   |
|
invasive insect model of OSU OIPMC model analysis vers. 3.0 |
|
Output from uspest.org/wea invasive insect degree-day/phenology model program: Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================ Model species/general links: spotted wing Drosophila [fruit] Type: invasive insect Model source/other links: OSU OIPMC model analysis vers. 3.0 Calculation method: single sine Lower threshold: 50 degrees Fahrenheit Upper threshold: 88 degrees Fahrenheit Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1 No ending date, set to: default date 12 31 Model validation status: partly validated-has been compared to 2 years of field data in PNW Region of known use: potential for use in US ==============================EVENTS TABLE================================ 1. 261 DDs after Jan 1: 1st egg laying by ow females 2. 510 DDs after Jan 1: Peak (ca. 50%) egg laying by ow females; 1st adult emerge 1st gen 3. 565 DDs after Jan 1: 1st egg laying by 1st gen females 4. 755 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 1st gen 5. 995 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 1st gen females; max 2+ gens. 6. 1249 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 2nd gen; max 3+ gens. 7. 1489 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 2nd gen females; max 4+ gens. 8. 1743 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 3rd gen; max 5 gens. 9. 1983 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 3rd gen females; max 6+ gens. 10. 2237 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 4th gen; max 6+ gens. 11. 2477 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 4th gen females; max 7+ gens. 12. 2731 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 5th gen; max 8+ gens. 13. 2971 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 5th gen females; max 9+ gens. ==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================ Weather station: 2018 KFLD METAR Fond Du Lac Co Apt WI Lat:43.7700 Long:-88.4864 Elev:807 mn day max min precip DD50 CUMDD50 event -- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- ------- 1 1 3.20 -11.20 0.00 0.00 0.0 * START * 1 2 14.00 -4.00 0.01 0.00 0.0 1 3 12.90 -0.40 0.13 0.00 0.0 1 4 9.00 -11.90 0.16 0.00 0.0 1 5 9.00 -5.80 0.02 0.00 0.0 1 6 10.90 -11.90 0.09 0.00 0.0 1 7 30.90 10.00 0.01 0.00 0.0 1 8 39.90 18.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 9 41.00 17.10 0.08 0.00 0.0 1 10 50.00 30.00 0.03 0.00 0.0 1 11 52.00 21.20 0.24 0.22 0.2 1 12 24.80 7.00 0.03 0.00 0.2 1 13 10.90 -2.00 0.00 0.00 0.2 1 14 18.00 -4.00 0.01 0.00 0.2 1 15 23.00 17.10 0.01 0.00 0.2 1 16 21.20 10.40 0.01 0.00 0.2 1 17 21.90 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.2 1 18 30.90 17.60 0.00 0.00 0.2 1 19 37.90 24.10 0.00 0.00 0.2 1 20 45.00 30.00 0.00 0.00 0.2 1 21 37.90 23.00 0.34 0.00 0.2 1 22 39.20 30.20 0.37 0.00 0.2 1 23 30.90 25.00 0.06 0.00 0.2 1 24 26.60 19.00 0.00 0.00 0.2 1 25 39.20 17.60 0.00 0.00 0.2 1 26 46.40 30.00 0.01 0.00 0.2 1 27 44.60 30.90 0.00 0.00 0.2 1 28 30.20 23.00 0.02 0.00 0.2 1 29 24.80 12.20 0.03 0.00 0.2 1 30 28.90 6.10 0.08 0.00 0.2 1 31 39.90 28.40 0.01 0.00 0.2 2 1 33.80 1.40 0.01 0.00 0.2 2 2 17.60 -0.90 0.00 0.00 0.2 2 3 27.00 15.10 0.19 0.00 0.2 2 4 16.00 -4.00 0.17 0.00 0.2 2 5 10.90 -11.90 0.02 0.00 0.2 2 6 12.20 -7.60 0.01 0.00 0.2 2 7 15.80 1.40 0.15 0.00 0.2 2 8 19.40 1.00 0.01 0.00 0.2 2 9 17.60 -9.90 0.17 0.00 0.2 2 10 17.60 -0.90 0.04 0.00 0.2 2 11 23.00 8.60 0.01 0.00 0.2 2 12 17.60 1.40 0.35 0.00 0.2 2 13 30.20 1.00 0.04 0.00 0.2 2 14 43.00 23.00 0.00 0.00 0.2 2 15 45.00 33.10 0.00 0.00 0.2 2 16 34.00 16.00 0.06 0.00 0.2 2 17 28.40 15.80 0.01 0.00 0.2 2 18 37.90 12.20 0.00 0.00 0.2 2 19 43.00 33.10 0.18 0.00 0.2 2 20 39.00 26.10 0.26 0.00 0.2 2 21 27.00 19.00 0.00 0.00 0.2 2 22 35.60 19.40 0.06 0.00 0.2 2 23 37.90 30.20 0.01 0.00 0.2 2 24 37.90 26.10 0.26 0.00 0.2 2 25 37.90 28.00 1.01 0.00 0.2 2 26 46.90 26.60 0.00 0.00 0.2 2 27 55.90 37.90 0.00 1.49 1.7 2 28 48.20 33.10 0.00 0.00 1.7 3 1 37.90 28.00 0.01 0.00 1.7 3 2 45.00 21.20 0.00 0.00 1.7 3 3 43.00 26.60 0.04 0.00 1.7 3 4 43.00 28.40 0.03 0.00 1.7 3 5 35.60 30.00 0.03 0.00 1.7 3 6 34.00 25.00 0.02 0.00 1.7 3 7 27.00 17.60 0.35 0.00 1.7 3 8 30.20 14.00 0.23 0.00 1.7 3 9 36.00 17.60 0.00 0.00 1.7 3 10 37.40 14.00 0.00 0.00 1.7 3 11 42.80 19.00 0.01 0.00 1.7 3 12 44.10 28.40 0.20 0.00 1.7 3 13 30.90 19.90 0.01 0.00 1.7 3 14 48.90 19.40 0.00 0.00 1.7 3 15 42.80 21.00 0.00 0.00 1.7 3 16 37.90 17.60 0.00 0.00 1.7 3 17 48.20 19.00 0.00 0.00 1.7 3 18 55.90 28.00 0.00 1.18 2.9 3 19 44.10 26.10 0.00 0.00 2.9 3 20 36.00 21.20 0.00 0.00 2.9 3 21 37.90 19.00 0.00 0.00 2.9 3 22 43.00 15.80 0.00 0.00 2.9 3 23 43.00 15.80 0.00 0.00 2.9 3 24 39.90 21.00 0.00 0.00 2.9 3 25 41.00 15.80 0.00 0.00 2.9 3 26 48.90 24.80 0.37 0.00 2.9 3 27 46.00 32.00 0.40 0.00 2.9 3 28 55.90 24.10 0.01 1.10 4.0 3 29 48.20 28.00 0.00 0.00 4.0 3 30 46.90 21.90 0.00 0.00 4.0 3 31 44.60 23.00 0.22 0.00 4.0 4 1 35.10 15.80 0.00 0.00 4.0 4 2 39.90 16.00 0.01 0.00 4.0 4 3 35.60 28.00 0.09 0.00 4.0 4 4 30.90 19.90 0.11 0.00 4.0 4 5 39.90 14.00 0.01 0.00 4.0 4 6 34.00 18.00 0.14 0.00 4.0 4 7 34.00 14.00 0.00 0.00 4.0 4 8 37.40 10.40 0.01 0.00 4.0 4 9 39.90 26.60 0.01 0.00 4.0 4 10 41.00 26.10 0.00 0.00 4.0 4 11 52.00 32.00 0.10 0.27 4.3 4 12 50.00 36.00 0.01 0.00 4.3 4 13 39.20 35.10 1.04 0.00 4.3 4 14 34.00 26.60 7.09 0.00 4.3 4 15 28.40 24.80 0.22 0.00 4.3 4 16 34.00 24.80 0.24 0.00 4.3 4 17 37.40 23.00 0.00 0.00 4.3 4 18 35.60 30.20 0.16 0.00 4.3 4 19 48.20 21.20 0.01 0.00 4.3 4 20 52.00 21.00 0.00 0.22 4.5 4 21 53.60 26.60 0.00 0.57 5.0 4 22 57.90 28.00 0.00 1.77 6.8 4 23 63.00 32.00 0.00 3.75 10.6 4 24 66.20 35.10 0.00 5.28 15.8 4 25 52.00 35.10 0.00 0.30 16.1 4 26 66.20 35.10 0.01 5.28 21.4 4 27 50.00 33.80 0.05 0.00 21.4 4 28 51.80 28.90 0.00 0.22 21.6 4 29 61.00 24.10 0.00 2.63 24.3 4 30 78.80 37.00 0.00 11.08 35.3 5 1 79.00 57.20 1.44 18.10 53.4 5 2 73.90 55.90 0.62 14.90 68.3 5 3 62.60 48.00 2.61 5.62 74.0 5 4 73.40 48.20 0.13 11.01 85.0 5 5 73.40 48.20 0.06 11.01 96.0 5 6 66.20 51.10 0.25 8.65 104.6 5 7 77.00 42.10 0.00 11.18 115.8 5 8 80.60 59.00 0.08 19.80 135.6 5 9 66.90 53.60 0.89 10.25 145.9 5 10 66.90 41.00 0.00 6.29 152.1 5 11 42.80 35.60 0.62 0.00 152.1 5 12 57.90 41.00 0.08 2.42 154.6 5 13 64.90 44.10 0.00 5.88 160.4 5 14 71.60 53.60 0.17 12.60 173.0 5 15 70.00 46.90 0.92 8.94 182.0 5 16 81.00 44.10 0.00 13.57 195.5 5 17 68.00 51.10 0.00 9.55 205.1 5 18 75.20 48.20 0.01 11.90 217.0 5 19 73.90 53.10 0.16 13.50 230.5 5 20 63.00 43.00 0.01 4.83 235.3 5 21 55.40 42.80 0.34 1.58 236.9 5 22 70.00 50.00 0.23 10.00 246.9 5 23 78.80 48.20 0.00 13.69 260.6 5 24 84.90 55.40 0.00 20.15 280.7 1st egg laying by ow females 5 25 86.00 64.90 0.00 25.45 306.2 5 26 90.00 62.60 0.00 26.07 332.3 5 27 93.90 66.00 0.03 28.77 361.0 5 28 95.00 66.00 0.25 29.00 390.0 5 29 91.90 66.20 0.00 28.39 418.4 5 30 80.60 66.20 0.19 23.40 441.8 5 31 82.40 64.90 0.03 23.65 465.5 6 1 73.90 51.80 0.00 12.85 478.3 6 2 68.00 53.10 0.51 10.55 488.9 6 3 66.20 57.00 0.00 11.60 500.5 6 4 79.00 51.10 0.02 15.05 515.5 Peak (ca. 50%) egg laying by ow females; 1st adult emerge 1st gen 6 5 68.00 48.00 0.03 8.27 523.8 6 6 72.00 42.80 0.01 8.96 532.8 6 7 78.80 53.10 0.00 15.95 548.7 6 8 75.90 54.00 0.00 14.95 563.7 6 9 75.90 57.00 0.00 16.45 580.1 1st egg laying by 1st gen females 6 10 66.90 60.10 0.00 13.50 593.6 6 11 77.00 59.00 0.00 18.00 611.6 6 12 81.00 64.00 0.00 22.50 634.1 6 13 81.00 57.90 0.00 19.45 653.6 6 14 81.00 53.60 0.00 17.30 670.9 6 15 73.90 57.00 0.47 15.45 686.3 6 16 89.60 66.00 0.00 27.62 713.9 6 17 93.20 73.90 0.35 32.37 746.3 6 18 84.00 64.40 0.43 24.20 770.5 Peak adult emerge 1st gen 6 19 70.00 60.80 0.02 15.40 785.9 6 20 75.20 61.00 0.01 18.10 804.0 6 21 75.90 60.10 0.00 18.00 822.0 6 22 73.40 57.20 0.00 15.30 837.3 6 23 79.00 53.10 0.00 16.05 853.3 6 24 81.00 57.20 0.00 19.10 872.4 6 25 75.90 57.20 0.00 16.55 889.0 6 26 80.20 62.10 0.00 21.15 910.1 Px 6 27 116.80 55.90 0.00 27.47 937.6 Px Pn 6 28 79.80 60.70 0.00 20.25 957.9 Px Pn 6 29 95.00 82.40 0.00 36.33 994.2 6 30 95.00 71.10 0.01 31.39 1025.6 Peak egg laying by 1st gen females; max 2+ gens. 7 1 93.20 64.00 0.16 27.65 1053.2 7 2 84.90 60.10 0.00 22.50 1075.7 7 3 89.60 60.10 0.00 24.69 1100.4 7 4 93.90 68.00 0.00 29.73 1130.2 7 5 88.00 64.40 0.00 26.20 1156.4 7 6 77.00 55.00 0.00 16.00 1172.4 7 7 82.40 48.00 0.00 15.41 1187.8 7 8 86.00 51.80 0.00 18.90 1206.7 7 9 89.60 64.00 0.00 26.63 1233.3 7 10 87.10 62.10 0.00 24.60 1257.9 Peak adult emerge 2nd gen; max 3+ gens. 7 11 87.80 57.20 0.00 22.50 1280.4 7 12 86.00 62.60 0.01 24.30 1304.7 7 13 89.60 69.10 1.62 29.16 1333.8 7 14 82.90 68.00 0.14 25.45 1359.3 7 15 88.00 69.10 0.00 28.55 1387.8 7 16 84.20 68.00 0.00 26.10 1413.9 7 17 78.10 59.00 0.00 18.55 1432.5 7 18 80.60 57.00 0.00 18.80 1451.3 7 19 81.00 57.00 0.46 19.00 1470.3 7 20 78.80 66.20 0.02 22.50 1492.8 Peak egg laying by 2nd gen females; max 4+ gens. 7 21 73.40 66.90 0.32 20.15 1512.9 7 22 79.00 62.10 0.04 20.55 1533.5 7 23 80.60 60.10 0.00 20.35 1553.8 7 24 84.90 60.10 0.00 22.50 1576.3 7 25 82.90 59.00 1.01 20.95 1597.3 7 26 73.40 60.10 0.00 16.75 1614.0 7 27 73.90 57.00 0.00 15.45 1629.5 7 28 77.00 53.10 0.00 15.05 1644.5 7 29 81.00 55.40 0.00 18.20 1662.7 7 30 82.40 55.40 0.00 18.90 1681.6 7 31 81.00 53.60 0.00 17.30 1698.9 8 1 84.20 62.10 0.21 23.15 1722.1 8 2 72.00 59.00 0.03 15.50 1737.6 8 3 79.00 59.00 0.00 19.00 1756.6 Peak adult emerge 3rd gen; max 5 gens. 8 4 88.00 66.00 0.00 27.00 1783.6 8 5 86.00 71.10 0.20 28.55 1812.1 8 6 78.80 66.20 0.01 22.50 1834.6 8 7 73.40 63.00 0.00 18.20 1852.8 8 8 82.40 59.00 0.00 20.70 1873.5 8 9 84.20 61.00 0.00 22.60 1896.1 8 10 84.90 57.20 0.00 21.05 1917.2 8 11 87.10 59.00 0.00 23.05 1940.2 8 12 89.60 57.90 0.00 23.60 1963.8 8 13 88.00 59.00 0.00 23.50 1987.3 Peak egg laying by 3rd gen females; max 6+ gens. 8 14 87.80 64.00 0.00 25.90 2013.2 8 15 87.80 64.00 0.00 25.90 2039.1 8 16 82.90 69.10 1.21 26.00 2065.1 8 17 82.90 64.00 0.00 23.45 2088.6 8 18 77.00 57.00 0.00 17.00 2105.6 8 19 82.40 53.60 0.00 18.00 2123.6 8 20 77.00 66.00 1.25 21.50 2145.1 8 21 73.90 57.00 4.20 15.45 2160.5 8 22 77.00 51.10 0.00 14.05 2174.6 8 23 79.00 55.00 0.05 17.00 2191.6 8 24 69.80 60.10 0.28 14.95 2206.5 8 25 80.60 62.10 0.00 21.35 2227.9 8 26 84.90 60.10 2.33 22.50 2250.4 Peak adult emerge 4th gen; max 6+ gens. 8 27 84.20 68.00 2.58 26.10 2276.5 8 28 82.90 66.20 1.93 24.55 2301.0 8 29 71.60 57.20 0.01 14.40 2315.4 8 30 73.00 51.10 0.00 12.05 2327.5 8 31 81.00 53.60 0.00 17.30 2344.8 9 1 79.00 66.20 0.35 22.60 2367.4 9 2 82.40 68.00 0.15 25.20 2392.6 9 3 75.20 68.00 0.60 21.60 2414.2 9 4 87.80 69.80 0.10 28.80 2443.0 9 5 78.80 64.00 0.44 21.40 2464.4 9 6 71.60 48.90 0.00 10.35 2474.7 9 7 68.00 46.40 0.00 7.83 2482.6 Peak egg laying by 4th gen females; max 7+ gens. 9 8 71.60 55.90 0.00 13.75 2496.3 9 9 68.00 48.00 0.00 8.27 2504.6 9 10 71.60 44.60 0.00 9.15 2513.7 9 11 77.00 50.00 0.00 13.50 2527.2 9 12 81.00 55.00 0.00 18.00 2545.2 9 13 78.80 53.60 0.00 16.20 2561.4 9 14 84.90 55.40 0.00 20.15 2581.6 9 15 87.10 57.20 0.00 22.15 2603.7 9 16 86.00 55.00 0.00 20.50 2624.2 9 17 89.60 64.00 0.03 26.63 2650.9 9 18 71.60 57.90 0.23 14.75 2665.6 9 19 66.20 57.20 0.45 11.70 2677.3 9 20 80.10 60.10 0.21 20.10 2697.4 9 21 80.60 45.00 0.01 13.61 2711.0 9 22 64.90 39.00 0.00 5.14 2716.2 9 23 72.00 42.80 0.00 8.96 2725.1 9 24 73.90 48.20 0.00 11.25 2736.4 Peak adult emerge 5th gen; max 8+ gens. 9 25 77.00 51.80 0.13 14.40 2750.8 9 26 63.00 44.60 0.07 5.08 2755.9 9 27 69.80 42.80 0.01 7.92 2763.8 9 28 55.40 42.80 0.01 1.58 2765.4 9 29 50.00 33.10 0.01 0.00 2765.4 9 30 51.80 44.60 0.00 0.39 2765.8 10 1 54.00 46.90 0.00 1.36 2767.1 10 2 57.90 50.00 0.01 3.95 2771.1 10 3 84.90 55.00 0.59 19.95 2791.0 10 4 66.20 42.10 0.06 6.14 2797.2 10 5 55.40 44.60 0.61 1.72 2798.9 10 6 57.90 50.00 3.81 3.95 2802.8 10 7 54.00 48.00 0.73 1.51 2804.3 10 8 80.60 53.60 0.06 17.10 2821.4 10 9 82.90 59.00 0.09 20.95 2842.4 10 10 72.00 50.00 0.26 11.00 2853.4 10 11 48.90 37.90 0.00 0.00 2853.4 10 12 41.00 30.00 0.00 0.00 2853.4 10 13 52.00 28.00 0.00 0.25 2853.6 10 14 53.60 35.10 0.05 0.69 2854.3 10 15 44.10 30.20 0.18 0.00 2854.3 10 16 57.20 33.80 0.00 1.75 2856.1 10 17 50.00 28.90 0.00 0.00 2856.1 10 18 57.90 24.80 0.01 1.68 2857.8 10 19 54.00 46.00 0.06 1.27 2859.0 10 20 48.20 28.90 0.01 0.00 2859.0 10 21 50.00 24.10 0.00 0.00 2859.0 10 22 62.60 30.00 0.00 3.47 2862.5 10 23 52.00 30.00 0.00 0.26 2862.8 10 24 54.00 28.00 0.00 0.68 2863.4 10 25 54.00 33.10 0.00 0.76 2864.2 10 26 52.00 39.00 0.00 0.34 2864.5 10 27 52.00 39.20 0.18 0.34 2864.9 10 28 46.90 42.80 0.21 0.00 2864.9 10 29 50.00 39.00 0.00 0.00 2864.9 10 30 57.90 42.80 0.00 2.58 2867.5 10 31 59.00 37.40 0.00 2.59 2870.0 11 1 48.90 33.80 0.00 0.00 2870.0 11 2 46.90 28.40 0.00 0.00 2870.0 11 3 46.40 28.40 0.09 0.00 2870.0 11 4 50.00 39.00 0.60 0.00 2870.0 11 5 48.90 39.20 0.40 0.00 2870.0 11 6 46.90 37.00 0.06 0.00 2870.0 11 7 37.40 32.00 0.00 0.00 2870.0 11 8 34.00 28.40 0.07 0.00 2870.0 11 9 32.00 19.40 0.03 0.00 2870.0 11 10 27.00 17.60 0.01 0.00 2870.0 11 11 36.00 24.80 0.01 0.00 2870.0 11 12 30.90 21.00 0.00 0.00 2870.0 11 13 24.80 14.00 0.00 0.00 2870.0 11 14 33.80 10.90 0.01 0.00 2870.0 11 15 42.80 15.80 0.01 0.00 2870.0 11 16 37.40 28.00 0.14 0.00 2870.0 11 17 30.90 23.00 0.01 0.00 2870.0 11 18 32.00 12.20 0.00 0.00 2870.0 11 19 30.90 23.00 0.00 0.00 2870.0 11 20 32.00 21.00 0.04 0.00 2870.0 11 21 30.90 24.10 0.00 0.00 2870.0 11 22 37.40 24.80 0.00 0.00 2870.0 11 23 51.80 33.80 0.16 0.24 2870.3 11 24 44.60 37.00 0.03 0.00 2870.3 11 25 37.40 28.40 0.00 0.00 2870.3 11 26 28.90 23.00 0.06 0.00 2870.3 11 27 24.80 16.00 0.10 0.00 2870.3 11 28 28.00 8.60 0.01 0.00 2870.3 11 29 32.00 24.10 0.01 0.00 2870.3 11 30 33.80 24.10 0.00 0.00 2870.3 12 1 36.00 30.00 1.12 0.00 2870.3 12 2 36.00 30.90 0.07 0.00 2870.3 12 3 30.90 27.00 0.00 0.00 2870.3 12 4 30.20 23.00 0.00 0.00 2870.3 12 5 30.90 21.20 0.05 0.00 2870.3 12 6 28.40 12.00 0.00 0.00 2870.3 12 7 19.40 10.00 0.04 0.00 2870.3 12 8 27.00 10.00 0.01 0.00 2870.3 12 9 25.00 12.20 0.01 0.00 2870.3 12 10 34.00 15.10 0.00 0.00 2870.3 12 11 28.90 17.10 0.00 0.00 2870.3 12 12 36.00 28.00 0.04 0.00 2870.3 12 13 37.40 30.20 0.00 0.00 2870.3 12 14 36.00 21.90 0.02 0.00 2870.3 12 15 42.80 17.60 0.00 0.00 2870.3 12 16 44.10 21.20 0.00 0.00 2870.3 12 17 36.00 19.40 0.05 0.00 2870.3 12 18 42.80 17.10 0.00 0.00 2870.3 12 19 43.00 33.10 0.07 0.00 2870.3 12 20 42.80 35.10 0.03 0.00 2870.3 12 21 35.60 25.00 0.01 0.00 2870.3 12 22 28.90 24.10 0.00 0.00 2870.3 12 23 35.60 26.10 0.10 0.00 2870.3 12 24 30.00 19.00 0.00 0.00 2870.3 12 25 30.20 21.20 0.01 0.00 2870.3 12 26 35.10 28.40 0.03 0.00 2870.3 12 27 48.90 37.00 0.28 0.00 2870.3 12 28 48.20 21.00 0.04 0.00 2870.3 12 29 25.00 12.20 0.02 0.00 2870.3 12 30 32.00 17.60 0.00 0.00 2870.3 12 31 33.80 26.06 1.88 0.00 2870.3 Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 KFLD PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021