Online Phenology Models and Degree-day Calculator
immaturedamageadult
spotted wing Drosophila [fruit]
invasive insect model of OSU OIPMC model analysis vers. 3.0


Output from uspest.org/wea invasive insect degree-day/phenology model program:
	Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================ Model species/general links: spotted wing Drosophila [fruit] Type: invasive insect Model source/other links: OSU OIPMC model analysis vers. 3.0 Calculation method: single sine Lower threshold: 50 degrees Fahrenheit Upper threshold: 88 degrees Fahrenheit Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1 Ending date: 9 15 Model validation status: partly validated-has been compared to 2 years of field data in PNW Region of known use: potential for use in US ==============================EVENTS TABLE================================ 1. 261 DDs after Jan 1: 1st egg laying by ow females 2. 510 DDs after Jan 1: Peak (ca. 50%) egg laying by ow females; 1st adult emerge 1st gen 3. 565 DDs after Jan 1: 1st egg laying by 1st gen females 4. 755 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 1st gen 5. 995 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 1st gen females; max 2+ gens. 6. 1249 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 2nd gen; max 3+ gens. 7. 1489 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 2nd gen females; max 4+ gens. 8. 1743 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 3rd gen; max 5 gens. 9. 1983 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 3rd gen females; max 6+ gens. 10. 2237 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 4th gen; max 6+ gens. 11. 2477 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 4th gen females; max 7+ gens. 12. 2731 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 5th gen; max 8+ gens. 13. 2971 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 5th gen females; max 9+ gens. ==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================ Weather station: 2018 AS284 APRSWXNET West Hartford N1PSJ CT Lat:41.7564 Long:-72.7483 Elev:140 mn day max min precip DD50 CUMDD50 event -- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- ------- 1 1 14.00 -3.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 * START * 1 2 23.00 2.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 3 27.00 9.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 4 27.00 12.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 5 21.00 6.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 6 13.00 6.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 *Warning: using yesterdays min* 1 7 18.00 -9.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 8 31.00 16.00 0.01 0.00 0.0 1 9 40.00 28.00 0.02 0.00 0.0 1 10 37.00 15.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 11 48.00 28.00 0.11 0.00 0.0 1 12 60.00 39.00 1.63 3.10 3.1 1 13 59.00 16.00 0.47 1.79 4.9 1 14 25.00 12.00 0.00 0.00 4.9 1 15 22.00 11.00 0.00 0.00 4.9 1 16 32.00 18.00 0.00 0.00 4.9 1 17 33.00 21.00 0.09 0.00 4.9 1 18 30.00 11.00 0.01 0.00 4.9 1 19 36.00 18.00 0.05 0.00 4.9 1 20 49.00 26.00 0.01 0.00 4.9 1 21 49.00 27.00 0.01 0.00 4.9 1 22 39.00 35.00 0.45 0.00 4.9 1 23 45.00 34.00 0.23 0.00 4.9 1 24 41.00 22.00 0.00 0.00 4.9 1 25 30.00 18.00 0.00 0.00 4.9 1 26 37.00 15.00 0.00 0.00 4.9 1 27 52.00 23.00 0.08 0.22 5.1 1 28 50.00 35.00 0.08 0.00 5.1 1 29 43.00 32.00 0.00 0.00 5.1 1 30 36.00 21.00 0.07 0.00 5.1 1 31 32.00 16.00 0.01 0.00 5.1 2 1 44.00 28.00 0.41 0.00 5.1 2 2 35.00 13.00 0.32 0.00 5.1 2 3 29.00 10.00 0.00 0.00 5.1 2 4 43.00 25.00 0.79 0.00 5.1 2 5 41.00 20.00 0.35 0.00 5.1 2 6 35.00 17.00 0.00 0.00 5.1 2 7 32.00 20.00 0.08 0.00 5.1 2 8 29.00 20.00 0.00 0.00 5.1 2 9 31.00 14.00 0.02 0.00 5.1 2 10 46.00 28.00 0.64 0.00 5.1 2 11 43.00 40.00 0.54 0.00 5.1 2 12 44.00 28.00 0.00 0.00 5.1 2 13 35.00 22.00 0.00 0.00 5.1 2 14 51.00 26.00 0.02 0.09 5.2 2 15 50.00 33.00 0.04 0.00 5.2 2 16 54.00 37.00 0.02 0.84 6.0 2 17 40.00 27.00 0.16 0.00 6.0 2 18 41.00 26.00 0.36 0.00 6.0 2 19 47.00 20.00 0.13 0.00 6.0 2 20 66.00 45.00 0.00 6.56 12.6 2 21 73.00 50.00 0.00 11.50 24.1 2 22 55.00 32.00 0.08 1.01 25.1 2 23 37.00 30.00 0.35 0.00 25.1 2 24 53.00 37.00 0.85 0.56 25.7 2 25 40.00 37.00 0.24 0.00 25.7 2 26 52.00 37.00 0.00 0.31 26.0 2 27 55.00 31.00 0.00 0.99 27.0 2 28 56.00 34.00 0.00 1.37 28.3 3 1 61.00 37.00 0.92 3.33 31.7 3 2 46.00 36.00 0.53 0.00 31.7 3 3 48.00 39.00 0.00 0.00 31.7 3 4 43.00 32.00 0.00 0.00 31.7 3 5 45.00 32.00 0.00 0.00 31.7 3 6 46.00 26.00 0.03 0.00 31.7 3 7 37.00 31.00 0.24 0.00 31.7 3 8 40.00 32.00 0.50 0.00 31.7 3 9 40.00 25.00 0.01 0.00 31.7 3 10 40.00 27.00 0.00 0.00 31.7 3 11 44.00 29.00 0.00 0.00 31.7 3 12 45.00 24.00 0.00 0.00 31.7 3 13 37.00 31.00 0.21 0.00 31.7 3 14 41.00 29.00 0.06 0.00 31.7 3 15 45.00 31.00 0.02 0.00 31.7 3 16 37.00 28.00 0.00 0.00 31.7 3 17 46.00 26.00 0.00 0.00 31.7 3 18 36.00 19.00 0.00 0.00 31.7 3 19 40.00 26.00 0.00 0.00 31.7 3 20 40.00 22.00 0.00 0.00 31.7 3 21 39.00 32.00 0.02 0.00 31.7 3 22 52.00 33.00 0.02 0.28 32.0 3 23 50.00 34.00 0.00 0.00 32.0 3 24 49.00 30.00 0.00 0.00 32.0 3 25 45.00 29.00 0.00 0.00 32.0 3 26 49.00 24.00 0.00 0.00 32.0 3 27 49.00 23.00 0.02 0.00 32.0 3 28 58.00 38.00 0.02 2.25 34.2 3 29 54.00 40.00 0.05 0.94 35.1 3 30 58.00 43.00 0.02 2.64 37.8 3 31 59.00 35.00 0.00 2.44 40.2 4 1 57.00 36.00 0.04 1.78 42.0 4 2 43.00 30.00 0.30 0.00 42.0 4 3 41.00 28.00 0.54 0.00 42.0 4 4 56.00 37.00 0.09 1.48 43.5 4 5 43.00 28.00 0.02 0.00 43.5 4 6 43.00 22.00 0.22 0.00 43.5 4 7 46.00 33.00 0.01 0.00 43.5 4 8 45.00 28.00 0.00 0.00 43.5 4 9 48.00 26.00 0.11 0.00 43.5 4 10 44.00 31.00 0.03 0.00 43.5 4 11 53.00 25.00 0.01 0.42 43.9 4 12 57.00 31.00 0.02 1.59 45.5 4 13 73.00 45.00 0.00 9.91 55.4 4 14 75.00 41.00 0.00 10.02 65.4 4 15 41.00 32.00 1.66 0.00 65.4 4 16 45.00 32.00 2.19 0.00 65.4 4 17 49.00 35.00 0.03 0.00 65.4 4 18 53.00 31.00 0.16 0.48 65.9 4 19 45.00 35.00 0.02 0.00 65.9 4 20 51.00 33.00 0.00 0.10 66.0 4 21 60.00 36.00 0.00 2.87 68.9 4 22 65.00 35.00 0.00 4.77 73.7 4 23 68.00 32.00 0.00 5.73 79.4 4 24 66.00 35.00 0.32 5.19 84.6 4 25 58.00 48.00 1.61 3.39 88.0 4 26 67.00 50.00 0.20 8.50 96.5 4 27 57.00 44.00 0.26 2.33 98.8 4 28 70.00 47.00 0.15 8.97 107.7 4 29 56.00 42.00 0.02 1.75 109.5 4 30 51.00 42.00 0.01 0.14 109.6 5 1 76.00 44.00 0.00 11.12 120.8 5 2 90.00 54.00 0.00 21.80 142.6 5 3 92.00 59.00 0.06 24.90 167.5 5 4 83.00 69.00 0.00 26.00 193.5 5 5 77.00 57.00 0.08 17.00 210.5 5 6 62.00 56.00 0.06 9.00 219.5 5 7 75.00 50.00 0.00 12.50 232.0 5 8 75.00 48.00 0.00 11.73 243.7 5 9 80.00 47.00 0.00 13.89 257.6 5 10 68.00 55.00 0.01 11.50 269.1 1st egg laying by ow females 5 11 71.00 52.00 0.05 11.50 280.6 5 12 53.00 47.00 0.07 0.95 281.5 5 13 55.00 45.00 0.00 1.59 283.1 5 14 72.00 50.00 0.00 11.00 294.1 5 15 82.00 58.00 0.72 20.00 314.1 5 16 68.00 55.00 0.17 11.50 325.6 5 17 77.00 57.00 0.11 17.00 342.6 5 18 68.00 53.00 0.16 10.50 353.1 5 19 57.00 46.00 0.38 2.57 355.7 5 20 82.00 55.00 0.07 18.50 374.2 5 21 81.00 53.00 0.00 17.00 391.2 5 22 66.00 50.90 0.13 8.45 399.6 Pn 5 23 85.00 55.00 0.00 20.00 419.6 5 24 83.00 57.00 0.00 20.00 439.6 5 25 89.00 53.00 0.00 20.93 460.6 5 26 91.00 66.00 0.00 28.05 488.6 5 27 74.00 50.00 0.08 12.00 500.6 5 28 69.00 50.00 0.03 9.50 510.1 Peak (ca. 50%) egg laying by ow females; 1st adult emerge 1st gen 5 29 90.00 60.00 0.00 24.78 534.9 5 30 83.00 60.00 0.00 21.50 556.4 5 31 78.00 52.00 0.06 15.00 571.4 1st egg laying by 1st gen females 6 1 80.00 65.00 0.01 22.50 593.9 6 2 89.00 69.00 0.74 28.90 622.8 6 3 73.00 54.00 0.47 13.50 636.3 6 4 59.00 48.00 0.47 3.87 640.2 6 5 72.00 50.00 0.01 11.00 651.2 6 6 70.00 48.00 0.00 9.26 660.4 6 7 70.00 51.00 0.00 10.50 670.9 6 8 85.00 55.00 0.00 20.00 690.9 6 9 80.00 61.00 0.00 20.50 711.4 6 10 72.00 61.00 0.00 16.50 727.9 6 11 75.00 55.00 0.00 15.00 742.9 6 12 92.30 46.20 0.00 19.15 762.1 Px Pn Peak adult emerge 1st gen 6 13 91.80 67.70 0.00 29.10 791.2 Px Pn 6 14 82.00 64.00 0.01 23.00 814.2 6 15 71.00 55.00 0.01 13.00 827.2 6 16 86.00 51.00 0.00 18.50 845.7 6 17 92.00 56.00 0.00 23.43 869.1 6 18 92.00 65.00 0.17 27.84 897.0 6 19 86.00 67.00 0.01 26.50 923.5 6 20 83.30 61.40 0.00 22.35 945.8 Px Pn 6 21 87.00 67.00 0.00 27.00 972.8 6 22 79.00 59.00 0.01 19.00 991.8 6 23 65.00 58.00 0.01 11.50 1003.3 Peak egg laying by 1st gen females; max 2+ gens. 6 24 79.00 59.00 0.88 19.00 1022.3 6 25 77.00 60.00 0.00 18.50 1040.8 6 26 73.10 50.00 0.00 11.55 1052.4 Px 6 27 84.30 57.00 0.00 20.65 1073.0 Px Pn 6 28 81.80 62.30 0.00 22.05 1095.1 Px Pn 6 29 90.00 65.00 0.00 27.26 1122.3 6 30 93.00 66.00 0.00 28.57 1150.9 7 1 100.00 70.00 0.00 31.63 1182.5 7 2 93.00 74.00 0.00 32.38 1214.9 7 3 95.00 74.00 0.32 32.72 1247.6 7 4 94.00 74.00 0.01 32.56 1280.2 Peak adult emerge 2nd gen; max 3+ gens. 7 5 91.00 73.00 0.04 31.47 1311.6 7 6 84.00 68.00 0.04 26.00 1337.6 7 7 81.00 54.00 0.00 17.50 1355.1 7 8 87.00 55.00 0.00 21.00 1376.1 7 9 91.00 60.00 0.00 25.10 1401.2 7 10 94.00 63.00 0.00 27.36 1428.6 7 11 86.00 69.00 0.00 27.50 1456.1 7 12 84.00 60.00 0.00 22.00 1478.1 7 13 88.00 62.00 0.00 25.00 1503.1 Peak egg laying by 2nd gen females; max 4+ gens. 7 14 86.00 65.00 0.06 25.50 1528.6 7 15 88.00 70.00 0.03 29.00 1557.6 7 16 92.00 70.00 0.00 30.26 1587.9 7 17 87.00 70.00 2.19 28.50 1616.4 7 18 83.00 63.00 0.01 23.00 1639.4 7 19 85.00 55.00 0.00 20.00 1659.4 7 20 86.00 58.00 0.00 22.00 1681.4 7 21 81.00 59.00 0.64 20.00 1701.4 7 22 82.00 66.00 1.24 24.00 1725.4 7 23 82.00 73.00 0.06 27.50 1752.9 Peak adult emerge 3rd gen; max 5 gens. 7 24 84.00 74.00 0.09 29.00 1781.9 7 25 79.00 73.00 0.60 26.00 1807.9 7 26 86.00 71.00 0.13 28.50 1836.4 7 27 88.00 68.00 0.19 28.00 1864.4 7 28 87.00 66.00 0.02 26.50 1890.9 7 29 83.00 66.00 0.00 24.50 1915.4 7 30 83.00 61.00 0.00 22.00 1937.4 7 31 85.00 63.00 0.05 24.00 1961.4 8 1 82.00 68.00 0.05 25.00 1986.4 Peak egg laying by 3rd gen females; max 6+ gens. 8 2 90.00 74.00 0.55 31.70 2018.1 8 3 87.00 74.00 1.43 30.50 2048.6 8 4 83.00 71.00 0.01 27.00 2075.6 8 5 92.00 66.00 0.00 28.32 2103.9 8 6 94.00 69.00 0.00 30.22 2134.1 8 7 91.00 73.00 0.31 31.47 2165.6 8 8 90.00 71.00 0.93 30.22 2195.8 8 9 89.00 70.00 0.38 29.40 2225.2 8 10 89.00 65.00 0.29 26.91 2252.1 Peak adult emerge 4th gen; max 6+ gens. 8 11 74.00 66.00 0.17 20.00 2272.1 8 12 82.00 68.00 0.06 25.00 2297.1 8 13 75.00 70.00 1.58 22.50 2319.6 8 14 84.00 70.00 0.76 27.00 2346.6 8 15 88.00 68.00 0.00 28.00 2374.6 8 16 90.00 69.00 0.00 29.24 2403.8 8 17 89.00 69.00 0.33 28.90 2432.8 8 18 84.00 69.00 0.18 26.50 2459.3 8 19 79.00 66.00 0.00 22.50 2481.8 Peak egg laying by 4th gen females; max 7+ gens. 8 20 79.00 63.00 0.00 21.00 2502.8 8 21 78.00 58.00 0.10 18.00 2520.8 8 22 83.00 67.00 0.05 25.00 2545.8 8 23 78.00 62.00 0.01 20.00 2565.8 8 24 86.00 56.00 0.00 21.00 2586.8 8 25 81.00 60.00 0.00 20.50 2607.3 8 26 83.00 58.00 0.00 20.50 2627.8 8 27 88.00 69.00 0.00 28.50 2656.3 8 28 95.00 73.00 0.00 32.26 2688.5 8 29 95.00 75.00 0.00 33.17 2721.7 8 30 88.00 72.00 0.00 30.00 2751.7 Peak adult emerge 5th gen; max 8+ gens. 8 31 76.00 64.00 0.00 20.00 2771.7 9 1 79.00 60.00 0.00 19.50 2791.2 9 2 82.00 61.00 0.00 21.50 2812.7 9 3 94.00 71.00 0.00 31.16 2843.9 9 4 91.00 72.00 0.00 30.99 2874.8 9 5 91.00 67.00 0.00 28.54 2903.4 9 6 95.00 72.00 0.20 31.81 2935.2 9 7 72.00 65.00 0.07 18.50 2953.7 9 8 67.00 57.00 0.00 12.00 2965.7 9 9 62.00 53.00 0.14 7.50 2973.2 Peak egg laying by 5th gen females; max 9+ gens. 9 10 60.00 53.00 1.56 6.50 2979.7 9 11 73.00 58.00 0.19 15.50 2995.2 9 12 71.00 67.00 1.87 19.00 3014.2 9 13 73.00 65.00 0.54 19.00 3033.2 9 14 77.00 65.00 0.00 21.00 3054.2 9 15 83.00 65.00 0.00 24.00 3078.2 Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 AS284 PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
spotted wing Drosophila model - OSU OIPMC model analysis vers. 3.0
Location: 2018 AS284 West Hartford N1PSJ
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME
DateDDsEvent
 5-10-18 2691st egg laying by ow females
 5-28-18 510Peak (ca. 50%) egg laying by ow females; 1st adult emerge 1st gen
 5-31-18 5711st egg laying by 1st gen females
 6-12-18 762Peak adult emerge 1st gen
 6-23-18 1003Peak egg laying by 1st gen females; max 2+ gens.
 7-4-18 1280Peak adult emerge 2nd gen; max 3+ gens.
 7-13-18 1503Peak egg laying by 2nd gen females; max 4+ gens.
 7-23-18 1753Peak adult emerge 3rd gen; max 5 gens.
 8-1-18 1986Peak egg laying by 3rd gen females; max 6+ gens.
 8-10-18 2252Peak adult emerge 4th gen; max 6+ gens.
 8-19-18 2482Peak egg laying by 4th gen females; max 7+ gens.
 8-30-18 2752Peak adult emerge 5th gen; max 8+ gens.
 9-9-18 2973Peak egg laying by 5th gen females; max 9+ gens.
degree-day graph of spotted wing Drosophila [fruit] OSU OIPMC model analysis vers. 3.0