   |
|
invasive insect model of OSU OIPMC model analysis vers. 3.0 |
|
Output from uspest.org/wea invasive insect degree-day/phenology model program: Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================ Model species/general links: spotted wing Drosophila [fruit] Type: invasive insect Model source/other links: OSU OIPMC model analysis vers. 3.0 Calculation method: single sine Lower threshold: 50 degrees Fahrenheit Upper threshold: 88 degrees Fahrenheit Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1 Ending date: 9 15 Model validation status: partly validated-has been compared to 2 years of field data in PNW Region of known use: potential for use in US ==============================EVENTS TABLE================================ 1. 261 DDs after Jan 1: 1st egg laying by ow females 2. 510 DDs after Jan 1: Peak (ca. 50%) egg laying by ow females; 1st adult emerge 1st gen 3. 565 DDs after Jan 1: 1st egg laying by 1st gen females 4. 755 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 1st gen 5. 995 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 1st gen females; max 2+ gens. 6. 1249 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 2nd gen; max 3+ gens. 7. 1489 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 2nd gen females; max 4+ gens. 8. 1743 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 3rd gen; max 5 gens. 9. 1983 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 3rd gen females; max 6+ gens. 10. 2237 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 4th gen; max 6+ gens. 11. 2477 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 4th gen females; max 7+ gens. 12. 2731 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 5th gen; max 8+ gens. 13. 2971 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 5th gen females; max 9+ gens. ==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================ Weather station: 2018 KAFJ METAR Washington Co Apt PA Lat:40.1331 Long:-80.2831 Elev:1184 mn day max min precip DD50 CUMDD50 event -- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- ------- 1 1 12.20 -5.80 0.03 0.00 0.0 * START * 1 2 16.00 1.40 0.01 0.00 0.0 1 3 27.00 -7.60 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 4 17.60 5.00 0.06 0.00 0.0 1 5 10.90 -0.90 0.01 0.00 0.0 1 6 12.90 -7.60 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 7 30.20 -11.20 0.01 0.00 0.0 1 8 35.60 28.00 0.19 0.00 0.0 1 9 37.90 24.80 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 10 55.40 17.10 0.01 0.87 0.9 1 11 66.20 44.10 2.27 6.48 7.4 1 12 64.40 25.00 0.60 3.85 11.2 1 13 25.00 8.60 0.12 0.00 11.2 1 14 27.00 -6.00 0.01 0.00 11.2 1 15 28.40 -2.20 0.02 0.00 11.2 1 16 30.20 8.10 0.01 0.00 11.2 1 17 17.60 1.40 0.02 0.00 11.2 1 18 28.90 5.00 0.01 0.00 11.2 1 19 39.20 21.20 0.00 0.00 11.2 1 20 42.80 35.60 0.00 0.00 11.2 1 21 51.80 39.20 0.03 0.29 11.5 1 22 64.90 42.80 0.26 5.66 17.2 1 23 55.90 37.00 0.01 1.45 18.6 1 24 37.40 26.60 0.03 0.00 18.6 1 25 30.90 19.40 0.03 0.00 18.6 1 26 54.00 17.60 0.00 0.57 19.2 1 27 55.40 32.00 0.27 1.13 20.3 1 28 48.90 28.00 0.40 0.00 20.3 1 29 45.00 19.40 0.03 0.00 20.3 1 30 28.40 6.80 0.05 0.00 20.3 1 31 45.00 3.20 0.00 0.00 20.3 2 1 46.40 28.00 0.53 0.00 20.3 2 2 26.60 10.40 0.04 0.00 20.3 2 3 30.90 10.00 0.00 0.00 20.3 2 4 39.20 30.20 0.76 0.00 20.3 2 5 32.00 17.10 0.14 0.00 20.3 2 6 28.90 21.20 0.35 0.00 20.3 2 7 32.00 19.00 0.34 0.00 20.3 2 8 26.60 12.20 0.03 0.00 20.3 2 9 41.00 12.20 0.00 0.00 20.3 2 10 52.00 32.00 0.34 0.27 20.6 2 11 59.00 33.80 0.49 2.38 22.9 2 12 36.00 19.40 0.05 0.00 22.9 2 13 41.00 15.10 0.00 0.00 22.9 2 14 57.20 37.00 0.48 1.90 24.8 2 15 64.40 55.00 2.18 9.70 34.5 2 16 62.60 30.00 0.21 3.47 38.0 2 17 35.60 26.60 0.27 0.00 38.0 2 18 39.90 32.00 0.21 0.00 38.0 2 19 69.80 30.20 0.29 6.30 44.3 2 20 78.80 57.00 0.00 17.90 62.2 2 21 71.60 41.00 0.83 8.44 70.7 2 22 41.00 39.00 11.60 0.00 70.7 2 23 66.20 41.00 0.44 5.98 76.6 2 24 60.80 46.00 0.59 4.31 80.9 2 25 60.80 44.10 0.03 4.00 84.9 2 26 52.00 32.00 0.00 0.27 85.2 2 27 57.20 24.80 0.00 1.48 86.7 2 28 64.40 33.80 0.00 4.43 91.1 3 1 55.40 33.10 0.45 1.16 92.3 3 2 39.20 30.00 0.02 0.00 92.3 3 3 42.80 24.10 0.00 0.00 92.3 3 4 44.10 19.40 0.00 0.00 92.3 3 5 42.80 19.40 0.00 0.00 92.3 3 6 48.90 24.10 0.02 0.00 92.3 3 7 41.00 28.40 0.05 0.00 92.3 3 8 32.00 24.80 0.02 0.00 92.3 3 9 30.20 24.10 0.03 0.00 92.3 3 10 41.00 14.00 0.00 0.00 92.3 3 11 42.80 15.10 0.00 0.00 92.3 3 12 44.60 26.60 0.01 0.00 92.3 3 13 35.10 24.10 0.01 0.00 92.3 3 14 30.20 21.00 0.02 0.00 92.3 3 15 46.40 26.10 0.00 0.00 92.3 3 16 37.40 21.20 0.01 0.00 92.3 3 17 35.60 15.80 0.05 0.00 92.3 3 18 53.60 15.80 0.00 0.48 92.7 3 19 55.90 23.00 0.00 1.08 93.8 3 20 43.00 30.00 0.23 0.00 93.8 3 21 34.00 28.00 0.11 0.00 93.8 3 22 39.90 21.00 0.00 0.00 93.8 3 23 41.00 19.00 0.00 0.00 93.8 3 24 42.80 17.60 0.00 0.00 93.8 3 25 42.10 21.20 0.00 0.00 93.8 3 26 53.60 28.40 0.15 0.59 94.4 3 27 52.00 35.60 0.76 0.30 94.7 3 28 55.90 50.00 0.30 2.95 97.7 3 29 66.20 51.80 0.88 9.00 106.7 3 30 50.00 28.00 0.04 0.00 106.7 3 31 57.20 24.10 0.00 1.46 108.1 4 1 51.80 35.10 0.33 0.25 108.4 4 2 41.00 32.00 0.10 0.00 108.4 4 3 57.90 33.10 1.22 1.96 110.3 4 4 59.00 30.20 0.02 2.21 112.5 4 5 45.00 28.00 0.01 0.00 112.5 4 6 57.90 33.10 0.18 1.96 114.5 4 7 37.90 26.60 0.36 0.00 114.5 4 8 39.90 21.20 0.00 0.00 114.5 4 9 35.60 28.00 0.01 0.00 114.5 4 10 44.60 24.10 0.01 0.00 114.5 4 11 57.20 30.90 0.00 1.65 116.2 4 12 75.90 46.40 0.00 11.69 127.8 4 13 84.20 62.10 0.00 23.15 151.0 4 14 82.90 50.00 0.00 16.45 167.4 4 15 75.20 50.00 1.88 12.60 180.0 4 16 50.00 33.10 0.04 0.00 180.0 4 17 35.60 30.20 0.02 0.00 180.0 4 18 55.40 26.10 0.44 1.00 181.0 4 19 44.60 33.10 0.02 0.00 181.0 4 20 54.00 26.60 0.00 0.66 181.7 4 21 55.90 25.00 0.00 1.12 182.8 4 22 68.00 42.10 0.00 6.96 189.8 4 23 72.00 48.00 0.08 10.25 200.0 4 24 57.20 48.00 0.65 3.00 203.0 4 25 59.00 39.20 0.01 2.71 205.8 4 26 61.00 35.60 0.00 3.23 209.0 4 27 68.00 39.20 0.05 6.53 215.5 4 28 57.20 37.00 0.01 1.90 217.4 4 29 52.00 30.20 0.00 0.26 217.7 4 30 66.90 28.40 0.00 5.00 222.7 5 1 79.00 35.60 0.00 10.95 233.6 5 2 84.20 51.10 0.00 17.65 251.3 5 3 84.90 66.00 0.06 25.45 276.7 1st egg laying by ow females 5 4 79.00 59.00 0.18 19.00 295.7 5 5 69.80 46.40 0.12 8.71 304.4 5 6 64.40 52.00 0.08 8.20 312.6 5 7 73.40 51.80 0.00 12.60 325.2 5 8 77.00 46.00 0.00 12.12 337.3 5 9 81.00 51.10 0.13 16.05 353.4 5 10 79.00 57.00 1.22 18.00 371.4 5 11 70.00 50.00 0.00 10.00 381.4 5 12 84.90 51.80 0.74 18.35 399.7 5 13 81.00 60.10 0.14 20.55 420.3 5 14 80.10 60.80 0.32 20.45 440.7 5 15 82.90 60.80 0.02 21.85 462.6 5 16 77.00 60.80 0.22 18.90 481.5 5 17 77.00 64.00 0.01 20.50 502.0 5 18 72.00 62.10 0.98 17.05 519.0 Peak (ca. 50%) egg laying by ow females; 1st adult emerge 1st gen 5 19 78.80 57.20 0.37 18.00 537.0 5 20 78.80 60.10 0.01 19.45 556.5 5 21 81.00 55.00 0.28 18.00 574.5 1st egg laying by 1st gen females 5 22 77.00 62.60 0.84 19.80 594.3 5 23 73.40 55.40 0.05 14.40 608.7 5 24 80.60 48.00 0.00 14.51 623.2 5 25 84.20 51.80 0.00 18.00 641.2 5 26 84.20 64.00 3.85 24.10 665.3 5 27 82.40 64.40 9.41 23.40 688.7 5 28 86.00 62.10 0.00 24.05 712.8 5 29 88.00 64.00 0.00 26.00 738.8 5 30 81.00 66.20 0.04 23.60 762.4 Peak adult emerge 1st gen 5 31 81.00 69.80 0.05 25.40 787.8 6 1 78.80 64.40 0.00 21.60 809.4 6 2 78.80 66.00 0.00 22.40 831.8 6 3 82.40 62.10 0.21 22.25 854.0 6 4 72.00 53.60 0.00 12.80 866.8 6 5 72.00 51.10 0.10 11.55 878.4 6 6 61.00 44.60 0.00 4.16 882.5 6 7 75.90 42.80 0.00 10.81 893.3 6 8 81.00 55.00 0.09 18.00 911.3 6 9 82.90 62.60 1.06 22.75 934.1 6 10 81.00 62.60 0.00 21.80 955.9 6 11 70.00 57.20 0.67 13.60 969.5 6 12 78.10 55.40 0.04 16.75 986.2 6 13 81.00 66.20 0.42 23.60 1009.8 Peak egg laying by 1st gen females; max 2+ gens. 6 14 80.60 53.60 0.00 17.10 1026.9 6 15 79.00 51.80 0.00 15.40 1042.3 6 16 82.90 53.10 0.52 18.00 1060.3 6 17 87.80 68.00 1.89 27.90 1088.2 6 18 90.00 68.00 0.00 28.74 1117.0 6 19 82.90 69.10 0.06 26.00 1143.0 6 20 82.40 66.20 1.02 24.30 1167.3 6 21 77.00 66.00 0.56 21.50 1188.8 6 22 75.90 62.60 0.82 19.25 1208.0 6 23 78.80 64.00 0.11 21.40 1229.4 6 24 80.60 66.00 0.00 23.30 1252.7 Peak adult emerge 2nd gen; max 3+ gens. 6 25 77.00 57.20 0.00 17.10 1269.8 6 26 78.20 55.40 0.00 16.80 1286.6 Px 6 27 79.90 54.50 0.00 17.20 1303.8 PnHx 6 28 82.20 60.80 0.00 21.50 1325.3 Px Pn 6 29 88.00 68.00 0.00 28.00 1353.3 6 30 90.00 62.10 0.00 25.82 1379.1 7 1 90.00 64.40 0.00 26.96 1406.1 7 2 88.00 71.10 0.00 29.55 1435.6 7 3 90.00 68.00 0.00 28.74 1464.4 7 4 93.90 68.00 0.00 29.73 1494.1 Peak egg laying by 2nd gen females; max 4+ gens. 7 5 84.90 69.10 0.18 27.00 1521.1 7 6 80.60 62.60 0.05 21.60 1542.7 7 7 79.00 53.60 0.00 16.30 1559.0 7 8 82.90 50.00 0.00 16.45 1575.5 7 9 84.90 55.00 0.00 19.95 1595.4 7 10 88.00 62.60 0.00 25.30 1620.7 7 11 82.90 59.00 0.00 20.95 1641.7 7 12 84.20 55.00 0.00 19.60 1661.3 7 13 87.80 57.20 0.00 22.50 1683.8 7 14 90.00 62.60 0.00 26.07 1709.8 7 15 87.80 68.00 0.21 27.90 1737.7 7 16 89.60 66.20 0.40 27.72 1765.5 Peak adult emerge 3rd gen; max 5 gens. 7 17 86.00 66.20 3.08 26.10 1791.6 7 18 79.00 55.00 0.00 17.00 1808.6 7 19 84.20 53.10 0.00 18.65 1827.2 7 20 84.20 64.00 0.78 24.10 1851.3 7 21 79.00 62.10 0.04 20.55 1871.9 7 22 80.60 57.00 0.17 18.80 1890.7 7 23 84.20 62.10 0.03 23.15 1913.8 7 24 84.20 66.20 0.15 25.20 1939.0 7 25 85.50 69.80 0.00 27.65 1966.7 Px 7 26 88.00 63.30 0.00 25.65 1992.3 Px Pn Peak egg laying by 3rd gen females; max 6+ gens. 7 27 85.70 64.00 0.00 24.85 2017.2 Px Pn 7 28 78.80 61.50 0.00 20.15 2037.3 Pn 7 29 80.60 55.40 0.00 18.00 2055.3 7 30 75.90 60.80 0.05 18.35 2073.7 7 31 79.00 62.10 0.48 20.55 2094.2 8 1 79.00 64.00 0.10 21.50 2115.7 8 2 77.00 64.40 0.07 20.70 2136.4 8 3 77.00 66.20 1.12 21.60 2158.0 8 4 86.00 62.60 0.00 24.30 2182.3 8 5 84.90 71.60 0.00 28.25 2210.6 8 6 89.60 66.90 0.00 28.07 2238.6 Peak adult emerge 4th gen; max 6+ gens. 8 7 84.90 69.10 0.18 27.00 2265.6 8 8 78.80 69.10 0.35 23.95 2289.6 8 9 82.90 66.00 0.01 24.45 2314.0 8 10 82.90 62.60 0.52 22.75 2336.8 8 11 80.60 66.00 0.00 23.30 2360.1 8 12 82.90 57.90 0.00 20.40 2380.5 8 13 82.40 57.20 0.55 19.80 2400.3 8 14 79.00 60.10 0.08 19.55 2419.8 8 15 82.90 62.60 0.00 22.75 2442.6 8 16 82.90 68.00 0.01 25.45 2468.0 8 17 80.60 66.00 0.90 23.30 2491.3 Peak egg laying by 4th gen females; max 7+ gens. 8 18 81.00 66.00 0.01 23.50 2514.8 8 19 79.00 60.80 0.00 19.90 2534.7 8 20 84.20 57.20 0.15 20.70 2555.4 8 21 79.00 69.10 0.30 24.05 2579.5 8 22 73.90 59.00 0.34 16.45 2595.9 8 23 75.20 51.10 0.00 13.15 2609.1 8 24 79.00 51.10 0.00 15.05 2624.1 8 25 78.80 60.10 0.00 19.45 2643.6 8 26 80.60 64.00 0.00 22.30 2665.9 8 27 89.60 71.10 0.00 30.15 2696.0 8 28 90.00 69.80 0.00 29.63 2725.7 8 29 89.60 69.10 0.04 29.16 2754.8 Peak adult emerge 5th gen; max 8+ gens. 8 30 82.90 69.10 0.22 26.00 2780.8 8 31 86.00 62.10 0.00 24.05 2804.9 9 1 86.00 64.40 0.24 25.20 2830.1 9 2 87.80 64.40 0.13 26.10 2856.2 9 3 91.40 66.20 0.00 28.26 2884.4 9 4 93.20 64.40 0.00 27.84 2912.3 9 5 91.40 68.00 0.00 29.14 2941.4 9 6 86.00 68.00 0.36 27.00 2968.4 9 7 82.40 66.00 0.31 24.20 2992.6 Peak egg laying by 5th gen females; max 9+ gens. 9 8 72.00 53.10 1.73 12.55 3005.2 9 9 59.00 53.10 0.00 6.05 3011.2 9 10 69.80 57.20 0.64 13.50 3024.7 9 11 68.00 59.00 0.00 13.50 3038.2 9 12 75.20 59.00 0.00 17.10 3055.3 9 13 87.80 62.60 0.00 25.20 3080.5 Px 9 14 87.40 67.40 0.00 27.40 3107.9 Px Pn 9 15 82.00 67.50 0.00 24.75 3132.7 Px Pn Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 KAFJ PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021