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invasive insect model of OSU OIPMC model analysis vers. 3.0 |
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Output from uspest.org/wea invasive insect degree-day/phenology model program: Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================ Model species/general links: spotted wing Drosophila [fruit] Type: invasive insect Model source/other links: OSU OIPMC model analysis vers. 3.0 Calculation method: single sine Lower threshold: 50 degrees Fahrenheit Upper threshold: 88 degrees Fahrenheit Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1 Ending date: 9 15 Model validation status: partly validated-has been compared to 2 years of field data in PNW Region of known use: potential for use in US ==============================EVENTS TABLE================================ 1. 261 DDs after Jan 1: 1st egg laying by ow females 2. 510 DDs after Jan 1: Peak (ca. 50%) egg laying by ow females; 1st adult emerge 1st gen 3. 565 DDs after Jan 1: 1st egg laying by 1st gen females 4. 755 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 1st gen 5. 995 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 1st gen females; max 2+ gens. 6. 1249 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 2nd gen; max 3+ gens. 7. 1489 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 2nd gen females; max 4+ gens. 8. 1743 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 3rd gen; max 5 gens. 9. 1983 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 3rd gen females; max 6+ gens. 10. 2237 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 4th gen; max 6+ gens. 11. 2477 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 4th gen females; max 7+ gens. 12. 2731 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 5th gen; max 8+ gens. 13. 2971 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 5th gen females; max 9+ gens. ==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================ Weather station: 2018 C8371 APRSWXNET Hudson CW8371 NH Lat42.7867 Long:-71.4519 Elev:131 mn day max min precip DD50 CUMDD50 event -- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- ------- 1 1 10.00 -6.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 * START * 1 2 17.00 -13.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 3 27.00 5.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 4 27.00 6.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 5 23.00 4.00 0.01 0.00 0.0 1 6 11.00 -1.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 7 16.00 -13.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 8 34.00 15.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 9 40.00 26.00 0.02 0.00 0.0 1 10 37.00 15.00 0.01 0.00 0.0 1 11 51.00 31.00 0.00 0.10 0.1 1 12 58.00 36.00 0.97 2.13 2.2 1 13 60.00 17.00 0.38 2.10 4.3 1 14 21.00 10.00 0.00 0.00 4.3 1 15 20.00 6.00 0.00 0.00 4.3 1 16 33.00 15.00 0.00 0.00 4.3 1 17 32.00 29.00 0.06 0.00 4.3 1 18 31.70 13.50 0.01 0.00 4.3 Px Pn 1 19 32.00 12.00 0.01 0.00 4.3 1 20 47.00 26.00 0.08 0.00 4.3 1 21 48.00 26.00 0.03 0.00 4.3 1 22 35.00 27.00 0.01 0.00 4.3 1 23 33.00 27.00 0.03 0.00 4.3 1 24 37.00 22.00 0.34 0.00 4.3 1 25 27.00 17.00 0.00 0.00 4.3 1 26 33.00 14.00 0.01 0.00 4.3 1 27 52.00 19.00 0.01 0.21 4.5 1 28 50.00 30.00 0.00 0.00 4.5 1 29 37.00 27.00 0.00 0.00 4.5 1 30 31.00 22.00 0.00 0.00 4.5 1 31 32.00 16.00 0.01 0.00 4.5 2 1 42.00 28.00 0.18 0.00 4.5 2 2 38.00 9.00 0.17 0.00 4.5 2 3 26.00 6.00 0.00 0.00 4.5 2 4 42.00 20.00 0.44 0.00 4.5 2 5 41.00 22.00 0.01 0.00 4.5 2 6 32.00 19.00 0.00 0.00 4.5 2 7 31.00 15.00 0.18 0.00 4.5 2 8 30.00 16.00 0.04 0.00 4.5 2 9 27.00 11.00 0.01 0.00 4.5 2 10 46.00 26.00 0.37 0.00 4.5 2 11 39.00 34.00 0.64 0.00 4.5 2 12 40.00 31.00 0.01 0.00 4.5 2 13 32.00 22.00 0.00 0.00 4.5 2 14 48.00 27.00 0.00 0.00 4.5 2 15 50.00 28.00 0.00 0.00 4.5 2 16 48.70 29.70 0.00 0.00 4.5 Px Pn 2 17 36.00 23.70 0.19 0.00 4.5 Pn 2 18 42.00 23.00 0.16 0.00 4.5 2 19 48.00 17.00 0.07 0.00 4.5 2 20 69.00 41.00 0.04 7.24 11.8 2 21 76.00 33.00 0.00 9.24 21.0 2 22 52.00 26.00 0.06 0.24 21.3 2 23 40.00 22.00 0.11 0.00 21.3 2 24 51.00 34.00 0.14 0.10 21.4 2 25 38.00 30.00 0.26 0.00 21.4 2 26 51.00 33.00 0.00 0.10 21.5 2 27 53.00 24.00 0.00 0.41 21.9 2 28 61.00 32.00 0.00 3.00 24.9 3 1 58.00 32.00 0.41 1.95 26.8 3 2 42.00 34.00 0.49 0.00 26.8 3 3 49.00 38.00 0.00 0.00 26.8 3 4 43.00 35.00 0.04 0.00 26.8 3 5 45.00 28.00 0.04 0.00 26.8 3 6 40.00 23.00 0.00 0.00 26.8 3 7 33.00 30.00 0.01 0.00 26.8 3 8 34.00 28.00 0.23 0.00 26.8 3 9 36.00 26.00 0.26 0.00 26.8 3 10 39.00 29.00 0.02 0.00 26.8 3 11 42.00 28.00 0.00 0.00 26.8 3 12 41.00 20.00 0.02 0.00 26.8 3 13 34.00 28.00 0.10 0.00 26.8 3 14 37.00 28.00 0.19 0.00 26.8 3 15 40.00 31.00 0.00 0.00 26.8 3 16 34.00 27.00 0.00 0.00 26.8 3 17 37.00 16.00 0.00 0.00 26.8 3 18 30.00 10.00 0.00 0.00 26.8 3 19 34.00 13.00 0.00 0.00 26.8 3 20 42.00 19.00 0.00 0.00 26.8 3 21 40.00 26.00 0.06 0.00 26.8 3 22 48.00 32.00 0.01 0.00 26.8 3 23 45.00 28.00 0.00 0.00 26.8 3 24 46.00 33.00 0.05 0.00 26.8 3 25 40.00 26.00 0.04 0.00 26.8 3 26 45.00 22.00 0.00 0.00 26.8 3 27 48.00 20.00 0.00 0.00 26.8 3 28 60.00 33.00 0.00 2.69 29.5 3 29 55.00 31.00 0.04 0.99 30.5 3 30 56.00 42.00 0.01 1.75 32.3 3 31 56.00 38.00 0.01 1.53 33.8 4 1 54.00 35.00 0.04 0.80 34.6 4 2 42.00 30.00 0.04 0.00 34.6 4 3 48.00 26.00 0.32 0.00 34.6 4 4 49.00 37.00 0.15 0.00 34.6 4 5 41.00 28.00 0.00 0.00 34.6 4 6 39.00 21.00 0.34 0.00 34.6 4 7 44.00 33.00 0.14 0.00 34.6 4 8 44.00 25.00 0.00 0.00 34.6 4 9 44.00 27.00 0.00 0.00 34.6 4 10 41.00 29.00 0.09 0.00 34.6 4 11 50.00 29.00 0.06 0.00 34.6 4 12 57.00 28.00 0.13 1.50 36.1 4 13 68.00 38.00 0.01 6.37 42.5 4 14 56.00 35.00 0.00 1.40 43.9 4 15 34.00 30.00 0.70 0.00 43.9 4 16 47.00 31.00 1.44 0.00 43.9 4 17 47.00 38.00 0.00 0.00 43.9 4 18 52.00 34.00 0.06 0.29 44.1 4 19 45.00 34.00 0.04 0.00 44.1 4 20 50.00 35.00 0.00 0.00 44.1 4 21 58.00 30.00 0.00 1.87 46.0 4 22 61.00 27.00 0.00 2.75 48.8 4 23 67.00 27.00 0.00 4.94 53.7 4 24 71.00 36.00 0.16 7.43 61.1 4 25 56.00 48.00 0.52 2.44 63.6 4 26 65.00 47.00 0.06 6.53 70.1 4 27 61.00 40.00 0.24 3.60 73.7 4 28 72.00 48.00 0.06 10.25 83.9 4 29 56.00 41.00 0.09 1.69 85.6 4 30 50.00 35.00 0.03 0.00 85.6 5 1 68.00 36.00 0.00 6.13 91.8 5 2 89.00 45.00 0.00 17.66 109.4 5 3 86.00 59.00 0.00 22.50 131.9 5 4 82.00 61.00 0.00 21.50 153.4 5 5 74.00 55.00 0.08 14.50 167.9 5 6 63.00 54.00 0.25 8.50 176.4 5 7 69.00 47.00 0.01 8.48 184.9 5 8 75.00 41.00 0.00 10.02 194.9 5 9 78.00 44.00 0.00 12.09 207.0 5 10 74.00 48.00 0.00 11.24 218.2 5 11 68.00 48.00 0.00 8.27 226.5 5 12 53.00 40.00 0.02 0.63 227.1 5 13 64.00 41.00 0.01 5.00 232.1 5 14 77.00 47.00 0.00 12.41 244.5 5 15 85.00 56.00 0.81 20.50 265.0 1st egg laying by ow females 5 16 63.00 48.00 0.01 5.81 270.9 5 17 80.00 51.00 0.00 15.50 286.4 5 18 64.00 42.00 0.00 5.13 291.5 5 19 60.00 38.00 0.40 3.02 294.5 5 20 76.00 51.00 0.01 13.50 308.0 5 21 79.00 46.00 0.01 13.10 321.1 5 22 65.00 48.00 0.04 6.79 327.9 5 23 83.00 54.00 0.00 18.50 346.4 5 24 77.00 50.00 0.00 13.50 359.9 5 25 86.00 53.00 0.00 19.50 379.4 5 26 88.00 62.00 0.09 25.00 404.4 5 27 66.00 49.00 0.05 7.60 412.0 5 28 62.00 48.00 0.03 5.33 417.3 5 29 88.00 52.00 0.00 20.00 437.3 5 30 78.00 54.00 0.00 16.00 453.3 5 31 84.00 48.00 0.00 16.20 469.5 6 1 81.00 68.00 0.00 24.50 494.0 6 2 85.00 61.00 0.00 23.00 517.0 Peak (ca. 50%) egg laying by ow females; 1st adult emerge 1st gen 6 3 66.00 45.00 0.34 6.56 523.6 6 4 54.00 46.00 0.02 1.27 524.9 6 5 66.00 48.00 0.06 7.29 532.2 6 6 68.00 52.00 0.01 10.00 542.2 6 7 72.00 53.00 0.00 12.50 554.7 6 8 79.00 54.00 0.00 16.50 571.2 1st egg laying by 1st gen females 6 9 79.00 51.00 0.00 15.00 586.2 6 10 78.00 48.00 0.00 13.22 599.4 6 11 71.00 50.00 0.00 10.50 609.9 6 12 80.00 47.00 0.00 13.89 623.8 6 13 77.00 56.00 0.01 16.50 640.3 6 14 75.00 63.00 0.01 19.00 659.3 6 15 72.00 54.00 0.01 13.00 672.3 6 16 83.00 48.00 0.00 15.70 688.0 6 17 88.00 52.00 0.00 20.00 708.0 6 18 92.00 59.00 0.28 24.90 732.9 6 19 79.00 60.00 0.00 19.50 752.4 6 20 79.00 50.00 0.00 14.50 766.9 Peak adult emerge 1st gen 6 21 80.00 54.00 0.00 17.00 783.9 6 22 78.00 49.00 0.14 13.58 797.4 6 23 64.00 56.00 0.02 10.00 807.4 6 24 80.00 54.00 0.86 17.00 824.4 6 25 75.00 54.00 0.54 14.50 838.9 6 26 76.00 46.00 0.00 11.63 850.6 6 27 87.80 54.40 0.00 21.10 871.7 Px Pn 6 28 80.80 59.50 0.00 20.15 891.8 Px Pn 6 29 89.00 65.50 0.01 27.16 919.0 Pn 6 30 91.00 65.00 0.00 27.56 946.5 7 1 96.00 70.00 0.00 31.05 977.6 7 2 91.00 68.00 0.00 29.03 1006.6 Peak egg laying by 1st gen females; max 2+ gens. 7 3 95.00 71.00 0.00 31.34 1038.0 7 4 93.00 67.00 0.00 29.05 1067.0 7 5 93.00 68.00 0.25 29.53 1096.6 7 6 85.00 62.00 0.25 23.50 1120.1 7 7 79.00 50.00 0.00 14.50 1134.6 7 8 85.00 52.00 0.00 18.50 1153.1 7 9 90.00 60.00 0.00 24.78 1177.8 7 10 91.00 64.00 0.00 27.07 1204.9 7 11 82.00 59.00 0.00 20.50 1225.4 7 12 81.00 52.00 0.00 16.50 1241.9 7 13 85.00 58.00 0.00 21.50 1263.4 Peak adult emerge 2nd gen; max 3+ gens. 7 14 77.00 58.00 0.07 17.50 1280.9 7 15 85.00 64.00 0.04 24.50 1305.4 7 16 88.00 63.00 0.01 25.50 1330.9 7 17 89.00 70.00 1.35 29.40 1360.3 7 18 79.00 57.00 0.01 18.00 1378.3 7 19 82.00 50.00 0.00 16.00 1394.3 7 20 85.00 53.00 0.00 19.00 1413.3 7 21 78.00 56.00 0.30 17.00 1430.3 7 22 80.00 61.00 0.25 20.50 1450.8 7 23 85.00 72.00 0.14 28.50 1479.3 7 24 87.00 72.00 0.00 29.50 1508.8 Peak egg laying by 2nd gen females; max 4+ gens. 7 25 84.00 72.00 1.12 28.00 1536.8 7 26 83.00 70.00 0.04 26.50 1563.3 7 27 89.00 66.00 1.00 27.41 1590.7 7 28 87.00 67.00 0.12 27.00 1617.7 7 29 81.00 63.00 0.01 22.00 1639.7 7 30 82.00 59.00 0.00 20.50 1660.2 7 31 87.00 61.00 0.00 24.00 1684.2 8 1 78.00 64.00 0.12 21.00 1705.2 8 2 90.00 71.00 0.00 30.22 1735.4 8 3 88.00 70.00 0.42 29.00 1764.4 Peak adult emerge 3rd gen; max 5 gens. 8 4 81.00 68.00 0.41 24.50 1788.9 8 5 90.00 64.00 0.01 26.76 1815.7 8 6 92.00 66.00 0.01 28.32 1844.0 8 7 92.00 71.00 0.10 30.74 1874.8 8 8 88.00 69.00 0.08 28.50 1903.3 8 9 86.00 69.00 0.04 27.50 1930.8 8 10 83.00 64.00 0.00 23.50 1954.3 8 11 70.00 63.00 1.75 16.50 1970.8 8 12 70.00 66.00 0.45 18.00 1988.8 Peak egg laying by 3rd gen females; max 6+ gens. 8 13 72.00 66.00 0.10 19.00 2007.8 8 14 80.00 67.00 1.46 23.50 2031.3 8 15 86.00 67.00 0.01 26.50 2057.8 8 16 87.00 68.00 0.00 27.50 2085.3 8 17 85.00 64.00 0.76 24.50 2109.8 8 18 81.00 66.00 0.10 23.50 2133.3 8 19 76.00 61.00 0.00 18.50 2151.8 8 20 76.00 58.00 0.00 17.00 2168.8 8 21 72.00 57.00 0.46 14.50 2183.3 8 22 80.00 64.00 0.04 22.00 2205.3 8 23 75.00 56.00 0.00 15.50 2220.8 8 24 84.00 52.00 0.01 18.00 2238.8 Peak adult emerge 4th gen; max 6+ gens. 8 25 82.00 59.00 0.01 20.50 2259.3 8 26 83.00 58.00 0.00 20.50 2279.8 8 27 86.00 65.00 0.00 25.50 2305.3 8 28 92.00 70.00 0.00 30.26 2335.5 8 29 94.00 72.00 0.00 31.63 2367.2 8 30 83.00 63.00 0.00 23.00 2390.2 8 31 74.00 56.00 0.00 15.00 2405.2 9 1 75.00 55.00 0.00 15.00 2420.2 9 2 84.00 58.00 0.00 21.00 2441.2 9 3 92.00 70.00 0.00 30.26 2471.4 9 4 88.00 68.00 0.00 28.00 2499.4 Peak egg laying by 4th gen females; max 7+ gens. 9 5 90.00 64.00 0.00 26.76 2526.2 9 6 92.00 69.00 0.05 29.78 2556.0 9 7 72.00 60.00 0.01 16.00 2572.0 9 8 68.00 50.00 0.01 9.00 2581.0 9 9 62.00 47.00 0.00 5.08 2586.0 9 10 64.00 48.00 1.23 6.30 2592.4 9 11 77.00 58.00 0.03 17.50 2609.9 9 12 69.00 64.00 0.09 16.50 2626.4 9 13 74.00 61.00 0.01 17.50 2643.9 9 14 77.00 61.00 0.01 19.00 2662.9 9 15 78.00 61.00 0.01 19.50 2682.4 Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 C8371 PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021