|
Output from uspest.org/wea invasive insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: spotted wing Drosophila [fruit]
Type: invasive insect
Model source/other links: OSU OIPMC model analysis vers. 3.0
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 50 degrees Fahrenheit
Upper threshold: 88 degrees Fahrenheit
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date
No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1
Ending date: 7 0
Model validation status: partly validated-has been compared to 2 years of field data in PNW
Region of known use: potential for use in US
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 261 DDs after Jan 1: 1st egg laying by ow females
2. 510 DDs after Jan 1: Peak (ca. 50%) egg laying by ow females; 1st adult emerge 1st gen
3. 565 DDs after Jan 1: 1st egg laying by 1st gen females
4. 755 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 1st gen
5. 995 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 1st gen females; max 2+ gens.
6. 1249 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 2nd gen; max 3+ gens.
7. 1489 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 2nd gen females; max 4+ gens.
8. 1743 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 3rd gen; max 5 gens.
9. 1983 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 3rd gen females; max 6+ gens.
10. 2237 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 4th gen; max 6+ gens.
11. 2477 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 4th gen females; max 7+ gens.
12. 2731 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 5th gen; max 8+ gens.
13. 2971 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 5th gen females; max 9+ gens.
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2017 CRVO Agrimet CORVALLIS OR Lat44.6342 Long-123.1897 Elev:230
mn day max min precip DD50 CUMDD50 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
1 1 38.60 33.00 0.35 0.00 0.0 * START *
1 2 34.20 29.40 0.03 0.00 0.0
1 3 35.40 27.20 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 4 35.80 25.10 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 5 34.30 19.90 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 6 35.10 15.50 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 7 28.30 24.60 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 8 35.20 27.90 1.22 0.00 0.0
1 9 40.20 35.30 0.62 0.00 0.0
1 10 38.80 33.30 1.04 0.00 0.0
1 11 35.50 30.80 0.10 0.00 0.0
1 12 33.40 26.20 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 13 30.20 20.50 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 14 31.30 20.50 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 15 33.10 20.90 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 16 38.40 24.20 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 17 49.30 27.40 0.49 0.00 0.0
1 18 53.90 44.60 0.47 1.12 1.1
1 19 50.20 39.70 0.11 0.01 1.1
1 20 51.60 37.40 0.12 0.23 1.4
1 21 46.80 37.80 0.44 0.00 1.4
1 22 50.10 36.70 0.16 0.00 1.4
1 23 51.00 31.00 0.01 0.10 1.5
1 24 47.20 28.60 0.00 0.00 1.5
1 25 44.60 36.30 0.01 0.00 1.5
1 26 52.00 36.20 0.01 0.31 1.8
1 27 40.80 32.10 0.00 0.00 1.8
1 28 38.40 33.20 0.01 0.00 1.8
1 29 45.00 34.30 0.00 0.00 1.8
1 30 47.90 37.90 0.00 0.00 1.8
1 31 45.80 36.40 0.04 0.00 1.8
2 1 41.10 34.90 0.00 0.00 1.8
2 2 43.10 33.80 0.01 0.00 1.8
2 3 45.60 30.20 0.91 0.00 1.8
2 4 51.90 47.00 0.62 0.52 2.3
2 5 47.00 37.40 2.01 0.00 2.3
2 6 43.60 36.30 0.27 0.00 2.3
2 7 40.70 35.40 0.19 0.00 2.3
2 8 51.10 39.10 0.83 0.14 2.4
2 9 58.60 46.20 0.66 3.32 5.8
2 10 50.20 37.40 0.15 0.01 5.8
2 11 50.80 34.70 0.01 0.08 5.8
2 12 48.00 32.40 0.00 0.00 5.8
2 13 54.40 33.80 0.00 0.88 6.7
2 14 49.60 31.00 0.04 0.00 6.7
2 15 55.20 44.80 0.78 1.66 8.4
2 16 54.40 45.80 1.39 1.42 9.8
2 17 53.30 41.40 0.00 0.76 10.6
2 18 51.60 43.70 0.16 0.31 10.9
2 19 50.40 39.00 0.33 0.03 10.9
2 20 51.60 42.40 0.74 0.29 11.2
2 21 46.10 39.20 0.88 0.00 11.2
2 22 45.80 34.00 0.10 0.00 11.2
2 23 44.10 32.70 0.01 0.00 11.2
2 24 40.40 32.20 0.10 0.00 11.2
2 25 46.80 33.50 0.01 0.00 11.2
2 26 44.00 32.80 0.26 0.00 11.2
2 27 43.00 32.20 0.09 0.00 11.2
2 28 48.20 34.80 0.13 0.00 11.2
3 1 51.60 38.10 0.01 0.24 11.4
3 2 49.40 34.30 0.01 0.00 11.4
3 3 49.60 42.20 0.33 0.00 11.4
3 4 46.90 36.40 0.09 0.00 11.4
3 5 43.10 33.50 0.41 0.00 11.4
3 6 44.00 32.60 0.73 0.00 11.4
3 7 48.30 40.10 0.37 0.00 11.4
3 8 52.30 44.20 0.16 0.54 12.0
3 9 58.00 50.00 0.47 4.00 16.0
3 10 60.10 46.70 0.01 4.11 20.1
3 11 57.50 42.40 0.19 2.38 22.5
3 12 63.00 42.90 0.00 4.81 27.3
3 13 57.70 42.90 0.19 2.51 29.8 *Warning: using yesterdays min*
3 14 58.00 42.90 0.61 2.63 32.4 *Warning: using yesterdays min*
3 15 55.00 46.10 0.45 1.70 34.1
3 16 56.40 35.60 0.00 1.56 35.7
3 17 52.30 36.50 0.09 0.38 36.1
3 18 56.20 40.60 0.30 1.74 37.8
3 19 54.20 34.70 0.00 0.85 38.6
3 20 48.40 44.10 0.20 0.00 38.6
3 21 62.90 44.80 0.12 5.07 43.7
3 22 52.70 42.80 0.09 0.62 44.3
3 23 55.80 33.50 0.24 1.29 45.6
3 24 54.40 45.30 0.00 1.37 47.0
3 25 53.50 43.50 0.00 0.91 47.9
3 26 52.50 43.10 0.25 0.56 48.5
3 27 52.70 43.30 0.09 0.63 49.1
3 28 61.60 45.90 0.05 4.66 53.8
3 29 53.90 45.80 0.45 1.21 55.0
3 30 56.90 38.80 0.01 1.89 56.9
3 31 56.80 32.50 0.01 1.57 58.4
4 1 59.00 42.50 0.04 3.01 61.5
4 2 55.60 40.20 0.03 1.49 62.9
4 3 54.40 33.60 0.00 0.88 63.8
4 4 56.30 37.00 0.00 1.58 65.4 Hx Hn
4 5 59.10 44.80 0.00 3.34 68.7
4 6 63.70 46.30 0.17 5.74 74.5
4 7 54.10 42.60 0.38 1.08 75.6
4 8 52.60 39.00 0.03 0.49 76.1
4 9 55.70 37.40 0.13 1.40 77.5
4 10 56.80 41.20 0.05 2.00 79.5
4 11 50.40 40.70 0.28 0.03 79.5
4 12 58.90 44.70 0.13 3.23 82.7
4 13 52.80 43.10 0.04 0.66 83.4
4 14 53.70 38.10 0.03 0.78 84.2
4 15 58.80 33.30 0.00 2.28 86.4
4 16 61.20 42.90 0.28 4.01 90.5
4 17 58.70 45.10 0.44 3.20 93.7
4 18 63.30 47.10 0.06 5.73 99.4
4 19 58.30 43.40 0.20 2.81 102.2
4 20 59.80 42.50 0.19 3.35 105.6
4 21 66.20 38.10 0.00 5.60 111.2
4 22 61.50 47.30 0.04 4.91 116.1
4 23 56.40 46.40 0.09 2.35 118.4
4 24 57.50 45.80 0.27 2.76 121.2
4 25 53.60 43.50 0.22 0.95 122.1
4 26 55.50 44.70 0.28 1.77 123.9
4 27 56.10 40.30 0.02 1.68 125.6
4 28 58.60 33.80 0.00 2.23 127.8
4 29 65.00 35.90 0.05 4.86 132.7
4 30 59.80 43.90 0.04 3.52 136.2
5 1 56.70 37.80 0.00 1.76 138.0
5 2 66.30 52.30 0.00 9.30 147.3
5 3 79.10 51.00 0.00 15.05 162.3
5 4 82.90 53.60 0.06 18.25 180.6
5 5 57.20 44.10 0.09 2.42 183.0
5 6 59.40 38.10 0.00 2.79 185.8
5 7 63.50 36.40 0.00 4.29 190.0
5 8 70.90 40.00 0.00 7.95 198.0
5 9 75.60 40.80 0.00 10.27 208.3
5 10 73.10 43.30 0.00 9.58 217.8
5 11 57.90 46.80 0.28 3.10 220.9
5 12 53.90 43.20 0.24 1.04 222.0
5 13 54.00 41.20 0.29 0.98 223.0
5 14 60.50 44.50 0.17 3.92 226.9
5 15 60.40 40.60 0.07 3.41 230.3
5 16 57.40 47.60 0.33 3.02 233.3
5 17 61.20 46.40 0.01 4.57 237.9
5 18 70.40 38.20 0.00 7.46 245.3
5 19 75.10 47.50 0.00 11.62 257.0
5 20 69.00 47.90 0.00 8.73 265.7 1st egg laying by ow females
5 21 79.00 53.50 0.00 16.25 282.0
5 22 86.70 60.20 0.00 23.45 305.4
5 23 84.60 55.20 0.00 19.90 325.3
5 24 65.20 44.80 0.00 6.15 331.4
5 25 72.00 44.50 0.00 9.32 340.8
5 26 80.60 48.00 0.00 14.51 355.3
5 27 84.60 50.40 0.00 17.50 372.8
5 28 77.40 48.70 0.00 13.17 385.9
5 29 70.70 50.40 0.00 10.55 396.5
5 30 61.90 51.90 0.00 6.90 403.4
5 31 73.50 49.30 0.00 11.45 414.8
6 1 68.30 55.70 0.00 12.00 426.8
6 2 75.30 51.90 0.00 13.60 440.4
6 3 65.20 54.00 0.00 9.60 450.0
6 4 66.60 50.20 0.00 8.40 458.4
6 5 74.80 46.50 0.00 11.18 469.6
6 6 80.50 46.60 0.00 14.01 483.6
6 7 74.50 48.70 0.02 11.72 495.4
6 8 62.20 52.40 0.50 7.30 502.7
6 9 59.30 49.80 0.17 4.56 507.2
6 10 59.50 48.80 0.48 4.32 511.5 Peak (ca. 50%) egg laying by ow females; 1st adult emerge 1st gen
6 11 67.10 48.30 0.00 7.92 519.5
6 12 62.60 50.40 0.00 6.50 526.0
6 13 63.90 51.10 0.03 7.50 533.5
6 14 67.40 49.40 0.00 8.45 541.9
6 15 63.20 53.30 0.23 8.25 550.2
6 16 63.70 56.60 0.05 10.15 560.3
6 17 75.70 51.90 0.00 13.80 574.1 1st egg laying by 1st gen females
6 18 80.20 56.50 0.00 18.35 592.5
6 19 85.60 60.30 0.00 22.95 615.4
6 20 78.70 53.80 0.00 16.25 631.7
6 21 76.00 49.10 0.00 12.62 644.3
6 22 83.40 51.30 0.00 17.35 661.6
6 23 90.30 59.60 0.00 24.68 686.3
6 24 97.10 67.60 0.00 30.13 716.4
6 25 93.10 58.70 0.00 25.05 741.5
6 26 74.70 56.00 0.00 15.35 756.8 Peak adult emerge 1st gen
6 27 75.80 55.90 0.00 15.85 772.7
6 28 73.80 48.20 0.00 11.20 783.9
6 29 80.50 49.20 0.00 14.90 798.8
6 30 79.10 52.10 0.00 15.60 814.4
Forecast using: 1910 CRVO PRISM_rev1_4km 2007-2016 AVERAGES Lat44.6342 Long-123.1897 DD50
spotted wing Drosophila model - OSU OIPMC model analysis vers. 3.0Location: 2017 CRVO CORVALLIS OR 1910 CRVO PRISM_rev1_4km 2007-2016 AVERAGES | Date | DDs | Event |
| 5-20-17 | 266 | 1st egg laying by ow females |
| 6-10-17 | 512 | Peak (ca. 50%) egg laying by ow females; 1st adult emerge 1st gen |
| 6-17-17 | 574 | 1st egg laying by 1st gen females |
| 6-26-17 | 757 | Peak adult emerge 1st gen |
![degree-day graph of spotted wing Drosophila [fruit] OSU OIPMC model analysis vers. 3.0](/cgi-bin/ddplotj.pl?872947)
