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invasive insect model of OSU OIPMC model analysis vers. 3.0 |
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Output from uspest.org/wea invasive insect degree-day/phenology model program: Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================ Model species/general links: spotted wing Drosophila [fruit] Type: invasive insect Model source/other links: OSU OIPMC model analysis vers. 3.0 Calculation method: single sine Lower threshold: 50 degrees Fahrenheit Upper threshold: 88 degrees Fahrenheit Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1 Ending date: 9 15 Model validation status: partly validated-has been compared to 2 years of field data in PNW Region of known use: potential for use in US ==============================EVENTS TABLE================================ 1. 261 DDs after Jan 1: 1st egg laying by ow females 2. 510 DDs after Jan 1: Peak (ca. 50%) egg laying by ow females; 1st adult emerge 1st gen 3. 565 DDs after Jan 1: 1st egg laying by 1st gen females 4. 755 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 1st gen 5. 995 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 1st gen females; max 2+ gens. 6. 1249 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 2nd gen; max 3+ gens. 7. 1489 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 2nd gen females; max 4+ gens. 8. 1743 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 3rd gen; max 5 gens. 9. 1983 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 3rd gen females; max 6+ gens. 10. 2237 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 4th gen; max 6+ gens. 11. 2477 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 4th gen females; max 7+ gens. 12. 2731 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 5th gen; max 8+ gens. 13. 2971 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 5th gen females; max 9+ gens. ==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================ Weather station: 2018 KCLL METAR College Stn Eerwood Fl TX Lat:30.5819 Long:-96.3617 Elev:318 mn day max min precip DD50 CUMDD50 event -- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- ------- 1 1 37.40 24.80 0.00 0.00 0.0 * START * 1 2 32.00 27.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 3 48.90 19.40 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 4 55.40 24.80 0.00 0.98 1.0 1 5 60.80 39.00 0.00 3.42 4.4 1 6 66.90 37.00 0.00 5.77 10.2 1 7 70.00 48.00 0.06 9.26 19.4 1 8 64.90 44.10 0.00 5.88 25.3 1 9 62.10 39.00 0.00 3.96 29.3 1 10 73.40 57.20 0.00 15.30 44.6 1 11 72.00 37.90 0.00 8.13 52.7 1 12 51.80 28.40 0.00 0.21 52.9 1 13 52.00 28.40 0.00 0.25 53.2 1 14 57.20 30.20 0.00 1.62 54.8 1 15 69.80 37.00 0.26 7.03 61.8 1 16 35.60 19.90 1.05 0.00 61.8 1 17 37.90 15.10 0.00 0.00 61.8 1 18 39.90 19.40 0.00 0.00 61.8 1 19 60.80 37.00 0.02 3.25 65.1 1 20 66.90 53.60 0.01 10.25 75.3 1 21 72.00 60.80 0.10 16.40 91.7 1 22 69.80 44.10 0.63 8.18 99.9 1 23 64.40 32.00 0.00 4.29 104.2 1 24 66.20 33.80 0.00 5.16 109.3 1 25 64.90 35.10 0.00 4.74 114.1 1 26 66.90 46.00 0.08 7.21 121.3 1 27 64.90 57.90 0.53 11.40 132.7 1 28 70.00 50.00 0.10 10.00 142.7 1 29 63.00 35.60 0.00 4.02 146.7 1 30 64.40 35.60 0.00 4.58 151.3 1 31 71.60 37.40 0.00 7.88 159.2 2 1 72.00 53.10 0.00 12.55 171.7 2 2 57.90 46.90 0.00 3.12 174.8 2 3 54.00 42.10 0.08 1.02 175.9 2 4 62.60 50.00 0.00 6.30 182.2 2 5 55.90 39.00 0.01 1.54 183.7 2 6 55.40 42.80 0.06 1.58 185.3 2 7 42.10 35.60 0.25 0.00 185.3 2 8 61.00 33.80 0.00 3.11 188.4 2 9 61.00 51.10 0.12 6.05 194.4 2 10 64.40 37.90 0.97 4.81 199.2 2 11 39.20 30.90 0.00 0.00 199.2 2 12 46.40 30.00 0.00 0.00 199.2 2 13 46.90 39.20 0.12 0.00 199.2 2 14 69.80 46.40 0.03 8.71 208.0 2 15 79.00 64.40 0.01 21.70 229.7 2 16 73.90 55.90 0.00 14.90 244.6 2 17 62.60 48.20 0.06 5.67 250.2 2 18 78.80 51.80 0.24 15.30 265.5 1st egg laying by ow females 2 19 79.00 66.20 0.00 22.60 288.1 2 20 75.20 69.80 0.55 22.50 310.6 2 21 73.40 42.80 0.24 9.62 320.2 2 22 46.90 41.00 0.01 0.00 320.2 2 23 73.90 44.10 0.01 10.14 330.4 2 24 75.20 62.10 0.09 18.65 349.0 2 25 62.60 52.00 0.33 7.30 356.3 2 26 68.00 51.10 0.00 9.55 365.9 2 27 80.60 57.00 0.00 18.80 384.7 2 28 82.90 69.10 0.05 26.00 410.7 3 1 75.20 54.00 0.13 14.60 425.3 3 2 75.90 51.10 0.00 13.50 438.8 3 3 75.20 51.80 0.02 13.50 452.3 3 4 77.00 62.60 0.04 19.80 472.1 3 5 84.00 59.00 0.07 21.50 493.6 3 6 73.90 46.00 0.00 10.60 504.2 3 7 64.90 44.10 0.00 5.88 510.1 Peak (ca. 50%) egg laying by ow females; 1st adult emerge 1st gen 3 8 68.00 46.00 0.00 7.74 517.8 3 9 73.40 48.20 0.00 11.01 528.8 3 10 82.90 64.00 0.00 23.45 552.3 3 11 72.00 53.60 0.00 12.80 565.1 1st egg laying by 1st gen females 3 12 64.90 42.80 0.00 5.66 570.7 3 13 70.00 44.60 0.00 8.38 579.1 3 14 70.00 42.10 0.00 7.89 587.0 3 15 73.40 48.00 0.00 10.94 597.9 3 16 84.90 64.00 0.01 24.45 622.4 3 17 82.40 69.10 0.00 25.75 648.1 3 18 81.00 62.60 0.99 21.80 669.9 3 19 78.80 57.00 0.25 17.90 687.8 3 20 68.00 48.00 0.00 8.27 696.1 3 21 73.90 42.10 0.00 9.72 705.8 3 22 78.80 50.00 0.00 14.40 720.2 3 23 81.00 57.20 0.00 19.10 739.3 3 24 82.90 66.20 0.00 24.55 763.9 Peak adult emerge 1st gen 3 25 81.00 68.00 0.00 24.50 788.4 3 26 84.90 66.20 0.00 25.55 813.9 3 27 84.20 64.00 0.33 24.10 838.0 3 28 66.90 60.10 4.66 13.50 851.5 3 29 78.80 57.00 2.99 17.90 869.4 3 30 73.90 53.60 0.00 13.75 883.2 3 31 80.10 53.10 0.00 16.60 899.8 4 1 81.00 57.20 0.00 19.10 918.9 4 2 82.90 60.80 0.00 21.85 940.7 4 3 82.90 61.00 0.01 21.95 962.7 4 4 70.00 48.20 0.00 9.32 972.0 4 5 73.90 51.80 0.00 12.85 984.8 4 6 84.00 64.90 0.16 24.45 1009.3 Peak egg laying by 1st gen females; max 2+ gens. 4 7 75.20 41.00 1.40 10.12 1019.4 4 8 57.20 42.10 0.00 2.23 1021.6 4 9 71.60 53.60 0.00 12.60 1034.2 4 10 75.20 51.80 0.00 13.50 1047.7 4 11 80.60 46.40 0.00 14.00 1061.7 4 12 84.20 60.10 0.00 22.15 1083.9 4 13 80.60 66.20 0.48 23.40 1107.3 4 14 66.20 48.00 1.30 7.38 1114.7 4 15 66.90 41.00 0.00 6.29 1121.0 4 16 80.10 44.10 0.00 13.13 1134.1 4 17 82.90 59.00 0.00 20.95 1155.0 4 18 82.90 64.00 0.00 23.45 1178.5 4 19 75.90 57.00 0.00 16.45 1194.9 4 20 66.90 53.10 0.00 10.00 1204.9 4 21 70.00 53.60 0.83 11.80 1216.7 4 22 71.60 52.00 0.00 11.80 1228.5 4 23 78.80 48.20 0.00 13.69 1242.2 4 24 84.20 53.60 0.00 18.90 1261.1 Peak adult emerge 2nd gen; max 3+ gens. 4 25 82.90 55.40 0.00 19.15 1280.3 4 26 75.90 48.00 0.00 12.18 1292.5 4 27 79.00 53.60 0.00 16.30 1308.8 4 28 82.90 55.40 0.00 19.15 1327.9 4 29 82.40 57.00 0.00 19.70 1347.6 4 30 80.60 57.20 0.00 18.90 1366.5 5 1 80.60 68.00 0.02 24.30 1390.8 5 2 87.80 71.10 0.07 29.45 1420.3 5 3 87.80 73.40 0.00 30.60 1450.9 5 4 77.00 64.90 0.85 20.95 1471.8 5 5 82.90 60.80 0.00 21.85 1493.7 Peak egg laying by 2nd gen females; max 4+ gens. 5 6 84.90 57.00 0.00 20.95 1514.6 5 7 88.00 60.80 0.00 24.40 1539.0 5 8 89.60 62.60 0.00 25.93 1564.9 5 9 87.80 62.10 0.00 24.95 1589.9 5 10 88.00 60.80 0.00 24.40 1614.3 5 11 89.60 69.80 0.00 29.51 1643.8 5 12 91.40 71.60 0.01 30.89 1674.7 5 13 91.40 73.00 0.01 31.57 1706.2 5 14 89.60 73.40 0.00 31.28 1737.5 5 15 90.00 69.10 0.00 29.28 1766.8 Peak adult emerge 3rd gen; max 5 gens. 5 16 91.90 66.00 0.00 28.30 1795.1 5 17 93.90 68.00 0.00 29.73 1824.8 5 18 93.90 71.10 0.00 31.19 1856.0 5 19 93.20 73.40 0.00 32.14 1888.2 5 20 84.20 68.00 0.45 26.10 1914.3 5 21 87.80 66.20 0.76 27.00 1941.3 5 22 86.00 68.00 0.00 27.00 1968.3 5 23 90.00 69.80 0.00 29.63 1997.9 Peak egg laying by 3rd gen females; max 6+ gens. 5 24 90.00 71.10 0.00 30.27 2028.2 5 25 91.90 71.10 0.00 30.77 2058.9 5 26 93.20 71.60 0.00 31.29 2090.2 5 27 95.00 73.00 0.00 32.26 2122.5 5 28 93.90 73.40 0.00 32.26 2154.8 5 29 95.00 73.00 0.00 32.26 2187.0 5 30 93.90 73.00 0.00 32.08 2219.1 5 31 95.00 73.40 0.00 32.45 2251.5 Peak adult emerge 4th gen; max 6+ gens. 6 1 96.80 77.00 0.00 34.28 2285.8 6 2 97.00 77.00 0.00 34.30 2320.1 6 3 98.60 70.00 1.56 31.45 2351.6 6 4 88.00 71.10 3.03 29.55 2381.1 6 5 95.00 75.00 0.00 33.17 2414.3 6 6 93.90 75.20 0.00 33.09 2447.4 6 7 93.90 75.00 0.00 33.00 2480.4 Peak egg laying by 4th gen females; max 7+ gens. 6 8 93.90 73.40 0.00 32.26 2512.7 6 9 93.20 71.60 0.00 31.29 2543.9 6 10 96.80 75.20 0.00 33.50 2577.4 6 11 96.80 78.10 0.00 34.74 2612.2 6 12 97.00 78.80 0.00 35.05 2647.2 6 13 96.80 73.40 0.00 32.71 2680.0 6 14 93.90 73.40 0.00 32.26 2712.2 6 15 96.10 73.40 0.00 32.61 2744.8 Peak adult emerge 5th gen; max 8+ gens. 6 16 95.00 75.00 0.00 33.17 2778.0 6 17 89.60 75.20 0.12 32.17 2810.2 6 18 90.00 73.40 0.14 31.40 2841.6 6 19 84.90 73.40 0.06 29.15 2870.7 6 20 81.00 73.40 1.13 27.20 2897.9 6 21 90.00 73.00 0.00 31.21 2929.1 6 22 95.00 75.20 0.00 33.26 2962.4 6 23 95.00 75.20 0.00 33.26 2995.7 Peak egg laying by 5th gen females; max 9+ gens. 6 24 95.00 78.10 0.00 34.55 3030.2 6 25 89.60 77.00 0.00 33.05 3063.3 6 26 93.60 75.20 0.00 33.04 3096.3 Px 6 27 119.40 70.10 0.00 33.23 3129.5 Px Pn 6 28 94.30 73.70 0.00 32.47 3162.0 Px Pn 6 29 96.80 75.00 0.00 33.42 3195.4 6 30 97.00 77.00 0.00 34.30 3229.7 7 1 97.00 77.00 0.00 34.30 3264.0 7 2 96.80 75.00 0.00 33.42 3297.4 7 3 98.60 73.40 0.00 32.94 3330.4 7 4 84.90 73.00 0.11 28.95 3359.3 7 5 96.10 71.10 0.04 31.57 3390.9 7 6 97.00 75.00 0.12 33.44 3424.3 7 7 84.20 73.40 0.55 28.80 3453.1 7 8 89.60 73.40 0.01 31.28 3484.4 7 9 82.40 73.00 0.58 27.70 3512.1 7 10 91.90 71.60 0.00 31.01 3543.1 7 11 93.20 73.40 0.00 32.14 3575.3 7 12 93.90 75.00 0.00 33.00 3608.3 7 13 93.90 75.00 0.00 33.00 3641.3 7 14 93.90 75.20 0.00 33.09 3674.4 7 15 96.80 75.20 0.00 33.50 3707.9 7 16 97.00 73.40 0.00 32.74 3740.6 7 17 97.00 75.00 0.00 33.44 3774.0 7 18 98.60 75.20 0.00 33.71 3807.8 7 19 100.40 75.20 0.00 33.89 3841.6 7 20 100.40 75.20 0.00 33.89 3875.5 7 21 99.00 75.00 0.00 33.67 3909.2 7 22 102.20 75.20 0.00 34.05 3943.3 7 23 106.00 75.20 0.00 34.33 3977.6 7 24 100.40 82.40 0.00 36.63 4014.2 7 25 99.00 75.20 0.00 33.75 4048.0 7 26 100.90 73.40 0.00 33.19 4081.1 7 27 100.90 75.00 0.00 33.85 4115.0 7 28 100.00 75.00 0.00 33.77 4148.8 7 29 100.40 75.00 0.00 33.81 4182.6 7 30 100.90 75.00 0.09 33.85 4216.4 7 31 91.90 75.20 0.11 32.73 4249.2 8 1 97.00 69.80 0.00 31.12 4280.3 8 2 97.00 70.00 0.00 31.21 4311.5 8 3 97.00 71.10 0.00 31.71 4343.2 8 4 96.80 73.00 0.00 32.53 4375.7 8 5 96.80 73.40 0.00 32.71 4408.4 8 6 96.80 75.00 0.00 33.42 4441.9 8 7 98.60 73.40 0.00 32.94 4474.8 8 8 97.00 75.00 0.00 33.44 4508.2 8 9 97.00 75.00 0.00 33.44 4541.7 8 10 95.00 75.00 0.00 33.17 4574.9 8 11 91.40 75.00 0.01 32.53 4607.4 8 12 81.00 71.60 0.21 26.30 4633.7 8 13 98.60 73.40 0.00 32.94 4666.6 8 14 97.00 73.40 0.00 32.74 4699.4 8 15 99.00 75.20 0.00 33.75 4733.1 8 16 100.90 75.20 0.00 33.93 4767.0 8 17 100.00 75.20 0.00 33.85 4800.9 8 18 100.40 77.00 0.00 34.62 4835.5 8 19 100.40 78.10 0.00 35.05 4870.6 8 20 100.40 78.80 0.00 35.32 4905.9 8 21 102.20 78.10 0.00 35.18 4941.1 8 22 102.20 75.00 0.00 33.97 4975.0 8 23 100.40 75.20 0.00 33.89 5008.9 8 24 99.00 75.00 0.00 33.67 5042.6 8 25 98.60 75.00 0.00 33.62 5076.2 8 26 99.00 75.20 0.00 33.75 5110.0 8 27 100.40 75.20 0.00 33.89 5143.9 8 28 100.00 77.00 0.00 34.59 5178.4 8 29 93.20 73.90 0.00 32.37 5210.8 8 30 98.60 71.60 0.00 32.15 5243.0 8 31 99.00 73.40 0.00 32.99 5276.0 9 1 98.60 75.20 0.00 33.71 5309.7 9 2 95.00 75.20 0.06 33.26 5342.9 9 3 86.00 86.00 0.01 36.00 5378.9 Px 9 4 93.20 77.00 0.00 33.80 5412.7 9 5 96.80 75.00 0.00 33.42 5446.1 9 6 96.80 75.00 0.01 33.42 5479.6 9 7 93.20 73.00 0.23 31.95 5511.5 9 8 93.20 73.40 0.68 32.14 5543.7 9 9 79.00 73.00 1.56 26.00 5569.7 9 10 78.80 71.60 0.42 25.20 5594.9 9 11 79.00 73.00 0.41 26.00 5620.9 9 12 84.90 73.00 0.14 28.95 5649.8 9 13 91.40 71.60 0.18 30.89 5680.7 9 14 84.90 73.00 0.05 28.95 5709.6 9 15 93.20 71.60 0.00 31.29 5740.9 Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 KCLL PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021