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invasive insect model of OSU OIPMC model analysis vers. 3.0 |
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Output from uspest.org/wea invasive insect degree-day/phenology model program: Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================ Model species/general links: spotted wing Drosophila [fruit] Type: invasive insect Model source/other links: OSU OIPMC model analysis vers. 3.0 Calculation method: single sine Lower threshold: 50 degrees Fahrenheit Upper threshold: 88 degrees Fahrenheit Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1 Ending date: 9 15 Model validation status: partly validated-has been compared to 2 years of field data in PNW Region of known use: potential for use in US ==============================EVENTS TABLE================================ 1. 261 DDs after Jan 1: 1st egg laying by ow females 2. 510 DDs after Jan 1: Peak (ca. 50%) egg laying by ow females; 1st adult emerge 1st gen 3. 565 DDs after Jan 1: 1st egg laying by 1st gen females 4. 755 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 1st gen 5. 995 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 1st gen females; max 2+ gens. 6. 1249 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 2nd gen; max 3+ gens. 7. 1489 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 2nd gen females; max 4+ gens. 8. 1743 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 3rd gen; max 5 gens. 9. 1983 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 3rd gen females; max 6+ gens. 10. 2237 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 4th gen; max 6+ gens. 11. 2477 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 4th gen females; max 7+ gens. 12. 2731 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 5th gen; max 8+ gens. 13. 2971 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 5th gen females; max 9+ gens. ==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================ Weather station: 2018 C1732 APRSWXNET Woonsocket Oak Grove RI Lat:41.9831 Long:-71.4794 Elev:223 mn day max min precip DD50 CUMDD50 event -- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- ------- 1 1 38.60 19.50 0.14 0.00 0.0 * START *NMME 1 2 38.50 19.20 0.14 0.00 0.0 NMME 1 3 38.30 19.00 0.14 0.00 0.0 NMME 1 4 38.20 18.70 0.14 0.00 0.0 NMME 1 5 38.10 18.50 0.14 0.00 0.0 NMME 1 6 38.00 18.30 0.14 0.00 0.0 NMME 1 7 37.80 18.10 0.14 0.00 0.0 NMME 1 8 37.80 18.00 0.14 0.00 0.0 NMME 1 9 37.70 17.80 0.14 0.00 0.0 NMME 1 10 37.60 17.70 0.14 0.00 0.0 NMME 1 11 37.50 17.60 0.13 0.00 0.0 NMME 1 12 37.50 17.50 0.13 0.00 0.0 NMME 1 13 37.40 17.40 0.13 0.00 0.0 NMME 1 14 37.40 17.30 0.13 0.00 0.0 NMME 1 15 37.40 17.20 0.13 0.00 0.0 NMME 1 16 37.40 17.20 0.13 0.00 0.0 NMME 1 17 37.40 17.20 0.13 0.00 0.0 NMME 1 18 37.40 17.20 0.13 0.00 0.0 NMME 1 19 37.40 17.20 0.13 0.00 0.0 NMME 1 20 37.40 17.20 0.13 0.00 0.0 NMME 1 21 37.50 17.20 0.13 0.00 0.0 NMME 1 22 37.50 17.30 0.13 0.00 0.0 NMME 1 23 37.60 17.40 0.13 0.00 0.0 NMME 1 24 37.60 17.40 0.13 0.00 0.0 NMME 1 25 37.70 17.50 0.12 0.00 0.0 NMME 1 26 37.80 17.70 0.12 0.00 0.0 NMME 1 27 37.90 17.80 0.12 0.00 0.0 NMME 1 28 38.00 17.90 0.12 0.00 0.0 NMME 1 29 38.10 18.10 0.12 0.00 0.0 NMME 1 30 38.30 18.30 0.12 0.00 0.0 NMME 1 31 38.40 18.50 0.12 0.00 0.0 NMME 2 1 38.20 18.40 0.12 0.00 0.0 NMME 2 2 38.40 18.60 0.12 0.00 0.0 NMME 2 3 38.50 18.80 0.12 0.00 0.0 NMME 2 4 38.70 19.00 0.12 0.00 0.0 NMME 2 5 38.90 19.20 0.12 0.00 0.0 NMME 2 6 39.00 19.40 0.12 0.00 0.0 NMME 2 7 39.20 19.60 0.12 0.00 0.0 NMME 2 8 39.40 19.80 0.12 0.00 0.0 NMME 2 9 39.60 20.10 0.12 0.00 0.0 NMME 2 10 39.80 20.30 0.12 0.00 0.0 NMME 2 11 39.90 20.50 0.13 0.00 0.0 NMME 2 12 40.10 20.70 0.13 0.00 0.0 NMME 2 13 40.30 20.90 0.13 0.00 0.0 NMME 2 14 40.50 21.10 0.13 0.00 0.0 NMME 2 15 40.70 21.30 0.13 0.00 0.0 NMME 2 16 40.90 21.60 0.13 0.00 0.0 NMME 2 17 41.10 21.80 0.13 0.00 0.0 NMME 2 18 41.30 22.00 0.13 0.00 0.0 NMME 2 19 41.60 22.20 0.13 0.00 0.0 NMME 2 20 41.80 22.40 0.13 0.00 0.0 NMME 2 21 42.00 22.60 0.13 0.00 0.0 NMME 2 22 42.20 22.80 0.14 0.00 0.0 NMME 2 23 42.40 23.10 0.14 0.00 0.0 NMME 2 24 42.70 23.30 0.14 0.00 0.0 NMME 2 25 42.90 23.50 0.14 0.00 0.0 NMME 2 26 43.10 23.70 0.14 0.00 0.0 NMME 2 27 43.40 23.90 0.14 0.00 0.0 NMME 2 28 43.60 24.10 0.14 0.00 0.0 NMME 3 1 43.40 23.90 0.14 0.00 0.0 NMME 3 2 43.70 24.10 0.14 0.00 0.0 NMME 3 3 43.90 24.30 0.14 0.00 0.0 NMME 3 4 44.20 24.60 0.15 0.00 0.0 NMME 3 5 44.40 24.80 0.15 0.00 0.0 NMME 3 6 44.70 25.00 0.15 0.00 0.0 NMME 3 7 45.00 25.30 0.15 0.00 0.0 NMME 3 8 45.30 25.50 0.15 0.00 0.0 NMME 3 9 45.60 25.80 0.15 0.00 0.0 NMME 3 10 45.80 26.10 0.16 0.00 0.0 NMME 3 11 46.10 26.30 0.16 0.00 0.0 NMME 3 12 46.40 26.60 0.16 0.00 0.0 NMME 3 13 46.80 26.90 0.16 0.00 0.0 NMME 3 14 47.10 27.10 0.16 0.00 0.0 NMME 3 15 47.40 27.40 0.16 0.00 0.0 NMME 3 16 47.70 27.70 0.16 0.00 0.0 NMME 3 17 48.00 28.00 0.16 0.00 0.0 NMME 3 18 48.40 28.30 0.16 0.00 0.0 NMME 3 19 48.70 28.60 0.17 0.00 0.0 NMME 3 20 49.00 28.90 0.17 0.00 0.0 NMME 3 21 49.40 29.20 0.17 0.00 0.0 NMME 3 22 49.70 29.50 0.17 0.00 0.0 NMME 3 23 50.10 29.90 0.17 0.00 0.0 NMME 3 24 50.40 30.20 0.17 0.02 0.0 NMME 3 25 50.80 30.50 0.17 0.07 0.1 NMME 3 26 51.20 30.90 0.17 0.12 0.2 NMME 3 27 51.50 31.20 0.17 0.17 0.4 NMME 3 28 51.90 31.50 0.17 0.25 0.6 NMME 3 29 52.30 31.90 0.17 0.33 1.0 NMME 3 30 52.70 32.20 0.17 0.42 1.4 NMME 3 31 53.10 32.60 0.17 0.52 1.9 NMME 4 1 53.80 33.30 0.16 0.71 2.6 NMME 4 2 54.20 33.70 0.16 0.82 3.4 NMME 4 3 54.60 34.00 0.16 0.94 4.4 NMME 4 4 55.00 34.40 0.16 1.07 5.5 NMME 4 5 55.40 34.70 0.16 1.20 6.7 NMME 4 6 55.80 35.10 0.16 1.34 8.0 NMME 4 7 56.20 35.40 0.15 1.48 9.5 NMME 4 8 56.60 35.80 0.15 1.63 11.1 NMME 4 9 57.00 36.10 0.15 1.78 12.9 NMME 4 10 57.30 36.50 0.15 1.91 14.8 NMME 4 11 57.70 36.80 0.15 2.07 16.9 NMME 4 12 58.10 37.10 0.15 2.23 19.1 NMME 4 13 58.50 37.50 0.15 2.40 21.5 NMME 4 14 58.90 37.80 0.15 2.57 24.1 NMME 4 15 59.20 38.10 0.15 2.71 26.8 NMME 4 16 59.60 38.50 0.15 2.90 29.7 NMME 4 17 60.00 38.80 0.15 3.08 32.8 NMME 4 18 60.40 39.10 0.14 3.27 36.1 NMME 4 19 60.70 39.40 0.14 3.41 39.5 NMME 4 20 61.10 39.70 0.14 3.61 43.1 NMME 4 21 61.50 40.00 0.14 3.81 46.9 NMME 4 22 61.80 40.40 0.14 3.97 50.9 NMME 4 23 62.20 40.70 0.14 4.18 55.0 NMME 4 24 62.60 41.00 0.13 4.39 59.4 NMME 4 25 62.90 41.30 0.13 4.55 64.0 NMME 4 26 63.30 41.60 0.13 4.77 68.7 NMME 4 27 63.70 41.90 0.13 4.98 73.7 NMME 4 28 64.00 42.20 0.13 5.16 78.9 NMME 4 29 64.40 42.50 0.12 5.38 84.3 NMME 4 30 64.70 42.80 0.12 5.57 89.8 NMME 5 1 64.80 42.80 0.14 5.61 95.4 NMME 5 2 65.20 43.10 0.14 5.84 101.3 NMME 5 3 65.50 43.40 0.14 6.03 107.3 NMME 5 4 65.90 43.70 0.13 6.27 113.6 NMME 5 5 66.20 44.00 0.13 6.46 120.1 NMME 5 6 66.60 44.30 0.13 6.71 126.8 NMME 5 7 66.90 44.60 0.13 6.91 133.7 NMME 5 8 67.20 44.90 0.13 7.11 140.8 NMME 5 9 67.60 45.20 0.13 7.36 148.1 NMME 5 10 67.90 45.50 0.12 7.57 155.7 NMME 5 11 68.20 45.80 0.12 7.79 163.5 NMME 5 12 68.60 46.10 0.12 8.05 171.6 NMME 5 13 68.90 46.40 0.12 8.27 179.8 NMME 5 14 69.20 46.70 0.12 8.49 188.3 NMME 5 15 69.60 47.00 0.12 8.77 197.1 NMME 5 16 69.90 47.40 0.12 9.03 206.1 NMME 5 17 70.20 47.70 0.12 9.27 215.4 NMME 5 18 70.50 48.00 0.12 9.51 224.9 NMME 5 19 70.80 48.30 0.12 9.75 234.6 NMME 5 20 71.10 48.60 0.12 10.00 244.6 NMME 5 21 71.50 49.00 0.12 10.34 255.0 NMME 5 22 71.80 49.30 0.12 10.60 265.6 NMME 1st egg laying by ow females 5 23 72.10 49.60 0.12 10.87 276.5 NMME 5 24 72.40 50.00 0.12 11.20 287.7 NMME 5 25 72.70 50.30 0.13 11.50 299.2 NMME 5 26 73.00 50.60 0.13 11.80 311.0 NMME 5 27 73.30 51.00 0.13 12.15 323.1 NMME 5 28 73.60 51.30 0.13 12.45 335.6 NMME 5 29 73.90 51.70 0.13 12.80 348.4 NMME 5 30 74.20 52.00 0.13 13.10 361.5 NMME 5 31 74.50 52.40 0.14 13.45 374.9 NMME 6 1 75.60 53.50 0.12 14.55 389.5 NMME 6 2 75.90 53.90 0.12 14.90 404.4 NMME 6 3 76.20 54.20 0.12 15.20 419.6 NMME 6 4 76.40 54.60 0.13 15.50 435.1 NMME 6 5 76.70 54.90 0.13 15.80 450.9 NMME 6 6 77.00 55.20 0.13 16.10 467.0 NMME 6 7 77.20 55.50 0.13 16.35 483.3 NMME 6 8 77.50 55.90 0.13 16.70 500.0 NMME 6 9 77.80 56.20 0.13 17.00 517.0 NMME Peak (ca. 50%) egg laying by ow females; 1st adult emerge 1st gen 6 10 78.00 56.50 0.13 17.25 534.3 NMME 6 11 78.30 56.80 0.14 17.55 551.8 NMME 6 12 78.50 57.10 0.14 17.80 569.6 NMME 1st egg laying by 1st gen females 6 13 78.80 57.30 0.14 18.05 587.7 NMME 6 14 79.00 57.60 0.14 18.30 606.0 NMME 6 15 79.30 57.90 0.14 18.60 624.6 NMME 6 16 79.50 58.20 0.14 18.85 643.4 NMME 6 17 79.70 58.50 0.14 19.10 662.5 NMME 6 18 80.00 58.70 0.14 19.35 681.9 NMME 6 19 80.20 59.00 0.14 19.60 701.5 NMME 6 20 80.40 59.20 0.14 19.80 721.3 NMME 6 21 80.60 59.50 0.14 20.05 741.3 NMME 6 22 80.90 59.70 0.14 20.30 761.6 NMME Peak adult emerge 1st gen 6 23 81.10 60.00 0.14 20.55 782.2 NMME 6 24 81.30 60.20 0.14 20.75 802.9 NMME 6 25 81.50 60.40 0.13 20.95 823.9 NMME 6 26 81.70 60.60 0.13 21.15 845.0 NMME 6 27 81.90 60.90 0.13 21.40 866.4 NMME 6 28 82.10 61.10 0.13 21.60 888.0 NMME 6 29 82.30 61.30 0.13 21.80 909.8 NMME 6 30 82.50 61.50 0.13 22.00 931.8 NMME 7 1 83.30 62.30 0.14 22.80 954.6 NMME 7 2 83.50 62.50 0.14 23.00 977.6 NMME 7 3 83.60 62.70 0.13 23.15 1000.8 NMME Peak egg laying by 1st gen females; max 2+ gens. 7 4 83.80 62.90 0.13 23.35 1024.1 NMME 7 5 83.90 63.00 0.13 23.45 1047.6 NMME 7 6 84.10 63.20 0.13 23.65 1071.2 NMME 7 7 84.20 63.30 0.13 23.75 1095.0 NMME 7 8 84.40 63.50 0.13 23.95 1118.9 NMME 7 9 84.50 63.60 0.13 24.05 1143.0 NMME 7 10 84.60 63.70 0.12 24.15 1167.1 NMME 7 11 84.70 63.80 0.12 24.25 1191.4 NMME 7 12 84.80 64.00 0.12 24.40 1215.8 NMME 7 13 84.90 64.10 0.12 24.50 1240.3 NMME 7 14 85.00 64.10 0.12 24.55 1264.8 NMME Peak adult emerge 2nd gen; max 3+ gens. 7 15 85.10 64.20 0.12 24.65 1289.5 NMME 7 16 85.10 64.30 0.12 24.70 1314.2 NMME 7 17 85.20 64.40 0.12 24.80 1339.0 NMME 7 18 85.30 64.40 0.12 24.85 1363.8 NMME 7 19 85.30 64.50 0.12 24.90 1388.7 NMME 7 20 85.40 64.50 0.12 24.95 1413.7 NMME 7 21 85.40 64.60 0.12 25.00 1438.7 NMME 7 22 85.40 64.60 0.12 25.00 1463.7 NMME 7 23 85.40 64.60 0.12 25.00 1488.7 NMME 7 24 85.40 64.60 0.12 25.00 1513.7 NMME Peak egg laying by 2nd gen females; max 4+ gens. 7 25 85.40 64.60 0.12 25.00 1538.7 NMME 7 26 85.40 64.60 0.12 25.00 1563.7 NMME 7 27 85.40 64.60 0.12 25.00 1588.7 NMME 7 28 85.40 64.60 0.12 25.00 1613.7 NMME 7 29 85.40 64.50 0.12 24.95 1638.6 NMME 7 30 85.30 64.50 0.12 24.90 1663.5 NMME 7 31 85.30 64.50 0.12 24.90 1688.4 NMME 8 1 82.00 61.70 0.10 21.85 1710.3 Hx Hn 8 2 84.10 62.70 0.05 23.40 1733.7 Hx Hn 8 3 81.80 63.20 0.07 22.50 1756.2 Hx Hn Peak adult emerge 3rd gen; max 5 gens. 8 4 83.90 63.40 0.02 23.65 1779.8 Hx Hn 8 5 85.30 62.90 0.01 24.10 1803.9 Hx Hn 8 6 83.70 62.50 0.12 23.10 1827.0 Hx Hn 8 7 80.60 59.50 0.14 20.05 1847.1 Hx Hn 8 8 81.00 60.40 0.18 20.70 1867.8 Hx Hn 8 9 82.90 61.10 0.05 22.00 1889.8 Hx Hn 8 10 81.80 63.00 0.35 22.40 1912.2 Hx Hn 8 11 82.00 62.90 0.22 22.45 1934.6 Hx Hn 8 12 82.20 63.00 0.13 22.60 1957.2 Hx Hn 8 13 81.80 62.70 0.10 22.25 1979.5 Hx Hn 8 14 79.20 58.90 0.30 19.05 1998.5 Hx Hn Peak egg laying by 3rd gen females; max 6+ gens. 8 15 80.70 59.50 0.13 20.10 2018.6 Hx Hn 8 16 80.80 61.20 0.47 21.00 2039.6 Hx Hn 8 17 82.00 63.10 0.07 22.55 2062.2 Hx Hn 8 18 84.40 61.10 0.05 22.75 2084.9 Hx Hn 8 19 82.30 59.90 0.03 21.10 2106.0 Hx Hn 8 20 82.70 60.20 0.01 21.45 2127.5 Hx Hn 8 21 81.60 59.90 0.03 20.75 2148.2 Hx Hn 8 22 82.10 62.10 0.21 22.10 2170.3 Hx Hn 8 23 78.20 60.70 0.17 19.45 2189.8 Hx Hn 8 24 78.00 59.70 0.07 18.85 2208.6 Hx Hn 8 25 80.60 62.00 0.06 21.30 2229.9 Hx Hn 8 26 83.40 62.80 0.03 23.10 2253.0 Hx Hn Peak adult emerge 4th gen; max 6+ gens. 8 27 83.40 58.40 0.04 20.90 2273.9 Hx Hn 8 28 81.40 59.10 0.16 20.25 2294.2 Hx Hn 8 29 80.90 57.30 0.34 19.10 2313.3 Hx Hn 8 30 78.50 56.50 0.12 17.50 2330.8 Hx Hn 8 31 81.90 59.60 0.00 20.75 2351.5 Hx Hn 9 1 83.10 61.80 0.03 22.45 2374.0 Hx Hn 9 2 81.50 58.90 0.17 20.20 2394.2 Hx Hn 9 3 82.40 59.30 0.08 20.85 2415.0 Hx Hn 9 4 80.90 58.90 0.08 19.90 2434.9 Hx Hn 9 5 80.00 57.80 0.07 18.90 2453.8 Hx Hn 9 6 80.10 56.90 0.16 18.50 2472.3 Hx Hn 9 7 76.20 58.10 0.38 17.15 2489.5 Hx Hn Peak egg laying by 4th gen females; max 7+ gens. 9 8 79.90 60.70 0.10 20.30 2509.8 Hx Hn 9 9 80.50 58.70 0.21 19.60 2529.4 Hx Hn 9 10 76.50 56.90 0.04 16.70 2546.1 Hx Hn 9 11 73.60 56.00 0.07 14.80 2560.9 Hx Hn 9 12 75.10 54.00 0.29 14.55 2575.4 Hx Hn 9 13 74.40 56.00 0.13 15.20 2590.6 Hx Hn 9 14 75.70 55.50 0.06 15.60 2606.2 Hx Hn 9 15 75.90 54.50 0.08 15.20 2621.4 Hx Hn Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 C1732 PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021