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invasive insect model of OSU OIPMC model analysis vers. 3.0 |
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Output from uspest.org/wea invasive insect degree-day/phenology model program: Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================ Model species/general links: spotted wing Drosophila [fruit] Type: invasive insect Model source/other links: OSU OIPMC model analysis vers. 3.0 Calculation method: single sine Lower threshold: 50 degrees Fahrenheit Upper threshold: 88 degrees Fahrenheit Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1 No ending date, set to: default date 12 31 Model validation status: partly validated-has been compared to 2 years of field data in PNW Region of known use: potential for use in US ==============================EVENTS TABLE================================ 1. 261 DDs after Jan 1: 1st egg laying by ow females 2. 510 DDs after Jan 1: Peak (ca. 50%) egg laying by ow females; 1st adult emerge 1st gen 3. 565 DDs after Jan 1: 1st egg laying by 1st gen females 4. 755 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 1st gen 5. 995 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 1st gen females; max 2+ gens. 6. 1249 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 2nd gen; max 3+ gens. 7. 1489 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 2nd gen females; max 4+ gens. 8. 1743 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 3rd gen; max 5 gens. 9. 1983 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 3rd gen females; max 6+ gens. 10. 2237 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 4th gen; max 6+ gens. 11. 2477 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 4th gen females; max 7+ gens. 12. 2731 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 5th gen; max 8+ gens. 13. 2971 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 5th gen females; max 9+ gens. ==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================ Weather station: 2018 KOKV METAR Winchester Regional VA Lat39.1500 Long:-78.1500 Elev:728 mn day max min precip DD50 CUMDD50 event -- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- ------- 1 1 21.20 5.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 * START * 1 2 26.60 8.60 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 3 30.20 1.40 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 4 24.80 12.20 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 5 15.80 8.60 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 6 17.60 6.80 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 7 26.60 -0.40 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 8 41.00 17.60 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 9 46.40 28.40 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 10 46.40 23.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 11 62.60 26.60 0.00 3.29 3.3 1 12 68.00 53.60 0.68 10.80 14.1 1 13 46.40 17.60 1.14 0.00 14.1 1 14 23.00 10.40 0.00 0.00 14.1 1 15 28.40 8.60 0.00 0.00 14.1 1 16 33.70 21.80 0.00 0.00 14.1 Px Pn 1 17 30.20 14.00 0.00 0.00 14.1 1 18 44.60 17.60 0.00 0.00 14.1 1 19 51.80 28.40 0.00 0.21 14.3 1 20 59.00 28.40 0.00 2.14 16.4 1 21 59.00 33.80 0.00 2.38 18.8 1 22 62.60 50.00 0.00 6.30 25.1 1 23 55.40 41.00 0.70 1.46 26.6 1 24 42.80 33.80 0.00 0.00 26.6 1 25 35.60 23.00 0.00 0.00 26.6 1 26 46.40 19.40 0.00 0.00 26.6 1 27 59.00 26.60 0.00 2.07 28.7 1 28 53.60 41.00 0.14 0.84 29.5 1 29 44.60 32.00 0.00 0.00 29.5 1 30 33.80 19.40 0.00 0.00 29.5 1 31 35.60 14.00 0.00 0.00 29.5 2 1 51.80 33.80 0.00 0.24 29.7 2 2 37.40 15.80 0.03 0.00 29.7 2 3 33.80 10.40 0.00 0.00 29.7 2 4 32.00 30.20 0.72 0.00 29.7 2 5 35.60 23.00 0.01 0.00 29.7 2 6 33.80 21.20 0.04 0.00 29.7 2 7 37.40 26.60 1.14 0.00 29.7 2 8 35.60 23.00 0.00 0.00 29.7 2 9 42.80 21.20 0.00 0.00 29.7 2 10 46.40 32.00 0.08 0.00 29.7 2 11 59.00 37.40 0.48 2.59 32.3 2 12 59.00 32.00 0.00 2.29 34.6 2 13 37.40 21.20 0.00 0.00 34.6 2 14 53.60 28.40 0.12 0.59 35.2 2 15 77.00 44.60 0.00 11.75 47.0 2 16 64.40 33.80 0.04 4.43 51.4 2 17 37.40 23.00 0.00 0.00 51.4 2 18 46.40 26.60 0.38 0.00 51.4 2 19 60.80 30.20 0.00 2.83 54.2 2 20 77.00 46.40 0.00 12.23 66.4 2 21 80.60 55.40 0.00 18.00 84.4 2 22 60.80 37.40 0.02 3.29 87.7 2 23 46.40 37.40 0.01 0.00 87.7 2 24 46.40 39.20 0.60 0.00 87.7 2 25 53.60 42.80 0.23 0.92 88.6 2 26 50.00 33.80 0.00 0.00 88.6 2 27 55.40 23.00 0.00 0.95 89.6 2 28 60.80 37.40 0.00 3.29 92.9 3 1 53.60 42.80 0.13 0.92 93.8 3 2 46.40 33.80 0.00 0.00 93.8 3 3 44.60 30.20 0.00 0.00 93.8 3 4 46.40 28.40 0.00 0.00 93.8 3 5 44.60 21.20 0.00 0.00 93.8 3 6 41.00 23.00 0.00 0.00 93.8 3 7 46.40 32.00 0.00 0.00 93.8 3 8 37.40 30.20 0.00 0.00 93.8 3 9 37.40 28.40 0.00 0.00 93.8 3 10 46.40 23.00 0.00 0.00 93.8 3 11 44.60 23.00 0.00 0.00 93.8 3 12 37.40 28.40 0.00 0.00 93.8 3 13 41.00 28.40 0.00 0.00 93.8 3 14 37.40 28.40 0.00 0.00 93.8 3 15 48.20 28.40 0.00 0.00 93.8 3 16 41.00 28.40 0.00 0.00 93.8 3 17 41.00 23.00 0.00 0.00 93.8 3 18 55.40 26.60 0.00 1.01 94.8 3 19 57.20 26.60 0.00 1.52 96.3 3 20 42.80 28.40 0.11 0.00 96.3 3 21 32.00 28.40 0.27 0.00 96.3 3 22 41.00 28.40 0.48 0.00 96.3 3 23 42.80 26.60 0.10 0.00 96.3 3 24 44.60 24.80 0.00 0.00 96.3 3 25 41.00 26.60 0.00 0.00 96.3 3 26 46.40 23.00 0.00 0.00 96.3 3 27 35.60 32.00 0.22 0.00 96.3 3 28 46.40 35.60 0.25 0.00 96.3 3 29 71.60 42.80 0.00 8.77 105.1 3 30 69.80 39.20 0.07 7.33 112.4 3 31 59.00 28.40 0.00 2.14 114.6 4 1 59.00 42.80 0.00 3.04 117.6 4 2 44.60 32.00 0.44 0.00 117.6 4 3 51.80 41.00 0.05 0.32 117.9 4 4 62.60 35.60 0.00 3.86 121.8 4 5 50.00 32.00 0.00 0.00 121.8 4 6 68.00 37.40 0.00 6.30 128.1 4 7 51.80 32.00 0.00 0.23 128.3 4 8 46.40 24.80 0.00 0.00 128.3 4 9 35.60 30.20 0.00 0.00 128.3 4 10 50.00 32.00 0.00 0.00 128.3 4 11 59.00 33.80 0.00 2.38 130.7 4 12 75.20 44.60 0.05 10.88 141.6 4 13 82.40 60.80 0.00 21.60 163.2 4 14 80.60 59.00 0.00 19.80 183.0 4 15 71.60 41.00 1.67 8.44 191.4 4 16 50.00 37.40 1.18 0.00 191.4 4 17 41.00 33.80 0.00 0.00 191.4 4 18 59.00 32.00 0.00 2.29 193.7 4 19 53.60 37.40 0.00 0.74 194.4 4 20 55.40 32.00 0.00 1.13 195.6 4 21 59.00 30.20 0.00 2.21 197.8 4 22 64.40 41.00 0.00 5.17 202.9 4 23 66.20 41.00 0.00 5.98 208.9 4 24 55.40 44.60 0.23 1.72 210.6 4 25 64.40 50.00 0.20 7.20 217.8 4 26 66.20 44.60 0.00 6.58 224.4 4 27 60.80 46.40 0.64 4.38 228.8 4 28 71.60 41.00 0.02 8.44 237.2 4 29 50.00 35.60 0.00 0.00 237.2 4 30 68.00 41.00 0.00 6.79 244.0 5 1 80.60 41.00 0.00 12.67 256.7 5 2 86.00 50.00 0.00 18.00 274.7 1st egg laying by ow females 5 3 89.60 62.60 0.00 25.93 300.6 5 4 86.00 62.60 0.00 24.30 324.9 5 5 69.80 50.00 0.60 9.90 334.8 5 6 57.20 50.00 0.75 3.60 338.4 5 7 69.80 44.60 0.00 8.29 346.7 5 8 73.40 46.40 0.00 10.47 357.2 5 9 77.00 46.40 0.00 12.23 369.4 5 10 78.80 55.40 0.06 17.10 386.5 5 11 77.00 51.80 0.00 14.40 400.9 5 12 89.60 51.80 0.00 20.56 421.5 5 13 78.80 59.00 0.85 18.90 440.4 5 14 82.40 59.00 1.01 20.70 461.1 5 15 87.80 60.80 1.95 24.30 485.4 5 16 71.60 62.60 2.94 17.10 502.5 5 17 66.20 60.80 2.16 13.50 516.0 Peak (ca. 50%) egg laying by ow females; 1st adult emerge 1st gen 5 18 64.40 53.60 1.12 9.00 525.0 5 19 64.40 50.00 1.02 7.20 532.2 5 20 84.20 59.00 0.00 21.60 553.8 5 21 78.80 59.00 0.00 18.90 572.7 1st egg laying by 1st gen females 5 22 77.00 62.60 0.23 19.80 592.5 5 23 77.00 55.40 0.00 16.20 608.7 5 24 78.80 3.00 0.00 7.86 616.5 5 25 84.20 53.60 0.00 18.90 635.4 5 26 86.00 68.00 0.31 27.00 662.4 5 27 80.60 68.00 0.00 24.30 686.7 5 28 73.40 62.60 0.06 18.00 704.7 5 29 80.60 62.60 0.00 21.60 726.3 5 30 77.00 62.60 0.02 19.80 746.1 5 31 78.80 66.20 1.56 22.50 768.6 Peak adult emerge 1st gen 6 1 86.00 62.60 3.18 24.30 792.9 6 2 77.00 66.20 0.33 21.60 814.5 6 3 68.00 55.40 4.89 11.70 826.2 6 4 73.40 53.60 0.00 13.50 839.7 6 5 77.00 51.80 0.00 14.40 854.1 6 6 66.20 51.80 0.00 9.00 863.1 6 7 77.00 48.20 0.00 12.79 875.9 6 8 80.60 55.40 0.00 18.00 893.9 6 9 82.40 62.60 2.30 22.50 916.4 6 10 71.60 60.80 0.14 16.20 932.6 6 11 60.80 55.40 1.65 8.10 940.7 6 12 73.40 55.40 0.00 14.40 955.1 6 13 82.40 62.60 0.00 22.50 977.6 6 14 80.60 60.80 0.00 20.70 998.3 Peak egg laying by 1st gen females; max 2+ gens. 6 15 78.80 55.40 0.00 17.10 1015.4 6 16 82.40 50.00 0.00 16.20 1031.6 6 17 82.40 64.40 0.00 23.40 1055.0 6 18 91.40 62.60 0.00 26.50 1081.5 6 19 87.80 71.60 0.90 29.70 1111.2 6 20 78.80 68.00 1.15 23.40 1134.6 6 21 77.00 68.00 0.00 22.50 1157.1 6 22 68.00 60.80 3.69 14.40 1171.5 6 23 77.00 60.80 1.12 18.90 1190.4 6 24 80.60 64.40 0.02 22.50 1212.9 6 25 80.00 60.80 0.00 20.40 1233.3 Px 6 26 78.40 59.00 0.00 18.70 1252.0 Px Peak adult emerge 2nd gen; max 3+ gens. 6 27 84.30 58.40 0.00 21.35 1273.4 PnHx 6 28 85.30 64.70 0.00 25.00 1298.4 Px Pn 6 29 86.00 66.50 0.00 26.25 1324.6 Pn 6 30 87.80 60.80 0.00 24.30 1348.9 7 1 89.60 66.20 0.00 27.72 1376.6 7 2 91.40 66.20 0.00 28.26 1404.9 7 3 91.40 68.00 0.00 29.14 1434.0 7 4 89.60 69.80 0.66 29.51 1463.6 7 5 87.80 68.00 0.00 27.90 1491.5 Peak egg laying by 2nd gen females; max 4+ gens. 7 6 82.40 68.00 0.02 25.20 1516.7 7 7 77.00 55.40 0.00 16.20 1532.9 7 8 78.80 50.00 0.00 14.40 1547.3 7 9 84.20 53.60 0.00 18.90 1566.2 7 10 89.60 62.60 0.00 25.93 1592.1 7 11 84.20 64.40 0.00 24.30 1616.4 7 12 82.40 60.80 0.00 21.60 1638.0 7 13 82.40 59.00 0.00 20.70 1658.7 7 14 87.80 62.60 0.00 25.20 1683.9 7 15 86.00 68.00 4.77 27.00 1710.9 7 16 87.80 62.60 0.00 25.20 1736.1 7 17 82.40 68.00 0.35 25.20 1761.3 Peak adult emerge 3rd gen; max 5 gens. 7 18 78.80 62.60 0.00 20.70 1782.0 7 19 80.60 59.00 0.00 19.80 1801.8 7 20 80.60 60.80 0.00 20.70 1822.5 7 21 73.40 60.80 1.48 17.10 1839.6 7 22 77.00 57.20 0.00 17.10 1856.7 7 23 78.80 68.00 0.47 23.40 1880.1 7 24 77.00 69.80 1.27 23.40 1903.5 7 25 77.00 68.00 0.91 22.50 1926.0 7 26 82.40 64.40 0.01 23.40 1949.4 7 27 86.00 64.40 0.04 25.20 1974.6 7 28 80.60 64.40 0.00 22.50 1997.1 Peak egg laying by 3rd gen females; max 6+ gens. 7 29 80.60 59.00 0.00 19.80 2016.9 7 30 77.00 62.60 1.35 19.80 2036.7 7 31 77.00 64.40 0.00 20.70 2057.4 8 1 86.00 66.20 0.70 26.10 2083.5 8 2 77.00 68.00 0.69 22.50 2106.0 8 3 77.00 66.20 2.57 21.60 2127.6 8 4 84.20 64.40 0.00 24.30 2151.9 8 5 86.00 64.40 0.00 25.20 2177.1 8 6 86.00 68.00 0.00 27.00 2204.1 8 7 82.40 68.00 0.81 25.20 2229.3 8 8 86.00 68.00 0.06 27.00 2256.3 Peak adult emerge 4th gen; max 6+ gens. 8 9 86.00 64.40 0.00 25.20 2281.5 8 10 84.20 64.40 0.00 24.30 2305.8 8 11 82.40 68.00 0.00 25.20 2331.0 8 12 78.80 64.40 0.10 21.60 2352.6 8 13 77.00 64.40 0.28 20.70 2373.3 8 14 80.60 59.00 0.23 19.80 2393.1 8 15 86.00 64.40 0.00 25.20 2418.3 8 16 87.80 62.60 0.00 25.20 2443.5 8 17 87.80 68.00 0.46 27.90 2471.4 8 18 78.80 68.00 0.23 23.40 2494.8 Peak egg laying by 4th gen females; max 7+ gens. 8 19 78.80 62.60 0.00 20.70 2515.5 8 20 73.40 66.20 0.00 19.80 2535.3 8 21 82.40 66.20 0.83 24.30 2559.6 8 22 78.80 64.40 0.02 21.60 2581.2 8 23 73.40 55.40 0.00 14.40 2595.6 8 24 78.80 51.80 0.00 15.30 2610.9 8 25 78.80 55.40 0.06 17.10 2628.0 8 26 84.20 60.80 0.00 22.50 2650.5 8 27 87.80 64.40 0.00 26.10 2676.6 8 28 89.60 68.00 0.00 28.61 2705.2 8 29 89.60 71.60 0.00 30.40 2735.6 Peak adult emerge 5th gen; max 8+ gens. 8 30 86.00 68.00 0.00 27.00 2762.6 8 31 86.00 68.00 0.00 27.00 2789.6 9 1 82.40 68.00 0.85 25.20 2814.8 9 2 86.00 66.20 0.00 26.10 2840.9 9 3 89.60 68.00 0.00 28.61 2869.5 9 4 89.60 68.00 0.00 28.61 2898.1 9 5 89.60 68.00 0.00 28.61 2926.7 9 6 89.60 69.80 0.39 29.51 2956.2 9 7 80.60 64.40 0.15 22.50 2978.7 Peak egg laying by 5th gen females; max 9+ gens. 9 8 68.00 55.40 0.41 11.70 2990.4 9 9 57.20 51.80 2.88 4.50 2994.9 9 10 62.60 55.40 0.35 9.00 3003.9 9 11 66.20 60.80 0.00 13.50 3017.4 9 12 71.60 62.60 0.00 17.10 3034.5 9 13 77.00 68.00 0.09 22.50 3057.0 9 14 71.60 68.00 0.02 19.80 3076.8 9 15 77.00 66.20 0.00 21.60 3098.4 9 16 77.00 62.60 0.00 19.80 3118.2 9 17 77.00 68.00 0.00 22.50 3140.7 9 18 80.60 64.40 0.00 22.50 3163.2 9 19 82.40 60.80 0.00 21.60 3184.8 9 20 78.80 59.00 0.00 18.90 3203.7 9 21 77.00 64.40 0.00 20.70 3224.4 9 22 73.40 59.00 0.00 16.20 3240.6 9 23 59.00 53.60 1.62 6.30 3246.9 9 24 60.80 57.20 0.70 9.00 3255.9 9 25 71.60 59.00 0.30 15.30 3271.2 9 26 80.60 64.40 1.12 22.50 3293.7 9 27 66.20 53.60 2.69 9.90 3303.6 9 28 73.40 51.80 0.10 12.60 3316.2 9 29 71.60 51.80 0.00 11.70 3327.9 9 30 71.60 50.00 0.00 10.80 3338.7 10 1 80.60 59.00 0.00 19.80 3358.5 10 2 78.80 62.60 0.00 20.70 3379.2 10 3 82.40 62.60 0.00 22.50 3401.7 10 4 86.00 59.00 0.00 22.50 3424.2 10 5 71.60 59.00 0.00 15.30 3439.5 10 6 77.00 60.80 0.00 18.90 3458.4 10 7 86.00 60.80 0.00 23.40 3481.8 10 8 82.40 62.60 0.00 22.50 3504.3 10 9 78.80 64.40 0.00 21.60 3525.9 10 10 78.80 60.80 0.00 19.80 3545.7 10 11 75.20 62.60 0.72 18.90 3564.6 10 12 60.80 46.40 0.00 4.38 3569.0 10 13 55.40 39.20 0.09 1.37 3570.4 10 14 53.60 37.40 0.00 0.74 3571.1 10 15 68.00 50.00 0.08 9.00 3580.1 10 16 59.00 46.40 0.00 3.54 3583.7 10 17 60.80 42.80 0.00 3.82 3587.5 10 18 53.60 35.60 0.00 0.70 3588.2 10 19 60.80 32.00 0.00 2.93 3591.1 10 20 64.40 44.60 0.00 5.73 3596.9 10 21 46.40 32.00 0.01 0.00 3596.9 10 22 55.40 28.40 0.00 1.05 3597.9 10 23 68.00 41.00 0.00 6.79 3604.7 10 24 51.80 32.00 0.00 0.23 3604.9 10 25 50.00 30.20 0.00 0.00 3604.9 10 26 44.60 35.60 0.63 0.00 3604.9 10 27 48.20 41.00 0.52 0.00 3604.9 10 28 53.60 44.60 0.03 1.01 3605.9 10 29 51.80 42.80 0.00 0.35 3606.3 10 30 60.80 37.40 0.00 3.29 3609.6 10 31 71.60 37.40 0.00 7.88 3617.5 11 1 73.40 55.40 0.00 14.40 3631.9 11 2 68.00 50.00 1.46 9.00 3640.9 11 3 51.80 35.60 0.00 0.26 3641.1 11 4 53.60 32.00 0.00 0.63 3641.7 11 5 50.00 44.60 0.63 0.00 3641.7 11 6 60.80 48.20 1.05 4.79 3646.5 11 7 59.00 44.60 0.00 3.26 3649.8 11 8 51.80 37.40 0.00 0.27 3650.1 11 9 41.00 37.40 0.75 0.00 3650.1 11 10 42.80 28.40 0.00 0.00 3650.1 11 11 42.80 21.20 0.00 0.00 3650.1 11 12 44.60 28.40 0.44 0.00 3650.1 11 13 42.80 35.60 0.41 0.00 3650.1 11 14 37.40 32.00 0.00 0.00 3650.1 11 15 32.00 28.40 0.05 0.00 3650.1 11 16 44.60 32.00 2.18 0.00 3650.1 11 17 44.60 30.20 0.00 0.00 3650.1 11 18 44.60 28.40 0.00 0.00 3650.1 11 19 59.00 35.60 0.00 2.47 3652.6 11 20 46.40 35.60 0.00 0.00 3652.6 11 21 48.20 28.40 0.00 0.00 3652.6 11 22 35.60 26.60 0.00 0.00 3652.6 11 23 33.80 26.60 0.00 0.00 3652.6 11 24 33.80 28.40 1.72 0.00 3652.6 11 25 59.00 32.00 0.00 2.29 3654.8 11 26 51.80 39.20 0.11 0.29 3655.1 11 27 37.40 32.00 0.00 0.00 3655.1 11 28 32.00 28.40 0.00 0.00 3655.1 11 29 35.60 26.60 0.00 0.00 3655.1 11 30 37.40 30.20 0.00 0.00 3655.1 12 1 37.40 28.40 0.10 0.00 3655.1 12 2 55.40 37.40 0.00 1.30 3656.4 12 3 51.80 37.40 0.00 0.27 3656.7 12 4 41.00 32.00 0.00 0.00 3656.7 12 5 33.80 30.20 0.00 0.00 3656.7 12 6 41.00 32.00 0.00 0.00 3656.7 12 7 37.40 21.20 0.00 0.00 3656.7 12 8 32.00 17.60 0.00 0.00 3656.7 12 9 28.40 24.80 0.00 0.00 3656.7 12 10 35.60 15.80 0.00 0.00 3656.7 12 11 42.80 14.00 0.00 0.00 3656.7 12 12 41.00 26.60 0.00 0.00 3656.7 12 13 46.40 26.60 0.00 0.00 3656.7 12 14 37.40 28.40 0.42 0.00 3656.7 12 15 46.40 37.40 2.66 0.00 3656.7 12 16 44.60 37.40 0.30 0.00 3656.7 12 17 51.80 37.40 0.00 0.27 3657.0 12 18 41.00 26.60 0.00 0.00 3657.0 12 19 44.60 21.20 0.00 0.00 3657.0 12 20 35.60 24.80 0.62 0.00 3657.0 12 21 60.80 35.60 1.15 3.15 3660.1 12 22 42.80 35.60 0.01 0.00 3660.1 12 23 41.00 26.60 0.06 0.00 3660.1 12 24 42.80 33.80 0.02 0.00 3660.1 12 25 33.80 23.00 0.00 0.00 3660.1 12 26 44.60 21.20 0.00 0.00 3660.1 12 27 46.40 23.00 0.00 0.00 3660.1 12 28 51.80 37.40 1.10 0.27 3660.4 12 29 51.80 33.80 0.00 0.24 3660.6 12 30 44.60 28.40 0.00 0.00 3660.6 12 31 42.80 28.40 0.60 0.00 3660.6 Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 KOKV PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021