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invasive insect model of OSU OIPMC model analysis vers. 3.0 |
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Output from uspest.org/wea invasive insect degree-day/phenology model program: Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================ Model species/general links: spotted wing Drosophila [fruit] Type: invasive insect Model source/other links: OSU OIPMC model analysis vers. 3.0 Calculation method: single sine Lower threshold: 50 degrees Fahrenheit Upper threshold: 88 degrees Fahrenheit Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1 Ending date: 9 15 Model validation status: partly validated-has been compared to 2 years of field data in PNW Region of known use: potential for use in US ==============================EVENTS TABLE================================ 1. 261 DDs after Jan 1: 1st egg laying by ow females 2. 510 DDs after Jan 1: Peak (ca. 50%) egg laying by ow females; 1st adult emerge 1st gen 3. 565 DDs after Jan 1: 1st egg laying by 1st gen females 4. 755 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 1st gen 5. 995 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 1st gen females; max 2+ gens. 6. 1249 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 2nd gen; max 3+ gens. 7. 1489 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 2nd gen females; max 4+ gens. 8. 1743 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 3rd gen; max 5 gens. 9. 1983 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 3rd gen females; max 6+ gens. 10. 2237 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 4th gen; max 6+ gens. 11. 2477 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 4th gen females; max 7+ gens. 12. 2731 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 5th gen; max 8+ gens. 13. 2971 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 5th gen females; max 9+ gens. ==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================ Weather station: 2018 HOXO Agrimet HOOD RIVER OR Lat45.6842 Long:-121.5181 Elev:510 mn day max min precip DD50 CUMDD50 event -- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- ------- 1 1 35.10 32.30 0.00 0.00 0.0 * START * 1 2 33.20 31.40 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 3 34.40 30.60 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 4 38.00 32.50 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 5 38.40 33.10 0.17 0.00 0.0 1 6 47.60 31.40 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 7 42.20 33.50 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 8 40.50 36.10 0.06 0.00 0.0 1 9 47.20 36.30 0.23 0.00 0.0 1 10 46.80 40.70 0.08 0.00 0.0 1 11 51.20 40.00 1.00 0.17 0.2 1 12 53.50 42.40 0.01 0.86 1.0 1 13 56.20 37.80 0.00 1.59 2.6 1 14 44.30 40.40 0.00 0.00 2.6 1 15 44.50 40.40 0.02 0.00 2.6 1 16 46.60 37.70 0.12 0.00 2.6 1 17 44.20 39.20 0.25 0.00 2.6 1 18 48.80 33.60 0.07 0.00 2.6 1 19 45.10 32.00 0.01 0.00 2.6 1 20 47.10 34.80 0.02 0.00 2.6 1 21 41.50 35.70 0.22 0.00 2.6 1 22 46.90 32.60 0.19 0.00 2.6 1 23 38.10 35.40 0.55 0.00 2.6 1 24 44.20 36.30 0.14 0.00 2.6 1 25 41.80 30.40 0.25 0.00 2.6 1 26 44.40 34.10 0.16 0.00 2.6 1 27 50.10 34.00 0.54 0.00 2.6 1 28 49.20 44.10 0.11 0.00 2.6 1 29 53.90 41.20 0.24 0.95 3.6 1 30 46.00 40.10 0.20 0.00 3.6 1 31 44.60 36.40 0.03 0.00 3.6 2 1 46.50 37.40 0.38 0.00 3.6 2 2 58.20 49.10 0.04 3.77 7.3 2 3 56.20 51.60 0.00 3.90 11.2 2 4 58.30 53.60 0.01 5.95 17.2 2 5 56.60 50.60 0.00 3.60 20.8 2 6 53.70 46.50 0.00 1.20 22.0 2 7 61.10 43.40 0.00 4.03 26.0 2 8 56.80 40.60 0.00 1.96 28.0 2 9 50.80 42.30 0.00 0.11 28.1 2 10 49.90 32.70 0.00 0.00 28.1 2 11 46.90 30.40 0.00 0.00 28.1 2 12 42.90 27.50 0.00 0.00 28.1 2 13 47.60 21.20 0.00 0.00 28.1 2 14 46.00 35.00 0.13 0.00 28.1 2 15 47.20 35.90 0.02 0.00 28.1 2 16 48.60 39.60 0.02 0.00 28.1 2 17 54.00 40.90 0.27 0.97 29.1 2 18 40.00 29.80 0.28 0.00 29.1 2 19 34.10 24.60 0.20 0.00 29.1 2 20 31.10 22.10 0.02 0.00 29.1 2 21 32.00 18.90 0.36 0.00 29.1 2 22 34.30 21.60 0.03 0.00 29.1 2 23 36.00 14.20 0.00 0.00 29.1 2 24 43.90 32.20 0.29 0.00 29.1 2 25 43.60 32.50 0.48 0.00 29.1 2 26 44.30 30.00 0.00 0.00 29.1 2 27 41.60 31.90 0.01 0.00 29.1 2 28 45.00 34.20 0.33 0.00 29.1 3 1 51.10 37.40 0.21 0.13 29.2 3 2 48.50 32.40 0.01 0.00 29.2 3 3 51.80 29.50 0.00 0.22 29.4 3 4 48.60 26.70 0.02 0.00 29.4 3 5 49.80 35.30 0.16 0.00 29.4 3 6 52.20 26.80 0.00 0.28 29.7 3 7 49.20 28.60 0.00 0.00 29.7 3 8 50.20 35.40 0.13 0.01 29.7 3 9 52.70 36.50 0.03 0.48 30.2 3 10 57.90 28.50 0.00 1.79 32.0 3 11 62.00 38.70 0.00 3.88 35.8 3 12 62.90 30.30 0.00 3.60 39.4 3 13 56.30 40.20 0.20 1.75 41.2 3 14 52.50 36.40 0.00 0.42 41.6 3 15 55.60 28.50 0.02 1.10 42.7 3 16 50.20 39.00 0.32 0.01 42.7 3 17 50.70 34.90 0.03 0.06 42.8 3 18 52.10 37.00 0.00 0.34 43.1 3 19 58.30 29.20 0.00 1.94 45.1 3 20 62.50 29.60 0.00 3.41 48.5 3 21 57.60 37.70 0.14 2.08 50.6 3 22 47.50 32.30 0.18 0.00 50.6 3 23 44.30 31.50 0.07 0.00 50.6 3 24 44.80 35.40 0.08 0.00 50.6 3 25 49.70 34.50 0.01 0.00 50.6 3 26 49.90 39.90 0.00 0.00 50.6 3 27 54.00 45.20 0.00 1.21 51.8 3 28 55.20 45.10 0.00 1.68 53.5 3 29 62.00 44.30 0.00 4.57 58.0 3 30 57.30 45.10 0.00 2.58 60.6 3 31 62.30 37.00 0.00 3.85 64.5 4 1 46.30 38.50 0.05 0.00 64.5 4 2 49.80 35.60 0.05 0.00 64.5 4 3 58.20 30.10 0.00 1.94 66.4 4 4 59.90 45.20 0.00 3.76 70.2 4 5 58.20 47.40 0.28 3.36 73.5 4 6 65.60 50.10 0.04 7.85 81.4 4 7 61.90 45.50 0.78 4.73 86.1 4 8 51.90 44.50 0.36 0.42 86.5 4 9 64.60 35.90 0.00 4.69 91.2 4 10 61.30 44.00 0.08 4.21 95.4 4 11 54.50 38.40 0.09 1.04 96.5 4 12 49.70 39.30 0.03 0.00 96.5 4 13 53.60 40.80 0.13 0.84 97.3 4 14 61.00 49.70 0.00 5.37 102.7 4 15 53.80 44.70 0.08 1.09 103.8 4 16 50.30 40.30 0.08 0.02 103.8 4 17 50.40 39.90 0.06 0.03 103.8 4 18 58.90 37.10 0.00 2.53 106.3 4 19 66.60 40.30 0.00 6.06 112.4 4 20 69.10 36.70 0.00 6.69 119.1 4 21 61.40 44.20 0.00 4.28 123.4 4 22 64.90 34.20 0.00 4.66 128.0 4 23 68.30 34.50 0.00 6.10 134.1 4 24 74.90 35.10 0.00 9.04 143.2 4 25 80.20 45.90 0.00 13.66 156.8 4 26 81.60 43.70 0.00 13.76 170.6 4 27 59.00 46.10 0.02 3.49 174.1 4 28 62.10 49.20 0.00 5.73 179.8 4 29 61.30 48.60 0.00 5.15 185.0 4 30 58.60 45.70 0.00 3.24 188.2 5 1 61.60 47.10 0.00 4.91 193.1 5 2 74.80 38.30 0.00 9.46 202.6 5 3 76.10 44.80 0.00 11.36 213.9 5 4 70.20 52.30 0.00 11.25 225.2 5 5 78.20 51.10 0.00 14.65 239.8 5 6 78.20 53.30 0.00 15.75 255.6 5 7 78.50 51.00 0.00 14.75 270.3 1st egg laying by ow females 5 8 84.30 48.90 0.02 16.68 287.0 5 9 65.80 57.60 0.03 11.70 298.7 5 10 61.90 51.90 0.00 6.90 305.6 5 11 67.50 49.80 0.00 8.66 314.3 5 12 83.00 44.30 0.00 14.59 328.9 5 13 89.70 48.50 0.00 19.07 348.0 5 14 88.80 50.60 0.00 19.65 367.6 5 15 77.20 50.70 0.00 13.95 381.6 5 16 65.10 56.90 0.00 11.00 392.6 5 17 67.70 56.20 0.00 11.95 404.5 5 18 71.50 49.10 0.00 10.38 414.9 5 19 75.00 53.80 0.00 14.40 429.3 5 20 70.50 55.80 0.00 13.15 442.4 5 21 75.70 52.20 0.00 13.95 456.4 5 22 88.70 48.00 0.00 18.50 474.9 5 23 81.70 54.70 0.00 18.20 493.1 5 24 77.80 58.30 0.00 18.05 511.1 Peak (ca. 50%) egg laying by ow females; 1st adult emerge 1st gen 5 25 69.20 55.30 0.00 12.25 523.4 5 26 65.10 50.80 0.00 7.95 531.3 5 27 77.80 50.10 0.00 13.95 545.3 5 28 72.40 56.40 0.00 14.40 559.7 5 29 64.00 51.10 0.00 7.55 567.2 1st egg laying by 1st gen females 5 30 67.50 45.30 0.00 7.34 574.6 5 31 63.90 50.00 0.00 6.95 581.5 6 1 68.50 48.50 0.00 8.68 590.2 6 2 84.20 44.80 0.00 15.31 605.5 6 3 76.30 50.90 0.00 13.60 619.1 6 4 67.70 51.30 0.00 9.50 628.6 6 5 71.80 43.40 0.00 8.98 637.6 6 6 81.20 45.40 0.00 14.01 651.6 6 7 67.50 56.90 0.00 12.20 663.8 6 8 73.00 56.70 0.01 14.85 678.6 6 9 63.90 48.50 0.00 6.40 685.0 6 10 57.30 44.40 0.02 2.50 687.5 6 11 70.70 41.30 0.00 8.07 695.6 6 12 80.40 39.90 0.00 12.35 708.0 6 13 67.20 57.40 0.00 12.30 720.3 6 14 67.50 53.30 0.00 10.40 730.7 6 15 70.10 46.10 0.00 8.78 739.4 6 16 73.80 54.20 0.05 14.00 753.4 6 17 83.60 50.10 0.00 16.85 770.3 Peak adult emerge 1st gen 6 18 81.10 58.10 0.00 19.60 789.9 6 19 90.60 56.20 0.00 23.09 813.0 6 20 91.80 58.50 0.02 24.60 837.6 6 21 72.10 61.20 0.00 16.65 854.2 6 22 73.30 61.10 0.00 17.20 871.4 6 23 75.50 59.50 0.00 17.50 888.9 6 24 93.20 51.70 0.00 21.66 910.6 6 25 72.30 59.90 0.00 16.10 926.7 6 26 76.20 52.00 0.00 14.10 940.8 6 27 76.40 48.10 0.00 12.46 953.3 6 28 69.70 54.50 0.00 12.10 965.4 6 29 78.30 53.00 0.00 15.65 981.0 6 30 76.60 58.30 0.00 17.45 998.5 Peak egg laying by 1st gen females; max 2+ gens. 7 1 74.30 58.90 0.00 16.60 1015.1 7 2 67.70 55.50 0.00 11.60 1026.7 7 3 80.70 48.00 0.00 14.56 1041.2 7 4 85.40 50.30 0.00 17.85 1059.1 7 5 84.70 54.00 0.00 19.35 1078.4 7 6 81.60 60.50 0.00 21.05 1099.5 7 7 81.30 60.70 0.00 21.00 1120.5 7 8 89.30 50.50 0.00 19.80 1140.3 7 9 75.20 59.00 0.00 17.10 1157.4 7 10 75.80 60.70 0.00 18.25 1175.6 7 11 90.80 51.80 0.00 20.98 1196.6 7 12 97.90 57.10 0.00 25.38 1222.0 7 13 91.70 59.60 0.00 25.11 1247.1 7 14 96.20 61.60 0.00 27.16 1274.2 Peak adult emerge 2nd gen; max 3+ gens. 7 15 100.00 58.70 0.00 26.52 1300.8 7 16 96.20 62.00 0.00 27.35 1328.1 7 17 90.70 59.20 0.00 24.61 1352.7 7 18 84.20 61.70 0.00 22.95 1375.7 7 19 72.20 59.10 0.00 15.65 1391.3 7 20 77.40 55.40 0.00 16.40 1407.7 7 21 80.80 52.40 0.00 16.60 1424.3 7 22 93.00 51.60 0.00 21.55 1445.9 7 23 94.20 53.60 0.00 22.86 1468.7 7 24 94.90 57.70 0.00 25.01 1493.7 Peak egg laying by 2nd gen females; max 4+ gens. 7 25 94.80 58.30 0.00 25.28 1519.0 7 26 94.90 59.70 0.00 25.98 1545.0 7 27 91.20 59.10 0.00 24.72 1569.7 7 28 90.50 62.90 0.00 26.38 1596.1 7 29 102.30 60.40 0.00 27.67 1623.8 7 30 95.60 59.90 0.00 26.23 1650.0 7 31 89.20 72.50 0.00 30.71 1680.7 8 1 88.00 65.10 0.00 26.55 1707.3 8 2 73.80 60.60 0.00 17.20 1724.5 8 3 73.30 62.50 0.00 17.90 1742.4 8 4 83.50 52.90 0.00 18.20 1760.6 Peak adult emerge 3rd gen; max 5 gens. 8 5 93.70 55.40 0.00 23.60 1784.2 8 6 95.80 57.10 0.00 24.93 1809.1 8 7 100.20 61.00 0.00 27.61 1836.7 8 8 98.90 60.70 0.00 27.25 1863.9 8 9 96.90 64.60 0.00 28.71 1892.7 8 10 90.70 68.50 0.00 29.20 1921.9 8 11 73.50 62.60 0.00 18.05 1939.9 8 12 82.30 55.00 0.00 18.65 1958.6 8 13 89.40 52.30 0.00 20.73 1979.3 8 14 93.00 53.40 0.00 22.44 2001.7 Peak egg laying by 3rd gen females; max 6+ gens. 8 15 94.00 55.00 0.00 23.49 2025.2 8 16 82.30 60.80 0.00 21.55 2046.8 8 17 80.90 59.80 0.00 20.35 2067.1 8 18 88.40 59.60 0.00 23.98 2091.1 8 19 89.50 55.10 0.00 22.17 2113.3 8 20 85.30 57.60 0.00 21.45 2134.7 8 21 88.20 56.60 0.00 22.39 2157.1 8 22 93.20 51.80 0.00 21.71 2178.8 8 23 74.00 61.30 0.00 17.65 2196.5 8 24 67.20 58.20 0.00 12.70 2209.2 8 25 68.40 49.90 0.00 9.15 2218.3 8 26 67.10 58.60 0.00 12.85 2231.2 8 27 79.30 57.40 0.00 18.35 2249.5 Peak adult emerge 4th gen; max 6+ gens. 8 28 86.10 49.20 0.00 17.70 2267.2 8 29 82.70 48.50 0.00 15.73 2282.9 8 30 74.70 60.50 0.00 17.60 2300.5 8 31 73.30 60.10 0.00 16.70 2317.2 9 1 72.50 54.00 0.00 13.25 2330.5 9 2 80.30 46.20 0.00 13.79 2344.3 9 3 77.70 54.90 0.00 16.30 2360.6 9 4 84.00 45.80 0.00 15.50 2376.1 9 5 87.20 45.40 0.00 16.95 2393.0 9 6 88.00 49.40 0.00 18.73 2411.8 9 7 86.10 52.10 0.00 19.10 2430.9 9 8 71.50 54.80 0.00 13.15 2444.0 9 9 76.80 48.20 0.00 12.69 2456.7 9 10 71.60 59.60 0.00 15.60 2472.3 Px 9 11 65.90 55.90 0.02 10.90 2483.2 Peak egg laying by 4th gen females; max 7+ gens. 9 12 65.30 48.20 0.12 7.00 2490.2 9 13 67.60 44.50 0.00 7.22 2497.4 9 14 70.20 42.50 0.00 8.06 2505.5 9 15 66.30 44.80 0.00 6.66 2512.1 Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 HOXO PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021