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invasive insect model of OSU OIPMC model analysis vers. 3.0 |
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Output from uspest.org/wea invasive insect degree-day/phenology model program: Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================ Model species/general links: spotted wing Drosophila [fruit] Type: invasive insect Model source/other links: OSU OIPMC model analysis vers. 3.0 Calculation method: single sine Lower threshold: 50 degrees Fahrenheit Upper threshold: 88 degrees Fahrenheit Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1 Ending date: 9 15 Model validation status: partly validated-has been compared to 2 years of field data in PNW Region of known use: potential for use in US ==============================EVENTS TABLE================================ 1. 261 DDs after Jan 1: 1st egg laying by ow females 2. 510 DDs after Jan 1: Peak (ca. 50%) egg laying by ow females; 1st adult emerge 1st gen 3. 565 DDs after Jan 1: 1st egg laying by 1st gen females 4. 755 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 1st gen 5. 995 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 1st gen females; max 2+ gens. 6. 1249 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 2nd gen; max 3+ gens. 7. 1489 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 2nd gen females; max 4+ gens. 8. 1743 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 3rd gen; max 5 gens. 9. 1983 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 3rd gen females; max 6+ gens. 10. 2237 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 4th gen; max 6+ gens. 11. 2477 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 4th gen females; max 7+ gens. 12. 2731 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 5th gen; max 8+ gens. 13. 2971 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 5th gen females; max 9+ gens. ==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================ Weather station: 2018 HPROS HMMN Prosser Barricade Hanf WA Lat:46.3919 Long:-119.4119 Elev:479 mn day max min precip DD50 CUMDD50 event -- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- ------- 1 1 31.70 16.20 0.00 0.00 0.0 * START * 1 2 30.70 28.50 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 3 35.30 20.60 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 4 32.10 20.30 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 5 35.40 29.40 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 6 36.40 27.10 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 7 35.10 29.30 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 8 37.90 29.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 9 42.50 35.50 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 10 49.20 36.90 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 11 43.20 31.30 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 12 40.80 28.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 13 49.30 34.20 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 14 47.20 29.20 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 15 42.70 28.20 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 16 51.50 29.00 0.00 0.17 0.2 1 17 43.80 31.70 0.00 0.00 0.2 1 18 50.50 39.60 0.00 0.05 0.2 1 19 50.10 34.10 0.00 0.00 0.2 1 20 50.70 36.20 0.00 0.07 0.3 1 21 45.70 29.10 0.00 0.00 0.3 1 22 51.90 27.60 0.00 0.23 0.5 1 23 38.40 26.80 0.00 0.00 0.5 1 24 48.70 34.90 0.00 0.00 0.5 1 25 48.30 31.50 0.00 0.00 0.5 1 26 48.20 35.90 0.00 0.00 0.5 1 27 55.80 38.90 0.00 1.50 2.0 1 28 46.00 38.70 0.00 0.00 2.0 1 29 52.20 38.10 0.00 0.37 2.4 1 30 54.00 29.70 0.00 0.70 3.1 1 31 47.80 25.30 0.00 0.00 3.1 2 1 47.80 24.60 0.00 0.00 3.1 2 2 56.60 36.40 0.00 1.66 4.7 2 3 62.80 41.80 0.00 4.57 9.3 2 4 65.80 45.70 0.00 6.61 15.9 2 5 61.00 35.60 0.00 3.23 19.2 2 6 56.80 26.20 0.00 1.39 20.5 2 7 55.00 39.20 0.00 1.24 21.8 2 8 68.30 42.90 0.00 7.24 29.0 2 9 49.90 36.00 0.00 0.00 29.0 2 10 45.80 22.30 0.00 0.00 29.0 2 11 42.50 25.90 0.00 0.00 29.0 2 12 39.40 22.90 0.00 0.00 29.0 2 13 44.40 14.30 0.00 0.00 29.0 2 14 46.20 26.80 0.00 0.00 29.0 2 15 48.30 26.90 0.00 0.00 29.0 2 16 57.60 32.70 0.00 1.84 30.9 2 17 61.10 30.50 0.00 2.95 33.8 2 18 46.00 23.80 0.00 0.00 33.8 2 19 32.50 14.10 0.00 0.00 33.8 2 20 32.80 8.90 0.00 0.00 33.8 2 21 32.40 14.80 0.00 0.00 33.8 2 22 35.50 16.60 0.00 0.00 33.8 2 23 34.40 8.50 0.00 0.00 33.8 2 24 43.90 29.30 0.00 0.00 33.8 2 25 53.10 34.80 0.00 0.55 34.4 2 26 47.90 29.90 0.00 0.00 34.4 Pn 2 27 51.30 19.50 0.00 0.11 34.5 2 28 52.10 27.20 0.00 0.26 34.7 3 1 50.60 29.50 0.00 0.04 34.8 3 2 51.10 28.90 0.00 0.10 34.9 3 3 48.70 18.60 0.00 0.00 34.9 3 4 52.20 17.60 0.00 0.24 35.1 3 5 52.80 28.80 0.00 0.41 35.5 3 6 50.90 17.90 0.00 0.06 35.6 3 7 50.60 18.90 0.00 0.04 35.6 3 8 56.70 29.30 0.00 1.44 37.1 3 9 55.20 33.20 0.00 1.10 38.2 3 10 57.90 19.00 0.00 1.54 39.7 3 11 60.50 34.90 0.00 2.99 42.7 3 12 64.50 27.50 0.00 4.03 46.7 3 13 60.10 41.40 0.00 3.36 50.1 3 14 59.40 39.50 0.00 2.90 53.0 3 15 56.90 29.60 0.00 1.51 54.5 3 16 56.80 31.10 0.00 1.53 56.0 3 17 57.80 31.40 0.00 1.86 57.9 3 18 59.90 38.80 0.00 3.04 60.9 3 19 59.60 25.30 0.00 2.22 63.2 3 20 61.40 22.00 0.00 2.69 65.9 3 21 54.60 31.50 0.00 0.89 66.7 3 22 58.30 35.70 0.00 2.22 69.0 3 23 53.50 25.90 0.00 0.54 69.5 3 24 53.60 33.50 0.00 0.66 70.2 3 25 56.90 28.90 0.00 1.49 71.7 3 26 52.80 28.90 0.00 0.41 72.1 3 27 66.30 43.40 0.00 6.40 78.5 3 28 64.20 28.50 0.00 3.98 82.4 3 29 66.00 34.70 0.00 5.16 87.6 3 30 66.40 36.40 0.00 5.50 93.1 3 31 58.70 30.70 0.00 2.13 95.2 4 1 61.10 30.90 0.00 2.98 98.2 4 2 55.70 30.30 0.00 1.17 99.4 4 3 52.40 25.20 0.00 0.31 99.7 4 4 56.00 42.30 0.00 1.77 101.5 4 5 53.00 45.00 0.00 0.81 102.3 4 6 62.90 47.80 0.00 5.71 108.0 4 7 65.70 44.80 0.00 6.38 114.4 4 8 63.00 41.20 0.00 4.58 118.9 4 9 63.70 34.50 0.00 4.21 123.1 4 10 69.30 44.90 0.00 8.11 131.3 4 11 60.80 45.70 0.00 4.25 135.5 4 12 59.50 42.60 0.00 3.24 138.7 4 13 59.30 39.90 0.00 2.89 141.6 4 14 66.80 48.70 0.00 7.90 149.5 4 15 62.50 47.90 0.00 5.54 155.1 4 16 58.40 43.10 0.00 2.82 157.9 4 17 61.30 41.70 0.00 3.91 161.8 4 18 62.60 33.00 0.00 3.66 165.5 4 19 68.10 42.20 0.00 7.03 172.5 4 20 71.30 40.30 0.00 8.18 180.7 4 21 66.00 43.40 0.00 6.26 186.9 4 22 64.10 31.70 0.00 4.15 191.1 4 23 68.60 32.90 0.00 6.06 197.2 4 24 75.30 33.50 0.00 9.00 206.2 4 25 79.70 38.20 0.00 11.70 217.9 4 26 82.30 35.90 0.00 12.51 230.4 4 27 85.60 41.80 0.00 15.24 245.6 4 28 68.20 46.40 0.00 7.93 253.5 4 29 69.50 40.50 0.00 7.39 260.9 4 30 68.40 38.90 0.00 6.66 267.6 1st egg laying by ow females 5 1 71.80 43.40 0.00 8.98 276.6 5 2 77.70 39.40 0.00 10.99 287.6 5 3 82.90 41.30 0.00 13.83 301.4 5 4 83.60 57.30 0.00 20.45 321.8 5 5 78.70 56.30 0.00 17.50 339.3 5 6 76.70 58.00 0.00 17.35 356.7 5 7 81.30 56.90 0.00 19.10 375.8 5 8 85.30 48.60 0.00 17.07 392.9 5 9 77.20 54.10 0.00 15.65 408.5 5 10 66.60 45.90 0.00 7.04 415.5 5 11 69.80 48.50 0.00 9.32 424.9 5 12 83.20 42.80 0.00 14.31 439.2 5 13 87.00 49.00 0.00 18.07 457.3 5 14 90.60 48.50 0.00 19.39 476.6 5 15 92.20 49.70 0.00 20.39 497.0 5 16 81.40 62.70 0.00 22.05 519.1 Peak (ca. 50%) egg laying by ow females; 1st adult emerge 1st gen 5 17 82.10 53.20 0.00 17.65 536.7 5 18 73.00 55.30 0.00 14.15 550.9 5 19 79.60 51.10 0.00 15.35 566.2 1st egg laying by 1st gen females 5 20 79.80 53.50 0.00 16.65 582.9 5 21 84.40 49.40 0.00 16.93 599.8 5 22 90.20 51.60 0.00 20.68 620.5 5 23 90.20 61.10 0.00 25.39 645.9 5 24 90.80 62.30 0.00 26.17 672.1 Pn 5 25 82.00 54.30 0.00 18.15 690.2 5 26 81.00 54.20 0.00 17.60 707.8 5 27 84.10 45.10 0.00 15.35 723.2 5 28 90.80 49.70 0.00 19.95 743.1 5 29 79.90 44.70 0.00 13.19 756.3 Peak adult emerge 1st gen 5 30 72.70 41.00 0.00 8.95 765.2 5 31 71.70 43.00 0.00 8.86 774.1 6 1 77.60 49.10 0.00 13.42 787.5 6 2 84.20 44.70 0.00 15.29 802.8 6 3 89.70 48.70 0.00 19.15 822.0 6 4 77.40 54.00 0.00 15.70 837.7 6 5 80.50 47.80 0.00 14.39 852.0 6 6 82.00 47.00 0.00 14.88 866.9 6 7 87.50 47.50 0.00 17.77 884.7 6 8 85.80 51.00 0.00 18.40 903.1 6 9 67.50 51.60 0.00 9.55 912.6 6 10 69.00 48.90 0.00 9.06 921.7 6 11 76.10 37.00 0.00 9.85 931.5 6 12 79.00 42.40 0.00 12.20 943.7 6 13 82.00 51.00 0.00 16.50 960.2 6 14 77.60 47.40 0.00 12.83 973.1 6 15 81.10 47.50 0.00 14.59 987.7 6 16 77.30 57.00 0.00 17.15 1004.8 Peak egg laying by 1st gen females; max 2+ gens. 6 17 84.70 53.40 0.00 19.05 1023.9 6 18 79.10 60.30 0.00 19.70 1043.6 6 19 86.50 59.90 0.00 23.20 1066.8 6 20 92.50 57.20 0.00 24.16 1090.9 6 21 93.40 70.90 0.00 31.00 1121.9 6 22 89.80 54.70 0.00 22.08 1144.0 6 23 87.10 58.80 0.00 22.95 1166.9 6 24 92.90 55.60 0.00 23.49 1190.4 6 25 81.50 59.60 0.00 20.55 1211.0 6 26 82.30 46.40 0.00 14.84 1225.8 Px 6 27 88.10 52.00 0.00 20.05 1245.9 Px Pn 6 28 83.60 61.60 0.00 22.60 1268.5 Px Pn Peak adult emerge 2nd gen; max 3+ gens. 6 29 84.30 56.50 0.00 20.40 1288.9 Pn 6 30 87.30 55.70 0.00 21.50 1310.4 7 1 86.80 55.70 0.00 21.25 1331.6 7 2 77.40 53.20 0.00 15.30 1346.9 7 3 80.50 50.90 0.00 15.70 1362.6 7 4 89.20 51.10 0.00 20.06 1382.7 7 5 98.60 70.60 0.00 31.71 1414.4 7 6 93.60 65.30 0.00 28.37 1442.8 7 7 88.10 56.20 0.00 22.15 1464.9 7 8 93.20 51.10 0.00 21.36 1486.3 7 9 98.90 58.90 0.00 26.41 1512.7 Peak egg laying by 2nd gen females; max 4+ gens. 7 10 85.50 61.40 0.00 23.45 1536.1 7 11 90.40 56.30 0.00 23.08 1559.2 7 12 96.40 58.80 0.00 25.87 1585.1 7 13 106.40 60.70 0.00 28.36 1613.5 7 14 94.90 68.20 0.00 30.02 1643.5 7 15 99.40 52.40 0.00 23.45 1666.9 7 16 102.60 56.70 0.00 26.03 1693.0 7 17 105.10 64.90 0.00 30.03 1723.0 7 18 100.10 60.20 0.00 27.23 1750.2 Peak adult emerge 3rd gen; max 5 gens. 7 19 95.90 58.00 0.00 25.39 1775.6 7 20 89.20 50.30 0.00 19.66 1795.3 7 21 86.60 51.80 0.00 19.20 1814.5 7 22 92.00 64.30 0.00 27.50 1842.0 7 23 98.60 53.40 0.00 23.77 1865.7 7 24 99.40 57.30 0.00 25.76 1891.5 7 25 99.90 63.60 0.00 28.75 1920.2 7 26 100.80 66.30 0.00 30.10 1950.3 7 27 99.10 66.70 0.00 30.04 1980.4 7 28 98.80 64.70 0.00 29.08 2009.4 Peak egg laying by 3rd gen females; max 6+ gens. 7 29 102.90 62.00 0.00 28.47 2037.9 7 30 104.60 59.90 0.00 27.77 2065.7 7 31 103.20 65.30 0.00 29.97 2095.7 8 1 100.40 58.00 0.00 26.26 2121.9 8 2 96.30 56.00 0.00 24.52 2146.4 8 3 87.20 53.50 0.00 20.35 2166.8 8 4 65.40 52.40 0.00 8.90 2175.7 8 5 91.80 62.10 0.00 26.37 2202.1 Px Pn 8 6 97.60 52.80 0.00 23.27 2225.3 8 7 99.60 60.80 0.00 27.42 2252.8 Peak adult emerge 4th gen; max 6+ gens. 8 8 105.60 61.00 0.00 28.39 2281.1 8 9 106.40 61.60 0.00 28.76 2309.9 8 10 107.40 65.40 0.00 30.50 2340.4 8 11 91.30 64.30 0.00 27.30 2367.7 8 12 82.80 51.00 0.00 16.90 2384.6 8 13 87.80 53.60 0.00 20.70 2405.3 8 14 92.00 52.70 0.00 21.80 2427.1 8 15 94.70 51.40 0.00 21.91 2449.0 8 16 99.00 65.00 0.00 29.25 2478.3 Peak egg laying by 4th gen females; max 7+ gens. 8 17 93.50 68.00 0.00 29.64 2507.9 8 18 92.30 54.00 0.00 22.53 2530.4 8 19 89.50 54.30 0.00 21.77 2552.2 8 20 90.10 61.00 0.00 25.31 2577.5 8 21 88.20 60.30 0.00 24.24 2601.8 8 22 94.30 50.80 0.00 21.52 2623.3 8 23 92.10 56.10 0.00 23.51 2646.8 8 24 80.20 57.00 0.00 18.60 2665.4 8 25 76.10 47.30 0.00 12.05 2677.4 8 26 73.30 50.10 0.00 11.70 2689.1 8 27 77.30 52.20 0.00 14.75 2703.9 8 28 83.60 45.60 0.00 15.24 2719.1 8 29 92.50 45.50 0.00 19.00 2738.1 Peak adult emerge 5th gen; max 8+ gens. 8 30 84.60 60.40 0.00 22.50 2760.6 8 31 81.40 50.30 0.00 15.85 2776.5 9 1 80.80 44.50 0.00 13.57 2790.0 9 2 85.60 48.40 0.00 17.14 2807.2 9 3 84.90 53.40 0.00 19.15 2826.3 9 4 83.70 59.40 0.00 21.55 2847.9 9 5 86.80 44.50 0.00 16.50 2864.4 9 6 88.30 45.70 0.00 17.57 2882.0 9 7 93.70 50.40 0.00 21.16 2903.1 9 8 80.70 55.30 0.00 18.00 2921.1 9 9 83.30 48.90 0.00 16.18 2937.3 9 10 79.40 51.70 0.00 15.55 2952.9 9 11 76.70 56.70 0.00 16.70 2969.6 9 12 75.40 51.60 0.00 13.50 2983.1 Peak egg laying by 5th gen females; max 9+ gens. 9 13 75.50 42.50 0.00 10.55 2993.6 9 14 76.40 40.20 0.00 10.53 3004.1 9 15 75.90 46.00 0.00 11.58 3015.7 Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 HPROS PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021