Online Phenology Models and Degree-day Calculator
immaturedamageadult
spotted wing Drosophila [fruit]
invasive insect model of OSU OIPMC model analysis vers. 3.0


Output from uspest.org/wea invasive insect degree-day/phenology model program:
	Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================ Model species/general links: spotted wing Drosophila [fruit] Type: invasive insect Model source/other links: OSU OIPMC model analysis vers. 3.0 Calculation method: single sine Lower threshold: 50 degrees Fahrenheit Upper threshold: 88 degrees Fahrenheit Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1 Ending date: 9 15 Model validation status: partly validated-has been compared to 2 years of field data in PNW Region of known use: potential for use in US ==============================EVENTS TABLE================================ 1. 261 DDs after Jan 1: 1st egg laying by ow females 2. 510 DDs after Jan 1: Peak (ca. 50%) egg laying by ow females; 1st adult emerge 1st gen 3. 565 DDs after Jan 1: 1st egg laying by 1st gen females 4. 755 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 1st gen 5. 995 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 1st gen females; max 2+ gens. 6. 1249 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 2nd gen; max 3+ gens. 7. 1489 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 2nd gen females; max 4+ gens. 8. 1743 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 3rd gen; max 5 gens. 9. 1983 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 3rd gen females; max 6+ gens. 10. 2237 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 4th gen; max 6+ gens. 11. 2477 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 4th gen females; max 7+ gens. 12. 2731 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 5th gen; max 8+ gens. 13. 2971 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 5th gen females; max 9+ gens. ==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================ Weather station: 2018 ARAO Agrimet AURORA OR Lat45.2817 Long-122.7503 Elev:141 mn day max min precip DD50 CUMDD50 event -- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- ------- 1 1 48.20 28.80 0.00 0.00 0.0 * START * 1 2 44.70 36.50 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 3 46.30 36.50 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 4 47.10 33.40 0.08 0.00 0.0 1 5 54.00 39.50 0.26 0.92 0.9 1 6 51.50 39.10 0.01 0.22 1.1 1 7 47.40 38.40 0.06 0.00 1.1 1 8 47.40 37.30 0.04 0.00 1.1 1 9 47.70 41.90 0.42 0.00 1.1 1 10 50.80 42.50 0.03 0.11 1.2 1 11 55.30 49.20 0.62 2.37 3.6 1 12 54.60 48.50 0.02 1.87 5.5 1 13 60.00 43.50 0.00 3.56 9.1 1 14 58.70 35.60 0.00 2.36 11.4 1 15 59.60 36.70 0.10 2.77 14.2 1 16 56.50 43.30 0.04 2.05 16.2 1 17 52.90 41.90 0.25 0.65 16.9 1 18 51.70 41.30 0.08 0.30 17.2 1 19 47.50 41.50 0.00 0.00 17.2 1 20 48.20 42.30 0.01 0.00 17.2 1 21 51.60 40.30 0.08 0.26 17.4 1 22 50.30 40.40 0.18 0.02 17.5 1 23 52.10 39.50 0.11 0.37 17.8 1 24 53.80 41.00 0.13 0.91 18.7 1 25 47.40 37.30 0.19 0.00 18.7 1 26 47.40 39.40 0.12 0.00 18.7 1 27 53.60 43.10 0.19 0.93 19.7 1 28 61.90 48.40 0.00 5.39 25.1 1 29 56.00 44.40 0.35 1.95 27.0 1 30 49.90 36.70 0.05 0.00 27.0 1 31 47.60 38.40 0.02 0.00 27.0 2 1 50.40 42.00 0.13 0.04 27.0 2 2 57.90 47.80 0.00 3.30 30.3 2 3 57.90 47.10 0.02 3.16 33.5 2 4 58.50 50.30 0.00 4.40 37.9 2 5 57.90 41.30 0.00 2.44 40.3 2 6 53.80 35.40 0.00 0.75 41.1 2 7 55.70 37.40 0.00 1.40 42.5 2 8 57.50 40.40 0.01 2.22 44.7 2 9 50.70 42.60 0.00 0.09 44.8 2 10 50.20 34.10 0.00 0.01 44.8 2 11 48.20 35.20 0.00 0.00 44.8 2 12 47.70 33.60 0.00 0.00 44.8 2 13 49.40 25.90 0.00 0.00 44.8 2 14 48.00 35.00 0.13 0.00 44.8 2 15 50.00 37.90 0.00 0.00 44.8 2 16 49.30 41.20 0.00 0.00 44.8 2 17 52.40 42.90 0.13 0.53 45.3 2 18 42.30 32.30 0.12 0.00 45.3 2 19 39.00 30.80 0.00 0.00 45.3 2 20 38.20 28.80 0.03 0.00 45.3 2 21 37.80 28.40 0.00 0.00 45.3 2 22 39.60 30.60 0.01 0.00 45.3 2 23 39.20 23.00 0.00 0.00 45.3 2 24 49.70 37.00 0.02 0.00 45.3 2 25 45.50 34.40 0.09 0.00 45.3 2 26 44.90 32.80 0.00 0.00 45.3 2 27 45.50 35.10 0.02 0.00 45.3 2 28 47.20 39.80 0.06 0.00 45.3 3 1 47.90 36.70 0.00 0.00 45.3 3 2 49.70 35.50 0.00 0.00 45.3 3 3 52.10 34.60 0.00 0.31 45.6 3 4 50.80 31.50 0.00 0.07 45.7 3 5 51.70 35.40 0.00 0.24 45.9 3 6 56.40 33.80 0.00 1.49 47.4 3 7 54.00 32.90 0.00 0.75 48.2 3 8 55.30 39.20 0.01 1.34 49.5 3 9 52.50 37.30 0.01 0.44 50.0 3 10 61.30 35.50 0.00 3.34 53.3 3 11 67.60 37.90 0.00 6.18 59.5 3 12 71.50 43.00 0.00 8.76 68.3 3 13 62.70 46.80 0.09 5.37 73.6 3 14 53.00 37.10 0.04 0.56 74.2 3 15 52.90 32.30 0.33 0.47 74.7 3 16 51.90 38.60 0.01 0.31 75.0 3 17 49.60 39.50 0.09 0.00 75.0 3 18 53.50 38.30 0.00 0.73 75.7 3 19 57.60 34.40 0.00 1.91 77.6 3 20 60.80 31.30 0.00 2.89 80.5 3 21 53.80 37.60 0.00 0.80 81.3 3 22 47.90 38.20 0.09 0.00 81.3 3 23 43.10 35.10 0.09 0.00 81.3 3 24 43.60 34.50 0.26 0.00 81.3 3 25 52.10 38.40 0.05 0.35 81.7 3 26 49.00 36.50 0.03 0.00 81.7 3 27 55.70 45.30 0.04 1.91 83.6 3 28 58.10 42.30 0.00 2.62 86.2 3 29 59.80 34.90 0.00 2.73 88.9 3 30 58.90 40.30 0.00 2.76 91.7 3 31 61.40 44.60 0.00 4.35 96.0 4 1 47.60 37.40 0.14 0.00 96.0 4 2 52.20 35.70 0.01 0.35 96.4 4 3 52.20 32.80 0.00 0.32 96.7 4 4 62.00 45.50 0.01 4.78 101.5 4 5 52.80 47.40 0.34 0.91 102.4 4 6 68.10 52.50 0.06 10.30 112.7 4 7 59.70 46.70 0.48 3.93 116.6 4 8 52.60 45.60 0.19 0.70 117.3 4 9 68.60 40.90 0.00 7.05 124.3 4 10 59.40 49.60 0.09 4.53 128.9 4 11 57.00 42.80 0.14 2.21 131.1 4 12 50.50 39.80 0.00 0.05 131.1 4 13 55.90 45.40 0.00 2.01 133.1 4 14 57.90 47.90 0.03 3.32 136.5 4 15 48.60 42.90 0.21 0.00 136.5 4 16 48.50 40.40 0.00 0.00 136.5 4 17 52.70 42.60 0.00 0.61 137.1 4 18 60.60 42.50 0.00 3.70 140.8 4 19 66.60 36.40 0.00 5.58 146.3 4 20 65.10 36.60 0.00 4.97 151.3 4 21 61.60 46.70 0.00 4.82 156.1 4 22 64.70 37.10 0.00 4.85 161.0 4 23 75.30 45.80 0.00 11.23 172.2 4 24 81.80 59.50 0.00 20.65 192.9 4 25 85.00 47.60 0.00 16.56 209.4 4 26 77.30 52.10 0.00 14.70 224.1 4 27 54.90 48.10 0.07 1.94 226.1 4 28 62.40 44.90 0.13 4.86 230.9 4 29 58.90 46.90 0.03 3.59 234.5 4 30 55.50 45.70 0.01 1.87 236.4 5 1 59.50 47.70 0.00 4.04 240.4 5 2 74.20 43.50 0.00 10.15 250.6 5 3 76.10 45.20 0.00 11.47 262.0 1st egg laying by ow females 5 4 64.60 50.50 0.00 7.55 269.6 5 5 74.10 50.40 0.00 12.25 281.8 5 6 69.80 52.60 0.00 11.20 293.0 5 7 75.50 50.60 0.00 13.05 306.1 5 8 75.60 48.60 0.08 12.24 318.3 5 9 65.80 52.20 0.05 9.00 327.3 5 10 60.80 48.80 0.27 4.96 332.3 5 11 65.20 46.10 0.00 6.41 338.7 5 12 79.80 48.70 0.00 14.36 353.1 5 13 88.60 48.90 0.00 18.80 371.9 5 14 85.40 52.00 0.00 18.70 390.6 5 15 70.90 50.80 0.00 10.85 401.4 5 16 65.00 54.60 0.00 9.80 411.2 5 17 65.70 53.40 0.00 9.55 420.8 5 18 69.60 51.90 0.00 10.75 431.5 5 19 67.60 50.30 0.00 8.95 440.5 5 20 70.50 53.10 0.00 11.80 452.3 5 21 73.00 45.30 0.00 9.99 462.2 5 22 86.20 48.30 0.00 17.40 479.7 5 23 78.70 54.80 0.00 16.75 496.4 5 24 75.00 56.90 0.00 15.95 512.4 Peak (ca. 50%) egg laying by ow females; 1st adult emerge 1st gen 5 25 67.80 53.40 0.00 10.60 523.0 5 26 66.30 47.80 0.00 7.38 530.3 5 27 78.50 46.70 0.00 13.06 543.4 5 28 72.90 47.50 0.00 10.54 553.9 5 29 67.40 50.00 0.00 8.70 562.6 5 30 68.00 38.90 0.00 6.49 569.1 1st egg laying by 1st gen females 5 31 61.20 49.10 0.15 5.25 574.4 6 1 70.60 47.20 0.01 9.32 583.7 6 2 82.10 48.80 0.00 15.55 599.2 6 3 73.40 53.20 0.00 13.30 612.5 6 4 68.00 53.50 0.00 10.75 623.3 6 5 72.00 44.00 0.00 9.21 632.5 6 6 79.00 45.70 0.00 13.01 645.5 6 7 69.50 53.40 0.00 11.45 656.9 6 8 68.50 54.50 0.23 11.50 668.4 6 9 60.90 50.00 0.27 5.45 673.9 6 10 55.80 48.20 0.32 2.38 676.3 6 11 70.00 49.60 0.01 9.82 686.1 6 12 77.90 44.20 0.00 12.09 698.2 6 13 67.70 54.40 0.00 11.05 709.2 6 14 66.10 53.50 0.00 9.80 719.0 6 15 69.40 50.20 0.00 9.80 728.8 6 16 76.70 55.40 0.00 16.05 744.9 6 17 89.40 52.90 0.03 21.03 765.9 Peak adult emerge 1st gen 6 18 82.20 54.20 0.00 18.20 784.1 6 19 89.60 54.40 0.00 21.85 806.0 6 20 89.00 60.20 0.00 24.52 830.5 6 21 72.20 59.20 0.00 15.70 846.2 6 22 76.10 60.10 0.00 18.10 864.3 6 23 74.60 57.00 0.00 15.80 880.1 6 24 89.30 54.60 0.00 21.84 901.9 6 25 73.80 56.10 0.00 14.95 916.9 6 26 74.50 51.50 0.00 13.00 929.9 6 27 77.20 47.90 0.00 12.79 942.7 6 28 74.40 50.10 0.00 12.25 954.9 6 29 79.10 49.90 0.00 14.50 969.4 6 30 79.80 56.50 0.00 18.15 987.6 7 1 77.70 57.50 0.00 17.60 1005.2 Peak egg laying by 1st gen females; max 2+ gens. 7 2 70.30 49.50 0.00 9.93 1015.1 7 3 75.80 45.80 0.00 11.48 1026.6 7 4 78.90 56.20 0.00 17.55 1044.1 7 5 85.20 52.90 0.00 19.05 1063.2 7 6 78.30 55.90 0.00 17.10 1080.3 7 7 80.50 56.70 0.00 18.60 1098.9 7 8 86.10 54.70 0.00 20.40 1119.3 7 9 67.50 52.30 0.00 9.90 1129.2 7 10 76.10 56.90 0.00 16.50 1145.7 7 11 88.10 53.20 0.00 20.65 1166.3 7 12 96.60 61.80 0.00 27.34 1193.7 7 13 94.00 58.40 0.00 25.14 1218.8 7 14 91.30 55.80 0.00 23.12 1241.9 7 15 96.30 59.40 0.00 26.14 1268.1 Peak adult emerge 2nd gen; max 3+ gens. 7 16 97.10 60.70 0.00 26.92 1295.0 7 17 90.50 58.40 0.00 24.15 1319.1 7 18 84.10 56.60 0.00 20.35 1339.5 7 19 72.80 54.80 0.00 13.80 1353.3 7 20 78.70 49.10 0.00 13.97 1367.3 7 21 79.80 48.20 0.00 14.18 1381.4 7 22 93.50 53.60 0.00 22.67 1404.1 7 23 94.40 56.80 0.00 24.46 1428.6 7 24 94.10 56.60 0.00 24.29 1452.9 7 25 95.30 58.40 0.00 25.44 1478.3 7 26 95.30 58.50 0.00 25.49 1503.8 Peak egg laying by 2nd gen females; max 4+ gens. 7 27 91.00 57.30 0.00 23.77 1527.6 7 28 90.40 54.90 0.00 22.38 1549.9 7 29 97.40 60.30 0.00 26.79 1576.7 7 30 90.50 62.50 0.00 26.18 1602.9 7 31 88.90 58.20 0.00 23.48 1626.4 8 1 86.90 58.40 0.00 22.65 1649.0 8 2 72.20 58.20 0.00 15.20 1664.2 8 3 77.00 60.50 0.00 18.75 1683.0 8 4 84.50 54.80 0.00 19.65 1702.6 8 5 90.60 54.80 0.00 22.40 1725.0 8 6 90.50 57.40 0.00 23.66 1748.7 Peak adult emerge 3rd gen; max 5 gens. 8 7 94.60 59.30 0.00 25.71 1774.4 8 8 91.80 60.90 0.00 25.78 1800.2 8 9 95.90 58.60 0.00 25.67 1825.9 8 10 88.30 61.20 0.00 24.74 1850.6 8 11 76.70 61.40 0.00 19.05 1869.6 8 12 77.10 58.70 0.00 17.90 1887.5 8 13 91.20 55.20 0.00 22.79 1910.3 8 14 93.40 56.90 0.00 24.25 1934.6 8 15 85.50 59.60 0.00 22.55 1957.1 8 16 81.90 56.90 0.00 19.40 1976.5 8 17 80.90 50.10 0.00 15.50 1992.0 Peak egg laying by 3rd gen females; max 6+ gens. 8 18 85.90 52.20 0.00 19.05 2011.1 8 19 88.00 53.40 0.00 20.70 2031.8 8 20 81.80 56.20 0.00 19.00 2050.8 8 21 92.10 63.00 0.00 26.89 2077.7 8 22 91.70 57.10 0.00 23.88 2101.6 8 23 70.00 52.50 0.00 11.25 2112.8 8 24 69.80 51.60 0.00 10.70 2123.5 8 25 71.40 46.00 0.00 9.38 2132.9 8 26 67.40 58.90 0.00 13.15 2146.0 8 27 76.50 59.00 0.01 17.75 2163.8 8 28 88.00 58.30 0.00 23.15 2186.9 8 29 85.20 51.40 0.00 18.30 2205.2 8 30 74.00 56.40 0.00 15.20 2220.4 8 31 75.20 59.30 0.00 17.25 2237.7 Peak adult emerge 4th gen; max 6+ gens. 9 1 73.20 47.70 0.00 10.75 2248.4 9 2 80.90 47.50 0.00 14.49 2262.9 9 3 77.60 50.00 0.00 13.80 2276.7 9 4 82.10 44.90 0.00 14.31 2291.0 9 5 88.20 51.50 0.00 19.84 2310.9 9 6 85.60 51.20 0.00 18.40 2329.3 9 7 81.00 48.70 0.00 14.96 2344.2 9 8 76.00 56.70 0.03 16.35 2360.6 9 9 76.90 49.40 0.00 13.19 2373.8 9 10 76.60 57.60 0.01 17.10 2390.9 Px 9 11 65.30 52.20 0.23 8.75 2399.6 9 12 66.20 51.50 0.03 8.85 2408.5 9 13 68.90 48.10 0.01 8.75 2417.2 9 14 70.40 45.70 0.00 8.83 2426.1 9 15 66.40 47.10 0.00 7.23 2433.3 Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 ARAO PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
spotted wing Drosophila model - OSU OIPMC model analysis vers. 3.0
Location: 2018 ARAO AURORA OR
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME
DateDDsEvent
 5-3-18 2621st egg laying by ow females
 5-24-18 512Peak (ca. 50%) egg laying by ow females; 1st adult emerge 1st gen
 5-30-18 5691st egg laying by 1st gen females
 6-17-18 766Peak adult emerge 1st gen
 7-1-18 1005Peak egg laying by 1st gen females; max 2+ gens.
 7-15-18 1268Peak adult emerge 2nd gen; max 3+ gens.
 7-26-18 1504Peak egg laying by 2nd gen females; max 4+ gens.
 8-6-18 1749Peak adult emerge 3rd gen; max 5 gens.
 8-17-18 1992Peak egg laying by 3rd gen females; max 6+ gens.
 8-31-18 2238Peak adult emerge 4th gen; max 6+ gens.
degree-day graph of spotted wing Drosophila [fruit] OSU OIPMC model analysis vers. 3.0