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invasive insect model of OSU OIPMC model analysis vers. 3.0 |
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Output from uspest.org/wea invasive insect degree-day/phenology model program: Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================ Model species/general links: spotted wing Drosophila [fruit] Type: invasive insect Model source/other links: OSU OIPMC model analysis vers. 3.0 Calculation method: single sine Lower threshold: 50 degrees Fahrenheit Upper threshold: 88 degrees Fahrenheit Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1 Ending date: 9 15 Model validation status: partly validated-has been compared to 2 years of field data in PNW Region of known use: potential for use in US ==============================EVENTS TABLE================================ 1. 261 DDs after Jan 1: 1st egg laying by ow females 2. 510 DDs after Jan 1: Peak (ca. 50%) egg laying by ow females; 1st adult emerge 1st gen 3. 565 DDs after Jan 1: 1st egg laying by 1st gen females 4. 755 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 1st gen 5. 995 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 1st gen females; max 2+ gens. 6. 1249 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 2nd gen; max 3+ gens. 7. 1489 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 2nd gen females; max 4+ gens. 8. 1743 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 3rd gen; max 5 gens. 9. 1983 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 3rd gen females; max 6+ gens. 10. 2237 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 4th gen; max 6+ gens. 11. 2477 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 4th gen females; max 7+ gens. 12. 2731 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 5th gen; max 8+ gens. 13. 2971 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 5th gen females; max 9+ gens. ==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================ Weather station: 2018 KCRW METAR Charleston Yeager Apt WV Lat:38.3792 Long:-81.5914 Elev:981 mn day max min precip DD50 CUMDD50 event -- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- ------- 1 1 19.40 5.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 * START * 1 2 21.20 -2.20 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 3 32.00 -0.40 0.05 0.00 0.0 1 4 23.00 14.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 5 19.40 10.40 11.18 0.00 0.0 1 6 17.60 1.90 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 7 37.90 -0.90 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 8 39.20 26.10 0.34 0.00 0.0 1 9 48.20 30.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 10 66.90 30.00 0.00 5.12 5.1 1 11 71.60 42.10 0.88 8.64 13.8 1 12 66.20 30.00 0.99 4.84 18.6 1 13 30.20 15.80 0.01 0.00 18.6 1 14 23.00 12.20 0.01 0.00 18.6 1 15 39.90 10.00 0.00 0.00 18.6 1 16 35.60 12.90 0.14 0.00 18.6 1 17 14.00 6.80 0.03 0.00 18.6 1 18 30.90 6.80 0.00 0.00 18.6 1 19 43.00 14.00 0.00 0.00 18.6 1 20 55.90 26.60 0.00 1.15 19.7 1 21 61.00 42.80 0.00 3.91 23.7 1 22 68.00 48.00 0.14 8.27 31.9 1 23 63.00 37.90 0.79 4.22 36.1 1 24 39.20 30.00 0.13 0.00 36.1 1 25 44.60 26.60 0.00 0.00 36.1 1 26 60.10 23.00 0.00 2.30 38.5 1 27 62.60 30.20 0.65 3.48 41.9 1 28 51.80 41.00 0.02 0.32 42.3 1 29 50.00 28.40 0.07 0.00 42.3 1 30 32.00 18.00 0.13 0.00 42.3 1 31 52.00 17.10 0.00 0.20 42.5 2 1 53.10 32.00 0.77 0.51 43.0 2 2 33.80 12.00 0.35 0.00 43.0 2 3 37.40 10.40 0.04 0.00 43.0 2 4 41.00 32.00 0.39 0.00 43.0 2 5 37.40 19.00 0.59 0.00 43.0 2 6 34.00 21.20 0.40 0.00 43.0 2 7 46.90 27.00 0.42 0.00 43.0 2 8 37.40 24.10 0.02 0.00 43.0 2 9 54.00 24.10 0.00 0.63 43.6 2 10 55.40 35.60 0.88 1.23 44.8 2 11 64.90 39.00 0.49 5.14 50.0 2 12 39.90 30.00 0.04 0.00 50.0 2 13 46.90 28.00 0.01 0.00 50.0 2 14 61.00 39.00 0.28 3.50 53.5 2 15 73.40 59.00 0.74 16.20 69.7 2 16 70.00 37.90 0.84 7.24 76.9 2 17 42.80 32.00 0.57 0.00 76.9 2 18 51.10 35.60 0.19 0.13 77.0 2 19 75.20 35.60 0.01 9.24 86.3 2 20 81.00 60.80 0.00 20.90 107.2 2 21 79.00 52.00 0.10 15.50 122.7 2 22 53.60 46.40 0.08 1.15 123.8 2 23 75.90 48.00 0.26 12.18 136.0 2 24 62.60 55.00 1.27 8.80 144.8 2 25 66.20 46.90 3.49 7.09 151.9 2 26 55.90 35.10 0.00 1.38 153.3 2 27 64.40 28.00 0.00 4.02 157.3 2 28 60.80 42.10 0.12 3.74 161.0 3 1 59.00 41.00 0.47 2.86 163.9 3 2 44.60 32.00 0.08 0.00 163.9 3 3 48.00 26.10 0.00 0.00 163.9 3 4 50.00 26.10 0.00 0.00 163.9 3 5 51.80 26.10 0.02 0.20 164.1 3 6 55.40 35.60 0.16 1.23 165.3 3 7 44.60 33.10 0.11 0.00 165.3 3 8 37.00 28.40 0.02 0.00 165.3 3 9 44.60 26.60 0.08 0.00 165.3 3 10 44.60 30.00 0.01 0.00 165.3 3 11 54.00 26.10 0.36 0.65 166.0 3 12 43.00 30.00 0.03 0.00 166.0 3 13 39.20 30.00 0.07 0.00 166.0 3 14 32.00 24.80 0.01 0.00 166.0 3 15 55.90 30.00 0.00 1.22 167.2 3 16 46.40 28.40 0.02 0.00 167.2 3 17 42.80 26.10 0.36 0.00 167.2 3 18 59.00 33.10 0.00 2.34 169.5 3 19 66.90 32.00 0.16 5.28 174.8 3 20 48.90 42.10 0.48 0.00 174.8 3 21 39.20 32.00 0.41 0.00 174.8 3 22 46.90 30.00 0.00 0.00 174.8 3 23 51.10 26.10 0.00 0.10 174.9 3 24 39.90 26.10 0.00 0.00 174.9 3 25 53.60 30.20 0.00 0.61 175.5 3 26 60.80 37.00 0.23 3.25 178.8 3 27 63.00 41.00 0.06 4.56 183.3 3 28 63.00 55.40 0.65 9.20 192.5 3 29 78.80 55.00 0.49 16.90 209.4 3 30 60.80 33.10 0.03 2.99 212.4 3 31 62.60 28.40 0.03 3.38 215.8 4 1 53.10 42.80 0.46 0.75 216.6 4 2 50.00 37.40 0.01 0.00 216.6 4 3 75.90 44.10 0.95 11.10 227.7 4 4 73.40 33.10 5.84 8.12 235.8 4 5 53.10 26.60 0.00 0.46 236.2 4 6 69.80 37.00 0.13 7.03 243.3 4 7 44.60 28.90 0.57 0.00 243.3 4 8 48.90 24.10 0.20 0.00 243.3 4 9 44.60 32.00 0.01 0.00 243.3 4 10 48.20 32.00 0.00 0.00 243.3 4 11 64.40 35.60 0.00 4.58 247.9 4 12 80.60 42.10 0.00 12.90 260.8 4 13 87.80 52.00 0.00 19.90 280.7 1st egg laying by ow females 4 14 88.00 53.60 0.00 20.80 301.5 4 15 75.20 46.90 1.59 11.49 312.9 4 16 48.20 33.10 0.10 0.00 312.9 4 17 55.90 32.00 0.01 1.28 314.2 4 18 79.00 35.10 0.03 10.88 325.1 4 19 62.60 37.00 0.04 3.97 329.1 4 20 60.10 30.00 0.00 2.58 331.7 4 21 72.00 30.00 0.00 7.19 338.8 4 22 71.60 42.80 0.00 8.77 347.6 4 23 64.40 51.10 0.22 7.75 355.4 4 24 61.00 51.80 0.25 6.40 361.8 4 25 59.00 50.00 0.05 4.50 366.3 4 26 66.20 44.60 0.01 6.58 372.8 4 27 73.40 50.00 0.08 11.70 384.5 4 28 69.80 42.80 0.00 7.92 392.5 4 29 60.80 35.60 0.00 3.15 395.6 4 30 72.00 33.80 0.00 7.60 403.2 5 1 84.90 35.60 0.00 13.66 416.9 5 2 87.80 48.20 0.00 18.16 435.0 5 3 90.00 57.00 0.00 23.29 458.3 5 4 75.90 63.00 0.20 19.45 477.8 5 5 69.80 60.80 1.02 15.30 493.1 5 6 71.60 53.10 0.47 12.35 505.4 5 7 73.40 51.80 0.08 12.60 518.0 Peak (ca. 50%) egg laying by ow females; 1st adult emerge 1st gen 5 8 80.60 50.00 0.00 15.30 533.3 5 9 84.20 51.80 0.00 18.00 551.3 5 10 82.40 63.00 0.00 22.70 574.0 1st egg laying by 1st gen females 5 11 87.80 55.40 0.00 21.60 595.6 5 12 88.00 62.10 0.00 25.05 620.7 5 13 88.00 62.10 0.00 25.05 645.7 5 14 90.00 63.00 0.00 26.27 672.0 5 15 91.90 64.00 0.16 27.32 699.3 5 16 77.00 64.40 0.01 20.70 720.0 5 17 82.90 66.00 0.00 24.45 744.5 5 18 78.80 64.00 0.00 21.40 765.9 Peak adult emerge 1st gen 5 19 84.20 66.00 0.64 25.10 791.0 5 20 87.80 62.10 0.00 24.95 815.9 5 21 88.00 62.60 0.20 25.30 841.2 5 22 82.40 64.90 0.93 23.65 864.9 5 23 78.80 57.90 4.87 18.35 883.2 5 24 86.00 53.60 0.00 19.80 903.0 5 25 88.00 60.80 0.00 24.40 927.4 5 26 84.20 64.40 0.06 24.30 951.7 5 27 86.00 66.00 0.11 26.00 977.7 5 28 88.00 66.00 1.33 27.00 1004.7 Peak egg laying by 1st gen females; max 2+ gens. 5 29 86.00 68.00 0.10 27.00 1031.7 5 30 87.80 71.10 0.01 29.45 1061.2 5 31 87.10 66.00 0.19 26.55 1087.7 6 1 82.40 64.40 0.25 23.40 1111.1 6 2 82.90 66.90 0.06 24.90 1136.0 6 3 84.20 64.00 0.55 24.10 1160.1 6 4 78.80 57.00 0.00 17.90 1178.0 6 5 81.00 51.80 0.01 16.40 1194.4 6 6 73.90 53.10 0.02 13.50 1207.9 6 7 82.90 48.20 0.00 15.72 1223.6 6 8 88.00 57.20 0.00 22.60 1246.2 6 9 90.00 62.60 0.00 26.07 1272.3 Peak adult emerge 2nd gen; max 3+ gens. 6 10 88.00 64.40 0.00 26.20 1298.5 6 11 75.90 69.80 0.12 22.85 1321.4 6 12 82.40 64.00 0.14 23.20 1344.6 6 13 80.60 64.40 0.00 22.50 1367.1 6 14 86.00 61.00 0.00 23.50 1390.6 6 15 86.00 55.00 0.00 20.50 1411.1 6 16 89.60 59.00 0.00 24.14 1435.2 6 17 93.20 64.00 0.00 27.65 1462.9 6 18 95.00 66.20 0.00 29.10 1492.0 Peak egg laying by 2nd gen females; max 4+ gens. 6 19 93.90 71.10 0.88 31.19 1523.1 6 20 88.00 68.00 0.01 28.00 1551.1 6 21 82.40 69.10 1.49 25.75 1576.9 6 22 84.20 68.00 0.31 26.10 1603.0 6 23 82.00 66.20 0.01 24.10 1627.1 6 24 84.20 66.20 0.64 25.20 1652.3 6 25 80.60 66.00 0.09 23.30 1675.6 6 26 82.30 66.20 0.00 24.25 1699.8 Px 6 27 120.80 59.30 0.00 29.22 1729.1 Px Pn 6 28 86.20 66.20 0.00 26.20 1755.3 Px Pn Peak adult emerge 3rd gen; max 5 gens. 6 29 89.60 64.00 0.00 26.63 1781.9 6 30 93.20 64.00 0.00 27.65 1809.5 7 1 93.90 69.10 0.42 30.25 1839.8 7 2 90.00 69.80 0.00 29.63 1869.4 7 3 91.90 69.80 0.00 30.14 1899.6 7 4 95.00 70.00 0.41 30.88 1930.4 7 5 93.20 68.00 0.44 29.58 1960.0 7 6 80.10 66.00 0.57 23.05 1983.1 Peak egg laying by 3rd gen females; max 6+ gens. 7 7 84.20 60.80 0.00 22.50 2005.6 7 8 86.00 60.80 0.00 23.40 2029.0 7 9 87.80 60.80 0.00 24.30 2053.3 7 10 90.00 64.40 0.00 26.96 2080.2 7 11 86.00 66.00 0.00 26.00 2106.2 7 12 87.10 60.80 0.00 23.95 2130.2 7 13 90.00 66.00 0.00 27.75 2157.9 7 14 93.00 68.00 0.00 29.53 2187.5 7 15 89.60 71.10 0.00 30.15 2217.6 7 16 84.90 71.10 2.08 28.00 2245.6 Peak adult emerge 4th gen; max 6+ gens. 7 17 86.00 66.00 0.03 26.00 2271.6 7 18 82.40 60.80 0.00 21.60 2293.2 7 19 86.00 55.40 0.00 20.70 2313.9 7 20 86.00 64.00 1.28 25.00 2338.9 7 21 84.90 64.00 0.02 24.45 2363.4 7 22 73.90 64.40 1.57 19.15 2382.5 7 23 87.80 64.40 0.32 26.10 2408.6 7 24 82.40 66.20 0.15 24.30 2432.9 7 25 87.80 69.10 0.00 28.45 2461.4 7 26 87.80 66.20 0.00 27.00 2488.4 Peak egg laying by 4th gen females; max 7+ gens. 7 27 81.00 66.20 0.51 23.60 2512.0 7 28 80.60 64.00 0.00 22.30 2534.3 7 29 84.20 60.10 0.00 22.15 2556.4 7 30 82.90 64.40 0.86 23.65 2580.1 7 31 82.90 66.00 0.09 24.45 2604.5 8 1 75.90 69.10 0.24 22.50 2627.0 8 2 82.40 68.00 0.19 25.20 2652.2 8 3 82.90 66.90 0.01 24.90 2677.1 8 4 89.60 64.00 0.00 26.63 2703.7 8 5 91.00 66.20 0.00 28.15 2731.9 Peak adult emerge 5th gen; max 8+ gens. 8 6 90.00 68.00 0.00 28.74 2760.6 8 7 89.60 71.10 0.23 30.15 2790.8 8 8 88.00 68.00 0.04 28.00 2818.8 8 9 87.80 69.10 0.00 28.45 2847.2 8 10 84.90 64.40 0.00 24.65 2871.9 8 11 86.00 68.00 0.00 27.00 2898.9 8 12 84.90 68.00 0.01 26.45 2925.3 8 13 81.00 62.60 0.74 21.80 2947.1 8 14 84.20 60.80 0.00 22.50 2969.6 8 15 87.80 62.10 0.00 24.95 2994.6 Peak egg laying by 5th gen females; max 9+ gens. 8 16 88.00 66.20 0.82 27.10 3021.7 8 17 82.90 69.10 1.18 26.00 3047.7 8 18 75.20 69.80 0.22 22.50 3070.2 8 19 84.20 69.10 0.00 26.65 3096.8 8 20 87.80 66.90 0.00 27.35 3124.2 8 21 84.90 69.10 0.12 27.00 3151.2 8 22 79.00 59.00 1.15 19.00 3170.2 8 23 79.00 55.00 0.00 17.00 3187.2 8 24 82.40 53.60 0.00 18.00 3205.2 8 25 82.90 60.80 0.07 21.85 3227.0 8 26 86.00 66.00 0.51 26.00 3253.0 8 27 91.90 69.10 0.00 29.80 3282.8 8 28 91.00 69.10 0.00 29.57 3312.4 8 29 89.10 69.10 0.00 28.99 3341.4 8 30 82.90 69.10 0.02 26.00 3367.4 8 31 89.60 66.20 0.00 27.72 3395.1 9 1 88.00 68.00 3.05 28.00 3423.1 9 2 91.40 66.00 0.00 28.16 3451.3 9 3 91.90 68.00 0.00 29.27 3480.5 9 4 93.20 69.10 0.00 30.10 3510.6 9 5 90.00 69.10 0.00 29.28 3539.9 9 6 91.40 71.10 0.00 30.65 3570.6 9 7 89.60 69.10 0.04 29.16 3599.7 9 8 84.20 64.90 0.44 24.55 3624.3 9 9 84.90 64.40 2.06 24.65 3648.9 9 10 69.80 62.10 0.24 15.95 3664.9 9 11 71.60 60.80 0.00 16.20 3681.1 9 12 82.90 62.60 0.00 22.75 3703.8 9 13 90.00 66.20 0.00 27.85 3731.7 9 14 90.00 66.20 0.27 27.85 3759.5 9 15 84.90 66.20 0.00 25.55 3785.1 Forecast using: 1910 KCRW PRISM_rev1_4km 2008-2017 AVERAGES Lat38.3792 Long-81.5914 DD50