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invasive insect model of OSU OIPMC model analysis vers. 3.0 |
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Output from uspest.org/wea invasive insect degree-day/phenology model program: Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================ Model species/general links: spotted wing Drosophila [fruit] Type: invasive insect Model source/other links: OSU OIPMC model analysis vers. 3.0 Calculation method: single sine Lower threshold: 50 degrees Fahrenheit Upper threshold: 88 degrees Fahrenheit Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1 No ending date, set to: default date 12 31 Model validation status: partly validated-has been compared to 2 years of field data in PNW Region of known use: potential for use in US ==============================EVENTS TABLE================================ 1. 261 DDs after Jan 1: 1st egg laying by ow females 2. 510 DDs after Jan 1: Peak (ca. 50%) egg laying by ow females; 1st adult emerge 1st gen 3. 565 DDs after Jan 1: 1st egg laying by 1st gen females 4. 755 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 1st gen 5. 995 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 1st gen females; max 2+ gens. 6. 1249 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 2nd gen; max 3+ gens. 7. 1489 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 2nd gen females; max 4+ gens. 8. 1743 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 3rd gen; max 5 gens. 9. 1983 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 3rd gen females; max 6+ gens. 10. 2237 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 4th gen; max 6+ gens. 11. 2477 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 4th gen females; max 7+ gens. 12. 2731 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 5th gen; max 8+ gens. 13. 2971 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 5th gen females; max 9+ gens. ==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================ Weather station: 2018 KBLI METAR Bellingham Int Apt WA Lat:48.7989 Long:-122.5406 Elev:148 mn day max min precip DD50 CUMDD50 event -- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- ------- 1 1 35.60 26.10 0.00 0.00 0.0 * START * 1 2 37.40 28.40 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 3 41.00 27.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 4 42.80 26.10 0.03 0.00 0.0 1 5 55.90 37.40 0.22 1.46 1.5 1 6 48.20 42.10 0.73 0.00 1.5 1 7 48.00 39.00 0.43 0.00 1.5 1 8 46.40 39.00 0.41 0.00 1.5 1 9 46.40 41.00 0.06 0.00 1.5 1 10 45.00 39.00 0.05 0.00 1.5 1 11 39.20 33.80 0.94 0.00 1.5 1 12 37.90 33.80 0.44 0.00 1.5 1 13 46.40 35.60 0.01 0.00 1.5 1 14 54.00 32.00 0.00 0.74 2.2 1 15 53.60 35.10 0.00 0.69 2.9 1 16 55.40 44.60 0.00 1.72 4.6 1 17 62.60 42.80 0.11 4.62 9.2 1 18 50.00 44.60 0.01 0.00 9.2 1 19 48.20 44.10 0.02 0.00 9.2 1 20 50.00 42.10 0.02 0.00 9.2 1 21 51.80 42.10 0.17 0.34 9.6 1 22 46.40 41.00 0.05 0.00 9.6 1 23 48.20 37.40 0.30 0.00 9.6 1 24 51.80 42.10 0.18 0.34 9.9 1 25 43.00 37.00 0.13 0.00 9.9 1 26 43.00 37.90 0.18 0.00 9.9 1 27 48.90 37.00 0.10 0.00 9.9 1 28 55.90 39.20 0.38 1.55 11.4 1 29 55.90 44.10 0.51 1.88 13.3 1 30 46.40 41.00 0.13 0.00 13.3 1 31 44.60 39.00 0.13 0.00 13.3 2 1 45.00 39.90 0.39 0.00 13.3 2 2 52.00 39.20 0.52 0.34 13.7 2 3 48.90 46.40 0.68 0.00 13.7 2 4 53.60 48.00 0.55 1.33 15.0 2 5 48.20 44.60 0.02 0.00 15.0 2 6 46.90 44.10 0.14 0.00 15.0 2 7 52.00 46.00 0.04 0.51 15.5 2 8 55.40 43.00 0.01 1.59 17.1 2 9 45.00 33.80 0.01 0.00 17.1 2 10 44.10 28.40 0.00 0.00 17.1 2 11 45.00 30.00 0.00 0.00 17.1 2 12 43.00 26.10 0.00 0.00 17.1 2 13 42.80 24.10 0.25 0.00 17.1 2 14 42.80 33.10 0.08 0.00 17.1 2 15 43.00 33.10 0.20 0.00 17.1 2 16 46.40 39.00 0.31 0.00 17.1 2 17 48.90 35.10 0.61 0.00 17.1 2 18 36.00 26.60 0.15 0.00 17.1 2 19 36.00 24.10 0.00 0.00 17.1 2 20 37.90 21.20 0.00 0.00 17.1 2 21 34.00 21.00 0.01 0.00 17.1 2 22 39.90 21.90 0.00 0.00 17.1 2 23 35.60 19.00 0.16 0.00 17.1 2 24 43.00 30.20 0.10 0.00 17.1 2 25 46.40 33.10 0.02 0.00 17.1 2 26 44.10 32.00 0.09 0.00 17.1 2 27 46.40 37.40 0.02 0.00 17.1 2 28 48.90 39.00 0.04 0.00 17.1 3 1 50.00 36.00 0.01 0.00 17.1 3 2 43.00 35.10 0.01 0.00 17.1 3 3 48.20 28.90 0.00 0.00 17.1 3 4 46.90 28.40 0.02 0.00 17.1 3 5 45.00 32.00 0.00 0.00 17.1 3 6 52.00 33.80 0.00 0.28 17.4 3 7 48.90 30.20 0.07 0.00 17.4 3 8 50.00 37.40 0.29 0.00 17.4 3 9 50.00 32.00 0.50 0.00 17.4 3 10 55.90 28.00 0.00 1.18 18.6 3 11 62.60 28.40 0.00 3.38 21.9 3 12 70.00 32.00 0.00 6.56 28.5 3 13 60.80 45.00 0.58 4.14 32.6 3 14 46.90 39.20 0.19 0.00 32.6 3 15 55.90 30.20 0.00 1.23 33.9 3 16 55.90 30.00 0.00 1.22 35.1 3 17 52.00 30.20 0.00 0.26 35.3 3 18 52.00 35.10 0.00 0.30 35.6 3 19 52.00 33.80 0.00 0.28 35.9 3 20 50.00 37.00 0.00 0.00 35.9 3 21 59.00 35.60 0.00 2.47 38.4 3 22 51.80 35.60 0.72 0.26 38.7 3 23 46.90 35.60 0.01 0.00 38.7 3 24 46.90 30.90 0.14 0.00 38.7 3 25 48.90 28.40 0.00 0.00 38.7 3 26 46.40 42.10 0.79 0.00 38.7 3 27 55.40 44.60 0.25 1.72 40.4 3 28 51.80 44.10 0.00 0.38 40.8 3 29 48.90 44.10 0.17 0.00 40.8 3 30 55.40 39.00 0.13 1.36 42.1 3 31 57.90 32.00 0.00 1.91 44.0 4 1 50.00 35.10 0.06 0.00 44.0 4 2 50.00 33.10 0.00 0.00 44.0 4 3 48.90 39.00 0.00 0.00 44.0 4 4 48.20 39.20 0.47 0.00 44.0 4 5 48.90 42.10 0.70 0.00 44.0 4 6 62.60 46.00 0.13 5.16 49.2 4 7 57.20 48.20 0.13 3.05 52.2 4 8 53.60 48.00 0.22 1.33 53.6 4 9 59.00 46.40 0.51 3.54 57.1 4 10 57.90 44.60 0.09 2.78 59.9 4 11 55.40 43.00 0.26 1.59 61.5 4 12 51.80 42.10 0.01 0.34 61.8 4 13 53.60 44.10 0.26 0.98 62.8 4 14 51.80 44.10 0.18 0.38 63.2 4 15 54.00 42.80 0.15 1.06 64.2 4 16 46.40 42.80 0.30 0.00 64.2 4 17 52.00 44.60 0.03 0.45 64.7 4 18 57.90 39.00 0.11 2.27 67.0 4 19 59.00 35.60 0.00 2.47 69.4 4 20 57.90 42.10 0.06 2.51 71.9 4 21 55.90 42.10 0.01 1.72 73.7 4 22 57.20 37.00 0.00 1.90 75.6 4 23 66.20 34.00 0.00 5.17 80.7 4 24 69.80 36.00 0.00 6.91 87.6 4 25 70.00 39.00 0.00 7.39 95.0 4 26 75.00 42.10 0.00 10.24 105.3 4 27 57.90 46.40 0.01 3.03 108.3 4 28 53.60 48.20 0.13 1.36 109.7 4 29 57.20 48.20 0.01 3.05 112.7 4 30 57.90 48.20 0.01 3.39 116.1 5 1 60.80 44.60 0.00 4.07 120.2 5 2 66.20 42.10 0.00 6.14 126.3 5 3 71.60 44.10 0.00 9.04 135.3 5 4 59.00 45.00 0.00 3.32 138.7 5 5 66.90 41.00 0.02 6.29 145.0 5 6 73.40 50.00 0.22 11.70 156.7 5 7 66.20 51.80 0.02 9.00 165.7 5 8 72.00 46.40 0.08 9.78 175.4 5 9 66.20 51.10 0.32 8.65 184.1 5 10 60.80 48.20 0.01 4.79 188.9 5 11 64.90 48.00 0.00 6.75 195.6 5 12 71.60 44.10 0.00 9.04 204.7 5 13 75.90 48.00 0.00 12.18 216.8 5 14 82.40 50.00 0.00 16.20 233.0 5 15 66.90 53.10 0.00 10.00 243.0 5 16 64.90 53.10 0.00 9.00 252.0 5 17 63.00 53.10 0.00 8.05 260.1 5 18 63.00 53.60 0.00 8.30 268.4 1st egg laying by ow females 5 19 71.60 53.60 0.00 12.60 281.0 5 20 63.00 52.00 0.00 7.50 288.5 5 21 68.00 46.00 0.00 7.74 296.2 5 22 75.20 46.40 0.00 11.35 307.6 5 23 71.60 50.00 0.00 10.80 318.4 5 24 64.40 55.40 0.01 9.90 328.3 5 25 64.40 51.80 0.00 8.10 336.4 5 26 63.00 50.00 0.00 6.50 342.9 5 27 70.00 48.00 0.00 9.26 352.1 5 28 66.90 52.00 0.00 9.45 361.6 5 29 62.60 50.00 0.00 6.30 367.9 5 30 64.40 46.40 0.00 6.10 374.0 5 31 62.60 46.00 0.00 5.16 379.1 6 1 63.00 51.80 0.01 7.40 386.5 6 2 72.00 51.10 0.00 11.55 398.1 6 3 57.90 50.00 0.13 3.95 402.0 6 4 62.60 45.00 0.00 4.97 407.0 6 5 66.90 44.60 0.00 6.91 413.9 6 6 69.10 46.00 0.00 8.27 422.2 6 7 64.40 53.10 0.00 8.75 430.9 6 8 63.00 51.10 0.32 7.05 438.0 6 9 62.60 48.90 0.23 5.88 443.9 6 10 62.60 48.20 0.01 5.67 449.5 6 11 64.40 51.10 0.00 7.75 457.3 6 12 66.20 42.80 0.02 6.25 463.5 6 13 64.40 53.10 0.05 8.75 472.3 6 14 66.20 48.90 0.00 7.67 480.0 6 15 66.90 46.40 0.00 7.30 487.3 6 16 80.60 51.10 0.00 15.85 503.1 6 17 79.00 51.10 0.00 15.05 518.2 Peak (ca. 50%) egg laying by ow females; 1st adult emerge 1st gen 6 18 82.90 53.10 0.00 18.00 536.2 6 19 75.90 60.80 0.00 18.35 554.5 6 20 82.40 57.00 0.00 19.70 574.2 1st egg laying by 1st gen females 6 21 66.90 57.00 0.01 11.95 586.2 6 22 64.40 57.00 0.00 10.70 596.9 6 23 71.60 57.00 0.00 14.30 611.2 6 24 72.00 53.60 0.17 12.80 624.0 6 25 63.00 53.60 0.08 8.30 632.3 6 26 71.00 53.60 0.21 12.30 644.6 Px 6 27 71.50 46.20 0.00 9.48 654.0 Px Pn 6 28 64.60 54.50 0.00 9.55 663.6 Px Pn 6 29 64.40 57.00 0.06 10.70 674.3 6 30 61.00 57.20 0.05 9.10 683.4 7 1 66.90 55.90 0.07 11.40 694.8 7 2 66.90 52.00 0.03 9.45 704.2 7 3 71.60 48.00 0.00 10.05 714.3 7 4 86.00 48.90 0.00 17.53 731.8 7 5 78.80 62.10 0.00 20.45 752.3 7 6 75.90 57.00 0.06 16.45 768.7 Peak adult emerge 1st gen 7 7 72.00 55.00 0.41 13.50 782.2 7 8 75.20 48.20 0.00 11.90 794.1 7 9 66.90 55.40 0.00 11.15 805.3 7 10 72.00 57.20 0.00 14.60 819.9 7 11 75.90 53.60 0.00 14.75 834.6 7 12 78.10 57.00 0.00 17.55 852.2 7 13 77.00 57.00 0.00 17.00 869.2 7 14 82.40 53.10 0.00 17.75 886.9 7 15 84.90 53.60 0.00 19.25 906.2 7 16 82.90 55.00 0.00 18.95 925.1 7 17 79.00 53.60 0.00 16.30 941.4 7 18 71.60 59.00 0.00 15.30 956.7 7 19 66.90 57.20 0.00 12.05 968.8 7 20 72.00 53.10 0.00 12.55 981.3 7 21 73.90 50.00 0.00 11.95 993.3 7 22 82.00 48.00 0.00 15.21 1008.5 Peak egg laying by 1st gen females; max 2+ gens. 7 23 84.20 53.60 0.00 18.90 1027.4 7 24 82.90 57.00 0.00 19.95 1047.3 7 25 84.90 59.00 0.00 21.95 1069.3 7 26 82.40 57.00 0.00 19.70 1089.0 7 27 78.80 59.00 0.00 18.90 1107.9 7 28 79.00 59.00 0.00 19.00 1126.9 7 29 90.00 57.00 0.00 23.29 1150.2 7 30 82.90 62.10 0.00 22.50 1172.7 7 31 70.00 59.00 0.00 14.50 1187.2 8 1 69.80 59.00 0.00 14.40 1201.6 8 2 68.00 59.00 0.00 13.50 1215.1 8 3 70.00 57.20 0.00 13.60 1228.7 8 4 77.00 53.10 0.00 15.05 1243.7 8 5 81.00 57.00 0.00 19.00 1262.7 Peak adult emerge 2nd gen; max 3+ gens. 8 6 78.10 59.00 0.00 18.55 1281.3 8 7 87.10 57.20 0.00 22.15 1303.4 8 8 89.60 57.00 0.00 23.15 1326.6 8 9 88.00 64.00 0.00 26.00 1352.6 8 10 82.40 57.00 0.00 19.70 1372.3 8 11 69.10 62.60 0.07 15.85 1388.1 8 12 73.00 54.00 0.00 13.50 1401.6 8 13 75.90 51.10 0.00 13.50 1415.1 8 14 79.00 53.10 0.00 16.05 1431.2 8 15 82.40 57.00 0.00 19.70 1450.9 8 16 69.80 55.00 0.00 12.40 1463.3 8 17 70.00 55.00 0.00 12.50 1475.8 8 18 73.40 50.00 0.00 11.70 1487.5 8 19 73.40 53.10 0.00 13.25 1500.7 Peak egg laying by 2nd gen females; max 4+ gens. 8 20 87.80 51.10 0.00 19.45 1520.2 8 21 84.90 54.00 0.00 19.45 1539.6 8 22 79.00 53.10 0.00 16.05 1555.7 8 23 66.90 57.00 0.00 11.95 1567.6 8 24 69.80 52.00 0.00 10.90 1578.5 8 25 61.00 53.60 0.03 7.30 1585.8 8 26 63.00 53.60 0.14 8.30 1594.1 8 27 75.90 51.10 0.00 13.50 1607.6 8 28 77.00 48.00 0.00 12.72 1620.3 8 29 69.10 53.60 0.03 11.35 1631.7 8 30 70.00 55.40 0.00 12.70 1644.4 8 31 66.20 55.40 0.00 10.80 1655.2 9 1 68.00 53.10 0.00 10.55 1665.7 9 2 72.00 51.10 0.00 11.55 1677.3 9 3 70.00 50.00 0.00 10.00 1687.3 9 4 73.90 44.10 0.00 10.14 1697.4 9 5 79.00 46.00 0.00 13.10 1710.5 9 6 78.80 48.00 0.00 13.62 1724.1 9 7 66.90 57.00 0.33 11.95 1736.1 9 8 66.20 53.60 0.03 9.90 1746.0 Peak adult emerge 3rd gen; max 5 gens. 9 9 64.90 55.00 0.53 9.95 1755.9 9 10 66.90 53.10 0.01 10.00 1765.9 9 11 68.00 53.60 0.13 10.80 1776.7 9 12 64.40 53.10 0.04 8.75 1785.5 9 13 66.00 52.00 0.00 9.00 1794.5 9 14 64.40 51.10 0.25 7.75 1802.2 9 15 64.40 51.10 0.05 7.75 1810.0 9 16 62.60 55.00 0.34 8.80 1818.8 9 17 64.40 46.00 0.00 6.01 1824.8 9 18 64.40 44.60 0.00 5.73 1830.5 9 19 64.90 44.10 0.05 5.88 1836.4 9 20 60.80 53.10 0.19 6.95 1843.4 9 21 64.90 53.60 0.12 9.25 1852.6 9 22 64.40 55.40 0.14 9.90 1862.5 9 23 60.80 46.00 0.07 4.31 1866.8 9 24 64.90 42.80 0.00 5.66 1872.5 9 25 64.90 41.00 0.00 5.40 1877.9 9 26 64.90 46.00 0.00 6.25 1884.1 9 27 70.00 44.10 0.00 8.27 1892.4 9 28 78.80 53.10 0.00 15.95 1908.3 9 29 66.20 55.90 0.17 11.05 1919.4 9 30 63.00 53.10 0.24 8.05 1927.4 10 1 64.40 57.00 0.44 10.70 1938.1 10 2 59.00 42.10 0.00 2.97 1941.1 10 3 53.60 37.40 0.00 0.74 1941.9 10 4 57.90 37.00 0.00 2.15 1944.0 10 5 55.90 37.40 0.00 1.46 1945.5 10 6 60.80 35.60 0.00 3.15 1948.6 10 7 54.00 44.60 0.16 1.16 1949.8 10 8 55.90 50.00 0.07 2.95 1952.7 10 9 66.20 46.00 0.26 6.87 1959.6 10 10 64.90 42.10 0.00 5.55 1965.2 10 11 62.60 35.60 0.00 3.86 1969.0 10 12 60.10 42.10 0.00 3.44 1972.4 10 13 66.90 41.00 0.00 6.29 1978.7 10 14 64.40 37.00 0.00 4.72 1983.5 Peak egg laying by 3rd gen females; max 6+ gens. 10 15 63.00 35.10 0.00 3.98 1987.4 10 16 71.60 37.00 0.00 7.83 1995.3 10 17 70.00 37.00 0.00 7.12 2002.4 10 18 64.90 39.00 0.00 5.14 2007.5 10 19 62.60 39.00 0.00 4.16 2011.7 10 20 57.90 37.00 0.00 2.15 2013.8 10 21 61.00 37.00 0.00 3.33 2017.2 10 22 57.20 37.00 0.00 1.90 2019.1 10 23 55.40 37.40 0.17 1.30 2020.4 10 24 59.00 46.00 0.01 3.47 2023.8 10 25 60.80 55.00 0.32 7.90 2031.7 10 26 62.60 45.00 0.11 4.97 2036.7 10 27 57.20 35.60 1.35 1.83 2038.5 10 28 57.90 50.00 0.01 3.95 2042.5 10 29 55.40 50.00 0.10 2.70 2045.2 10 30 54.00 46.40 0.18 1.31 2046.5 10 31 57.20 50.00 0.31 3.60 2050.1 11 1 60.80 55.00 1.24 7.90 2058.0 11 2 60.80 51.80 0.01 6.30 2064.3 11 3 55.40 51.10 0.63 3.25 2067.5 11 4 59.00 51.10 0.03 5.05 2072.6 11 5 55.90 48.20 0.05 2.43 2075.0 11 6 53.60 44.60 0.02 1.01 2076.0 11 7 53.60 30.90 0.00 0.62 2076.7 11 8 50.00 28.00 0.00 0.00 2076.7 11 9 44.60 33.80 0.29 0.00 2076.7 11 10 52.00 30.90 0.00 0.26 2076.9 11 11 51.80 30.00 0.00 0.22 2077.1 11 12 53.60 28.40 0.00 0.59 2077.7 11 13 52.00 30.00 0.75 0.26 2078.0 11 14 55.90 46.00 0.12 2.08 2080.1 11 15 54.00 48.00 0.04 1.51 2081.6 11 16 57.20 45.00 0.14 2.52 2084.1 11 17 52.00 30.20 0.00 0.26 2084.4 11 18 51.80 28.00 0.00 0.21 2084.6 11 19 54.00 28.00 0.00 0.68 2085.2 11 20 54.00 28.00 0.00 0.68 2085.9 11 21 55.90 37.40 0.40 1.46 2087.4 11 22 54.00 46.00 0.36 1.27 2088.7 11 23 48.20 44.10 0.14 0.00 2088.7 11 24 50.00 39.00 0.04 0.00 2088.7 11 25 51.80 37.40 0.09 0.27 2088.9 11 26 61.00 44.60 0.33 4.16 2093.1 11 27 57.90 48.20 0.61 3.39 2096.5 11 28 51.80 44.10 0.09 0.38 2096.9 11 29 51.80 44.10 0.01 0.38 2097.2 11 30 50.00 42.80 0.07 0.00 2097.2 12 1 48.90 33.10 0.43 0.00 2097.2 12 2 46.40 28.00 0.00 0.00 2097.2 12 3 45.00 26.60 0.00 0.00 2097.2 12 4 39.90 26.60 0.00 0.00 2097.2 12 5 45.00 21.90 0.00 0.00 2097.2 12 6 41.00 21.00 0.00 0.00 2097.2 12 7 43.00 19.00 0.00 0.00 2097.2 12 8 42.80 28.40 0.01 0.00 2097.2 12 9 48.90 30.00 0.30 0.00 2097.2 12 10 48.20 42.80 0.07 0.00 2097.2 12 11 50.00 44.10 0.28 0.00 2097.2 12 12 48.20 37.00 0.07 0.00 2097.2 12 13 57.00 44.60 0.12 2.39 2099.6 12 14 63.00 44.10 0.14 5.00 2104.6 12 15 48.20 41.00 0.01 0.00 2104.6 12 16 59.00 42.10 0.44 2.97 2107.6 12 17 53.60 48.00 0.09 1.33 2108.9 12 18 51.80 46.40 0.31 0.46 2109.4 12 19 48.90 44.10 0.02 0.00 2109.4 12 20 57.20 44.60 0.49 2.48 2111.9 12 21 44.60 30.20 0.00 0.00 2111.9 12 22 48.90 32.00 0.08 0.00 2111.9 12 23 48.20 39.20 0.06 0.00 2111.9 12 24 46.90 32.00 0.02 0.00 2111.9 12 25 39.90 28.00 0.00 0.00 2111.9 12 26 39.20 35.10 0.18 0.00 2111.9 12 27 42.80 34.00 0.02 0.00 2111.9 12 28 39.20 35.60 1.10 0.00 2111.9 12 29 52.00 42.10 0.50 0.39 2112.2 12 30 46.40 33.80 0.00 0.00 2112.2 12 31 44.60 28.40 0.00 0.00 2112.2 Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 KBLI PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021