   |
|
invasive insect model of OSU OIPMC model analysis vers. 3.0 |
|
Output from uspest.org/wea invasive insect degree-day/phenology model program: Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================ Model species/general links: spotted wing Drosophila [fruit] Type: invasive insect Model source/other links: OSU OIPMC model analysis vers. 3.0 Calculation method: single sine Lower threshold: 50 degrees Fahrenheit Upper threshold: 88 degrees Fahrenheit Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1 No ending date, set to: default date 12 31 Model validation status: partly validated-has been compared to 2 years of field data in PNW Region of known use: potential for use in US ==============================EVENTS TABLE================================ 1. 261 DDs after Jan 1: 1st egg laying by ow females 2. 510 DDs after Jan 1: Peak (ca. 50%) egg laying by ow females; 1st adult emerge 1st gen 3. 565 DDs after Jan 1: 1st egg laying by 1st gen females 4. 755 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 1st gen 5. 995 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 1st gen females; max 2+ gens. 6. 1249 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 2nd gen; max 3+ gens. 7. 1489 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 2nd gen females; max 4+ gens. 8. 1743 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 3rd gen; max 5 gens. 9. 1983 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 3rd gen females; max 6+ gens. 10. 2237 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 4th gen; max 6+ gens. 11. 2477 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 4th gen females; max 7+ gens. 12. 2731 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 5th gen; max 8+ gens. 13. 2971 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 5th gen females; max 9+ gens. ==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================ Weather station: 2018 KITH METAR Ithaca Tompkins Reg Ap NY Lat:42.4906 Long:-76.4581 Elev:1099 mn day max min precip DD50 CUMDD50 event -- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- ------- 1 1 14.00 3.20 0.04 0.00 0.0 * START * 1 2 21.20 3.20 0.04 0.00 0.0 1 3 24.80 1.40 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 4 19.40 6.80 0.03 0.00 0.0 1 5 5.00 -0.90 0.04 0.00 0.0 1 6 3.20 -2.20 0.02 0.00 0.0 1 7 19.40 -2.90 0.03 0.00 0.0 1 8 37.40 19.00 0.01 0.00 0.0 1 9 36.00 28.00 0.03 0.00 0.0 1 10 39.20 19.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 11 55.90 37.00 0.00 1.45 1.4 1 12 62.60 26.10 0.41 3.26 4.7 1 13 23.00 8.10 0.05 0.00 4.7 1 14 14.00 -7.60 0.07 0.00 4.7 1 15 21.20 -5.80 0.05 0.00 4.7 1 16 28.40 21.00 0.03 0.00 4.7 1 17 25.00 -2.00 0.01 0.00 4.7 1 18 21.90 -2.90 0.00 0.00 4.7 1 19 36.00 8.60 0.00 0.00 4.7 1 20 43.00 21.20 0.00 0.00 4.7 1 21 42.80 17.60 0.01 0.00 4.7 1 22 46.40 35.60 0.02 0.00 4.7 1 23 51.80 33.10 0.18 0.24 5.0 1 24 35.60 15.10 0.02 0.00 5.0 1 25 23.00 14.00 0.02 0.00 5.0 1 26 39.20 12.20 0.00 0.00 5.0 1 27 51.80 32.00 0.01 0.23 5.2 1 28 45.00 24.10 0.00 0.00 5.2 1 29 36.00 19.40 0.00 0.00 5.2 1 30 24.80 12.00 0.03 0.00 5.2 1 31 28.00 3.00 0.01 0.00 5.2 2 1 44.60 21.00 0.01 0.00 5.2 2 2 23.00 3.00 0.02 0.00 5.2 2 3 27.00 3.00 0.00 0.00 5.2 2 4 30.90 26.10 0.03 0.00 5.2 2 5 32.00 8.10 0.20 0.00 5.2 2 6 28.40 10.40 0.01 0.00 5.2 2 7 27.00 10.40 0.18 0.00 5.2 2 8 25.00 14.00 0.02 0.00 5.2 2 9 30.00 3.00 0.02 0.00 5.2 2 10 39.90 27.00 0.04 0.00 5.2 2 11 46.40 24.80 0.07 0.00 5.2 2 12 33.80 21.00 0.01 0.00 5.2 2 13 34.00 15.80 0.02 0.00 5.2 2 14 48.90 30.00 0.00 0.00 5.2 2 15 62.60 39.20 0.25 4.19 9.4 2 16 51.80 21.20 2.09 0.19 9.6 2 17 32.00 14.00 0.01 0.00 9.6 2 18 36.00 26.10 0.14 0.00 9.6 2 19 44.10 30.00 0.15 0.00 9.6 2 20 69.80 42.80 0.00 7.92 17.5 2 21 69.80 33.10 0.01 6.58 24.1 2 22 37.40 30.00 0.36 0.00 24.1 2 23 41.00 30.00 0.55 0.00 24.1 2 24 43.00 33.80 0.00 0.00 24.1 2 25 46.90 35.10 0.90 0.00 24.1 2 26 48.20 30.00 0.00 0.00 24.1 2 27 55.40 19.40 0.00 0.90 25.0 2 28 57.90 28.40 0.00 1.79 26.8 3 1 50.00 33.10 2.33 0.00 26.8 3 2 37.40 26.60 0.01 0.00 26.8 3 3 30.90 26.60 0.02 0.00 26.8 3 4 30.90 21.00 0.00 0.00 26.8 3 5 28.40 19.00 0.01 0.00 26.8 3 6 42.10 19.40 0.10 0.00 26.8 3 7 36.00 30.00 0.04 0.00 26.8 3 8 32.00 23.00 0.01 0.00 26.8 3 9 34.00 23.00 0.21 0.00 26.8 3 10 30.90 24.80 0.03 0.00 26.8 3 11 32.00 23.00 0.02 0.00 26.8 3 12 35.10 15.80 0.14 0.00 26.8 3 13 30.90 24.10 0.05 0.00 26.8 3 14 28.90 24.80 0.05 0.00 26.8 3 15 35.60 23.00 0.02 0.00 26.8 3 16 28.90 19.40 0.04 0.00 26.8 3 17 35.60 15.10 0.00 0.00 26.8 3 18 36.00 3.20 0.00 0.00 26.8 3 19 27.00 12.20 0.00 0.00 26.8 3 20 36.00 3.00 0.06 0.00 26.8 3 21 35.60 17.60 0.00 0.00 26.8 3 22 37.40 23.00 0.00 0.00 26.8 3 23 35.60 24.80 0.00 0.00 26.8 3 24 34.00 15.10 0.00 0.00 26.8 3 25 43.00 14.00 0.00 0.00 26.8 3 26 46.90 19.00 0.00 0.00 26.8 3 27 39.90 33.10 0.43 0.00 26.8 3 28 44.60 33.80 0.01 0.00 26.8 3 29 53.60 41.00 0.89 0.84 27.6 3 30 44.60 30.90 0.03 0.00 27.6 3 31 53.60 19.40 0.05 0.50 28.1 4 1 50.00 28.00 0.43 0.00 28.1 4 2 45.00 24.10 0.00 0.00 28.1 4 3 42.10 28.40 0.25 0.00 28.1 4 4 53.60 37.40 0.72 0.74 28.8 4 5 34.00 18.00 0.03 0.00 28.8 4 6 46.40 17.10 0.01 0.00 28.8 4 7 35.10 21.20 0.18 0.00 28.8 4 8 32.00 15.10 0.03 0.00 28.8 4 9 39.90 15.80 0.00 0.00 28.8 4 10 39.20 24.10 0.04 0.00 28.8 4 11 46.40 21.20 0.01 0.00 28.8 4 12 59.00 24.80 0.07 2.02 30.8 4 13 63.00 37.00 0.00 4.14 35.0 4 14 41.00 35.10 0.02 0.00 35.0 4 15 39.90 30.20 0.16 0.00 35.0 4 16 50.00 33.80 0.60 0.00 35.0 4 17 36.00 28.40 0.03 0.00 35.0 4 18 39.90 30.00 0.06 0.00 35.0 4 19 35.60 28.40 0.01 0.00 35.0 4 20 42.80 26.60 0.01 0.00 35.0 4 21 53.60 21.00 0.00 0.51 35.5 4 22 60.80 23.00 0.00 2.53 38.0 4 23 71.60 28.40 0.00 6.88 44.9 4 24 70.00 46.40 0.10 8.81 53.7 4 25 57.20 46.40 0.10 2.72 56.4 4 26 57.90 36.00 0.00 2.10 58.5 4 27 59.00 35.60 0.05 2.47 61.0 4 28 59.00 37.90 0.02 2.62 63.6 4 29 43.00 32.00 0.05 0.00 63.6 4 30 62.60 37.00 0.00 3.97 67.6 5 1 78.80 30.20 0.00 10.12 77.7 5 2 87.80 46.40 0.00 17.55 95.3 5 3 82.40 60.80 0.23 21.60 116.9 5 4 81.00 50.00 0.11 15.50 132.4 5 5 75.20 39.20 0.00 9.79 142.2 5 6 66.90 51.80 0.02 9.35 151.5 5 7 63.00 39.00 0.01 4.33 155.8 5 8 77.00 37.40 0.00 10.32 166.2 5 9 80.60 48.20 0.00 14.58 180.7 5 10 75.90 54.00 0.16 14.95 195.7 5 11 57.20 41.00 0.00 2.14 197.8 5 12 50.00 42.80 0.13 0.00 197.8 5 13 57.20 39.00 0.00 2.01 199.8 5 14 78.10 51.80 0.00 14.95 214.8 5 15 73.90 48.90 2.50 11.50 226.3 5 16 68.00 46.40 0.00 7.83 234.1 5 17 79.00 53.10 0.00 16.05 250.2 5 18 71.60 46.00 0.00 9.48 259.7 5 19 61.00 48.00 0.17 4.84 264.5 1st egg laying by ow females 5 20 64.40 51.80 0.02 8.10 272.6 1st egg laying by ow females 5 21 73.90 42.80 0.08 9.86 282.5 5 22 68.00 55.00 1.14 11.50 294.0 5 23 75.90 55.00 0.45 15.45 309.4 5 24 78.80 46.40 0.00 13.11 322.5 5 25 82.90 48.20 0.00 15.72 338.2 5 26 82.90 53.10 0.04 18.00 356.2 5 27 68.00 62.10 0.10 15.05 371.3 5 28 84.20 60.80 0.19 22.50 393.8 5 29 82.40 59.00 0.00 20.70 414.5 5 30 86.00 59.00 0.00 22.50 437.0 5 31 79.00 64.40 0.00 21.70 458.7 6 1 86.00 66.00 0.13 26.00 484.7 6 2 68.00 52.00 0.10 10.00 494.7 6 3 70.00 51.10 0.04 10.55 505.2 6 4 69.80 50.00 0.09 9.90 515.1 Peak (ca. 50%) egg laying by ow females; 1st adult emerge 1st gen 6 5 61.00 50.00 0.02 5.50 520.6 6 6 61.00 46.40 0.17 4.48 525.1 6 7 73.40 46.40 0.00 10.47 535.6 6 8 75.90 48.90 0.00 12.49 548.1 6 9 72.00 46.40 0.00 9.78 557.9 6 10 72.00 53.10 0.00 12.55 570.4 1st egg laying by 1st gen females 6 11 75.20 50.00 0.00 12.60 583.0 6 12 77.00 50.00 0.00 13.50 596.5 6 13 80.60 60.80 0.00 20.70 617.2 6 14 73.90 55.00 0.00 14.45 631.7 6 15 75.20 48.20 0.00 11.90 643.6 6 16 81.00 48.00 0.00 14.71 658.3 6 17 88.00 55.00 0.00 21.50 679.8 6 18 93.20 68.00 0.02 29.58 709.3 6 19 73.90 55.40 0.13 14.65 724.0 6 20 73.40 51.80 0.00 12.60 736.6 6 21 73.90 48.00 0.00 11.19 747.8 6 22 75.90 42.80 0.06 10.81 758.6 Peak adult emerge 1st gen 6 23 73.40 60.10 0.12 16.75 775.3 6 24 72.00 57.20 0.49 14.60 789.9 6 25 70.00 46.40 0.21 8.81 798.7 6 26 75.40 42.10 0.00 10.42 809.2 Px 6 27 124.60 53.40 0.00 27.16 836.3 Px Pn 6 28 78.20 58.90 0.00 18.55 854.9 Px Pn 6 29 84.20 57.00 0.00 20.60 875.5 6 30 91.90 60.10 0.00 25.41 900.9 7 1 93.90 64.40 0.00 28.01 928.9 7 2 93.90 69.10 3.13 30.25 959.2 7 3 86.00 62.60 0.03 24.30 983.5 7 4 90.00 60.10 0.00 24.83 1008.3 Peak egg laying by 1st gen females; max 2+ gens. 7 5 88.00 71.10 0.16 29.55 1037.8 7 6 78.80 55.00 1.33 16.90 1054.7 7 7 77.00 46.40 0.00 12.23 1067.0 7 8 84.20 52.00 0.00 18.10 1085.1 7 9 87.80 53.10 0.00 20.45 1105.5 7 10 86.00 55.40 0.00 20.70 1126.2 7 11 78.10 51.80 0.00 14.95 1141.2 7 12 81.00 48.20 0.00 14.78 1155.9 7 13 86.00 55.40 0.00 20.70 1176.6 7 14 90.00 69.10 0.00 29.28 1205.9 7 15 89.10 64.40 0.00 26.65 1232.6 7 16 93.90 66.00 1.27 28.77 1261.3 Peak adult emerge 2nd gen; max 3+ gens. 7 17 81.00 57.00 3.71 19.00 1280.3 7 18 73.90 48.20 0.00 11.25 1291.6 7 19 81.00 46.00 0.00 14.08 1305.7 7 20 84.20 53.10 0.00 18.65 1324.3 7 21 78.10 62.10 0.18 20.10 1344.4 7 22 84.20 60.10 3.32 22.15 1366.6 7 23 77.00 69.80 0.50 23.40 1390.0 7 24 77.00 71.10 0.93 24.05 1414.0 7 25 73.90 66.00 1.11 19.95 1434.0 7 26 84.20 64.00 0.53 24.10 1458.1 7 27 79.00 62.60 0.01 20.80 1478.9 7 28 79.00 57.20 0.11 18.10 1497.0 Peak egg laying by 2nd gen females; max 4+ gens. 7 29 77.00 55.40 0.00 16.20 1513.2 7 30 75.90 57.00 0.00 16.45 1529.6 7 31 79.00 60.80 0.00 19.90 1549.5 8 1 81.00 69.80 0.01 25.40 1574.9 8 2 80.60 66.20 0.09 23.40 1598.3 8 3 75.20 66.00 0.01 20.60 1618.9 8 4 84.20 61.00 0.00 22.60 1641.5 8 5 88.00 60.80 0.00 24.40 1665.9 8 6 90.00 64.40 0.00 26.96 1692.9 8 7 82.40 66.20 0.01 24.30 1717.2 8 8 82.40 66.00 0.97 24.20 1741.4 8 9 79.00 62.10 0.00 20.55 1761.9 Peak adult emerge 3rd gen; max 5 gens. 8 10 78.80 60.10 0.06 19.45 1781.4 8 11 75.90 62.10 0.26 19.00 1800.4 8 12 80.60 59.00 0.02 19.80 1820.2 8 13 71.60 63.00 0.47 17.30 1837.5 8 14 70.00 66.00 0.18 18.00 1855.5 8 15 84.20 59.00 0.13 21.60 1877.1 8 16 86.00 62.10 0.25 24.05 1901.1 8 17 84.20 66.00 0.37 25.10 1926.2 8 18 72.00 62.10 0.11 17.05 1943.3 8 19 77.00 60.10 0.00 18.55 1961.8 8 20 77.00 60.10 0.00 18.55 1980.4 8 21 72.00 64.40 0.19 18.20 1998.6 Peak egg laying by 3rd gen females; max 6+ gens. 8 22 75.20 60.80 0.16 18.00 2016.6 8 23 73.90 48.20 0.15 11.25 2027.8 8 24 80.60 51.10 0.00 15.85 2043.7 8 25 78.80 57.00 0.00 17.90 2061.6 8 26 82.40 62.60 0.00 22.50 2084.1 8 27 84.90 62.10 0.00 23.50 2107.6 8 28 89.60 71.10 0.01 30.15 2137.7 8 29 89.60 68.00 2.09 28.61 2166.4 8 30 73.90 55.00 0.02 14.45 2180.8 8 31 73.90 55.00 0.00 14.45 2195.3 9 1 75.20 64.40 0.00 19.80 2215.1 9 2 84.90 69.10 0.00 27.00 2242.1 Peak adult emerge 4th gen; max 6+ gens. 9 3 88.00 66.20 0.00 27.10 2269.2 9 4 84.90 64.40 0.00 24.65 2293.8 9 5 91.40 66.00 0.00 28.16 2322.0 9 6 80.60 63.00 0.00 21.80 2343.8 9 7 73.90 54.00 0.00 13.95 2357.7 9 8 62.60 48.00 0.00 5.62 2363.3 9 9 57.90 48.00 0.00 3.34 2366.7 9 10 57.90 46.00 1.48 2.97 2369.7 9 11 71.60 57.00 0.17 14.30 2384.0 9 12 75.90 57.20 0.00 16.55 2400.5 9 13 84.20 64.40 0.01 24.30 2424.8 9 14 82.40 64.40 0.00 23.40 2448.2 9 15 82.90 66.00 0.00 24.45 2472.7 9 16 84.90 62.10 0.00 23.50 2496.2 Peak egg laying by 4th gen females; max 7+ gens. 9 17 75.90 60.80 0.89 18.35 2514.5 9 18 80.60 60.10 3.69 20.35 2534.9 9 19 71.60 50.00 0.00 10.80 2545.7 9 20 73.90 46.40 0.00 10.71 2556.4 9 21 75.20 64.40 0.13 19.80 2576.2 9 22 69.80 46.40 0.00 8.71 2584.9 9 23 64.90 42.10 0.00 5.55 2590.4 9 24 69.80 45.00 0.82 8.37 2598.8 9 25 66.90 51.80 0.02 9.35 2608.1 9 26 73.90 53.10 0.26 13.50 2621.6 9 27 61.00 44.10 0.20 4.09 2625.7 9 28 69.80 51.10 1.27 10.45 2636.2 9 29 63.00 42.10 0.00 4.70 2640.9 9 30 57.90 39.20 0.01 2.29 2643.2 10 1 57.90 52.00 0.03 4.95 2648.1 10 2 69.80 51.80 2.15 10.80 2658.9 10 3 62.60 53.10 0.16 7.85 2666.8 10 4 69.80 46.40 1.21 8.71 2675.5 10 5 63.00 39.20 0.00 4.35 2679.8 10 6 73.90 51.80 0.73 12.85 2692.7 10 7 70.00 53.60 1.39 11.80 2704.5 10 8 78.80 53.60 0.00 16.20 2720.7 10 9 80.60 66.20 0.00 23.40 2744.1 Peak adult emerge 5th gen; max 8+ gens. 10 10 79.00 64.40 0.00 21.70 2765.8 10 11 73.40 54.00 0.39 13.70 2779.5 10 12 55.40 44.10 0.12 1.68 2781.2 10 13 50.00 39.90 0.07 0.00 2781.2 10 14 57.90 37.00 0.02 2.15 2783.3 10 15 60.80 41.00 0.07 3.61 2786.9 10 16 50.00 35.10 0.00 0.00 2786.9 10 17 48.90 35.60 0.09 0.00 2786.9 10 18 43.00 26.60 0.44 0.00 2786.9 10 19 63.00 26.10 0.00 3.41 2790.3 10 20 54.00 39.90 0.43 0.93 2791.3 10 21 41.00 32.00 0.34 0.00 2791.3 10 22 48.20 35.10 0.00 0.00 2791.3 10 23 54.00 39.90 0.14 0.93 2792.2 10 24 39.90 35.60 0.02 0.00 2792.2 10 25 39.90 30.00 0.01 0.00 2792.2 10 26 46.90 33.10 0.18 0.00 2792.2 10 27 39.90 35.60 0.79 0.00 2792.2 10 28 44.60 37.00 0.31 0.00 2792.2 10 29 44.60 39.00 0.06 0.00 2792.2 10 30 50.00 30.20 0.01 0.00 2792.2 10 31 62.60 30.20 0.13 3.48 2795.7 11 1 50.00 44.10 0.35 0.00 2795.7 11 2 63.00 43.00 0.17 4.83 2800.5 11 3 44.60 39.00 0.09 0.00 2800.5 11 4 50.00 28.00 0.00 0.00 2800.5 11 5 48.90 42.10 0.04 0.00 2800.5 11 6 59.00 44.10 0.12 3.20 2803.7 11 7 57.20 37.40 0.01 1.92 2805.6 11 8 44.60 37.00 0.00 0.00 2805.6 11 9 41.00 28.00 0.32 0.00 2805.6 11 10 41.00 26.10 0.01 0.00 2805.6 11 11 39.00 24.80 0.00 0.00 2805.6 11 12 45.00 23.00 0.26 0.00 2805.6 11 13 37.40 28.00 2.51 0.00 2805.6 11 14 28.90 17.60 0.00 0.00 2805.6 11 15 28.40 19.40 0.00 0.00 2805.6 11 16 36.00 26.10 0.70 0.00 2805.6 11 17 37.40 30.20 0.02 0.00 2805.6 11 18 34.00 28.00 0.13 0.00 2805.6 11 19 39.20 32.00 0.11 0.00 2805.6 11 20 36.00 28.00 0.01 0.00 2805.6 11 21 33.80 14.00 0.01 0.00 2805.6 11 22 16.00 -2.20 0.03 0.00 2805.6 11 23 28.40 -2.90 0.00 0.00 2805.6 11 24 41.00 21.20 0.14 0.00 2805.6 11 25 42.80 33.10 0.01 0.00 2805.6 11 26 43.00 30.20 0.56 0.00 2805.6 11 27 37.40 28.40 0.06 0.00 2805.6 11 28 32.00 28.00 0.02 0.00 2805.6 11 29 34.00 30.20 0.11 0.00 2805.6 11 30 35.60 30.00 0.11 0.00 2805.6 12 1 37.00 30.20 0.19 0.00 2805.6 12 2 48.90 35.60 0.06 0.00 2805.6 12 3 46.40 28.90 0.05 0.00 2805.6 12 4 30.20 14.00 0.19 0.00 2805.6 12 5 30.90 10.00 0.00 0.00 2805.6 12 6 35.60 17.60 0.06 0.00 2805.6 12 7 30.20 15.10 0.03 0.00 2805.6 12 8 28.90 14.00 0.01 0.00 2805.6 12 9 34.00 6.80 0.00 0.00 2805.6 12 10 30.90 24.80 0.00 0.00 2805.6 12 11 30.90 26.10 0.01 0.00 2805.6 12 12 33.80 26.10 0.12 0.00 2805.6 12 13 37.40 28.40 0.02 0.00 2805.6 12 14 48.20 33.10 0.00 0.00 2805.6 12 15 42.80 30.00 0.00 0.00 2805.6 12 16 37.40 30.00 0.08 0.00 2805.6 12 17 36.00 28.00 0.01 0.00 2805.6 12 18 28.40 10.40 0.02 0.00 2805.6 12 19 41.00 10.40 0.00 0.00 2805.6 12 20 46.90 26.10 0.28 0.00 2805.6 12 21 62.60 37.00 1.04 3.97 2809.6 12 22 33.80 28.00 0.33 0.00 2809.6 12 23 34.00 26.60 0.14 0.00 2809.6 12 24 34.00 28.40 0.76 0.00 2809.6 12 25 30.90 24.10 0.02 0.00 2809.6 12 26 34.00 26.60 0.02 0.00 2809.6 12 27 37.90 28.00 0.07 0.00 2809.6 12 28 50.00 35.60 0.02 0.00 2809.6 12 29 48.20 24.10 0.01 0.00 2809.6 12 30 35.60 24.10 0.13 0.00 2809.6 12 31 41.00 23.00 2.35 0.00 2809.6 Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 KITH PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021