   |
|
invasive insect model of OSU OIPMC model analysis vers. 3.0 |
|
Output from uspest.org/wea invasive insect degree-day/phenology model program: Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================ Model species/general links: spotted wing Drosophila [fruit] Type: invasive insect Model source/other links: OSU OIPMC model analysis vers. 3.0 Calculation method: single sine Lower threshold: 50 degrees Fahrenheit Upper threshold: 88 degrees Fahrenheit Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1 Ending date: 9 15 Model validation status: partly validated-has been compared to 2 years of field data in PNW Region of known use: potential for use in US ==============================EVENTS TABLE================================ 1. 261 DDs after Jan 1: 1st egg laying by ow females 2. 510 DDs after Jan 1: Peak (ca. 50%) egg laying by ow females; 1st adult emerge 1st gen 3. 565 DDs after Jan 1: 1st egg laying by 1st gen females 4. 755 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 1st gen 5. 995 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 1st gen females; max 2+ gens. 6. 1249 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 2nd gen; max 3+ gens. 7. 1489 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 2nd gen females; max 4+ gens. 8. 1743 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 3rd gen; max 5 gens. 9. 1983 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 3rd gen females; max 6+ gens. 10. 2237 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 4th gen; max 6+ gens. 11. 2477 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 4th gen females; max 7+ gens. 12. 2731 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 5th gen; max 8+ gens. 13. 2971 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 5th gen females; max 9+ gens. ==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================ Weather station: 2018 AT475 APRSWXNET Vineland N2IVN NJ Lat39.5022 Long:-75.0122 Elev:103 mn day max min precip DD50 CUMDD50 event -- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- ------- 1 1 20.90 4.10 0.00 0.00 0.0 * START *Px Pn 1 2 33.00 9.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 3 39.00 7.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 4 28.00 22.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 5 17.10 22.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 *Warning: using yesterdays min*Px 1 6 15.80 3.90 0.51 0.00 0.0 Px Pn 1 7 18.90 2.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 Px 1 8 34.90 17.00 0.02 0.00 0.0 Px 1 9 44.90 31.00 0.02 0.00 0.0 Px 1 10 46.80 20.80 0.00 0.00 0.0 Px Pn 1 11 61.40 36.70 0.00 3.47 3.5 Px Pn 1 12 62.90 56.70 0.00 9.80 13.3 Px Pn 1 13 59.10 16.30 0.00 1.82 15.1 Px Pn 1 14 26.20 12.60 0.00 0.00 15.1 Px Pn 1 15 34.20 15.00 0.00 0.00 15.1 Px Pn 1 16 46.90 27.60 0.00 0.00 15.1 Px Pn 1 17 36.90 18.20 0.00 0.00 15.1 Px Pn 1 18 35.10 15.90 0.00 0.00 15.1 Px Pn 1 19 45.80 16.00 0.00 0.00 15.1 Px Pn 1 20 55.10 26.10 0.00 0.92 16.0 Px Pn 1 21 53.90 28.00 0.00 0.65 16.7 Px 1 22 65.20 41.20 0.00 5.56 22.2 Px Pn 1 23 61.30 39.60 0.00 3.68 25.9 Px Pn 1 24 45.40 32.20 0.00 0.00 25.9 Px Pn 1 25 36.80 18.90 0.02 0.00 25.9 Px Pn 1 26 51.00 19.00 0.00 0.08 26.0 1 27 62.00 29.00 0.35 3.20 29.2 1 28 54.00 46.00 0.16 1.27 30.5 1 29 46.00 38.00 0.10 0.00 30.5 1 30 37.00 22.00 0.04 0.00 30.5 1 31 40.00 13.00 0.00 0.00 30.5 2 1 51.00 30.00 0.24 0.09 30.5 2 2 46.00 19.00 0.24 0.00 30.5 2 3 29.70 10.90 0.00 0.00 30.5 Px Pn 2 4 48.00 27.00 0.73 0.00 30.5 2 5 41.00 22.00 0.02 0.00 30.5 2 6 45.00 20.00 0.08 0.00 30.5 2 7 53.00 23.00 0.50 0.41 31.0 2 8 43.00 22.00 0.75 0.00 31.0 2 9 44.00 18.00 0.00 0.00 31.0 2 10 59.00 33.00 0.83 2.34 33.3 2 11 61.00 50.00 0.18 5.50 38.8 2 12 60.00 32.00 0.02 2.64 41.4 2 13 49.00 25.00 0.00 0.00 41.4 2 14 59.00 33.00 0.00 2.34 43.8 2 15 63.00 45.00 0.08 5.15 48.9 2 16 63.00 40.00 0.04 4.44 53.4 2 17 47.00 28.00 0.79 0.00 53.4 2 18 53.00 29.00 0.20 0.46 53.8 2 19 54.00 28.00 0.00 0.68 54.5 2 20 77.00 55.00 0.00 16.00 70.5 2 21 78.00 58.00 0.00 18.00 88.5 2 22 64.00 38.00 0.71 4.65 93.1 2 23 45.00 37.00 0.02 0.00 93.1 2 24 54.00 44.00 0.42 1.12 94.3 2 25 54.00 44.00 0.02 1.12 95.4 2 26 56.00 34.00 0.00 1.37 96.8 2 27 64.00 28.00 0.37 3.87 100.6 2 28 61.30 38.00 0.37 3.53 104.2 Px 3 1 57.90 40.50 0.65 2.38 106.5 Px Pn 3 2 45.00 31.00 0.55 0.00 106.5 3 3 50.00 32.00 1.16 0.00 106.5 3 4 51.00 31.00 0.00 0.10 106.6 3 5 50.00 28.00 0.00 0.00 106.6 3 6 61.00 24.00 0.75 2.63 109.3 3 7 38.00 31.00 0.28 0.00 109.3 3 8 49.00 28.00 0.12 0.00 109.3 3 9 48.00 28.00 0.00 0.00 109.3 3 10 53.00 26.00 0.00 0.43 109.7 3 11 56.00 21.00 0.00 1.07 110.8 3 12 45.00 26.00 0.12 0.00 110.8 3 13 48.00 29.00 0.04 0.00 110.8 3 14 48.00 27.00 0.00 0.00 110.8 3 15 55.00 29.00 0.00 0.95 111.7 3 16 52.00 28.00 0.00 0.25 112.0 3 17 53.00 24.00 0.00 0.41 112.4 3 18 57.00 22.00 0.04 1.36 113.7 3 19 62.00 29.00 0.00 3.20 116.9 3 20 32.00 30.60 0.51 0.00 116.9 Pn 3 21 32.00 30.00 0.08 0.00 116.9 3 22 51.00 31.00 0.18 0.10 117.0 3 23 58.00 29.00 1.31 1.84 118.9 3 24 57.00 27.00 1.33 1.47 120.3 3 25 47.00 29.00 0.32 0.00 120.3 3 26 51.00 27.00 0.00 0.09 120.4 3 27 54.00 24.00 0.00 0.63 121.1 3 28 59.00 38.00 0.02 2.63 123.7 3 29 78.00 45.00 0.04 12.34 136.0 3 30 76.00 42.00 0.12 10.69 146.7 3 31 63.00 32.00 0.00 3.75 150.5 4 1 72.00 41.00 0.08 8.62 159.1 4 2 49.00 34.00 0.02 0.00 159.1 4 3 48.00 32.00 0.02 0.00 159.1 4 4 74.00 39.00 0.02 9.21 168.3 4 5 54.00 32.00 0.00 0.74 169.0 4 6 63.60 34.20 0.00 4.14 173.2 Px Pn 4 7 59.00 39.00 0.00 2.70 175.9 4 8 54.00 30.00 0.00 0.71 176.6 4 9 55.00 28.00 0.00 0.93 177.5 4 10 60.00 35.00 0.00 2.81 180.3 4 11 63.00 26.00 0.00 3.40 183.7 4 12 76.00 42.00 0.00 10.69 194.4 4 13 87.00 57.00 0.00 22.00 216.4 4 14 87.00 55.00 0.00 21.00 237.4 4 15 50.00 40.00 1.39 0.00 237.4 4 16 69.00 42.00 0.90 7.41 244.8 4 17 60.00 38.00 0.00 3.02 247.8 4 18 63.00 32.00 0.00 3.75 251.6 4 19 64.00 37.00 0.00 4.55 256.1 4 20 55.50 34.00 0.00 1.21 257.3 Px 4 21 68.00 29.00 0.00 5.48 262.8 1st egg laying by ow females 4 22 75.00 33.00 0.00 8.81 271.6 4 23 74.00 33.00 0.00 8.37 280.0 4 24 67.00 37.00 0.26 5.82 285.8 4 25 78.00 53.00 0.12 15.50 301.3 4 26 74.00 49.00 0.30 11.58 312.9 4 27 71.00 49.00 0.30 10.09 323.0 4 28 78.00 45.00 0.22 12.34 335.3 4 29 55.70 43.20 0.20 1.72 337.0 Px Pn 4 30 70.00 39.00 0.00 7.39 344.4 5 1 84.00 37.00 0.00 13.49 357.9 5 2 94.00 50.00 0.00 21.05 379.0 5 3 96.00 65.00 0.00 28.73 407.7 5 4 92.00 69.00 0.00 29.78 437.5 5 5 80.00 60.00 0.00 20.00 457.5 5 6 72.00 57.00 0.00 14.50 472.0 5 7 78.00 55.00 0.00 16.50 488.5 5 8 78.00 52.00 0.00 15.00 503.5 5 9 81.00 46.00 0.00 14.08 517.6 Peak (ca. 50%) egg laying by ow females; 1st adult emerge 1st gen 5 10 81.00 48.00 0.18 14.71 532.3 5 11 85.00 58.00 0.12 21.50 553.8 5 12 88.00 53.00 1.08 20.50 574.3 1st egg laying by 1st gen females 5 13 60.00 53.00 2.05 6.50 580.8 5 14 77.00 53.00 1.81 15.00 595.8 5 15 90.00 59.00 1.08 24.28 620.1 5 16 69.00 61.00 0.22 15.00 635.1 5 17 66.00 58.00 0.26 12.00 647.1 5 18 65.00 50.00 0.00 7.50 654.6 5 19 70.00 49.00 0.00 9.59 664.1 5 20 89.00 67.00 5.86 27.91 692.1 5 21 86.00 57.00 0.00 21.50 713.6 5 22 74.00 54.00 0.00 14.00 727.6 5 23 87.00 62.00 0.00 24.50 752.1 5 24 90.00 58.00 0.00 23.79 775.8 Peak adult emerge 1st gen 5 25 89.00 59.00 0.00 23.92 799.8 5 26 96.00 69.00 0.00 30.59 830.4 5 27 82.00 56.00 0.00 19.00 849.4 5 28 77.00 54.00 0.00 15.50 864.9 5 29 77.50 60.80 0.00 19.15 884.0 Px Pn 5 30 76.80 62.30 0.00 19.55 903.6 Px Pn 5 31 81.60 63.20 0.00 22.40 926.0 Px Pn 6 1 91.00 68.00 0.00 29.03 955.0 6 2 90.00 69.00 0.00 29.24 984.2 6 3 70.00 52.00 0.04 11.00 995.2 Peak egg laying by 1st gen females; max 2+ gens. 6 4 78.00 53.00 0.00 15.50 1010.7 6 5 84.00 52.00 0.02 18.00 1028.7 6 6 76.00 56.00 0.02 16.00 1044.7 6 7 80.00 57.00 0.00 18.50 1063.2 6 8 86.00 56.00 0.00 21.00 1084.2 6 9 86.00 64.00 0.04 25.00 1109.2 6 10 79.00 58.00 0.00 18.50 1127.7 6 11 72.00 52.00 0.00 12.00 1139.7 6 12 74.50 47.00 0.00 11.17 1150.9 Px 6 13 80.20 61.70 0.00 20.95 1171.8 Px Pn 6 14 90.00 69.00 0.00 29.24 1201.1 6 15 84.00 56.00 0.00 20.00 1221.1 6 16 91.00 54.00 0.00 22.13 1243.2 6 17 95.00 60.00 0.00 26.14 1269.4 Peak adult emerge 2nd gen; max 3+ gens. 6 18 95.00 68.00 0.00 29.94 1299.3 6 19 92.00 70.00 0.00 30.26 1329.6 6 20 88.00 64.00 0.00 26.00 1355.6 6 21 82.00 68.00 0.00 25.00 1380.6 6 22 71.30 63.00 0.00 17.15 1397.7 Px 6 23 81.00 64.00 0.00 22.50 1420.2 6 24 93.00 67.00 0.00 29.05 1449.3 6 25 84.00 63.00 0.00 23.50 1472.8 6 26 82.00 57.00 0.00 19.50 1492.3 Peak egg laying by 2nd gen females; max 4+ gens. 6 27 117.90 60.70 0.00 29.54 1521.8 Px Pn 6 28 85.40 66.30 0.00 25.85 1547.7 Px Pn 6 29 98.00 69.00 0.00 30.91 1578.6 6 30 101.00 66.00 0.00 29.99 1608.6 7 1 95.00 71.00 0.00 31.34 1639.9 7 2 101.00 69.00 0.00 31.32 1671.2 7 3 99.00 75.00 0.00 33.67 1704.9 7 4 95.00 72.00 0.00 31.81 1736.7 7 5 94.00 73.00 0.00 32.10 1768.8 Peak adult emerge 3rd gen; max 5 gens. 7 6 88.00 73.00 0.00 30.50 1799.3 7 7 81.00 58.00 0.00 19.50 1818.8 7 8 87.00 52.00 0.00 19.50 1838.3 7 9 91.00 53.00 0.00 21.64 1859.9 7 10 93.80 69.50 0.00 30.42 1890.3 Px Pn 7 11 97.00 73.00 0.00 32.56 1922.9 7 12 84.60 66.50 0.00 25.55 1948.5 Px Pn 7 13 85.80 59.90 0.00 22.85 1971.3 Px Pn 7 14 88.30 57.30 0.00 22.79 1994.1 Px Pn Peak egg laying by 3rd gen females; max 6+ gens. 7 15 85.30 69.10 0.00 27.20 2021.3 Px Pn 7 16 94.10 67.50 0.00 29.53 2050.8 Px Pn 7 17 93.80 71.60 0.00 31.41 2082.2 Px Pn 7 18 85.30 63.10 0.00 24.20 2106.4 Px Pn 7 19 86.40 60.00 0.00 23.20 2129.6 Px Pn 7 20 83.30 58.60 0.00 20.95 2150.6 Px Pn 7 21 74.60 64.50 0.00 19.55 2170.1 Px Pn 7 22 84.90 69.00 0.00 26.95 2197.1 Px Pn 7 23 84.30 75.80 0.00 30.05 2227.1 Px Pn 7 24 84.80 72.80 0.00 28.80 2255.9 Px Pn Peak adult emerge 4th gen; max 6+ gens. 7 25 85.00 71.00 0.00 28.00 2283.9 7 26 92.00 71.00 0.00 30.74 2314.7 7 27 94.00 68.00 0.00 29.75 2344.4 7 28 93.00 68.00 0.00 29.53 2373.9 7 29 90.00 65.00 0.00 27.26 2401.2 7 30 79.00 64.00 0.00 21.50 2422.7 7 31 83.00 66.00 0.00 24.50 2447.2 8 1 90.00 73.00 0.00 31.21 2478.4 Peak egg laying by 4th gen females; max 7+ gens. 8 2 93.00 75.00 0.00 32.85 2511.3 8 3 88.00 73.00 0.00 30.50 2541.8 8 4 91.00 73.00 0.00 31.47 2573.2 8 5 99.00 71.00 0.00 31.94 2605.2 8 6 100.00 74.00 0.00 33.35 2638.5 8 7 96.00 74.00 0.00 32.87 2671.4 8 8 97.00 70.00 0.00 31.21 2702.6 8 9 94.00 71.00 0.00 31.16 2733.8 Peak adult emerge 5th gen; max 8+ gens. 8 10 89.60 66.30 0.00 27.77 2761.5 Px Pn 8 11 85.50 71.30 0.00 28.40 2789.9 Px Pn 8 12 86.20 69.90 0.00 28.05 2818.0 Px Pn 8 13 84.50 67.40 0.00 25.95 2843.9 Px Pn 8 14 82.40 66.00 0.00 24.20 2868.1 Px Pn 8 15 95.00 70.00 0.00 30.88 2899.0 8 16 96.00 71.00 0.00 31.51 2930.5 8 17 96.00 73.00 0.00 32.42 2962.9 8 18 92.00 73.00 0.00 31.70 2994.6 Peak egg laying by 5th gen females; max 9+ gens. 8 19 77.00 67.00 0.00 22.00 3016.6 8 20 81.00 66.00 0.00 23.50 3040.1 8 21 84.00 66.00 0.00 25.00 3065.1 8 22 90.00 69.00 0.00 29.24 3094.4 8 23 84.00 62.00 0.00 23.00 3117.4 8 24 90.00 57.00 0.00 23.29 3140.7 8 25 84.00 58.00 0.00 21.00 3161.7 8 26 89.00 62.00 0.00 25.42 3187.1 8 27 97.00 72.00 0.00 32.11 3219.2 8 28 98.00 76.00 0.00 33.98 3253.2 8 29 100.00 77.00 0.00 34.59 3287.8 8 30 97.00 76.00 0.00 33.87 3321.6 8 31 77.00 71.00 0.00 24.00 3345.6 9 1 80.00 70.00 0.00 25.00 3370.6 9 2 87.00 68.00 0.00 27.50 3398.1 9 3 97.00 71.00 0.00 31.66 3429.8 9 4 101.00 74.00 0.00 33.45 3463.3 9 5 99.00 72.00 0.00 32.38 3495.6 9 6 100.00 77.00 0.00 34.59 3530.2 9 7 89.00 71.00 0.00 29.90 3560.1 9 8 71.00 63.00 0.00 17.00 3577.1 9 9 63.00 58.00 0.00 10.50 3587.6 9 10 72.00 58.00 0.00 15.00 3602.6 9 11 84.00 65.00 0.00 24.50 3627.1 9 12 84.00 73.00 0.00 28.50 3655.6 9 13 78.00 70.00 0.00 24.00 3679.6 9 14 77.00 67.00 0.00 22.00 3701.6 9 15 83.00 64.00 0.00 23.50 3725.1 Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 AT475 PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021