Online Phenology Models and Degree-day Calculator
eggsimmatureadult
Pine Tree Lappet Moth [pine trees]
invasive insect model of OSU OIPMC model analysis


Output from uspest.org/wea invasive insect degree-day/phenology model program:
	Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================ Model species/general links: Pine Tree Lappet Moth [pine trees] Type: invasive insect Model source/other links: OSU OIPMC model analysis Calculation method: single sine Lower threshold: 45 degrees Fahrenheit Upper threshold: 86 degrees Fahrenheit Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1 Ending date: 7 31 Model validation status: draft model based on several studies mainly from Europe Region of known use: Dev. for use in US ==============================EVENTS TABLE================================ 1. 661 DDs after Jan 1: In Northern/colder regions: 1st adult flight from late instar OW larvae 2. 1034 DDs after Jan 1: 1st adult flight (most regions) 3. 1558 DDs after Jan 1: 1st egghatch from adult egglaying (most regions) 4. 1752 DDs after Jan 1: Approx. peak flight (most regions; end of flight colder regions) 5. 2114 DDs after Jan 1: Early-mid larval instars seek hibernacula (if after Oct. 1) 6. 2470 DDs after Jan 1: Approx. end of adult flight (except colder regions) 7. 2669 DDs after Jan 1: Mid-late larval instars seek hibernacula (if after Oct 1) 8. 4074 DDs after Jan 1: 2nd gen. adult emerg. (only in warmest regions) 9. 4598 DDs after Jan 1: 1st eggs hatch from 2nd gen. adult egglaying (if any) ==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================ Weather station: 2017 REST2 WTEXAS Lubbock (Reese) 12W TX Lat:33.6075 Long:-102.0489 Elev:3347 mn day max min precip DD45 CUMDD45 event -- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- ------- 1 1 65.30 30.10 0.00 7.02 7.0 * START * 1 2 60.80 38.10 0.00 6.12 13.1 1 3 47.60 30.60 0.00 0.44 13.6 1 4 49.90 27.30 0.00 0.99 14.6 1 5 42.60 14.50 0.00 0.00 14.6 1 6 21.10 8.90 0.00 0.00 14.6 1 7 36.90 4.40 0.00 0.00 14.6 1 8 65.30 21.90 0.00 6.22 20.8 1 9 79.20 32.40 0.00 13.66 34.4 1 10 66.10 44.70 0.00 10.41 44.9 1 11 78.90 37.00 0.00 14.46 59.3 1 12 66.50 37.20 0.00 8.61 67.9 1 13 39.40 30.10 0.00 0.00 67.9 1 14 34.50 31.60 0.00 0.00 67.9 1 15 39.80 31.60 0.00 0.00 67.9 1 16 55.40 32.60 0.00 3.14 71.1 1 17 53.80 30.50 0.00 2.39 73.5 1 18 57.00 40.30 0.00 4.74 78.2 1 19 63.50 38.70 0.00 7.48 85.7 1 20 61.30 39.10 0.00 6.53 92.2 1 21 59.60 38.30 0.00 5.60 97.8 1 22 60.20 38.00 0.00 5.83 103.6 1 23 72.50 30.70 0.00 10.29 113.9 1 24 63.50 36.20 0.00 7.05 121.0 1 25 47.20 31.00 0.00 0.35 121.3 1 26 49.10 20.00 0.00 0.66 122.0 1 27 44.00 21.20 0.00 0.00 122.0 1 28 52.10 19.60 0.00 1.44 123.4 1 29 62.90 24.50 0.00 5.48 128.9 1 30 69.80 27.80 0.00 8.69 137.6 1 31 73.90 36.00 0.00 11.86 149.5 2 1 61.50 36.90 0.00 6.25 155.7 2 2 45.90 22.70 0.00 0.08 155.8 2 3 44.80 23.90 0.00 0.00 155.8 2 4 56.20 31.00 0.00 3.34 159.1 2 5 77.60 31.80 0.00 12.80 171.9 2 6 74.90 36.10 0.00 12.35 184.3 2 7 74.70 42.00 0.00 13.74 198.0 2 8 76.90 46.10 0.00 16.50 214.5 2 9 68.40 32.50 0.00 8.70 223.2 2 10 87.00 41.00 0.00 19.44 242.7 2 11 89.20 44.50 0.00 21.51 264.2 2 12 68.40 43.20 0.00 11.01 275.2 2 13 43.30 33.30 0.00 0.00 275.2 2 14 38.60 35.80 0.00 0.00 275.2 2 15 56.70 30.00 0.00 3.46 278.6 2 16 64.60 29.60 0.00 6.66 285.3 2 17 73.80 34.00 0.00 11.43 296.7 2 18 69.90 35.00 0.00 9.79 306.5 2 19 68.90 49.40 0.00 14.15 320.7 2 20 68.70 40.40 0.00 10.35 331.0 2 21 80.00 31.80 0.00 13.92 344.9 2 22 83.90 44.10 0.00 19.06 364.0 2 23 78.80 47.50 0.00 18.15 382.1 2 24 59.90 29.80 0.00 4.72 386.9 2 25 52.40 21.60 0.00 1.58 388.4 2 26 64.80 32.90 0.00 7.15 395.6 2 27 74.00 28.90 0.00 10.70 406.3 2 28 75.80 50.60 0.00 18.20 424.5 3 1 56.80 27.80 0.00 3.35 427.8 3 2 63.10 23.70 0.00 5.49 433.3 3 3 62.10 30.10 0.00 5.65 439.0 3 4 68.40 34.60 0.00 9.03 448.0 3 5 78.90 48.10 0.00 18.50 466.5 3 6 79.70 49.60 0.00 19.65 486.2 3 7 62.20 29.90 0.00 5.68 491.8 3 8 78.50 32.80 0.00 13.40 505.2 3 9 85.10 52.10 0.00 23.60 528.8 3 10 63.40 38.60 0.00 7.42 536.3 3 11 63.40 39.20 0.00 7.54 543.8 3 12 62.80 34.90 0.00 6.54 550.3 3 13 63.60 37.80 0.00 7.36 557.7 3 14 79.20 39.30 0.00 15.18 572.9 3 15 69.70 34.70 0.00 9.65 582.5 3 16 87.20 47.80 0.00 22.41 604.9 3 17 85.20 42.40 0.00 19.07 624.0 3 18 81.00 48.20 0.00 19.60 643.6 3 19 89.10 47.00 0.00 22.69 666.3 In Northern/colder regions: 1st adult flight from late instar OW larvae 3 20 91.40 52.00 0.00 25.84 692.1 3 21 90.60 51.40 0.00 25.32 717.5 3 22 75.20 44.60 0.00 14.92 732.4 3 23 80.70 58.70 0.00 24.70 757.1 3 24 66.90 44.30 0.00 10.65 767.7 3 25 73.50 40.00 0.00 12.58 780.3 3 26 77.20 47.60 0.00 17.40 797.7 3 27 74.20 36.60 0.00 12.13 809.8 3 28 76.40 53.00 0.00 19.70 829.5 3 29 52.50 42.40 0.00 3.03 832.6 3 30 76.50 39.30 0.00 13.86 846.4 3 31 83.00 43.20 0.00 18.26 864.7 4 1 56.50 44.00 0.00 5.37 870.1 4 2 59.90 41.20 0.00 6.29 876.3 4 3 79.80 39.40 0.00 15.50 891.8 4 4 72.50 36.70 0.00 11.34 903.2 Hx Hn 4 5 63.10 37.30 0.00 7.04 910.2 Hn 4 6 73.80 37.30 0.00 12.08 922.3 4 7 79.70 45.10 0.00 17.40 939.7 4 8 90.00 51.00 0.00 24.95 964.7 4 9 85.80 56.10 0.00 25.95 990.6 4 10 70.70 51.50 0.00 16.10 1006.7 4 11 74.00 46.70 0.00 15.35 1022.1 4 12 67.30 54.90 0.00 16.10 1038.2 1st adult flight (most regions) 4 13 71.80 51.30 0.00 16.55 1054.7 4 14 75.40 57.60 0.00 21.50 1076.2 4 15 81.80 60.40 0.00 26.10 1102.3 4 16 82.00 58.60 0.00 25.30 1127.6 4 17 79.30 50.50 0.00 19.90 1147.5 4 18 83.70 55.10 0.00 24.40 1171.9 4 19 88.50 58.40 0.00 28.14 1200.1 4 20 74.00 54.10 0.00 19.05 1219.1 4 21 84.90 51.80 0.00 23.35 1242.5 4 22 64.10 45.50 0.00 9.80 1252.3 4 23 70.60 37.50 0.00 10.60 1262.9 4 24 91.40 44.00 0.00 21.98 1284.8 4 25 83.60 55.80 0.00 24.70 1309.5 4 26 67.30 46.90 0.00 12.10 1321.6 4 27 86.80 45.50 0.00 21.10 1342.7 4 28 83.00 50.50 0.00 21.75 1364.5 4 29 54.50 35.80 0.00 3.05 1367.5 4 30 63.70 34.90 0.00 6.94 1374.5 5 1 76.30 39.80 0.00 13.89 1388.4 5 2 90.00 48.20 0.00 23.57 1411.9 5 3 70.20 49.90 0.00 15.05 1427.0 5 4 73.70 41.80 0.00 13.18 1440.2 5 5 82.20 42.40 0.00 17.58 1457.8 5 6 89.50 53.70 0.00 26.13 1483.9 5 7 87.10 58.90 0.00 27.91 1511.8 5 8 77.20 59.60 0.00 23.40 1535.2 5 9 77.00 62.90 0.00 24.95 1560.1 1st egghatch from adult egglaying (most regions) 5 10 80.50 58.70 0.00 24.60 1584.7 5 11 74.10 48.60 0.00 16.35 1601.1 5 12 77.30 49.50 0.00 18.40 1619.5 5 13 85.30 49.60 0.00 22.45 1641.9 5 14 94.80 58.70 0.00 29.86 1671.8 5 15 91.30 64.60 0.00 31.93 1703.7 5 16 90.10 61.70 0.00 30.23 1734.0 5 17 82.60 54.40 0.00 23.50 1757.5 Approx. peak flight (most regions; end of flight colder regions) 5 18 87.60 58.40 0.00 27.84 1785.3 5 19 79.00 52.60 0.00 20.80 1806.1 5 20 75.20 43.70 0.00 14.56 1820.7 5 21 75.70 53.90 0.00 19.80 1840.5 5 22 76.90 50.30 0.00 18.60 1859.1 5 23 68.60 48.20 0.00 13.40 1872.5 5 24 87.00 44.10 0.00 20.54 1893.0 5 25 99.10 53.50 0.00 28.23 1921.2 5 26 94.40 58.20 0.00 29.54 1950.8 5 27 94.80 61.70 0.00 31.27 1982.0 5 28 82.20 54.20 0.00 23.20 2005.2 5 29 83.90 49.90 0.00 21.90 2027.1 5 30 87.10 56.10 0.00 26.51 2053.6 5 31 84.80 57.90 0.00 26.35 2080.0 6 1 82.60 56.00 0.00 24.30 2104.3 6 2 83.20 59.40 0.00 26.30 2130.6 Early-mid larval instars seek hibernacula (if after Oct. 1) 6 3 83.30 61.20 0.00 27.25 2157.8 6 4 84.90 59.80 0.00 27.35 2185.2 6 5 88.70 58.00 0.00 28.01 2213.2 6 6 89.50 61.30 0.00 29.87 2243.1 6 7 89.80 61.70 0.00 30.15 2273.2 6 8 90.70 62.40 0.00 30.72 2303.9 6 9 92.50 62.10 0.00 31.00 2334.9 6 10 100.10 67.60 0.00 34.71 2369.6 6 11 100.20 69.00 0.00 35.31 2405.0 6 12 98.80 69.30 0.00 35.29 2440.3 6 13 99.20 69.10 0.00 35.25 2475.5 Approx. end of adult flight (except colder regions) 6 14 100.00 64.40 0.00 33.30 2508.8 6 15 99.00 67.20 0.00 34.40 2543.2 6 16 101.80 66.50 0.00 34.43 2577.6 6 17 109.50 66.20 0.00 35.01 2612.6 6 18 80.90 69.30 0.00 30.10 2642.7 6 19 88.00 65.20 0.00 31.35 2674.1 Mid-late larval instars seek hibernacula (if after Oct 1) 6 20 96.00 70.50 0.00 35.47 2709.6 6 21 98.70 70.00 0.00 35.58 2745.1 6 22 97.90 67.40 0.00 34.35 2779.5 6 23 98.40 76.50 0.00 38.21 2817.7 6 24 80.90 61.50 0.00 26.20 2843.9 6 25 87.00 67.70 0.00 32.25 2876.2 6 26 81.60 58.40 0.00 25.00 2901.2 6 27 89.40 63.80 0.00 31.07 2932.2 6 28 95.40 69.20 0.00 34.81 2967.0 6 29 104.00 67.70 0.00 35.15 3002.2 6 30 98.30 71.40 0.00 36.13 3038.3 7 1 84.10 61.90 0.00 28.00 3066.3 7 2 88.00 62.70 0.00 30.11 3096.4 7 3 93.00 63.70 0.00 31.86 3128.3 7 4 94.30 64.80 0.00 32.62 3160.9 7 5 85.80 62.40 0.00 29.10 3190.0 7 6 88.00 65.90 0.00 31.69 3221.7 7 7 90.50 66.30 0.00 32.56 3254.3 7 8 90.70 68.20 0.00 33.52 3287.8 7 9 92.60 68.10 0.00 33.85 3321.6 7 10 93.90 65.80 0.00 33.02 3354.6 7 11 92.20 70.40 0.00 34.85 3389.5 7 12 92.10 68.40 0.00 33.90 3423.4 7 13 89.50 66.70 0.00 32.51 3455.9 7 14 88.70 63.80 0.00 30.87 3486.8 7 15 92.20 64.60 0.00 32.12 3518.9 7 16 91.00 64.20 0.00 31.67 3550.6 7 17 92.60 65.80 0.00 32.77 3583.3 7 18 92.40 68.70 0.00 34.10 3617.4 7 19 93.10 70.90 0.00 35.23 3652.7 7 20 94.50 67.30 0.00 33.81 3686.5 7 21 95.40 68.70 0.00 34.59 3721.1 7 22 96.20 68.90 0.00 34.79 3755.9 7 23 91.70 67.60 0.00 33.44 3789.3 7 24 92.80 71.40 0.00 35.42 3824.7 7 25 95.40 69.30 0.00 34.86 3859.6 7 26 96.60 73.50 0.00 36.84 3896.4 7 27 95.30 69.70 0.00 35.02 3931.4 7 28 95.60 68.20 0.00 34.39 3965.8 7 29 95.90 68.50 0.00 34.57 4000.4 7 30 89.70 74.30 0.00 36.21 4036.6 7 31 81.40 64.80 0.00 28.10 4064.7 Forecast using: 1910 REST2 PRISM_rev1_4km 2007-2016 AVERAGES Lat33.6075 Long-102.0489 DD50
Pine Tree Lappet Moth model - OSU OIPMC model analysis
Location: 2017 REST2 Lubbock (Reese) 12W
1910 REST2 PRISM_rev1_4km 2007-2016 AVERAGES
DateDDsEvent
 3-19-17 666In Northern/colder regions: 1st adult flight from late instar OW larvae
 4-12-17 10381st adult flight (most regions)
 5-9-17 15601st egghatch from adult egglaying (most regions)
 5-17-17 1757Approx. peak flight (most regions; end of flight colder regions)
 6-2-17 2131Early-mid larval instars seek hibernacula (if after Oct. 1)
 6-13-17 2475Approx. end of adult flight (except colder regions)
 6-19-17 2674Mid-late larval instars seek hibernacula (if after Oct 1)
degree-day graph of Pine Tree Lappet Moth [pine trees] OSU OIPMC model analysis