Online Phenology Models and Degree-day Calculator
immaturedamageadult
spotted wing Drosophila [fruit]
invasive insect model of OSU IPPC model analysis vers. 3.0


Output from uspest.org/wea invasive insect degree-day/phenology model program:
	Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================ Model species/general links: spotted wing Drosophila [fruit] Type: invasive insect Model source/other links: OSU IPPC model analysis vers. 3.0 Calculation method: single sine Lower threshold: 50 degrees Fahrenheit Upper threshold: 88 degrees Fahrenheit Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1 Ending date: 9 15 Model validation status: partly validated-has been compared to 2 years of field data in PNW Region of known use: potential for use in US ==============================EVENTS TABLE================================ 1. 261 DDs after Jan 1: 1st EGG LAYING BY OW FEMALES 2. 510 DDs after Jan 1: PEAK (ca. 50%) EGG LAYING BY OW FEMALES; 1st ADULT EMERGE 1st GEN 3. 565 DDs after Jan 1: 1st EGG LAYING BY 1st GEN FEMALES 4. 755 DDs after Jan 1: PEAK ADULT EMERGE 1st GEN 5. 995 DDs after Jan 1: PEAK EGG LAYING BY 1st GEN FEMALES; MAX 2+ GENS. 6. 1249 DDs after Jan 1: PEAK ADULT EMERGE 2nd GEN; MAX 3+ GENS. 7. 1489 DDs after Jan 1: PEAK EGG LAYING BY 2nd GEN FEMALES; MAX 4+ GENS. 8. 1743 DDs after Jan 1: PEAK ADULT EMERGE 3rd GEN; MAX 5 GENS. 9. 1983 DDs after Jan 1: PEAK EGG LAYING BY 3rd GEN FEMALES; MAX 6+ GENS. 10. 2237 DDs after Jan 1: PEAK ADULT EMERGE 4th GEN; MAX 6+ GENS. 11. 2477 DDs after Jan 1: PEAK EGG LAYING BY 4th GEN FEMALES; MAX 7+ GENS. 12. 2731 DDs after Jan 1: PEAK ADULT EMERGE 5th GEN; MAX 8+ GENS. 13. 2971 DDs after Jan 1: PEAK EGG LAYING BY 5th GEN FEMALES; MAX 9+ GENS. ==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================ Weather station: 2018 AP766 APRSWXNET Farmingville WB2CMF NY Lat40.8369 Long:-73.0642 Elev:180 mn day max min precip DD50 CUMDD50 event -- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- ------- 1 1 17.00 6.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 * START * 1 2 24.00 9.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 3 30.00 11.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 4 28.00 21.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 5 21.00 9.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 6 12.00 6.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 7 17.00 6.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 *Warning: using yesterdays min* 1 8 34.00 17.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 9 42.00 27.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 10 39.00 20.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 11 51.00 36.00 0.00 0.11 0.1 1 12 58.00 47.00 0.00 3.18 3.3 1 13 59.00 20.00 0.00 1.88 5.2 1 14 24.00 15.00 0.00 0.00 5.2 1 15 25.00 17.00 0.00 0.00 5.2 1 16 41.00 22.00 0.00 0.00 5.2 1 17 34.00 20.20 0.00 0.00 5.2 Pn 1 18 29.00 18.00 0.00 0.00 5.2 1 19 35.00 19.00 0.00 0.00 5.2 1 20 53.00 30.00 0.00 0.47 5.6 1 21 47.00 31.00 0.00 0.00 5.6 1 22 50.00 39.00 0.00 0.00 5.6 1 23 55.00 41.00 0.00 1.32 7.0 1 24 41.00 28.00 0.00 0.00 7.0 1 25 32.00 22.00 0.00 0.00 7.0 1 26 38.00 20.00 0.00 0.00 7.0 1 27 49.00 30.00 0.00 0.00 7.0 1 28 49.00 42.00 0.00 0.00 7.0 1 29 42.00 32.00 0.00 0.00 7.0 1 30 35.00 25.00 0.00 0.00 7.0 1 31 32.00 16.00 0.00 0.00 7.0 2 1 40.00 32.00 0.00 0.00 7.0 2 2 38.00 15.00 0.00 0.00 7.0 2 3 29.00 11.00 0.00 0.00 7.0 2 4 48.00 29.00 0.00 0.00 7.0 2 5 47.00 24.00 0.00 0.00 7.0 2 6 38.00 21.00 0.00 0.00 7.0 2 7 49.00 27.00 0.00 0.00 7.0 2 8 37.00 23.00 0.00 0.00 7.0 2 9 35.00 19.00 0.00 0.00 7.0 2 10 53.00 35.00 0.00 0.53 7.5 2 11 53.00 45.00 0.00 0.81 8.3 2 12 54.00 31.00 0.00 0.72 9.0 2 13 36.00 24.00 0.00 0.00 9.0 2 14 48.00 29.00 0.00 0.00 9.0 2 15 53.00 40.00 0.00 0.63 9.7 2 16 57.00 39.00 0.00 1.94 11.6 2 17 40.00 27.00 0.00 0.00 11.6 2 18 43.00 32.00 0.00 0.00 11.6 2 19 50.00 29.00 0.00 0.00 11.6 2 20 65.00 46.00 0.00 6.30 17.9 2 21 63.00 48.00 0.00 5.81 23.7 2 22 54.00 34.00 0.00 0.78 24.5 2 23 40.00 34.00 0.00 0.00 24.5 2 24 53.00 39.00 0.00 0.60 25.1 2 25 43.00 40.00 0.00 0.00 25.1 2 26 49.00 37.00 0.00 0.00 25.1 2 27 55.00 31.00 0.00 0.99 26.1 2 28 54.00 36.00 0.00 0.82 26.9 3 1 61.00 41.00 0.00 3.70 30.6 3 2 45.00 36.00 0.00 0.00 30.6 3 3 45.00 34.00 0.00 0.00 30.6 3 4 43.00 33.00 0.00 0.00 30.6 3 5 39.00 32.00 0.00 0.00 30.6 3 6 46.00 28.00 0.00 0.00 30.6 3 7 37.00 32.00 0.00 0.00 30.6 3 8 42.00 30.40 0.00 0.00 30.6 Pn 3 9 41.00 29.00 0.00 0.00 30.6 3 10 41.00 28.00 0.00 0.00 30.6 3 11 44.00 26.00 0.00 0.00 30.6 3 12 44.00 28.00 0.00 0.00 30.6 3 13 37.00 32.00 0.00 0.00 30.6 3 14 42.00 28.00 0.00 0.00 30.6 3 15 46.00 29.00 0.00 0.00 30.6 3 16 39.00 29.00 0.00 0.00 30.6 3 17 46.00 25.00 0.00 0.00 30.6 3 18 38.00 26.00 0.00 0.00 30.6 3 19 41.00 28.00 0.00 0.00 30.6 3 20 36.00 27.00 0.00 0.00 30.6 3 21 37.00 31.00 0.00 0.00 30.6 3 22 48.00 31.00 0.00 0.00 30.6 3 23 48.00 31.00 0.00 0.00 30.6 3 24 47.00 33.00 0.00 0.00 30.6 3 25 41.00 34.00 0.00 0.00 30.6 3 26 47.00 27.00 0.00 0.00 30.6 3 27 50.00 26.00 0.00 0.00 30.6 3 28 51.00 37.00 0.00 0.11 30.7 3 29 52.00 42.00 0.00 0.39 31.1 3 30 59.00 46.00 0.00 3.47 34.6 3 31 54.00 40.00 0.00 0.94 35.5 4 1 61.00 40.00 0.00 3.60 39.1 4 2 46.00 32.00 0.00 0.00 39.1 4 3 41.00 31.00 0.00 0.00 39.1 4 4 53.00 39.00 0.00 0.60 39.7 4 5 46.00 35.00 0.00 0.00 39.7 4 6 52.00 30.00 0.00 0.26 40.0 4 7 47.00 39.00 0.00 0.00 40.0 4 8 44.00 31.00 0.00 0.00 40.0 4 9 46.00 27.00 0.00 0.00 40.0 4 10 47.00 34.00 0.00 0.00 40.0 4 11 51.00 30.00 0.00 0.09 40.0 4 12 57.00 39.00 0.00 1.94 42.0 4 13 75.00 51.00 0.00 13.00 55.0 4 14 74.00 43.00 0.00 9.95 64.9 4 15 43.00 36.00 0.00 0.00 64.9 4 16 58.00 36.00 0.00 2.13 67.1 4 17 50.00 36.00 0.00 0.00 67.1 4 18 54.00 34.00 0.00 0.78 67.8 4 19 44.00 38.00 0.00 0.00 67.8 4 20 51.00 35.00 0.00 0.11 67.9 4 21 61.00 34.00 0.00 3.12 71.1 4 22 62.00 38.00 0.00 3.82 74.9 4 23 65.00 38.00 0.00 5.07 80.0 4 24 64.00 40.00 0.00 4.87 84.8 4 25 57.00 52.00 0.00 4.50 89.3 4 26 68.00 52.00 0.00 10.00 99.3 4 27 55.00 49.00 0.00 2.18 101.5 4 28 66.00 46.00 0.00 6.78 108.3 4 29 57.00 44.00 0.00 2.33 110.6 4 30 51.00 43.00 0.00 0.15 110.8 5 1 75.00 41.00 0.00 10.02 120.8 5 2 87.00 55.00 0.00 21.00 141.8 5 3 87.00 63.00 0.00 25.00 166.8 5 4 79.00 60.00 0.00 19.50 186.3 5 5 73.00 59.00 0.00 16.00 202.3 5 6 65.00 53.00 0.00 9.00 211.3 5 7 71.00 51.00 0.00 11.00 222.3 5 8 72.00 47.00 0.00 9.95 232.2 5 9 73.00 46.00 0.00 10.16 242.4 5 10 60.00 55.00 0.00 7.50 249.9 5 11 70.00 55.00 0.00 12.50 262.4 1st EGG LAYING BY OW FEMALES 5 12 62.00 51.00 0.00 6.50 268.9 5 13 54.00 49.00 0.00 1.69 270.6 5 14 65.00 50.00 0.00 7.50 278.1 5 15 77.00 56.00 0.00 16.50 294.6 5 16 65.00 55.00 0.00 10.00 304.6 5 17 68.00 53.00 0.00 10.50 315.1 5 18 61.00 52.00 0.00 6.50 321.6 5 19 58.00 49.00 0.00 3.64 325.2 5 20 79.00 59.00 0.00 19.00 344.2 5 21 74.00 56.00 0.00 15.00 359.2 5 22 67.00 54.00 0.00 10.50 369.7 5 23 79.00 56.00 0.00 17.50 387.2 5 24 80.00 59.00 0.00 19.50 406.7 5 25 81.00 59.00 0.00 20.00 426.7 5 26 84.00 65.00 0.00 24.50 451.2 5 27 68.00 53.00 0.00 10.50 461.7 5 28 69.00 52.00 0.00 10.50 472.2 5 29 82.00 57.00 0.00 19.50 491.7 5 30 73.00 57.00 0.00 15.00 506.7 5 31 71.00 56.00 0.00 13.50 520.2 PEAK (ca. 50%) EGG LAYING BY OW FEMALES; 1st ADULT EMERGE 1st GEN 6 1 73.00 63.00 0.00 18.00 538.2 6 2 85.00 63.00 0.00 24.00 562.2 6 3 64.00 49.00 0.00 6.61 568.8 1st EGG LAYING BY 1st GEN FEMALES 6 4 64.00 49.00 0.00 6.61 575.4 6 5 69.00 52.00 0.00 10.50 585.9 6 6 66.00 52.00 0.00 9.00 594.9 6 7 66.00 56.00 0.00 11.00 605.9 6 8 76.00 56.00 0.00 16.00 621.9 6 9 78.00 62.00 0.00 20.00 641.9 6 10 72.00 61.00 0.00 16.50 658.4 6 11 69.00 54.00 0.00 11.50 669.9 6 12 70.00 50.00 0.00 10.00 679.9 6 13 70.00 61.00 0.00 15.50 695.4 6 14 83.00 65.00 0.00 24.00 719.4 6 15 72.00 57.00 0.00 14.50 733.9 6 16 81.00 58.00 0.00 19.50 753.4 6 17 85.00 60.00 0.00 22.50 775.9 PEAK ADULT EMERGE 1st GEN 6 18 81.00 68.00 0.00 24.50 800.4 6 19 85.00 71.00 0.00 28.00 828.4 6 20 79.00 63.00 0.00 21.00 849.4 6 21 82.00 64.00 0.00 23.00 872.4 6 22 74.00 62.00 0.00 18.00 890.4 6 23 64.00 61.00 0.00 12.50 902.9 6 24 76.00 62.00 0.00 19.00 921.9 6 25 78.80 63.00 0.00 20.90 942.8 Px 6 26 74.00 58.00 0.00 16.00 958.8 Px 6 27 81.90 60.30 0.00 21.10 979.9 Px Pn 6 28 80.00 65.70 0.00 22.85 1002.8 Px Pn PEAK EGG LAYING BY 1st GEN FEMALES; MAX 2+ GENS. 6 29 87.00 69.00 0.00 28.00 1030.8 6 30 88.00 68.00 0.00 28.00 1058.8 7 1 93.00 71.00 0.00 30.96 1089.8 7 2 88.00 74.00 0.00 31.00 1120.8 7 3 87.00 76.00 0.00 31.50 1152.3 7 4 83.00 75.00 0.00 29.00 1181.3 7 5 86.00 75.00 0.00 30.50 1211.8 7 6 78.00 71.00 0.00 24.50 1236.3 7 7 74.00 60.00 0.00 17.00 1253.3 PEAK ADULT EMERGE 2nd GEN; MAX 3+ GENS. 7 8 79.00 58.00 0.00 18.50 1271.8 7 9 81.00 61.00 0.00 21.00 1292.8 7 10 87.00 64.00 0.00 25.50 1318.3 7 11 82.00 69.00 0.00 25.50 1343.8 7 12 81.00 66.00 0.00 23.50 1367.3 7 13 80.00 64.00 0.00 22.00 1389.3 7 14 84.00 67.00 0.00 25.50 1414.8 7 15 84.00 70.00 0.00 27.00 1441.8 7 16 88.00 71.00 0.00 29.50 1471.3 7 17 80.00 70.00 0.00 25.00 1496.3 PEAK EGG LAYING BY 2nd GEN FEMALES; MAX 4+ GENS. 7 18 81.00 66.00 0.00 23.50 1519.8 7 19 79.00 60.00 0.00 19.50 1539.3 7 20 79.00 64.00 0.00 21.50 1560.8 7 21 75.00 63.00 0.00 19.00 1579.8 7 22 79.00 69.00 0.00 24.00 1603.8 7 23 81.00 74.00 0.00 27.50 1631.3 7 24 82.00 74.00 0.00 28.00 1659.3 7 25 78.00 72.00 0.00 25.00 1684.3 7 26 82.00 71.00 0.00 26.50 1710.8 7 27 84.00 71.00 0.00 27.50 1738.3 7 28 84.00 69.00 0.00 26.50 1764.8 PEAK ADULT EMERGE 3rd GEN; MAX 5 GENS. 7 29 80.00 68.00 0.00 24.00 1788.8 7 30 77.00 67.00 0.00 22.00 1810.8 7 31 80.00 66.00 0.00 23.00 1833.8 8 1 82.00 72.00 0.00 27.00 1860.8 8 2 85.00 77.00 0.00 31.00 1891.8 8 3 83.00 75.00 0.00 29.00 1920.8 8 4 81.00 72.00 0.00 26.50 1947.3 8 5 88.00 72.00 0.00 30.00 1977.3 8 6 90.00 74.00 0.00 31.70 2009.0 PEAK EGG LAYING BY 3rd GEN FEMALES; MAX 6+ GENS. 8 7 85.00 72.00 0.00 28.50 2037.5 8 8 85.00 72.00 0.00 28.50 2066.0 8 9 86.00 73.00 0.00 29.50 2095.5 8 10 85.00 69.00 0.00 27.00 2122.5 8 11 76.00 70.00 0.00 23.00 2145.5 8 12 80.00 71.00 0.00 25.50 2171.0 8 13 75.00 71.00 0.00 23.00 2194.0 8 14 80.00 69.00 0.00 24.50 2218.5 8 15 85.00 69.00 0.00 27.00 2245.5 PEAK ADULT EMERGE 4th GEN; MAX 6+ GENS. 8 16 86.00 74.00 0.00 30.00 2275.5 8 17 85.00 72.00 0.00 28.50 2304.0 8 18 84.00 71.00 0.00 27.50 2331.5 8 19 72.00 64.00 0.00 18.00 2349.5 8 20 74.00 64.00 0.00 19.00 2368.5 8 21 78.90 63.00 0.00 20.95 2389.4 Px 8 22 84.00 66.60 0.00 25.30 2414.7 Px Pn 8 23 80.30 58.80 0.00 19.55 2434.3 Px Pn 8 24 80.00 63.00 0.00 21.50 2455.8 8 25 78.00 63.00 0.00 20.50 2476.3 8 26 79.00 61.00 0.00 20.00 2496.3 PEAK EGG LAYING BY 4th GEN FEMALES; MAX 7+ GENS. 8 27 84.00 72.00 0.00 28.00 2524.3 8 28 90.00 74.00 0.00 31.70 2556.0 8 29 92.00 76.00 0.00 33.13 2589.1 8 30 86.00 76.00 0.00 31.00 2620.1 8 31 76.00 69.00 0.00 22.50 2642.6 9 1 74.00 66.00 0.00 20.00 2662.6 9 2 79.00 63.00 0.00 21.00 2683.6 9 3 84.00 73.00 0.00 28.50 2712.1 9 4 88.00 73.00 0.00 30.50 2742.6 PEAK ADULT EMERGE 5th GEN; MAX 8+ GENS. 9 5 86.00 73.00 0.00 29.50 2772.1 9 6 87.00 72.00 0.00 29.50 2801.6 9 7 73.00 69.00 0.00 21.00 2822.6 9 8 70.00 60.00 0.00 15.00 2837.6 9 9 63.00 55.00 0.00 9.00 2846.6 9 10 64.00 55.00 0.00 9.50 2856.1 9 11 80.00 64.00 0.00 22.00 2878.1 9 12 79.00 70.00 0.00 24.50 2902.6 9 13 75.00 67.00 0.00 21.00 2923.6 9 14 76.00 65.00 0.00 20.50 2944.1 9 15 77.00 63.00 0.00 20.00 2964.1 QA 97% ok  
Forecast using: NWS NDFD 7-day Forecast data
Forecast using: 10 yr Hist Avg AP766 2006-2015
spotted wing Drosophila model - OSU IPPC model analysis vers. 3.0
Location: 2018 AP766 Farmingville WB2CMF NY
QA 97% ok  - show details
DateDDsEvent
 5-11-18 2621st EGG LAYING BY OW FEMALES
 5-31-18 520PEAK (ca. 50%) EGG LAYING BY OW FEMALES; 1st ADULT EMERGE 1st GEN
 6-3-18 5691st EGG LAYING BY 1st GEN FEMALES
 6-17-18 776PEAK ADULT EMERGE 1st GEN
 6-28-18 1003PEAK EGG LAYING BY 1st GEN FEMALES; MAX 2+ GENS.
 7-7-18 1253PEAK ADULT EMERGE 2nd GEN; MAX 3+ GENS.
 7-17-18 1496PEAK EGG LAYING BY 2nd GEN FEMALES; MAX 4+ GENS.
 7-28-18 1765PEAK ADULT EMERGE 3rd GEN; MAX 5 GENS.
 8-6-18 2009PEAK EGG LAYING BY 3rd GEN FEMALES; MAX 6+ GENS.
 8-15-18 2245PEAK ADULT EMERGE 4th GEN; MAX 6+ GENS.
 8-26-18 2496PEAK EGG LAYING BY 4th GEN FEMALES; MAX 7+ GENS.
 9-4-18 2743PEAK ADULT EMERGE 5th GEN; MAX 8+ GENS.
degree-day graph of spotted wing Drosophila [fruit] OSU IPPC model analysis vers. 3.0