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invasive insect model of OSU OIPMC model analysis vers. 3.0 |
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Output from uspest.org/wea invasive insect degree-day/phenology model program: Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================ Model species/general links: spotted wing Drosophila [fruit] Type: invasive insect Model source/other links: OSU OIPMC model analysis vers. 3.0 Calculation method: single sine Lower threshold: 50 degrees Fahrenheit Upper threshold: 88 degrees Fahrenheit Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1 Ending date: 9 15 Model validation status: partly validated-has been compared to 2 years of field data in PNW Region of known use: potential for use in US ==============================EVENTS TABLE================================ 1. 261 DDs after Jan 1: 1st egg laying by ow females 2. 510 DDs after Jan 1: Peak (ca. 50%) egg laying by ow females; 1st adult emerge 1st gen 3. 565 DDs after Jan 1: 1st egg laying by 1st gen females 4. 755 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 1st gen 5. 995 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 1st gen females; max 2+ gens. 6. 1249 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 2nd gen; max 3+ gens. 7. 1489 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 2nd gen females; max 4+ gens. 8. 1743 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 3rd gen; max 5 gens. 9. 1983 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 3rd gen females; max 6+ gens. 10. 2237 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 4th gen; max 6+ gens. 11. 2477 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 4th gen females; max 7+ gens. 12. 2731 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 5th gen; max 8+ gens. 13. 2971 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 5th gen females; max 9+ gens. ==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================ Weather station: 2018 C7955 APRSWXNET Aberdeen CW7955 NC Lat35.1278 Long:-79.3994 Elev:521 mn day max min precip DD50 CUMDD50 event -- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- ------- 1 1 53.30 32.20 0.10 0.56 0.6 * START *NMME 1 2 53.20 32.10 0.10 0.54 1.1 NMME 1 3 53.20 32.00 0.10 0.54 1.6 NMME 1 4 53.10 32.00 0.10 0.51 2.1 NMME 1 5 53.10 31.90 0.10 0.51 2.7 NMME 1 6 53.00 31.80 0.10 0.49 3.1 NMME 1 7 53.00 31.80 0.10 0.49 3.6 NMME 1 8 53.00 31.70 0.10 0.48 4.1 NMME 1 9 53.00 31.70 0.10 0.48 4.6 NMME 1 10 53.00 31.70 0.10 0.48 5.1 NMME 1 11 53.00 31.70 0.10 0.48 5.6 NMME 1 12 53.00 31.60 0.10 0.48 6.1 NMME 1 13 53.00 31.60 0.10 0.48 6.5 NMME 1 14 53.00 31.60 0.10 0.48 7.0 NMME 1 15 53.10 31.60 0.11 0.51 7.5 NMME 1 16 53.10 31.60 0.11 0.51 8.0 NMME 1 17 53.20 31.60 0.11 0.53 8.6 NMME 1 18 53.20 31.70 0.11 0.53 9.1 NMME 1 19 53.30 31.70 0.11 0.56 9.7 NMME 1 20 53.30 31.70 0.11 0.56 10.2 NMME 1 21 53.40 31.70 0.11 0.58 10.8 NMME 1 22 53.50 31.80 0.11 0.61 11.4 NMME 1 23 53.60 31.80 0.11 0.63 12.0 NMME 1 24 53.70 31.90 0.11 0.66 12.7 NMME 1 25 53.80 31.90 0.11 0.68 13.4 NMME 1 26 53.90 32.00 0.11 0.71 14.1 NMME 1 27 54.00 32.10 0.11 0.74 14.8 NMME 1 28 54.20 32.10 0.11 0.79 15.6 NMME 1 29 54.30 32.20 0.10 0.82 16.4 NMME 1 30 54.40 32.30 0.10 0.85 17.3 NMME 1 31 54.60 32.40 0.10 0.91 18.2 NMME 2 1 54.90 32.70 0.11 1.00 19.2 NMME 2 2 55.10 32.80 0.11 1.06 20.3 NMME 2 3 55.30 32.90 0.10 1.12 21.4 NMME 2 4 55.40 33.00 0.10 1.15 22.5 NMME 2 5 55.60 33.20 0.10 1.22 23.8 NMME 2 6 55.80 33.30 0.10 1.29 25.0 NMME 2 7 56.00 33.40 0.10 1.35 26.4 NMME 2 8 56.20 33.50 0.10 1.42 27.8 NMME 2 9 56.40 33.70 0.10 1.49 29.3 NMME 2 10 56.60 33.80 0.10 1.56 30.9 NMME 2 11 56.80 34.00 0.10 1.63 32.5 NMME 2 12 57.00 34.10 0.10 1.70 34.2 NMME 2 13 57.20 34.30 0.10 1.77 36.0 NMME 2 14 57.40 34.40 0.10 1.85 37.8 NMME 2 15 57.60 34.60 0.11 1.92 39.7 NMME 2 16 57.90 34.70 0.11 2.03 41.8 NMME 2 17 58.10 34.90 0.11 2.11 43.9 NMME 2 18 58.30 35.10 0.11 2.19 46.1 NMME 2 19 58.60 35.30 0.11 2.31 48.4 NMME 2 20 58.80 35.50 0.11 2.39 50.8 NMME 2 21 59.10 35.60 0.11 2.51 53.3 NMME 2 22 59.30 35.80 0.11 2.60 55.9 NMME 2 23 59.60 36.00 0.11 2.72 58.6 NMME 2 24 59.80 36.20 0.11 2.81 61.4 NMME 2 25 60.10 36.40 0.11 2.94 64.3 NMME 2 26 60.40 36.70 0.11 3.08 67.4 NMME 2 27 60.70 36.90 0.11 3.21 70.6 NMME 2 28 61.00 37.10 0.12 3.34 74.0 NMME 3 1 61.30 37.40 0.11 3.48 77.4 NMME 3 2 61.60 37.60 0.11 3.62 81.1 NMME 3 3 61.90 37.90 0.11 3.77 84.8 NMME 3 4 62.20 38.10 0.11 3.91 88.7 NMME 3 5 62.50 38.30 0.12 4.05 92.8 NMME 3 6 62.80 38.60 0.12 4.21 97.0 NMME 3 7 63.10 38.80 0.12 4.35 101.4 NMME 3 8 63.40 39.00 0.12 4.50 105.9 NMME 3 9 63.70 39.30 0.12 4.66 110.5 NMME 3 10 64.00 39.50 0.12 4.81 115.3 NMME 3 11 64.30 39.80 0.12 4.98 120.3 NMME 3 12 64.60 40.00 0.12 5.13 125.5 NMME 3 13 65.00 40.30 0.12 5.35 130.8 NMME 3 14 65.30 40.50 0.12 5.51 136.3 NMME 3 15 65.60 40.80 0.12 5.68 142.0 NMME 3 16 65.90 41.10 0.12 5.86 147.8 NMME 3 17 66.20 41.30 0.12 6.02 153.9 NMME 3 18 66.50 41.60 0.11 6.20 160.1 NMME 3 19 66.80 41.90 0.11 6.38 166.4 NMME 3 20 67.20 42.10 0.11 6.60 173.0 NMME 3 21 67.50 42.40 0.11 6.78 179.8 NMME 3 22 67.80 42.70 0.11 6.97 186.8 NMME 3 23 68.10 42.90 0.11 7.15 193.9 NMME 3 24 68.50 43.20 0.11 7.39 201.3 NMME 3 25 68.80 43.50 0.11 7.59 208.9 NMME 3 26 69.10 43.80 0.10 7.79 216.7 NMME 3 27 69.50 44.10 0.10 8.04 224.7 NMME 3 28 69.80 44.40 0.10 8.24 233.0 NMME 3 29 70.10 44.70 0.10 8.45 241.4 NMME 3 30 70.50 45.00 0.10 8.71 250.2 NMME 3 31 70.80 45.20 0.10 8.90 259.0 NMME 4 1 70.70 45.10 0.10 8.83 267.9 NMME 1st egg laying by ow females 4 2 71.00 45.40 0.10 9.04 276.9 NMME 4 3 71.30 45.70 0.09 9.26 286.2 NMME 4 4 71.70 46.00 0.09 9.53 295.7 NMME 4 5 72.00 46.30 0.09 9.75 305.5 NMME 4 6 72.30 46.60 0.09 9.98 315.4 NMME 4 7 72.60 46.90 0.09 10.21 325.7 NMME 4 8 72.90 47.10 0.09 10.42 336.1 NMME 4 9 73.20 47.40 0.08 10.65 346.7 NMME 4 10 73.50 47.70 0.08 10.89 357.6 NMME 4 11 73.80 48.00 0.08 11.14 368.8 NMME 4 12 74.10 48.30 0.08 11.39 380.1 NMME 4 13 74.40 48.60 0.08 11.64 391.8 NMME 4 14 74.70 48.90 0.08 11.90 403.7 NMME 4 15 74.90 49.20 0.08 12.11 415.8 NMME 4 16 75.20 49.50 0.08 12.38 428.2 NMME 4 17 75.50 49.70 0.07 12.61 440.8 NMME 4 18 75.70 50.00 0.07 12.85 453.6 NMME 4 19 76.00 50.30 0.07 13.15 466.8 NMME 4 20 76.20 50.60 0.07 13.40 480.2 NMME 4 21 76.50 50.90 0.07 13.70 493.9 NMME 4 22 76.70 51.20 0.07 13.95 507.8 NMME 4 23 77.00 51.40 0.07 14.20 522.0 NMME Peak (ca. 50%) egg laying by ow females; 1st adult emerge 1st gen 4 24 77.20 51.70 0.07 14.45 536.5 NMME 4 25 77.40 52.00 0.07 14.70 551.2 NMME 4 26 77.60 52.30 0.07 14.95 566.1 NMME 1st egg laying by 1st gen females 4 27 77.90 52.60 0.07 15.25 581.4 NMME 4 28 78.10 52.80 0.07 15.45 596.8 NMME 4 29 78.30 53.10 0.07 15.70 612.5 NMME 4 30 78.50 53.40 0.07 15.95 628.5 NMME 5 1 78.70 53.70 0.07 16.20 644.7 NMME 5 2 78.90 54.00 0.07 16.45 661.1 NMME 5 3 79.10 54.30 0.07 16.70 677.8 NMME 5 4 79.30 54.60 0.07 16.95 694.8 NMME 5 5 79.60 54.90 0.07 17.25 712.0 NMME 5 6 79.80 55.10 0.07 17.45 729.5 NMME 5 7 80.00 55.40 0.07 17.70 747.2 NMME 5 8 80.20 55.70 0.07 17.95 765.1 NMME Peak adult emerge 1st gen 5 9 80.40 56.00 0.07 18.20 783.3 NMME 5 10 80.60 56.30 0.07 18.45 801.8 NMME 5 11 80.90 56.60 0.07 18.75 820.5 NMME 5 12 81.10 56.90 0.07 19.00 839.5 NMME 5 13 81.30 57.20 0.08 19.25 858.8 NMME 5 14 81.50 57.50 0.08 19.50 878.3 NMME 5 15 81.80 57.80 0.08 19.80 898.1 NMME 5 16 82.00 58.10 0.08 20.05 918.1 NMME 5 17 82.30 58.40 0.08 20.35 938.5 NMME 5 18 82.50 58.80 0.08 20.65 959.1 NMME 5 19 82.70 59.10 0.08 20.90 980.0 NMME 5 20 83.00 59.40 0.08 21.20 1001.2 NMME Peak egg laying by 1st gen females; max 2+ gens. 5 21 83.20 59.70 0.08 21.45 1022.7 NMME 5 22 83.50 60.00 0.08 21.75 1044.4 NMME 5 23 83.70 60.40 0.08 22.05 1066.5 NMME 5 24 84.00 60.70 0.09 22.35 1088.8 NMME 5 25 84.30 61.00 0.09 22.65 1111.5 NMME 5 26 84.50 61.30 0.09 22.90 1134.4 NMME 5 27 84.80 61.70 0.09 23.25 1157.6 NMME 5 28 85.00 62.00 0.09 23.50 1181.1 NMME 5 29 85.30 62.30 0.09 23.80 1204.9 NMME 5 30 85.60 62.70 0.09 24.15 1229.1 NMME 5 31 85.90 63.00 0.09 24.45 1253.5 NMME Peak adult emerge 2nd gen; max 3+ gens. 6 1 86.30 63.50 0.10 24.90 1278.4 NMME 6 2 86.50 63.80 0.10 25.15 1303.6 NMME 6 3 86.80 64.20 0.11 25.50 1329.1 NMME 6 4 87.10 64.50 0.11 25.80 1354.9 NMME 6 5 87.30 64.80 0.11 26.05 1380.9 NMME 6 6 87.60 65.10 0.11 26.35 1407.3 NMME 6 7 87.80 65.40 0.11 26.60 1433.9 NMME 6 8 88.00 65.70 0.11 26.85 1460.7 NMME 6 9 88.20 66.00 0.11 27.09 1487.8 NMME 6 10 88.50 66.20 0.11 27.32 1515.1 NMME Peak egg laying by 2nd gen females; max 4+ gens. 6 11 88.70 66.50 0.12 27.55 1542.7 NMME 6 12 88.90 66.70 0.12 27.72 1570.4 NMME 6 13 89.10 67.00 0.12 27.95 1598.4 NMME 6 14 89.30 67.20 0.12 28.12 1626.5 NMME 6 15 89.40 67.40 0.12 28.25 1654.7 NMME 6 16 89.60 67.70 0.12 28.47 1683.2 NMME 6 17 89.80 67.90 0.12 28.63 1711.8 NMME 6 18 89.90 68.10 0.12 28.76 1740.6 NMME 6 19 90.10 68.30 0.12 28.92 1769.5 NMME Peak adult emerge 3rd gen; max 5 gens. 6 20 90.20 68.50 0.12 29.05 1798.6 NMME 6 21 90.40 68.60 0.12 29.16 1827.7 NMME 6 22 90.50 68.80 0.12 29.29 1857.0 NMME 6 23 90.60 69.00 0.13 29.41 1886.4 NMME 6 24 90.80 69.10 0.13 29.52 1915.9 NMME 6 25 90.90 69.30 0.13 29.64 1945.6 NMME 6 26 91.00 69.40 0.13 29.72 1975.3 NMME 6 27 91.10 69.50 0.13 29.79 2005.1 NMME Peak egg laying by 3rd gen females; max 6+ gens. 6 28 91.20 69.60 0.13 29.87 2034.9 NMME 6 29 91.30 69.80 0.13 29.99 2064.9 NMME 6 30 91.30 69.90 0.13 30.04 2095.0 NMME 7 1 91.40 70.00 0.15 30.12 2125.1 NMME 7 2 91.50 70.10 0.15 30.19 2155.3 NMME 7 3 91.60 70.20 0.15 30.26 2185.5 NMME 7 4 91.60 70.20 0.15 30.26 2215.8 NMME 7 5 91.70 70.30 0.15 30.34 2246.1 NMME Peak adult emerge 4th gen; max 6+ gens. 7 6 91.70 70.40 0.15 30.38 2276.5 NMME 7 7 91.80 70.50 0.15 30.46 2307.0 NMME 7 8 91.80 70.50 0.15 30.46 2337.4 NMME 7 9 91.90 70.60 0.15 30.53 2368.0 NMME 7 10 91.90 70.60 0.15 30.53 2398.5 NMME 7 11 91.90 70.70 0.15 30.58 2429.1 NMME 7 12 91.90 70.70 0.15 30.58 2459.7 NMME 7 13 92.00 70.80 0.15 30.65 2490.3 NMME Peak egg laying by 4th gen females; max 7+ gens. 7 14 92.00 70.80 0.15 30.65 2520.9 NMME 7 15 92.00 70.90 0.15 30.70 2551.6 NMME 7 16 92.00 70.90 0.15 30.70 2582.3 NMME 7 17 92.00 70.90 0.15 30.70 2613.0 NMME 7 18 92.00 71.00 0.15 30.74 2643.8 NMME 7 19 92.00 71.00 0.15 30.74 2674.5 NMME 7 20 92.00 71.00 0.15 30.74 2705.3 NMME 7 21 92.00 71.00 0.15 30.74 2736.0 NMME Peak adult emerge 5th gen; max 8+ gens. 7 22 91.90 71.00 0.15 30.72 2766.7 NMME 7 23 91.90 71.00 0.15 30.72 2797.5 NMME 7 24 91.90 71.00 0.15 30.72 2828.2 NMME 7 25 91.80 71.00 0.14 30.70 2858.9 NMME 7 26 91.80 71.00 0.14 30.70 2889.6 NMME 7 27 91.80 71.00 0.14 30.70 2920.3 NMME 7 28 91.70 71.00 0.14 30.67 2950.9 NMME 7 29 91.70 71.00 0.14 30.67 2981.6 NMME Peak egg laying by 5th gen females; max 9+ gens. 7 30 91.60 71.00 0.14 30.65 3012.3 NMME 7 31 91.50 70.90 0.14 30.58 3042.8 NMME 8 1 88.50 70.00 0.38 29.22 3072.1 Hx Hn 8 2 88.20 69.60 0.08 28.89 3100.9 Hx Hn 8 3 88.70 70.00 0.13 29.29 3130.2 Hx Hn 8 4 90.60 70.10 0.01 29.95 3160.2 Hx Hn 8 5 91.60 71.70 0.02 30.99 3191.2 Hx Hn 8 6 91.80 71.80 0.28 31.08 3222.3 Hx Hn 8 7 91.30 71.90 0.07 31.01 3253.3 Hx Hn 8 8 90.10 71.10 0.16 30.30 3283.6 Hx Hn 8 9 90.90 69.70 0.19 29.84 3313.4 Hx Hn 8 10 90.60 71.10 0.16 30.44 3343.9 Hx Hn 8 11 91.70 71.40 0.18 30.87 3374.7 Hx Hn 8 12 90.30 70.30 0.09 29.97 3404.7 Hx Hn 8 13 89.70 69.60 0.08 29.44 3434.1 Hx Hn 8 14 86.70 67.70 0.37 27.20 3461.3 Hx Hn 8 15 87.60 67.00 0.04 27.30 3488.6 Hx Hn 8 16 88.80 67.90 0.05 28.28 3516.9 Hx Hn 8 17 87.70 69.00 0.15 28.35 3545.3 Hx Hn 8 18 88.90 69.20 0.28 28.97 3574.2 Hx Hn 8 19 89.70 69.80 0.12 29.54 3603.8 Hx Hn 8 20 88.40 70.80 0.74 29.57 3633.3 Hx Hn 8 21 89.30 71.30 0.05 30.15 3663.5 Hx Hn 8 22 90.80 69.80 0.17 29.86 3693.3 Hx Hn 8 23 89.10 68.70 0.16 28.79 3722.1 Hx Hn 8 24 87.50 67.80 0.06 27.65 3749.8 Hx Hn 8 25 86.00 65.60 0.03 25.80 3775.6 Hx Hn 8 26 86.90 66.40 0.11 26.65 3802.2 Hx Hn 8 27 87.30 67.70 0.26 27.50 3829.7 Hx Hn 8 28 88.50 68.00 0.14 28.22 3858.0 Hx Hn 8 29 88.80 68.40 0.06 28.53 3886.5 Hx Hn 8 30 88.70 67.70 0.06 28.15 3914.6 Hx Hn 8 31 87.90 67.60 0.09 27.75 3942.4 Hx Hn 9 1 87.50 67.50 0.01 27.50 3969.9 Hx Hn 9 2 89.50 66.50 0.04 27.84 3997.7 Hx Hn 9 3 87.20 65.90 0.33 26.55 4024.3 Hx Hn 9 4 88.80 65.70 0.47 27.19 4051.5 Hx Hn 9 5 88.20 64.90 0.01 26.54 4078.0 Hx Hn 9 6 86.90 66.40 0.61 26.65 4104.6 Hx Hn 9 7 87.40 66.20 0.15 26.80 4131.4 Hx Hn 9 8 86.80 66.20 0.09 26.50 4157.9 Hx Hn 9 9 87.40 64.50 0.16 25.95 4183.9 Hx Hn 9 10 86.40 65.00 0.12 25.70 4209.6 Hx Hn 9 11 85.70 64.60 0.08 25.15 4234.7 Hx Hn 9 12 85.30 66.30 0.01 25.80 4260.5 Hx Hn 9 13 85.30 64.00 0.02 24.65 4285.2 Hx Hn 9 14 85.00 61.50 0.03 23.25 4308.4 Hx Hn 9 15 84.70 61.90 0.13 23.30 4331.7 Hx Hn Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 C7955 PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021