Online Phenology Models and Degree-day Calculator
immaturedamageadult
spotted wing Drosophila [fruit]
invasive insect model of OSU IPPC model analysis vers. 3.0


Output from uspest.org/wea invasive insect degree-day/phenology model program:
	Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================ Model species/general links: spotted wing Drosophila [fruit] Type: invasive insect Model source/other links: OSU IPPC model analysis vers. 3.0 Calculation method: single sine Lower threshold: 50 degrees Fahrenheit Upper threshold: 88 degrees Fahrenheit Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1 Ending date: 9 15 Model validation status: partly validated-has been compared to 2 years of field data in PNW Region of known use: potential for use in US ==============================EVENTS TABLE================================ 1. 261 DDs after Jan 1: 1st EGG LAYING BY OW FEMALES 2. 510 DDs after Jan 1: PEAK (ca. 50%) EGG LAYING BY OW FEMALES; 1st ADULT EMERGE 1st GEN 3. 565 DDs after Jan 1: 1st EGG LAYING BY 1st GEN FEMALES 4. 755 DDs after Jan 1: PEAK ADULT EMERGE 1st GEN 5. 995 DDs after Jan 1: PEAK EGG LAYING BY 1st GEN FEMALES; MAX 2+ GENS. 6. 1249 DDs after Jan 1: PEAK ADULT EMERGE 2nd GEN; MAX 3+ GENS. 7. 1489 DDs after Jan 1: PEAK EGG LAYING BY 2nd GEN FEMALES; MAX 4+ GENS. 8. 1743 DDs after Jan 1: PEAK ADULT EMERGE 3rd GEN; MAX 5 GENS. 9. 1983 DDs after Jan 1: PEAK EGG LAYING BY 3rd GEN FEMALES; MAX 6+ GENS. 10. 2237 DDs after Jan 1: PEAK ADULT EMERGE 4th GEN; MAX 6+ GENS. 11. 2477 DDs after Jan 1: PEAK EGG LAYING BY 4th GEN FEMALES; MAX 7+ GENS. 12. 2731 DDs after Jan 1: PEAK ADULT EMERGE 5th GEN; MAX 8+ GENS. 13. 2971 DDs after Jan 1: PEAK EGG LAYING BY 5th GEN FEMALES; MAX 9+ GENS. ==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================ Weather station: 2018 JAYF1 FAWN Jay FL Lat30.7753 Long-87.1400 Elev:220 mn day max min precip DD50 CUMDD50 event -- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- ------- 1 1 34.40 23.20 0.00 0.00 0.0 * START * 1 2 39.50 18.80 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 3 42.20 27.40 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 4 43.30 23.90 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 5 49.60 21.40 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 6 55.10 25.40 0.00 0.91 0.9 1 7 53.90 28.60 0.00 0.66 1.6 1 8 59.50 43.10 0.00 3.29 4.9 1 9 64.60 54.70 0.00 9.65 14.5 1 10 66.40 57.30 0.00 11.85 26.4 1 11 70.50 61.80 0.00 16.15 42.5 1 12 65.00 34.60 0.00 4.74 47.3 1 13 40.10 27.20 0.00 0.00 47.3 1 14 48.80 23.70 0.00 0.00 47.3 1 15 57.00 26.60 0.00 1.46 48.7 1 16 59.60 30.80 0.00 2.44 51.2 1 17 32.70 17.00 0.00 0.00 51.2 1 18 43.50 17.60 0.00 0.00 51.2 1 19 56.60 22.30 0.00 1.25 52.4 1 20 66.50 30.20 0.00 4.98 57.4 1 21 71.30 40.40 0.00 8.20 65.6 1 22 69.10 49.00 0.00 9.14 74.7 1 23 64.00 37.80 0.00 4.63 79.4 1 24 56.40 36.50 0.00 1.60 81.0 1 25 62.70 32.40 0.00 3.66 84.6 1 26 66.40 40.20 0.00 5.95 90.6 1 27 67.80 55.40 0.00 11.60 102.2 1 28 68.90 58.40 0.00 13.65 115.8 1 29 63.40 48.40 0.00 6.12 121.9 1 30 52.20 34.00 0.00 0.33 122.3 1 31 61.00 29.50 0.00 2.87 125.1 2 1 69.20 48.00 0.00 8.86 134.0 2 2 59.40 39.50 0.00 2.90 136.9 2 3 60.30 32.00 0.00 2.75 139.6 2 4 67.60 50.00 0.00 8.80 148.4 2 5 68.60 37.70 0.00 6.60 155.0 2 6 71.50 44.50 0.00 9.08 164.1 2 7 73.50 49.80 0.00 11.66 175.8 2 8 63.70 41.70 0.00 4.96 180.7 2 9 67.30 47.80 0.00 7.87 188.6 2 10 69.00 60.70 0.00 14.85 203.5 2 11 65.60 63.80 0.00 14.70 218.2 2 12 64.60 52.80 0.00 8.70 226.9 2 13 73.70 51.80 0.00 12.75 239.6 2 14 71.50 59.70 0.00 15.60 255.2 2 15 75.50 63.30 0.00 19.40 274.6 1st EGG LAYING BY OW FEMALES 2 16 79.70 65.30 0.00 22.50 297.1 2 17 78.60 61.20 0.00 19.90 317.0 2 18 79.90 61.30 0.00 20.60 337.6 2 19 79.80 64.20 0.00 22.00 359.6 2 20 77.40 60.60 0.00 19.00 378.6 2 21 78.70 68.50 0.00 23.60 402.2 2 22 82.60 65.20 0.00 23.90 426.1 2 23 80.20 62.30 0.00 21.25 447.4 2 24 79.50 63.60 0.00 21.55 468.9 2 25 77.50 62.10 0.00 19.80 488.7 2 26 72.80 58.30 0.00 15.55 504.3 2 27 76.30 54.30 0.00 15.30 519.6 PEAK (ca. 50%) EGG LAYING BY OW FEMALES; 1st ADULT EMERGE 1st GEN 2 28 77.50 58.10 0.00 17.80 537.4 3 1 81.40 58.00 0.00 19.70 557.1 Pn 3 2 71.60 51.80 0.00 11.70 568.8 1st EGG LAYING BY 1st GEN FEMALES 3 3 73.60 41.10 0.00 9.39 578.1 3 4 74.30 41.10 0.00 9.71 587.8 3 5 74.20 49.80 0.00 12.01 599.9 3 6 67.60 50.70 0.00 9.15 609.0 3 7 57.70 39.40 0.00 2.22 611.2 3 8 59.00 31.60 0.00 2.27 613.5 3 9 65.40 29.60 0.00 4.50 618.0 3 10 71.20 43.80 0.00 8.78 626.8 3 11 71.60 58.10 0.00 14.85 641.6 3 12 59.60 43.80 0.00 3.42 645.1 3 13 60.10 36.40 0.00 2.94 648.0 3 14 62.40 36.20 0.00 3.83 651.8 3 15 68.10 30.20 0.00 5.61 657.4 3 16 68.90 39.70 0.00 7.00 664.4 3 17 78.70 56.70 0.00 17.70 682.1 3 18 76.80 65.20 0.00 21.00 703.1 3 19 78.00 66.00 0.00 22.00 725.1 3 20 69.50 53.70 0.00 11.60 736.7 3 21 65.00 40.50 0.00 5.37 742.1 3 22 66.20 38.20 0.00 5.61 747.7 3 23 71.70 38.70 0.00 8.11 755.8 PEAK ADULT EMERGE 1st GEN 3 24 75.80 46.60 0.00 11.70 767.5 3 25 80.30 62.10 0.00 21.20 788.7 3 26 66.10 57.20 0.00 11.65 800.4 3 27 71.40 53.10 0.00 12.25 812.6 3 28 77.80 58.80 0.00 18.30 830.9 3 29 78.40 62.90 0.00 20.65 851.6 3 30 70.60 57.20 0.00 13.90 865.5 3 31 76.60 45.60 0.00 11.81 877.3 4 1 79.80 43.90 0.00 12.94 890.2 4 2 80.60 51.30 0.00 15.95 906.2 4 3 80.70 64.80 0.00 22.75 928.9 4 4 71.50 54.20 0.00 12.85 941.8 4 5 74.80 41.50 0.00 10.02 951.8 4 6 76.10 44.60 0.00 11.32 963.1 4 7 70.20 50.30 0.00 10.25 973.4 4 8 61.50 41.90 0.00 4.02 977.4 4 9 72.70 57.30 0.00 15.00 992.4 4 10 75.90 60.50 0.00 18.20 1010.6 PEAK EGG LAYING BY 1st GEN FEMALES; MAX 2+ GENS. 4 11 75.90 48.20 0.00 12.25 1022.8 4 12 76.30 47.50 0.00 12.21 1035.0 4 13 77.50 52.70 0.00 15.10 1050.1 4 14 79.20 71.80 0.00 25.50 1075.6 4 15 66.00 47.00 0.00 7.01 1082.7 4 16 69.10 38.20 0.00 6.88 1089.5 4 17 76.80 41.80 0.00 11.03 1100.6 4 18 81.90 51.30 0.00 16.60 1117.2 4 19 84.60 59.20 0.00 21.90 1139.1 4 20 74.50 45.20 0.00 10.69 1149.8 4 21 76.40 54.10 0.00 15.25 1165.0 4 22 73.20 65.50 0.00 19.35 1184.4 4 23 74.60 59.50 0.00 17.05 1201.4 4 24 74.00 51.30 0.00 12.65 1214.1 4 25 77.60 53.70 0.00 15.65 1229.7 4 26 74.60 55.60 0.00 15.10 1244.8 4 27 74.00 52.00 0.00 13.00 1257.8 PEAK ADULT EMERGE 2nd GEN; MAX 3+ GENS. 4 28 80.80 51.50 0.00 16.15 1274.0 4 29 81.90 55.70 0.00 18.80 1292.8 4 30 81.30 48.80 0.00 15.15 1307.9 5 1 80.90 59.20 0.00 20.05 1328.0 5 2 82.60 55.40 0.00 19.00 1347.0 5 3 81.70 57.30 0.00 19.50 1366.5 5 4 84.80 55.70 0.00 20.25 1386.7 5 5 85.50 60.40 0.00 22.95 1409.7 5 6 84.80 62.10 0.00 23.45 1433.1 5 7 87.70 57.00 0.00 22.35 1455.5 5 8 90.90 59.70 0.00 24.92 1480.4 5 9 89.80 60.10 0.00 24.76 1505.1 PEAK EGG LAYING BY 2nd GEN FEMALES; MAX 4+ GENS. 5 10 90.30 59.60 0.00 24.68 1529.8 5 11 90.70 58.40 0.00 24.22 1554.0 5 12 91.40 58.30 0.00 24.38 1578.4 5 13 94.30 64.00 0.00 27.90 1606.3 5 14 92.90 65.70 0.00 28.40 1634.7 5 15 85.80 67.70 0.00 26.75 1661.5 5 16 89.70 68.40 0.00 28.84 1690.3 5 17 87.30 67.30 0.00 27.30 1717.6 5 18 88.10 65.50 0.00 26.80 1744.4 PEAK ADULT EMERGE 3rd GEN; MAX 5 GENS. 5 19 88.00 71.80 0.00 29.90 1774.3 5 20 88.40 69.70 0.00 29.03 1803.3 5 21 84.10 68.20 0.00 26.15 1829.5 5 22 88.40 67.90 0.00 28.13 1857.6 5 23 88.60 67.10 0.00 27.81 1885.4 5 24 89.60 67.50 0.00 28.37 1913.8 5 25 84.00 68.60 0.00 26.30 1940.1 5 26 86.10 69.40 0.00 27.75 1967.8 5 27 85.10 69.90 0.00 27.50 1995.3 PEAK EGG LAYING BY 3rd GEN FEMALES; MAX 6+ GENS. 5 28 82.00 70.70 0.00 26.35 2021.7 5 29 83.50 71.40 0.00 27.45 2049.1 5 30 84.60 72.40 0.00 28.50 2077.6 5 31 86.70 70.50 0.00 28.60 2106.2 6 1 88.60 71.00 0.00 29.75 2136.0 6 2 88.80 74.80 0.00 31.72 2167.7 6 3 92.90 75.50 0.00 33.06 2200.8 6 4 89.40 71.10 0.00 30.08 2230.9 6 5 77.20 65.80 0.00 21.50 2252.4 PEAK ADULT EMERGE 4th GEN; MAX 6+ GENS. 6 6 88.40 68.60 0.00 28.48 2280.8 6 7 92.50 66.10 0.00 28.50 2309.3 6 8 90.30 68.70 0.00 29.18 2338.5 6 9 88.70 70.20 0.00 29.39 2367.9 6 10 88.70 69.50 0.00 29.04 2396.9 6 11 85.80 68.10 0.00 26.95 2423.9 6 12 86.90 68.70 0.00 27.80 2451.7 6 13 89.00 68.90 0.00 28.85 2480.5 PEAK EGG LAYING BY 4th GEN FEMALES; MAX 7+ GENS. 6 14 84.60 71.20 0.00 27.90 2508.4 6 15 82.70 69.20 0.00 25.95 2534.4 6 16 84.80 72.10 0.00 28.45 2562.8 6 17 89.40 71.20 0.00 30.13 2593.0 6 18 90.90 73.80 0.00 31.83 2624.8 6 19 93.50 73.20 0.00 32.10 2656.9 6 20 90.90 74.40 0.00 32.12 2689.0 6 21 90.00 73.30 0.00 31.35 2720.4 6 22 90.00 73.50 0.00 31.45 2751.8 PEAK ADULT EMERGE 5th GEN; MAX 8+ GENS. 6 23 91.70 76.50 0.00 33.30 2785.1 6 24 91.40 74.10 0.00 32.10 2817.2 6 25 93.00 73.70 0.00 32.24 2849.5 Px 6 26 92.50 75.00 0.00 32.75 2882.2 Px 6 27 92.60 67.90 0.00 29.39 2911.6 PnHx 6 28 92.40 72.60 0.00 31.60 2943.2 Px Pn 6 29 93.40 81.20 0.00 35.70 2978.9 Pn PEAK EGG LAYING BY 5th GEN FEMALES; MAX 9+ GENS. 6 30 92.40 73.90 0.00 32.22 3011.1 7 1 87.60 72.00 0.00 29.80 3040.9 7 2 85.50 73.90 0.00 29.70 3070.6 7 3 87.20 74.30 0.00 30.75 3101.4 7 4 90.30 72.80 0.00 31.19 3132.6 7 5 87.30 72.60 0.00 29.95 3162.5 7 6 89.40 72.00 0.00 30.53 3193.1 7 7 89.00 72.40 0.00 30.60 3223.7 7 8 82.30 71.00 0.00 26.65 3250.3 7 9 90.60 71.20 0.00 30.49 3280.8 7 10 89.30 73.10 0.00 31.04 3311.8 7 11 93.00 73.10 0.00 31.96 3343.8 7 12 91.20 72.40 0.00 31.23 3375.0 7 13 92.30 72.80 0.00 31.67 3406.7 7 14 93.40 72.70 0.00 31.85 3438.5 7 15 93.40 73.10 0.00 32.03 3470.6 7 16 90.20 71.70 0.00 30.62 3501.2 7 17 86.70 73.50 0.00 30.10 3531.3 7 18 93.10 73.60 0.00 32.21 3563.5 7 19 90.50 73.20 0.00 31.44 3595.0 7 20 90.70 73.40 0.00 31.59 3626.5 7 21 93.90 77.60 0.00 34.18 3660.7 7 22 90.20 77.70 0.00 33.55 3694.3 7 23 90.00 71.40 0.00 30.42 3724.7 7 24 90.10 70.00 0.00 29.76 3754.5 7 25 90.90 71.60 0.00 30.77 3785.2 7 26 91.30 73.50 0.00 31.79 3817.0 7 27 89.40 73.70 0.00 31.37 3848.4 7 28 92.20 73.50 0.00 31.98 3880.4 7 29 86.20 74.40 0.00 30.30 3910.7 7 30 87.70 72.00 0.00 29.85 3940.5 7 31 85.90 71.40 0.00 28.65 3969.2 8 1 77.50 71.20 0.00 24.35 3993.5 8 2 79.60 71.90 0.00 25.75 4019.3 8 3 87.00 68.10 0.00 27.55 4046.8 8 4 88.80 72.20 0.00 30.43 4077.2 8 5 91.80 72.60 0.00 31.47 4108.7 8 6 93.60 71.50 0.00 31.32 4140.0 8 7 91.40 71.70 0.00 30.94 4171.0 8 8 92.20 71.10 0.00 30.84 4201.8 8 9 86.50 72.80 0.00 29.65 4231.4 8 10 89.50 73.10 0.00 31.11 4262.6 8 11 90.20 70.90 0.00 30.23 4292.8 8 12 94.00 74.20 0.00 32.65 4325.4 8 13 91.10 73.10 0.00 31.54 4357.0 8 14 93.10 71.60 0.00 31.27 4388.2 8 15 89.00 71.80 0.00 30.30 4418.5 8 16 85.30 74.40 0.00 29.85 4448.4 8 17 86.20 73.70 0.00 29.95 4478.3 8 18 84.80 72.20 0.00 28.50 4506.8 8 19 78.90 71.50 0.00 25.20 4532.0 8 20 85.20 72.10 0.00 28.65 4560.7 8 21 89.90 72.90 0.00 31.13 4591.8 8 22 88.90 69.90 0.00 29.32 4621.1 8 23 87.50 68.60 0.00 28.05 4649.2 8 24 91.10 68.50 0.00 29.31 4678.5 8 25 90.70 72.80 0.00 31.30 4709.8 8 26 91.30 72.20 0.00 31.16 4740.9 8 27 88.80 73.20 0.00 30.92 4771.9 8 28 91.60 72.40 0.00 31.33 4803.2 8 29 88.20 71.00 0.00 29.59 4832.8 8 30 82.10 71.20 0.00 26.65 4859.4 8 31 80.50 70.70 0.00 25.60 4885.0 9 1 85.10 70.80 0.00 27.95 4913.0 9 2 88.40 70.10 0.00 29.22 4942.2 Px Pn 9 3 89.30 70.30 0.00 29.65 4971.9 Px Pn 9 4 81.60 70.60 0.00 26.10 4998.0 Px Pn 9 5 77.60 71.20 0.00 24.40 5022.4 Px Pn 9 6 87.80 72.10 0.00 29.95 5052.3 Px Pn 9 7 91.20 70.40 0.00 30.26 5082.6 Px Pn 9 8 91.20 69.40 0.00 29.77 5112.3 Px Pn 9 9 91.00 69.20 0.00 29.62 5142.0 Px Pn 9 10 90.10 70.30 0.00 29.91 5171.9 Px Pn 9 11 89.20 70.80 0.00 29.87 5201.7 Px Pn 9 12 92.30 70.10 0.00 30.38 5232.1 Pn 9 13 90.40 72.50 0.00 31.07 5263.2 9 14 93.00 72.50 0.00 31.67 5294.9 9 15 94.30 75.10 0.00 33.11 5328.0 QA 94% ok - OK - 6% of data estimated  
Forecast using: NWS NDFD 7-day Forecast data
Forecast using: 10 yr Hist Avg JAYF1 2006-2015
spotted wing Drosophila model - OSU IPPC model analysis vers. 3.0
Location: 2018 JAYF1 Jay FL
QA 94% ok - OK - 6% of data estimated  - show details
DateDDsEvent
 2-15-18 2751st EGG LAYING BY OW FEMALES
 2-27-18 520PEAK (ca. 50%) EGG LAYING BY OW FEMALES; 1st ADULT EMERGE 1st GEN
 3-2-18 5691st EGG LAYING BY 1st GEN FEMALES
 3-23-18 756PEAK ADULT EMERGE 1st GEN
 4-10-18 1011PEAK EGG LAYING BY 1st GEN FEMALES; MAX 2+ GENS.
 4-27-18 1258PEAK ADULT EMERGE 2nd GEN; MAX 3+ GENS.
 5-9-18 1505PEAK EGG LAYING BY 2nd GEN FEMALES; MAX 4+ GENS.
 5-18-18 1744PEAK ADULT EMERGE 3rd GEN; MAX 5 GENS.
 5-27-18 1995PEAK EGG LAYING BY 3rd GEN FEMALES; MAX 6+ GENS.
 6-5-18 2252PEAK ADULT EMERGE 4th GEN; MAX 6+ GENS.
 6-13-18 2481PEAK EGG LAYING BY 4th GEN FEMALES; MAX 7+ GENS.
 6-22-18 2752PEAK ADULT EMERGE 5th GEN; MAX 8+ GENS.
 6-29-18 2979PEAK EGG LAYING BY 5th GEN FEMALES; MAX 9+ GENS.
degree-day graph of spotted wing Drosophila [fruit] OSU IPPC model analysis vers. 3.0