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invasive insect model of OSU OIPMC model analysis vers. 3.0 |
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Output from uspest.org/wea invasive insect degree-day/phenology model program: Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================ Model species/general links: spotted wing Drosophila [fruit] Type: invasive insect Model source/other links: OSU OIPMC model analysis vers. 3.0 Calculation method: single sine Lower threshold: 50 degrees Fahrenheit Upper threshold: 88 degrees Fahrenheit Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1 Ending date: 9 15 Model validation status: partly validated-has been compared to 2 years of field data in PNW Region of known use: potential for use in US ==============================EVENTS TABLE================================ 1. 261 DDs after Jan 1: 1st egg laying by ow females 2. 510 DDs after Jan 1: Peak (ca. 50%) egg laying by ow females; 1st adult emerge 1st gen 3. 565 DDs after Jan 1: 1st egg laying by 1st gen females 4. 755 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 1st gen 5. 995 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 1st gen females; max 2+ gens. 6. 1249 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 2nd gen; max 3+ gens. 7. 1489 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 2nd gen females; max 4+ gens. 8. 1743 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 3rd gen; max 5 gens. 9. 1983 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 3rd gen females; max 6+ gens. 10. 2237 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 4th gen; max 6+ gens. 11. 2477 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 4th gen females; max 7+ gens. 12. 2731 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 5th gen; max 8+ gens. 13. 2971 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 5th gen females; max 9+ gens. ==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================ Weather station: 2018 C2951 APRSWXNET Jacksonville CW2951 NC Lat34.7578 Long:-77.3822 Elev:36 mn day max min precip DD50 CUMDD50 event -- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- ------- 1 1 55.90 34.20 0.08 1.34 1.3 * START *NMME 1 2 55.80 34.20 0.08 1.31 2.7 NMME 1 3 55.80 34.10 0.08 1.31 4.0 NMME 1 4 55.70 34.10 0.08 1.28 5.2 NMME 1 5 55.60 34.00 0.08 1.24 6.5 NMME 1 6 55.60 34.00 0.08 1.24 7.7 NMME 1 7 55.50 33.90 0.08 1.21 8.9 NMME 1 8 55.50 33.90 0.09 1.21 10.2 NMME 1 9 55.40 33.90 0.09 1.18 11.3 NMME 1 10 55.40 33.90 0.09 1.18 12.5 NMME 1 11 55.40 33.90 0.09 1.18 13.7 NMME 1 12 55.40 33.80 0.09 1.18 14.9 NMME 1 13 55.40 33.80 0.09 1.18 16.1 NMME 1 14 55.40 33.80 0.09 1.18 17.2 NMME 1 15 55.40 33.80 0.09 1.18 18.4 NMME 1 16 55.40 33.90 0.09 1.18 19.6 NMME 1 17 55.50 33.90 0.09 1.21 20.8 NMME 1 18 55.50 33.90 0.09 1.21 22.0 NMME 1 19 55.60 33.90 0.09 1.24 23.2 NMME 1 20 55.60 34.00 0.09 1.24 24.5 NMME 1 21 55.70 34.00 0.09 1.28 25.8 NMME 1 22 55.70 34.10 0.08 1.28 27.0 NMME 1 23 55.80 34.10 0.08 1.31 28.4 NMME 1 24 55.90 34.20 0.08 1.34 29.7 NMME 1 25 56.00 34.20 0.08 1.38 31.1 NMME 1 26 56.10 34.30 0.08 1.41 32.5 NMME 1 27 56.20 34.40 0.08 1.45 33.9 NMME 1 28 56.30 34.40 0.08 1.48 35.4 NMME 1 29 56.50 34.50 0.08 1.55 37.0 NMME 1 30 56.60 34.60 0.08 1.59 38.6 NMME 1 31 56.80 34.70 0.08 1.66 40.2 NMME 2 1 57.10 35.00 0.09 1.77 42.0 NMME 2 2 57.30 35.10 0.09 1.84 43.8 NMME 2 3 57.40 35.20 0.09 1.88 45.7 NMME 2 4 57.60 35.30 0.09 1.96 47.7 NMME 2 5 57.80 35.50 0.09 2.04 49.7 NMME 2 6 57.90 35.60 0.09 2.08 51.8 NMME 2 7 58.10 35.70 0.09 2.15 53.9 NMME 2 8 58.30 35.80 0.09 2.23 56.1 NMME 2 9 58.40 35.90 0.09 2.27 58.4 NMME 2 10 58.60 36.10 0.09 2.36 60.8 NMME 2 11 58.80 36.20 0.09 2.44 63.2 NMME 2 12 59.00 36.30 0.09 2.52 65.7 NMME 2 13 59.20 36.50 0.09 2.60 68.3 NMME 2 14 59.30 36.60 0.09 2.65 71.0 NMME 2 15 59.50 36.80 0.09 2.74 73.7 NMME 2 16 59.70 36.90 0.09 2.82 76.5 NMME 2 17 59.90 37.10 0.09 2.91 79.4 NMME 2 18 60.10 37.20 0.09 2.99 82.4 NMME 2 19 60.30 37.40 0.09 3.09 85.5 NMME 2 20 60.50 37.60 0.09 3.18 88.7 NMME 2 21 60.70 37.70 0.09 3.27 92.0 NMME 2 22 60.90 37.90 0.09 3.37 95.3 NMME 2 23 61.10 38.10 0.09 3.46 98.8 NMME 2 24 61.30 38.30 0.09 3.56 102.4 NMME 2 25 61.50 38.40 0.10 3.65 106.0 NMME 2 26 61.70 38.60 0.10 3.75 109.8 NMME 2 27 61.90 38.80 0.10 3.85 113.6 NMME 2 28 62.10 39.00 0.10 3.96 117.6 NMME 3 1 62.40 39.20 0.09 4.10 121.7 NMME 3 2 62.60 39.40 0.10 4.21 125.9 NMME 3 3 62.80 39.60 0.10 4.31 130.2 NMME 3 4 63.00 39.90 0.10 4.43 134.6 NMME 3 5 63.30 40.10 0.10 4.58 139.2 NMME 3 6 63.50 40.30 0.10 4.69 143.9 NMME 3 7 63.70 40.50 0.10 4.80 148.7 NMME 3 8 64.00 40.70 0.10 4.96 153.7 NMME 3 9 64.20 40.90 0.10 5.07 158.7 NMME 3 10 64.50 41.10 0.10 5.23 164.0 NMME 3 11 64.70 41.30 0.10 5.35 169.3 NMME 3 12 65.00 41.60 0.10 5.52 174.8 NMME 3 13 65.20 41.80 0.10 5.64 180.5 NMME 3 14 65.50 42.00 0.10 5.81 186.3 NMME 3 15 65.70 42.20 0.10 5.93 192.2 NMME 3 16 66.00 42.50 0.10 6.11 198.3 NMME 3 17 66.20 42.70 0.10 6.24 204.6 NMME 3 18 66.50 42.90 0.10 6.41 211.0 NMME 3 19 66.80 43.20 0.10 6.60 217.6 NMME 3 20 67.00 43.40 0.10 6.73 224.3 NMME 3 21 67.30 43.60 0.10 6.90 231.2 NMME 3 22 67.60 43.90 0.10 7.10 238.3 NMME 3 23 67.90 44.10 0.10 7.28 245.6 NMME 3 24 68.20 44.40 0.10 7.48 253.1 NMME 3 25 68.40 44.60 0.09 7.62 260.7 NMME 3 26 68.70 44.90 0.09 7.82 268.5 NMME 1st egg laying by ow females 3 27 69.00 45.10 0.09 8.01 276.5 NMME 3 28 69.30 45.40 0.09 8.22 284.7 NMME 3 29 69.60 45.70 0.09 8.44 293.2 NMME 3 30 69.90 45.90 0.08 8.63 301.8 NMME 3 31 70.20 46.20 0.08 8.85 310.7 NMME 4 1 70.30 46.20 0.09 8.90 319.6 NMME 4 2 70.60 46.40 0.09 9.10 328.7 NMME 4 3 70.90 46.70 0.08 9.32 338.0 NMME 4 4 71.20 47.00 0.08 9.55 347.5 NMME 4 5 71.50 47.20 0.08 9.76 357.3 NMME 4 6 71.70 47.50 0.08 9.94 367.2 NMME 4 7 72.00 47.80 0.08 10.18 377.4 NMME 4 8 72.30 48.00 0.08 10.40 387.8 NMME 4 9 72.60 48.30 0.07 10.64 398.5 NMME 4 10 72.90 48.60 0.07 10.89 409.4 NMME 4 11 73.10 48.80 0.07 11.06 420.4 NMME 4 12 73.40 49.10 0.07 11.32 431.7 NMME 4 13 73.70 49.40 0.07 11.59 443.3 NMME 4 14 74.00 49.70 0.07 11.86 455.2 NMME 4 15 74.20 49.90 0.07 12.05 467.2 NMME 4 16 74.50 50.20 0.07 12.35 479.6 NMME 4 17 74.70 50.50 0.07 12.60 492.2 NMME 4 18 75.00 50.70 0.07 12.85 505.0 NMME 4 19 75.20 51.00 0.07 13.10 518.1 NMME Peak (ca. 50%) egg laying by ow females; 1st adult emerge 1st gen 4 20 75.50 51.30 0.07 13.40 531.5 NMME 4 21 75.70 51.60 0.07 13.65 545.2 NMME 4 22 75.90 51.80 0.07 13.85 559.0 NMME 4 23 76.20 52.10 0.07 14.15 573.2 NMME 1st egg laying by 1st gen females 4 24 76.40 52.40 0.07 14.40 587.6 NMME 4 25 76.60 52.70 0.07 14.65 602.2 NMME 4 26 76.90 52.90 0.07 14.90 617.1 NMME 4 27 77.10 53.20 0.07 15.15 632.3 NMME 4 28 77.30 53.50 0.07 15.40 647.7 NMME 4 29 77.50 53.80 0.07 15.65 663.3 NMME 4 30 77.70 54.00 0.07 15.85 679.2 NMME 5 1 77.90 54.30 0.08 16.10 695.3 NMME 5 2 78.10 54.60 0.08 16.35 711.6 NMME 5 3 78.30 54.80 0.08 16.55 728.2 NMME 5 4 78.60 55.10 0.08 16.85 745.0 NMME 5 5 78.80 55.40 0.08 17.10 762.1 NMME Peak adult emerge 1st gen 5 6 79.00 55.70 0.08 17.35 779.5 NMME 5 7 79.20 56.00 0.08 17.60 797.1 NMME 5 8 79.40 56.30 0.09 17.85 814.9 NMME 5 9 79.60 56.60 0.09 18.10 833.0 NMME 5 10 79.80 56.90 0.09 18.35 851.4 NMME 5 11 80.00 57.20 0.09 18.60 870.0 NMME 5 12 80.30 57.50 0.09 18.90 888.9 NMME 5 13 80.50 57.80 0.09 19.15 908.0 NMME 5 14 80.70 58.10 0.09 19.40 927.4 NMME 5 15 80.90 58.40 0.09 19.65 947.1 NMME 5 16 81.10 58.70 0.09 19.90 967.0 NMME 5 17 81.40 59.00 0.09 20.20 987.2 NMME 5 18 81.60 59.30 0.09 20.45 1007.6 NMME Peak egg laying by 1st gen females; max 2+ gens. 5 19 81.80 59.60 0.09 20.70 1028.3 NMME 5 20 82.00 59.90 0.09 20.95 1049.3 NMME 5 21 82.30 60.30 0.09 21.30 1070.6 NMME 5 22 82.50 60.60 0.10 21.55 1092.1 NMME 5 23 82.70 60.90 0.10 21.80 1113.9 NMME 5 24 82.90 61.20 0.10 22.05 1136.0 NMME 5 25 83.20 61.60 0.10 22.40 1158.4 NMME 5 26 83.40 61.90 0.10 22.65 1181.0 NMME 5 27 83.60 62.20 0.10 22.90 1203.9 NMME 5 28 83.80 62.50 0.10 23.15 1227.1 NMME 5 29 84.10 62.90 0.10 23.50 1250.6 NMME Peak adult emerge 2nd gen; max 3+ gens. 5 30 84.30 63.20 0.10 23.75 1274.3 NMME 5 31 84.50 63.50 0.10 24.00 1298.3 NMME 6 1 84.90 64.00 0.10 24.45 1322.8 NMME 6 2 85.10 64.30 0.10 24.70 1347.5 NMME 6 3 85.30 64.60 0.10 24.95 1372.4 NMME 6 4 85.50 65.00 0.10 25.25 1397.7 NMME 6 5 85.70 65.30 0.10 25.50 1423.2 NMME 6 6 86.00 65.60 0.10 25.80 1449.0 NMME 6 7 86.20 65.90 0.10 26.05 1475.0 NMME 6 8 86.40 66.20 0.10 26.30 1501.3 NMME Peak egg laying by 2nd gen females; max 4+ gens. 6 9 86.60 66.50 0.10 26.55 1527.9 NMME 6 10 86.70 66.70 0.10 26.70 1554.6 NMME 6 11 86.90 67.00 0.10 26.95 1581.5 NMME 6 12 87.10 67.30 0.10 27.20 1608.7 NMME 6 13 87.30 67.50 0.10 27.40 1636.1 NMME 6 14 87.40 67.80 0.10 27.60 1663.7 NMME 6 15 87.60 68.00 0.10 27.80 1691.5 NMME 6 16 87.80 68.20 0.10 28.00 1719.5 NMME 6 17 87.90 68.50 0.10 28.20 1747.7 NMME Peak adult emerge 3rd gen; max 5 gens. 6 18 88.10 68.70 0.10 28.40 1776.1 NMME 6 19 88.20 68.90 0.10 28.54 1804.7 NMME 6 20 88.40 69.10 0.10 28.73 1833.4 NMME 6 21 88.50 69.30 0.10 28.87 1862.3 NMME 6 22 88.60 69.50 0.11 29.00 1891.3 NMME 6 23 88.80 69.70 0.11 29.18 1920.5 NMME 6 24 88.90 69.90 0.11 29.32 1949.8 NMME 6 25 89.00 70.00 0.11 29.40 1979.2 NMME 6 26 89.10 70.20 0.11 29.54 2008.7 NMME Peak egg laying by 3rd gen females; max 6+ gens. 6 27 89.20 70.40 0.11 29.67 2038.4 NMME 6 28 89.30 70.50 0.11 29.75 2068.1 NMME 6 29 89.40 70.70 0.11 29.89 2098.0 NMME 6 30 89.50 70.80 0.11 29.97 2128.0 NMME 7 1 89.60 70.90 0.12 30.05 2158.0 NMME 7 2 89.70 71.10 0.12 30.18 2188.2 NMME 7 3 89.80 71.20 0.12 30.26 2218.5 NMME 7 4 89.90 71.30 0.12 30.34 2248.8 NMME Peak adult emerge 4th gen; max 6+ gens. 7 5 89.90 71.40 0.12 30.39 2279.2 NMME 7 6 90.00 71.50 0.12 30.47 2309.7 NMME 7 7 90.10 71.60 0.13 30.55 2340.2 NMME 7 8 90.10 71.70 0.13 30.60 2370.8 NMME 7 9 90.20 71.70 0.13 30.62 2401.4 NMME 7 10 90.20 71.80 0.13 30.67 2432.1 NMME 7 11 90.30 71.90 0.13 30.75 2462.9 NMME 7 12 90.30 71.90 0.13 30.75 2493.6 NMME Peak egg laying by 4th gen females; max 7+ gens. 7 13 90.30 72.00 0.13 30.80 2524.4 NMME 7 14 90.40 72.00 0.13 30.83 2555.2 NMME 7 15 90.40 72.00 0.13 30.83 2586.1 NMME 7 16 90.40 72.10 0.13 30.88 2617.0 NMME 7 17 90.40 72.10 0.13 30.88 2647.8 NMME 7 18 90.40 72.10 0.13 30.88 2678.7 NMME 7 19 90.40 72.10 0.13 30.88 2709.6 NMME 7 20 90.40 72.10 0.13 30.88 2740.5 NMME Peak adult emerge 5th gen; max 8+ gens. 7 21 90.40 72.10 0.13 30.88 2771.3 NMME 7 22 90.40 72.10 0.14 30.88 2802.2 NMME 7 23 90.40 72.10 0.14 30.88 2833.1 NMME 7 24 90.40 72.00 0.14 30.83 2863.9 NMME 7 25 90.40 72.00 0.14 30.83 2894.7 NMME 7 26 90.40 72.00 0.14 30.83 2925.6 NMME 7 27 90.30 71.90 0.14 30.75 2956.3 NMME 7 28 90.30 71.90 0.14 30.75 2987.1 NMME Peak egg laying by 5th gen females; max 9+ gens. 7 29 90.30 71.80 0.14 30.70 3017.8 NMME 7 30 90.20 71.70 0.14 30.62 3048.4 NMME 7 31 90.20 71.70 0.14 30.62 3079.0 NMME 8 1 89.50 71.10 0.57 30.12 3109.1 Hx Hn 8 2 87.10 71.10 0.30 29.10 3138.2 Hx Hn 8 3 89.20 71.50 0.30 30.22 3168.4 Hx Hn 8 4 87.40 71.80 0.45 29.60 3198.0 Hx Hn 8 5 89.60 72.00 0.10 30.59 3228.6 Hx Hn 8 6 91.00 73.20 0.10 31.57 3260.2 Hx Hn 8 7 90.10 72.20 0.62 30.84 3291.1 Hx Hn 8 8 89.80 72.30 0.26 30.80 3321.9 Hx Hn 8 9 89.80 71.80 0.05 30.56 3352.4 Hx Hn 8 10 90.00 72.10 0.14 30.76 3383.2 Hx Hn 8 11 90.70 72.10 0.18 30.96 3414.1 Hx Hn 8 12 89.10 71.30 0.42 30.08 3444.2 Hx Hn 8 13 88.90 70.40 0.52 29.57 3473.8 Hx Hn 8 14 86.80 69.80 0.20 28.30 3502.1 Hx Hn 8 15 86.80 67.30 0.25 27.05 3529.1 Hx Hn 8 16 87.50 67.40 0.08 27.45 3556.6 Hx Hn 8 17 87.40 69.20 0.02 28.30 3584.9 Hx Hn 8 18 88.60 70.70 0.04 29.60 3614.5 Hx Hn 8 19 89.00 70.20 0.37 29.50 3644.0 Hx Hn 8 20 88.00 71.30 0.71 29.65 3673.6 Hx Hn 8 21 88.70 71.80 0.10 30.19 3703.8 Hx Hn 8 22 90.00 71.20 0.24 30.32 3734.1 Hx Hn 8 23 88.80 70.00 0.15 29.33 3763.5 Hx Hn 8 24 86.50 68.20 0.33 27.35 3790.8 Hx Hn 8 25 84.90 66.40 0.17 25.65 3816.5 Hx Hn 8 26 85.70 67.10 0.11 26.40 3842.9 Hx Hn 8 27 87.00 69.20 0.68 28.10 3871.0 Hx Hn 8 28 85.80 69.50 0.76 27.65 3898.6 Hx Hn 8 29 87.40 69.50 0.18 28.45 3927.1 Hx Hn 8 30 88.40 68.30 0.11 28.33 3955.4 Hx Hn 8 31 88.20 67.60 0.06 27.89 3983.3 Hx Hn 9 1 87.10 68.00 0.05 27.55 4010.8 Hx Hn 9 2 88.30 67.30 0.18 27.78 4038.6 Hx Hn 9 3 86.20 68.70 0.72 27.45 4066.1 Hx Hn 9 4 87.60 66.50 0.06 27.05 4093.1 Hx Hn 9 5 87.20 66.10 0.01 26.65 4119.8 Hx Hn 9 6 87.20 68.50 0.15 27.85 4147.6 Hx Hn 9 7 87.30 68.80 0.29 28.05 4175.7 Hx Hn 9 8 86.20 68.40 0.58 27.30 4203.0 Hx Hn 9 9 87.20 68.20 0.29 27.70 4230.7 Hx Hn 9 10 84.70 66.80 0.05 25.75 4256.4 Hx Hn 9 11 85.30 66.50 0.03 25.90 4282.3 Hx Hn 9 12 85.80 67.20 0.13 26.50 4308.8 Hx Hn 9 13 84.90 66.60 0.32 25.75 4334.6 Hx Hn 9 14 85.00 63.50 0.05 24.25 4358.8 Hx Hn 9 15 84.30 64.50 0.07 24.40 4383.2 Hx Hn Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 C2951 PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021