Online Phenology Models and Degree-day Calculator
immaturedamagepupaadult
orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
insect model of Knight (1988)


Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
	Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================ Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Type: insect Model source/other links: Knight (1988) Calculation method: single sine Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default) Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1 Ending date: 9 15 Model validation status: partly validated Region of known use: Pacific Northwest ==============================EVENTS TABLE================================ 1. 850 DDs after biofix: peak pheromone trap catch 2. 950 DDs after biofix: peak female adult emergence 3. 1000 DDs after biofix: peak egg laying 4. 1270 DDs after biofix: peak egg hatch 5. 2070 DDs after biofix: peak in density large larvae ==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================ Weather station: 2018 MWQGV PDTWFO Grandview WA Lat46.2528 Long-119.8939 Elev:833 mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event -- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- ------- 1 1 31.00 25.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 * START * 1 2 31.00 28.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 3 33.00 24.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 4 32.00 26.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 5 34.00 29.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 6 36.00 28.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 7 34.00 30.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 8 35.00 32.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 9 38.00 34.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 10 46.00 29.70 0.00 1.22 1.2 Pn 1 11 43.00 34.00 0.00 0.41 1.6 1 12 43.00 33.00 0.00 0.39 2.0 1 13 50.00 34.00 0.00 3.07 5.1 1 14 46.00 28.00 0.00 1.15 6.2 1 15 42.00 34.00 0.00 0.15 6.4 1 16 52.00 34.00 0.00 3.94 10.3 1 17 42.00 33.00 0.00 0.14 10.5 1 18 48.00 39.00 0.00 2.91 13.4 1 19 49.00 30.00 0.00 2.31 15.7 1 20 52.00 34.00 0.00 3.94 19.6 1 21 48.00 35.00 0.00 2.33 21.9 1 22 50.00 29.00 0.00 2.63 24.6 1 23 40.00 30.00 0.00 0.00 24.6 1 24 52.00 40.00 0.00 5.12 29.7 1 25 48.00 29.00 0.00 1.88 31.6 1 26 48.00 35.00 0.00 2.33 33.9 1 27 55.00 38.00 0.00 6.04 39.9 1 28 45.00 40.00 0.00 1.69 41.6 1 29 52.00 39.00 0.00 4.84 46.5 1 30 52.00 31.00 0.00 3.60 50.1 1 31 46.00 28.00 0.00 1.15 51.2 2 1 45.00 30.00 0.00 0.90 52.1 2 2 47.00 38.00 0.00 2.26 54.4 2 3 63.00 42.00 0.00 11.50 65.9 2 4 65.00 46.00 0.00 14.50 80.4 2 5 57.00 38.00 0.00 7.01 87.4 2 6 55.00 30.00 0.00 4.76 92.2 2 7 53.00 40.00 0.00 5.62 97.8 2 8 68.00 40.00 0.00 13.08 110.9 2 9 50.00 31.00 0.00 2.78 113.6 2 10 46.00 28.00 0.00 1.15 114.8 2 11 41.00 26.00 0.00 0.00 114.8 2 12 38.00 26.00 0.00 0.00 114.8 2 13 43.00 21.00 0.00 0.26 115.0 2 14 49.00 30.00 0.00 2.31 117.4 2 15 48.00 25.00 0.00 1.69 119.1 2 16 57.00 32.00 0.00 5.89 124.9 2 17 58.00 34.00 0.00 6.66 131.6 2 18 43.00 27.00 0.00 0.30 131.9 2 19 32.00 20.00 0.00 0.00 131.9 2 20 33.00 14.00 0.00 0.00 131.9 2 21 30.00 13.00 0.00 0.00 131.9 2 22 33.00 21.00 0.00 0.00 131.9 2 23 35.00 12.00 0.00 0.00 131.9 2 24 49.00 33.00 0.00 2.55 134.4 2 25 50.00 31.00 0.00 2.78 137.2 2 26 47.00 21.00 0.00 1.25 138.5 2 27 50.00 23.00 0.00 2.29 140.8 2 28 47.00 32.00 0.00 1.69 142.5 3 1 46.00 35.00 0.00 1.51 144.0 3 2 49.00 33.00 0.00 2.55 146.5 3 3 45.00 24.00 0.00 0.76 147.3 3 4 51.00 22.00 0.00 2.59 149.9 3 5 52.00 26.00 0.00 3.19 153.0 3 6 50.00 21.00 0.00 2.20 155.2 3 7 49.00 24.00 0.00 1.99 157.2 3 8 57.00 31.00 0.00 5.75 163.0 3 9 56.00 30.40 0.00 5.23 168.2 Pn 3 10 55.00 25.00 0.00 4.29 172.5 3 11 59.00 33.00 0.00 6.95 179.4 3 12 64.00 31.00 0.00 8.91 188.4 3 13 60.00 37.00 0.00 8.22 196.6 3 14 59.00 38.00 0.00 7.99 204.6 3 15 55.00 30.00 0.00 4.76 209.3 3 16 52.00 34.00 0.00 3.94 213.3 3 17 56.00 36.00 0.00 6.09 219.4 3 18 58.00 29.00 0.00 5.93 225.3 3 19 58.00 28.00 0.00 5.82 231.1 3 20 61.00 28.00 0.00 7.12 238.2 3 21 54.00 36.00 0.00 5.15 243.4 3 22 51.00 33.00 0.00 3.38 246.8 3 23 50.00 33.00 0.00 2.96 249.7 3 24 50.00 34.00 0.00 3.07 252.8 3 25 54.00 34.00 0.00 4.83 257.6 3 26 51.00 29.00 0.00 3.02 260.6 3 27 66.00 41.00 0.00 12.50 273.1 3 28 60.00 40.00 0.00 9.10 282.2 3 29 64.00 37.00 0.00 10.16 292.4 3 30 66.00 39.00 0.00 11.73 304.1 3 31 58.00 35.00 0.00 6.84 311.0 4 1 58.00 38.00 0.00 7.50 318.5 4 2 55.00 32.00 0.00 5.00 323.5 4 3 52.00 30.00 0.00 3.50 327.0 4 4 53.00 44.00 0.00 7.50 334.5 4 5 54.00 45.00 0.00 8.50 343.0 4 6 63.00 43.00 0.00 12.00 355.0 4 7 63.00 46.00 0.00 13.50 368.5 4 8 60.00 45.00 0.00 11.50 380.0 4 9 56.00 36.00 0.00 6.09 386.0 4 10 66.00 42.10 0.00 13.05 399.1 Pn 4 11 56.00 42.00 0.00 8.00 407.1 4 12 57.00 41.00 0.00 8.00 415.1 4 13 58.00 38.00 0.00 7.50 422.6 4 14 63.00 50.00 0.00 15.50 438.1 4 15 58.00 47.00 0.00 11.50 449.6 4 16 55.00 41.00 0.00 7.00 456.6 4 17 58.00 40.00 0.00 8.10 464.7 4 18 59.00 36.00 0.00 7.51 472.2 4 19 66.00 37.00 0.00 11.14 483.3 4 20 70.00 38.00 0.00 13.39 496.7 4 21 63.00 45.00 0.00 13.00 509.7 4 22 62.00 33.00 0.00 8.34 518.1 4 23 65.00 36.00 0.00 10.40 528.5 4 24 72.00 36.00 0.00 13.80 542.3 4 25 75.00 42.00 0.00 17.50 559.8 4 26 80.00 42.00 0.00 20.00 579.8 4 27 82.00 46.00 0.00 23.00 602.8 4 28 66.00 44.00 0.00 14.00 616.8 4 29 67.00 39.00 0.00 12.23 629.0 4 30 64.00 38.00 0.00 10.44 639.4 5 1 68.00 44.00 0.00 15.00 654.4 5 2 75.00 41.00 0.00 17.00 671.4 5 3 81.00 46.00 0.00 22.50 693.9 5 4 80.00 53.00 0.00 25.50 719.4 5 5 75.00 58.00 0.00 25.50 744.9 5 6 72.00 56.00 0.00 23.00 767.9 5 7 79.00 56.00 0.00 26.50 794.4 5 8 82.00 52.00 0.00 26.00 820.4 5 9 72.00 57.00 0.00 23.50 843.9 5 10 66.00 50.00 0.00 17.00 860.9 peak pheromone trap catch 5 11 70.00 48.00 0.00 18.00 878.9 5 12 80.00 47.00 0.00 22.50 901.4 5 13 85.00 49.00 0.00 26.00 927.4 5 14 86.00 53.00 0.00 28.50 955.9 peak female adult emergence 5 15 90.00 53.00 0.00 30.50 986.4 5 16 80.00 60.00 0.00 29.00 1015.4 peak egg laying 5 17 82.00 54.00 0.00 27.00 1042.4 5 18 72.00 54.00 0.00 22.00 1064.4 5 19 75.00 52.00 0.00 22.50 1086.9 5 20 74.00 54.00 0.00 23.00 1109.9 5 21 81.00 52.00 0.00 25.50 1135.4 5 22 87.00 54.00 0.00 29.50 1164.9 5 23 87.00 59.00 0.00 32.00 1196.9 5 24 87.00 60.00 0.00 32.50 1229.4 5 25 77.00 56.00 0.00 25.50 1254.9 5 26 78.00 54.00 0.00 25.00 1279.9 peak egg hatch 5 27 83.00 45.00 0.00 23.00 1302.9 5 28 86.00 53.00 0.00 28.50 1331.4 5 29 74.00 47.00 0.00 19.50 1350.9 5 30 69.00 41.00 0.00 14.00 1364.9 5 31 69.00 48.00 0.00 17.50 1382.4 6 1 74.00 42.00 0.00 17.00 1399.4 6 2 82.00 46.00 0.00 23.00 1422.4 6 3 86.00 51.00 0.00 27.50 1449.9 6 4 73.00 57.00 0.00 24.00 1473.9 6 5 77.00 45.00 0.00 20.00 1493.9 6 6 78.00 48.00 0.00 22.00 1515.9 6 7 84.00 51.00 0.00 26.50 1542.4 6 8 80.00 51.00 0.00 24.50 1566.9 6 9 66.00 51.00 0.00 17.50 1584.4 6 10 66.00 42.00 0.00 13.00 1597.4 6 11 73.00 44.00 0.00 17.50 1614.9 6 12 77.00 44.00 0.00 19.50 1634.4 6 13 76.00 56.00 0.00 25.00 1659.4 6 14 75.00 46.00 0.00 19.50 1678.9 6 15 79.00 48.00 0.00 22.50 1701.4 6 16 73.00 57.00 0.00 24.00 1725.4 6 17 82.00 54.00 0.00 27.00 1752.4 6 18 75.00 60.00 0.00 26.50 1778.9 6 19 83.00 59.00 0.00 30.00 1808.9 6 20 88.00 58.00 0.00 32.00 1840.9 6 21 90.00 64.00 0.00 36.00 1876.9 6 22 85.00 60.00 0.00 31.50 1908.4 6 23 82.00 58.00 0.00 29.00 1937.4 6 24 89.00 56.00 0.00 31.50 1968.9 6 25 77.00 59.00 0.00 27.00 1995.9 6 26 80.40 46.00 0.00 22.20 2018.1 Px 6 27 85.60 44.20 0.00 23.90 2042.0 Px Pn 6 28 79.10 57.70 0.00 27.40 2069.4 Px Pn 6 29 81.00 46.20 0.00 22.60 2092.0 Pn peak in density large larvae 6 30 83.00 53.00 0.00 27.00 2119.0 7 1 81.00 52.00 0.00 25.50 2144.5 7 2 72.00 50.00 0.00 20.00 2164.5 7 3 77.00 48.00 0.00 21.50 2186.0 7 4 87.00 50.00 0.00 27.50 2213.5 Px 7 5 94.00 55.10 0.00 33.55 2247.1 Pn 7 6 88.00 60.00 0.00 33.00 2280.1 7 7 84.00 54.00 0.00 28.00 2308.1 7 8 87.00 50.00 0.00 27.50 2335.6 7 9 93.00 58.00 0.00 34.50 2370.1 7 10 83.00 58.00 0.00 29.50 2399.6 7 11 86.00 56.00 0.00 30.00 2429.6 7 12 92.00 59.00 0.00 34.50 2464.1 7 13 100.00 62.00 0.00 40.00 2504.1 7 14 90.00 62.00 0.00 35.00 2539.1
DD accumulation on 7-14-18: 2539QA 95% ok - OK - 5% of data estimated    
  
This year is about  versus  QA
 6 days ahead 2017 ok
 7 days behind 2016 ok
 1 day ahead 30-yr normal ok
Forecast using:  Fox - IPPC forecast for MWQGV data
  7 15 100.20 64.60  0.00  41.40   2580.5  0.00_32.40%_precip.    
  7 16 101.70 63.90  0.00  41.80   2622.3  0.00_32.80%_precip.    
  7 17 102.20 63.70  0.00  41.95   2664.2  0.00_32.95%_precip.    
  7 18  95.00 59.60  0.00  36.30   2700.5  0.00_27.30%_precip.    
  7 19  91.30 52.40  0.00  30.85   2731.4  0.00_21.85%_precip.    
Forecast using: 10 yr Hist Avg MWQGV 2006-2015
  7 20  90.60 58.80  0.00  33.70   2765.1  *hist_fcst*    
  7 21  90.50 58.00  0.00  33.25   2798.3  *hist_fcst*    
  7 22  91.40 57.90  0.00  33.65   2832.0  *hist_fcst*    
  7 23  90.80 58.90  0.00  33.85   2865.8  *hist_fcst*    
  7 24  90.30 57.00  0.01  32.65   2898.5  *hist_fcst*    
  7 25  91.60 57.50  0.00  33.55   2932.0  *hist_fcst*    
  7 26  91.30 57.20  0.01  33.25   2965.3  *hist_fcst*    
  7 27  92.60 59.00  0.00  34.80   3000.1  *hist_fcst*    
  7 28  91.70 58.20  0.00  33.95   3034.0  *hist_fcst*    
  7 29  91.50 57.40  0.00  33.45   3067.5  *hist_fcst*    
  7 30  91.60 58.10  0.00  33.85   3101.3  *hist_fcst*    
  7 31  91.60 57.90  0.00  33.75   3135.1  *hist_fcst*    
  8  1  91.80 56.90  0.00  33.35   3168.4  *hist_fcst*    
  8  2  92.10 58.00  0.00  34.05   3202.5  *hist_fcst*    
  8  3  91.00 56.70  0.00  32.85   3235.3  *hist_fcst*    
  8  4  90.10 57.20  0.00  32.65   3268.0  *hist_fcst*    
  8  5  92.60 58.00  0.00  34.30   3302.3  *hist_fcst*    
  8  6  92.90 56.90  0.00  33.90   3336.2  *hist_fcst*    
  8  7  91.10 57.70  0.00  33.40   3369.6  *hist_fcst*    
  8  8  91.30 57.80  0.00  33.55   3403.1  *hist_fcst*    
  8  9  89.10 56.80  0.02  31.95   3435.1  *hist_fcst*    
  8 10  87.40 55.10  0.00  30.25   3465.3  *hist_fcst*    
  8 11  87.40 55.30  0.00  30.35   3495.7  *hist_fcst*    
  8 12  89.00 56.80  0.00  31.90   3527.6  *hist_fcst*    
  8 13  91.00 57.60  0.00  33.30   3560.9  *hist_fcst*    
  8 14  90.40 56.50  0.02  32.45   3593.3  *hist_fcst*    
  8 15  89.30 56.70  0.01  32.00   3625.3  *hist_fcst*    
  8 16  89.40 56.20  0.00  31.80   3657.1  *hist_fcst*    
  8 17  89.70 55.30  0.00  31.50   3688.6  *hist_fcst*    
  8 18  91.60 56.50  0.00  33.05   3721.7  *hist_fcst*    
  8 19  91.30 57.10  0.02  33.20   3754.9  *hist_fcst*    
  8 20  90.30 56.90  0.03  32.60   3787.5  *hist_fcst*    
  8 21  88.90 55.30  0.00  31.10   3818.6  *hist_fcst*    
  8 22  87.30 53.20  0.00  29.25   3847.8  *hist_fcst*    
  8 23  84.50 52.80  0.00  27.65   3875.5  *hist_fcst*    
  8 24  84.70 52.30  0.00  27.50   3903.0  *hist_fcst*    
  8 25  86.50 54.30  0.01  29.40   3932.4  *hist_fcst*    
  8 26  86.70 53.20  0.02  28.95   3961.3  *hist_fcst*    
  8 27  86.80 53.20  0.00  29.00   3990.3  *hist_fcst*    
  8 28  87.70 54.70  0.00  30.20   4020.5  *hist_fcst*    
  8 29  87.30 54.60  0.00  29.95   4050.5  *hist_fcst*    
  8 30  84.80 53.40  0.00  28.10   4078.6  *hist_fcst*    
  8 31  81.40 50.90  0.00  25.15   4103.7  *hist_fcst*    
  9  1  80.70 49.30  0.01  24.00   4127.7  *hist_fcst*    
  9  2  82.90 50.10  0.00  25.50   4153.2  *hist_fcst*    
  9  3  84.00 50.50  0.00  26.25   4179.5  *hist_fcst*    
  9  4  82.80 50.80  0.00  25.80   4205.3  *hist_fcst*    
  9  5  82.60 51.50  0.00  26.05   4231.3  *hist_fcst*    
  9  6  83.30 51.80  0.04  26.55   4257.9  *hist_fcst*    
  9  7  81.10 51.30  0.01  25.20   4283.1  *hist_fcst*    
  9  8  81.60 50.70  0.01  25.15   4308.2  *hist_fcst*    
  9  9  82.00 51.20  0.01  25.60   4333.8  *hist_fcst*    
  9 10  82.50 50.10  0.00  25.30   4359.1  *hist_fcst*    
  9 11  81.50 49.00  0.00  24.25   4383.4  *hist_fcst*    
  9 12  83.60 48.80  0.00  25.20   4408.6  *hist_fcst*    
  9 13  87.20 50.30  0.00  27.75   4436.3  *hist_fcst*    
  9 14  85.20 50.40  0.00  26.80   4463.1  *hist_fcst*    
  9 15  81.50 48.90  0.00  24.20   4487.3  *hist_fcst*    
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight
Location: 2018 MWQGV Grandview WA
DD accumulation on 7-14-18: 2539QA 95% ok - OK - 5% of data estimated  - show details 
  
This year is about  versus  QA
 6 days ahead 2017 ok
 7 days behind 2016 ok
 1 day ahead 30-yr normal ok
DateDDsEvent
 5-10-18 861peak pheromone trap catch
 5-14-18 956peak female adult emergence
 5-16-18 1015peak egg laying
 5-26-18 1280peak egg hatch
 6-29-18 2092peak in density large larvae
degree-day graph of orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Knight (1988)