Online Phenology Models and Degree-day Calculator
immaturedamagepupaadult
orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
insect model of Knight (1988)


Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
	Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================ Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Type: insect Model source/other links: Knight (1988) Calculation method: single sine Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default) Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1 Ending date: 9 15 Model validation status: partly validated Region of known use: Pacific Northwest ==============================EVENTS TABLE================================ 1. 850 DDs after biofix: peak pheromone trap catch 2. 950 DDs after biofix: peak female adult emergence 3. 1000 DDs after biofix: peak egg laying 4. 1270 DDs after biofix: peak egg hatch 5. 2070 DDs after biofix: peak in density large larvae ==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================ Weather station: 2017 MWQGV PDTWFO Grandview WA Lat46.2528 Long-119.8939 Elev:833 mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event -- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- ------- 1 1 29.00 22.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 * START * 1 2 26.00 22.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 3 24.00 19.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 4 26.00 12.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 5 19.00 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 6 14.60 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 Vx 1 7 17.00 0.60 0.00 0.00 0.0 Vx Vn 1 8 25.10 17.10 0.00 0.00 0.0 Vx Vn 1 9 30.40 17.40 0.00 0.00 0.0 Vx Vn 1 10 26.40 18.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 Vx Vn 1 11 23.00 16.50 0.00 0.00 0.0 Vx Vn 1 12 17.10 6.10 0.00 0.00 0.0 Vx Vn 1 13 12.10 2.10 0.00 0.00 0.0 Vx Vn 1 14 13.10 4.70 0.00 0.00 0.0 Vx Vn 1 15 14.80 11.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 Vx Vn 1 16 17.30 6.70 0.00 0.00 0.0 Vx Vn 1 17 19.90 10.30 0.00 0.00 0.0 Vx Vn 1 18 29.00 20.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 Vx Vn 1 19 36.20 21.30 0.00 0.00 0.0 Vx Vn 1 20 31.00 22.70 0.00 0.00 0.0 Vx Vn 1 21 35.70 28.40 0.00 0.00 0.0 Vx Vn 1 22 34.20 29.50 0.00 0.00 0.0 Vx Vn 1 23 33.30 30.40 0.00 0.00 0.0 Vx Vn 1 24 30.40 26.30 0.00 0.00 0.0 Vx Vn 1 25 28.00 24.40 0.00 0.00 0.0 Vx Vn 1 26 33.10 27.10 0.00 0.00 0.0 Vx Vn 1 27 33.00 29.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 28 34.00 31.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 29 32.00 28.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 30 30.00 28.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 31 34.00 20.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 2 1 30.00 8.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 2 2 29.00 24.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 2 3 26.00 21.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 2 4 31.00 20.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 2 5 30.00 18.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 2 6 44.00 26.00 0.00 0.53 0.5 2 7 28.00 21.00 0.00 0.00 0.5 2 8 28.00 25.00 0.00 0.00 0.5 2 9 44.00 26.00 0.00 0.53 1.1 2 10 48.00 35.00 0.00 2.33 3.4 2 11 45.00 26.00 0.00 0.80 4.2 2 12 38.00 19.00 0.00 0.00 4.2 2 13 36.00 16.00 0.00 0.00 4.2 2 14 30.00 16.00 0.00 0.00 4.2 2 15 31.00 23.00 0.00 0.00 4.2 2 16 37.00 30.00 0.00 0.00 4.2 2 17 43.00 32.00 0.00 0.37 4.5 2 18 39.00 34.00 0.00 0.00 4.5 2 19 49.00 32.00 0.00 2.46 7.0 2 20 48.00 36.00 0.00 2.44 9.4 2 21 40.00 34.00 0.00 0.00 9.4 2 22 44.00 27.00 0.00 0.54 10.0 2 23 44.00 22.00 0.00 0.48 10.5 2 24 41.00 21.00 0.00 0.00 10.5 2 25 44.00 20.00 0.00 0.46 10.9 2 26 38.00 33.00 0.00 0.00 10.9 2 27 41.00 30.00 0.00 0.00 10.9 2 28 46.00 25.00 0.00 1.06 12.0 3 1 53.00 40.00 0.00 5.62 17.6 3 2 48.00 35.00 0.00 2.33 19.9 3 3 53.00 34.00 0.00 4.38 24.3 3 4 48.00 37.00 0.00 2.57 26.9 3 5 46.00 34.00 0.00 1.44 28.3 3 6 47.00 34.00 0.00 1.83 30.1 3 7 46.00 34.00 0.00 1.44 31.6 3 8 52.00 33.00 0.00 3.81 35.4 3 9 44.00 36.00 0.00 0.81 36.2 3 10 64.00 42.00 0.00 12.00 48.2 3 11 57.00 35.00 0.00 6.37 54.6 3 12 56.00 39.00 0.00 6.79 61.4 3 13 54.00 44.00 0.00 8.00 69.4 3 14 67.00 46.00 0.00 15.50 84.9 3 15 64.00 50.00 0.00 16.00 100.9 3 16 54.00 39.00 0.00 5.81 106.7 3 17 51.00 32.00 0.00 3.28 110.0 3 18 61.00 41.00 0.00 10.00 120.0 3 19 52.00 30.00 0.00 3.50 123.5 3 20 51.00 31.00 0.00 3.18 126.6 3 21 49.00 37.00 0.00 3.02 129.7 3 22 59.00 37.00 0.00 7.74 137.4 3 23 56.00 30.00 0.00 5.19 142.6 3 24 57.00 43.40 0.00 9.20 151.8 Vn 3 25 57.00 42.00 0.00 8.50 160.3 3 26 49.00 38.00 0.00 3.18 163.5 3 27 60.00 39.00 0.00 8.76 172.2 3 28 58.00 38.00 0.00 7.50 179.7 3 29 60.00 44.80 0.00 11.40 191.1 Vn 3 30 60.00 36.00 0.00 7.99 199.1 3 31 62.00 34.00 0.00 8.53 207.6 4 1 66.00 40.00 0.00 12.08 219.7 4 2 58.00 36.00 0.00 7.04 226.8 4 3 56.00 30.00 0.00 5.19 231.9 4 4 63.60 38.30 0.00 10.33 242.3 Hx Hn 4 5 62.00 46.00 0.00 13.00 255.3 4 6 64.00 45.00 0.00 13.50 268.8 4 7 61.00 45.00 0.00 12.00 280.8 4 8 57.00 38.00 0.00 7.01 287.8 4 9 55.00 30.00 0.00 4.76 292.5 4 10 58.00 38.00 0.00 7.50 300.1 4 11 59.00 31.00 0.00 6.64 306.7 4 12 57.00 45.00 0.00 10.00 316.7 4 13 59.00 40.00 0.00 8.60 325.3 4 14 58.00 34.00 0.00 6.66 331.9 4 15 58.00 30.00 0.00 6.06 338.0 4 16 64.00 33.00 0.00 9.27 347.3 4 17 64.00 45.00 0.00 13.50 360.8 4 18 64.00 45.00 0.00 13.50 374.3 4 19 65.00 38.00 0.00 10.93 385.2 4 20 63.00 44.00 0.00 12.50 397.7 4 21 64.00 37.00 0.00 10.16 407.9 4 22 66.00 41.00 0.00 12.50 420.4 4 23 63.00 42.00 0.00 11.50 431.9 4 24 56.00 44.00 0.00 9.00 440.9 4 25 61.00 39.00 0.00 9.26 450.1
DD accumulation on 4-25-17: 450QA 60% ok - Suspect - 40% of data estimated  Consider using a different Station!  
  
This year is about  versus  QA
 21 days behind 2016 ok
 27 days behind 2015 ok
 10 days behind 30-yr normal ok
Forecast using:  Fox - IPPC forecast for MWQGV data
  4 26  55.30 42.20  0.00   7.75    457.9  0.00_1.07%_precip.    
  4 27  57.90 39.20  0.00   7.79    465.7  0.00_1.67%_precip.    
  4 28  59.50 40.90  0.00   9.20    474.9  0.00_2.43%_precip.    
  4 29  63.40 41.30  0.04  11.35    486.2  0.037_4.06%_precip.    
  4 30  57.80 43.10  0.04   9.45    495.7  0.039_2.07%_precip.    
Forecast using: 10 yr Hist Avg MWQGV 2006-2015
  5  1  67.50 36.60  0.00  11.76    507.4  *hist_fcst*    
  5  2  68.10 38.80  0.02  12.71    520.1  *hist_fcst*    
  5  3  67.90 40.50  0.02  13.23    533.4  *hist_fcst*    
  5  4  66.90 40.60  0.02  12.77    546.1  *hist_fcst*    
  5  5  68.90 40.60  0.02  13.77    559.9  *hist_fcst*    
  5  6  69.20 40.70  0.01  13.96    573.9  *hist_fcst*    
  5  7  70.10 41.70  0.01  14.90    588.8  *hist_fcst*    
  5  8  72.80 42.20  0.00  16.50    605.3  *hist_fcst*    
  5  9  73.50 41.70  0.02  16.60    621.9  *hist_fcst*    
  5 10  72.60 42.00  0.00  16.30    638.2  *hist_fcst*    
  5 11  73.50 44.80  0.01  18.15    656.3  *hist_fcst*    
  5 12  74.80 43.70  0.02  18.25    674.6  *hist_fcst*    
  5 13  71.90 42.50  0.12  16.20    690.8  *hist_fcst*    
  5 14  71.80 43.30  0.04  16.55    707.3  *hist_fcst*    
  5 15  78.30 46.10  0.11  21.20    728.5  *hist_fcst*    
  5 16  79.70 48.90  0.00  23.30    751.8  *hist_fcst*    
  5 17  81.50 49.40  0.00  24.45    776.3  *hist_fcst*    
  5 18  80.30 49.20  0.04  23.75    800.0  *hist_fcst*    
  5 19  79.50 49.40  0.01  23.45    823.5  *hist_fcst*    
  5 20  76.80 47.70  0.07  21.25    844.7  *hist_fcst*    
  5 21  73.60 47.00  0.05  19.30    864.0  *hist_fcst*   peak pheromone trap catch
  5 22  70.80 46.10  0.09  17.45    881.5  *hist_fcst*    
  5 23  71.50 46.10  0.05  17.80    899.3  *hist_fcst*    
  5 24  72.50 45.50  0.03  18.00    917.3  *hist_fcst*    
  5 25  74.80 48.60  0.01  20.70    938.0  *hist_fcst*    
  5 26  73.80 49.40  0.02  20.60    958.6  *hist_fcst*   peak female adult emergence
  5 27  74.20 48.60  0.02  20.40    979.0  *hist_fcst*    
  5 28  72.60 48.00  0.05  19.30    998.3  *hist_fcst*    
  5 29  74.50 47.80  0.02  20.15   1018.4  *hist_fcst*   peak egg laying
  5 30  77.20 48.10  0.01  21.65   1040.1  *hist_fcst*    
  5 31  80.20 50.40  0.00  24.30   1064.4  *hist_fcst*    
  6  1  82.40 53.30  0.02  26.85   1091.2  *hist_fcst*    
  6  2  80.80 54.00  0.05  26.40   1117.6  *hist_fcst*    
  6  3  78.30 52.10  0.07  24.20   1141.8  *hist_fcst*    
  6  4  77.70 52.60  0.12  24.15   1166.0  *hist_fcst*    
  6  5  78.50 50.50  0.10  23.50   1189.5  *hist_fcst*    
  6  6  77.10 51.80  0.01  23.45   1212.9  *hist_fcst*    
  6  7  78.00 51.10  0.00  23.55   1236.5  *hist_fcst*    
  6  8  78.10 48.90  0.02  22.50   1259.0  *hist_fcst*    
  6  9  79.90 51.80  0.02  24.85   1283.8  *hist_fcst*   peak egg hatch
  6 10  77.90 51.30  0.01  23.60   1307.4  *hist_fcst*    
  6 11  77.60 49.50  0.01  22.55   1330.0  *hist_fcst*    
  6 12  79.20 50.20  0.00  23.70   1353.7  *hist_fcst*    
  6 13  80.20 49.90  0.02  24.05   1377.7  *hist_fcst*    
  6 14  77.00 48.30  0.03  21.65   1399.4  *hist_fcst*    
  6 15  78.40 48.50  0.00  22.45   1421.8  *hist_fcst*    
  6 16  78.90 49.00  0.00  22.95   1444.8  *hist_fcst*    
  6 17  80.60 50.70  0.01  24.65   1469.4  *hist_fcst*    
  6 18  80.10 50.90  0.04  24.50   1493.9  *hist_fcst*    
  6 19  77.70 51.60  0.04  23.65   1517.6  *hist_fcst*    
  6 20  79.70 50.20  0.00  23.95   1541.5  *hist_fcst*    
  6 21  80.60 51.40  0.01  25.00   1566.5  *hist_fcst*    
  6 22  81.10 51.90  0.01  25.50   1592.0  *hist_fcst*    
  6 23  82.40 51.70  0.01  26.05   1618.1  *hist_fcst*    
  6 24  80.50 52.50  0.02  25.50   1643.6  *hist_fcst*    
  6 25  82.60 53.40  0.02  27.00   1670.6  *hist_fcst*    
  6 26  83.50 52.60  0.02  27.05   1697.6  *hist_fcst*    
  6 27  84.30 54.00  0.01  28.15   1725.8  *hist_fcst*    
  6 28  89.10 56.50  0.00  31.80   1757.6  *hist_fcst*    
  6 29  90.60 57.70  0.01  33.15   1790.7  *hist_fcst*    
  6 30  86.10 56.00  0.03  30.05   1820.8  *hist_fcst*    
  7  1  87.20 57.30  0.00  31.25   1852.0  *hist_fcst*    
  7  2  90.80 58.20  0.00  33.50   1885.5  *hist_fcst*    
  7  3  93.00 57.80  0.00  34.40   1919.9  *hist_fcst*    
  7  4  91.70 58.30  0.00  34.00   1953.9  *hist_fcst*    
  7  5  90.70 57.50  0.00  33.10   1987.0  *hist_fcst*    
  7  6  91.20 57.00  0.00  33.10   2020.1  *hist_fcst*    
  7  7  90.70 55.70  0.00  32.20   2052.3  *hist_fcst*    
  7  8  92.20 56.90  0.00  33.55   2085.9  *hist_fcst*   peak in density large larvae
  7  9  92.40 58.60  0.00  34.50   2120.4  *hist_fcst*    
  7 10  94.10 60.10  0.00  36.10   2156.5  *hist_fcst*    
  7 11  92.60 58.00  0.00  34.30   2190.8  *hist_fcst*    
  7 12  92.10 57.50  0.00  33.80   2224.6  *hist_fcst*    
  7 13  88.80 57.70  0.00  32.25   2256.8  *hist_fcst*    
  7 14  87.30 56.80  0.00  31.05   2287.9  *hist_fcst*    
  7 15  91.50 56.90  0.00  33.20   2321.1  *hist_fcst*    
  7 16  91.70 59.10  0.00  34.40   2355.5  *hist_fcst*    
  7 17  92.00 59.60  0.01  34.80   2390.3  *hist_fcst*    
  7 18  91.80 59.50  0.00  34.65   2424.9  *hist_fcst*    
  7 19  90.60 59.60  0.01  34.10   2459.0  *hist_fcst*    
  7 20  90.60 58.80  0.00  33.70   2492.7  *hist_fcst*    
  7 21  90.50 58.00  0.00  33.25   2526.0  *hist_fcst*    
  7 22  91.40 57.90  0.00  33.65   2559.6  *hist_fcst*    
  7 23  90.80 58.90  0.00  33.85   2593.5  *hist_fcst*    
  7 24  90.30 57.00  0.01  32.65   2626.1  *hist_fcst*    
  7 25  91.60 57.50  0.00  33.55   2659.7  *hist_fcst*    
  7 26  91.30 57.20  0.01  33.25   2692.9  *hist_fcst*    
  7 27  92.60 59.00  0.00  34.80   2727.7  *hist_fcst*    
  7 28  91.70 58.20  0.00  33.95   2761.7  *hist_fcst*    
  7 29  91.50 57.40  0.00  33.45   2795.1  *hist_fcst*    
  7 30  91.60 58.10  0.00  33.85   2829.0  *hist_fcst*    
  7 31  91.60 57.90  0.00  33.75   2862.7  *hist_fcst*    
  8  1  91.80 56.90  0.00  33.35   2896.1  *hist_fcst*    
  8  2  92.10 58.00  0.00  34.05   2930.1  *hist_fcst*    
  8  3  91.00 56.70  0.00  32.85   2963.0  *hist_fcst*    
  8  4  90.10 57.20  0.00  32.65   2995.6  *hist_fcst*    
  8  5  92.60 58.00  0.00  34.30   3029.9  *hist_fcst*    
  8  6  92.90 56.90  0.00  33.90   3063.8  *hist_fcst*    
  8  7  91.10 57.70  0.00  33.40   3097.2  *hist_fcst*    
  8  8  91.30 57.80  0.00  33.55   3130.8  *hist_fcst*    
  8  9  89.10 56.80  0.02  31.95   3162.7  *hist_fcst*    
  8 10  87.40 55.10  0.00  30.25   3193.0  *hist_fcst*    
  8 11  87.40 55.30  0.00  30.35   3223.3  *hist_fcst*    
  8 12  89.00 56.80  0.00  31.90   3255.2  *hist_fcst*    
  8 13  91.00 57.60  0.00  33.30   3288.5  *hist_fcst*    
  8 14  90.40 56.50  0.02  32.45   3321.0  *hist_fcst*    
  8 15  89.30 56.70  0.01  32.00   3353.0  *hist_fcst*    
  8 16  89.40 56.20  0.00  31.80   3384.8  *hist_fcst*    
  8 17  89.70 55.30  0.00  31.50   3416.3  *hist_fcst*    
  8 18  91.60 56.50  0.00  33.05   3449.3  *hist_fcst*    
  8 19  91.30 57.10  0.02  33.20   3482.5  *hist_fcst*    
  8 20  90.30 56.90  0.03  32.60   3515.1  *hist_fcst*    
  8 21  88.90 55.30  0.00  31.10   3546.2  *hist_fcst*    
  8 22  87.30 53.20  0.00  29.25   3575.5  *hist_fcst*    
  8 23  84.50 52.80  0.00  27.65   3603.1  *hist_fcst*    
  8 24  84.70 52.30  0.00  27.50   3630.6  *hist_fcst*    
  8 25  86.50 54.30  0.01  29.40   3660.0  *hist_fcst*    
  8 26  86.70 53.20  0.02  28.95   3689.0  *hist_fcst*    
  8 27  86.80 53.20  0.00  29.00   3718.0  *hist_fcst*    
  8 28  87.70 54.70  0.00  30.20   3748.2  *hist_fcst*    
  8 29  87.30 54.60  0.00  29.95   3778.1  *hist_fcst*    
  8 30  84.80 53.40  0.00  28.10   3806.2  *hist_fcst*    
  8 31  81.40 50.90  0.00  25.15   3831.4  *hist_fcst*    
  9  1  80.70 49.30  0.01  24.00   3855.4  *hist_fcst*    
  9  2  82.90 50.10  0.00  25.50   3880.9  *hist_fcst*    
  9  3  84.00 50.50  0.00  26.25   3907.1  *hist_fcst*    
  9  4  82.80 50.80  0.00  25.80   3932.9  *hist_fcst*    
  9  5  82.60 51.50  0.00  26.05   3959.0  *hist_fcst*    
  9  6  83.30 51.80  0.04  26.55   3985.5  *hist_fcst*    
  9  7  81.10 51.30  0.01  25.20   4010.7  *hist_fcst*    
  9  8  81.60 50.70  0.01  25.15   4035.9  *hist_fcst*    
  9  9  82.00 51.20  0.01  25.60   4061.5  *hist_fcst*    
  9 10  82.50 50.10  0.00  25.30   4086.8  *hist_fcst*    
  9 11  81.50 49.00  0.00  24.25   4111.0  *hist_fcst*    
  9 12  83.60 48.80  0.00  25.20   4136.2  *hist_fcst*    
  9 13  87.20 50.30  0.00  27.75   4164.0  *hist_fcst*    
  9 14  85.20 50.40  0.00  26.80   4190.8  *hist_fcst*    
  9 15  81.50 48.90  0.00  24.20   4215.0  *hist_fcst*    
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight
Location: 2017 MWQGV Grandview WA
QA 100% ok  - show detailsDD accumulation on 4-25-17: 450QA 60% ok - Suspect - 40% of data estimated  - check weather data/Consider using a different Station! 
  
This year is about  versus  QA
 21 days behind 2016 ok
 27 days behind 2015 ok
 10 days behind 30-yr normal ok
DateDDsEvent
 5-21-17 864peak pheromone trap catch
 5-26-17 959peak female adult emergence
 5-29-17 1018peak egg laying
 6-9-17 1284peak egg hatch
 7-8-17 2086peak in density large larvae
degree-day graph of orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Knight (1988)