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invasive insect model of OSU OIPMC model analysis vers. 3.0 |
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Output from uspest.org/wea invasive insect degree-day/phenology model program: Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================ Model species/general links: spotted wing Drosophila [fruit] Type: invasive insect Model source/other links: OSU OIPMC model analysis vers. 3.0 Calculation method: single sine Lower threshold: 50 degrees Fahrenheit Upper threshold: 88 degrees Fahrenheit Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1 Ending date: 9 15 Model validation status: partly validated-has been compared to 2 years of field data in PNW Region of known use: potential for use in US ==============================EVENTS TABLE================================ 1. 261 DDs after Jan 1: 1st egg laying by ow females 2. 510 DDs after Jan 1: Peak (ca. 50%) egg laying by ow females; 1st adult emerge 1st gen 3. 565 DDs after Jan 1: 1st egg laying by 1st gen females 4. 755 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 1st gen 5. 995 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 1st gen females; max 2+ gens. 6. 1249 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 2nd gen; max 3+ gens. 7. 1489 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 2nd gen females; max 4+ gens. 8. 1743 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 3rd gen; max 5 gens. 9. 1983 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 3rd gen females; max 6+ gens. 10. 2237 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 4th gen; max 6+ gens. 11. 2477 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 4th gen females; max 7+ gens. 12. 2731 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 5th gen; max 8+ gens. 13. 2971 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 5th gen females; max 9+ gens. ==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================ Weather station: 2018 KOMH METAR Orange County Airport VA Lat:38.2469 Long:-78.0456 Elev:466 mn day max min precip DD50 CUMDD50 event -- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- ------- 1 1 24.80 1.40 0.00 0.00 0.0 * START * 1 2 28.40 1.40 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 3 32.00 3.20 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 4 28.40 15.80 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 5 23.00 8.60 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 6 21.20 3.20 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 7 26.60 -4.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 8 35.60 19.40 0.10 0.00 0.0 1 9 50.00 26.60 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 10 44.60 24.80 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 11 59.00 37.40 0.07 2.59 2.6 1 12 68.00 55.40 2.41 11.70 14.3 1 13 60.80 21.20 0.68 2.47 16.8 1 14 26.60 15.80 0.00 0.00 16.8 1 15 32.00 12.20 0.00 0.00 16.8 1 16 41.00 19.40 0.00 0.00 16.8 1 17 32.00 21.20 0.00 0.00 16.8 1 18 42.80 8.60 0.00 0.00 16.8 1 19 55.40 21.20 0.00 0.93 17.7 1 20 62.60 26.60 0.00 3.29 21.0 1 21 66.20 30.20 0.00 4.86 25.8 1 22 62.60 44.60 0.00 4.90 30.7 1 23 66.20 39.20 0.17 5.73 36.5 1 24 50.00 32.00 0.00 0.00 36.5 1 25 42.80 24.80 0.00 0.00 36.5 1 26 50.00 19.40 0.00 0.00 36.5 1 27 60.80 30.20 0.00 2.83 39.3 1 28 51.80 46.40 0.29 0.46 39.7 1 29 44.60 32.00 0.19 0.00 39.7 1 30 33.80 21.20 0.10 0.00 39.7 1 31 37.40 14.00 0.00 0.00 39.7 2 1 51.80 33.80 0.00 0.24 40.0 2 2 48.20 14.00 0.16 0.00 40.0 2 3 35.60 8.60 0.00 0.00 40.0 2 4 32.00 32.00 1.78 0.00 40.0 2 5 39.20 24.80 0.02 0.00 40.0 2 6 41.00 23.00 0.00 0.00 40.0 2 7 35.60 32.00 0.83 0.00 40.0 2 8 37.40 24.80 0.00 0.00 40.0 2 9 48.20 23.00 0.00 0.00 40.0 2 10 48.20 32.00 1.38 0.00 40.0 2 11 66.20 48.20 2.40 7.44 47.4 2 12 60.80 35.60 0.07 3.15 50.6 2 13 35.60 30.20 0.00 0.00 50.6 2 14 57.20 28.40 0.00 1.57 52.2 2 15 73.40 50.00 0.03 11.70 63.9 2 16 66.20 39.20 0.07 5.73 69.6 2 17 37.40 30.20 0.60 0.00 69.6 2 18 51.80 32.00 0.00 0.23 69.8 2 19 48.20 35.60 0.18 0.00 69.8 2 20 73.40 46.40 0.00 10.47 80.3 2 21 78.80 55.40 0.00 17.10 97.4 2 22 62.60 42.80 0.07 4.62 102.0 2 23 48.20 39.20 0.05 0.00 102.0 2 24 53.60 46.40 0.32 1.15 103.1 2 25 53.60 46.40 0.12 1.15 104.3 2 26 51.80 32.00 0.02 0.23 104.5 2 27 57.20 28.40 0.00 1.57 106.1 2 28 55.40 39.20 0.00 1.37 107.5 3 1 51.80 44.60 0.02 0.39 107.9 3 2 51.80 39.20 0.00 0.29 108.2 3 3 51.80 35.60 0.00 0.26 108.4 3 4 51.80 32.00 0.00 0.23 108.6 3 5 46.40 26.60 0.00 0.00 108.6 3 6 42.80 23.00 0.14 0.00 108.6 3 7 51.80 33.80 0.00 0.24 108.9 3 8 42.80 23.00 0.00 0.00 108.9 3 9 44.60 28.40 0.00 0.00 108.9 3 10 46.40 23.00 0.00 0.00 108.9 3 11 44.60 26.60 0.00 0.00 108.9 3 12 39.20 30.20 0.00 0.00 108.9 3 13 44.60 28.40 0.00 0.00 108.9 3 14 41.00 23.00 0.00 0.00 108.9 3 15 55.40 23.00 0.00 0.95 109.8 3 16 46.40 21.20 0.00 0.00 109.8 3 17 42.80 23.00 0.03 0.00 109.8 3 18 59.00 33.80 0.00 2.38 112.2 3 19 51.80 30.20 0.00 0.22 112.4 3 20 44.60 30.20 1.65 0.00 112.4 3 21 33.80 30.20 0.46 0.00 112.4 3 22 46.40 28.40 0.02 0.00 112.4 3 23 50.00 24.80 0.00 0.00 112.4 3 24 48.20 23.00 0.00 0.00 112.4 3 25 44.60 28.40 0.00 0.00 112.4 3 26 48.20 26.60 0.00 0.00 112.4 3 27 37.40 28.40 0.17 0.00 112.4 3 28 53.60 37.40 0.11 0.74 113.2 3 29 78.80 44.60 0.03 12.63 125.8 3 30 71.60 42.80 0.02 8.77 134.6 3 31 62.60 28.40 0.00 3.38 138.0 4 1 66.20 44.60 0.00 6.58 144.5 4 2 51.80 37.40 0.07 0.27 144.8 4 3 55.40 42.80 0.00 1.58 146.4 4 4 69.80 41.00 0.00 7.61 154.0 4 5 55.40 28.40 0.00 1.05 155.0 4 6 71.60 32.00 0.00 7.23 162.3 4 7 62.60 32.00 0.05 3.60 165.9 4 8 51.80 32.00 0.00 0.23 166.1 4 9 37.40 33.80 0.00 0.00 166.1 4 10 53.60 32.00 0.00 0.63 166.7 4 11 59.00 35.60 0.00 2.47 169.2 4 12 77.00 41.00 0.00 10.96 180.2 4 13 84.20 59.00 0.00 21.60 201.8 4 14 80.60 60.80 0.00 20.70 222.5 4 15 77.00 46.40 2.36 12.23 234.7 4 16 53.60 42.80 1.19 0.92 235.6 4 17 46.40 30.20 0.00 0.00 235.6 4 18 69.80 30.20 0.00 6.30 241.9 4 19 59.00 37.40 0.04 2.59 244.5 4 20 60.80 32.00 0.00 2.93 247.4 4 21 62.60 32.00 0.00 3.60 251.0 4 22 69.80 42.80 0.00 7.92 258.9 4 23 68.00 37.40 0.00 6.30 265.2 1st egg laying by ow females 4 24 53.60 46.40 1.23 1.15 266.4 4 25 66.20 51.80 0.66 9.00 275.4 4 26 71.60 46.40 0.00 9.59 285.0 4 27 64.40 50.00 1.03 7.20 292.2 4 28 77.00 42.80 0.00 11.33 303.5 4 29 59.00 37.40 0.00 2.59 306.1 4 30 71.60 32.00 0.00 7.23 313.3 5 1 82.40 35.60 0.00 12.51 325.8 5 2 87.80 42.80 0.00 16.54 342.4 5 3 89.60 59.00 0.00 24.14 366.5 5 4 89.60 60.80 0.00 25.04 391.6 5 5 73.40 55.40 0.00 14.40 406.0 5 6 69.80 51.80 0.00 10.80 416.8 5 7 73.40 50.00 0.00 11.70 428.5 5 8 77.00 48.20 0.00 12.79 441.2 5 9 77.00 44.60 0.00 11.75 453.0 5 10 82.40 51.80 0.03 17.10 470.1 5 11 86.00 51.80 0.57 18.90 489.0 5 12 89.60 60.80 0.01 25.04 514.0 Peak (ca. 50%) egg laying by ow females; 1st adult emerge 1st gen 5 13 84.20 60.80 0.04 22.50 536.5 5 14 86.00 62.60 0.00 24.30 560.8 5 15 86.00 59.00 2.35 22.50 583.3 1st egg laying by 1st gen females 5 16 73.40 64.40 0.04 18.90 602.2 5 17 68.00 64.40 0.34 16.20 618.4 5 18 66.20 57.20 1.74 11.70 630.1 5 19 68.00 53.60 1.60 10.80 640.9 5 20 87.80 64.40 0.18 26.10 667.0 5 21 80.60 64.40 0.00 22.50 689.5 5 22 80.60 64.40 0.35 22.50 712.0 5 23 82.40 60.80 0.00 21.60 733.6 5 24 80.60 53.60 0.00 17.10 750.7 5 25 84.20 53.60 0.00 18.90 769.6 Peak adult emerge 1st gen 5 26 86.00 66.20 0.95 26.10 795.7 5 27 84.20 69.80 1.87 27.00 822.7 5 28 69.80 66.20 0.00 18.00 840.7 5 29 80.60 66.20 0.02 23.40 864.1 5 30 80.60 68.00 0.79 24.30 888.4 5 31 84.20 68.00 0.37 26.10 914.5 6 1 87.80 64.40 0.10 26.10 940.6 6 2 80.60 68.00 0.87 24.30 964.9 6 3 69.80 57.20 1.05 13.50 978.4 6 4 78.80 55.40 0.00 17.10 995.5 Peak egg laying by 1st gen females; max 2+ gens. 6 5 80.60 51.80 0.00 16.20 1011.7 6 6 71.60 55.40 0.00 13.50 1025.2 6 7 78.80 55.40 0.00 17.10 1042.3 6 8 86.00 59.00 0.03 22.50 1064.8 6 9 86.00 62.60 1.26 24.30 1089.1 6 10 80.60 64.40 0.16 22.50 1111.6 6 11 68.00 59.00 0.39 13.50 1125.1 6 12 73.40 55.40 0.00 14.40 1139.5 6 13 82.40 64.40 0.00 23.40 1162.9 6 14 84.20 60.80 0.00 22.50 1185.4 6 15 82.40 53.60 0.00 18.00 1203.4 6 16 86.00 55.40 0.00 20.70 1224.1 6 17 86.00 64.40 0.04 25.20 1249.3 Peak adult emerge 2nd gen; max 3+ gens. 6 18 91.40 66.20 0.00 28.26 1277.6 6 19 95.00 68.00 0.02 29.94 1307.5 6 20 86.00 68.00 3.49 27.00 1334.5 6 21 84.20 68.00 0.79 26.10 1360.6 6 22 71.60 60.80 4.87 16.20 1376.8 6 23 82.40 62.60 0.02 22.50 1399.3 6 24 87.80 66.20 0.86 27.00 1426.3 6 25 81.20 64.40 0.00 22.80 1449.1 Px 6 26 76.10 62.60 0.00 19.35 1468.5 Px 6 27 85.40 60.30 0.00 22.85 1491.3 PnHx Peak egg laying by 2nd gen females; max 4+ gens. 6 28 86.80 66.80 0.00 26.80 1518.1 Px Pn 6 29 86.00 64.80 0.00 25.40 1543.5 Pn 6 30 89.60 62.60 0.00 25.93 1569.5 7 1 89.60 64.40 0.00 26.83 1596.3 7 2 95.00 69.80 0.00 30.79 1627.1 7 3 91.40 71.60 0.00 30.89 1658.0 7 4 89.60 71.60 0.00 30.40 1688.4 7 5 89.60 71.60 0.00 30.40 1718.8 7 6 86.00 71.60 0.00 28.80 1747.6 Peak adult emerge 3rd gen; max 5 gens. 7 7 78.80 59.00 0.00 18.90 1766.5 7 8 80.60 55.40 0.00 18.00 1784.5 7 9 86.00 51.80 0.00 18.90 1803.4 7 10 91.40 60.80 0.00 25.61 1829.0 7 11 89.60 66.20 0.00 27.72 1856.7 7 12 86.00 66.20 0.00 26.10 1882.8 7 13 84.20 62.60 0.00 23.40 1906.2 7 14 87.80 59.00 0.00 23.40 1929.6 7 15 87.80 64.40 0.05 26.10 1955.7 7 16 89.60 69.80 0.92 29.51 1985.2 Peak egg laying by 3rd gen females; max 6+ gens. 7 17 87.80 69.80 0.22 28.80 2014.0 7 18 80.60 62.60 0.00 21.60 2035.6 7 19 84.20 59.00 0.00 21.60 2057.2 7 20 82.40 62.60 0.00 22.50 2079.7 7 21 73.40 62.60 0.21 18.00 2097.7 7 22 80.60 59.00 0.00 19.80 2117.5 7 23 80.60 68.00 0.29 24.30 2141.8 7 24 78.80 71.60 1.07 25.20 2167.0 7 25 80.60 68.00 1.53 24.30 2191.3 7 26 86.00 66.20 0.01 26.10 2217.4 7 27 87.80 66.20 1.26 27.00 2244.4 Peak adult emerge 4th gen; max 6+ gens. 7 28 84.20 68.00 0.09 26.10 2270.5 7 29 80.60 62.60 0.00 21.60 2292.1 7 30 77.00 66.20 1.40 21.60 2313.7 7 31 80.60 68.00 4.36 24.30 2338.0 8 1 86.00 69.80 1.95 27.90 2365.9 8 2 82.40 69.80 1.45 26.10 2392.0 8 3 77.00 69.80 0.81 23.40 2415.4 8 4 86.00 66.20 0.05 26.10 2441.5 8 5 89.60 69.80 0.00 29.51 2471.0 8 6 89.60 68.00 0.00 28.61 2499.6 Peak egg laying by 4th gen females; max 7+ gens. 8 7 89.60 69.80 0.70 29.51 2529.1 8 8 89.60 68.00 0.00 28.61 2557.7 8 9 87.80 68.00 0.00 27.90 2585.6 8 10 86.00 64.40 0.00 25.20 2610.8 8 11 87.80 68.00 0.00 27.90 2638.7 8 12 82.40 66.20 3.20 24.30 2663.0 8 13 82.40 62.60 0.26 22.50 2685.5 8 14 84.20 59.00 0.22 21.60 2707.1 8 15 86.00 64.40 0.00 25.20 2732.3 Peak adult emerge 5th gen; max 8+ gens. 8 16 87.80 64.40 0.00 26.10 2758.4 8 17 89.60 69.80 0.00 29.51 2788.0 8 18 82.40 69.80 0.00 26.10 2814.1 8 19 80.60 68.00 0.00 24.30 2838.4 8 20 78.80 68.00 0.82 23.40 2861.8 8 21 82.40 71.60 0.79 27.00 2888.8 8 22 82.40 64.40 0.16 23.40 2912.2 8 23 77.00 55.40 0.00 16.20 2928.4 8 24 78.80 53.60 0.00 16.20 2944.6 8 25 78.80 55.40 0.00 17.10 2961.7 8 26 86.00 59.00 0.00 22.50 2984.2 Peak egg laying by 5th gen females; max 9+ gens. 8 27 89.60 66.20 0.00 27.72 3011.9 8 28 91.40 68.00 0.00 29.14 3041.0 8 29 91.40 71.60 0.00 30.89 3071.9 8 30 87.80 69.80 0.50 28.80 3100.7 8 31 86.00 68.00 0.02 27.00 3127.7 9 1 86.00 68.00 0.87 27.00 3154.7 9 2 86.00 68.00 0.03 27.00 3181.7 9 3 89.60 68.00 0.00 28.61 3210.3 9 4 89.60 69.80 0.00 29.51 3239.8 9 5 89.60 68.00 0.00 28.61 3268.4 9 6 89.60 66.20 0.00 27.72 3296.2 9 7 87.80 69.80 0.00 28.80 3325.0 9 8 75.20 60.80 0.05 18.00 3343.0 9 9 62.60 55.40 1.27 9.00 3352.0 9 10 66.20 60.80 0.63 13.50 3365.5 9 11 71.60 64.40 2.30 18.00 3383.5 9 12 78.80 64.40 0.07 21.60 3405.1 9 13 78.80 69.80 0.00 24.30 3429.4 9 14 77.00 69.80 0.20 23.40 3452.8 9 15 77.00 68.00 0.18 22.50 3475.3 Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 KOMH PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021