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invasive insect model of OSU OIPMC model analysis vers. 3.0 |
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Output from uspest.org/wea invasive insect degree-day/phenology model program: Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================ Model species/general links: spotted wing Drosophila [fruit] Type: invasive insect Model source/other links: OSU OIPMC model analysis vers. 3.0 Calculation method: single sine Lower threshold: 50 degrees Fahrenheit Upper threshold: 88 degrees Fahrenheit Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1 Ending date: 9 15 Model validation status: partly validated-has been compared to 2 years of field data in PNW Region of known use: potential for use in US ==============================EVENTS TABLE================================ 1. 261 DDs after Jan 1: 1st egg laying by ow females 2. 510 DDs after Jan 1: Peak (ca. 50%) egg laying by ow females; 1st adult emerge 1st gen 3. 565 DDs after Jan 1: 1st egg laying by 1st gen females 4. 755 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 1st gen 5. 995 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 1st gen females; max 2+ gens. 6. 1249 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 2nd gen; max 3+ gens. 7. 1489 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 2nd gen females; max 4+ gens. 8. 1743 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 3rd gen; max 5 gens. 9. 1983 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 3rd gen females; max 6+ gens. 10. 2237 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 4th gen; max 6+ gens. 11. 2477 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 4th gen females; max 7+ gens. 12. 2731 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 5th gen; max 8+ gens. 13. 2971 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 5th gen females; max 9+ gens. ==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================ Weather station: 2018 KGRB METAR Green Bay Austin Strau WI Lat:44.4792 Long:-88.1367 Elev:692 mn day max min precip DD50 CUMDD50 event -- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- ------- 1 1 1.40 -11.20 0.00 0.00 0.0 * START * 1 2 14.00 -2.90 0.01 0.00 0.0 1 3 15.80 -2.90 0.07 0.00 0.0 *Warning: using yesterdays min* 1 4 9.00 -6.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 5 8.60 -6.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 6 10.90 -9.90 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 7 30.20 10.40 0.02 0.00 0.0 1 8 37.40 21.00 0.15 0.00 0.0 1 9 35.60 15.10 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 10 37.90 26.10 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 11 48.20 19.90 0.08 0.00 0.0 1 12 21.20 6.10 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 13 12.20 -0.90 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 14 19.40 -2.20 0.05 0.00 0.0 1 15 24.80 14.00 0.07 0.00 0.0 1 16 23.00 1.40 0.01 0.00 0.0 1 17 24.80 3.20 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 18 33.80 17.10 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 19 37.40 21.20 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 20 41.00 28.40 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 21 43.00 25.00 0.05 0.00 0.0 1 22 35.60 30.00 0.37 0.00 0.0 1 23 30.20 23.00 0.01 0.00 0.0 1 24 27.00 15.10 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 25 34.00 19.40 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 26 46.40 30.00 0.07 0.00 0.0 1 27 42.80 30.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 28 32.00 19.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 29 21.20 15.10 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 30 28.40 8.10 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 31 37.90 28.00 0.02 0.00 0.0 2 1 30.20 1.90 0.00 0.00 0.0 2 2 15.80 -0.40 0.00 0.00 0.0 2 3 24.80 12.00 0.23 0.00 0.0 2 4 14.00 -2.90 0.21 0.00 0.0 2 5 12.20 -9.40 0.00 0.00 0.0 2 6 12.90 -4.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 2 7 16.00 1.90 0.00 0.00 0.0 2 8 19.40 -2.90 0.03 0.00 0.0 2 9 18.00 -5.80 0.31 0.00 0.0 2 10 19.90 -2.20 0.01 0.00 0.0 2 11 23.00 6.80 0.03 0.00 0.0 2 12 18.00 -0.40 0.00 0.00 0.0 2 13 30.20 1.40 0.00 0.00 0.0 2 14 42.10 19.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 2 15 46.40 30.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 2 16 30.20 16.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 2 17 28.40 15.80 0.05 0.00 0.0 2 18 37.40 12.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 2 19 37.90 26.60 0.05 0.00 0.0 2 20 36.00 27.00 0.21 0.00 0.0 2 21 28.40 17.60 0.00 0.00 0.0 2 22 33.80 17.60 0.11 0.00 0.0 2 23 37.90 28.40 0.05 0.00 0.0 2 24 37.90 26.60 0.52 0.00 0.0 2 25 37.40 26.60 2.98 0.00 0.0 2 26 44.60 26.10 0.00 0.00 0.0 2 27 53.60 33.80 0.01 0.66 0.7 2 28 44.10 30.90 0.00 0.00 0.7 3 1 36.00 26.10 0.01 0.00 0.7 3 2 46.40 24.80 0.00 0.00 0.7 3 3 42.80 24.80 0.00 0.00 0.7 3 4 39.20 26.10 0.00 0.00 0.7 3 5 37.40 30.00 0.14 0.00 0.7 3 6 33.80 24.80 0.10 0.00 0.7 3 7 27.00 17.60 0.01 0.00 0.7 3 8 30.90 12.90 0.00 0.00 0.7 3 9 37.40 17.60 0.00 0.00 0.7 3 10 37.90 15.10 0.00 0.00 0.7 3 11 41.00 17.10 0.00 0.00 0.7 3 12 42.80 28.00 0.00 0.00 0.7 3 13 30.20 23.00 0.00 0.00 0.7 3 14 46.90 21.20 0.00 0.00 0.7 3 15 39.20 21.00 0.00 0.00 0.7 3 16 39.90 19.00 0.00 0.00 0.7 3 17 50.00 19.40 0.00 0.00 0.7 3 18 55.40 28.40 0.00 1.05 1.7 3 19 36.00 21.90 0.00 0.00 1.7 3 20 30.90 21.20 0.00 0.00 1.7 3 21 36.00 21.00 0.00 0.00 1.7 3 22 43.00 19.00 0.00 0.00 1.7 3 23 39.90 19.00 0.00 0.00 1.7 3 24 37.40 21.00 0.00 0.00 1.7 3 25 41.00 17.60 0.00 0.00 1.7 3 26 46.40 24.80 0.30 0.00 1.7 3 27 46.90 30.90 1.63 0.00 1.7 3 28 53.60 26.10 0.00 0.56 2.3 3 29 46.40 26.60 0.00 0.00 2.3 3 30 45.00 24.80 0.00 0.00 2.3 3 31 37.90 24.80 0.25 0.00 2.3 4 1 32.00 15.80 0.00 0.00 2.3 4 2 37.90 21.00 0.02 0.00 2.3 4 3 32.00 24.10 0.21 0.00 2.3 4 4 32.00 18.00 0.08 0.00 2.3 4 5 36.00 15.10 0.14 0.00 2.3 4 6 33.80 17.60 0.02 0.00 2.3 4 7 30.20 10.40 0.00 0.00 2.3 4 8 37.40 8.60 0.00 0.00 2.3 4 9 42.80 23.00 0.00 0.00 2.3 4 10 41.00 26.10 0.00 0.00 2.3 4 11 50.00 30.00 0.27 0.00 2.3 4 12 46.00 35.60 1.92 0.00 2.3 4 13 37.40 30.20 1.15 0.00 2.3 4 14 30.90 24.10 0.32 0.00 2.3 4 15 28.40 24.80 0.20 0.00 2.3 4 16 35.60 24.80 0.54 0.00 2.3 4 17 37.90 24.10 0.00 0.00 2.3 4 18 36.00 30.20 0.00 0.00 2.3 4 19 52.00 28.00 0.00 0.25 2.5 4 20 50.00 21.00 0.00 0.00 2.5 4 21 52.00 28.00 0.00 0.25 2.8 4 22 57.20 28.40 0.00 1.57 4.3 4 23 63.00 30.20 0.00 3.63 8.0 4 24 64.90 35.10 0.00 4.74 12.7 4 25 55.90 35.60 0.00 1.39 14.1 4 26 66.20 33.80 0.02 5.16 19.3 4 27 48.90 34.00 0.00 0.00 19.3 4 28 51.80 30.90 0.00 0.23 19.5 4 29 57.90 28.00 0.00 1.77 21.3 4 30 75.90 39.00 0.00 10.08 31.3 5 1 78.80 60.10 1.02 19.45 50.8 5 2 72.00 48.20 0.04 10.31 61.1 5 3 63.00 42.80 1.14 4.80 65.9 5 4 73.90 46.00 0.21 10.60 76.5 5 5 72.00 48.00 0.17 10.25 86.8 5 6 64.90 48.00 1.27 6.75 93.5 5 7 73.90 44.10 0.00 10.14 103.6 5 8 82.40 55.40 0.00 18.90 122.5 5 9 61.00 48.20 0.63 4.89 127.4 5 10 66.90 39.00 0.00 6.01 133.4 5 11 44.60 39.00 0.11 0.00 133.4 5 12 57.20 37.40 0.00 1.92 135.4 5 13 68.00 41.00 0.00 6.79 142.1 5 14 75.90 53.60 0.09 14.75 156.9 5 15 66.90 50.00 0.39 8.45 165.3 5 16 82.40 44.60 0.00 14.38 179.7 5 17 62.60 50.00 0.00 6.30 186.0 5 18 66.90 46.40 0.01 7.30 193.3 5 19 71.10 48.90 0.01 10.10 203.4 5 20 63.00 42.10 0.11 4.70 208.1 5 21 62.60 37.40 0.10 4.01 212.1 5 22 75.90 51.10 0.00 13.50 225.6 5 23 80.60 55.00 0.00 17.80 243.4 5 24 84.90 55.00 0.00 19.95 263.4 1st egg laying by ow females 5 25 89.60 66.00 0.00 27.62 291.0 5 26 91.90 62.10 0.02 26.39 317.4 5 27 97.00 60.80 0.04 26.94 344.4 5 28 89.60 64.40 0.09 26.83 371.2 5 29 87.10 64.00 0.00 25.55 396.7 5 30 79.00 64.40 0.03 21.70 418.4 5 31 84.20 66.00 0.00 25.10 443.5 6 1 71.60 53.60 0.00 12.60 456.1 6 2 69.10 53.60 0.61 11.35 467.5 6 3 66.90 54.00 0.83 10.45 477.9 6 4 78.80 51.10 0.01 14.95 492.9 6 5 69.80 48.00 0.00 9.16 502.0 6 6 70.00 42.80 0.12 8.02 510.1 Peak (ca. 50%) egg laying by ow females; 1st adult emerge 1st gen 6 7 77.00 53.60 0.00 15.30 525.4 6 8 73.40 53.10 0.00 13.25 538.6 6 9 73.00 60.80 0.00 16.90 555.5 6 10 71.60 57.20 0.00 14.40 569.9 1st egg laying by 1st gen females 6 11 79.00 55.00 0.00 17.00 586.9 6 12 81.00 60.10 0.00 20.55 607.5 6 13 82.40 60.10 0.01 21.25 628.7 6 14 84.20 55.40 0.00 19.80 648.5 6 15 73.90 55.90 1.44 14.90 663.4 6 16 82.00 60.80 0.00 21.40 684.8 6 17 91.40 69.80 2.45 30.02 714.8 6 18 75.90 66.20 0.14 21.05 735.9 6 19 70.00 62.60 0.03 16.30 752.2 6 20 77.00 61.00 0.00 19.00 771.2 Peak adult emerge 1st gen 6 21 72.00 57.20 0.00 14.60 785.8 6 22 75.00 53.60 0.00 14.30 800.1 6 23 77.00 53.60 0.00 15.30 815.4 6 24 78.80 60.10 0.00 19.45 834.8 6 25 75.90 53.10 0.00 14.50 849.3 6 26 79.90 59.00 0.00 19.45 868.8 Px 6 27 118.80 53.80 0.00 26.79 895.6 Px Pn 6 28 79.10 58.60 0.00 18.85 914.4 Px Pn 6 29 93.90 82.40 0.00 36.24 950.7 6 30 93.20 75.90 0.00 33.30 984.0 7 1 91.40 66.00 0.41 28.16 1012.1 Peak egg laying by 1st gen females; max 2+ gens. 7 2 84.90 60.10 0.00 22.50 1034.6 7 3 84.90 64.00 0.00 24.45 1059.1 7 4 93.20 68.00 0.20 29.58 1088.6 7 5 86.00 64.00 0.00 25.00 1113.6 7 6 77.00 57.90 0.00 17.45 1131.1 7 7 82.40 51.10 0.00 16.75 1147.8 7 8 84.90 55.40 0.00 20.15 1168.0 7 9 89.60 64.40 0.00 26.83 1194.8 7 10 86.00 60.80 0.00 23.40 1218.2 7 11 84.20 59.00 0.00 21.60 1239.8 7 12 82.40 64.00 0.44 23.20 1263.0 Peak adult emerge 2nd gen; max 3+ gens. 7 13 84.20 69.80 1.02 27.00 1290.0 7 14 88.00 69.10 2.07 28.55 1318.6 7 15 89.60 66.20 0.00 27.72 1346.3 7 16 84.20 64.00 0.00 24.10 1370.4 7 17 77.00 57.00 0.00 17.00 1387.4 7 18 81.00 53.10 0.00 17.05 1404.4 7 19 80.60 57.00 0.06 18.80 1423.2 7 20 79.00 66.20 0.42 22.60 1445.8 7 21 73.90 64.40 0.14 19.15 1465.0 7 22 77.00 64.00 0.02 20.50 1485.5 7 23 79.00 60.10 0.00 19.55 1505.0 Peak egg laying by 2nd gen females; max 4+ gens. 7 24 86.00 60.80 0.00 23.40 1528.4 7 25 82.90 57.00 0.44 19.95 1548.4 7 26 73.40 60.10 0.00 16.75 1565.1 7 27 73.40 55.90 0.00 14.65 1579.8 7 28 80.60 51.80 0.00 16.20 1596.0 7 29 82.40 53.60 0.00 18.00 1614.0 7 30 82.90 55.40 0.00 19.15 1633.1 7 31 84.20 55.40 0.00 19.80 1652.9 8 1 86.00 59.00 0.37 22.50 1675.4 8 2 66.20 57.00 0.05 11.60 1687.0 8 3 77.00 55.40 0.00 16.20 1703.2 8 4 87.80 64.00 0.46 25.90 1729.1 8 5 84.90 71.60 0.00 28.25 1757.4 Peak adult emerge 3rd gen; max 5 gens. 8 6 81.00 64.40 0.03 22.70 1780.1 8 7 73.90 60.80 0.00 17.35 1797.4 8 8 82.90 60.10 0.06 21.50 1818.9 8 9 82.90 61.00 0.39 21.95 1840.9 8 10 86.00 60.10 0.00 23.05 1863.9 8 11 86.00 59.00 0.00 22.50 1886.4 8 12 88.00 59.00 0.00 23.50 1909.9 8 13 88.00 57.00 0.00 22.50 1932.4 8 14 88.00 60.10 0.00 24.05 1956.5 8 15 84.90 64.00 0.00 24.45 1980.9 8 16 84.90 66.20 0.00 25.55 2006.5 Peak egg laying by 3rd gen females; max 6+ gens. 8 17 84.90 66.00 0.00 25.45 2031.9 8 18 79.00 57.20 0.00 18.10 2050.0 8 19 82.90 53.10 0.00 18.00 2068.0 8 20 78.80 60.80 0.55 19.80 2087.8 8 21 72.00 55.40 4.77 13.70 2101.5 8 22 79.00 50.00 0.00 14.50 2116.0 8 23 81.00 51.10 0.00 16.05 2132.1 8 24 70.00 62.10 0.16 16.05 2148.1 8 25 78.80 60.10 0.92 19.45 2167.6 8 26 82.40 57.00 1.21 19.70 2187.3 8 27 84.20 66.20 0.54 25.20 2212.5 8 28 81.00 66.90 2.89 23.95 2236.4 8 29 69.80 57.00 0.16 13.40 2249.8 Peak adult emerge 4th gen; max 6+ gens. 8 30 71.60 51.10 0.00 11.35 2261.2 8 31 80.60 51.80 0.00 16.20 2277.4 9 1 80.60 64.90 0.00 22.75 2300.1 9 2 80.60 64.40 0.08 22.50 2322.6 9 3 75.90 66.00 1.95 20.95 2343.6 9 4 88.00 68.00 0.83 28.00 2371.6 9 5 77.00 62.10 0.21 19.55 2391.1 9 6 72.00 50.00 0.00 11.00 2402.1 9 7 70.00 48.20 0.00 9.32 2411.5 9 8 71.60 48.20 0.00 10.11 2421.6 9 9 70.00 46.40 0.00 8.81 2430.4 9 10 73.40 44.10 0.00 9.90 2440.3 9 11 79.00 48.20 0.00 13.79 2454.1 9 12 82.40 57.20 0.00 19.80 2473.9 9 13 80.60 55.00 0.00 17.80 2491.7 Peak egg laying by 4th gen females; max 7+ gens. 9 14 84.90 55.00 0.00 19.95 2511.6 9 15 86.00 57.20 0.00 21.60 2533.2 Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 KGRB PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021