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invasive insect model of OSU OIPMC model analysis vers. 3.0 |
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Output from uspest.org/wea invasive insect degree-day/phenology model program: Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================ Model species/general links: spotted wing Drosophila [fruit] Type: invasive insect Model source/other links: OSU OIPMC model analysis vers. 3.0 Calculation method: single sine Lower threshold: 50 degrees Fahrenheit Upper threshold: 88 degrees Fahrenheit Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1 Ending date: 9 15 Model validation status: partly validated-has been compared to 2 years of field data in PNW Region of known use: potential for use in US ==============================EVENTS TABLE================================ 1. 261 DDs after Jan 1: 1st egg laying by ow females 2. 510 DDs after Jan 1: Peak (ca. 50%) egg laying by ow females; 1st adult emerge 1st gen 3. 565 DDs after Jan 1: 1st egg laying by 1st gen females 4. 755 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 1st gen 5. 995 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 1st gen females; max 2+ gens. 6. 1249 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 2nd gen; max 3+ gens. 7. 1489 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 2nd gen females; max 4+ gens. 8. 1743 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 3rd gen; max 5 gens. 9. 1983 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 3rd gen females; max 6+ gens. 10. 2237 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 4th gen; max 6+ gens. 11. 2477 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 4th gen females; max 7+ gens. 12. 2731 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 5th gen; max 8+ gens. 13. 2971 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 5th gen females; max 9+ gens. ==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================ Weather station: 2018 AR076 APRSWXNET Erie N3BXL PA Lat42.0900 Long:-80.1728 Elev:722 mn day max min precip DD50 CUMDD50 event -- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- ------- 1 1 14.10 12.20 0.00 0.00 0.0 * START *Vx Vn 1 2 15.90 9.80 0.00 0.00 0.0 Vx Vn 1 3 20.10 6.30 0.00 0.00 0.0 Vx Vn 1 4 18.40 8.70 0.00 0.00 0.0 Vx Vn 1 5 8.10 4.50 0.00 0.00 0.0 Vx Vn 1 6 7.70 3.50 0.00 0.00 0.0 Vx Vn 1 7 28.00 -0.10 0.00 0.00 0.0 Vx Vn 1 8 35.50 28.10 0.00 0.00 0.0 Vx Vn 1 9 33.60 25.30 0.00 0.00 0.0 Vx Vn 1 10 47.00 24.80 0.00 0.00 0.0 Vx Vn 1 11 58.80 47.80 0.00 3.73 3.7 Vx Vn 1 12 57.90 19.80 0.00 1.56 5.3 Vx Vn 1 13 18.10 12.80 0.00 0.00 5.3 Vx Vn 1 14 17.60 8.60 0.00 0.00 5.3 Vx Vn 1 15 25.20 8.40 0.00 0.00 5.3 Vx Vn 1 16 26.20 11.50 0.00 0.00 5.3 Vx Vn 1 17 19.00 5.20 0.00 0.00 5.3 Vx Vn 1 18 25.90 12.30 0.00 0.00 5.3 Vx Vn 1 19 36.60 23.50 0.00 0.00 5.3 Vx Vn 1 20 42.90 34.10 0.00 0.00 5.3 Vx Vn 1 21 43.50 35.60 0.00 0.00 5.3 Vx Vn 1 22 57.50 42.80 0.00 2.41 7.7 Vx Vn 1 23 55.30 31.90 0.00 1.10 8.8 Vx Vn 1 24 28.70 21.60 0.00 0.00 8.8 Vx Vn 1 25 28.80 18.10 0.00 0.00 8.8 Vx Vn 1 26 51.00 26.40 0.00 0.09 8.9 Vx Vn 1 27 48.00 41.20 0.00 0.00 8.9 Vx Vn 1 28 42.80 29.90 0.00 0.00 8.9 Vx Vn 1 29 34.10 25.40 0.00 0.00 8.9 Vx Vn 1 30 22.50 15.80 0.00 0.00 8.9 Vx Vn 1 31 40.00 14.50 0.00 0.00 8.9 Vx Vn 2 1 41.50 19.80 0.00 0.00 8.9 Vx Vn 2 2 16.60 12.50 0.00 0.00 8.9 Vx Vn 2 3 31.80 15.30 0.00 0.00 8.9 Vx Vn 2 4 35.80 26.50 0.00 0.00 8.9 Vx Vn 2 5 19.80 11.90 0.00 0.00 8.9 Vx Vn 2 6 21.00 15.90 0.00 0.00 8.9 Vx Vn 2 7 21.40 15.70 0.00 0.00 8.9 Vx Vn 2 8 18.70 10.90 0.00 0.00 8.9 Vx Vn 2 9 32.60 9.60 0.00 0.00 8.9 Vx Vn 2 10 31.50 26.40 0.00 0.00 8.9 Vx Vn 2 11 37.20 26.20 0.00 0.00 8.9 Vx Vn 2 12 27.10 13.70 0.00 0.00 8.9 Vx Vn 2 13 36.70 8.40 0.00 0.00 8.9 Vx Vn 2 14 46.50 36.40 0.00 0.00 8.9 Vx Vn 2 15 54.80 43.80 0.00 1.41 10.3 Vx Vn 2 16 46.60 23.70 0.00 0.00 10.3 Vx Vn 2 17 30.80 22.60 0.00 0.00 10.3 Vx Vn 2 18 36.00 29.60 0.00 0.00 10.3 Vx Vn 2 19 61.30 35.90 0.00 3.37 13.7 Vx Vn 2 20 69.20 60.90 0.00 15.05 28.7 Vx Vn 2 21 68.30 33.10 0.00 5.96 34.7 Vx Vn 2 22 35.00 32.00 0.00 0.00 34.7 Vx Vn 2 23 56.40 35.20 0.00 1.54 36.2 Vx Vn 2 24 42.90 37.20 0.00 0.00 36.2 Vx Vn 2 25 54.00 38.20 0.00 0.88 37.1 Vx Vn 2 26 44.20 33.40 0.00 0.00 37.1 Vx Vn 2 27 54.70 35.50 0.00 1.01 38.1 Vx Vn 2 28 54.60 44.00 0.00 1.35 39.5 Vx Vn 3 1 44.00 32.40 0.00 0.00 39.5 Vx Vn 3 2 34.70 29.90 0.00 0.00 39.5 Vx Vn 3 3 33.50 27.60 0.00 0.00 39.5 Vx Vn 3 4 31.90 25.00 0.00 0.00 39.5 Vx Vn 3 5 31.20 22.40 0.00 0.00 39.5 Vx Vn 3 6 38.60 25.30 0.00 0.00 39.5 Vx Vn 3 7 35.70 29.00 0.00 0.00 39.5 Vx Vn 3 8 29.70 26.00 0.00 0.00 39.5 Vx Vn 3 9 30.10 28.90 0.00 0.00 39.5 Vx Vn 3 10 32.80 27.30 0.00 0.00 39.5 Vx Vn 3 11 31.80 25.90 0.00 0.00 39.5 Vx Vn 3 12 31.30 19.60 0.00 0.00 39.5 Vx Vn 3 13 31.20 27.60 0.00 0.00 39.5 Vx Vn 3 14 31.10 24.80 0.00 0.00 39.5 Vx Vn 3 15 34.80 28.90 0.00 0.00 39.5 Vx Vn 3 16 27.50 20.60 0.00 0.00 39.5 Vx Vn 3 17 35.90 20.50 0.00 0.00 39.5 Vx Vn 3 18 44.70 24.30 0.00 0.00 39.5 Vx Vn 3 19 33.00 27.00 0.00 0.00 39.5 Vx Vn 3 20 34.20 25.20 0.00 0.00 39.5 Vx Vn 3 21 33.10 27.70 0.00 0.00 39.5 Vx Vn 3 22 36.20 26.40 0.00 0.00 39.5 Vx Vn 3 23 36.00 26.70 0.00 0.00 39.5 Vx Vn 3 24 34.10 22.20 0.00 0.00 39.5 Vx Vn 3 25 35.20 23.90 0.00 0.00 39.5 Vx Vn 3 26 52.50 28.70 0.00 0.35 39.8 Vx Vn 3 27 48.80 37.00 0.00 0.00 39.8 Vx Vn 3 28 50.10 38.50 0.00 0.00 39.8 Vx Vn 3 29 50.20 38.50 0.00 0.01 39.8 Vx Vn 3 30 38.20 30.10 0.00 0.00 39.8 Vx Vn 3 31 52.50 29.00 0.00 0.35 40.2 Vx Vn 4 1 43.60 31.10 0.00 0.00 40.2 Vx Vn 4 2 36.90 31.90 0.00 0.00 40.2 Vx Vn 4 3 58.10 34.30 0.00 2.08 42.3 Vx Vn 4 4 56.50 30.00 0.00 1.40 43.7 Vx Vn 4 5 34.50 28.50 0.00 0.00 43.7 Vx Vn 4 6 41.90 31.30 0.00 0.00 43.7 Vx Vn 4 7 32.00 27.10 0.00 0.00 43.7 Vx Vn 4 8 32.40 27.80 0.00 0.00 43.7 Vx Vn 4 9 34.80 26.40 0.00 0.00 43.7 Vx Vn 4 10 40.40 26.00 0.00 0.00 43.7 Vx Vn 4 11 45.90 30.80 0.00 0.00 43.7 Vx Vn 4 12 71.70 42.20 0.00 8.70 52.4 Vx Vn 4 13 59.10 41.70 0.00 2.97 55.3 Vx Vn 4 14 43.70 33.30 0.00 0.00 55.3 Vx Vn 4 15 50.00 32.20 0.00 0.00 55.3 Vx Vn 4 16 45.80 33.70 0.00 0.00 55.3 Vx Vn 4 17 35.10 30.70 0.00 0.00 55.3 Vx Vn 4 18 36.20 33.70 0.00 0.00 55.3 Vx Vn 4 19 37.00 33.30 0.00 0.00 55.3 Vx Vn 4 20 43.60 34.00 0.00 0.00 55.3 Vx Vn 4 21 45.70 30.20 0.00 0.00 55.3 Vx Vn 4 22 56.50 32.70 0.00 1.48 56.8 Vx Vn 4 23 72.10 46.40 0.00 9.83 66.6 Vx Vn 4 24 60.10 52.20 0.00 6.15 72.8 Vx Vn 4 25 52.00 38.30 0.00 0.33 73.1 Vx Vn 4 26 51.30 37.80 0.00 0.17 73.3 Vx Vn 4 27 57.50 40.40 0.00 2.22 75.5 Vx Vn 4 28 45.80 35.10 0.00 0.00 75.5 Vx Vn 4 29 44.80 34.70 0.00 0.00 75.5 Vx Vn 4 30 56.00 33.30 0.00 1.35 76.9 Vx Vn 5 1 72.40 48.20 0.00 10.51 87.4 Vx Vn 5 2 81.40 63.40 0.00 22.40 109.8 Vx Vn 5 3 72.00 61.50 0.00 16.75 126.5 Vx Vn 5 4 64.20 48.30 0.00 6.49 133.0 Hx Hn 5 5 61.90 46.00 0.00 4.82 137.8 Hx Hn 5 6 62.20 45.40 0.00 4.85 142.7 Hx Hn 5 7 61.30 48.20 0.00 5.04 147.7 Hx Hn 5 8 66.20 45.10 0.00 6.68 154.4 Vx Vn 5 9 81.90 52.10 0.00 17.00 171.4 Vx Vn 5 10 75.30 54.30 0.00 14.80 186.2 Vx Vn 5 11 50.20 43.60 0.00 0.01 186.2 Vx Vn 5 12 48.20 45.70 0.00 0.00 186.2 Vx Vn 5 13 59.10 45.20 0.00 3.39 189.6 Vx Vn 5 14 73.60 51.20 0.00 12.40 202.0 Vx Vn 5 15 69.20 55.30 0.00 12.25 214.3 Vx Vn 5 16 68.20 51.20 0.00 9.70 224.0 Vx Vn 5 17 74.80 53.70 0.00 14.25 238.2 Vx Vn 5 18 66.20 53.50 0.00 9.85 248.1 Vx Vn 5 19 78.00 60.00 0.00 19.00 267.1 Vx Vn 1st egg laying by ow females 5 20 69.50 53.10 0.00 11.30 278.4 Vx Vn 5 21 69.00 48.90 0.00 9.06 287.4 Vx Vn 5 22 70.80 58.70 0.00 14.75 302.2 Vx Vn 5 23 69.40 52.80 0.00 11.10 313.3 Vx Vn 5 24 76.10 52.90 0.00 14.50 327.8 Vx Vn 5 25 80.30 55.90 0.00 18.10 345.9 Vx Vn 5 26 76.60 61.70 0.00 19.15 365.0 Vx Vn 5 27 77.80 65.70 0.00 21.75 386.8 Vx Vn 5 28 83.40 67.70 0.00 25.55 412.3 Vx Vn 5 29 81.60 66.50 0.00 24.05 436.4 Vx Vn 5 30 85.00 67.70 0.00 26.35 462.7 Vx Vn 5 31 86.30 72.50 0.00 29.40 492.1 Vx Vn 6 1 76.70 69.50 0.00 23.10 515.2 Vx Vn Peak (ca. 50%) egg laying by ow females; 1st adult emerge 1st gen 6 2 65.20 59.40 0.00 12.30 527.5 Vx Vn 6 3 79.10 58.10 0.00 18.60 546.1 Vx Vn 6 4 66.80 59.70 0.00 13.25 559.4 Vx Vn 6 5 62.60 53.40 0.00 8.00 567.4 Vx Vn 1st egg laying by 1st gen females 6 6 61.70 51.50 0.00 6.60 574.0 Vx Vn 6 7 76.60 49.40 0.00 13.04 587.0 Vx Vn 6 8 71.60 60.60 0.00 16.10 603.1 Vx Vn 6 9 71.50 60.00 0.00 15.75 618.9 Vx Vn 6 10 65.20 60.60 0.00 12.90 631.8 Vx Vn 6 11 75.10 59.00 0.00 17.05 648.8 Vx Vn 6 12 79.60 59.70 0.00 19.65 668.5 Vx Vn 6 13 79.70 66.90 0.00 23.30 691.8 Vx Vn 6 14 72.20 60.20 0.00 16.20 708.0 Vx Vn 6 15 71.10 57.00 0.00 14.05 722.0 Vx Vn 6 16 81.00 59.60 0.00 20.30 742.3 Vx Vn 6 17 87.20 63.00 0.00 25.10 767.4 Vx Vn Peak adult emerge 1st gen 6 18 90.50 73.30 0.00 31.49 798.9 Vx Vn 6 19 72.50 64.90 0.00 18.70 817.6 Vx Vn 6 20 67.20 63.60 0.00 15.40 833.0 Vx Vn 6 21 73.50 60.40 0.00 16.95 849.9 Vx Vn 6 22 70.00 62.40 0.00 16.20 866.1 Vx Vn 6 23 75.20 64.70 0.00 19.95 886.1 Vx Vn 6 24 71.00 61.60 0.00 16.30 902.4 Vx Vn 6 25 77.70 62.40 0.00 20.05 922.4 Hx Hn 6 26 76.30 63.00 0.00 19.65 942.1 Hx Hn 6 27 76.80 63.30 0.00 20.05 962.1 Hx Hn 6 28 76.10 65.60 0.00 20.85 983.0 Hx Hn 6 29 79.40 65.70 0.00 22.55 1005.5 Vx Vn Peak egg laying by 1st gen females; max 2+ gens. 6 30 89.80 73.40 0.00 31.34 1036.9 Vx Vn 7 1 91.90 71.50 0.00 30.96 1067.9 Vx Vn 7 2 86.80 76.70 0.00 31.75 1099.6 Vx Vn 7 3 83.00 71.30 0.00 27.15 1126.8 Vx Vn 7 4 86.10 72.70 0.00 29.40 1156.2 Vx Vn 7 5 85.80 74.30 0.00 30.05 1186.2 Vx Vn 7 6 74.60 67.60 0.00 21.10 1207.3 Vx Vn 7 7 74.10 59.10 0.00 16.60 1223.9 Vx Vn 7 8 79.90 59.60 0.00 19.75 1243.7 Vx Vn 7 9 83.90 63.60 0.00 23.75 1267.4 Vx Vn Peak adult emerge 2nd gen; max 3+ gens. 7 10 80.10 70.20 0.00 25.15 1292.6 Vx Vn 7 11 79.40 64.50 0.00 21.95 1314.5 Vx Vn 7 12 79.30 60.50 0.00 19.90 1334.4 Vx Vn 7 13 84.20 67.20 0.00 25.70 1360.1 Vx Vn 7 14 85.70 68.50 0.00 27.10 1387.2 Vx Vn 7 15 84.80 73.00 0.00 28.90 1416.1 Vx Vn 7 16 85.30 72.00 0.00 28.65 1444.8 Vx Vn 7 17 79.80 71.10 0.00 25.45 1470.2 Vx Vn 7 18 75.40 63.10 0.00 19.25 1489.5 Vx Vn Peak egg laying by 2nd gen females; max 4+ gens. 7 19 78.90 56.20 0.00 17.55 1507.0 Vx Vn 7 20 86.10 65.40 0.00 25.75 1532.8 Vx Vn 7 21 78.30 70.70 0.00 24.50 1557.3 Vx Vn 7 22 70.20 62.40 0.00 16.30 1573.6 Vx Vn 7 23 82.30 67.80 0.00 25.05 1598.6 Vx Vn 7 24 83.30 71.00 0.00 27.15 1625.8 Vx Vn 7 25 79.80 69.70 0.00 24.75 1650.5 Vx Vn 7 26 84.30 66.70 0.00 25.50 1676.0 Vx Vn 7 27 78.90 64.30 0.00 21.60 1697.6 Px Pn 7 28 74.90 62.50 0.00 18.70 1716.3 Px Pn 7 29 78.80 60.90 0.00 19.85 1736.2 Px Pn 7 30 78.90 63.90 0.00 21.40 1757.6 Px Pn Peak adult emerge 3rd gen; max 5 gens. 7 31 79.10 66.10 0.00 22.60 1780.2 Px Pn 8 1 80.40 68.90 0.00 24.65 1804.8 Px Pn 8 2 80.70 67.80 0.00 24.25 1829.1 Px Pn 8 3 83.90 71.00 0.00 27.45 1856.5 Px Pn 8 4 85.70 69.00 0.00 27.35 1883.9 Px Pn 8 5 89.60 69.20 0.00 29.21 1913.1 Px Pn 8 6 89.70 74.90 0.00 32.05 1945.1 Px Pn 8 7 80.30 70.90 0.00 25.60 1970.7 Px Pn 8 8 82.60 70.90 0.00 26.75 1997.5 Px Pn Peak egg laying by 3rd gen females; max 6+ gens. 8 9 82.70 66.20 0.00 24.45 2021.9 Px Pn 8 10 78.90 67.90 0.00 23.40 2045.3 Px Pn 8 11 78.70 62.80 0.00 20.75 2066.1 Px Pn 8 12 82.20 64.20 0.00 23.20 2089.3 Px Pn 8 13 82.20 62.80 0.00 22.50 2111.8 Px Pn 8 14 82.40 66.20 0.00 24.30 2136.1 Px Pn 8 15 84.60 69.90 0.00 27.25 2163.3 Px Pn 8 16 87.50 73.30 0.00 30.40 2193.7 Px Pn 8 17 82.10 71.70 0.00 26.90 2220.6 Px Pn 8 18 78.60 66.10 0.00 22.35 2243.0 Px Pn Peak adult emerge 4th gen; max 6+ gens. 8 19 76.90 60.90 0.00 18.90 2261.9 Px Pn 8 20 82.20 64.50 0.00 23.35 2285.2 Px Pn 8 21 84.00 70.90 0.00 27.45 2312.7 Px Pn 8 22 71.90 65.80 0.00 18.85 2331.5 Px Pn 8 23 76.80 55.70 0.00 16.25 2347.8 Px Pn 8 24 82.20 60.20 0.00 21.20 2369.0 Px Pn 8 25 82.20 68.90 0.00 25.55 2394.5 Px Pn 8 26 82.10 70.90 0.00 26.50 2421.0 Px Pn 8 27 90.90 71.40 0.00 30.67 2451.7 Px Pn 8 28 92.50 77.80 0.00 34.06 2485.7 Px Pn Peak egg laying by 4th gen females; max 7+ gens. 8 29 91.40 68.90 0.00 29.58 2515.3 Px Pn 8 30 75.00 62.00 0.00 18.50 2533.8 Px Pn 8 31 76.80 59.10 0.00 17.95 2551.8 Px Pn 9 1 91.40 66.20 0.00 28.26 2580.0 Px Pn 9 2 87.40 73.20 0.00 30.30 2610.3 Px Pn 9 3 89.50 72.80 0.00 30.96 2641.3 Px Pn 9 4 89.60 69.70 0.00 29.46 2670.7 Px Pn 9 5 92.70 76.80 0.00 33.63 2704.4 Px Pn 9 6 82.20 69.10 0.00 25.65 2730.0 Px Pn 9 7 80.70 66.80 0.00 23.75 2753.8 Px Pn Peak adult emerge 5th gen; max 8+ gens. 9 8 69.80 57.10 0.00 13.45 2767.2 Px Pn 9 9 61.10 53.50 0.00 7.30 2774.5 Px Pn 9 10 70.20 55.60 0.00 12.90 2787.4 Px Pn 9 11 66.90 62.20 0.00 14.55 2802.0 Px Pn 9 12 75.10 62.50 0.00 18.80 2820.8 Px Pn 9 13 82.60 66.80 0.00 24.70 2845.5 Px Pn 9 14 84.50 71.30 0.00 27.90 2873.4 Px Pn 9 15 83.10 71.80 0.00 27.45 2900.8 Px Pn Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 AR076 PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021