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invasive insect model of OSU OIPMC model analysis vers. 3.0 |
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Output from uspest.org/wea invasive insect degree-day/phenology model program: Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================ Model species/general links: spotted wing Drosophila [fruit] Type: invasive insect Model source/other links: OSU OIPMC model analysis vers. 3.0 Calculation method: single sine Lower threshold: 50 degrees Fahrenheit Upper threshold: 88 degrees Fahrenheit Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1 Ending date: 9 15 Model validation status: partly validated-has been compared to 2 years of field data in PNW Region of known use: potential for use in US ==============================EVENTS TABLE================================ 1. 261 DDs after Jan 1: 1st egg laying by ow females 2. 510 DDs after Jan 1: Peak (ca. 50%) egg laying by ow females; 1st adult emerge 1st gen 3. 565 DDs after Jan 1: 1st egg laying by 1st gen females 4. 755 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 1st gen 5. 995 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 1st gen females; max 2+ gens. 6. 1249 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 2nd gen; max 3+ gens. 7. 1489 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 2nd gen females; max 4+ gens. 8. 1743 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 3rd gen; max 5 gens. 9. 1983 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 3rd gen females; max 6+ gens. 10. 2237 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 4th gen; max 6+ gens. 11. 2477 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 4th gen females; max 7+ gens. 12. 2731 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 5th gen; max 8+ gens. 13. 2971 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 5th gen females; max 9+ gens. ==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================ Weather station: 2018 KBVS METAR BurlingtonMount Vernon WA Lat48.4706 Long:-122.4206 Elev:144 mn day max min precip DD50 CUMDD50 event -- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- ------- 1 1 35.60 28.40 0.00 0.00 0.0 * START * 1 2 37.40 28.40 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 3 42.80 26.60 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 4 46.40 32.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 5 55.40 42.80 0.24 1.58 1.6 1 6 48.20 42.80 0.07 0.00 1.6 1 7 44.60 41.00 0.17 0.00 1.6 1 8 50.00 42.80 0.33 0.00 1.6 1 9 48.20 42.80 0.25 0.00 1.6 1 10 44.60 39.20 0.00 0.00 1.6 1 11 41.00 37.40 0.91 0.00 1.6 1 12 50.00 37.40 0.28 0.00 1.6 1 13 50.00 41.00 0.14 0.00 1.6 1 14 51.80 37.40 0.00 0.27 1.8 1 15 57.20 35.60 0.00 1.83 3.7 1 16 53.60 46.40 0.00 1.15 4.8 1 17 59.00 44.60 0.01 3.26 8.1 1 18 51.80 42.80 0.07 0.35 8.4 1 19 46.40 42.80 0.00 0.00 8.4 1 20 48.20 41.00 0.05 0.00 8.4 1 21 51.80 42.80 0.07 0.35 8.8 1 22 48.20 39.20 0.03 0.00 8.8 1 23 46.40 39.20 0.36 0.00 8.8 1 24 50.00 42.80 0.00 0.00 8.8 1 25 44.60 37.40 0.08 0.00 8.8 1 26 42.80 39.20 0.04 0.00 8.8 1 27 50.00 39.20 0.06 0.00 8.8 1 28 55.40 42.80 0.03 1.58 10.4 1 29 55.40 41.00 0.42 1.46 11.8 1 30 48.20 37.40 0.02 0.00 11.8 1 31 44.60 39.20 0.04 0.00 11.8 2 1 44.60 41.00 0.19 0.00 11.8 2 2 53.60 42.80 0.14 0.92 12.7 2 3 50.00 48.20 0.26 0.00 12.7 2 4 51.80 46.40 0.12 0.46 13.2 2 5 50.00 44.60 0.08 0.00 13.2 2 6 48.20 44.60 0.04 0.00 13.2 2 7 51.80 44.60 0.03 0.39 13.6 2 8 53.60 42.80 0.02 0.92 14.5 2 9 46.40 33.80 0.00 0.00 14.5 2 10 42.80 28.40 0.00 0.00 14.5 2 11 42.80 30.20 0.00 0.00 14.5 2 12 42.80 28.40 0.00 0.00 14.5 2 13 42.80 26.60 0.07 0.00 14.5 2 14 41.00 33.80 0.26 0.00 14.5 2 15 44.60 33.80 0.00 0.00 14.5 2 16 44.60 39.20 0.20 0.00 14.5 2 17 48.20 39.20 0.51 0.00 14.5 2 18 41.00 26.60 0.00 0.00 14.5 2 19 35.60 23.00 0.00 0.00 14.5 2 20 37.40 24.80 0.00 0.00 14.5 2 21 33.80 24.80 0.00 0.00 14.5 2 22 39.20 21.20 0.00 0.00 14.5 2 23 35.60 23.00 0.00 0.00 14.5 2 24 42.80 32.00 0.12 0.00 14.5 2 25 44.60 32.00 0.02 0.00 14.5 2 26 46.40 30.20 0.00 0.00 14.5 2 27 48.20 39.20 0.00 0.00 14.5 2 28 46.40 37.40 0.00 0.00 14.5 3 1 50.00 37.40 0.06 0.00 14.5 3 2 42.80 37.40 0.00 0.00 14.5 3 3 46.40 33.80 0.00 0.00 14.5 3 4 48.20 32.00 0.10 0.00 14.5 3 5 46.40 35.60 0.00 0.00 14.5 3 6 50.00 33.80 0.00 0.00 14.5 3 7 48.20 32.00 0.00 0.00 14.5 3 8 50.00 41.00 0.15 0.00 14.5 3 9 50.00 37.40 0.00 0.00 14.5 3 10 53.60 33.80 0.00 0.66 15.2 3 11 59.00 39.20 0.00 2.71 17.9 3 12 68.00 44.60 0.00 7.43 25.3 3 13 62.60 44.60 0.16 4.90 30.2 3 14 48.20 39.20 0.13 0.00 30.2 3 15 51.80 35.60 0.00 0.26 30.5 3 16 53.60 35.60 0.00 0.70 31.2 3 17 51.80 32.00 0.00 0.23 31.4 3 18 53.60 41.00 0.00 0.84 32.2 3 19 53.60 35.60 0.00 0.70 32.9 3 20 51.80 37.40 0.00 0.27 33.2 3 21 59.00 37.40 0.00 2.59 35.8 3 22 50.00 33.80 0.63 0.00 35.8 3 23 46.40 37.40 0.00 0.00 35.8 3 24 48.20 35.60 0.06 0.00 35.8 3 25 51.80 30.20 0.00 0.22 36.0 3 26 44.60 41.00 0.29 0.00 36.0 3 27 55.40 41.00 0.20 1.46 37.5 3 28 51.80 39.20 0.00 0.29 37.8 3 29 46.40 41.00 0.08 0.00 37.8 3 30 57.20 41.00 0.00 2.14 39.9 3 31 55.40 37.40 0.00 1.30 41.2 4 1 50.00 33.80 0.15 0.00 41.2 4 2 50.00 33.80 0.00 0.00 41.2 4 3 50.00 39.20 0.08 0.00 41.2 4 4 46.40 41.00 0.20 0.00 41.2 4 5 53.60 42.80 0.47 0.92 42.1 4 6 64.40 50.00 0.00 7.20 49.3 4 7 57.20 50.00 0.13 3.60 52.9 4 8 53.60 48.20 0.09 1.36 54.3 4 9 59.00 42.80 0.06 3.04 57.3 4 10 57.20 46.40 0.14 2.72 60.1 4 11 55.40 42.80 0.03 1.58 61.6 4 12 51.80 39.20 0.01 0.29 61.9 4 13 53.60 44.60 0.01 1.01 62.9 4 14 51.80 42.80 0.47 0.35 63.3 4 15 51.80 41.00 0.07 0.32 63.6 4 16 46.40 41.00 0.57 0.00 63.6 4 17 53.60 44.60 0.11 1.01 64.6 4 18 55.40 41.00 0.00 1.46 66.1 4 19 59.00 37.40 0.00 2.59 68.7 4 20 59.00 41.00 0.00 2.86 71.5 4 21 55.40 42.80 0.02 1.58 73.1 4 22 55.40 37.40 0.00 1.30 74.4 4 23 62.60 39.20 0.00 4.19 78.6 4 24 66.20 44.60 0.00 6.58 85.2 4 25 64.40 44.60 0.00 5.73 90.9 4 26 69.80 44.60 0.00 8.29 99.2 4 27 59.00 44.60 0.00 3.26 102.4 4 28 53.60 46.40 0.22 1.15 103.6 4 29 57.20 46.40 0.00 2.72 106.3 4 30 57.20 48.20 0.06 3.05 109.3 5 1 60.80 44.60 0.00 4.07 113.4 5 2 66.20 42.80 0.00 6.25 119.7 5 3 71.60 46.40 0.00 9.59 129.3 5 4 60.80 48.20 0.00 4.79 134.1 5 5 64.40 42.80 0.00 5.43 139.5 5 6 73.40 51.80 0.00 12.60 152.1 5 7 66.20 50.00 0.00 8.10 160.2 5 8 69.80 44.60 0.04 8.29 168.5 5 9 68.00 51.80 0.03 9.90 178.4 5 10 60.80 48.20 0.25 4.79 183.2 5 11 66.20 48.20 0.00 7.44 190.6 5 12 68.00 44.60 0.00 7.43 198.0 5 13 73.40 50.00 0.00 11.70 209.7 5 14 78.80 53.60 0.00 16.20 225.9 5 15 69.80 50.00 0.00 9.90 235.8 5 16 66.20 50.00 0.00 8.10 243.9 5 17 64.40 51.80 0.00 8.10 252.0 5 18 64.40 50.00 0.00 7.20 259.2 5 19 69.80 51.80 0.00 10.80 270.0 1st egg laying by ow females 5 20 62.60 50.00 0.00 6.30 276.3 5 21 66.20 44.60 0.00 6.58 282.9 5 22 71.60 44.60 0.00 9.15 292.1 5 23 71.60 48.20 0.00 10.11 302.2 5 24 64.40 50.00 0.02 7.20 309.4 5 25 64.40 48.20 0.00 6.56 315.9 5 26 64.40 46.40 0.00 6.10 322.0 5 27 68.00 44.60 0.00 7.43 329.5 5 28 66.20 48.20 0.00 7.44 336.9 5 29 62.60 44.60 0.00 4.90 341.8 5 30 62.60 44.60 0.00 4.90 346.7 5 31 62.60 44.60 0.00 4.90 351.6 6 1 64.40 50.00 0.00 7.20 358.8 6 2 69.80 50.00 0.00 9.90 368.7 6 3 53.60 50.00 0.31 1.80 370.5 6 4 62.60 44.60 0.00 4.90 375.4 6 5 66.20 46.40 0.00 6.96 382.3 6 6 68.00 44.60 0.00 7.43 389.8 6 7 64.40 51.80 0.00 8.10 397.9 6 8 62.60 51.80 0.16 7.20 405.1 6 9 60.80 50.00 0.03 5.40 410.5 6 10 59.00 46.40 0.08 3.54 414.0 6 11 64.40 44.60 0.00 5.73 419.8 6 12 64.40 44.60 0.00 5.73 425.5 6 13 64.40 51.80 0.07 8.10 433.6 6 14 66.20 44.60 0.00 6.58 440.2 6 15 68.00 44.60 0.00 7.43 447.6 6 16 73.40 53.60 0.00 13.50 461.1 6 17 77.00 55.40 0.00 16.20 477.3 6 18 84.20 55.40 0.00 19.80 497.1 6 19 77.00 55.40 0.00 16.20 513.3 Peak (ca. 50%) egg laying by ow females; 1st adult emerge 1st gen 6 20 80.60 53.60 0.00 17.10 530.4 6 21 69.80 53.60 0.00 11.70 542.1 6 22 68.00 51.80 0.00 9.90 552.0 6 23 71.60 51.80 0.00 11.70 563.7 6 24 71.60 48.20 0.04 10.11 573.8 1st egg laying by 1st gen females 6 25 64.40 53.60 0.24 9.00 582.8 6 26 70.70 50.00 0.00 10.35 593.2 Px 6 27 69.30 45.10 0.00 8.16 601.3 Px Pn 6 28 63.90 51.30 0.00 7.60 608.9 Px Pn 6 29 64.40 54.80 0.01 9.60 618.5 Pn 6 30 59.00 53.60 0.18 6.30 624.8 7 1 66.20 53.60 0.00 9.90 634.7 7 2 66.20 51.80 0.00 9.00 643.7 7 3 71.60 46.40 0.00 9.59 653.3 7 4 73.40 50.00 0.00 11.70 665.0 7 5 80.60 57.20 0.00 18.90 683.9 7 6 78.80 55.40 0.00 17.10 701.0 7 7 73.40 55.40 0.00 14.40 715.4 7 8 73.40 50.00 0.00 11.70 727.1 7 9 68.00 55.40 0.00 11.70 738.8 7 10 71.60 53.60 0.02 12.60 751.4 7 11 75.20 51.80 0.00 13.50 764.9 Peak adult emerge 1st gen 7 12 78.80 51.80 0.00 15.30 780.2 7 13 77.00 55.40 0.00 16.20 796.4 7 14 77.00 53.60 0.00 15.30 811.7 7 15 82.40 53.60 0.00 18.00 829.7 7 16 82.40 53.60 0.00 18.00 847.7 7 17 84.20 55.40 0.00 19.80 867.5 7 18 73.40 53.60 0.00 13.50 881.0 7 19 69.80 55.40 0.00 12.60 893.6 7 20 71.60 51.80 0.00 11.70 905.3 7 21 73.40 48.20 0.00 11.01 916.3 7 22 78.80 50.00 0.00 14.40 930.7 7 23 82.40 55.40 0.00 18.90 949.6 7 24 82.40 50.00 0.00 16.20 965.8 7 25 86.00 50.00 0.00 18.00 983.8 7 26 86.00 51.80 0.00 18.90 1002.7 Peak egg laying by 1st gen females; max 2+ gens. 7 27 80.60 53.60 0.00 17.10 1019.8 7 28 80.60 53.60 0.00 17.10 1036.9 7 29 86.00 51.80 0.00 18.90 1055.8 7 30 84.20 59.00 0.00 21.60 1077.4 7 31 73.40 53.60 0.00 13.50 1090.9 8 1 73.40 53.60 0.00 13.50 1104.4 8 2 68.00 51.80 0.00 9.90 1114.3 8 3 71.60 55.40 0.00 13.50 1127.8 8 4 77.00 51.80 0.00 14.40 1142.2 8 5 80.60 53.60 0.00 17.10 1159.3 8 6 80.60 53.60 0.00 17.10 1176.4 8 7 84.20 51.80 0.00 18.00 1194.4 8 8 86.50 53.60 0.00 20.05 1214.5 Px 8 9 85.20 56.00 0.00 20.60 1235.1 Px Pn 8 10 84.10 51.70 0.00 17.90 1253.0 Px Pn Peak adult emerge 2nd gen; max 3+ gens. 8 11 71.50 57.30 0.00 14.40 1267.4 Px Pn 8 12 71.20 53.80 0.00 12.50 1279.9 Px Pn 8 13 70.50 49.30 0.00 9.95 1289.8 Px Pn 8 14 78.80 51.10 0.00 14.95 1304.8 Pn 8 15 82.40 51.80 0.00 17.10 1321.9 8 16 73.40 51.80 0.00 12.60 1334.5 8 17 73.40 50.00 0.00 11.70 1346.2 8 18 73.40 50.00 0.00 11.70 1357.9 8 19 71.60 53.60 0.00 12.60 1370.5 8 20 77.00 50.00 0.00 13.50 1384.0 8 21 84.20 55.40 0.00 19.80 1403.8 8 22 84.20 53.60 0.00 18.90 1422.7 8 23 69.80 51.80 0.00 10.80 1433.5 8 24 71.60 51.80 0.00 11.70 1445.2 8 25 59.00 50.00 0.00 4.50 1449.7 8 26 66.20 53.60 0.01 9.90 1459.6 8 27 74.50 51.80 0.00 13.15 1472.7 Px 8 28 77.60 47.60 0.00 12.89 1485.6 Px Pn 8 29 68.90 49.50 0.00 9.23 1494.8 Px Pn Peak egg laying by 2nd gen females; max 4+ gens. 8 30 73.40 52.00 0.00 12.70 1507.5 Pn 8 31 68.00 53.60 0.00 10.80 1518.3 9 1 69.80 51.80 0.00 10.80 1529.1 9 2 71.60 46.40 0.00 9.59 1538.7 9 3 69.80 51.80 0.00 10.80 1549.5 9 4 69.80 44.60 0.00 8.29 1557.8 9 5 75.20 46.40 0.00 11.35 1569.1 9 6 80.60 50.00 0.00 15.30 1584.4 9 7 68.00 50.00 0.07 9.00 1593.4 9 8 66.20 53.60 0.07 9.90 1603.3 9 9 68.00 53.60 0.22 10.80 1614.1 9 10 69.80 53.60 0.00 11.70 1625.8 9 11 68.00 50.00 0.05 9.00 1634.8 9 12 66.20 55.40 0.44 10.80 1645.6 9 13 68.00 53.60 0.00 10.80 1656.4 9 14 62.60 53.60 0.01 8.10 1664.5 9 15 64.40 51.80 0.00 8.10 1672.6 Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 KBVS PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021