Online Phenology Models and Degree-day Calculator
immaturedamageadult
spotted wing Drosophila [fruit]
invasive insect model of OSU IPPC model analysis vers. 3.0


Output from uspest.org/wea invasive insect degree-day/phenology model program:
	Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================ Model species/general links: spotted wing Drosophila [fruit] Type: invasive insect Model source/other links: OSU IPPC model analysis vers. 3.0 Calculation method: single sine Lower threshold: 50 degrees Fahrenheit Upper threshold: 88 degrees Fahrenheit Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1 Ending date: 9 15 Model validation status: partly validated-has been compared to 2 years of field data in PNW Region of known use: potential for use in US ==============================EVENTS TABLE================================ 1. 261 DDs after Jan 1: 1st EGG LAYING BY OW FEMALES 2. 510 DDs after Jan 1: PEAK (ca. 50%) EGG LAYING BY OW FEMALES; 1st ADULT EMERGE 1st GEN 3. 565 DDs after Jan 1: 1st EGG LAYING BY 1st GEN FEMALES 4. 755 DDs after Jan 1: PEAK ADULT EMERGE 1st GEN 5. 995 DDs after Jan 1: PEAK EGG LAYING BY 1st GEN FEMALES; MAX 2+ GENS. 6. 1249 DDs after Jan 1: PEAK ADULT EMERGE 2nd GEN; MAX 3+ GENS. 7. 1489 DDs after Jan 1: PEAK EGG LAYING BY 2nd GEN FEMALES; MAX 4+ GENS. 8. 1743 DDs after Jan 1: PEAK ADULT EMERGE 3rd GEN; MAX 5 GENS. 9. 1983 DDs after Jan 1: PEAK EGG LAYING BY 3rd GEN FEMALES; MAX 6+ GENS. 10. 2237 DDs after Jan 1: PEAK ADULT EMERGE 4th GEN; MAX 6+ GENS. 11. 2477 DDs after Jan 1: PEAK EGG LAYING BY 4th GEN FEMALES; MAX 7+ GENS. 12. 2731 DDs after Jan 1: PEAK ADULT EMERGE 5th GEN; MAX 8+ GENS. 13. 2971 DDs after Jan 1: PEAK EGG LAYING BY 5th GEN FEMALES; MAX 9+ GENS. ==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================ Weather station: 2018 D0489 APRSWXNET Danbury DW0489 CT Lat41.4006 Long:-73.4803 Elev:617 mn day max min precip DD50 CUMDD50 event -- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- ------- 1 1 35.70 18.60 0.12 0.00 0.0 * START *NMME 1 2 35.60 18.40 0.12 0.00 0.0 NMME 1 3 35.50 18.10 0.12 0.00 0.0 NMME 1 4 35.30 17.90 0.12 0.00 0.0 NMME 1 5 35.20 17.80 0.12 0.00 0.0 NMME 1 6 35.10 17.60 0.12 0.00 0.0 NMME 1 7 35.00 17.40 0.12 0.00 0.0 NMME 1 8 34.90 17.30 0.12 0.00 0.0 NMME 1 9 34.90 17.10 0.12 0.00 0.0 NMME 1 10 34.80 17.00 0.12 0.00 0.0 NMME 1 11 34.70 16.90 0.12 0.00 0.0 NMME 1 12 34.70 16.80 0.12 0.00 0.0 NMME 1 13 34.60 16.70 0.12 0.00 0.0 NMME 1 14 34.60 16.60 0.12 0.00 0.0 NMME 1 15 34.60 16.50 0.11 0.00 0.0 NMME 1 16 34.60 16.50 0.11 0.00 0.0 NMME 1 17 34.60 16.50 0.11 0.00 0.0 NMME 1 18 34.60 16.40 0.11 0.00 0.0 NMME 1 19 34.60 16.40 0.11 0.00 0.0 NMME 1 20 34.60 16.40 0.11 0.00 0.0 NMME 1 21 34.70 16.40 0.11 0.00 0.0 NMME 1 22 34.70 16.40 0.11 0.00 0.0 NMME 1 23 34.80 16.50 0.11 0.00 0.0 NMME 1 24 34.90 16.50 0.11 0.00 0.0 NMME 1 25 34.90 16.60 0.11 0.00 0.0 NMME 1 26 35.00 16.60 0.11 0.00 0.0 NMME 1 27 35.10 16.70 0.11 0.00 0.0 NMME 1 28 35.20 16.80 0.11 0.00 0.0 NMME 1 29 35.30 16.90 0.11 0.00 0.0 NMME 1 30 35.50 17.00 0.11 0.00 0.0 NMME 1 31 35.60 17.20 0.11 0.00 0.0 NMME 2 1 35.30 16.90 0.10 0.00 0.0 NMME 2 2 35.50 17.00 0.10 0.00 0.0 NMME 2 3 35.60 17.20 0.10 0.00 0.0 NMME 2 4 35.80 17.30 0.10 0.00 0.0 NMME 2 5 35.90 17.50 0.10 0.00 0.0 NMME 2 6 36.10 17.60 0.10 0.00 0.0 NMME 2 7 36.30 17.80 0.10 0.00 0.0 NMME 2 8 36.50 18.00 0.10 0.00 0.0 NMME 2 9 36.60 18.10 0.10 0.00 0.0 NMME 2 10 36.80 18.30 0.10 0.00 0.0 NMME 2 11 37.00 18.50 0.10 0.00 0.0 NMME 2 12 37.20 18.70 0.10 0.00 0.0 NMME 2 13 37.40 18.90 0.11 0.00 0.0 NMME 2 14 37.60 19.00 0.11 0.00 0.0 NMME 2 15 37.80 19.20 0.11 0.00 0.0 NMME 2 16 38.00 19.40 0.11 0.00 0.0 NMME 2 17 38.30 19.60 0.11 0.00 0.0 NMME 2 18 38.50 19.80 0.11 0.00 0.0 NMME 2 19 38.70 20.00 0.11 0.00 0.0 NMME 2 20 38.90 20.20 0.11 0.00 0.0 NMME 2 21 39.20 20.50 0.11 0.00 0.0 NMME 2 22 39.40 20.70 0.11 0.00 0.0 NMME 2 23 39.70 20.90 0.12 0.00 0.0 NMME 2 24 39.90 21.10 0.12 0.00 0.0 NMME 2 25 40.20 21.30 0.12 0.00 0.0 NMME 2 26 40.40 21.60 0.12 0.00 0.0 NMME 2 27 40.70 21.80 0.12 0.00 0.0 NMME 2 28 41.00 22.10 0.12 0.00 0.0 NMME 3 1 41.10 22.10 0.12 0.00 0.0 NMME 3 2 41.40 22.40 0.12 0.00 0.0 NMME 3 3 41.70 22.60 0.12 0.00 0.0 NMME 3 4 42.00 22.90 0.12 0.00 0.0 NMME 3 5 42.30 23.20 0.12 0.00 0.0 NMME 3 6 42.60 23.40 0.12 0.00 0.0 NMME 3 7 42.90 23.70 0.13 0.00 0.0 NMME 3 8 43.20 24.00 0.13 0.00 0.0 NMME 3 9 43.50 24.30 0.13 0.00 0.0 NMME 3 10 43.80 24.60 0.13 0.00 0.0 NMME 3 11 44.20 24.90 0.13 0.00 0.0 NMME 3 12 44.50 25.20 0.13 0.00 0.0 NMME 3 13 44.80 25.50 0.13 0.00 0.0 NMME 3 14 45.20 25.80 0.13 0.00 0.0 NMME 3 15 45.50 26.10 0.14 0.00 0.0 NMME 3 16 45.90 26.40 0.14 0.00 0.0 NMME 3 17 46.30 26.80 0.14 0.00 0.0 NMME 3 18 46.60 27.10 0.14 0.00 0.0 NMME 3 19 47.00 27.50 0.14 0.00 0.0 NMME 3 20 47.40 27.80 0.14 0.00 0.0 NMME 3 21 47.80 28.20 0.14 0.00 0.0 NMME 3 22 48.20 28.50 0.14 0.00 0.0 NMME 3 23 48.60 28.90 0.14 0.00 0.0 NMME 3 24 49.00 29.30 0.14 0.00 0.0 NMME 3 25 49.40 29.70 0.14 0.00 0.0 NMME 3 26 49.80 30.00 0.14 0.00 0.0 NMME 3 27 50.20 30.40 0.14 0.01 0.0 NMME 3 28 50.70 30.80 0.14 0.06 0.1 NMME 3 29 51.10 31.20 0.14 0.11 0.2 NMME 3 30 51.50 31.60 0.14 0.18 0.4 NMME 3 31 52.00 32.10 0.14 0.27 0.6 NMME 4 1 52.60 32.70 0.13 0.40 1.0 NMME 4 2 53.00 33.10 0.13 0.50 1.5 NMME 4 3 53.50 33.50 0.13 0.63 2.2 NMME 4 4 53.90 33.90 0.12 0.75 2.9 NMME 4 5 54.30 34.30 0.12 0.87 3.8 NMME 4 6 54.80 34.70 0.12 1.02 4.8 NMME 4 7 55.20 35.10 0.12 1.15 5.9 NMME 4 8 55.60 35.50 0.12 1.29 7.2 NMME 4 9 56.00 35.80 0.12 1.43 8.7 NMME 4 10 56.40 36.20 0.12 1.58 10.3 NMME 4 11 56.80 36.60 0.12 1.74 12.0 NMME 4 12 57.20 37.00 0.12 1.90 13.9 NMME 4 13 57.60 37.30 0.12 2.06 16.0 NMME 4 14 58.00 37.70 0.12 2.23 18.2 NMME 4 15 58.30 38.00 0.12 2.36 20.5 NMME 4 16 58.70 38.40 0.12 2.54 23.1 NMME 4 17 59.10 38.70 0.12 2.72 25.8 NMME 4 18 59.40 39.10 0.12 2.86 28.7 NMME 4 19 59.80 39.40 0.12 3.05 31.7 NMME 4 20 60.10 39.70 0.12 3.20 34.9 NMME 4 21 60.50 40.10 0.12 3.40 38.3 NMME 4 22 60.80 40.40 0.12 3.55 41.9 NMME 4 23 61.20 40.70 0.12 3.75 45.6 NMME 4 24 61.50 41.00 0.12 3.91 49.5 NMME 4 25 61.80 41.30 0.12 4.07 53.6 NMME 4 26 62.10 41.60 0.12 4.24 57.8 NMME 4 27 62.50 41.90 0.12 4.45 62.3 NMME 4 28 62.80 42.20 0.12 4.63 66.9 NMME 4 29 63.10 42.50 0.12 4.80 71.7 NMME 4 30 63.40 42.80 0.12 4.98 76.7 NMME 5 1 63.30 42.70 0.14 4.92 81.6 NMME 5 2 63.60 42.90 0.14 5.08 86.7 NMME 5 3 63.90 43.20 0.14 5.27 92.0 NMME 5 4 64.10 43.50 0.14 5.40 97.4 NMME 5 5 64.40 43.80 0.14 5.59 103.0 NMME 5 6 64.70 44.10 0.14 5.78 108.7 NMME 5 7 65.00 44.40 0.13 5.98 114.7 NMME 5 8 65.30 44.70 0.13 6.17 120.9 NMME 5 9 65.60 45.00 0.13 6.37 127.3 NMME 5 10 65.90 45.30 0.13 6.58 133.8 NMME 5 11 66.20 45.60 0.13 6.78 140.6 NMME 5 12 66.50 45.90 0.13 6.99 147.6 NMME 5 13 66.80 46.20 0.13 7.21 154.8 NMME 5 14 67.10 46.50 0.13 7.42 162.2 NMME 5 15 67.40 46.80 0.13 7.64 169.9 NMME 5 16 67.70 47.10 0.13 7.87 177.8 NMME 5 17 68.00 47.40 0.13 8.10 185.9 NMME 5 18 68.30 47.80 0.13 8.36 194.2 NMME 5 19 68.60 48.10 0.13 8.60 202.8 NMME 5 20 68.90 48.40 0.14 8.84 211.6 NMME 5 21 69.20 48.70 0.14 9.09 220.7 NMME 5 22 69.50 49.10 0.14 9.38 230.1 NMME 5 23 69.70 49.40 0.14 9.59 239.7 NMME 5 24 70.00 49.70 0.14 9.87 249.6 NMME 5 25 70.30 50.10 0.14 10.20 259.8 NMME 5 26 70.60 50.40 0.14 10.50 270.3 NMME 1st EGG LAYING BY OW FEMALES 5 27 70.90 50.70 0.14 10.80 281.1 NMME 5 28 71.20 51.10 0.14 11.15 292.2 NMME 5 29 71.50 51.40 0.14 11.45 303.7 NMME 5 30 71.80 51.80 0.14 11.80 315.5 NMME 5 31 72.10 52.10 0.14 12.10 327.6 NMME 6 1 73.30 53.40 0.12 13.35 340.9 NMME 6 2 73.60 53.70 0.12 13.65 354.6 NMME 6 3 73.90 54.10 0.12 14.00 368.6 NMME 6 4 74.20 54.40 0.12 14.30 382.9 NMME 6 5 74.50 54.70 0.12 14.60 397.5 NMME 6 6 74.70 55.10 0.12 14.90 412.4 NMME 6 7 75.00 55.40 0.12 15.20 427.6 NMME 6 8 75.30 55.70 0.12 15.50 443.1 NMME 6 9 75.50 56.00 0.13 15.75 458.8 NMME 6 10 75.80 56.30 0.13 16.05 474.9 NMME 6 11 76.00 56.60 0.13 16.30 491.2 NMME 6 12 76.30 56.90 0.13 16.60 507.8 NMME 6 13 76.50 57.20 0.13 16.85 524.6 NMME PEAK (ca. 50%) EGG LAYING BY OW FEMALES; 1st ADULT EMERGE 1st GEN 6 14 76.80 57.40 0.13 17.10 541.7 NMME 6 15 77.00 57.70 0.13 17.35 559.1 NMME 6 16 77.20 58.00 0.13 17.60 576.7 NMME 1st EGG LAYING BY 1st GEN FEMALES 6 17 77.50 58.20 0.13 17.85 594.5 NMME 6 18 77.70 58.50 0.13 18.10 612.6 NMME 6 19 77.90 58.70 0.13 18.30 630.9 NMME 6 20 78.10 58.90 0.13 18.50 649.4 NMME 6 21 78.30 59.20 0.13 18.75 668.2 NMME 6 22 78.60 59.40 0.13 19.00 687.2 NMME 6 23 78.80 59.60 0.13 19.20 706.4 NMME 6 24 79.00 59.80 0.13 19.40 725.8 NMME 6 25 79.10 60.00 0.13 19.55 745.3 NMME 6 26 79.30 60.20 0.13 19.75 765.1 NMME PEAK ADULT EMERGE 1st GEN 6 27 79.50 60.40 0.13 19.95 785.0 NMME 6 28 79.70 60.60 0.13 20.15 805.2 NMME 6 29 79.90 60.80 0.13 20.35 825.5 NMME 6 30 80.10 60.90 0.13 20.50 846.0 NMME 7 1 80.80 61.70 0.13 21.25 867.3 NMME 7 2 80.90 61.80 0.13 21.35 888.6 NMME 7 3 81.10 62.00 0.13 21.55 910.2 NMME 7 4 81.20 62.10 0.13 21.65 931.8 NMME 7 5 81.40 62.30 0.13 21.85 953.7 NMME 7 6 81.50 62.40 0.13 21.95 975.6 NMME 7 7 81.60 62.50 0.13 22.05 997.7 NMME PEAK EGG LAYING BY 1st GEN FEMALES; MAX 2+ GENS. 7 8 81.80 62.70 0.13 22.25 1019.9 NMME 7 9 81.90 62.80 0.13 22.35 1042.3 NMME 7 10 82.00 62.90 0.13 22.45 1064.7 NMME 7 11 82.10 63.00 0.13 22.55 1087.3 NMME 7 12 82.20 63.10 0.13 22.65 1109.9 NMME 7 13 82.30 63.20 0.13 22.75 1132.7 NMME 7 14 82.30 63.20 0.13 22.75 1155.4 NMME 7 15 82.40 63.30 0.13 22.85 1178.3 NMME 7 16 82.50 63.40 0.13 22.95 1201.2 NMME 7 17 82.50 63.50 0.13 23.00 1224.2 NMME 7 18 82.60 63.50 0.13 23.05 1247.3 NMME 7 19 82.60 63.60 0.13 23.10 1270.4 NMME PEAK ADULT EMERGE 2nd GEN; MAX 3+ GENS. 7 20 82.60 63.60 0.13 23.10 1293.5 NMME 7 21 82.70 63.60 0.13 23.15 1316.6 NMME 7 22 82.70 63.70 0.13 23.20 1339.8 NMME 7 23 82.70 63.70 0.13 23.20 1363.0 NMME 7 24 82.70 63.70 0.13 23.20 1386.2 NMME 7 25 82.70 63.70 0.13 23.20 1409.4 NMME 7 26 82.70 63.70 0.13 23.20 1432.6 NMME 7 27 82.70 63.70 0.13 23.20 1455.8 NMME 7 28 82.70 63.70 0.13 23.20 1479.0 NMME 7 29 82.60 63.70 0.13 23.15 1502.2 NMME PEAK EGG LAYING BY 2nd GEN FEMALES; MAX 4+ GENS. 7 30 82.60 63.70 0.13 23.15 1525.3 NMME 7 31 82.50 63.70 0.14 23.10 1548.4 NMME 8 1 79.80 62.10 0.30 20.95 1569.4 Hx Hn 8 2 80.60 63.00 0.10 21.80 1591.2 Hx Hn 8 3 78.90 62.30 0.09 20.60 1611.8 Hx Hn 8 4 79.90 62.50 0.07 21.20 1633.0 Hx Hn 8 5 81.50 62.70 0.02 22.10 1655.1 Hx Hn 8 6 81.30 63.00 0.15 22.15 1677.2 Hx Hn 8 7 79.10 59.10 0.20 19.10 1696.3 Hx Hn 8 8 79.60 60.50 0.10 20.05 1716.4 Hx Hn 8 9 80.00 62.30 0.07 21.15 1737.5 Hx Hn 8 10 79.70 63.40 0.26 21.55 1759.1 Hx Hn PEAK ADULT EMERGE 3rd GEN; MAX 5 GENS. 8 11 78.60 62.40 0.27 20.50 1779.6 Hx Hn 8 12 79.90 62.80 0.21 21.35 1800.9 Hx Hn 8 13 79.00 62.40 0.10 20.70 1821.6 Hx Hn 8 14 78.10 59.30 0.20 18.70 1840.3 Hx Hn 8 15 77.40 60.10 0.31 18.75 1859.1 Hx Hn 8 16 77.40 61.50 0.24 19.45 1878.5 Hx Hn 8 17 79.60 61.90 0.07 20.75 1899.3 Hx Hn 8 18 81.30 60.60 0.10 20.95 1920.2 Hx Hn 8 19 79.00 60.20 0.00 19.60 1939.8 Hx Hn 8 20 78.40 59.50 0.03 18.95 1958.8 Hx Hn 8 21 78.40 60.80 0.05 19.60 1978.4 Hx Hn 8 22 76.80 61.00 0.52 18.90 1997.3 Hx Hn PEAK EGG LAYING BY 3rd GEN FEMALES; MAX 6+ GENS. 8 23 74.70 59.30 0.48 17.00 2014.3 Hx Hn 8 24 75.40 58.90 0.01 17.15 2031.4 Hx Hn 8 25 77.80 61.50 0.04 19.65 2051.1 Hx Hn 8 26 79.00 62.00 0.07 20.50 2071.6 Hx Hn 8 27 78.70 58.40 0.08 18.55 2090.1 Hx Hn 8 28 77.60 59.20 0.69 18.40 2108.5 Hx Hn 8 29 76.10 57.30 0.29 16.70 2125.2 Hx Hn 8 30 76.70 57.30 0.04 17.00 2142.2 Hx Hn 8 31 79.30 60.30 0.01 19.80 2162.0 Hx Hn 9 1 79.70 60.50 0.10 20.10 2182.1 Hx Hn 9 2 79.10 59.00 0.03 19.05 2201.2 Hx Hn 9 3 79.60 60.50 0.10 20.05 2221.2 Hx Hn 9 4 78.10 59.90 0.00 19.00 2240.2 Hx Hn PEAK ADULT EMERGE 4th GEN; MAX 6+ GENS. 9 5 78.70 59.60 0.09 19.15 2259.4 Hx Hn 9 6 77.50 57.60 0.14 17.55 2276.9 Hx Hn 9 7 75.00 58.90 0.74 16.95 2293.9 Hx Hn 9 8 77.30 60.00 0.29 18.65 2312.5 Hx Hn 9 9 79.40 59.20 0.17 19.30 2331.8 Hx Hn 9 10 74.70 57.40 0.16 16.05 2347.9 Hx Hn 9 11 72.40 57.50 0.15 14.95 2362.8 Hx Hn 9 12 72.90 55.20 0.10 14.05 2376.9 Hx Hn 9 13 71.70 56.10 0.13 13.90 2390.8 Hx Hn 9 14 73.10 55.00 0.10 14.05 2404.8 Hx Hn 9 15 73.50 53.10 0.01 13.30 2418.1 Hx Hn QA 100% ok  Consider using a different Station!
Forecast using: NWS NDFD 7-day Forecast data
Forecast using: 10 yr Hist Avg D0489 2006-2015
spotted wing Drosophila model - OSU IPPC model analysis vers. 3.0
Location: 2018 D0489 Danbury DW0489 CT
QA 100% ok  - check weather data/Consider using a different Station!
DateDDsEvent
 5-26-18 2701st EGG LAYING BY OW FEMALES
 6-13-18 525PEAK (ca. 50%) EGG LAYING BY OW FEMALES; 1st ADULT EMERGE 1st GEN
 6-16-18 5771st EGG LAYING BY 1st GEN FEMALES
 6-26-18 765PEAK ADULT EMERGE 1st GEN
 7-7-18 998PEAK EGG LAYING BY 1st GEN FEMALES; MAX 2+ GENS.
 7-19-18 1270PEAK ADULT EMERGE 2nd GEN; MAX 3+ GENS.
 7-29-18 1502PEAK EGG LAYING BY 2nd GEN FEMALES; MAX 4+ GENS.
 8-10-18 1759PEAK ADULT EMERGE 3rd GEN; MAX 5 GENS.
 8-22-18 1997PEAK EGG LAYING BY 3rd GEN FEMALES; MAX 6+ GENS.
 9-4-18 2240PEAK ADULT EMERGE 4th GEN; MAX 6+ GENS.
degree-day graph of spotted wing Drosophila [fruit] OSU IPPC model analysis vers. 3.0