|
Output from uspest.org/wea invasive insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: spotted wing Drosophila [fruit]
Type: invasive insect
Model source/other links: OSU OIPMC model analysis vers. 3.0
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 50 degrees Fahrenheit
Upper threshold: 88 degrees Fahrenheit
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date
No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1
Ending date: 7 0
Model validation status: partly validated-has been compared to 2 years of field data in PNW
Region of known use: potential for use in US
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 261 DDs after Jan 1: 1st egg laying by ow females
2. 510 DDs after Jan 1: Peak (ca. 50%) egg laying by ow females; 1st adult emerge 1st gen
3. 565 DDs after Jan 1: 1st egg laying by 1st gen females
4. 755 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 1st gen
5. 995 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 1st gen females; max 2+ gens.
6. 1249 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 2nd gen; max 3+ gens.
7. 1489 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 2nd gen females; max 4+ gens.
8. 1743 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 3rd gen; max 5 gens.
9. 1983 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 3rd gen females; max 6+ gens.
10. 2237 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 4th gen; max 6+ gens.
11. 2477 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 4th gen females; max 7+ gens.
12. 2731 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 5th gen; max 8+ gens.
13. 2971 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 5th gen females; max 9+ gens.
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2017 E9842 APRSWXNET Laurance CGFG OR Lat45.5100 Long:-121.5772 Elev:1819
mn day max min precip DD50 CUMDD50 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
1 1 33.00 25.00 0.08 0.00 0.0 * START *
1 2 25.00 16.00 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 3 23.00 16.00 0.01 0.00 0.0
1 4 23.00 14.00 0.01 0.00 0.0
1 5 20.00 -1.00 0.01 0.00 0.0
1 6 20.00 -2.00 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 7 13.70 9.10 0.00 0.00 0.0 Vx Vn
1 8 17.00 13.80 0.01 0.00 0.0 Vn
1 9 36.00 16.00 0.02 0.00 0.0
1 10 28.00 22.00 0.01 0.00 0.0
1 11 22.00 15.00 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 12 22.00 10.00 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 13 17.00 8.00 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 14 13.00 3.00 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 15 18.00 2.00 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 16 17.00 3.00 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 17 19.00 8.00 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 18 32.00 19.00 0.11 0.00 0.0
1 19 42.00 31.00 0.57 0.00 0.0
1 20 33.00 30.00 0.11 0.00 0.0
1 21 34.00 30.00 0.15 0.00 0.0
1 22 38.00 31.00 0.37 0.00 0.0
1 23 40.00 30.00 0.17 0.00 0.0
1 24 42.00 20.00 0.03 0.00 0.0
1 25 39.00 30.00 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 26 43.00 31.00 0.01 0.00 0.0
1 27 31.00 28.00 0.01 0.00 0.0
1 28 31.00 26.00 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 29 38.00 26.00 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 30 39.00 29.00 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 31 30.00 27.00 0.02 0.00 0.0
2 1 28.00 23.00 0.00 0.00 0.0
2 2 28.00 21.00 0.26 0.00 0.0
2 3 22.00 17.00 0.00 0.00 0.0
2 4 45.00 19.00 1.53 0.00 0.0
2 5 39.00 31.00 0.19 0.00 0.0
2 6 36.00 26.00 0.06 0.00 0.0
2 7 32.00 25.00 0.09 0.00 0.0
2 8 27.00 25.00 0.00 0.00 0.0
2 9 49.00 27.00 1.63 0.00 0.0
2 10 44.00 33.00 0.25 0.00 0.0
2 11 42.00 26.00 0.00 0.00 0.0
2 12 41.00 24.00 0.00 0.00 0.0
2 13 44.00 21.00 0.00 0.00 0.0
2 14 38.00 19.00 0.19 0.00 0.0
2 15 32.00 30.00 0.73 0.00 0.0
2 16 42.00 31.00 0.15 0.00 0.0
2 17 48.00 33.00 0.07 0.00 0.0
2 18 38.00 33.00 0.14 0.00 0.0
2 19 40.00 32.00 0.35 0.00 0.0
2 20 46.00 32.00 0.51 0.00 0.0
2 21 40.00 32.00 0.50 0.00 0.0
2 22 40.00 27.00 0.00 0.00 0.0
2 23 39.00 26.00 0.00 0.00 0.0
2 24 35.00 22.00 0.00 0.00 0.0
2 25 42.00 20.00 0.04 0.00 0.0
2 26 36.00 24.00 0.03 0.00 0.0
2 27 36.00 22.00 0.17 0.00 0.0
2 28 40.00 30.00 0.02 0.00 0.0
3 1 45.00 31.00 0.01 0.00 0.0
3 2 44.00 28.00 0.01 0.00 0.0
3 3 47.00 33.00 0.09 0.00 0.0
3 4 39.00 31.00 0.10 0.00 0.0
3 5 40.00 25.00 0.06 0.00 0.0
3 6 36.00 29.00 0.37 0.00 0.0
3 7 44.00 31.00 1.12 0.00 0.0
3 8 45.00 35.00 0.33 0.00 0.0
3 9 49.00 35.00 0.64 0.00 0.0
3 10 53.00 34.00 0.07 0.51 0.5
3 11 51.00 32.00 0.13 0.10 0.6
3 12 55.00 35.00 0.00 1.09 1.7
3 13 49.00 37.00 0.22 0.00 1.7
3 14 55.00 40.00 0.04 1.27 3.0
3 15 50.00 39.00 0.07 0.00 3.0
3 16 49.00 32.00 0.00 0.00 3.0
3 17 40.00 30.00 0.31 0.00 3.0
3 18 49.00 35.00 0.03 0.00 3.0
3 19 48.00 27.00 0.00 0.00 3.0
3 20 46.00 31.00 0.28 0.00 3.0
3 21 41.00 35.00 0.06 0.00 3.0
3 22 49.00 34.00 0.21 0.00 3.0
3 23 50.00 30.00 0.75 0.00 3.0
3 24 52.00 38.00 0.07 0.33 3.3
3 25 48.00 36.00 0.06 0.00 3.3
3 26 41.00 35.00 0.61 0.00 3.3
3 27 49.00 35.00 0.01 0.00 3.3
3 28 53.00 38.00 0.56 0.58 3.9
3 29 56.00 39.00 0.03 1.57 5.5
3 30 48.00 38.00 0.02 0.00 5.5
3 31 59.00 30.00 0.00 2.20 7.7
4 1 56.00 39.00 0.00 1.57 9.2
4 2 49.00 37.00 0.00 0.00 9.2
4 3 54.00 28.00 0.00 0.68 9.9
4 4 53.40 31.20 0.00 0.57 10.5 Hx Hn
4 5 53.90 40.00 0.00 0.90 11.4 Vx
4 6 56.00 42.50 0.22 1.79 13.2 Vn
4 7 49.00 39.00 0.05 0.00 13.2
4 8 45.00 34.00 0.17 0.00 13.2
4 9 50.00 28.00 0.06 0.00 13.2
4 10 51.00 33.00 0.06 0.10 13.3
4 11 49.00 28.00 0.28 0.00 13.3
4 12 48.00 39.00 0.23 0.00 13.3
4 13 50.00 34.00 0.08 0.00 13.3
4 14 48.00 33.00 0.06 0.00 13.3
4 15 53.00 30.00 0.00 0.47 13.7
4 16 54.00 31.00 0.02 0.72 14.5
4 17 54.00 36.00 0.37 0.82 15.3
4 18 58.00 39.00 0.01 2.31 17.6
4 19 53.00 35.00 0.09 0.53 18.1
4 20 52.00 39.00 0.02 0.34 18.5
4 21 62.00 31.00 0.01 3.31 21.8
4 22 56.00 42.00 0.08 1.75 23.5
4 23 53.00 41.70 0.37 0.68 24.2 Vn
4 24 48.00 37.00 0.11 0.00 24.2
4 25 52.00 33.00 0.26 0.28 24.5
4 26 51.00 39.00 0.23 0.12 24.6
4 27 47.00 37.00 0.10 0.00 24.6
4 28 53.00 35.00 0.00 0.53 25.1
4 29 61.00 34.00 0.01 3.12 28.2
4 30 53.00 43.00 0.01 0.72 29.0
5 1 53.00 33.00 0.00 0.50 29.5
5 2 61.00 39.00 0.03 3.50 33.0
5 3 77.00 45.00 0.00 11.85 44.8
5 4 81.00 51.00 0.24 16.00 60.8
5 5 62.00 42.00 0.01 4.25 65.1
5 6 54.00 37.00 0.00 0.84 65.9
5 7 64.00 33.00 0.00 4.21 70.1
5 8 70.00 36.00 0.00 7.00 77.1
5 9 71.00 44.00 0.00 8.73 85.8
5 10 73.00 41.00 0.00 9.09 94.9
5 11 59.00 43.00 0.00 3.07 98.0
5 12 56.00 33.00 0.01 1.34 99.3
5 13 50.00 35.00 0.01 0.00 99.3
5 14 54.00 34.00 0.00 0.78 100.1
5 15 59.00 33.00 0.40 2.34 102.4
5 16 46.00 37.00 0.23 0.00 102.4
5 17 53.00 40.00 0.01 0.63 103.1
5 18 67.00 35.00 0.00 5.60 108.7
5 19 73.00 45.00 0.00 9.91 118.6
5 20 70.00 45.00 0.00 8.47 127.1
5 21 79.00 45.00 0.00 12.83 139.9
5 22 87.00 49.00 0.00 18.07 158.0
5 23 85.00 52.00 0.00 18.50 176.5
5 24 58.00 41.00 0.00 2.46 178.9
5 25 72.00 36.00 0.00 7.87 186.8
5 26 78.00 42.00 0.00 11.64 198.4
5 27 85.00 47.00 0.00 16.36 214.8
5 28 90.00 50.00 0.00 19.81 234.6
5 29 90.00 52.00 0.00 20.80 255.4
5 30 69.00 44.00 0.00 7.78 263.2 1st egg laying by ow females
5 31 73.00 44.00 0.00 9.68 272.9
6 1 67.00 52.00 0.00 9.50 282.4
6 2 73.00 42.00 0.00 9.27 291.6
6 3 68.00 48.00 0.00 8.27 299.9
6 4 60.00 41.00 0.00 3.28 303.2
6 5 76.00 38.00 0.00 9.96 313.1
6 6 82.00 47.00 0.00 14.88 328.0
6 7 81.00 53.00 0.42 17.00 345.0
6 8 62.00 44.00 0.04 4.53 349.5
6 9 59.00 37.00 0.14 2.56 352.1
6 10 56.00 37.00 0.03 1.48 353.6
6 11 67.00 41.00 0.00 6.34 359.9
6 12 60.00 46.00 0.00 3.94 363.9
6 13 56.00 47.00 0.00 2.26 366.1
6 14 64.00 40.00 0.00 4.87 371.0
6 15 60.00 48.00 0.13 4.35 375.3
6 16 60.00 54.00 0.01 7.00 382.3
6 17 70.00 43.00 0.00 8.06 390.4
6 18 80.00 54.00 0.00 17.00 407.4
6 19 88.00 53.00 0.00 20.50 427.9
6 20 74.00 55.00 0.00 14.50 442.4
6 21 74.00 43.00 0.00 9.95 452.3
6 22 79.00 42.00 0.00 12.12 464.5
6 23 86.00 46.00 0.00 16.54 481.0
6 24 90.00 49.00 0.00 19.38 500.4
6 25 92.00 52.00 0.00 21.46 521.8 Peak (ca. 50%) egg laying by ow females; 1st adult emerge 1st gen
6 26 80.00 59.00 0.00 19.50 541.3
6 27 76.00 48.00 0.00 12.23 553.6
6 28 69.00 44.00 0.00 7.78 561.3
6 29 81.00 44.00 0.00 13.54 574.9 1st egg laying by 1st gen females
6 30 87.00 50.00 0.00 18.50 593.4
Forecast using: 1910 E9842 PRISM_rev1_4km 2007-2016 AVERAGES Lat45.5097 Long-121.5769 DD50
spotted wing Drosophila model - OSU OIPMC model analysis vers. 3.0Location: 2017 E9842 Laurance CGFG OR 1910 E9842 PRISM_rev1_4km 2007-2016 AVERAGES | Date | DDs | Event |
| 5-30-17 | 263 | 1st egg laying by ow females |
| 6-25-17 | 522 | Peak (ca. 50%) egg laying by ow females; 1st adult emerge 1st gen |
| 6-29-17 | 575 | 1st egg laying by 1st gen females |
![degree-day graph of spotted wing Drosophila [fruit] OSU OIPMC model analysis vers. 3.0](/cgi-bin/ddplotj.pl?308280)
