Online Phenology Models and Degree-day Calculator
immaturedamageadult
spotted wing Drosophila [fruit]
invasive insect model of OSU IPPC model analysis vers. 3.0


Output from uspest.org/wea invasive insect degree-day/phenology model program:
	Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================ Model species/general links: spotted wing Drosophila [fruit] Type: invasive insect Model source/other links: OSU IPPC model analysis vers. 3.0 Calculation method: single sine Lower threshold: 50 degrees Fahrenheit Upper threshold: 88 degrees Fahrenheit Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1 Ending date: 9 15 Model validation status: partly validated-has been compared to 2 years of field data in PNW Region of known use: potential for use in US ==============================EVENTS TABLE================================ 1. 261 DDs after Jan 1: 1st EGG LAYING BY OW FEMALES 2. 510 DDs after Jan 1: PEAK (ca. 50%) EGG LAYING BY OW FEMALES; 1st ADULT EMERGE 1st GEN 3. 565 DDs after Jan 1: 1st EGG LAYING BY 1st GEN FEMALES 4. 755 DDs after Jan 1: PEAK ADULT EMERGE 1st GEN 5. 995 DDs after Jan 1: PEAK EGG LAYING BY 1st GEN FEMALES; MAX 2+ GENS. 6. 1249 DDs after Jan 1: PEAK ADULT EMERGE 2nd GEN; MAX 3+ GENS. 7. 1489 DDs after Jan 1: PEAK EGG LAYING BY 2nd GEN FEMALES; MAX 4+ GENS. 8. 1743 DDs after Jan 1: PEAK ADULT EMERGE 3rd GEN; MAX 5 GENS. 9. 1983 DDs after Jan 1: PEAK EGG LAYING BY 3rd GEN FEMALES; MAX 6+ GENS. 10. 2237 DDs after Jan 1: PEAK ADULT EMERGE 4th GEN; MAX 6+ GENS. 11. 2477 DDs after Jan 1: PEAK EGG LAYING BY 4th GEN FEMALES; MAX 7+ GENS. 12. 2731 DDs after Jan 1: PEAK ADULT EMERGE 5th GEN; MAX 8+ GENS. 13. 2971 DDs after Jan 1: PEAK EGG LAYING BY 5th GEN FEMALES; MAX 9+ GENS. ==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================ Weather station: 2018 C8767 APRSWXNET Mechanicsville CW8767 VA Lat37.6044 Long:-77.3256 Elev:174 mn day max min precip DD50 CUMDD50 event -- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- ------- 1 1 26.00 9.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 * START * 1 2 28.00 9.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 3 34.00 9.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 4 29.00 17.00 0.04 0.00 0.0 1 5 25.00 7.00 0.01 0.00 0.0 1 6 22.80 4.00 0.01 0.00 0.0 Px 1 7 24.00 -2.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 8 46.00 15.00 0.16 0.00 0.0 1 9 53.00 28.00 0.01 0.45 0.4 1 10 42.00 26.00 0.00 0.00 0.4 1 11 66.00 34.00 0.32 5.09 5.5 1 12 67.00 60.00 0.34 13.50 19.0 1 13 61.00 24.00 0.17 2.63 21.7 1 14 29.00 17.00 0.00 0.00 21.7 1 15 36.00 17.00 0.00 0.00 21.7 1 16 42.00 25.00 0.00 0.00 21.7 1 17 34.00 22.00 0.02 0.00 21.7 1 18 42.00 11.00 0.02 0.00 21.7 1 19 55.00 23.00 0.01 0.85 22.5 1 20 60.00 30.00 0.00 2.54 25.1 1 21 66.00 29.00 0.00 4.69 29.8 1 22 65.00 46.00 0.41 6.30 36.1 1 23 72.00 47.00 0.41 9.95 46.0 1 24 52.00 35.00 0.00 0.29 46.3 1 25 45.00 26.00 0.00 0.00 46.3 1 26 54.00 25.00 0.00 0.64 46.9 1 27 64.00 32.00 0.13 4.13 51.1 1 28 56.00 49.00 0.52 2.66 53.7 1 29 49.00 36.00 0.20 0.00 53.7 1 30 38.00 25.00 0.04 0.00 53.7 1 31 39.00 19.00 0.00 0.00 53.7 2 1 59.00 32.00 0.07 2.29 56.0 2 2 53.00 20.00 0.07 0.39 56.4 2 3 37.00 14.00 0.00 0.00 56.4 2 4 38.00 29.00 0.42 0.00 56.4 2 5 43.00 28.00 0.01 0.00 56.4 2 6 54.00 26.00 0.03 0.65 57.1 2 7 50.00 34.00 0.07 0.00 57.1 2 8 41.00 27.00 0.00 0.00 57.1 2 9 51.00 25.00 0.14 0.08 57.1 2 10 51.00 33.00 0.11 0.10 57.2 2 11 71.00 51.00 0.18 11.00 68.2 2 12 65.00 34.00 0.02 4.69 72.9 2 13 39.00 33.00 0.01 0.00 72.9 2 14 59.00 36.00 0.01 2.50 75.4 2 15 72.00 50.00 0.01 11.00 86.4 2 16 66.00 45.00 0.05 6.56 93.0 2 17 45.00 34.00 0.19 0.00 93.0 2 18 55.00 31.00 0.11 0.99 94.0 2 19 49.00 33.00 0.01 0.00 94.0 2 20 75.00 49.00 0.00 12.08 106.1 2 21 79.00 60.00 0.00 19.50 125.6 2 22 69.00 46.00 0.00 8.22 133.8 2 23 50.00 41.00 0.00 0.00 133.8 2 24 73.00 44.00 0.00 9.68 143.5 2 25 68.00 52.00 0.00 10.00 153.5 2 26 55.00 37.00 0.01 1.15 154.6 2 27 59.00 31.00 0.00 2.24 156.9 2 28 61.00 41.00 0.00 3.70 160.6 3 1 53.00 49.00 0.14 1.22 161.8 3 2 54.00 42.00 0.00 1.02 162.8 3 3 53.00 36.00 0.00 0.54 163.3 3 4 53.00 34.00 0.00 0.51 163.9 3 5 49.00 30.00 0.00 0.00 163.9 3 6 46.00 25.00 0.03 0.00 163.9 3 7 55.80 35.90 0.00 1.37 165.2 Px Pn 3 8 47.50 27.50 0.00 0.00 165.2 Px Pn 3 9 49.30 30.00 0.04 0.00 165.2 Px Pn 3 10 47.00 27.00 0.00 0.00 165.2 3 11 46.00 35.00 0.00 0.00 165.2 3 12 39.00 32.00 0.24 0.00 165.2 3 13 48.00 27.00 0.14 0.00 165.2 3 14 42.00 24.00 0.00 0.00 165.2 3 15 58.00 28.00 0.00 1.80 167.0 3 16 51.00 28.00 0.00 0.09 167.1 3 17 49.00 24.00 0.05 0.00 167.1 3 18 57.00 39.00 0.05 1.94 169.1 3 19 63.00 35.00 0.60 3.97 173.0 3 20 45.00 33.00 0.06 0.00 173.0 3 21 33.00 31.00 0.26 0.00 173.0 3 22 49.00 33.00 0.07 0.00 173.0 3 23 51.00 26.00 0.00 0.09 173.1 3 24 51.00 30.00 0.00 0.09 173.2 3 25 52.00 30.00 0.00 0.26 173.5 3 26 50.00 28.00 0.00 0.00 173.5 3 27 45.00 28.00 0.01 0.00 173.5 3 28 71.00 39.00 0.00 7.84 181.3 3 29 81.00 49.00 0.00 15.07 196.4 3 30 75.00 48.00 0.00 11.73 208.1 3 31 61.00 33.00 0.00 3.06 211.2 4 1 68.00 46.00 0.00 7.74 218.9 4 2 57.00 44.00 0.00 2.33 221.2 4 3 62.00 42.00 0.00 4.25 225.5 4 4 75.00 44.00 0.00 10.64 236.1 4 5 56.00 31.00 0.00 1.28 237.4 4 6 70.00 36.00 0.31 7.00 244.4 4 7 62.00 32.00 0.06 3.37 247.8 4 8 50.00 32.00 0.07 0.00 247.8 4 9 50.00 37.00 0.07 0.00 247.8 4 10 56.00 38.00 0.00 1.53 249.3 4 11 58.00 33.00 0.00 1.99 251.3 4 12 75.00 40.00 0.00 9.84 261.1 1st EGG LAYING BY OW FEMALES 4 13 82.00 53.00 0.00 17.50 278.6 4 14 81.00 61.00 0.00 21.00 299.6 4 15 76.00 63.00 1.35 19.50 319.1 4 16 71.00 46.00 0.02 9.19 328.3 4 17 51.00 36.00 0.00 0.11 328.4 4 18 71.00 37.00 0.00 7.56 336.0 4 19 67.00 40.00 0.00 6.19 342.2 4 20 60.00 34.00 0.00 2.75 344.9 4 21 62.00 36.00 0.00 3.65 348.6 4 22 68.00 42.00 0.00 6.95 355.5 4 23 68.00 43.00 0.12 7.12 362.6 4 24 57.00 52.00 0.64 4.50 367.1 4 25 63.00 55.00 0.17 9.00 376.1 4 26 72.00 50.00 0.73 11.00 387.1 4 27 68.00 52.00 0.05 10.00 397.1 4 28 77.00 49.00 0.00 13.08 410.2 4 29 62.00 44.00 0.00 4.53 414.7 4 30 69.00 36.00 0.00 6.56 421.3 5 1 80.00 41.00 0.00 12.38 433.7 5 2 89.00 51.00 0.00 19.93 453.6 5 3 88.00 59.00 0.00 23.50 477.1 5 4 86.00 62.00 0.00 24.00 501.1 5 5 75.00 60.00 0.14 17.50 518.6 PEAK (ca. 50%) EGG LAYING BY OW FEMALES; 1st ADULT EMERGE 1st GEN 5 6 76.00 55.00 0.00 15.50 534.1 5 7 70.00 54.00 0.00 12.00 546.1 5 8 75.00 49.00 0.00 12.08 558.2 5 9 78.00 50.00 0.00 14.00 572.2 1st EGG LAYING BY 1st GEN FEMALES 5 10 84.00 55.00 0.27 19.50 591.7 5 11 85.00 57.00 0.01 21.00 612.7 5 12 90.00 65.00 0.00 27.26 640.0 5 13 86.00 64.00 0.00 25.00 665.0 5 14 91.00 62.00 0.16 26.09 691.0 5 15 86.00 62.00 0.02 24.00 715.0 5 16 79.00 68.00 0.32 23.50 738.5 5 17 77.00 67.00 1.17 22.00 760.5 PEAK ADULT EMERGE 1st GEN 5 18 77.00 62.00 1.72 19.50 780.0 5 19 72.00 62.00 4.75 17.00 797.0 5 20 84.00 69.00 3.96 26.50 823.5 5 21 80.00 66.00 0.93 23.00 846.5 5 22 83.00 65.00 0.59 24.00 870.5 5 23 85.00 66.00 0.02 25.50 896.0 5 24 84.00 58.00 0.00 21.00 917.0 5 25 83.00 60.00 0.00 21.50 938.5 5 26 86.00 69.00 0.00 27.50 966.0 5 27 86.00 71.00 0.02 28.50 994.5 5 28 85.00 68.00 0.02 26.50 1021.0 PEAK EGG LAYING BY 1st GEN FEMALES; MAX 2+ GENS. 5 29 82.00 67.00 0.01 24.50 1045.5 5 30 82.00 71.00 0.08 26.50 1072.0 5 31 84.00 70.00 0.00 27.00 1099.0 6 1 90.00 70.00 0.00 29.73 1128.8 6 2 85.00 68.00 2.47 26.50 1155.3 6 3 76.00 58.00 0.05 17.00 1172.3 6 4 81.00 57.00 0.00 19.00 1191.3 6 5 81.00 57.00 0.02 19.00 1210.3 6 6 78.00 60.00 0.02 19.00 1229.3 6 7 82.00 60.00 0.00 21.00 1250.3 PEAK ADULT EMERGE 2nd GEN; MAX 3+ GENS. 6 8 86.00 59.00 0.00 22.50 1272.8 6 9 87.00 67.00 0.83 27.00 1299.8 6 10 86.00 65.00 0.48 25.50 1325.3 6 11 68.00 62.00 0.19 15.00 1340.3 6 12 73.00 58.00 0.03 15.50 1355.8 6 13 83.00 65.00 0.01 24.00 1379.8 6 14 84.00 67.00 0.00 25.50 1405.3 6 15 84.00 61.00 0.00 22.50 1427.8 6 16 87.00 61.00 0.00 24.00 1451.8 6 17 89.00 69.00 0.00 28.90 1480.7 6 18 92.00 70.00 0.00 30.26 1510.9 PEAK EGG LAYING BY 2nd GEN FEMALES; MAX 4+ GENS. 6 19 95.00 72.00 1.42 31.81 1542.7 6 20 89.00 69.00 0.91 28.90 1571.7 6 21 88.00 68.00 2.37 28.00 1599.7 6 22 75.00 70.00 0.59 22.50 1622.2 6 23 85.00 70.00 0.01 27.50 1649.7 6 24 90.00 70.00 0.31 29.73 1679.4 6 25 83.00 69.00 0.00 26.00 1705.4 6 26 80.40 66.00 0.00 23.20 1728.6 Px 6 27 87.40 62.60 0.00 25.00 1753.6 PnHx PEAK ADULT EMERGE 3rd GEN; MAX 5 GENS. 6 28 88.20 68.90 0.00 28.54 1782.1 Px Pn 6 29 89.00 71.60 0.00 30.20 1812.3 Pn 6 30 92.00 68.00 0.00 29.29 1841.6 7 1 93.00 69.00 0.00 30.01 1871.6 7 2 96.00 73.00 0.00 32.42 1904.0 7 3 95.00 74.00 0.00 32.72 1936.8 7 4 90.00 71.00 0.00 30.22 1967.0 7 5 93.00 71.00 0.00 30.96 1998.0 PEAK EGG LAYING BY 3rd GEN FEMALES; MAX 6+ GENS. 7 6 89.00 71.00 0.06 29.90 2027.8 7 7 78.00 63.00 0.03 20.50 2048.3 7 8 82.00 55.00 0.00 18.50 2066.8 7 9 85.00 54.00 0.00 19.50 2086.3 7 10 91.00 61.00 0.00 25.59 2111.9 7 11 91.00 68.00 0.05 29.03 2141.0 7 12 89.00 69.00 0.01 28.90 2169.9 7 13 85.00 66.00 0.00 25.50 2195.4 7 14 87.00 59.00 0.00 23.00 2218.4 7 15 90.00 66.00 0.00 27.75 2246.1 PEAK ADULT EMERGE 4th GEN; MAX 6+ GENS. 7 16 91.00 73.00 0.00 31.47 2277.6 7 17 91.00 71.00 0.74 30.50 2308.1 7 18 83.00 65.00 0.00 24.00 2332.1 7 19 87.00 64.00 0.00 25.50 2357.6 7 20 85.00 65.00 0.24 25.00 2382.6 7 21 71.00 65.00 1.04 18.00 2400.6 7 22 84.60 64.10 0.00 24.35 2425.0 Px Pn 7 23 82.30 70.50 0.00 26.40 2451.4 Px Pn 7 24 79.50 72.60 0.00 26.05 2477.4 Px Pn PEAK EGG LAYING BY 4th GEN FEMALES; MAX 7+ GENS. 7 25 82.10 70.30 0.00 26.20 2503.6 Px Pn 7 26 87.50 68.40 0.00 27.95 2531.6 Px Pn 7 27 88.90 70.90 0.00 29.81 2561.4 Px Pn 7 28 86.80 70.00 0.00 28.40 2589.8 Px Pn 7 29 84.80 67.20 0.00 26.00 2615.8 Px Pn 7 30 72.00 71.20 0.02 21.60 2637.4 Pn 7 31 83.00 70.00 0.78 26.50 2663.9 8 1 86.00 73.00 0.01 29.50 2693.4 8 2 89.00 70.00 0.44 29.40 2722.8 8 3 81.00 70.00 0.06 25.50 2748.3 PEAK ADULT EMERGE 5th GEN; MAX 8+ GENS. 8 4 87.00 72.00 0.00 29.50 2777.8 8 5 91.00 69.00 0.00 29.52 2807.3 8 6 91.00 69.00 0.51 29.52 2836.8 8 7 92.00 71.00 0.00 30.74 2867.6 8 8 91.00 71.00 0.00 30.50 2898.1 8 9 88.00 71.00 0.00 29.50 2927.6 8 10 89.00 69.00 0.00 28.90 2956.5 8 11 88.00 70.00 1.66 29.00 2985.5 PEAK EGG LAYING BY 5th GEN FEMALES; MAX 9+ GENS. 8 12 89.00 67.00 1.71 27.91 3013.4 8 13 82.00 65.00 0.06 23.50 3036.9 8 14 83.00 61.00 0.08 22.00 3058.9 8 15 88.00 67.00 0.02 27.50 3086.4 8 16 89.00 68.00 0.00 28.41 3114.8 8 17 91.00 72.00 0.00 30.99 3145.8 8 18 87.00 71.00 0.01 29.00 3174.8 8 19 85.00 70.00 0.21 27.50 3202.3 8 20 84.00 71.00 0.03 27.50 3229.8 8 21 86.00 73.00 0.15 29.50 3259.3 8 22 85.00 69.00 0.40 27.00 3286.3 8 23 77.00 59.00 0.01 18.00 3304.3 8 24 83.00 56.00 0.00 19.50 3323.8 8 25 81.00 58.00 0.00 19.50 3343.3 8 26 86.00 60.00 0.00 23.00 3366.3 8 27 91.00 69.00 0.00 29.52 3395.8 8 28 92.00 71.00 0.98 30.74 3426.5 8 29 93.00 72.00 0.00 31.44 3458.0 8 30 93.00 72.00 0.06 31.44 3489.4 8 31 87.00 69.00 0.02 28.00 3517.4 9 1 88.00 69.00 0.64 28.50 3545.9 9 2 90.00 69.00 0.00 29.24 3575.1 9 3 92.00 72.00 0.00 31.22 3606.4 9 4 93.00 73.00 0.00 31.91 3638.3 9 5 92.00 72.00 0.00 31.22 3669.5 9 6 91.00 71.00 0.00 30.50 3700.0 9 7 91.00 71.00 0.01 30.50 3730.5 9 8 82.00 68.00 0.20 25.00 3755.5 9 9 71.00 65.00 0.20 18.00 3773.5 9 10 84.00 66.00 0.00 25.00 3798.5 9 11 88.40 71.00 0.00 29.67 3828.2 Px 9 12 87.50 70.90 0.00 29.20 3857.4 Px Pn 9 13 82.50 71.70 0.00 27.10 3884.5 Px Pn 9 14 80.10 73.60 0.00 26.85 3911.3 Px Pn 9 15 81.30 71.60 0.00 26.45 3937.8 Px Pn Forecast using: 10 yr Hist Avg C8767 2006-2015
spotted wing Drosophila model - OSU IPPC model analysis vers. 3.0
Location: 2018 C8767 Mechanicsville CW8767 VA
DateDDsEvent
 4-12-18 2611st EGG LAYING BY OW FEMALES
 5-5-18 519PEAK (ca. 50%) EGG LAYING BY OW FEMALES; 1st ADULT EMERGE 1st GEN
 5-9-18 5721st EGG LAYING BY 1st GEN FEMALES
 5-17-18 761PEAK ADULT EMERGE 1st GEN
 5-28-18 1021PEAK EGG LAYING BY 1st GEN FEMALES; MAX 2+ GENS.
 6-7-18 1250PEAK ADULT EMERGE 2nd GEN; MAX 3+ GENS.
 6-18-18 1511PEAK EGG LAYING BY 2nd GEN FEMALES; MAX 4+ GENS.
 6-27-18 1754PEAK ADULT EMERGE 3rd GEN; MAX 5 GENS.
 7-5-18 1998PEAK EGG LAYING BY 3rd GEN FEMALES; MAX 6+ GENS.
 7-15-18 2246PEAK ADULT EMERGE 4th GEN; MAX 6+ GENS.
 7-24-18 2477PEAK EGG LAYING BY 4th GEN FEMALES; MAX 7+ GENS.
 8-3-18 2748PEAK ADULT EMERGE 5th GEN; MAX 8+ GENS.
 8-11-18 2985PEAK EGG LAYING BY 5th GEN FEMALES; MAX 9+ GENS.
degree-day graph of spotted wing Drosophila [fruit] OSU IPPC model analysis vers. 3.0