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invasive insect model of OSU OIPMC model analysis vers. 3.0 |
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Output from uspest.org/wea invasive insect degree-day/phenology model program: Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================ Model species/general links: spotted wing Drosophila [fruit] Type: invasive insect Model source/other links: OSU OIPMC model analysis vers. 3.0 Calculation method: single sine Lower threshold: 50 degrees Fahrenheit Upper threshold: 88 degrees Fahrenheit Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1 Ending date: 9 15 Model validation status: partly validated-has been compared to 2 years of field data in PNW Region of known use: potential for use in US ==============================EVENTS TABLE================================ 1. 261 DDs after Jan 1: 1st egg laying by ow females 2. 510 DDs after Jan 1: Peak (ca. 50%) egg laying by ow females; 1st adult emerge 1st gen 3. 565 DDs after Jan 1: 1st egg laying by 1st gen females 4. 755 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 1st gen 5. 995 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 1st gen females; max 2+ gens. 6. 1249 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 2nd gen; max 3+ gens. 7. 1489 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 2nd gen females; max 4+ gens. 8. 1743 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 3rd gen; max 5 gens. 9. 1983 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 3rd gen females; max 6+ gens. 10. 2237 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 4th gen; max 6+ gens. 11. 2477 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 4th gen females; max 7+ gens. 12. 2731 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 5th gen; max 8+ gens. 13. 2971 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 5th gen females; max 9+ gens. ==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================ Weather station: 2018 CRVO Agrimet CORVALLIS OR Lat44.6342 Long-123.1897 Elev:230 mn day max min precip DD50 CUMDD50 event -- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- ------- 1 1 42.40 28.90 0.00 0.00 0.0 * START * 1 2 43.40 33.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 3 45.60 34.10 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 4 44.30 35.10 0.03 0.00 0.0 1 5 52.30 39.80 0.43 0.43 0.4 1 6 48.70 33.50 0.10 0.00 0.4 1 7 46.80 35.20 0.02 0.00 0.4 1 8 44.10 35.70 0.03 0.00 0.4 1 9 50.80 42.80 0.58 0.11 0.5 1 10 49.40 39.40 0.09 0.00 0.5 1 11 56.50 48.90 0.83 2.88 3.4 1 12 53.90 48.20 0.04 1.49 4.9 1 13 56.60 39.40 0.00 1.81 6.7 1 14 47.50 36.60 0.01 0.00 6.7 1 15 53.10 33.30 0.12 0.53 7.3 1 16 55.60 41.20 0.01 1.55 8.8 1 17 63.00 39.10 0.16 4.34 13.1 1 18 50.90 41.30 0.59 0.12 13.3 1 19 47.20 39.50 0.15 0.00 13.3 1 20 48.40 37.80 0.01 0.00 13.3 1 21 47.40 40.30 0.12 0.00 13.3 1 22 50.00 36.30 0.09 0.00 13.3 1 23 50.10 37.00 0.67 0.00 13.3 1 24 50.60 39.50 0.23 0.06 13.3 1 25 46.60 35.80 0.71 0.00 13.3 1 26 47.20 37.00 0.05 0.00 13.3 1 27 53.80 42.70 0.09 0.98 14.3 1 28 60.60 45.80 0.01 4.18 18.5 1 29 58.40 44.90 0.29 3.04 21.5 1 30 49.70 40.80 0.14 0.00 21.5 1 31 47.00 38.60 0.04 0.00 21.5 2 1 51.10 39.60 0.01 0.15 21.7 2 2 62.60 44.00 0.00 4.80 26.5 2 3 60.30 45.50 0.01 3.99 30.5 2 4 59.60 43.30 0.01 3.36 33.8 2 5 60.20 38.30 0.00 3.12 36.9 2 6 56.40 33.70 0.01 1.49 38.4 2 7 55.10 38.10 0.00 1.23 39.6 2 8 59.10 36.80 0.01 2.58 42.2 2 9 50.10 39.70 0.00 0.00 42.2 2 10 47.60 34.60 0.00 0.00 42.2 2 11 44.70 31.30 0.01 0.00 42.2 2 12 47.40 33.80 0.00 0.00 42.2 2 13 51.70 23.90 0.00 0.18 42.4 2 14 49.50 35.60 0.32 0.00 42.4 2 15 49.60 31.80 0.00 0.00 42.4 2 16 49.90 38.60 0.01 0.00 42.4 2 17 53.10 42.40 0.09 0.73 43.1 2 18 41.50 32.60 0.25 0.00 43.1 2 19 40.70 31.90 0.00 0.00 43.1 2 20 41.00 28.10 0.20 0.00 43.1 2 21 38.70 30.30 0.00 0.00 43.1 2 22 40.70 30.80 0.07 0.00 43.1 2 23 39.60 22.20 0.00 0.00 43.1 2 24 46.10 36.50 0.27 0.00 43.1 2 25 46.10 34.90 0.54 0.00 43.1 2 26 46.50 30.30 0.02 0.00 43.1 2 27 45.40 29.50 0.00 0.00 43.1 2 28 46.60 39.50 0.43 0.00 43.1 3 1 43.70 37.50 0.11 0.00 43.1 3 2 49.90 35.10 0.00 0.00 43.1 3 3 48.10 31.20 0.05 0.00 43.1 3 4 48.60 30.30 0.02 0.00 43.1 3 5 54.10 33.00 0.01 0.78 43.9 3 6 53.50 36.90 0.00 0.70 44.6 3 7 50.90 33.50 0.00 0.09 44.7 3 8 54.80 39.20 0.26 1.17 45.9 3 9 51.90 39.70 0.00 0.32 46.2 3 10 56.60 35.40 0.00 1.62 47.8 3 11 63.90 38.00 0.01 4.61 52.4 3 12 67.70 36.00 0.00 6.00 58.4 3 13 57.10 43.40 0.56 2.31 60.7 3 14 53.80 37.70 0.03 0.80 61.5 3 15 51.60 32.50 0.06 0.20 61.7 3 16 52.00 33.90 0.01 0.29 62.0 3 17 51.50 36.60 0.17 0.20 62.2 3 18 52.40 35.90 0.00 0.39 62.6 3 19 54.00 31.90 0.00 0.74 63.4 3 20 59.80 29.90 0.01 2.47 65.8 3 21 53.50 36.70 0.45 0.69 66.5 3 22 48.40 33.90 0.89 0.00 66.5 3 23 42.30 35.10 0.79 0.00 66.5 3 24 47.60 34.60 0.19 0.00 66.5 3 25 49.30 33.80 0.16 0.00 66.5 3 26 50.20 32.90 0.04 0.01 66.5 3 27 56.90 41.00 0.00 2.03 68.6 3 28 58.90 38.60 0.00 2.63 71.2 3 29 59.40 37.60 0.00 2.75 73.9 3 30 60.20 35.20 0.00 2.90 76.8 3 31 61.90 39.10 0.00 3.88 80.7 4 1 51.50 34.40 0.04 0.19 80.9 4 2 52.30 34.10 0.01 0.35 81.3 4 3 53.10 32.20 0.00 0.51 81.8 4 4 62.10 44.20 0.02 4.60 86.4 4 5 53.30 46.20 0.35 1.01 87.4 4 6 69.90 52.20 0.06 11.05 98.4 4 7 60.60 47.20 1.14 4.46 102.9 4 8 53.20 43.00 0.55 0.79 103.7 4 9 63.30 37.80 0.01 4.34 108.0 4 10 60.80 47.20 0.02 4.55 112.6 4 11 54.80 40.90 0.33 1.24 113.8 4 12 50.60 39.20 0.44 0.06 113.9 4 13 56.00 44.90 0.07 2.00 115.9 4 14 57.80 48.00 0.25 3.29 119.2 4 15 50.70 41.50 0.70 0.08 119.2 4 16 48.60 38.90 0.26 0.00 119.2 4 17 53.00 41.00 0.16 0.65 119.9 4 18 58.50 40.60 0.00 2.63 122.5 4 19 65.20 33.80 0.00 4.75 127.3 4 20 66.10 34.60 0.00 5.19 132.5 4 21 60.30 45.30 0.00 3.96 136.4 4 22 62.80 37.60 0.00 4.11 140.5 4 23 74.00 43.90 0.00 10.14 150.7 4 24 79.50 48.50 0.00 14.14 164.8 4 25 79.00 43.90 0.00 12.55 177.4 4 26 72.50 45.10 0.00 9.70 187.1 4 27 52.90 48.60 0.28 1.10 188.2 4 28 58.90 45.90 0.00 3.41 191.6 4 29 59.80 45.30 0.05 3.73 195.3 4 30 57.00 45.70 0.03 2.52 197.8 5 1 58.20 44.40 0.00 2.89 200.7 5 2 71.00 39.30 0.00 7.89 208.6 5 3 72.00 41.70 0.00 8.75 217.3 5 4 64.40 49.50 0.00 6.99 224.3 5 5 71.70 47.80 0.00 10.04 234.4 5 6 65.60 47.30 0.06 6.90 241.3 5 7 70.10 47.00 0.00 9.01 250.3 5 8 72.10 44.40 0.08 9.34 259.6 5 9 67.00 52.50 0.00 9.75 269.4 1st egg laying by ow females 5 10 63.70 43.50 0.04 5.22 274.6 5 11 65.70 43.30 0.00 6.11 280.7 5 12 77.40 45.40 0.00 12.15 292.9 5 13 84.50 46.10 0.00 15.83 308.7 5 14 82.90 47.10 0.00 15.35 324.0 5 15 70.20 44.90 0.00 8.54 332.6 5 16 66.30 53.40 0.00 9.85 342.4 5 17 68.00 46.40 0.00 7.83 350.3 5 18 69.40 45.20 0.00 8.23 358.5 5 19 69.80 46.20 0.00 8.66 367.1 5 20 69.30 44.70 0.00 8.07 375.2 5 21 73.40 42.20 0.00 9.50 384.7 5 22 82.00 46.70 0.00 14.78 399.5 5 23 73.90 49.60 0.01 11.77 411.3 5 24 71.40 54.40 0.00 12.90 424.2 5 25 67.40 52.20 0.00 9.80 434.0 5 26 65.50 41.30 0.00 5.70 439.7 5 27 77.40 43.80 0.00 11.75 451.4 5 28 73.90 46.00 0.00 10.60 462.0 5 29 66.40 48.50 0.00 7.64 469.7 5 30 66.30 40.80 0.00 5.99 475.7 5 31 63.90 47.90 0.00 6.23 481.9 6 1 72.30 36.60 0.00 8.08 490.0 6 2 81.10 42.10 0.00 13.14 503.1 6 3 72.80 47.10 0.00 10.37 513.5 Peak (ca. 50%) egg laying by ow females; 1st adult emerge 1st gen 6 4 69.20 49.00 0.00 9.19 522.7 6 5 71.70 38.20 0.00 8.04 530.7 6 6 75.70 41.30 0.00 10.41 541.1 6 7 70.80 49.50 0.00 10.18 551.3 6 8 67.30 46.80 0.40 7.60 558.9 6 9 62.60 46.60 0.04 5.28 564.2 6 10 56.80 47.40 0.25 2.70 566.9 1st egg laying by 1st gen females 6 11 70.20 50.70 0.06 10.45 577.3 6 12 80.10 46.00 0.00 13.64 591.0 6 13 65.30 49.50 0.00 7.44 598.4 6 14 67.60 50.30 0.00 8.95 607.3 6 15 70.80 49.10 0.00 10.03 617.4 6 16 77.00 50.80 0.00 13.90 631.3 6 17 87.20 57.20 0.01 22.20 653.5 6 18 82.60 53.80 0.01 18.20 671.7 6 19 89.10 49.10 0.00 19.08 690.8 6 20 82.70 54.60 0.00 18.65 709.4 6 21 76.00 56.40 0.00 16.20 725.6 6 22 77.00 56.40 0.00 16.70 742.3 6 23 76.80 55.40 0.00 16.10 758.4 Peak adult emerge 1st gen 6 24 89.60 54.60 0.00 21.95 780.4 6 25 71.80 48.00 0.00 10.15 790.5 6 26 76.40 43.50 0.00 11.20 801.7 6 27 77.20 48.50 0.00 13.00 814.7 6 28 75.40 43.30 0.00 10.68 825.4 6 29 81.50 44.20 0.00 13.84 839.2 6 30 83.70 48.10 0.00 16.09 855.3 7 1 79.20 56.00 0.00 17.60 872.9 7 2 71.80 47.90 0.00 10.12 883.0 7 3 75.80 41.80 0.00 10.55 893.6 7 4 73.10 56.50 0.00 14.80 908.4 7 5 85.40 48.50 0.00 17.08 925.5 7 6 77.20 50.40 0.00 13.80 939.3 7 7 80.80 48.90 0.00 14.94 954.2 7 8 81.90 53.10 0.00 17.50 971.7 7 9 70.10 49.20 0.00 9.72 981.4 7 10 80.20 52.10 0.00 16.15 997.6 Peak egg laying by 1st gen females; max 2+ gens. 7 11 88.30 55.30 0.00 21.79 1019.3 7 12 97.30 63.30 0.00 28.17 1047.5 7 13 93.30 61.30 0.00 26.37 1073.9 7 14 92.20 54.30 0.00 22.65 1096.5 7 15 96.40 54.70 0.00 23.92 1120.5 7 16 95.90 55.90 0.00 24.38 1144.8 7 17 89.20 53.20 0.00 21.11 1165.9 7 18 86.60 50.60 0.00 18.60 1184.5 7 19 75.80 52.80 0.00 14.30 1198.8 7 20 79.50 47.70 0.00 13.86 1212.7 7 21 81.00 48.60 0.00 14.92 1227.6 7 22 90.70 53.40 0.00 21.74 1249.4 Peak adult emerge 2nd gen; max 3+ gens. 7 23 92.80 50.70 0.00 21.05 1270.4 7 24 95.40 52.70 0.00 22.72 1293.1 7 25 96.30 52.80 0.00 22.98 1316.1 7 26 96.00 54.90 0.00 23.92 1340.0 7 27 90.10 50.50 0.00 20.09 1360.1 7 28 90.40 49.00 0.00 19.52 1379.7 7 29 96.80 54.70 0.00 24.00 1403.7 7 30 87.60 56.10 0.00 21.85 1425.5 7 31 89.40 52.30 0.00 20.73 1446.2 8 1 87.10 49.30 0.00 18.24 1464.5 8 2 75.20 50.40 0.00 12.80 1477.3 8 3 77.60 53.70 0.00 15.65 1492.9 Peak egg laying by 2nd gen females; max 4+ gens. 8 4 85.40 55.50 0.00 20.45 1513.4 8 5 88.40 49.00 0.00 18.75 1532.1 8 6 88.80 54.30 0.00 21.50 1553.6 8 7 93.40 54.90 0.00 23.28 1576.9 8 8 92.40 55.10 0.00 23.10 1600.0 8 9 95.20 53.80 0.00 23.20 1623.2 8 10 88.30 59.40 0.00 23.84 1647.0 8 11 78.30 56.60 0.00 17.45 1664.5 8 12 80.50 48.80 0.00 14.75 1679.2 8 13 87.90 56.00 0.00 21.95 1701.2 8 14 91.70 53.80 0.00 22.25 1723.5 8 15 85.10 52.30 0.00 18.70 1742.2 8 16 82.30 53.80 0.00 18.05 1760.2 Peak adult emerge 3rd gen; max 5 gens. 8 17 81.80 49.00 0.00 15.47 1775.7 8 18 86.00 50.40 0.00 18.20 1793.9 8 19 86.80 49.80 0.00 18.31 1812.2 8 20 81.20 50.60 0.00 15.90 1828.1 8 21 92.60 61.50 0.00 26.29 1854.4 8 22 90.30 52.60 0.00 21.21 1875.6 8 23 66.90 47.20 0.00 7.50 1883.1 8 24 73.00 47.90 0.00 10.71 1893.8 8 25 74.90 47.10 0.00 11.40 1905.2 8 26 70.70 53.80 0.00 12.25 1917.4 8 27 76.90 59.50 0.00 18.20 1935.6 8 28 87.80 57.50 0.00 22.65 1958.3 8 29 84.40 45.00 0.00 15.47 1973.8 8 30 72.20 51.80 0.00 12.00 1985.8 Peak egg laying by 3rd gen females; max 6+ gens. 8 31 77.80 50.50 0.00 14.15 1999.9 9 1 75.30 51.40 0.00 13.35 2013.3 9 2 82.60 50.80 0.00 16.70 2030.0 9 3 79.10 51.80 0.00 15.45 2045.4 9 4 81.10 46.70 0.00 14.34 2059.7 9 5 88.20 48.10 0.00 18.32 2078.1 9 6 84.20 46.60 0.00 15.84 2093.9 9 7 82.20 43.30 0.00 13.95 2107.9 9 8 76.20 51.50 0.00 13.85 2121.7 9 9 79.20 43.50 0.00 12.55 2134.3 9 10 71.80 54.90 0.01 13.35 2147.6 Px 9 11 68.00 52.40 0.40 10.20 2157.8 9 12 64.00 49.40 0.44 6.75 2164.6 9 13 66.80 47.90 0.03 7.65 2172.2 9 14 69.10 45.00 0.00 8.04 2180.2 9 15 66.20 44.30 0.03 6.52 2186.8 Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 CRVO PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021