Online Phenology Models and Degree-day Calculator
immaturedamagepupaadult
orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
insect model of Knight (1988)


Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
	Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================ Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Type: insect Model source/other links: Knight (1988) Calculation method: single sine Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default) Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1 Ending date: 9 15 Model validation status: partly validated Region of known use: Pacific Northwest ==============================EVENTS TABLE================================ 1. 850 DDs after biofix: peak pheromone trap catch 2. 950 DDs after biofix: peak female adult emergence 3. 1000 DDs after biofix: peak egg laying 4. 1270 DDs after biofix: peak egg hatch 5. 2070 DDs after biofix: peak in density large larvae ==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================ Weather station: 2018 MWQGV PDTWFO Grandview WA Lat46.2528 Long-119.8939 Elev:833 mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event -- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- ------- 1 1 31.00 25.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 * START * 1 2 31.00 28.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 3 33.00 24.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 4 32.00 26.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 5 34.00 29.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 6 36.00 28.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 7 34.00 30.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 8 35.00 32.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 9 38.00 34.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 10 46.00 29.70 0.00 1.22 1.2 Pn 1 11 43.00 34.00 0.00 0.41 1.6 1 12 43.00 33.00 0.00 0.39 2.0 1 13 50.00 34.00 0.00 3.07 5.1 1 14 46.00 28.00 0.00 1.15 6.2 1 15 42.00 34.00 0.00 0.15 6.4 1 16 52.00 34.00 0.00 3.94 10.3 1 17 42.00 33.00 0.00 0.14 10.5 1 18 48.00 39.00 0.00 2.91 13.4 1 19 49.00 30.00 0.00 2.31 15.7 1 20 52.00 34.00 0.00 3.94 19.6 1 21 48.00 35.00 0.00 2.33 21.9 1 22 50.00 29.00 0.00 2.63 24.6 1 23 40.00 30.00 0.00 0.00 24.6 1 24 52.00 40.00 0.00 5.12 29.7 1 25 48.00 29.00 0.00 1.88 31.6 1 26 48.00 35.00 0.00 2.33 33.9 1 27 55.00 38.00 0.00 6.04 39.9 1 28 45.00 40.00 0.00 1.69 41.6 1 29 52.00 39.00 0.00 4.84 46.5 1 30 52.00 31.00 0.00 3.60 50.1 1 31 46.00 28.00 0.00 1.15 51.2 2 1 45.00 30.00 0.00 0.90 52.1 2 2 47.00 38.00 0.00 2.26 54.4 2 3 63.00 42.00 0.00 11.50 65.9 2 4 65.00 46.00 0.00 14.50 80.4 2 5 57.00 38.00 0.00 7.01 87.4 2 6 55.00 30.00 0.00 4.76 92.2 2 7 53.00 40.00 0.00 5.62 97.8 2 8 68.00 40.00 0.00 13.08 110.9 2 9 50.00 31.00 0.00 2.78 113.6 2 10 46.00 28.00 0.00 1.15 114.8 2 11 41.00 26.00 0.00 0.00 114.8 2 12 38.00 26.00 0.00 0.00 114.8 2 13 43.00 21.00 0.00 0.26 115.0 2 14 49.00 30.00 0.00 2.31 117.4 2 15 48.00 25.00 0.00 1.69 119.1 2 16 57.00 32.00 0.00 5.89 124.9 2 17 58.00 34.00 0.00 6.66 131.6 2 18 43.00 27.00 0.00 0.30 131.9 2 19 32.00 20.00 0.00 0.00 131.9 2 20 33.00 14.00 0.00 0.00 131.9 2 21 30.00 13.00 0.00 0.00 131.9 2 22 33.00 21.00 0.00 0.00 131.9 2 23 35.00 12.00 0.00 0.00 131.9 2 24 49.00 33.00 0.00 2.55 134.4 2 25 50.00 31.00 0.00 2.78 137.2 2 26 47.00 21.00 0.00 1.25 138.5 2 27 50.00 23.00 0.00 2.29 140.8 2 28 47.00 32.00 0.00 1.69 142.5 3 1 46.00 35.00 0.00 1.51 144.0 3 2 49.00 33.00 0.00 2.55 146.5 3 3 45.00 24.00 0.00 0.76 147.3 3 4 51.00 22.00 0.00 2.59 149.9 3 5 52.00 26.00 0.00 3.19 153.0 3 6 50.00 21.00 0.00 2.20 155.2 3 7 49.00 24.00 0.00 1.99 157.2 3 8 57.00 31.00 0.00 5.75 163.0 3 9 56.00 30.40 0.00 5.23 168.2 Pn 3 10 55.00 25.00 0.00 4.29 172.5 3 11 59.00 33.00 0.00 6.95 179.4 3 12 64.00 31.00 0.00 8.91 188.4 3 13 60.00 37.00 0.00 8.22 196.6 3 14 59.00 38.00 0.00 7.99 204.6 3 15 55.00 30.00 0.00 4.76 209.3 3 16 52.00 34.00 0.00 3.94 213.3 3 17 56.00 36.00 0.00 6.09 219.4 3 18 58.00 29.00 0.00 5.93 225.3 3 19 58.00 28.00 0.00 5.82 231.1 3 20 61.00 28.00 0.00 7.12 238.2 3 21 54.00 36.00 0.00 5.15 243.4 3 22 51.00 33.00 0.00 3.38 246.8 3 23 50.00 33.00 0.00 2.96 249.7 3 24 50.00 34.00 0.00 3.07 252.8 3 25 54.00 34.00 0.00 4.83 257.6 3 26 51.00 29.00 0.00 3.02 260.6 3 27 66.00 41.00 0.00 12.50 273.1 3 28 60.00 40.00 0.00 9.10 282.2 3 29 64.00 37.00 0.00 10.16 292.4 3 30 66.00 39.00 0.00 11.73 304.1 3 31 58.00 35.00 0.00 6.84 311.0 4 1 58.00 38.00 0.00 7.50 318.5 4 2 55.00 32.00 0.00 5.00 323.5 4 3 52.00 30.00 0.00 3.50 327.0 4 4 53.00 44.00 0.00 7.50 334.5 4 5 54.00 45.00 0.00 8.50 343.0 4 6 63.00 43.00 0.00 12.00 355.0 4 7 63.00 46.00 0.00 13.50 368.5 4 8 60.00 45.00 0.00 11.50 380.0 4 9 56.00 36.00 0.00 6.09 386.0 4 10 66.00 42.10 0.00 13.05 399.1 Pn 4 11 56.00 42.00 0.00 8.00 407.1 4 12 57.00 41.00 0.00 8.00 415.1 4 13 58.00 38.00 0.00 7.50 422.6 4 14 63.00 50.00 0.00 15.50 438.1 4 15 58.00 47.00 0.00 11.50 449.6 4 16 55.00 41.00 0.00 7.00 456.6 4 17 58.00 40.00 0.00 8.10 464.7 4 18 59.00 36.00 0.00 7.51 472.2 4 19 66.00 37.00 0.00 11.14 483.3 4 20 70.00 38.00 0.00 13.39 496.7 4 21 63.00 45.00 0.00 13.00 509.7 4 22 62.00 33.00 0.00 8.34 518.1 4 23 65.00 36.00 0.00 10.40 528.5 4 24 72.00 36.00 0.00 13.80 542.3 4 25 75.00 42.00 0.00 17.50 559.8 4 26 80.00 42.00 0.00 20.00 579.8 4 27 82.00 46.00 0.00 23.00 602.8 4 28 66.00 44.00 0.00 14.00 616.8 4 29 67.00 39.00 0.00 12.23 629.0 4 30 64.00 38.00 0.00 10.44 639.4 5 1 68.00 44.00 0.00 15.00 654.4 5 2 75.00 41.00 0.00 17.00 671.4 5 3 81.00 46.00 0.00 22.50 693.9 5 4 80.00 53.00 0.00 25.50 719.4 5 5 75.00 58.00 0.00 25.50 744.9 5 6 72.00 56.00 0.00 23.00 767.9 5 7 79.00 56.00 0.00 26.50 794.4 5 8 82.00 52.00 0.00 26.00 820.4 5 9 72.00 57.00 0.00 23.50 843.9 5 10 66.00 50.00 0.00 17.00 860.9 peak pheromone trap catch 5 11 70.00 48.00 0.00 18.00 878.9 5 12 80.00 47.00 0.00 22.50 901.4 5 13 85.00 49.00 0.00 26.00 927.4 5 14 86.00 53.00 0.00 28.50 955.9 peak female adult emergence 5 15 90.00 53.00 0.00 30.50 986.4 5 16 80.00 60.00 0.00 29.00 1015.4 peak egg laying 5 17 82.00 54.00 0.00 27.00 1042.4 5 18 72.00 54.00 0.00 22.00 1064.4 5 19 75.00 52.00 0.00 22.50 1086.9
DD accumulation on 5-19-18: 1087QA 98% ok    
  
This year is about  versus  QA
 11 days ahead 2017 ok
 11 days behind 2016 ok
 4 days ahead 30-yr normal ok
Forecast using:  Fox - IPPC forecast for MWQGV data
  5 20  70.40 58.90  0.04  23.65   1110.6  0.038_14.65%_precip.    
  5 21  84.40 58.40  0.00  30.40   1141.0  0.00_21.40%_precip.    
  5 22  88.80 58.90  0.03  32.85   1173.8  0.026_23.85%_precip.    
  5 23  84.90 69.20  0.11  36.05   1209.9  0.106_27.05%_precip.    
Forecast using: 10 yr Hist Avg MWQGV 2006-2015
  5 24  72.50 45.50  0.03  18.00   1227.9  *hist_fcst*    
  5 25  74.80 48.60  0.01  20.70   1248.6  *hist_fcst*    
  5 26  73.80 49.40  0.02  20.60   1269.2  *hist_fcst*    
  5 27  74.20 48.60  0.02  20.40   1289.6  *hist_fcst*   peak egg hatch
  5 28  72.60 48.00  0.05  19.30   1308.9  *hist_fcst*    
  5 29  74.50 47.80  0.02  20.15   1329.0  *hist_fcst*    
  5 30  77.20 48.10  0.01  21.65   1350.7  *hist_fcst*    
  5 31  80.20 50.40  0.00  24.30   1375.0  *hist_fcst*    
  6  1  82.40 53.30  0.02  26.85   1401.8  *hist_fcst*    
  6  2  80.80 54.00  0.05  26.40   1428.2  *hist_fcst*    
  6  3  78.30 52.10  0.07  24.20   1452.4  *hist_fcst*    
  6  4  77.70 52.60  0.12  24.15   1476.6  *hist_fcst*    
  6  5  78.50 50.50  0.10  23.50   1500.1  *hist_fcst*    
  6  6  77.10 51.80  0.01  23.45   1523.5  *hist_fcst*    
  6  7  78.00 51.10  0.00  23.55   1547.1  *hist_fcst*    
  6  8  78.10 48.90  0.02  22.50   1569.6  *hist_fcst*    
  6  9  79.90 51.80  0.02  24.85   1594.4  *hist_fcst*    
  6 10  77.90 51.30  0.01  23.60   1618.0  *hist_fcst*    
  6 11  77.60 49.50  0.01  22.55   1640.6  *hist_fcst*    
  6 12  79.20 50.20  0.00  23.70   1664.3  *hist_fcst*    
  6 13  80.20 49.90  0.02  24.05   1688.3  *hist_fcst*    
  6 14  77.00 48.30  0.03  21.65   1710.0  *hist_fcst*    
  6 15  78.40 48.50  0.00  22.45   1732.4  *hist_fcst*    
  6 16  78.90 49.00  0.00  22.95   1755.4  *hist_fcst*    
  6 17  80.60 50.70  0.01  24.65   1780.0  *hist_fcst*    
  6 18  80.10 50.90  0.04  24.50   1804.5  *hist_fcst*    
  6 19  77.70 51.60  0.04  23.65   1828.2  *hist_fcst*    
  6 20  79.70 50.20  0.00  23.95   1852.1  *hist_fcst*    
  6 21  80.60 51.40  0.01  25.00   1877.1  *hist_fcst*    
  6 22  81.10 51.90  0.01  25.50   1902.6  *hist_fcst*    
  6 23  82.40 51.70  0.01  26.05   1928.7  *hist_fcst*    
  6 24  80.50 52.50  0.02  25.50   1954.2  *hist_fcst*    
  6 25  82.60 53.40  0.02  27.00   1981.2  *hist_fcst*    
  6 26  83.50 52.60  0.02  27.05   2008.2  *hist_fcst*    
  6 27  84.30 54.00  0.01  28.15   2036.4  *hist_fcst*    
  6 28  89.10 56.50  0.00  31.80   2068.2  *hist_fcst*    
  6 29  90.60 57.70  0.01  33.15   2101.3  *hist_fcst*   peak in density large larvae
  6 30  86.10 56.00  0.03  30.05   2131.4  *hist_fcst*    
  7  1  87.20 57.30  0.00  31.25   2162.6  *hist_fcst*    
  7  2  90.80 58.20  0.00  33.50   2196.1  *hist_fcst*    
  7  3  93.00 57.80  0.00  34.40   2230.5  *hist_fcst*    
  7  4  91.70 58.30  0.00  34.00   2264.5  *hist_fcst*    
  7  5  90.70 57.50  0.00  33.10   2297.6  *hist_fcst*    
  7  6  91.20 57.00  0.00  33.10   2330.7  *hist_fcst*    
  7  7  90.70 55.70  0.00  32.20   2362.9  *hist_fcst*    
  7  8  92.20 56.90  0.00  33.55   2396.5  *hist_fcst*    
  7  9  92.40 58.60  0.00  34.50   2431.0  *hist_fcst*    
  7 10  94.10 60.10  0.00  36.10   2467.1  *hist_fcst*    
  7 11  92.60 58.00  0.00  34.30   2501.4  *hist_fcst*    
  7 12  92.10 57.50  0.00  33.80   2535.2  *hist_fcst*    
  7 13  88.80 57.70  0.00  32.25   2567.4  *hist_fcst*    
  7 14  87.30 56.80  0.00  31.05   2598.5  *hist_fcst*    
  7 15  91.50 56.90  0.00  33.20   2631.7  *hist_fcst*    
  7 16  91.70 59.10  0.00  34.40   2666.1  *hist_fcst*    
  7 17  92.00 59.60  0.01  34.80   2700.9  *hist_fcst*    
  7 18  91.80 59.50  0.00  34.65   2735.5  *hist_fcst*    
  7 19  90.60 59.60  0.01  34.10   2769.6  *hist_fcst*    
  7 20  90.60 58.80  0.00  33.70   2803.3  *hist_fcst*    
  7 21  90.50 58.00  0.00  33.25   2836.6  *hist_fcst*    
  7 22  91.40 57.90  0.00  33.65   2870.2  *hist_fcst*    
  7 23  90.80 58.90  0.00  33.85   2904.1  *hist_fcst*    
  7 24  90.30 57.00  0.01  32.65   2936.7  *hist_fcst*    
  7 25  91.60 57.50  0.00  33.55   2970.3  *hist_fcst*    
  7 26  91.30 57.20  0.01  33.25   3003.5  *hist_fcst*    
  7 27  92.60 59.00  0.00  34.80   3038.3  *hist_fcst*    
  7 28  91.70 58.20  0.00  33.95   3072.3  *hist_fcst*    
  7 29  91.50 57.40  0.00  33.45   3105.7  *hist_fcst*    
  7 30  91.60 58.10  0.00  33.85   3139.6  *hist_fcst*    
  7 31  91.60 57.90  0.00  33.75   3173.3  *hist_fcst*    
  8  1  91.80 56.90  0.00  33.35   3206.7  *hist_fcst*    
  8  2  92.10 58.00  0.00  34.05   3240.7  *hist_fcst*    
  8  3  91.00 56.70  0.00  32.85   3273.6  *hist_fcst*    
  8  4  90.10 57.20  0.00  32.65   3306.2  *hist_fcst*    
  8  5  92.60 58.00  0.00  34.30   3340.5  *hist_fcst*    
  8  6  92.90 56.90  0.00  33.90   3374.4  *hist_fcst*    
  8  7  91.10 57.70  0.00  33.40   3407.8  *hist_fcst*    
  8  8  91.30 57.80  0.00  33.55   3441.4  *hist_fcst*    
  8  9  89.10 56.80  0.02  31.95   3473.3  *hist_fcst*    
  8 10  87.40 55.10  0.00  30.25   3503.6  *hist_fcst*    
  8 11  87.40 55.30  0.00  30.35   3533.9  *hist_fcst*    
  8 12  89.00 56.80  0.00  31.90   3565.8  *hist_fcst*    
  8 13  91.00 57.60  0.00  33.30   3599.1  *hist_fcst*    
  8 14  90.40 56.50  0.02  32.45   3631.6  *hist_fcst*    
  8 15  89.30 56.70  0.01  32.00   3663.6  *hist_fcst*    
  8 16  89.40 56.20  0.00  31.80   3695.4  *hist_fcst*    
  8 17  89.70 55.30  0.00  31.50   3726.9  *hist_fcst*    
  8 18  91.60 56.50  0.00  33.05   3759.9  *hist_fcst*    
  8 19  91.30 57.10  0.02  33.20   3793.1  *hist_fcst*    
  8 20  90.30 56.90  0.03  32.60   3825.7  *hist_fcst*    
  8 21  88.90 55.30  0.00  31.10   3856.8  *hist_fcst*    
  8 22  87.30 53.20  0.00  29.25   3886.1  *hist_fcst*    
  8 23  84.50 52.80  0.00  27.65   3913.7  *hist_fcst*    
  8 24  84.70 52.30  0.00  27.50   3941.2  *hist_fcst*    
  8 25  86.50 54.30  0.01  29.40   3970.6  *hist_fcst*    
  8 26  86.70 53.20  0.02  28.95   3999.6  *hist_fcst*    
  8 27  86.80 53.20  0.00  29.00   4028.6  *hist_fcst*    
  8 28  87.70 54.70  0.00  30.20   4058.8  *hist_fcst*    
  8 29  87.30 54.60  0.00  29.95   4088.7  *hist_fcst*    
  8 30  84.80 53.40  0.00  28.10   4116.8  *hist_fcst*    
  8 31  81.40 50.90  0.00  25.15   4142.0  *hist_fcst*    
  9  1  80.70 49.30  0.01  24.00   4166.0  *hist_fcst*    
  9  2  82.90 50.10  0.00  25.50   4191.5  *hist_fcst*    
  9  3  84.00 50.50  0.00  26.25   4217.7  *hist_fcst*    
  9  4  82.80 50.80  0.00  25.80   4243.5  *hist_fcst*    
  9  5  82.60 51.50  0.00  26.05   4269.6  *hist_fcst*    
  9  6  83.30 51.80  0.04  26.55   4296.1  *hist_fcst*    
  9  7  81.10 51.30  0.01  25.20   4321.3  *hist_fcst*    
  9  8  81.60 50.70  0.01  25.15   4346.5  *hist_fcst*    
  9  9  82.00 51.20  0.01  25.60   4372.1  *hist_fcst*    
  9 10  82.50 50.10  0.00  25.30   4397.4  *hist_fcst*    
  9 11  81.50 49.00  0.00  24.25   4421.6  *hist_fcst*    
  9 12  83.60 48.80  0.00  25.20   4446.8  *hist_fcst*    
  9 13  87.20 50.30  0.00  27.75   4474.6  *hist_fcst*    
  9 14  85.20 50.40  0.00  26.80   4501.4  *hist_fcst*    
  9 15  81.50 48.90  0.00  24.20   4525.6  *hist_fcst*    
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight
Location: 2018 MWQGV Grandview WA
DD accumulation on 5-19-18: 1087 QA 98% ok  - show details 
  
This year is about  versus  QA
 11 days ahead 2017 ok
 11 days behind 2016 ok
 4 days ahead 30-yr normal ok
DateDDsEvent
 5-10-18 861peak pheromone trap catch
 5-14-18 956peak female adult emergence
 5-16-18 1015peak egg laying
 5-27-18 1290peak egg hatch
 6-29-18 2101peak in density large larvae
degree-day graph of orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Knight (1988)