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invasive insect model of OSU OIPMC model analysis vers. 3.0 |
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Output from uspest.org/wea invasive insect degree-day/phenology model program: Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================ Model species/general links: spotted wing Drosophila [fruit] Type: invasive insect Model source/other links: OSU OIPMC model analysis vers. 3.0 Calculation method: single sine Lower threshold: 50 degrees Fahrenheit Upper threshold: 88 degrees Fahrenheit Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1 Ending date: 9 15 Model validation status: partly validated-has been compared to 2 years of field data in PNW Region of known use: potential for use in US ==============================EVENTS TABLE================================ 1. 261 DDs after Jan 1: 1st egg laying by ow females 2. 510 DDs after Jan 1: Peak (ca. 50%) egg laying by ow females; 1st adult emerge 1st gen 3. 565 DDs after Jan 1: 1st egg laying by 1st gen females 4. 755 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 1st gen 5. 995 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 1st gen females; max 2+ gens. 6. 1249 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 2nd gen; max 3+ gens. 7. 1489 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 2nd gen females; max 4+ gens. 8. 1743 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 3rd gen; max 5 gens. 9. 1983 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 3rd gen females; max 6+ gens. 10. 2237 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 4th gen; max 6+ gens. 11. 2477 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 4th gen females; max 7+ gens. 12. 2731 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 5th gen; max 8+ gens. 13. 2971 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 5th gen females; max 9+ gens. ==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================ Weather station: 2018 KHWO METAR Hollywood N Perry Apt FL Lat:25.9989 Long:-80.2408 Elev:7 mn day max min precip DD50 CUMDD50 event -- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- ------- 1 1 81.00 57.20 0.00 19.10 19.1 * START * 1 2 70.00 57.20 0.81 13.60 32.7 1 3 69.80 50.00 0.04 9.90 42.6 1 4 60.80 41.00 0.00 3.61 46.2 1 5 64.40 41.00 0.00 5.17 51.4 1 6 72.00 48.00 0.00 10.25 61.6 1 7 73.90 51.10 0.02 12.50 74.1 1 8 78.80 64.00 0.61 21.40 95.5 1 9 78.10 66.00 0.22 22.05 117.6 1 10 78.10 64.90 0.09 21.50 139.1 1 11 82.90 66.20 0.06 24.55 163.6 1 12 84.20 71.10 0.11 27.65 191.3 1 13 77.00 57.00 0.00 17.00 208.3 1 14 75.20 50.00 0.00 12.60 220.9 1 15 74.80 51.80 0.00 13.30 234.2 Px 1 16 74.90 58.70 0.00 16.80 251.0 Px Pn 1 17 73.80 58.90 0.00 16.35 267.3 Px Pn 1st egg laying by ow females 1 18 57.20 42.80 0.00 2.29 269.6 1 19 72.00 48.00 0.00 10.25 279.9 1 20 77.00 57.20 0.00 17.10 297.0 1 21 81.00 68.00 0.00 24.50 321.5 1 22 81.00 69.80 0.00 25.40 346.9 1 23 84.20 73.00 0.00 28.60 375.5 1 24 82.00 69.10 0.00 25.55 401.0 1 25 78.80 64.00 0.00 21.40 422.4 1 26 78.10 69.80 0.00 23.95 446.4 1 27 81.00 69.10 0.02 25.05 471.4 1 28 82.40 73.00 0.00 27.70 499.1 1 29 82.90 69.10 0.06 26.00 525.1 Peak (ca. 50%) egg laying by ow females; 1st adult emerge 1st gen 1 30 73.40 53.10 0.00 13.25 538.4 1 31 73.90 51.80 0.00 12.85 551.2 2 1 79.00 57.20 0.00 18.10 569.3 1st egg laying by 1st gen females 2 2 82.90 60.10 0.04 21.50 590.8 2 3 77.00 64.40 0.04 20.70 611.5 2 4 82.00 69.10 0.02 25.55 637.1 2 5 84.20 69.80 0.00 27.00 664.1 2 6 81.00 68.00 0.00 24.50 688.6 2 7 84.00 71.60 0.00 27.80 716.4 2 8 84.20 68.00 0.11 26.10 742.5 2 9 82.90 71.60 0.81 27.25 769.7 Peak adult emerge 1st gen 2 10 82.90 71.60 0.00 27.25 797.0 2 11 84.20 75.00 0.00 29.60 826.6 2 12 84.90 73.00 0.00 28.95 855.5 2 13 84.90 73.00 0.00 28.95 884.5 2 14 82.90 71.10 0.01 27.00 911.5 2 15 82.90 64.00 0.00 23.45 934.9 2 16 84.90 62.10 0.00 23.50 958.4 2 17 84.90 62.60 0.00 23.75 982.2 2 18 84.90 68.00 0.00 26.45 1008.6 Peak egg laying by 1st gen females; max 2+ gens. 2 19 84.20 73.00 0.03 28.60 1037.2 2 20 84.90 73.40 0.26 29.15 1066.4 2 21 84.90 75.20 0.00 30.05 1096.4 2 22 86.00 73.40 0.01 29.70 1126.1 2 23 84.90 72.00 0.19 28.45 1154.6 2 24 84.20 71.60 0.62 27.90 1182.5 2 25 86.00 69.10 0.00 27.55 1210.0 2 26 87.80 71.10 0.00 29.45 1239.5 2 27 84.90 69.10 0.23 27.00 1266.5 Peak adult emerge 2nd gen; max 3+ gens. 2 28 82.90 69.80 0.00 26.35 1292.8 3 1 87.80 66.00 0.00 26.90 1319.7 3 2 89.60 69.10 0.00 29.16 1348.9 3 3 84.00 57.20 0.00 20.60 1369.5 3 4 80.60 57.20 0.00 18.90 1388.4 3 5 79.00 55.00 0.00 17.00 1405.4 3 6 80.60 57.20 0.00 18.90 1424.3 3 7 84.90 64.90 0.01 24.90 1449.2 3 8 75.20 55.40 0.00 15.30 1464.5 3 9 73.40 53.60 0.00 13.50 1478.0 3 10 77.00 55.40 0.03 16.20 1494.2 Peak egg laying by 2nd gen females; max 4+ gens. 3 11 89.10 69.10 0.00 28.99 1523.2 3 12 82.00 62.60 0.81 22.30 1545.5 3 13 75.90 51.10 0.00 13.50 1559.0 3 14 73.90 55.00 0.00 14.45 1573.4 3 15 77.00 48.00 0.00 12.72 1586.1 3 16 80.10 54.00 0.00 17.05 1603.2 3 17 82.40 60.10 0.00 21.25 1624.4 3 18 88.00 62.60 0.00 25.30 1649.7 3 19 89.60 66.20 0.00 27.72 1677.5 3 20 91.40 71.60 0.00 30.89 1708.4 3 21 82.40 59.00 0.00 20.70 1729.1 3 22 75.20 53.60 0.00 14.40 1743.5 Peak adult emerge 3rd gen; max 5 gens. 3 23 80.10 51.10 0.00 15.60 1759.1 3 24 78.80 57.20 0.00 18.00 1777.1 3 25 84.20 60.80 0.00 22.50 1799.6 3 26 86.00 64.00 0.00 25.00 1824.6 3 27 79.00 69.80 0.00 24.40 1849.0 3 28 80.60 69.80 0.00 25.20 1874.2 3 29 84.00 71.60 0.00 27.80 1902.0 3 30 86.00 71.10 0.00 28.55 1930.5 3 31 84.90 68.00 0.00 26.45 1957.0 4 1 84.90 73.00 0.00 28.95 1985.9 Peak egg laying by 3rd gen females; max 6+ gens. 4 2 86.00 68.00 0.00 27.00 2012.9 4 3 86.00 69.80 0.00 27.90 2040.8 4 4 87.80 69.80 0.00 28.80 2069.6 4 5 84.90 68.00 0.18 26.45 2096.1 4 6 84.90 69.10 0.00 27.00 2123.1 4 7 91.40 66.20 0.00 28.26 2151.3 4 8 91.40 71.60 0.00 30.89 2182.2 4 9 93.90 71.60 0.00 31.42 2213.6 4 10 93.20 71.60 0.36 31.29 2244.9 Peak adult emerge 4th gen; max 6+ gens. 4 11 87.10 69.10 0.00 28.10 2273.0 4 12 84.90 64.40 0.00 24.65 2297.7 4 13 84.20 71.10 0.00 27.65 2325.3 4 14 89.60 73.90 0.00 31.53 2356.9 4 15 89.60 73.00 0.23 31.09 2387.9 4 16 84.20 62.10 0.00 23.15 2411.1 4 17 82.40 59.00 0.00 20.70 2431.8 4 18 84.20 62.60 0.00 23.40 2455.2 4 19 86.00 64.40 0.00 25.20 2480.4 Peak egg laying by 4th gen females; max 7+ gens. 4 20 90.00 66.20 0.00 27.85 2508.2 4 21 86.00 71.10 0.40 28.55 2536.8 4 22 87.80 71.10 1.03 29.45 2566.2 4 23 86.00 73.90 0.31 29.95 2596.2 4 24 93.90 75.00 0.12 33.00 2629.2 4 25 88.00 69.10 1.39 28.55 2657.7 4 26 84.90 64.40 0.00 24.65 2682.4 4 27 87.80 71.10 0.47 29.45 2711.8 4 28 89.10 66.20 0.20 27.55 2739.4 Peak adult emerge 5th gen; max 8+ gens. 4 29 87.80 69.10 0.00 28.45 2767.8 4 30 86.00 71.60 0.00 28.80 2796.6 5 1 84.20 73.00 0.01 28.60 2825.2 5 2 84.90 75.00 0.03 29.95 2855.2 5 3 86.00 73.00 0.17 29.50 2884.7 5 4 84.90 73.00 1.34 28.95 2913.6 5 5 86.00 72.00 0.20 29.00 2942.6 5 6 89.60 75.00 0.07 32.07 2974.7 Peak egg laying by 5th gen females; max 9+ gens. 5 7 91.40 73.00 0.24 31.57 3006.3 5 8 88.00 73.40 0.00 30.70 3037.0 5 9 87.80 71.60 0.00 29.70 3066.7 5 10 86.00 69.80 0.00 27.90 3094.6 5 11 88.00 75.00 0.00 31.50 3126.1 5 12 82.90 75.20 0.05 29.05 3155.1 5 13 84.90 73.00 1.74 28.95 3184.1 5 14 84.90 71.10 0.48 28.00 3212.1 5 15 90.00 69.80 0.91 29.63 3241.7 5 16 88.00 71.60 0.31 29.80 3271.5 5 17 82.90 72.00 0.75 27.45 3299.0 5 18 87.10 73.00 0.26 30.05 3329.0 5 19 78.80 71.60 4.54 25.20 3354.2 5 20 81.00 71.10 1.27 26.05 3380.3 5 21 82.90 71.60 2.10 27.25 3407.5 5 22 82.90 77.00 0.01 29.95 3437.5 5 23 88.00 75.20 0.00 31.60 3469.1 5 24 88.00 73.00 0.23 30.50 3499.6 5 25 82.90 73.40 1.23 28.15 3527.7 5 26 80.60 73.00 0.89 26.80 3554.5 5 27 84.90 75.00 1.25 29.95 3584.5 5 28 84.20 75.20 0.25 29.70 3614.2 5 29 88.00 75.20 0.29 31.60 3645.8 5 30 90.00 78.10 0.00 33.70 3679.5 5 31 88.00 78.10 0.02 33.05 3712.5 6 1 89.60 75.20 0.00 32.17 3744.7 6 2 90.00 75.20 0.00 32.28 3777.0 6 3 95.00 78.80 0.00 34.85 3811.8 6 4 96.80 78.80 0.00 35.03 3846.8 6 5 96.80 78.80 0.00 35.03 3881.9 6 6 97.00 78.10 0.00 34.76 3916.6 6 7 91.90 73.00 0.87 31.68 3948.3 6 8 90.00 77.00 0.01 33.16 3981.5 6 9 88.00 75.20 0.10 31.60 4013.1 6 10 89.60 77.00 0.07 33.05 4046.1 6 11 87.10 75.00 0.08 31.05 4077.2 6 12 91.40 75.00 0.02 32.53 4109.7 6 13 90.00 77.00 0.00 33.16 4142.9 6 14 88.00 75.00 0.27 31.50 4174.4 6 15 91.40 75.00 0.09 32.53 4206.9 6 16 91.90 75.00 0.00 32.64 4239.5 6 17 93.00 78.80 0.00 34.59 4274.1 6 18 93.00 80.10 0.00 35.17 4309.3 6 19 91.40 77.00 0.00 33.48 4342.8 6 20 93.20 78.10 0.00 34.30 4377.1 6 21 97.00 80.10 0.01 35.58 4412.7 6 22 97.00 80.10 0.01 35.58 4448.3 6 23 91.90 75.00 1.83 32.64 4480.9 6 24 91.90 78.10 0.03 34.09 4515.0 6 25 91.90 78.10 0.00 34.09 4549.1 6 26 93.00 78.80 0.00 34.59 4583.7 Px 6 27 90.10 73.00 0.00 31.23 4614.9 PnHx 6 28 90.80 77.60 0.00 33.64 4648.5 Px Pn 6 29 86.00 77.00 0.46 31.50 4680.0 6 30 89.60 78.10 0.03 33.59 4713.6 7 1 91.90 78.10 0.15 34.09 4747.7 7 2 93.20 78.80 0.24 34.62 4782.3 7 3 91.90 77.00 0.39 33.58 4815.9 7 4 91.90 77.00 0.01 33.58 4849.5 7 5 91.90 78.10 0.00 34.09 4883.6 7 6 93.20 78.10 0.00 34.30 4917.9 7 7 93.20 78.10 0.00 34.30 4952.2 7 8 93.20 78.10 0.00 34.30 4986.5 7 9 95.00 78.80 0.00 34.85 5021.4 7 10 91.40 73.40 0.29 31.76 5053.1 7 11 91.40 77.00 0.46 33.48 5086.6 7 12 93.00 77.00 0.00 33.77 5120.4 7 13 95.00 77.00 0.00 34.06 5154.4 7 14 93.20 78.10 0.00 34.30 5188.7 7 15 93.90 78.80 0.00 34.71 5223.5 7 16 93.90 80.60 0.01 35.49 5258.9 7 17 95.00 80.10 0.00 35.40 5294.3 7 18 95.00 78.80 0.45 34.85 5329.2 7 19 97.00 80.10 0.00 35.58 5364.8 7 20 93.90 80.10 0.23 35.28 5400.1 7 21 97.00 80.10 0.02 35.58 5435.6 7 22 96.80 78.10 0.01 34.74 5470.4 7 23 96.80 78.80 0.24 35.03 5505.4 7 24 90.00 78.80 0.02 34.03 5539.4 7 25 95.00 78.10 1.07 34.55 5574.0 7 26 93.90 78.10 0.52 34.40 5608.4 7 27 91.40 78.10 0.25 34.00 5642.4 7 28 91.40 78.10 0.74 34.00 5676.4 7 29 86.00 75.20 0.25 30.60 5707.0 7 30 86.00 77.00 0.40 31.50 5738.5 7 31 91.90 77.00 0.00 33.58 5772.1 8 1 91.90 80.60 0.00 35.24 5807.3 8 2 91.90 78.80 0.28 34.42 5841.7 8 3 91.90 75.20 0.12 32.73 5874.5 8 4 91.90 78.10 0.02 34.09 5908.6 8 5 91.40 80.10 0.42 34.93 5943.5 8 6 93.20 78.10 0.13 34.30 5977.8 8 7 91.90 77.00 1.54 33.58 6011.4 8 8 93.90 80.10 0.00 35.28 6046.6 8 9 93.90 75.20 0.66 33.09 6079.7 8 10 95.00 75.00 1.66 33.17 6112.9 8 11 91.90 73.40 0.43 31.87 6144.8 8 12 90.00 75.00 0.19 32.19 6177.0 8 13 91.90 75.00 1.58 32.64 6209.6 8 14 91.90 78.80 0.04 34.42 6244.0 8 15 91.90 78.80 0.01 34.42 6278.4 8 16 93.20 80.10 0.04 35.20 6313.6 8 17 93.20 81.00 0.16 35.59 6349.2 8 18 91.90 78.10 0.64 34.09 6383.3 8 19 91.90 78.10 6.39 34.09 6417.4 8 20 93.20 78.80 0.00 34.62 6452.0 8 21 93.00 78.80 0.00 34.59 6486.6 8 22 91.90 77.00 0.60 33.58 6520.2 8 23 91.90 77.00 0.73 33.58 6553.8 8 24 91.90 78.80 0.49 34.42 6588.2 8 25 90.00 77.00 0.47 33.16 6621.4 8 26 91.40 75.20 0.05 32.62 6654.0 8 27 91.90 78.80 0.43 34.42 6688.4 8 29 91.90 78.80 0.12 34.42 6722.8 8 30 91.40 78.10 0.85 34.00 6756.8 8 31 91.40 80.10 0.38 34.93 6791.7 9 1 90.00 77.00 0.37 33.16 6824.9 9 2 87.80 75.00 0.47 31.40 6856.3 9 3 82.40 75.20 1.20 28.80 6885.1 9 4 90.00 78.10 0.20 33.70 6918.8 9 5 91.40 78.10 0.36 34.00 6952.8 9 6 90.00 77.00 0.17 33.16 6986.0 9 7 87.80 75.00 0.39 31.40 7017.4 9 8 87.80 75.20 0.00 31.50 7048.9 9 9 91.40 77.00 0.03 33.48 7082.3 9 10 89.60 78.10 0.00 33.59 7115.9 9 11 91.40 78.80 0.00 34.33 7150.3 9 12 93.20 80.10 0.00 35.20 7185.5 9 13 91.90 80.60 0.00 35.24 7220.7 9 14 93.20 75.20 2.54 32.98 7253.7 9 15 91.90 78.10 0.00 34.09 7287.8 Forecast using: 1910 KHWO PRISM_rev1_4km 2008-2017 AVERAGES Lat25.9989 Long-80.2408 DD50