50 0.16 15.20 2437.5 8 24 70.20 62.10 0.08 16.15 2453.7 8 25 82.90 65.10 0.00 24.00 2477.7 Peak egg laying by 4th gen females; max 7+ gens. 8 26 84.20 64.40 0.12 24.30 2502.0 8 27 87.10 71.10 0.16 29.10 2531.1 8 28 82.90 63.50 0.84 23.20 2554.3 8 29 70.70 53.80 0.00 12.25 2566.5 8 30 75.40 51.80 0.00 13.60 2580.1 8 31 82.20 61.20 1.24 21.70 2601.8 9 1 81.70 67.10 0.47 24.40 2626.2 9 2 77.90 67.10 0.63 22.50 2648.7 9 3 73.40 67.10 1.58 20.25 2669.0 9 4 86.90 68.50 1.54 27.70 2696.7 9 5 74.30 64.60 0.24 19.45 2716.1 9 6 74.30 55.90 0.00 15.10 2731.2 Peak adult emerge 5th gen; max 8+ gens. 9 7 66.20 53.60 0.00 9.90 2741.1 9 8 71.20 53.10 0.00 12.15 2753.3 9 9 70.90 49.50 0.00 10.23 2763.5 9 10 73.40 46.60 0.00 10.52 2774.0 9 11 79.70 52.90 0.00 16.30 2790.3 9 12 82.40 56.10 0.00 19.25 2809.6 9 13 81.50 58.50 0.00 20.00 2829.6 9 14 86.20 61.50 0.00 23.85 2853.4 9 15 88.30 64.40 0.00 26.34 2879.7 Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 KPDC PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021