Online Phenology Models and Degree-day Calculator
immaturedamageadult
spotted wing Drosophila [fruit]
invasive insect model of OSU IPPC model analysis vers. 3.0


Output from uspest.org/wea invasive insect degree-day/phenology model program:
	Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================ Model species/general links: spotted wing Drosophila [fruit] Type: invasive insect Model source/other links: OSU IPPC model analysis vers. 3.0 Calculation method: single sine Lower threshold: 50 degrees Fahrenheit Upper threshold: 88 degrees Fahrenheit Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1 Ending date: 9 15 Model validation status: partly validated-has been compared to 2 years of field data in PNW Region of known use: potential for use in US ==============================EVENTS TABLE================================ 1. 261 DDs after Jan 1: 1st EGG LAYING BY OW FEMALES 2. 510 DDs after Jan 1: PEAK (ca. 50%) EGG LAYING BY OW FEMALES; 1st ADULT EMERGE 1st GEN 3. 565 DDs after Jan 1: 1st EGG LAYING BY 1st GEN FEMALES 4. 755 DDs after Jan 1: PEAK ADULT EMERGE 1st GEN 5. 995 DDs after Jan 1: PEAK EGG LAYING BY 1st GEN FEMALES; MAX 2+ GENS. 6. 1249 DDs after Jan 1: PEAK ADULT EMERGE 2nd GEN; MAX 3+ GENS. 7. 1489 DDs after Jan 1: PEAK EGG LAYING BY 2nd GEN FEMALES; MAX 4+ GENS. 8. 1743 DDs after Jan 1: PEAK ADULT EMERGE 3rd GEN; MAX 5 GENS. 9. 1983 DDs after Jan 1: PEAK EGG LAYING BY 3rd GEN FEMALES; MAX 6+ GENS. 10. 2237 DDs after Jan 1: PEAK ADULT EMERGE 4th GEN; MAX 6+ GENS. 11. 2477 DDs after Jan 1: PEAK EGG LAYING BY 4th GEN FEMALES; MAX 7+ GENS. 12. 2731 DDs after Jan 1: PEAK ADULT EMERGE 5th GEN; MAX 8+ GENS. 13. 2971 DDs after Jan 1: PEAK EGG LAYING BY 5th GEN FEMALES; MAX 9+ GENS. ==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================ Weather station: 2018 KAPF METAR Naples Muni Apt FL Lat:26.1500 Long:-81.7667 Elev:7 mn day max min precip DD50 CUMDD50 event -- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- ------- 1 1 75.00 51.10 0.01 13.05 13.0 * START * 1 2 66.20 48.00 0.00 7.38 20.4 1 3 60.80 51.10 0.00 5.95 26.4 1 4 57.90 37.00 0.00 2.15 28.5 1 5 60.80 41.00 0.00 3.61 32.1 1 6 66.20 44.10 0.00 6.48 38.6 1 7 72.00 44.60 0.00 9.34 48.0 1 8 75.90 53.10 0.01 14.50 62.5 1 9 79.00 62.60 0.10 20.80 83.3 1 10 79.00 62.10 0.13 20.55 103.8 1 11 80.60 64.00 0.00 22.30 126.1 1 12 80.60 66.20 0.00 23.40 149.5 1 13 70.00 51.10 0.00 10.55 160.1 1 14 64.90 42.80 0.00 5.66 165.7 1 15 73.90 48.00 0.00 11.19 176.9 1 16 75.90 51.80 0.00 13.85 190.8 1 17 70.00 50.00 0.00 10.00 200.8 1 18 57.90 35.60 0.00 2.08 202.8 1 19 70.00 42.80 0.00 8.02 210.9 1 20 75.20 55.00 0.00 15.10 226.0 1 21 81.00 60.10 0.00 20.55 246.5 1 22 82.00 60.80 0.00 21.40 267.9 1st EGG LAYING BY OW FEMALES 1 23 81.00 69.10 0.01 25.05 293.0 1 24 79.00 62.10 0.00 20.55 313.5 1 25 77.00 55.00 0.00 16.00 329.5 1 26 78.80 59.00 0.00 18.90 348.4 1 27 80.60 64.00 0.00 22.30 370.7 1 28 80.60 64.40 0.38 22.50 393.2 1 29 73.90 62.10 1.63 18.00 411.2 1 30 69.80 50.00 0.00 9.90 421.1 1 31 75.20 46.00 0.00 11.24 432.3 2 1 79.00 53.10 0.00 16.05 448.4 2 2 75.90 57.20 0.00 16.55 464.9 2 3 77.00 59.00 0.00 18.00 482.9 2 4 80.60 60.80 0.07 20.70 503.6 2 5 84.20 64.00 0.65 24.10 527.7 PEAK (ca. 50%) EGG LAYING BY OW FEMALES; 1st ADULT EMERGE 1st GEN 2 6 84.20 60.80 0.00 22.50 550.2 2 7 86.00 64.40 0.00 25.20 575.4 1st EGG LAYING BY 1st GEN FEMALES 2 8 84.90 68.00 0.00 26.45 601.9 2 9 86.00 68.00 0.00 27.00 628.9 2 10 86.00 66.20 0.00 26.10 655.0 2 11 87.80 68.00 0.00 27.90 682.9 2 12 89.10 71.10 0.00 29.98 712.9 2 13 87.10 68.00 0.00 27.55 740.4 2 14 87.80 66.20 0.00 27.00 767.4 PEAK ADULT EMERGE 1st GEN 2 15 82.90 64.40 0.00 23.65 791.1 2 16 80.60 62.10 0.00 21.35 812.4 2 17 82.90 60.10 0.00 21.50 833.9 2 18 86.00 62.60 0.00 24.30 858.2 2 19 84.20 64.00 0.01 24.10 882.3 2 20 87.80 71.10 0.02 29.45 911.8 2 21 89.60 69.80 0.00 29.51 941.3 2 22 87.80 68.00 0.00 27.90 969.2 2 23 87.80 66.20 0.01 27.00 996.2 PEAK EGG LAYING BY 1st GEN FEMALES; MAX 2+ GENS. 2 24 88.00 69.10 0.01 28.55 1024.7 2 25 86.00 66.00 0.00 26.00 1050.7 2 26 84.20 64.40 0.00 24.30 1075.0 2 27 87.10 66.00 0.00 26.55 1101.6 2 28 84.20 66.00 0.00 25.10 1126.7 3 1 82.90 66.20 0.00 24.55 1151.2 3 2 82.90 71.10 0.00 27.00 1178.2 3 3 81.00 57.20 0.00 19.10 1197.3 3 4 79.00 51.80 0.00 15.40 1212.7 3 5 75.90 51.80 0.00 13.85 1226.6 3 6 80.60 53.10 0.00 16.85 1243.4 3 7 78.80 64.40 0.02 21.60 1265.0 PEAK ADULT EMERGE 2nd GEN; MAX 3+ GENS. 3 8 68.00 57.20 0.00 12.60 1277.6 3 9 73.90 53.10 0.00 13.50 1291.1 3 10 75.90 53.10 1.05 14.50 1305.6 3 11 80.60 64.40 0.08 22.50 1328.1 3 12 77.00 57.90 0.00 17.45 1345.6 3 13 68.00 50.00 0.00 9.00 1354.6 3 14 68.00 53.10 0.00 10.55 1365.1 3 15 75.20 48.20 0.00 11.90 1377.0 3 16 79.00 48.00 0.00 13.72 1390.7 3 17 79.00 57.00 0.00 18.00 1408.7 3 18 80.60 60.80 0.00 20.70 1429.4 3 19 81.00 64.40 0.00 22.70 1452.1 3 20 82.40 69.80 0.18 26.10 1478.2 3 21 73.90 60.10 0.00 17.00 1495.2 PEAK EGG LAYING BY 2nd GEN FEMALES; MAX 4+ GENS. 3 22 69.80 57.00 0.00 13.40 1508.6 3 23 75.90 50.00 0.00 12.95 1521.6 3 24 80.60 52.00 0.00 16.30 1537.9 3 25 80.60 59.00 0.00 19.80 1557.7 3 26 88.00 62.10 0.00 25.05 1582.7 3 27 84.00 64.00 0.00 24.00 1606.7 3 28 82.90 59.00 0.00 20.95 1627.7 3 29 86.00 64.40 0.00 25.20 1652.9 3 30 82.90 64.00 0.00 23.45 1676.3 3 31 84.20 69.80 0.00 27.00 1703.3 4 1 86.00 66.00 0.03 26.00 1729.3 4 2 82.90 66.20 0.36 24.55 1753.9 PEAK ADULT EMERGE 3rd GEN; MAX 5 GENS. 4 3 86.00 66.20 0.00 26.10 1780.0 4 4 82.40 66.00 0.00 24.20 1804.2 4 5 87.80 68.00 0.12 27.90 1832.1 4 6 84.90 64.40 0.00 24.65 1856.7 4 7 84.90 68.00 0.00 26.45 1883.2 4 8 84.90 71.60 0.00 28.25 1911.4 4 9 88.00 73.00 0.00 30.50 1941.9 4 10 87.80 71.60 0.00 29.70 1971.6 4 11 86.00 66.00 0.00 26.00 1997.6 PEAK EGG LAYING BY 3rd GEN FEMALES; MAX 6+ GENS. 4 12 87.80 62.10 0.00 24.95 2022.6 4 13 90.00 68.00 0.00 28.74 2051.3 4 14 90.00 64.00 0.00 26.76 2078.1 4 15 89.60 71.60 0.51 30.40 2108.5 4 16 72.00 64.40 0.00 18.20 2126.7 4 17 81.00 60.10 0.00 20.55 2147.2 4 18 81.00 60.10 0.00 20.55 2167.8 4 19 81.00 64.00 0.00 22.50 2190.3 4 20 82.40 66.00 0.00 24.20 2214.5 4 21 89.60 66.00 0.00 27.62 2242.1 PEAK ADULT EMERGE 4th GEN; MAX 6+ GENS. 4 22 89.10 71.10 0.21 29.98 2272.1 4 23 87.80 71.60 0.00 29.70 2301.8 4 24 84.20 73.90 0.12 29.05 2330.9 4 25 80.10 66.90 0.00 23.50 2354.4 4 26 81.00 62.60 0.00 21.80 2376.2 4 27 84.90 68.00 0.03 26.45 2402.6 4 28 80.10 69.10 0.00 24.60 2427.2 4 29 89.60 66.00 0.00 27.62 2454.8 4 30 90.00 68.00 0.00 28.74 2483.6 PEAK EGG LAYING BY 4th GEN FEMALES; MAX 7+ GENS. 5 1 90.00 63.00 0.00 26.27 2509.8 5 2 91.00 64.40 0.00 27.27 2537.1 5 3 91.90 66.20 0.00 28.39 2565.5 5 4 93.90 69.80 0.00 30.58 2596.1 5 5 91.40 69.80 0.06 30.02 2626.1 5 6 87.80 71.60 0.38 29.70 2655.8 5 7 87.80 75.00 3.90 31.40 2687.2 5 8 93.20 71.60 0.00 31.29 2718.5 5 9 93.20 69.10 0.00 30.10 2748.6 PEAK ADULT EMERGE 5th GEN; MAX 8+ GENS. 5 10 91.90 69.10 0.00 29.80 2778.4 5 11 91.90 69.10 0.00 29.80 2808.2 5 12 84.20 72.00 0.00 28.10 2836.3 5 13 82.40 71.10 0.81 26.75 2863.0 5 14 80.60 69.80 0.59 25.20 2888.2 5 15 89.10 71.10 0.64 29.98 2918.2 5 16 84.90 71.10 0.07 28.00 2946.2 5 17 84.20 72.00 0.16 28.10 2974.3 PEAK EGG LAYING BY 5th GEN FEMALES; MAX 9+ GENS. 5 18 84.90 71.10 0.00 28.00 3002.3 5 19 87.10 71.60 0.20 29.35 3031.7 5 20 77.00 71.60 0.10 24.30 3056.0 5 21 82.90 71.60 0.00 27.25 3083.2 5 22 89.60 73.00 0.03 31.09 3114.3 5 23 89.10 71.60 0.75 30.23 3144.5 5 24 87.80 71.60 0.00 29.70 3174.2 5 25 84.90 73.00 0.34 28.95 3203.2 5 26 75.20 71.10 0.49 23.15 3226.3 5 27 84.90 73.00 0.08 28.95 3255.3 5 28 84.20 78.10 0.01 31.15 3286.4 5 29 84.20 77.00 0.57 30.60 3317.0 5 30 86.00 75.20 0.02 30.60 3347.6 5 31 88.00 75.90 0.00 31.95 3379.6 6 1 89.60 75.00 0.34 32.07 3411.7 6 2 87.10 75.20 0.00 31.15 3442.8 6 3 88.00 78.80 0.00 33.40 3476.2 6 4 88.00 80.60 0.00 34.30 3510.5 6 5 88.00 82.00 0.00 35.00 3545.5 6 6 89.10 79.00 0.00 33.89 3579.4 6 7 89.60 73.40 0.15 31.28 3610.7 6 8 90.00 73.00 0.00 31.21 3641.9 6 9 93.00 73.40 0.00 32.10 3674.0 6 10 90.00 75.00 0.00 32.19 3706.2 6 11 90.00 73.40 0.05 31.40 3737.6 6 12 93.00 73.00 0.99 31.91 3769.5 6 13 91.90 78.10 0.01 34.09 3803.6 6 14 91.00 75.00 0.00 32.44 3836.0 6 15 91.40 75.20 0.02 32.62 3868.7 6 16 91.90 75.20 0.00 32.73 3901.4 6 17 93.90 80.10 0.00 35.28 3936.7 6 18 96.80 77.00 0.26 34.28 3970.9 6 19 91.90 77.00 0.00 33.58 4004.5 6 20 93.00 78.80 0.00 34.59 4039.1 6 21 91.90 80.60 0.00 35.24 4074.3 6 22 91.90 80.60 0.24 35.24 4109.6 6 23 90.00 78.80 0.02 34.03 4143.6 6 24 91.90 75.20 8.62 32.73 4176.4 6 25 90.00 75.20 0.23 32.28 4208.6 6 26 91.90 77.00 0.19 33.58 4242.2 Px 6 27 90.10 71.70 0.00 30.60 4272.8 PnHx 6 28 90.80 76.30 0.00 33.02 4305.8 Px Pn 6 29 90.00 77.00 0.38 33.16 4339.0 6 30 88.00 78.80 0.00 33.40 4372.4 7 1 91.90 78.10 0.00 34.09 4406.5 7 2 93.00 75.20 8.34 32.94 4439.4 7 3 93.20 71.60 2.26 31.29 4470.7 7 4 91.90 75.00 0.08 32.64 4503.3 7 5 93.90 73.40 0.00 32.26 4535.6 7 6 91.90 75.00 0.00 32.64 4568.2 7 7 91.90 75.20 0.00 32.73 4601.0 7 8 95.00 75.20 0.00 33.26 4634.2 7 9 96.10 78.10 0.00 34.67 4668.9 7 10 91.90 78.10 0.01 34.09 4703.0 7 11 91.40 75.20 0.00 32.62 4735.6 7 12 87.80 75.00 0.11 31.40 4767.0 Pn 7 13 93.90 75.20 0.00 33.09 4800.1 7 14 93.20 77.00 0.00 33.80 4833.9 7 15 91.90 78.80 0.00 34.42 4868.3 7 16 93.20 80.10 0.00 35.20 4903.5 7 17 91.90 80.10 0.00 35.01 4938.6 7 18 91.90 80.60 0.00 35.24 4973.8 7 19 91.90 80.10 0.00 35.01 5008.8 7 20 91.90 80.60 0.00 35.24 5044.0 7 21 93.20 80.60 0.32 35.41 5079.5 7 22 93.20 84.20 0.00 36.90 5116.4 7 23 91.90 82.90 0.12 36.25 5152.6 7 24 91.90 78.80 0.50 34.42 5187.0 7 25 91.90 80.60 0.25 35.24 5222.3 7 26 93.20 80.60 0.00 35.41 5257.7 7 27 91.40 78.10 0.00 34.00 5291.7 7 28 91.40 77.00 0.00 33.48 5325.2 7 29 88.00 77.00 0.06 32.50 5357.7 7 30 84.20 73.40 0.46 28.80 5386.5 7 31 90.00 75.00 0.00 32.19 5418.6 8 1 91.40 78.10 0.00 34.00 5452.6 8 2 93.90 73.90 0.74 32.50 5485.1 8 3 93.20 77.00 0.43 33.80 5518.9 8 4 91.90 77.00 1.01 33.58 5552.5 8 5 91.90 77.00 0.13 33.58 5586.1 8 6 93.90 77.00 0.00 33.91 5620.0 8 7 91.40 75.00 0.16 32.53 5652.5 8 8 91.40 75.00 2.07 32.53 5685.1 8 9 91.40 75.20 0.00 32.62 5717.7 8 10 90.00 78.10 0.00 33.70 5751.4 8 11 88.00 75.20 0.46 31.60 5783.0 8 12 86.00 75.00 0.35 30.50 5813.5
DD accumulation on 8-12-18: 5813QA 98% ok    
  
This year is about  versus  QA
 2 days behind 2017 ok
 4 days ahead 2016 ok
 12 days ahead 30-yr normal ok
Forecast using: NWS NDFD 7-day Forecast data
  8 13  88.00 80.00  0.00  34.00   5847.5  Partly_Cloudy_30%_precip    
  8 14  88.00 79.00  0.00  33.50   5881.0  Partly_Cloudy_30%_precip    
  8 15  88.00 79.00  0.00  33.50   5914.5  Partly_Cloudy_31%_precip    
  8 16  89.00 79.00  0.00  33.86   5948.4  Partly_Cloudy_26%_precip    
  8 17  89.00 79.00  0.00  33.86   5982.2  Partly_Cloudy_35%_precip    
  8 18  88.00 79.00  0.00  33.50   6015.7  Partly_Cloudy_42%_precip    
  8 19  87.00 79.00  0.00  33.00   6048.7  Partly_Cloudy_36%_precip    
Forecast using: 10 yr Hist Avg KAPF 2006-2015
  8 20  91.20 76.00  0.45  32.96   6081.7  *hist_fcst*    
  8 21  91.70 75.90  0.16  33.02   6114.7  *hist_fcst*    
  8 22  92.40 75.60  0.57  33.02   6147.7  *hist_fcst*    
  8 23  91.80 75.60  0.30  32.90   6180.6  *hist_fcst*    
  8 24  91.10 75.40  0.51  32.65   6213.3  *hist_fcst*    
  8 25  91.80 75.70  0.21  32.95   6246.2  *hist_fcst*    
  8 26  90.80 75.10  0.35  32.44   6278.7  *hist_fcst*    
  8 27  90.00 74.40  0.47  31.89   6310.6  *hist_fcst*    
  8 28  90.70 75.90  0.20  32.80   6343.4  *hist_fcst*    
  8 29  91.60 76.30  0.28  33.19   6376.5  *hist_fcst*    
  8 30  90.80 76.10  0.19  32.92   6409.5  *hist_fcst*    
  8 31  88.90 75.70  0.39  32.20   6441.7  *hist_fcst*    
  9  1  90.10 75.80  0.19  32.60   6474.3  *hist_fcst*    
  9  2  91.90 75.00  0.17  32.64   6506.9  *hist_fcst*    
  9  3  90.70 74.70  0.42  32.22   6539.1  *hist_fcst*    
  9  4  90.70 75.30  0.22  32.51   6571.6  *hist_fcst*    
  9  5  90.40 75.30  0.08  32.44   6604.1  *hist_fcst*    
  9  6  89.60 74.70  0.24  31.93   6636.0  *hist_fcst*    
  9  7  90.80 74.20  0.37  32.00   6668.0  *hist_fcst*    
  9  8  90.40 74.60  0.21  32.10   6700.1  *hist_fcst*    
  9  9  91.00 75.60  0.17  32.73   6732.8  *hist_fcst*    
  9 10  90.80 75.20  0.50  32.49   6765.3  *hist_fcst*    
  9 11  89.70 75.30  0.27  32.25   6797.6  *hist_fcst*    
  9 12  90.50 75.30  0.41  32.46   6830.0  *hist_fcst*    
  9 13  89.60 74.40  0.45  31.78   6861.8  *hist_fcst*    
  9 14  90.00 74.60  0.08  31.99   6893.8  *hist_fcst*    
  9 15  90.90 74.70  0.24  32.27   6926.1  *hist_fcst*    
spotted wing Drosophila model - OSU IPPC model analysis vers. 3.0
Location: 2018 KAPF Naples Muni Apt
DD accumulation on 8-12-18: 5813 QA 98% ok  - show details 
  
This year is about  versus  QA
 2 days behind 2017 ok
 4 days ahead 2016 ok
 12 days ahead 30-yr normal ok
DateDDsEvent
 1-22-18 2681st EGG LAYING BY OW FEMALES
 2-5-18 528PEAK (ca. 50%) EGG LAYING BY OW FEMALES; 1st ADULT EMERGE 1st GEN
 2-7-18 5751st EGG LAYING BY 1st GEN FEMALES
 2-14-18 767PEAK ADULT EMERGE 1st GEN
 2-23-18 996PEAK EGG LAYING BY 1st GEN FEMALES; MAX 2+ GENS.
 3-7-18 1265PEAK ADULT EMERGE 2nd GEN; MAX 3+ GENS.
 3-21-18 1495PEAK EGG LAYING BY 2nd GEN FEMALES; MAX 4+ GENS.
 4-2-18 1754PEAK ADULT EMERGE 3rd GEN; MAX 5 GENS.
 4-11-18 1998PEAK EGG LAYING BY 3rd GEN FEMALES; MAX 6+ GENS.
 4-21-18 2242PEAK ADULT EMERGE 4th GEN; MAX 6+ GENS.
 4-30-18 2484PEAK EGG LAYING BY 4th GEN FEMALES; MAX 7+ GENS.
 5-9-18 2749PEAK ADULT EMERGE 5th GEN; MAX 8+ GENS.
 5-17-18 2974PEAK EGG LAYING BY 5th GEN FEMALES; MAX 9+ GENS.
degree-day graph of spotted wing Drosophila [fruit] OSU IPPC model analysis vers. 3.0