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invasive insect model of OSU OIPMC model analysis vers. 3.0 |
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Output from uspest.org/wea invasive insect degree-day/phenology model program: Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================ Model species/general links: spotted wing Drosophila [fruit] Type: invasive insect Model source/other links: OSU OIPMC model analysis vers. 3.0 Calculation method: single sine Lower threshold: 50 degrees Fahrenheit Upper threshold: 88 degrees Fahrenheit Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1 Ending date: 9 15 Model validation status: partly validated-has been compared to 2 years of field data in PNW Region of known use: potential for use in US ==============================EVENTS TABLE================================ 1. 261 DDs after Jan 1: 1st egg laying by ow females 2. 510 DDs after Jan 1: Peak (ca. 50%) egg laying by ow females; 1st adult emerge 1st gen 3. 565 DDs after Jan 1: 1st egg laying by 1st gen females 4. 755 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 1st gen 5. 995 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 1st gen females; max 2+ gens. 6. 1249 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 2nd gen; max 3+ gens. 7. 1489 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 2nd gen females; max 4+ gens. 8. 1743 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 3rd gen; max 5 gens. 9. 1983 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 3rd gen females; max 6+ gens. 10. 2237 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 4th gen; max 6+ gens. 11. 2477 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 4th gen females; max 7+ gens. 12. 2731 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 5th gen; max 8+ gens. 13. 2971 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 5th gen females; max 9+ gens. ==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================ Weather station: 2018 KPOU METAR Poughkeepsie Dutchess NY Lat41.6267 Long:-73.8842 Elev:164 mn day max min precip DD50 CUMDD50 event -- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- ------- 1 1 16.00 -9.90 0.00 0.00 0.0 * START * 1 2 24.80 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 3 26.60 1.90 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 4 25.00 12.20 0.01 0.00 0.0 1 5 21.20 6.10 0.01 0.00 0.0 1 6 12.20 3.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 7 17.10 -14.80 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 8 28.90 12.20 0.01 0.00 0.0 1 9 39.90 19.90 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 10 39.20 8.10 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 11 48.90 24.80 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 12 62.60 42.80 1.26 4.62 4.6 1 13 59.00 14.00 3.63 1.74 6.4 1 14 21.20 8.60 0.00 0.00 6.4 1 15 27.00 8.10 0.00 0.00 6.4 1 16 28.90 19.40 0.19 0.00 6.4 1 17 30.90 23.00 0.12 0.00 6.4 1 18 26.60 -2.00 0.00 0.00 6.4 1 19 35.60 3.20 0.00 0.00 6.4 1 20 46.90 15.80 0.00 0.00 6.4 1 21 46.90 19.40 0.02 0.00 6.4 1 22 39.90 33.80 0.12 0.00 6.4 1 23 53.60 36.00 0.57 0.71 7.1 1 24 42.80 19.90 0.00 0.00 7.1 1 25 33.80 15.10 0.00 0.00 7.1 1 26 36.00 12.00 0.00 0.00 7.1 1 27 54.00 19.00 0.07 0.58 7.7 1 28 53.60 30.90 0.53 0.62 8.3 1 29 44.60 26.10 0.00 0.00 8.3 1 30 34.00 21.90 0.01 0.00 8.3 1 31 30.90 12.00 0.00 0.00 8.3 2 1 39.90 30.00 0.27 0.00 8.3 2 2 33.80 10.40 1.35 0.00 8.3 2 3 28.90 6.80 0.00 0.00 8.3 2 4 37.40 26.60 0.63 0.00 8.3 2 5 33.80 17.60 0.19 0.00 8.3 2 6 33.80 15.80 0.01 0.00 8.3 2 7 32.00 15.10 0.39 0.00 8.3 2 8 28.90 15.10 0.00 0.00 8.3 2 9 32.00 12.00 0.04 0.00 8.3 2 10 41.00 26.60 0.41 0.00 8.3 2 11 36.00 33.10 0.52 0.00 8.3 2 12 41.00 26.60 0.08 0.00 8.3 2 13 35.60 19.00 0.00 0.00 8.3 2 14 46.40 26.60 0.18 0.00 8.3 2 15 57.20 35.60 0.11 1.83 10.1 2 16 53.60 32.00 0.02 0.63 10.7 2 17 39.20 21.00 0.33 0.00 10.7 2 18 44.60 24.10 0.50 0.00 10.7 2 19 44.60 19.00 0.17 0.00 10.7 2 20 66.90 37.00 0.00 5.77 16.5 2 21 75.90 37.90 0.00 9.90 26.4 2 22 51.80 30.20 0.23 0.22 26.6 2 23 37.00 30.00 0.20 0.00 26.6 2 24 50.00 33.10 0.69 0.00 26.6 2 25 44.60 37.40 0.28 0.00 26.6 2 26 52.00 32.00 0.00 0.27 26.9 2 27 55.90 23.00 0.00 1.08 28.0 2 28 60.80 30.00 0.00 2.82 30.8 3 1 60.80 35.10 0.81 3.12 33.9 3 2 44.60 33.10 0.51 0.00 33.9 3 3 42.80 35.10 0.00 0.00 33.9 3 4 42.10 33.10 0.00 0.00 33.9 3 5 39.20 30.20 0.00 0.00 33.9 3 6 46.90 21.00 0.04 0.00 33.9 3 7 36.00 30.20 0.54 0.00 33.9 3 8 39.20 30.00 0.24 0.00 33.9 3 9 39.20 26.60 0.00 0.00 33.9 3 10 39.20 30.00 0.00 0.00 33.9 3 11 62.10 19.00 0.00 2.81 36.7 3 12 42.80 24.10 0.09 0.00 36.7 3 13 37.90 32.00 0.03 0.00 36.7 3 14 37.90 30.00 0.00 0.00 36.7 3 15 46.40 30.00 0.00 0.00 36.7 3 16 36.00 26.60 0.00 0.00 36.7 3 17 46.90 24.80 0.00 0.00 36.7 3 18 42.80 15.80 0.00 0.00 36.7 3 19 42.80 21.90 0.00 0.00 36.7 3 20 37.40 19.40 0.00 0.00 36.7 3 21 37.40 28.00 0.04 0.00 36.7 3 22 52.00 28.40 0.35 0.25 37.0 3 23 50.00 26.10 0.00 0.00 37.0 3 24 48.90 26.10 0.00 0.00 37.0 3 25 45.00 25.00 0.00 0.00 37.0 3 26 51.10 19.40 0.00 0.09 37.1 3 27 46.90 23.00 0.03 0.00 37.1 3 28 54.00 33.80 0.23 0.77 37.8 3 29 51.80 44.10 0.06 0.38 38.2 3 30 55.40 41.00 0.08 1.46 39.7 3 31 57.90 26.10 0.00 1.72 41.4 4 1 54.00 34.00 0.14 0.78 42.2 4 2 44.10 28.40 0.09 0.00 42.2 4 3 39.90 26.60 0.46 0.00 42.2 4 4 57.20 37.00 0.02 1.90 44.1 4 5 43.00 25.00 0.00 0.00 44.1 4 6 51.80 21.20 0.05 0.19 44.3 4 7 46.40 30.00 0.21 0.00 44.3 4 8 39.90 25.00 0.00 0.00 44.3 4 9 46.90 24.80 0.00 0.00 44.3 4 10 46.40 30.20 0.02 0.00 44.3 4 11 51.80 21.20 0.00 0.19 44.4 4 12 59.00 28.00 0.02 2.12 46.6 4 13 73.90 39.20 0.00 9.20 55.8 4 14 66.20 37.00 0.00 5.48 61.2 4 15 41.00 33.10 0.31 0.00 61.2 4 16 59.00 33.80 1.02 2.38 63.6 4 17 48.20 34.00 0.00 0.00 63.6 4 18 50.00 33.10 0.09 0.00 63.6 4 19 43.00 33.80 0.06 0.00 63.6 4 20 48.90 30.00 0.00 0.00 63.6 4 21 60.80 26.10 0.00 2.65 66.3 4 22 64.90 26.60 0.00 4.12 70.4 4 23 68.00 28.00 0.00 5.40 75.8 4 24 66.20 33.80 0.15 5.16 80.9 4 25 60.80 48.20 0.22 4.79 85.7 4 26 64.90 44.60 0.00 5.97 91.7 4 27 52.00 42.10 0.20 0.39 92.1 4 28 71.60 42.10 0.65 8.64 100.7 4 29 52.00 44.10 0.04 0.44 101.2 4 30 48.90 39.00 0.05 0.00 101.2 5 1 78.80 37.40 0.00 11.15 112.3 5 2 89.60 46.00 0.00 18.19 130.5 5 3 89.60 60.10 0.25 24.69 155.2 5 4 82.90 66.00 0.01 24.45 179.6 5 5 75.90 55.00 0.04 15.45 195.1 5 6 66.90 51.80 0.02 9.35 204.4 5 7 70.00 48.00 0.00 9.26 213.7 5 8 75.90 44.60 0.00 11.22 224.9 5 9 79.00 46.40 0.00 13.21 238.1 5 10 72.00 48.00 0.42 10.25 248.4 5 11 69.80 48.20 0.01 9.22 257.6 5 12 52.00 46.00 0.19 0.51 258.1 5 13 55.40 46.40 0.02 1.91 260.0 5 14 75.90 51.10 0.00 13.50 273.5 1st egg laying by ow females 5 15 89.60 54.00 1.21 21.66 295.2 5 16 66.20 53.10 0.10 9.65 304.8 5 17 73.90 57.00 0.03 15.45 320.3 5 18 71.60 51.80 0.05 11.70 332.0 5 19 55.90 46.40 0.58 2.13 334.1 5 20 78.80 54.00 0.21 16.40 350.5 5 21 78.80 46.40 0.00 13.11 363.6 5 22 66.20 53.60 0.13 9.90 373.5 5 23 82.00 55.00 0.54 18.50 392.0 5 24 82.40 48.20 0.00 15.48 407.5 5 25 88.00 51.10 0.00 19.55 427.0 5 26 88.00 61.00 0.00 24.50 451.5 5 27 70.00 55.00 0.05 12.50 464.0 5 28 71.60 53.60 0.00 12.60 476.6 5 29 90.00 64.00 0.00 26.76 503.4 5 30 82.40 60.10 0.00 21.25 524.7 Peak (ca. 50%) egg laying by ow females; 1st adult emerge 1st gen 5 31 73.90 60.10 0.01 17.00 541.7 6 1 84.90 66.20 0.55 25.55 567.2 1st egg laying by 1st gen females 6 2 82.00 66.00 0.02 24.00 591.2 6 3 70.00 53.10 0.60 11.55 602.8 6 4 69.80 50.00 4.80 9.90 612.7 6 5 68.00 48.20 0.07 8.33 621.0 6 6 66.90 46.40 0.00 7.30 628.3 6 7 73.40 55.40 0.00 14.40 642.7 6 8 82.90 53.60 0.00 18.25 660.9 6 9 78.10 53.60 0.00 15.85 676.8 6 10 70.00 53.60 0.00 11.80 688.6 6 11 75.20 51.10 0.00 13.15 701.7 6 12 78.80 46.00 0.00 13.00 714.7 6 13 75.20 53.10 0.07 14.15 728.9 6 14 82.40 62.60 0.13 22.50 751.4 6 15 73.40 55.00 0.00 14.20 765.6 Peak adult emerge 1st gen 6 16 84.20 48.20 0.00 16.37 782.0 6 17 89.60 51.80 0.00 20.56 802.5 6 18 93.90 62.10 0.24 26.90 829.4 6 19 84.90 60.10 0.35 22.50 851.9 6 20 80.60 57.20 0.00 18.90 870.8 6 21 86.00 64.40 0.00 25.20 896.0 6 22 78.80 55.40 0.00 17.10 913.1 6 23 66.20 62.10 0.00 14.15 927.3 6 24 82.90 62.60 0.86 22.75 950.0 6 25 78.10 53.10 0.11 15.60 965.6 6 26 76.80 48.00 0.00 12.62 978.2 Px 6 27 100.20 56.90 0.00 25.72 1004.0 Px Pn Peak egg laying by 1st gen females; max 2+ gens. 6 28 83.20 62.30 0.00 22.75 1026.7 Px Pn 6 29 90.00 61.00 0.00 25.28 1052.0 6 30 91.90 62.10 0.00 26.39 1078.4 7 1 93.90 68.00 0.00 29.73 1108.1 7 2 93.90 69.80 0.00 30.58 1138.7 7 3 93.90 71.10 0.00 31.19 1169.9 7 4 91.90 71.60 0.00 31.01 1200.9 7 5 90.00 69.80 0.00 29.63 1230.5 7 6 84.90 66.00 0.09 25.45 1256.0 Peak adult emerge 2nd gen; max 3+ gens. 7 7 79.00 51.10 0.00 15.05 1271.0 7 8 84.20 51.80 0.00 18.00 1289.0 7 9 89.60 55.40 0.00 22.35 1311.4 7 10 91.90 59.00 0.00 24.87 1336.2 7 11 86.00 60.10 0.00 23.05 1359.3 7 12 84.90 53.10 0.00 19.00 1378.3 7 13 89.10 57.00 0.00 22.96 1401.3 7 14 91.40 64.00 1.22 27.19 1428.4 7 15 86.00 69.80 0.79 27.90 1456.3 7 16 91.90 68.00 0.00 29.27 1485.6 7 17 87.80 69.10 1.67 28.45 1514.1 Peak egg laying by 2nd gen females; max 4+ gens. 7 18 82.40 57.90 0.15 20.15 1534.2 7 19 81.00 53.10 0.00 17.05 1551.3 7 20 82.90 55.40 0.00 19.15 1570.4 7 21 77.00 55.40 0.15 16.20 1586.6 7 22 82.90 64.40 0.84 23.65 1610.3 7 23 82.40 73.00 0.52 27.70 1638.0 7 24 84.90 73.40 0.19 29.15 1667.1 7 25 79.00 69.80 1.50 24.40 1691.5 7 26 86.00 68.00 2.17 27.00 1718.5 7 27 87.80 66.00 0.24 26.90 1745.4 Peak adult emerge 3rd gen; max 5 gens. 7 28 82.40 66.00 0.40 24.20 1769.6 7 29 81.00 62.10 0.00 21.55 1791.2 7 30 80.10 59.00 0.00 19.55 1810.7 7 31 82.40 62.10 0.00 22.25 1833.0 8 1 84.90 66.00 0.90 25.45 1858.4 8 2 86.00 69.80 0.69 27.90 1886.3 8 3 87.80 69.80 1.48 28.80 1915.1 8 4 86.00 69.80 0.06 27.90 1943.0 8 5 89.60 64.00 0.00 26.63 1969.6 8 6 90.00 66.20 0.00 27.85 1997.5 Peak egg laying by 3rd gen females; max 6+ gens. 8 7 90.00 71.10 0.00 30.27 2027.8 8 8 87.80 69.10 0.06 28.45 2056.2 8 9 86.00 64.90 0.02 25.45 2081.7 8 10 84.20 62.60 0.00 23.40 2105.1 8 11 73.90 68.00 0.95 20.95 2126.0 8 12 82.40 68.00 0.54 25.20 2151.2 8 13 75.20 69.10 0.44 22.15 2173.4 8 14 82.40 68.00 0.31 25.20 2198.6 8 15 88.00 64.00 0.00 26.00 2224.6 8 16 88.00 66.00 0.00 27.00 2251.6 Peak adult emerge 4th gen; max 6+ gens. 8 17 88.00 69.10 1.92 28.55 2280.1 8 18 84.90 66.90 0.43 25.90 2306.0 8 19 75.90 66.00 0.00 20.95 2327.0 8 20 78.80 62.60 0.00 20.70 2347.7 8 21 78.80 66.00 0.68 22.40 2370.1 8 22 82.90 66.00 0.02 24.45 2394.5 8 23 78.10 55.90 0.08 17.00 2411.5 8 24 82.40 55.00 0.00 18.70 2430.2 8 25 80.60 57.00 0.00 18.80 2449.0 8 26 84.20 59.00 0.00 21.60 2470.6 8 27 86.00 64.40 0.00 25.20 2495.8 Peak egg laying by 4th gen females; max 7+ gens. 8 28 93.20 71.10 0.00 31.05 2526.9 8 29 93.20 73.00 0.00 31.95 2558.8 8 30 87.80 68.00 0.00 27.90 2586.7 8 31 73.40 62.60 0.02 18.00 2604.7 9 1 75.20 62.60 0.00 18.90 2623.6 9 2 82.40 60.80 0.00 21.60 2645.2 9 3 91.40 68.00 0.00 29.14 2674.4 9 4 90.00 68.00 0.00 28.74 2703.1 9 5 91.40 64.40 0.00 27.38 2730.5 9 6 93.20 71.10 0.23 31.05 2761.5 Peak adult emerge 5th gen; max 8+ gens. 9 7 73.40 64.00 10.30 18.70 2780.2 9 8 64.90 53.10 0.00 9.00 2789.2 9 9 60.80 51.10 0.21 5.95 2795.2 9 10 59.00 51.80 1.12 5.40 2800.6 9 11 73.40 57.00 0.04 15.20 2815.8 9 12 73.40 66.20 0.28 19.80 2835.6 9 13 80.60 64.40 0.39 22.50 2858.1 9 14 75.20 66.00 0.00 20.60 2878.7 9 15 84.20 62.60 0.00 23.40 2902.1 Forecast using: 1910 KPOU PRISM_rev1_4km 2008-2017 AVERAGES Lat41.6267 Long-73.8842 DD50