   |
|
invasive insect model of OSU OIPMC model analysis vers. 3.0 |
|
Output from uspest.org/wea invasive insect degree-day/phenology model program: Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================ Model species/general links: spotted wing Drosophila [fruit] Type: invasive insect Model source/other links: OSU OIPMC model analysis vers. 3.0 Calculation method: single sine Lower threshold: 50 degrees Fahrenheit Upper threshold: 88 degrees Fahrenheit Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1 Ending date: 9 15 Model validation status: partly validated-has been compared to 2 years of field data in PNW Region of known use: potential for use in US ==============================EVENTS TABLE================================ 1. 261 DDs after Jan 1: 1st egg laying by ow females 2. 510 DDs after Jan 1: Peak (ca. 50%) egg laying by ow females; 1st adult emerge 1st gen 3. 565 DDs after Jan 1: 1st egg laying by 1st gen females 4. 755 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 1st gen 5. 995 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 1st gen females; max 2+ gens. 6. 1249 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 2nd gen; max 3+ gens. 7. 1489 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 2nd gen females; max 4+ gens. 8. 1743 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 3rd gen; max 5 gens. 9. 1983 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 3rd gen females; max 6+ gens. 10. 2237 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 4th gen; max 6+ gens. 11. 2477 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 4th gen females; max 7+ gens. 12. 2731 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 5th gen; max 8+ gens. 13. 2971 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 5th gen females; max 9+ gens. ==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================ Weather station: 2018 FOGO Agrimet FOREST GROVE OR Lat45.5531 Long:-123.0833 Elev:180 mn day max min precip DD50 CUMDD50 event -- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- ------- 1 1 46.60 29.60 0.01 0.00 0.0 * START * 1 2 43.60 28.40 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 3 45.20 32.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 4 46.50 32.40 0.14 0.00 0.0 1 5 48.20 40.50 0.38 0.00 0.0 1 6 46.90 37.90 0.02 0.00 0.0 1 7 44.30 39.10 0.20 0.00 0.0 1 8 44.30 38.90 0.10 0.00 0.0 1 9 50.20 40.70 0.35 0.01 0.0 1 10 47.00 38.40 0.07 0.00 0.0 1 11 56.30 47.20 1.01 2.43 2.4 1 12 51.60 47.30 0.00 0.43 2.9 1 13 63.40 40.10 0.00 4.63 7.5 1 14 59.70 38.80 0.01 2.96 10.5 1 15 56.00 38.30 0.11 1.54 12.0 1 16 55.70 42.20 0.15 1.65 13.6 1 17 53.30 40.90 0.23 0.74 14.4 1 18 50.00 41.40 0.27 0.00 14.4 1 19 47.30 40.50 0.06 0.00 14.4 1 20 47.50 40.60 0.04 0.00 14.4 1 21 49.70 43.50 0.25 0.00 14.4 1 22 50.20 39.40 0.29 0.01 14.4 1 23 49.40 38.90 0.79 0.00 14.4 1 24 48.90 38.20 0.63 0.00 14.4 1 25 48.50 38.10 0.50 0.00 14.4 1 26 44.30 38.00 0.56 0.00 14.4 1 27 54.00 41.70 0.18 1.00 15.4 1 28 59.60 47.00 0.04 3.94 19.3 1 29 51.30 45.30 0.46 0.26 19.6 1 30 49.10 37.20 0.08 0.00 19.6 1 31 45.50 36.10 0.00 0.00 19.6 2 1 47.20 40.60 0.12 0.00 19.6 2 2 60.60 43.50 0.00 3.83 23.4 2 3 57.00 45.30 0.01 2.47 25.9 2 4 61.20 47.90 0.00 4.91 30.8 2 5 58.00 39.30 0.00 2.33 33.1 2 6 50.00 32.80 0.00 0.00 33.1 2 7 55.20 35.60 0.00 1.17 34.3 2 8 52.30 39.20 0.00 0.42 34.7 2 9 49.50 38.10 0.00 0.00 34.7 2 10 50.00 29.70 0.01 0.00 34.7 2 11 49.10 32.20 0.00 0.00 34.7 2 12 47.20 29.90 0.00 0.00 34.7 2 13 51.00 24.60 0.00 0.08 34.8 2 14 49.20 35.20 0.18 0.00 34.8 2 15 49.90 33.90 0.01 0.00 34.8 2 16 52.50 39.60 0.01 0.48 35.3 2 17 52.70 39.50 0.04 0.53 35.8 2 18 40.00 31.70 0.44 0.00 35.8 2 19 39.90 29.50 0.00 0.00 35.8 2 20 37.00 26.90 0.18 0.00 35.8 2 21 36.30 27.10 0.15 0.00 35.8 2 22 39.50 27.50 0.15 0.00 35.8 2 23 37.20 21.50 0.11 0.00 35.8 2 24 48.30 32.60 0.28 0.00 35.8 2 25 45.30 32.90 0.35 0.00 35.8 2 26 45.80 31.50 0.02 0.00 35.8 2 27 44.70 30.60 0.01 0.00 35.8 2 28 45.10 40.00 0.45 0.00 35.8 3 1 45.50 33.90 0.16 0.00 35.8 3 2 49.10 34.30 0.10 0.00 35.8 3 3 50.90 35.30 0.05 0.09 35.9 3 4 50.30 27.90 0.01 0.01 35.9 3 5 50.80 34.80 0.02 0.08 36.0 3 6 55.50 28.30 0.00 1.07 37.1 3 7 52.50 34.10 0.00 0.40 37.5 3 8 57.00 38.70 0.46 1.92 39.4 3 9 53.40 38.10 0.00 0.70 40.1 3 10 60.00 29.10 0.01 2.50 42.6 3 11 67.60 39.10 0.00 6.34 48.9 3 12 67.80 39.50 0.00 6.48 55.4 3 13 56.10 43.60 0.45 1.91 57.3 3 14 53.60 38.20 0.17 0.76 58.1 3 15 52.90 31.80 0.20 0.46 58.5 3 16 53.20 40.00 0.03 0.69 59.2 3 17 53.50 36.50 0.03 0.69 59.9 3 18 51.00 37.70 0.06 0.12 60.0 3 19 58.40 31.10 0.00 2.05 62.1 3 20 60.30 30.90 0.00 2.69 64.8 3 21 51.00 33.10 0.22 0.10 64.9 3 22 50.60 39.00 0.37 0.06 64.9 3 23 44.70 33.20 0.62 0.00 64.9 3 24 42.20 34.90 0.25 0.00 64.9 3 25 53.60 36.00 0.04 0.71 65.6 3 26 49.60 36.60 0.01 0.00 65.6 3 27 56.80 43.70 0.00 2.21 67.8 3 28 57.50 37.70 0.01 2.04 69.9 3 29 59.90 34.20 0.00 2.72 72.6 3 30 58.30 40.50 0.00 2.54 75.2 3 31 64.40 41.70 0.00 5.27 80.4 4 1 52.30 37.10 0.01 0.39 80.8 4 2 54.50 34.90 0.04 0.94 81.7 4 3 51.10 30.30 0.00 0.11 81.9 4 4 57.10 43.30 0.00 2.30 84.2 4 5 51.10 45.30 0.26 0.21 84.4 4 6 67.90 51.00 0.09 9.45 93.8 4 7 58.70 46.70 1.01 3.46 97.3 4 8 54.60 45.00 0.67 1.43 98.7 4 9 63.80 40.00 0.00 4.79 103.5 4 10 61.20 48.50 0.14 5.07 108.6 4 11 55.70 41.40 0.13 1.60 110.2 4 12 50.30 39.60 0.46 0.02 110.2 4 13 53.40 44.20 0.33 0.91 111.1 4 14 56.90 48.10 0.11 2.88 114.0 4 15 48.70 42.60 0.64 0.00 114.0 4 16 49.50 40.30 0.11 0.00 114.0 4 17 54.90 37.00 0.04 1.12 115.1 4 18 61.50 40.40 0.00 3.85 118.9 4 19 66.10 38.20 0.00 5.57 124.5 4 20 64.50 37.00 0.00 4.76 129.3 4 21 60.40 43.10 0.00 3.68 133.0 4 22 63.70 39.50 0.00 4.69 137.6 4 23 71.70 39.20 0.00 8.19 145.8 4 24 76.80 44.60 0.00 11.65 157.5 4 25 83.50 46.70 0.00 15.52 173.0 4 26 84.90 50.20 0.00 17.55 190.6 4 27 55.00 48.30 0.11 2.02 192.6 4 28 60.10 43.90 0.35 3.66 196.2 4 29 59.40 44.60 0.11 3.44 199.7 4 30 57.20 45.60 0.05 2.60 202.3 5 1 59.30 46.00 0.00 3.61 205.9 5 2 73.10 42.40 0.00 9.40 215.3 5 3 76.40 45.10 0.00 11.59 226.9 5 4 66.80 49.10 0.00 8.04 234.9 5 5 74.30 51.30 0.00 12.80 247.7 5 6 71.60 51.30 0.00 11.45 259.2 5 7 76.50 52.20 0.00 14.35 273.5 1st egg laying by ow females 5 8 77.20 49.00 0.01 13.18 286.7 5 9 68.20 53.40 0.00 10.80 297.5 5 10 62.90 47.50 0.10 5.63 303.1 5 11 69.90 40.40 0.00 7.56 310.7 5 12 80.50 48.90 0.00 14.79 325.5 5 13 88.30 49.80 0.00 19.04 344.5 5 14 88.90 53.80 0.00 21.29 365.8 5 15 70.60 53.70 0.00 12.15 378.0 5 16 68.20 54.70 0.00 11.45 389.4 5 17 66.80 53.60 0.00 10.20 399.6 5 18 64.80 50.70 0.00 7.75 407.4 5 19 71.30 51.90 0.00 11.60 419.0 5 20 69.60 52.80 0.00 11.20 430.2 5 21 73.70 44.30 0.00 10.09 440.2 5 22 87.70 51.50 0.00 19.60 459.8 5 23 81.40 56.00 0.00 18.70 478.5 5 24 72.80 56.20 0.00 14.50 493.0 5 25 71.10 50.50 0.00 10.80 503.8 5 26 67.50 44.30 0.00 7.13 511.0 Peak (ca. 50%) egg laying by ow females; 1st adult emerge 1st gen 5 27 78.50 48.30 0.00 13.57 524.5 5 28 70.90 51.60 0.00 11.25 535.8 5 29 65.50 45.70 0.00 6.47 542.3 5 30 67.20 38.80 0.00 6.12 548.4 5 31 62.90 46.30 0.00 5.36 553.7 6 1 69.50 39.90 0.01 7.30 561.0 6 2 82.00 48.10 0.00 15.24 576.3 1st egg laying by 1st gen females 6 3 70.60 52.10 0.00 11.35 587.6 6 4 65.80 45.00 0.00 6.47 594.1 6 5 71.90 42.00 0.00 8.76 602.9 6 6 78.00 46.40 0.00 12.72 615.6 6 7 71.30 52.70 0.00 12.00 627.6 6 8 64.30 54.20 0.57 9.25 636.8 6 9 63.70 47.50 0.16 6.02 642.9 6 10 56.60 47.50 0.28 2.62 645.5 6 11 69.60 43.40 0.01 7.94 653.4 6 12 78.10 44.50 0.00 12.26 665.7 6 13 68.50 52.40 0.00 10.45 676.1 6 14 65.80 46.80 0.00 6.87 683.0 6 15 69.30 51.60 0.00 10.45 693.4 6 16 76.90 50.10 0.00 13.50 706.9 6 17 87.60 53.90 0.00 20.75 727.7 6 18 84.70 52.30 0.00 18.50 746.2 6 19 87.60 51.90 0.00 19.75 765.9 Peak adult emerge 1st gen 6 20 93.80 57.00 0.00 24.41 790.4 6 21 71.20 57.90 0.01 14.55 804.9 6 22 76.10 57.50 0.00 16.80 821.7 6 23 74.20 54.40 0.00 14.30 836.0 6 24 90.30 54.20 0.01 22.00 858.0 6 25 70.90 52.60 0.06 11.75 869.8 6 26 73.00 45.70 0.00 10.09 879.8 6 27 74.20 50.90 0.00 12.55 892.4 6 28 73.20 46.60 0.00 10.42 902.8 6 29 77.50 48.10 0.00 13.01 915.8 6 30 77.90 53.90 0.00 15.90 931.7 7 1 74.50 56.20 0.00 15.35 947.1 7 2 68.40 52.70 0.00 10.55 957.6 7 3 75.50 43.30 0.00 10.73 968.3 7 4 79.60 58.50 0.00 19.05 987.4 7 5 83.80 53.70 0.00 18.75 1006.1 Peak egg laying by 1st gen females; max 2+ gens. 7 6 78.80 53.10 0.00 15.95 1022.1 7 7 79.40 52.60 0.00 16.00 1038.1 7 8 85.80 53.60 0.00 19.70 1057.8 7 9 68.80 52.40 0.02 10.60 1068.4 7 10 75.30 57.20 0.00 16.25 1084.6 7 11 86.30 59.50 0.00 22.90 1107.5 7 12 95.20 63.60 0.00 27.91 1135.5 7 13 91.10 62.40 0.00 26.31 1161.8 7 14 90.60 55.30 0.00 22.65 1184.4 7 15 97.80 60.20 0.00 26.82 1211.2 7 16 96.00 60.40 0.00 26.55 1237.8 7 17 90.00 57.40 0.00 23.49 1261.3 Peak adult emerge 2nd gen; max 3+ gens. 7 18 82.80 54.90 0.00 18.85 1280.1 7 19 69.00 55.20 0.00 12.10 1292.2 7 20 76.80 45.70 0.00 11.94 1304.2 7 21 78.50 52.70 0.00 15.60 1319.8 7 22 94.70 53.90 0.00 23.13 1342.9 7 23 93.70 56.60 0.00 24.19 1367.1 7 24 93.80 55.20 0.00 23.53 1390.6 7 25 94.40 56.00 0.00 24.07 1414.7 7 26 95.20 55.70 0.00 24.12 1438.8 7 27 90.30 55.30 0.00 22.55 1461.3 7 28 89.80 56.40 0.00 22.92 1484.3 7 29 99.60 59.70 0.00 26.91 1511.2 Peak egg laying by 2nd gen females; max 4+ gens. 7 30 92.60 63.60 0.00 27.31 1538.5 7 31 88.90 58.40 0.00 23.58 1562.1 8 1 85.80 54.50 0.00 20.15 1582.2 8 2 72.00 55.40 0.00 13.70 1595.9 8 3 74.40 57.40 0.00 15.90 1611.8 8 4 85.40 52.10 0.00 18.75 1630.6 8 5 90.20 55.90 0.00 22.81 1653.4 8 6 91.00 58.80 0.00 24.51 1677.9 8 7 95.70 58.60 0.00 25.63 1703.5 8 8 93.80 59.50 0.00 25.62 1729.1 8 9 97.40 60.70 0.00 26.97 1756.1 Peak adult emerge 3rd gen; max 5 gens. 8 10 89.70 61.20 0.00 25.27 1781.4 8 11 77.10 56.80 0.00 16.95 1798.3 8 12 75.80 53.50 0.00 14.65 1813.0 8 13 90.40 55.90 0.00 22.88 1835.9 8 14 94.10 57.80 0.00 24.87 1860.7 8 15 90.90 58.40 0.00 24.28 1885.0 8 16 82.50 56.60 0.00 19.55 1904.6 8 17 81.30 45.80 0.00 14.17 1918.7 8 18 86.60 49.50 0.00 18.07 1936.8 8 19 88.20 52.50 0.00 20.34 1957.1 8 20 85.10 56.50 0.00 20.80 1977.9 8 21 91.10 62.60 0.00 26.41 2004.4 Peak egg laying by 3rd gen females; max 6+ gens. 8 22 92.80 53.70 0.00 22.53 2026.9 8 23 74.50 52.70 0.00 13.60 2040.5 8 24 70.70 49.80 0.00 10.26 2050.7 8 25 72.00 44.80 0.00 9.38 2060.1 8 26 68.10 50.00 0.00 9.05 2069.2 8 27 77.50 59.10 0.00 18.30 2087.5 8 28 87.90 49.70 0.00 18.81 2106.3 8 29 85.30 49.80 0.00 17.56 2123.8 8 30 73.60 52.70 0.00 13.15 2137.0 8 31 74.40 55.60 0.00 15.00 2152.0 9 1 74.30 44.00 0.00 10.31 2162.3 9 2 81.50 46.30 0.00 14.41 2176.7 9 3 78.20 51.50 0.00 14.85 2191.6 9 4 83.90 47.90 0.00 16.12 2207.7 9 5 91.10 57.00 0.00 23.65 2231.3 9 6 87.20 50.70 0.00 18.95 2250.3 Peak adult emerge 4th gen; max 6+ gens. 9 7 82.10 49.90 0.00 16.00 2266.3 9 8 73.90 54.10 0.00 14.00 2280.3 9 9 78.20 48.20 0.00 13.39 2293.7 9 10 76.10 57.10 0.02 16.60 2310.3 Px 9 11 65.60 50.90 0.26 8.25 2318.5 9 12 65.40 50.20 0.06 7.80 2326.3 9 13 68.70 49.10 0.04 8.98 2335.3 9 14 67.60 45.20 0.01 7.36 2342.7 9 15 63.90 47.00 0.00 6.00 2348.7 Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 FOGO PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021