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invasive insect model of OSU OIPMC model analysis vers. 3.0 |
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Output from uspest.org/wea invasive insect degree-day/phenology model program: Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================ Model species/general links: spotted wing Drosophila [fruit] Type: invasive insect Model source/other links: OSU OIPMC model analysis vers. 3.0 Calculation method: single sine Lower threshold: 50 degrees Fahrenheit Upper threshold: 88 degrees Fahrenheit Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1 Ending date: 9 15 Model validation status: partly validated-has been compared to 2 years of field data in PNW Region of known use: potential for use in US ==============================EVENTS TABLE================================ 1. 261 DDs after Jan 1: 1st egg laying by ow females 2. 510 DDs after Jan 1: Peak (ca. 50%) egg laying by ow females; 1st adult emerge 1st gen 3. 565 DDs after Jan 1: 1st egg laying by 1st gen females 4. 755 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 1st gen 5. 995 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 1st gen females; max 2+ gens. 6. 1249 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 2nd gen; max 3+ gens. 7. 1489 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 2nd gen females; max 4+ gens. 8. 1743 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 3rd gen; max 5 gens. 9. 1983 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 3rd gen females; max 6+ gens. 10. 2237 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 4th gen; max 6+ gens. 11. 2477 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 4th gen females; max 7+ gens. 12. 2731 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 5th gen; max 8+ gens. 13. 2971 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 5th gen females; max 9+ gens. ==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================ Weather station: 2018 KMDH METAR Carbondale Murphysboro IL Lat37.7831 Long:-89.2450 Elev:410 mn day max min precip DD50 CUMDD50 event -- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- ------- 1 1 12.90 -0.90 0.00 0.00 0.0 * START * 1 2 19.90 -4.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 3 28.90 6.80 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 4 21.00 3.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 5 21.90 8.10 0.01 0.00 0.0 1 6 23.00 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 7 41.00 14.00 0.19 0.00 0.0 1 8 41.00 33.80 0.59 0.00 0.0 1 9 39.90 32.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 10 57.20 35.60 0.02 1.83 1.8 1 11 64.40 28.00 0.44 4.02 5.9 1 12 24.80 15.10 1.35 0.00 5.9 1 13 25.00 14.00 0.00 0.00 5.9 1 14 26.60 10.40 0.00 0.00 5.9 1 15 28.90 10.40 0.02 0.00 5.9 1 16 12.20 1.00 0.00 0.00 5.9 1 17 23.00 6.10 0.00 0.00 5.9 1 18 33.80 10.00 0.00 0.00 5.9 1 19 42.80 21.20 0.00 0.00 5.9 1 20 48.90 32.00 0.00 0.00 5.9 1 21 55.90 48.90 0.49 2.59 8.4 1 22 59.00 41.00 0.01 2.86 11.3 1 23 41.00 35.10 0.00 0.00 11.3 1 24 43.00 24.10 0.00 0.00 11.3 1 25 59.00 21.20 0.00 1.91 13.2 1 26 59.00 32.00 0.07 2.29 15.5 1 27 54.00 32.00 0.29 0.74 16.2 1 28 55.90 21.20 0.00 1.05 17.3 1 29 39.20 24.10 0.00 0.00 17.3 1 30 37.40 15.80 0.00 0.00 17.3 1 31 55.00 30.20 0.00 0.97 18.3 2 1 48.20 19.00 0.01 0.00 18.3 2 2 27.00 12.00 0.00 0.00 18.3 2 3 41.00 19.40 0.05 0.00 18.3 2 4 42.80 17.60 0.30 0.00 18.3 2 5 33.10 5.00 0.04 0.00 18.3 2 6 30.20 24.10 0.02 0.00 18.3 2 7 33.80 19.00 0.00 0.00 18.3 2 8 43.00 15.10 0.00 0.00 18.3 2 9 60.10 35.10 0.00 2.85 21.1 2 10 39.20 28.00 0.00 0.00 21.1 2 11 28.40 21.90 0.03 0.00 21.1 2 12 37.90 15.80 0.00 0.00 21.1 2 13 46.90 19.00 0.00 0.00 21.1 2 14 57.20 48.20 0.01 3.05 24.2 2 15 72.00 57.00 0.00 14.50 38.7 2 16 68.00 30.90 0.00 5.63 44.3 2 17 42.80 28.90 0.03 0.00 44.3 2 18 54.00 24.10 0.00 0.63 44.9 2 19 71.60 51.80 0.00 11.70 56.6 2 20 75.20 66.00 0.01 20.60 77.2 2 21 42.80 33.10 0.00 0.00 77.2 2 22 48.00 37.00 0.00 0.00 77.2 2 23 55.40 46.40 0.17 1.91 79.1 2 24 55.40 46.00 1.67 1.86 81.0 2 25 52.00 35.10 0.00 0.30 81.3 2 26 59.00 28.40 0.00 2.14 83.4 2 27 64.90 30.90 0.45 4.40 87.8 2 28 59.00 48.20 0.04 3.92 91.8 3 1 59.00 42.10 0.11 2.97 94.7 3 2 52.00 33.10 0.00 0.28 95.0 3 3 55.90 28.00 0.00 1.18 96.2 3 4 62.60 28.40 0.47 3.38 99.6 3 5 52.00 36.00 0.38 0.30 99.9 3 6 55.40 30.20 0.00 1.09 101.0 3 7 37.90 32.00 0.00 0.00 101.0 3 8 41.00 26.10 0.00 0.00 101.0 3 9 50.00 24.10 0.00 0.00 101.0 3 10 52.00 37.40 0.00 0.32 101.3 3 11 46.90 34.00 0.01 0.00 101.3 3 12 42.80 28.40 0.00 0.00 101.3 3 13 48.20 28.40 0.00 0.00 101.3 3 14 53.10 21.20 0.00 0.41 101.7 3 15 72.00 42.10 0.00 8.82 110.5 3 16 53.60 42.10 0.30 0.88 111.4 3 17 61.00 39.90 0.00 3.59 115.0 3 18 45.00 39.00 0.00 0.00 115.0 3 19 57.90 37.90 0.47 2.20 117.2 3 20 45.00 33.10 0.01 0.00 117.2 3 21 48.90 30.20 0.00 0.00 117.2 3 22 52.00 25.00 0.01 0.23 117.4 3 23 57.00 41.00 2.31 2.07 119.5 3 24 46.90 39.00 0.07 0.00 119.5 3 25 46.40 35.60 0.21 0.00 119.5 3 26 57.20 33.80 0.00 1.75 121.2 3 27 57.90 51.80 1.99 4.85 126.1 3 28 53.60 44.60 0.39 1.01 127.1 3 29 52.00 46.00 1.99 0.51 127.6 3 30 57.20 37.90 0.01 1.95 129.6 3 31 61.00 35.60 0.02 3.23 132.8 4 1 48.20 33.10 0.58 0.00 132.8 4 2 48.90 32.00 0.13 0.00 132.8 4 3 73.40 39.00 0.21 8.93 141.7 4 4 43.00 30.20 0.00 0.00 141.7 4 5 57.00 28.00 0.00 1.50 143.2 4 6 57.20 30.90 0.00 1.65 144.9 4 7 42.80 26.60 0.01 0.00 144.9 4 8 42.80 26.60 0.03 0.00 144.9 4 9 55.90 32.00 0.00 1.28 146.1 4 10 50.00 35.60 0.00 0.00 146.1 4 11 68.00 37.00 0.00 6.25 152.4 4 12 79.00 57.00 0.00 18.00 170.4 4 13 73.40 64.40 0.00 18.90 189.3 4 14 66.20 51.80 0.00 9.00 198.3 4 15 44.60 35.10 0.00 0.00 198.3 4 16 46.90 30.20 0.00 0.00 198.3 4 17 64.90 28.40 0.00 4.23 202.5 4 18 80.60 42.10 0.00 12.90 215.4 4 19 54.00 35.10 0.00 0.80 216.2 4 20 63.00 33.80 0.00 3.88 220.1 4 21 71.60 37.00 0.05 7.83 227.9 4 22 60.80 51.10 0.97 5.95 233.9 4 23 64.90 48.20 0.06 6.80 240.7 4 24 64.00 48.20 0.01 6.36 247.0 4 25 71.10 42.80 0.45 8.53 255.6 4 26 66.90 48.00 0.01 7.73 263.3 1st egg laying by ow females 4 27 69.10 46.40 0.00 8.37 271.7 4 28 62.60 42.10 0.00 4.52 276.2 4 29 64.40 39.00 0.00 4.93 281.1 4 30 75.90 35.10 0.00 9.48 290.6 5 1 81.00 44.60 0.00 13.70 304.3 5 2 82.90 60.80 0.49 21.85 326.1 5 3 75.90 64.00 1.26 19.95 346.1 5 4 79.00 62.10 0.01 20.55 366.6 5 5 79.00 57.20 0.00 18.10 384.7 5 6 82.40 55.00 0.07 18.70 403.4 5 7 78.10 52.00 0.00 15.05 418.5 5 8 80.60 46.40 0.00 14.00 432.5 5 9 84.20 64.40 0.00 24.30 456.8 5 10 87.80 57.20 0.00 22.50 479.3 5 11 86.00 59.00 0.00 22.50 501.8 5 12 86.00 64.90 0.00 25.45 527.2 Peak (ca. 50%) egg laying by ow females; 1st adult emerge 1st gen 5 13 88.00 62.60 0.00 25.30 552.5 5 14 89.60 62.60 0.00 25.93 578.5 1st egg laying by 1st gen females 5 15 84.90 64.00 0.00 24.45 602.9 5 16 84.90 64.40 0.00 24.65 627.6 5 17 81.00 63.00 1.16 22.00 649.6 5 18 73.90 64.00 0.59 18.95 668.5 5 19 82.90 64.40 0.03 23.65 692.2 5 20 80.60 62.10 0.47 21.35 713.5 5 21 80.60 66.00 0.01 23.30 736.8 5 22 86.00 63.00 0.00 24.50 761.3 Peak adult emerge 1st gen 5 23 86.00 62.10 0.00 24.05 785.4 5 24 87.80 62.10 0.00 24.95 810.3 5 25 88.00 62.60 0.07 25.30 835.6 5 26 87.80 66.20 0.00 27.00 862.6 5 27 91.40 68.00 0.00 29.14 891.8 5 28 91.40 66.20 0.00 28.26 920.0 5 29 86.00 69.10 0.22 27.55 947.6 5 30 89.60 71.10 0.18 30.15 977.7 5 31 84.20 69.80 0.59 27.00 1004.7 Peak egg laying by 1st gen females; max 2+ gens. 6 1 90.00 66.20 0.00 27.85 1032.6 6 2 87.80 69.10 0.02 28.45 1061.0 6 3 82.90 62.10 0.00 22.50 1083.5 6 4 80.60 55.40 0.00 18.00 1101.5 6 5 84.90 60.10 0.00 22.50 1124.0 6 6 90.00 60.10 0.00 24.83 1148.9 6 7 91.90 66.00 0.00 28.30 1177.2 6 8 93.00 66.00 0.00 28.57 1205.7 6 9 88.00 68.00 0.01 28.00 1233.7 6 10 93.20 68.00 0.00 29.58 1263.3 Peak adult emerge 2nd gen; max 3+ gens. 6 11 91.40 70.00 0.00 30.12 1293.4 6 12 90.00 69.80 0.91 29.63 1323.1 6 13 89.60 69.10 0.00 29.16 1352.2 6 14 91.40 68.00 0.00 29.14 1381.4 6 15 93.20 71.10 0.00 31.05 1412.4 6 16 93.90 70.00 0.00 30.67 1443.1 6 17 95.00 73.40 0.00 32.45 1475.5 6 18 93.20 73.40 0.00 32.14 1507.7 Peak egg laying by 2nd gen females; max 4+ gens. 6 19 91.40 75.00 0.00 32.53 1540.2 6 20 90.00 71.60 0.48 30.52 1570.7 6 21 82.90 66.20 0.79 24.55 1595.3 6 22 79.00 66.00 0.44 22.50 1617.8 6 23 82.90 66.00 0.27 24.45 1642.2 6 24 84.20 68.00 0.20 26.10 1668.3 6 25 81.00 71.10 1.12 26.05 1694.4 6 26 83.40 69.10 6.39 26.25 1720.6 Px 6 27 81.00 62.70 0.00 21.85 1742.5 Px Pn 6 28 87.50 67.50 0.00 27.50 1770.0 Px Pn Peak adult emerge 3rd gen; max 5 gens. 6 29 91.40 78.80 0.00 34.33 1804.3 6 30 91.90 73.40 0.00 31.87 1836.2 7 1 91.90 75.00 0.00 32.64 1868.8 7 2 91.40 73.40 0.05 31.76 1900.6 7 3 91.90 75.00 0.00 32.64 1933.2 7 4 93.90 75.00 0.00 33.00 1966.2 7 5 96.80 75.00 0.00 33.42 1999.6 Peak egg laying by 3rd gen females; max 6+ gens. 7 6 90.00 66.90 0.00 28.20 2027.8 7 7 82.90 64.40 0.00 23.65 2051.5 7 8 89.60 62.60 0.00 25.93 2077.4 7 9 91.40 71.10 0.00 30.65 2108.0 7 10 93.20 73.00 0.00 31.95 2140.0 7 11 93.20 71.10 0.00 31.05 2171.0 7 12 91.40 69.10 0.00 29.68 2200.7 7 13 91.90 66.20 0.00 28.39 2229.1 7 14 95.00 73.00 0.05 32.26 2261.4 Peak adult emerge 4th gen; max 6+ gens. 7 15 86.00 73.00 0.00 29.50 2290.9 7 16 93.20 73.40 0.00 32.14 2323.0 7 17 89.60 75.20 0.00 32.17 2355.2 7 18 86.00 71.60 0.00 28.80 2384.0 7 19 88.00 73.40 0.00 30.70 2414.7 7 20 93.90 71.60 0.00 31.42 2446.1 7 21 84.90 66.00 0.00 25.45 2471.6 7 22 81.00 68.00 0.03 24.50 2496.1 Peak egg laying by 4th gen females; max 7+ gens. 7 23 84.20 64.90 0.00 24.55 2520.6 7 24 89.60 64.40 0.00 26.83 2547.4 7 25 88.00 64.40 0.00 26.20 2573.6 7 26 89.60 64.00 0.10 26.63 2600.3 7 27 84.20 64.00 0.00 24.10 2624.4 7 28 86.00 59.00 0.00 22.50 2646.9 7 29 82.40 62.60 0.25 22.50 2669.4 7 30 75.20 68.00 0.00 21.60 2691.0 7 31 81.00 64.00 0.09 22.50 2713.5 8 1 82.90 62.60 0.00 22.75 2736.2 Peak adult emerge 5th gen; max 8+ gens. 8 2 88.00 60.10 0.00 24.05 2760.3 8 3 90.00 64.40 0.00 26.96 2787.2 8 4 89.60 66.00 0.00 27.62 2814.8 8 5 90.00 68.00 0.00 28.74 2843.6 8 6 91.90 71.60 0.00 31.01 2874.6 8 7 82.40 69.80 1.24 26.10 2900.7 8 8 87.80 69.80 0.00 28.80 2929.5 8 9 81.00 69.80 0.06 25.40 2954.9 8 10 87.80 69.10 0.00 28.45 2983.3 Peak egg laying by 5th gen females; max 9+ gens. 8 11 88.00 68.00 0.00 28.00 3011.3 8 12 86.00 63.00 0.00 24.50 3035.8 8 13 88.00 62.10 0.00 25.05 3060.9 8 14 84.20 62.60 0.06 23.40 3084.3 8 15 82.40 69.10 0.71 25.75 3110.0 8 16 86.00 71.10 0.00 28.55 3138.6 8 17 82.90 70.00 0.66 26.45 3165.0 8 18 84.20 66.20 0.00 25.20 3190.2 8 19 84.90 66.00 0.15 25.45 3215.7 8 20 84.20 69.10 0.16 26.65 3242.3 8 21 78.80 66.20 0.04 22.50 3264.8 8 22 75.90 55.00 0.00 15.45 3280.3 8 23 78.80 51.10 0.00 14.95 3295.2 8 24 70.00 60.10 0.54 15.05 3310.3 8 25 88.00 66.20 0.00 27.10 3337.4 8 26 88.00 72.00 0.00 30.00 3367.4 8 27 89.60 71.10 0.00 30.15 3397.5 8 28 89.60 69.80 0.00 29.51 3427.1 8 29 82.40 66.00 0.39 24.20 3451.3 8 30 86.00 64.00 0.01 25.00 3476.3 8 31 86.00 69.80 0.12 27.90 3504.2 9 1 87.80 69.10 0.00 28.45 3532.6 9 2 89.60 68.00 0.00 28.61 3561.2 9 3 90.00 69.10 0.00 29.28 3590.5 9 4 90.00 68.00 0.00 28.74 3619.2 9 5 89.60 66.20 0.00 27.72 3647.0 9 6 89.60 68.00 0.84 28.61 3675.6 9 7 87.80 71.10 1.67 29.45 3705.0 9 8 75.90 62.60 0.61 19.25 3724.3 9 9 66.20 60.10 0.10 13.15 3737.4 9 10 78.80 57.00 0.00 17.90 3755.3 9 11 79.00 55.00 0.00 17.00 3772.3 9 12 77.00 55.40 0.00 16.20 3788.5 9 13 84.90 62.10 0.00 23.50 3812.0 9 14 89.10 62.10 0.00 25.51 3837.5 9 15 88.00 62.60 0.00 25.30 3862.8 Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 KMDH PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021