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invasive insect model of OSU OIPMC model analysis vers. 3.0 |
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Output from uspest.org/wea invasive insect degree-day/phenology model program: Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================ Model species/general links: spotted wing Drosophila [fruit] Type: invasive insect Model source/other links: OSU OIPMC model analysis vers. 3.0 Calculation method: single sine Lower threshold: 50 degrees Fahrenheit Upper threshold: 88 degrees Fahrenheit Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1 Ending date: 9 15 Model validation status: partly validated-has been compared to 2 years of field data in PNW Region of known use: potential for use in US ==============================EVENTS TABLE================================ 1. 261 DDs after Jan 1: 1st egg laying by ow females 2. 510 DDs after Jan 1: Peak (ca. 50%) egg laying by ow females; 1st adult emerge 1st gen 3. 565 DDs after Jan 1: 1st egg laying by 1st gen females 4. 755 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 1st gen 5. 995 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 1st gen females; max 2+ gens. 6. 1249 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 2nd gen; max 3+ gens. 7. 1489 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 2nd gen females; max 4+ gens. 8. 1743 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 3rd gen; max 5 gens. 9. 1983 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 3rd gen females; max 6+ gens. 10. 2237 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 4th gen; max 6+ gens. 11. 2477 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 4th gen females; max 7+ gens. 12. 2731 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 5th gen; max 8+ gens. 13. 2971 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 5th gen females; max 9+ gens. ==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================ Weather station: 2018 C9002 APRSWXNET Greensburg CW9002 PA Lat40.3189 Long:-79.5489 Elev:1138 mn day max min precip DD50 CUMDD50 event -- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- ------- 1 1 12.00 -10.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 * START * 1 2 15.00 3.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 3 27.00 -7.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 4 15.00 4.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 5 9.00 -3.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 6 9.00 -5.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 7 26.00 -10.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 8 36.00 20.00 0.24 0.00 0.0 1 9 40.00 23.00 0.12 0.00 0.0 1 10 49.00 23.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 11 65.00 34.00 0.47 4.69 4.7 1 12 65.00 34.00 0.53 4.69 9.4 1 13 34.00 4.00 0.04 0.00 9.4 1 14 19.00 -4.00 0.00 0.00 9.4 1 15 28.00 3.00 0.00 0.00 9.4 1 16 31.00 13.00 0.00 0.00 9.4 1 17 17.00 3.00 0.00 0.00 9.4 1 18 28.00 4.00 0.00 0.00 9.4 1 19 38.00 18.00 0.08 0.00 9.4 1 20 49.00 28.00 0.04 0.00 9.4 1 21 51.00 30.00 0.04 0.09 9.5 1 22 64.00 44.00 0.29 5.44 14.9 1 23 55.00 36.00 0.04 1.12 16.0 1 24 36.00 26.00 0.00 0.00 16.0 1 25 27.00 20.00 0.00 0.00 16.0 1 26 55.00 18.00 0.00 0.79 16.8 1 27 55.00 26.00 0.35 0.90 17.7 1 28 49.00 27.00 0.16 0.00 17.7 1 29 44.00 24.00 0.00 0.00 17.7 1 30 32.00 10.00 0.00 0.00 17.7 1 31 41.00 3.00 0.12 0.00 17.7 2 1 46.00 32.00 0.12 0.00 17.7 2 2 29.00 10.00 0.00 0.00 17.7 2 3 27.00 9.00 0.00 0.00 17.7 2 4 38.00 28.00 0.39 0.00 17.7 2 5 36.00 14.00 0.04 0.00 17.7 2 6 28.00 21.00 0.44 0.00 17.7 2 7 35.00 20.00 0.16 0.00 17.7 2 8 24.00 15.00 0.00 0.00 17.7 2 9 39.00 13.00 0.12 0.00 17.7 2 10 49.00 32.00 0.35 0.00 17.7 2 11 61.00 38.00 0.33 3.41 21.1 2 12 39.00 22.00 0.08 0.00 21.1 2 13 47.00 17.00 0.00 0.00 21.1 2 14 58.00 37.00 0.81 2.19 23.3 2 15 62.00 58.00 2.32 10.00 33.3 2 16 62.00 27.00 0.04 3.10 36.4 2 17 36.00 23.00 0.00 0.00 36.4 2 18 40.00 29.00 0.69 0.00 36.4 2 19 60.00 29.00 0.21 2.50 38.9 2 20 79.00 51.00 0.00 15.00 53.9 2 21 71.00 45.00 1.74 8.95 62.9 2 22 45.00 40.00 0.25 0.00 62.9 2 23 65.00 42.00 0.25 5.58 68.4 2 24 59.00 48.00 0.52 3.87 72.3 2 25 59.00 43.00 0.08 3.07 75.4 2 26 53.00 30.00 0.00 0.47 75.8 2 27 58.00 24.00 0.00 1.69 77.5 2 28 64.00 30.00 0.00 4.00 81.5 3 1 55.00 36.00 0.70 1.12 82.6 3 2 41.00 27.00 0.04 0.00 82.6 3 3 45.00 20.00 0.00 0.00 82.6 3 4 46.00 18.00 0.00 0.00 82.6 3 5 45.00 17.00 0.00 0.00 82.6 3 6 41.00 24.00 0.08 0.00 82.6 3 7 39.00 29.00 0.08 0.00 82.6 3 8 34.00 22.00 0.00 0.00 82.6 3 9 30.00 21.00 0.04 0.00 82.6 3 10 43.00 13.00 0.04 0.00 82.6 3 11 46.00 15.00 0.00 0.00 82.6 3 12 42.00 25.00 0.00 0.00 82.6 3 13 35.00 23.00 0.00 0.00 82.6 3 14 28.00 22.00 0.00 0.00 82.6 3 15 41.00 25.00 0.00 0.00 82.6 3 16 36.00 20.00 0.00 0.00 82.6 3 17 37.00 15.00 0.00 0.00 82.6 3 18 54.00 16.00 0.00 0.56 83.2 3 19 59.00 23.00 0.00 1.96 85.2 3 20 41.00 29.00 0.00 0.00 85.2 3 21 32.00 25.00 0.00 0.00 85.2 3 22 41.00 16.00 0.31 0.00 85.2 3 23 40.00 15.00 0.00 0.00 85.2 3 24 43.00 18.00 0.00 0.00 85.2 3 25 42.00 20.00 0.00 0.00 85.2 3 26 51.00 25.00 0.33 0.08 85.3 3 27 49.00 35.00 0.47 0.00 85.3 3 28 57.00 49.00 0.24 3.15 88.4 3 29 68.00 54.00 0.52 11.00 99.4 3 30 60.00 31.00 0.28 2.59 102.0 3 31 57.00 26.00 0.00 1.45 103.4 4 1 50.00 35.00 0.00 0.00 103.4 4 2 41.00 32.00 0.04 0.00 103.4 4 3 58.00 32.00 0.37 1.95 105.4 4 4 59.00 29.00 0.16 2.16 107.5 4 5 36.00 26.00 0.00 0.00 107.5 4 6 56.00 34.00 0.00 1.37 108.9 4 7 34.00 24.00 0.00 0.00 108.9 4 8 39.00 23.00 0.00 0.00 108.9 4 9 34.00 26.00 0.00 0.00 108.9 4 10 45.00 26.00 0.00 0.00 108.9 4 11 55.00 31.00 0.00 0.99 109.9 4 12 76.00 37.00 0.00 9.80 119.7 4 13 85.00 56.00 0.00 20.50 140.2 4 14 84.00 47.00 0.00 15.87 156.1 4 15 70.00 46.00 1.86 8.70 164.8 4 16 47.00 31.00 0.04 0.00 164.8 4 17 35.00 31.00 0.12 0.00 164.8 4 18 47.00 28.00 0.31 0.00 164.8 4 19 46.00 31.00 0.31 0.00 164.8 4 20 54.00 25.00 0.00 0.64 165.4 4 21 57.00 25.00 0.00 1.42 166.8 4 22 71.00 42.00 0.00 8.34 175.2 4 23 72.00 42.00 0.16 8.80 184.0 4 24 55.00 50.00 0.41 2.50 186.5 4 25 61.00 44.00 0.00 4.07 190.6 4 26 63.00 38.00 0.00 4.23 194.8 4 27 67.00 44.00 0.04 6.84 201.6 4 28 60.00 38.00 0.00 3.02 204.6 4 29 47.00 32.00 0.00 0.00 204.6 4 30 68.00 24.00 0.00 5.12 209.8 5 1 80.00 33.00 0.00 11.02 220.8 5 2 85.00 44.00 0.00 15.49 236.3 5 3 78.00 57.00 0.12 17.50 253.8 5 4 75.00 63.00 0.17 19.00 272.8 1st egg laying by ow females 5 5 70.00 48.00 0.16 9.26 282.0 5 6 62.00 50.00 0.25 6.00 288.0 5 7 73.00 49.00 0.00 11.09 299.1 5 8 76.00 51.00 0.00 13.50 312.6 5 9 83.00 51.00 0.04 17.00 329.6 5 10 80.00 57.00 0.04 18.50 348.1 5 11 69.00 52.00 0.00 10.50 358.6 5 12 84.00 50.00 0.57 17.00 375.6 5 13 76.00 62.00 0.67 19.00 394.6 5 14 79.00 62.00 0.29 20.50 415.1 5 15 85.00 60.00 0.00 22.50 437.6 5 16 79.00 62.00 0.12 20.50 458.1 Pn 5 17 80.00 64.00 0.00 22.00 480.1 5 18 71.00 61.00 0.12 16.00 496.1 5 19 80.00 57.00 0.25 18.50 514.6 Peak (ca. 50%) egg laying by ow females; 1st adult emerge 1st gen 5 20 76.00 60.00 0.00 18.00 532.6 5 21 85.00 57.00 0.33 21.00 553.6 5 22 77.00 63.00 0.33 20.00 573.6 1st egg laying by 1st gen females 5 23 75.00 56.00 0.00 15.50 589.1 5 24 85.00 51.00 0.00 18.00 607.1 5 25 87.00 53.00 0.33 20.00 627.1 5 26 87.00 63.00 0.33 25.00 652.1 5 27 84.00 67.00 0.33 25.50 677.6 5 28 89.00 64.00 0.00 26.41 704.0 5 29 91.00 66.00 0.00 28.05 732.1 5 30 85.00 67.00 0.00 26.00 758.1 Peak adult emerge 1st gen 5 31 82.00 71.00 0.00 26.50 784.6 6 1 77.00 67.00 0.21 22.00 806.6 6 2 83.00 68.00 0.00 25.50 832.1 6 3 77.00 64.00 0.75 20.50 852.6 6 4 72.00 54.00 0.00 13.00 865.6 6 5 72.00 50.00 0.58 11.00 876.6 6 6 60.00 47.00 0.04 4.13 880.7 6 7 76.00 46.00 0.00 11.63 892.3 6 8 81.00 55.00 0.00 18.00 910.3 6 9 80.00 63.00 0.79 21.50 931.8 6 10 81.00 64.00 0.99 22.50 954.3 6 11 68.00 59.00 0.04 13.50 967.8 6 12 80.00 55.00 0.25 17.50 985.3 6 13 80.00 65.00 0.04 22.50 1007.8 Peak egg laying by 1st gen females; max 2+ gens. 6 14 81.00 54.00 0.00 17.50 1025.3 6 15 80.00 51.00 0.00 15.50 1040.8 6 16 84.00 53.00 0.00 18.50 1059.3 6 17 88.00 69.00 0.00 28.50 1087.8 6 18 92.00 69.00 0.08 29.78 1117.6 6 19 82.00 67.00 0.54 24.50 1142.1 6 20 80.00 65.00 0.52 22.50 1164.6 6 21 77.00 67.00 0.12 22.00 1186.6 6 22 74.00 63.00 0.12 18.50 1205.1 6 23 78.80 64.00 0.00 21.40 1226.5 Px 6 24 79.80 62.20 0.00 21.00 1247.5 Px Pn 6 25 77.00 59.60 0.00 18.30 1265.8 Px Pn Peak adult emerge 2nd gen; max 3+ gens. 6 26 76.40 58.60 0.00 17.50 1283.3 Px Pn 6 27 79.80 55.50 0.00 17.65 1301.0 PnHx 6 28 81.80 61.70 0.00 21.75 1322.7 Px Pn 6 29 87.80 60.30 0.00 24.05 1346.8 Px Pn 6 30 91.50 63.30 0.00 26.87 1373.6 Px Pn 7 1 92.30 66.50 0.00 28.64 1402.3 Px Pn 7 2 85.60 69.20 0.00 27.40 1429.7 Px Pn 7 3 84.80 68.10 0.00 26.45 1456.1 Px Pn 7 4 89.70 69.00 0.00 29.14 1485.3 Px Pn 7 5 80.70 69.10 0.00 24.90 1510.2 Px Pn Peak egg laying by 2nd gen females; max 4+ gens. 7 6 75.50 59.70 0.00 17.60 1527.8 Px Pn 7 7 72.30 55.30 0.00 13.80 1541.6 Px Pn 7 8 76.80 53.50 0.00 15.15 1556.7 Px Pn 7 9 80.40 56.30 0.00 18.35 1575.1 Px Pn 7 10 82.70 64.60 0.00 23.65 1598.7 Px Pn 7 11 75.90 61.70 0.00 18.80 1617.5 Px Pn 7 12 75.90 59.80 0.00 17.85 1635.4 Px Pn 7 13 82.60 61.60 0.00 22.10 1657.5 Px Pn 7 14 85.70 65.80 0.00 25.75 1683.2 Px Pn 7 15 85.10 68.20 0.00 26.65 1709.9 Px Pn 7 16 84.50 67.00 0.00 25.75 1735.6 Px Pn 7 17 80.80 59.50 0.00 20.15 1755.8 Px Pn Peak adult emerge 3rd gen; max 5 gens. 7 18 73.70 55.90 0.00 14.80 1770.6 Px Pn 7 19 77.80 55.80 0.00 16.80 1787.4 Px Pn 7 20 79.90 63.50 0.00 21.70 1809.1 Px Pn 7 21 72.40 61.90 0.00 17.15 1826.2 Px Pn 7 22 74.40 58.40 0.00 16.40 1842.6 Px Pn 7 23 80.60 68.60 0.00 24.60 1867.2 Px Pn 7 24 79.30 69.70 0.00 24.50 1891.7 Px Pn 7 25 79.10 63.70 0.00 21.40 1913.1 Px Pn 7 26 83.50 61.90 0.00 22.70 1935.8 Px Pn 7 27 78.30 62.90 0.00 20.60 1956.4 Px Pn 7 28 77.60 58.00 0.00 17.80 1974.2 Px Pn 7 29 80.70 56.10 0.00 18.40 1992.6 Px Pn Peak egg laying by 3rd gen females; max 6+ gens. 7 30 75.90 62.90 0.00 19.40 2012.0 Px Pn 7 31 78.20 61.60 0.00 19.90 2031.9 Px Pn 8 1 79.50 65.90 0.00 22.70 2054.6 Px Pn 8 2 76.00 65.90 0.00 20.95 2075.6 Px Pn 8 3 77.60 66.30 0.00 21.95 2097.5 Px Pn 8 4 85.70 63.80 0.00 24.75 2122.3 Px Pn 8 5 85.90 66.90 0.00 26.40 2148.7 Px Pn 8 6 87.80 67.30 0.00 27.55 2176.2 Px Pn 8 7 84.20 70.10 0.00 27.15 2203.4 Px Pn 8 8 78.30 67.10 0.00 22.70 2226.1 Px Pn 8 9 82.90 66.40 0.00 24.65 2250.7 Px Pn Peak adult emerge 4th gen; max 6+ gens. 8 10 75.60 64.40 0.00 20.00 2270.7 Px Pn 8 11 76.40 63.50 0.00 19.95 2290.7 Px Pn 8 12 81.50 61.10 0.00 21.30 2312.0 Px Pn 8 13 76.70 61.30 0.00 19.00 2331.0 Px Pn 8 14 76.90 60.80 0.00 18.85 2349.8 Px Pn 8 15 79.80 62.80 0.00 21.30 2371.1 Px Pn 8 16 79.50 66.90 0.00 23.20 2394.3 Px Pn 8 17 76.80 66.10 0.00 21.45 2415.8 Px Pn 8 18 78.70 64.00 0.00 21.35 2437.1 Px Pn 8 19 71.60 58.50 0.00 15.05 2452.2 Px Pn 8 20 75.90 62.50 0.00 19.20 2471.4 Px Pn 8 21 76.00 68.60 0.00 22.30 2493.7 Px Pn Peak egg laying by 4th gen females; max 7+ gens. 8 22 72.20 52.50 0.00 12.35 2506.0 Px Pn 8 23 71.50 51.30 0.00 11.40 2517.4 Px Pn 8 24 75.00 53.10 0.00 14.05 2531.5 Px Pn 8 25 74.20 61.00 0.00 17.60 2549.1 Px Pn 8 26 75.50 65.70 0.00 20.60 2569.7 Px Pn 8 27 84.00 70.10 0.00 27.05 2596.7 Px Pn 8 28 85.10 70.70 0.00 27.90 2624.6 Px Pn 8 29 84.30 69.40 0.00 26.85 2651.5 Px Pn 8 30 77.60 66.90 0.00 22.25 2673.7 Px Pn 8 31 80.30 64.00 0.00 22.15 2695.9 Px Pn 9 1 80.20 66.50 0.00 23.35 2719.2 Px Pn 9 2 82.20 66.70 0.00 24.45 2743.7 Px Pn Peak adult emerge 5th gen; max 8+ gens. 9 3 85.90 67.50 0.00 26.70 2770.4 Px Pn 9 4 85.30 68.00 0.00 26.65 2797.0 Px Pn 9 5 89.70 70.30 0.00 29.78 2826.8 Px Pn 9 6 86.10 69.20 0.00 27.65 2854.5 Px Pn 9 7 81.00 68.10 0.00 24.55 2879.0 Px Pn 9 8 68.10 51.50 0.00 9.80 2888.8 Px Pn 9 9 57.00 52.30 0.00 4.65 2893.5 Px Pn 9 10 65.00 56.10 0.00 10.55 2904.0 Px Pn 9 11 67.90 59.30 0.00 13.60 2917.6 Px Pn 9 12 74.40 61.80 0.00 18.10 2935.7 Px Pn 9 13 82.30 66.30 0.00 24.30 2960.0 Px Pn 9 14 79.80 67.30 0.00 23.55 2983.6 Px Pn Peak egg laying by 5th gen females; max 9+ gens. 9 15 80.30 65.80 0.00 23.05 3006.6 Px Pn Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 C9002 PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021