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invasive insect model of OSU OIPMC model analysis vers. 3.0 |
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Output from uspest.org/wea invasive insect degree-day/phenology model program: Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================ Model species/general links: spotted wing Drosophila [fruit] Type: invasive insect Model source/other links: OSU OIPMC model analysis vers. 3.0 Calculation method: single sine Lower threshold: 50 degrees Fahrenheit Upper threshold: 88 degrees Fahrenheit Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1 No ending date, set to: default date 12 31 Model validation status: partly validated-has been compared to 2 years of field data in PNW Region of known use: potential for use in US ==============================EVENTS TABLE================================ 1. 261 DDs after Jan 1: 1st egg laying by ow females 2. 510 DDs after Jan 1: Peak (ca. 50%) egg laying by ow females; 1st adult emerge 1st gen 3. 565 DDs after Jan 1: 1st egg laying by 1st gen females 4. 755 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 1st gen 5. 995 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 1st gen females; max 2+ gens. 6. 1249 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 2nd gen; max 3+ gens. 7. 1489 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 2nd gen females; max 4+ gens. 8. 1743 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 3rd gen; max 5 gens. 9. 1983 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 3rd gen females; max 6+ gens. 10. 2237 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 4th gen; max 6+ gens. 11. 2477 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 4th gen females; max 7+ gens. 12. 2731 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 5th gen; max 8+ gens. 13. 2971 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 5th gen females; max 9+ gens. ==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================ Weather station: 2018 CYXX CANADA Abbotsford: B. C. BC Lat:49.0331 Long:-122.3667 Elev:177 mn day max min precip DD50 CUMDD50 event -- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- ------- 1 1 30.20 21.20 0.00 0.00 0.0 * START * 1 2 33.80 26.60 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 3 39.20 28.40 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 4 37.40 32.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 5 39.20 35.60 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 6 42.80 37.40 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 7 39.20 35.60 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 8 42.80 37.40 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 9 44.60 39.20 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 10 44.60 39.20 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 11 37.40 32.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 12 33.80 32.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 13 41.00 33.80 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 14 53.60 37.40 0.00 0.74 0.7 1 15 50.00 39.20 0.00 0.00 0.7 1 16 53.60 41.00 0.00 0.84 1.6 1 17 55.40 41.00 0.00 1.46 3.0 1 18 51.80 42.80 0.00 0.35 3.4 1 19 44.60 41.00 0.00 0.00 3.4 1 20 46.40 39.20 0.00 0.00 3.4 1 21 51.80 41.00 0.00 0.32 3.7 1 22 46.40 37.40 0.00 0.00 3.7 1 23 39.20 35.60 0.00 0.00 3.7 1 24 44.60 37.40 0.00 0.00 3.7 1 25 41.00 33.80 0.00 0.00 3.7 1 26 42.80 35.60 0.00 0.00 3.7 1 27 41.00 35.60 0.00 0.00 3.7 1 28 45.30 33.70 0.00 0.00 3.7 Hx Hn 1 29 50.00 39.20 0.00 0.00 3.7 1 30 46.40 39.20 0.00 0.00 3.7 1 31 42.80 35.60 0.00 0.00 3.7 2 1 41.00 35.60 0.00 0.00 3.7 2 2 51.80 39.20 0.00 0.29 4.0 2 3 50.00 46.40 0.00 0.00 4.0 2 4 53.60 44.60 0.00 1.01 5.0 2 5 48.20 44.60 0.00 0.00 5.0 2 6 46.40 42.80 0.00 0.00 5.0 2 7 50.00 44.60 0.00 0.00 5.0 2 8 53.60 42.80 0.00 0.92 5.9 2 9 41.00 35.60 0.00 0.00 5.9 2 10 41.00 28.40 0.00 0.00 5.9 2 11 44.60 30.20 0.00 0.00 5.9 2 12 41.00 30.20 0.00 0.00 5.9 2 13 39.20 24.80 0.00 0.00 5.9 2 14 37.40 32.00 0.00 0.00 5.9 2 15 39.20 30.20 0.00 0.00 5.9 2 16 46.40 35.60 0.00 0.00 5.9 2 17 46.40 32.00 0.00 0.00 5.9 2 18 33.80 26.60 0.00 0.00 5.9 2 19 33.80 24.80 0.00 0.00 5.9 2 20 47.40 19.40 0.00 0.00 5.9 Hx 2 21 30.20 23.00 0.00 0.00 5.9 2 22 37.40 23.00 0.00 0.00 5.9 2 23 30.20 23.00 0.00 0.00 5.9 2 24 37.40 28.40 0.00 0.00 5.9 2 25 42.80 33.80 0.00 0.00 5.9 2 26 39.20 32.00 0.00 0.00 5.9 2 27 42.80 35.60 0.00 0.00 5.9 2 28 42.80 35.60 0.00 0.00 5.9 3 1 46.40 35.60 0.00 0.00 5.9 3 2 41.00 33.80 0.00 0.00 5.9 3 3 44.60 32.00 0.00 0.00 5.9 3 4 41.00 32.00 0.00 0.00 5.9 3 5 44.60 32.00 0.00 0.00 5.9 3 6 50.00 33.80 0.00 0.00 5.9 3 7 50.00 32.00 0.00 0.00 5.9 3 8 46.40 39.20 0.00 0.00 5.9 3 9 50.00 37.40 0.00 0.00 5.9 3 10 55.40 32.00 0.00 1.13 7.1 3 11 60.80 35.60 0.00 3.15 10.2 3 12 66.20 41.00 0.00 5.98 16.2 3 13 59.00 46.40 0.00 3.54 19.7 3 14 46.40 41.00 0.00 0.00 19.7 3 15 55.40 33.80 0.00 1.18 20.9 3 16 57.20 32.00 0.00 1.68 22.6 3 17 53.60 32.00 0.00 0.63 23.2 3 18 50.00 39.20 0.00 0.00 23.2 3 19 50.00 35.60 0.00 0.00 23.2 3 20 50.00 35.60 0.00 0.00 23.2 3 21 59.00 37.40 0.00 2.59 25.8 3 22 50.00 35.60 0.00 0.00 25.8 3 23 44.60 35.60 0.00 0.00 25.8 3 24 42.80 35.60 0.00 0.00 25.8 3 25 48.20 28.40 0.00 0.00 25.8 3 26 44.60 41.00 0.00 0.00 25.8 3 27 55.40 42.80 0.00 1.58 27.4 3 28 51.80 42.80 0.00 0.35 27.7 3 29 46.40 42.80 0.00 0.00 27.7 3 30 53.60 41.00 0.00 0.84 28.6 3 31 55.40 35.60 0.00 1.23 29.8 4 1 48.20 33.80 0.00 0.00 29.8 4 2 50.00 30.20 0.00 0.00 29.8 4 3 48.20 39.20 0.00 0.00 29.8 4 4 50.00 41.00 0.00 0.00 29.8 4 5 48.20 42.80 0.00 0.00 29.8 4 6 60.80 46.40 0.00 4.38 34.2 4 7 57.20 48.20 0.00 3.05 37.2 4 8 51.80 46.40 0.00 0.46 37.7 4 9 59.00 46.40 0.00 3.54 41.2 4 10 57.20 46.40 0.00 2.72 44.0 4 11 53.60 42.80 0.00 0.92 44.9 4 12 51.80 39.20 0.00 0.29 45.2 4 13 51.80 41.00 0.00 0.32 45.5 4 14 50.00 44.60 0.00 0.00 45.5 4 15 55.40 42.80 0.00 1.58 47.1 4 16 48.20 42.80 0.00 0.00 47.1 4 17 51.80 42.80 0.00 0.35 47.4 4 18 59.00 39.20 0.00 2.71 50.1 4 19 59.00 37.40 0.00 2.59 52.7 4 20 59.00 42.80 0.00 3.04 55.8 4 21 55.40 46.40 0.00 1.91 57.7 4 22 60.80 35.60 0.00 3.15 60.8 4 23 69.80 41.00 0.00 7.61 68.4 4 24 73.40 42.80 0.00 9.62 78.0 4 25 78.80 46.40 0.00 13.11 91.2 4 26 80.60 51.80 0.00 16.20 107.4 4 27 60.80 48.20 0.00 4.79 112.2 4 28 53.60 48.20 0.00 1.36 113.5 4 29 53.60 46.40 0.00 1.15 114.7 4 30 55.40 48.20 0.00 2.19 116.8 5 1 60.80 48.20 0.00 4.79 121.6 5 2 66.20 42.80 0.00 6.25 127.9 5 3 69.80 48.20 0.00 9.22 137.1 5 4 57.20 50.00 0.00 3.60 140.7 5 5 71.60 42.80 0.00 8.77 149.5 5 6 77.00 55.40 0.00 16.20 165.7 5 7 69.80 53.60 0.00 11.70 177.4 5 8 80.60 50.00 0.00 15.30 192.7 5 9 64.40 53.60 0.00 9.00 201.7 5 10 59.00 48.20 0.00 3.92 205.6 5 11 66.20 48.20 0.00 7.44 213.0 5 12 75.20 48.20 0.00 11.90 224.9 5 13 82.40 48.20 0.00 15.48 240.4 5 14 84.20 55.40 0.00 19.80 260.2 5 15 73.40 53.60 0.00 13.50 273.7 1st egg laying by ow females 5 16 68.00 53.60 0.00 10.80 284.5 5 17 64.40 53.60 0.00 9.00 293.5 5 18 64.40 53.60 0.00 9.00 302.5 5 19 69.80 53.60 0.00 11.70 314.2 5 20 64.40 53.60 0.00 9.00 323.2 5 21 69.80 51.80 0.00 10.80 334.0 5 22 78.80 48.20 0.00 13.69 347.7 5 23 78.80 51.80 0.00 15.30 363.0 5 24 68.00 55.40 0.00 11.70 374.7 5 25 68.00 50.00 0.00 9.00 383.7 5 26 66.20 48.20 0.00 7.44 391.2 5 27 71.60 50.00 0.00 10.80 402.0 5 28 69.80 51.80 0.00 10.80 412.8 5 29 64.40 46.40 0.00 6.10 418.8 5 30 64.40 44.60 0.00 5.73 424.6 5 31 62.60 46.40 0.00 5.24 429.8 6 1 60.80 48.20 0.00 4.79 434.6 6 2 73.40 53.60 0.00 13.50 448.1 6 3 60.80 50.00 0.00 5.40 453.5 6 4 64.40 48.20 0.00 6.56 460.1 6 5 64.40 48.20 0.00 6.56 466.6 6 6 71.60 44.60 0.00 9.15 475.8 6 7 62.60 50.00 0.00 6.30 482.1 6 8 60.80 50.00 0.00 5.40 487.5 6 9 62.60 48.20 0.00 5.67 493.1 6 10 60.80 48.20 0.00 4.79 497.9 6 11 64.40 48.20 0.00 6.56 504.5 6 12 64.40 44.60 0.00 5.73 510.2 Peak (ca. 50%) egg laying by ow females; 1st adult emerge 1st gen 6 13 62.60 51.80 0.00 7.20 517.4 6 14 64.40 50.00 0.00 7.20 524.6 6 15 68.00 48.20 0.00 8.33 533.0 6 16 80.60 55.40 0.00 18.00 551.0 6 17 86.00 53.60 0.00 19.80 570.8 1st egg laying by 1st gen females 6 18 86.00 57.20 0.00 21.60 592.4 6 19 82.40 60.80 0.00 21.60 614.0 6 20 87.80 60.80 0.00 24.30 638.3 6 21 69.80 57.20 0.00 13.50 651.8 6 22 64.40 55.40 0.00 9.90 661.7 6 23 71.60 55.40 0.00 13.50 675.2 6 24 77.00 51.80 0.00 14.40 689.6 6 25 71.20 53.60 0.00 12.40 702.0 Hx 6 26 72.70 51.80 0.00 12.25 714.2 Hx 6 27 71.80 52.40 0.00 12.10 726.3 Hx Hn 6 28 73.50 54.10 0.00 13.80 740.1 Hx Hn 6 29 64.40 54.70 0.00 9.55 749.7 Hn 6 30 62.60 57.20 0.00 9.90 759.6 Peak adult emerge 1st gen 7 1 68.00 53.60 0.00 10.80 770.4 7 2 66.20 51.80 0.00 9.00 779.4 7 3 71.60 48.20 0.00 10.11 789.5 7 4 86.00 57.20 0.00 21.60 811.1 7 5 82.40 64.40 0.00 23.40 834.5 7 6 77.00 60.80 0.00 18.90 853.4 7 7 69.80 57.20 0.00 13.50 866.9 7 8 77.00 55.40 0.00 16.20 883.1 7 9 71.60 57.20 0.00 14.40 897.5 7 10 69.80 57.20 0.00 13.50 911.0 7 11 78.80 57.20 0.00 18.00 929.0 7 12 82.40 53.60 0.00 18.00 947.0 7 13 80.60 57.20 0.00 18.90 965.9 7 14 91.40 57.20 0.00 23.84 989.7 7 15 87.80 57.20 0.00 22.50 1012.2 Peak egg laying by 1st gen females; max 2+ gens. 7 16 89.60 57.20 0.00 23.25 1035.5 7 17 84.20 57.20 0.00 20.70 1056.2 7 18 75.20 59.00 0.00 17.10 1073.3 7 19 69.80 55.40 0.00 12.60 1085.9 7 20 73.40 57.20 0.00 15.30 1101.2 7 21 75.20 50.00 0.00 12.60 1113.8 7 22 86.00 53.60 0.00 19.80 1133.6 7 23 87.80 59.00 0.00 23.40 1157.0 7 24 87.80 55.40 0.00 21.60 1178.6 7 25 87.80 57.20 0.00 22.50 1201.1 7 26 86.00 57.20 0.00 21.60 1222.7 7 27 86.00 60.80 0.00 23.40 1246.1 7 28 84.20 59.00 0.00 21.60 1267.7 Peak adult emerge 2nd gen; max 3+ gens. 7 29 93.20 59.00 0.00 25.23 1292.9 7 30 89.60 62.60 0.00 25.93 1318.8 7 31 77.00 60.80 0.00 18.90 1337.7 8 1 73.40 57.20 0.00 15.30 1353.0 8 2 68.00 55.40 0.00 11.70 1364.7 8 3 73.40 59.00 0.00 16.20 1380.9 8 4 78.80 53.60 0.00 16.20 1397.1 8 5 86.00 55.40 0.00 20.70 1417.8 8 6 87.80 57.20 0.00 22.50 1440.3 8 7 87.80 57.20 0.00 22.50 1462.8 8 8 95.00 60.80 0.00 26.53 1489.3 Peak egg laying by 2nd gen females; max 4+ gens. 8 9 93.20 60.80 0.00 26.10 1515.4 8 10 86.00 57.20 0.00 21.60 1537.0 8 11 71.60 60.80 0.00 16.20 1553.2 8 12 73.40 60.80 0.00 17.10 1570.3 8 13 78.80 55.40 0.00 17.10 1587.4 8 14 84.20 55.40 0.00 19.80 1607.2 8 15 84.20 55.40 0.00 19.80 1627.0 8 16 77.00 53.60 0.00 15.30 1642.3 8 17 73.40 53.60 0.00 13.50 1655.8 8 18 75.20 51.80 0.00 13.50 1669.3 8 19 77.00 53.60 0.00 15.30 1684.6 8 20 91.40 53.60 0.00 22.06 1706.7 8 21 75.70 54.20 0.00 14.95 1721.7 Hx Hn 8 22 80.60 57.20 0.00 18.90 1740.6 8 23 68.00 55.40 0.00 11.70 1752.3 Peak adult emerge 3rd gen; max 5 gens. 8 24 69.80 51.80 0.00 10.80 1763.1 8 25 60.80 51.80 0.00 6.30 1769.4 8 26 59.00 55.40 0.00 7.20 1776.6 8 27 78.80 51.80 0.00 15.30 1791.9 8 28 78.80 50.00 0.00 14.40 1806.3 8 29 69.80 53.60 0.00 11.70 1818.0 8 30 71.60 55.40 0.00 13.50 1831.5 8 31 68.00 51.80 0.00 9.90 1841.4 9 1 71.60 55.40 0.00 13.50 1854.9 9 2 71.60 48.20 0.00 10.11 1865.0 9 3 73.40 55.40 0.00 14.40 1879.4 9 4 78.80 46.40 0.00 13.11 1892.5 9 5 82.40 48.20 0.00 15.48 1908.0 9 6 84.20 53.60 0.00 18.90 1926.9 9 7 69.80 51.80 0.00 10.80 1937.7 9 8 66.20 55.40 0.00 10.80 1948.5 9 9 62.60 57.20 0.00 9.90 1958.4 9 10 64.40 53.60 0.00 9.00 1967.4 9 11 62.60 53.60 0.00 8.10 1975.5 9 12 62.60 53.60 0.00 8.10 1983.6 Peak egg laying by 3rd gen females; max 6+ gens. 9 13 66.20 53.60 0.00 9.90 1993.5 9 14 60.80 51.80 0.00 6.30 1999.8 9 15 60.80 53.60 0.00 7.20 2007.0 9 16 60.80 53.60 0.00 7.20 2014.2 9 17 64.40 48.20 0.00 6.56 2020.7 9 18 66.20 42.80 0.00 6.25 2027.0 9 19 66.20 46.40 0.00 6.96 2033.9 9 20 60.80 53.60 0.00 7.20 2041.1 9 21 59.00 51.80 0.00 5.40 2046.5 9 22 64.40 53.60 0.00 9.00 2055.5 9 23 57.20 48.20 0.00 3.05 2058.6 9 24 64.40 46.40 0.00 6.10 2064.7 9 25 68.00 44.60 0.00 7.43 2072.1 9 26 66.20 46.40 0.00 6.96 2079.1 9 27 71.60 44.60 0.00 9.15 2088.2 9 28 75.20 62.60 0.00 18.90 2107.1 9 29 68.00 57.20 0.00 12.60 2119.7 9 30 57.20 51.80 0.00 4.50 2124.2 10 1 59.00 51.80 0.00 5.40 2129.6 10 2 59.00 42.80 0.00 3.04 2132.7 10 3 51.80 37.40 0.00 0.27 2132.9 10 4 57.20 37.40 0.00 1.92 2134.9 10 5 57.20 41.00 0.00 2.14 2137.0 10 6 60.80 35.60 0.00 3.15 2140.2 10 7 53.60 46.40 0.00 1.15 2141.3 10 8 53.60 50.00 0.00 1.80 2143.1 10 9 64.40 48.20 0.00 6.56 2149.7 10 10 62.60 44.60 0.00 4.90 2154.6 10 11 62.60 39.20 0.00 4.19 2158.7 10 12 59.00 41.00 0.00 2.86 2161.6 10 13 66.20 41.00 0.00 5.98 2167.6 10 14 64.40 41.00 0.00 5.17 2172.8 10 15 66.20 42.80 0.00 6.25 2179.0 10 16 69.80 42.80 0.00 7.92 2186.9 10 17 69.80 44.60 0.00 8.29 2195.2 10 18 66.20 44.60 0.00 6.58 2201.8 10 19 66.20 41.00 0.00 5.98 2207.8 10 20 59.00 35.60 0.00 2.47 2210.2 10 21 64.40 35.60 0.00 4.58 2214.8 10 22 66.20 37.40 0.00 5.52 2220.3 10 23 53.60 37.40 0.00 0.74 2221.1 10 24 59.00 44.60 0.00 3.26 2224.3 10 25 55.40 50.00 0.00 2.70 2227.0 10 26 60.80 44.60 0.00 4.07 2231.1 10 27 57.20 39.20 0.00 2.02 2233.1 10 28 57.20 46.40 0.00 2.72 2235.9 10 29 51.80 46.40 0.00 0.46 2236.3 10 30 53.60 48.20 0.00 1.36 2237.7 Peak adult emerge 4th gen; max 6+ gens. 10 31 51.80 46.40 0.00 0.46 2238.1 11 1 59.00 51.80 0.00 5.40 2243.5 11 2 60.80 50.00 0.00 5.40 2248.9 11 3 53.60 50.00 0.00 1.80 2250.7 11 4 59.00 50.00 0.00 4.50 2255.2 11 5 53.60 46.40 0.00 1.15 2256.4 11 6 51.80 42.80 0.00 0.35 2256.7 11 7 51.80 35.60 0.00 0.26 2257.0 11 8 48.20 32.00 0.00 0.00 2257.0 11 9 42.80 35.60 0.00 0.00 2257.0 11 10 50.00 35.60 0.00 0.00 2257.0 11 11 50.00 32.00 0.00 0.00 2257.0 11 12 50.00 33.80 0.00 0.00 2257.0 11 13 50.00 32.00 0.00 0.00 2257.0 11 14 55.40 44.60 0.00 1.72 2258.7 11 15 53.60 42.80 0.00 0.92 2259.6 11 16 57.20 46.40 0.00 2.72 2262.3 11 17 50.00 35.60 0.00 0.00 2262.3 11 18 50.00 32.00 0.00 0.00 2262.3 11 19 51.80 30.20 0.00 0.22 2262.6 11 20 51.80 32.00 0.00 0.23 2262.8 11 21 46.40 41.00 0.00 0.00 2262.8 11 22 48.20 44.60 0.00 0.00 2262.8 11 23 48.20 42.80 0.00 0.00 2262.8 11 24 48.20 39.20 0.00 0.00 2262.8 11 25 48.20 39.20 0.00 0.00 2262.8 11 26 57.20 44.60 0.00 2.48 2265.3 11 27 62.60 48.20 0.00 5.67 2270.9 11 28 48.20 41.00 0.00 0.00 2270.9 11 29 50.00 42.80 0.00 0.00 2270.9 11 30 46.40 41.00 0.00 0.00 2270.9 12 1 46.40 33.80 0.00 0.00 2270.9 12 2 46.40 28.40 0.00 0.00 2270.9 12 3 44.60 30.20 0.00 0.00 2270.9 12 4 41.00 26.60 0.00 0.00 2270.9 12 5 42.80 26.60 0.00 0.00 2270.9 12 6 39.20 24.80 0.00 0.00 2270.9 12 7 41.00 24.80 0.00 0.00 2270.9 12 8 39.20 33.80 0.00 0.00 2270.9 12 9 42.80 35.60 0.00 0.00 2270.9 12 10 48.20 37.40 0.00 0.00 2270.9 12 11 48.20 39.20 0.00 0.00 2270.9 12 12 46.40 37.40 0.00 0.00 2270.9 12 13 44.60 39.20 0.00 0.00 2270.9 12 14 57.20 42.80 0.00 2.29 2273.2 12 15 46.40 35.60 0.00 0.00 2273.2 12 16 51.80 41.00 0.00 0.32 2273.5 12 17 51.80 44.60 0.00 0.39 2273.9 12 18 50.00 42.80 0.00 0.00 2273.9 12 19 48.20 42.80 0.00 0.00 2273.9 12 20 59.00 41.00 0.00 2.86 2276.8 12 21 42.80 32.00 0.00 0.00 2276.8 12 22 39.20 32.00 0.00 0.00 2276.8 12 23 44.60 37.40 0.00 0.00 2276.8 12 24 46.40 35.60 0.00 0.00 2276.8 12 25 41.00 32.00 0.00 0.00 2276.8 12 26 35.60 35.60 0.00 0.00 2276.8 12 27 41.00 35.60 0.00 0.00 2276.8 12 28 37.40 33.80 0.00 0.00 2276.8 12 29 50.00 37.40 0.00 0.00 2276.8 12 30 44.60 33.80 0.00 0.00 2276.8 12 31 41.00 32.00 0.00 0.00 2276.8 Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 CYXX PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021