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invasive insect model of OSU OIPMC model analysis vers. 3.0 |
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Output from uspest.org/wea invasive insect degree-day/phenology model program: Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================ Model species/general links: spotted wing Drosophila [fruit] Type: invasive insect Model source/other links: OSU OIPMC model analysis vers. 3.0 Calculation method: single sine Lower threshold: 50 degrees Fahrenheit Upper threshold: 88 degrees Fahrenheit Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1 No ending date, set to: default date 12 31 Model validation status: partly validated-has been compared to 2 years of field data in PNW Region of known use: potential for use in US ==============================EVENTS TABLE================================ 1. 261 DDs after Jan 1: 1st egg laying by ow females 2. 510 DDs after Jan 1: Peak (ca. 50%) egg laying by ow females; 1st adult emerge 1st gen 3. 565 DDs after Jan 1: 1st egg laying by 1st gen females 4. 755 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 1st gen 5. 995 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 1st gen females; max 2+ gens. 6. 1249 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 2nd gen; max 3+ gens. 7. 1489 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 2nd gen females; max 4+ gens. 8. 1743 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 3rd gen; max 5 gens. 9. 1983 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 3rd gen females; max 6+ gens. 10. 2237 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 4th gen; max 6+ gens. 11. 2477 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 4th gen females; max 7+ gens. 12. 2731 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 5th gen; max 8+ gens. 13. 2971 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 5th gen females; max 9+ gens. ==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================ Weather station: 2018 THON3 CRN THOMPSON FARM AT DURHA NH Lat:43.1717 Long:-70.9278 Elev:80 mn day max min precip DD50 CUMDD50 event -- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- ------- 1 1 9.00 -7.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 * START * 1 2 13.20 -6.80 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 3 26.60 -2.90 0.04 0.00 0.0 1 4 31.30 4.70 0.28 0.00 0.0 1 5 23.00 -0.50 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 6 7.60 -3.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 7 14.40 -7.40 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 8 33.00 13.70 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 9 39.10 21.30 0.01 0.00 0.0 1 10 36.00 14.10 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 11 52.40 30.60 0.00 0.34 0.3 1 12 61.20 36.10 0.30 3.34 3.7 1 13 61.00 15.30 0.68 2.35 6.0 1 14 22.50 10.30 0.00 0.00 6.0 1 15 20.30 5.50 0.00 0.00 6.0 1 16 30.40 14.70 0.00 0.00 6.0 1 17 30.70 27.30 0.10 0.00 6.0 1 18 29.70 13.10 0.19 0.00 6.0 1 19 31.90 13.30 0.01 0.00 6.0 1 20 47.70 25.30 0.03 0.00 6.0 1 21 45.40 23.40 0.00 0.00 6.0 1 22 35.00 25.20 0.08 0.00 6.0 1 23 33.40 24.40 0.39 0.00 6.0 1 24 35.60 26.80 0.40 0.00 6.0 1 25 24.50 14.20 0.01 0.00 6.0 1 26 30.10 13.50 0.03 0.00 6.0 1 27 50.00 10.00 0.00 0.00 6.0 1 28 49.20 29.60 0.00 0.00 6.0 1 29 34.50 24.50 0.00 0.00 6.0 1 30 29.20 20.90 0.00 0.00 6.0 1 31 29.60 14.80 0.00 0.00 6.0 2 1 39.00 27.50 0.04 0.00 6.0 2 2 38.20 7.60 0.07 0.00 6.0 2 3 24.70 3.40 0.00 0.00 6.0 2 4 40.50 16.20 0.08 0.00 6.0 2 5 41.30 20.10 0.39 0.00 6.0 2 6 31.90 18.20 0.00 0.00 6.0 2 7 29.60 13.80 0.16 0.00 6.0 2 8 27.90 11.40 0.30 0.00 6.0 2 9 26.70 3.20 0.07 0.00 6.0 2 10 42.70 21.90 0.46 0.00 6.0 2 11 37.90 32.90 0.92 0.00 6.0 2 12 39.40 26.60 0.01 0.00 6.0 2 13 30.90 19.00 0.00 0.00 6.0 2 14 46.50 23.10 0.00 0.00 6.0 2 15 51.30 26.20 0.00 0.13 6.2 2 16 47.00 31.80 0.03 0.00 6.2 2 17 33.30 22.40 0.00 0.00 6.2 2 18 40.40 23.20 0.61 0.00 6.2 2 19 47.60 14.50 0.11 0.00 6.2 2 20 55.00 37.90 0.09 1.18 7.3 2 21 75.60 32.80 0.01 9.04 16.4 2 22 50.20 25.80 0.10 0.01 16.4 2 23 38.10 21.40 0.10 0.00 16.4 2 24 49.70 28.90 0.00 0.00 16.4 2 25 37.70 28.50 0.41 0.00 16.4 2 26 48.90 28.70 0.01 0.00 16.4 2 27 50.30 24.10 0.01 0.01 16.4 2 28 61.40 28.10 0.00 2.94 19.4 3 1 56.90 31.80 0.00 1.58 20.9 3 2 42.20 33.80 0.66 0.00 20.9 3 3 46.40 36.70 0.00 0.00 20.9 3 4 44.10 36.50 0.00 0.00 20.9 3 5 43.40 28.10 0.06 0.00 20.9 3 6 36.80 30.10 0.00 0.00 20.9 3 7 33.80 31.40 0.05 0.00 20.9 3 8 33.80 28.60 0.31 0.00 20.9 3 9 34.50 21.40 0.26 0.00 20.9 3 10 38.10 26.20 0.02 0.00 20.9 3 11 42.30 26.70 0.00 0.00 20.9 3 12 39.30 19.40 0.01 0.00 20.9 3 13 36.20 27.80 0.32 0.00 20.9 3 14 37.70 29.70 0.24 0.00 20.9 3 15 41.30 31.70 0.00 0.00 20.9 3 16 35.00 25.70 0.00 0.00 20.9 3 17 35.90 14.10 0.00 0.00 20.9 3 18 27.70 8.80 0.00 0.00 20.9 3 19 31.50 14.10 0.00 0.00 20.9 3 20 41.80 18.00 0.00 0.00 20.9 3 21 39.00 24.20 0.00 0.00 20.9 3 22 46.00 30.70 0.13 0.00 20.9 3 23 44.30 24.10 0.00 0.00 20.9 3 24 43.80 30.70 0.00 0.00 20.9 3 25 37.70 26.10 0.00 0.00 20.9 3 26 40.80 24.10 0.00 0.00 20.9 3 27 45.20 19.00 0.00 0.00 20.9 3 28 55.20 31.30 0.01 1.05 22.0 3 29 50.10 27.60 0.05 0.00 22.0 3 30 54.90 39.40 0.08 1.21 23.2 3 31 54.80 37.20 0.00 1.10 24.3 4 1 55.80 33.60 0.00 1.29 25.6 4 2 41.10 28.20 0.02 0.00 25.6 4 3 48.70 24.90 0.11 0.00 25.6 4 4 46.40 37.40 0.49 0.00 25.6 4 5 40.50 26.60 0.00 0.00 25.6 4 6 40.40 19.50 0.14 0.00 25.6 4 7 45.60 31.50 0.08 0.00 25.6 4 8 44.60 25.40 0.00 0.00 25.6 4 9 41.80 26.40 0.00 0.00 25.6 4 10 40.70 26.80 0.00 0.00 25.6 4 11 48.30 23.00 0.00 0.00 25.6 4 12 55.20 25.70 0.19 0.94 26.5 4 13 59.90 35.50 0.01 2.80 29.3 4 14 51.50 32.80 0.00 0.18 29.5 4 15 32.70 27.00 0.06 0.00 29.5 4 16 50.20 29.10 2.17 0.01 29.5 4 17 48.20 37.30 0.01 0.00 29.5 4 18 53.50 32.20 0.00 0.61 30.1 4 19 45.10 33.20 0.11 0.00 30.1 4 20 50.10 35.10 0.01 0.00 30.1 4 21 57.00 34.60 0.00 1.72 31.9 4 22 59.50 29.40 0.00 2.35 34.2 4 23 63.00 27.10 0.00 3.46 37.7 4 24 71.60 30.40 0.00 7.06 44.7 4 25 54.20 47.40 1.01 1.51 46.2 4 26 67.00 48.10 0.41 7.81 54.0 4 27 58.90 38.90 0.07 2.65 56.7 4 28 67.40 45.70 0.01 7.38 64.1 4 29 55.00 40.90 0.30 1.31 65.4 4 30 48.20 34.50 0.06 0.00 65.4 5 1 65.10 32.40 0.00 4.59 70.0 5 2 88.50 44.40 0.00 17.28 87.3 5 3 84.30 60.10 0.00 22.20 109.5 5 4 75.30 58.70 0.00 17.00 126.5 5 5 72.70 52.60 0.00 12.65 139.1 5 6 65.80 50.60 0.08 8.20 147.3 5 7 65.00 44.30 0.01 5.96 153.3 5 8 67.60 41.80 0.00 6.73 160.0 5 9 65.90 40.30 0.00 5.74 165.8 5 10 64.20 45.60 0.00 5.83 171.6 5 11 64.50 43.70 0.00 5.62 177.2 5 12 52.90 34.80 0.00 0.50 177.7 5 13 62.40 33.10 0.00 3.59 181.3 5 14 73.10 46.70 0.00 10.40 191.7 5 15 82.90 50.80 0.02 16.85 208.6 5 16 58.00 45.20 0.00 2.90 211.5 5 17 74.70 44.70 0.00 10.66 222.1 5 18 60.00 38.40 0.00 3.05 225.2 5 19 59.00 33.90 0.19 2.38 227.5 5 20 75.70 49.50 0.01 12.63 240.2 5 21 76.80 44.60 0.00 11.65 251.8 5 22 68.10 45.40 0.05 7.65 259.5 5 23 80.80 51.90 0.00 16.35 275.8 1st egg laying by ow females 5 24 65.00 46.00 0.00 6.30 282.1 5 25 86.30 46.90 0.00 16.97 299.1 5 26 81.90 59.20 0.16 20.55 319.6 5 27 64.30 47.80 0.38 6.40 326.0 5 28 62.80 47.50 0.00 5.59 331.6 5 29 85.30 49.20 0.00 17.30 348.9 5 30 69.30 51.00 0.00 10.15 359.1 5 31 81.10 45.10 0.00 13.88 373.0 6 1 80.30 64.90 0.00 22.60 395.6 6 2 84.10 55.20 0.00 19.65 415.2 6 3 61.60 45.20 0.00 4.54 419.7 6 4 50.90 46.90 0.33 0.19 419.9 6 5 56.40 46.00 0.18 2.30 422.2 6 6 65.20 50.00 0.01 7.60 429.8 6 7 69.80 46.30 0.00 8.68 438.5 6 8 77.60 52.80 0.00 15.20 453.7 6 9 78.00 45.90 0.00 12.58 466.3 6 10 74.70 43.70 0.00 10.43 476.7 6 11 68.00 45.00 0.00 7.51 484.2 6 12 81.00 41.90 0.00 13.05 497.3 6 13 80.50 56.10 0.05 18.30 515.6 Peak (ca. 50%) egg laying by ow females; 1st adult emerge 1st gen 6 14 74.00 55.90 0.01 14.95 530.5 6 15 68.90 52.20 0.01 10.55 541.1 6 16 82.00 46.80 0.00 14.81 555.9 6 17 84.00 49.30 0.00 16.69 572.6 1st egg laying by 1st gen females 6 18 87.80 52.50 0.03 20.15 592.7 6 19 78.80 56.20 0.01 17.50 610.2 6 20 80.90 46.90 0.00 14.30 624.5 6 21 80.00 53.80 0.00 16.90 641.4 6 22 73.70 47.80 0.00 11.02 652.5 6 23 66.70 51.30 0.00 9.00 661.5 6 24 77.20 52.70 0.29 14.95 676.4 6 25 74.40 51.90 0.22 13.15 689.6 Px 6 26 78.00 45.10 0.01 12.36 701.9 Px 6 27 86.20 52.60 0.00 19.40 721.3 Px Pn 6 28 79.20 57.70 0.00 18.45 739.8 Px Pn 6 29 86.80 63.50 0.00 25.15 764.9 Pn Peak adult emerge 1st gen 6 30 89.50 61.90 0.00 25.55 790.5 7 1 90.80 68.50 0.00 29.22 819.7 7 2 80.50 65.60 0.00 23.05 842.8 7 3 94.20 63.20 0.00 27.50 870.3 7 4 90.80 63.80 0.00 26.91 897.2 7 5 92.00 63.10 0.00 26.91 924.1 7 6 84.50 60.00 0.01 22.25 946.3 7 7 78.60 47.10 0.00 13.23 959.5 7 8 83.50 48.70 0.00 16.21 975.8 7 9 88.60 55.60 0.00 22.07 997.8 Peak egg laying by 1st gen females; max 2+ gens. 7 10 92.30 61.10 0.00 26.01 1023.8 7 11 79.90 56.20 0.00 18.05 1041.9 7 12 80.00 50.20 0.00 15.10 1057.0 7 13 79.80 52.60 0.00 16.20 1073.2 7 14 77.30 54.60 0.00 15.95 1089.1 7 15 78.30 62.10 0.68 20.20 1109.3 7 16 81.70 58.40 0.00 20.05 1129.4 7 17 85.70 66.50 2.23 26.10 1155.5 7 18 78.00 55.60 0.01 16.80 1172.3 7 19 78.70 48.10 0.00 13.60 1185.9 7 20 82.60 50.40 0.00 16.50 1202.4 7 21 76.10 51.40 0.00 13.75 1216.1 7 22 74.10 58.50 0.50 16.30 1232.4 7 23 81.90 69.70 0.14 25.80 1258.2 Peak adult emerge 2nd gen; max 3+ gens. 7 24 82.80 69.10 0.00 25.95 1284.2 7 25 82.90 67.90 0.02 25.40 1309.6 7 26 82.30 68.70 0.97 25.50 1335.1 7 27 87.70 63.20 0.06 25.45 1360.5 7 28 85.80 66.00 0.69 25.90 1386.4 7 29 80.50 61.90 0.01 21.20 1407.6 7 30 81.70 56.80 0.00 19.25 1426.9 7 31 84.30 59.00 0.00 21.65 1448.5 8 1 78.40 60.60 0.05 19.50 1468.0 8 2 89.00 67.00 0.01 27.91 1495.9 Peak egg laying by 2nd gen females; max 4+ gens. 8 3 87.20 67.70 0.73 27.45 1523.4 8 4 78.80 66.50 0.19 22.65 1546.0 8 5 87.20 66.90 0.01 27.05 1573.1 8 6 90.60 64.10 0.00 27.00 1600.1 8 7 91.30 69.00 0.04 29.60 1629.7 8 8 84.60 67.70 0.11 26.15 1655.8 8 9 85.80 67.20 0.01 26.50 1682.3 8 10 80.60 60.10 0.00 20.35 1702.7 8 11 69.10 59.00 0.02 14.05 1716.7 8 12 70.50 63.80 0.34 17.15 1733.9 8 13 74.50 65.80 0.00 20.15 1754.0 Peak adult emerge 3rd gen; max 5 gens. 8 14 80.90 66.20 1.12 23.55 1777.6 8 15 84.80 67.40 0.00 26.10 1803.7 8 16 84.60 63.70 0.01 24.15 1827.8 8 17 76.60 59.70 0.24 18.15 1846.0 8 18 80.60 65.40 0.13 23.00 1869.0 8 19 73.60 59.40 0.01 16.50 1885.5 8 20 73.90 55.80 0.00 14.85 1900.3 8 21 72.20 52.20 0.00 12.20 1912.5 8 22 77.90 58.90 0.46 18.40 1930.9 8 23 75.30 53.30 0.00 14.30 1945.2 8 24 81.60 49.20 0.00 15.45 1960.7 8 25 82.00 54.80 0.00 18.40 1979.1 8 26 80.90 55.40 0.00 18.15 1997.3 Peak egg laying by 3rd gen females; max 6+ gens. 8 27 85.00 63.60 0.00 24.30 2021.6 8 28 90.90 68.00 0.00 29.01 2050.6 8 29 92.40 69.90 0.00 30.31 2080.9 8 30 83.40 62.60 0.00 23.00 2103.9 8 31 71.10 52.50 0.00 11.80 2115.7 9 1 72.40 50.40 0.00 11.40 2127.1 9 2 81.20 56.10 0.00 18.65 2145.7 9 3 90.10 63.30 0.00 26.45 2172.2 9 4 86.20 64.60 0.00 25.40 2197.6 9 5 87.50 62.00 0.00 24.75 2222.3 9 6 90.40 68.20 0.07 28.96 2251.3 Peak adult emerge 4th gen; max 6+ gens. 9 7 69.90 56.00 0.01 12.95 2264.2 9 8 65.90 51.00 0.00 8.45 2272.7 9 9 61.30 47.80 0.00 4.93 2277.6 9 10 64.50 46.70 0.21 6.21 2283.8 9 11 73.80 57.90 0.86 15.85 2299.7 9 12 68.40 64.00 0.11 16.20 2315.9 9 13 74.20 58.70 0.01 16.45 2332.3 9 14 75.90 57.50 0.01 16.70 2349.0 9 15 73.30 59.60 0.02 16.45 2365.5 9 16 83.60 55.60 0.00 19.60 2385.1 9 17 82.60 58.20 0.00 20.40 2405.5 9 18 76.00 63.50 1.25 19.75 2425.2 9 19 66.60 58.10 0.00 12.35 2437.6 9 20 62.60 55.60 0.00 9.10 2446.7 9 21 68.30 54.70 0.00 11.50 2458.2 9 22 70.10 45.70 0.00 8.68 2466.9 9 23 64.90 41.60 0.00 5.48 2472.3 9 24 55.40 41.00 0.00 1.46 2473.8 9 25 65.50 39.40 0.81 5.45 2479.2 Peak egg laying by 4th gen females; max 7+ gens. 9 26 81.30 63.80 0.26 22.55 2501.8 9 27 69.00 55.10 0.05 12.05 2513.8 9 28 62.20 47.10 0.02 5.20 2519.0 9 29 67.50 45.50 0.00 7.38 2526.4 9 30 65.70 40.30 0.00 5.66 2532.1 10 1 55.10 48.20 0.22 2.05 2534.1 10 2 54.30 50.40 0.27 2.35 2536.5 10 3 61.90 49.60 0.07 5.78 2542.3 10 4 70.90 54.00 0.00 12.45 2554.7 10 5 63.10 41.00 0.00 4.60 2559.3 10 6 59.70 39.70 0.00 3.03 2562.4 10 7 71.40 54.10 0.02 12.75 2575.1 10 8 55.20 48.50 0.01 2.16 2577.3 10 9 78.70 49.10 0.01 13.97 2591.2 10 10 81.60 58.70 0.00 20.15 2611.4 10 11 57.60 52.30 0.44 4.95 2616.3 10 12 59.00 40.10 0.01 2.79 2619.1 10 13 49.70 35.60 0.05 0.00 2619.1 10 14 57.40 31.90 0.01 1.75 2620.9 10 15 60.60 31.40 0.00 2.82 2623.7 Px 10 16 57.10 33.20 0.00 1.70 2625.4 Px Pn 10 17 57.90 33.10 0.02 1.96 2627.3 Pn 10 18 42.90 27.30 0.03 0.00 2627.3 10 19 58.10 25.80 0.00 1.77 2629.1 10 20 62.90 39.30 0.00 4.32 2633.4 10 21 45.00 34.10 0.00 0.00 2633.4 10 22 49.10 27.30 0.00 0.00 2633.4 10 23 53.80 36.20 0.51 0.77 2634.2 10 24 47.30 34.20 0.01 0.00 2634.2 10 25 44.50 29.90 0.01 0.00 2634.2 10 26 45.00 26.40 0.00 0.00 2634.2 10 27 45.50 32.80 1.17 0.00 2634.2 10 28 47.00 37.90 0.04 0.00 2634.2 10 29 51.10 37.20 0.45 0.13 2634.3 10 30 44.70 28.90 0.02 0.00 2634.3 10 31 49.00 25.40 0.00 0.00 2634.3 11 1 49.90 40.60 0.13 0.00 2634.3 11 2 50.80 47.30 0.77 0.17 2634.5 11 3 55.60 43.90 1.64 1.74 2636.2 11 4 49.50 31.50 0.00 0.00 2636.2 11 5 41.00 30.20 0.22 0.00 2636.2 11 6 51.20 40.40 0.49 0.17 2636.4 11 7 60.00 40.00 0.02 3.18 2639.6 11 8 52.90 30.90 0.00 0.45 2640.0 11 9 46.50 26.40 0.33 0.00 2640.0 11 10 46.80 34.40 0.73 0.00 2640.0 11 11 40.40 26.00 0.00 0.00 2640.0 11 12 46.40 22.80 0.00 0.00 2640.0 11 13 50.80 32.20 1.40 0.07 2640.1 11 14 37.90 19.30 0.00 0.00 2640.1 11 15 29.20 17.10 0.00 0.00 2640.1 11 16 35.90 26.30 0.59 0.00 2640.1 11 17 44.60 24.90 0.17 0.00 2640.1 11 18 35.50 27.60 0.00 0.00 2640.1 11 19 35.20 30.20 0.10 0.00 2640.1 11 20 32.80 29.20 0.26 0.00 2640.1 11 21 34.90 17.40 0.01 0.00 2640.1 11 22 17.30 6.80 0.00 0.00 2640.1 11 23 27.20 7.60 0.03 0.00 2640.1 11 24 41.90 16.60 0.01 0.00 2640.1 11 25 41.40 31.50 0.13 0.00 2640.1 11 26 41.40 34.40 0.19 0.00 2640.1 11 27 38.70 33.00 1.48 0.00 2640.1 11 28 39.00 30.00 0.00 0.00 2640.1 11 29 41.20 30.40 0.00 0.00 2640.1 11 30 41.70 23.30 0.00 0.00 2640.1 12 1 42.20 27.40 0.00 0.00 2640.1 12 2 45.80 29.80 0.67 0.00 2640.1 12 3 50.50 36.50 0.01 0.04 2640.2 12 4 38.00 21.30 0.00 0.00 2640.2 12 5 31.30 15.40 0.00 0.00 2640.2 12 6 37.90 20.50 0.00 0.00 2640.2 12 7 35.40 20.20 0.00 0.00 2640.2 12 8 25.00 12.40 0.00 0.00 2640.2 12 9 33.80 10.90 0.00 0.00 2640.2 12 10 34.50 16.60 0.00 0.00 2640.2 12 11 33.70 11.00 0.00 0.00 2640.2 12 12 34.70 14.50 0.00 0.00 2640.2 12 13 27.90 6.30 0.00 0.00 2640.2 12 14 44.30 18.50 0.00 0.00 2640.2 12 15 52.80 27.70 0.00 0.40 2640.6 12 16 38.20 26.30 0.23 0.00 2640.6 12 17 38.40 32.60 0.19 0.00 2640.6 12 18 34.60 21.10 0.00 0.00 2640.6 12 19 36.60 21.60 0.00 0.00 2640.6 12 20 43.30 17.40 0.00 0.00 2640.6 12 21 57.80 32.50 0.45 1.90 2642.5 12 22 54.20 34.20 0.04 0.84 2643.3 12 23 35.10 21.60 0.00 0.00 2643.3 12 24 37.80 20.30 0.00 0.00 2643.3 12 25 31.90 22.50 0.00 0.00 2643.3 12 26 33.60 19.90 0.00 0.00 2643.3 12 27 32.00 22.60 0.00 0.00 2643.3 12 28 38.00 22.80 0.32 0.00 2643.3 12 29 48.80 25.80 0.01 0.00 2643.3 12 30 31.40 19.50 0.00 0.00 2643.3 12 31 40.15 22.50 0.04 0.00 2643.3 Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 THON3 PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021