Online Phenology Models and Degree-day Calculator
immaturedamagepupaadult
orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
insect model of Knight (1988)


Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
	Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================ Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Type: insect Model source/other links: Knight (1988) Calculation method: single sine Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default) Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1 Ending date: 9 15 Model validation status: partly validated Region of known use: Pacific Northwest ==============================EVENTS TABLE================================ 1. 850 DDs after biofix: peak pheromone trap catch 2. 950 DDs after biofix: peak female adult emergence 3. 1000 DDs after biofix: peak egg laying 4. 1270 DDs after biofix: peak egg hatch 5. 2070 DDs after biofix: peak in density large larvae ==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================ Weather station: 2017 MWQGV PDTWFO Grandview WA Lat46.2528 Long-119.8939 Elev:833 mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event -- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- ------- 1 1 29.00 22.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 * START * 1 2 26.00 22.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 3 24.00 19.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 4 26.00 12.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 5 19.00 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 6 14.60 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 Vx 1 7 17.00 0.60 0.00 0.00 0.0 Vx Vn 1 8 25.10 17.10 0.00 0.00 0.0 Vx Vn 1 9 30.40 17.40 0.00 0.00 0.0 Vx Vn 1 10 26.40 18.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 Vx Vn 1 11 23.00 16.50 0.00 0.00 0.0 Vx Vn 1 12 17.10 6.10 0.00 0.00 0.0 Vx Vn 1 13 12.10 2.10 0.00 0.00 0.0 Vx Vn 1 14 13.10 4.70 0.00 0.00 0.0 Vx Vn 1 15 14.80 11.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 Vx Vn 1 16 17.30 6.70 0.00 0.00 0.0 Vx Vn 1 17 19.90 10.30 0.00 0.00 0.0 Vx Vn 1 18 29.00 20.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 Vx Vn 1 19 36.20 21.30 0.00 0.00 0.0 Vx Vn 1 20 31.00 22.70 0.00 0.00 0.0 Vx Vn 1 21 35.70 28.40 0.00 0.00 0.0 Vx Vn 1 22 34.20 29.50 0.00 0.00 0.0 Vx Vn 1 23 33.30 30.40 0.00 0.00 0.0 Vx Vn 1 24 30.40 26.30 0.00 0.00 0.0 Vx Vn 1 25 28.00 24.40 0.00 0.00 0.0 Vx Vn 1 26 33.10 27.10 0.00 0.00 0.0 Vx Vn 1 27 33.00 29.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 28 34.00 31.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 29 32.00 28.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 30 30.00 28.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 31 34.00 20.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 2 1 30.00 8.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 2 2 29.00 24.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 2 3 26.00 21.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 2 4 31.00 20.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 2 5 30.00 18.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 2 6 44.00 26.00 0.00 0.53 0.5 2 7 28.00 21.00 0.00 0.00 0.5 2 8 28.00 25.00 0.00 0.00 0.5 2 9 44.00 26.00 0.00 0.53 1.1 2 10 48.00 35.00 0.00 2.33 3.4 2 11 45.00 26.00 0.00 0.80 4.2 2 12 38.00 19.00 0.00 0.00 4.2 2 13 36.00 16.00 0.00 0.00 4.2 2 14 30.00 16.00 0.00 0.00 4.2 2 15 31.00 23.00 0.00 0.00 4.2 2 16 37.00 30.00 0.00 0.00 4.2 2 17 43.00 32.00 0.00 0.37 4.5 2 18 39.00 34.00 0.00 0.00 4.5 2 19 49.00 32.00 0.00 2.46 7.0 2 20 48.00 36.00 0.00 2.44 9.4 2 21 40.00 34.00 0.00 0.00 9.4 2 22 44.00 27.00 0.00 0.54 10.0 2 23 44.00 22.00 0.00 0.48 10.5 2 24 41.00 21.00 0.00 0.00 10.5 2 25 44.00 20.00 0.00 0.46 10.9 2 26 38.00 33.00 0.00 0.00 10.9 2 27 41.00 30.00 0.00 0.00 10.9 2 28 46.00 25.00 0.00 1.06 12.0 3 1 53.00 40.00 0.00 5.62 17.6 3 2 48.00 35.00 0.00 2.33 19.9 3 3 53.00 34.00 0.00 4.38 24.3 3 4 48.00 37.00 0.00 2.57 26.9 3 5 46.00 34.00 0.00 1.44 28.3 3 6 47.00 34.00 0.00 1.83 30.1 3 7 46.00 34.00 0.00 1.44 31.6 3 8 52.00 33.00 0.00 3.81 35.4 3 9 44.00 36.00 0.00 0.81 36.2 3 10 64.00 42.00 0.00 12.00 48.2 3 11 57.00 35.00 0.00 6.37 54.6 3 12 56.00 39.00 0.00 6.79 61.4 3 13 54.00 44.00 0.00 8.00 69.4 3 14 67.00 46.00 0.00 15.50 84.9 3 15 64.00 50.00 0.00 16.00 100.9 3 16 54.00 39.00 0.00 5.81 106.7 3 17 51.00 32.00 0.00 3.28 110.0 3 18 61.00 41.00 0.00 10.00 120.0 3 19 52.00 30.00 0.00 3.50 123.5 3 20 51.00 31.00 0.00 3.18 126.6 3 21 49.00 37.00 0.00 3.02 129.7 3 22 59.00 37.00 0.00 7.74 137.4 3 23 56.00 30.00 0.00 5.19 142.6 3 24 57.00 43.40 0.00 9.20 151.8 Vn 3 25 57.00 42.00 0.00 8.50 160.3 3 26 49.00 38.00 0.00 3.18 163.5 3 27 60.00 39.00 0.00 8.76 172.2 3 28 58.00 38.00 0.00 7.50 179.7 3 29 60.00 44.80 0.00 11.40 191.1 Vn 3 30 60.00 36.00 0.00 7.99 199.1 3 31 62.00 34.00 0.00 8.53 207.6 4 1 66.00 40.00 0.00 12.08 219.7 4 2 58.00 36.00 0.00 7.04 226.8 4 3 56.00 30.00 0.00 5.19 231.9 4 4 63.60 38.30 0.00 10.33 242.3 Hx Hn 4 5 62.00 46.00 0.00 13.00 255.3 4 6 64.00 45.00 0.00 13.50 268.8 4 7 61.00 45.00 0.00 12.00 280.8 4 8 57.00 38.00 0.00 7.01 287.8 4 9 55.00 30.00 0.00 4.76 292.5 4 10 58.00 38.00 0.00 7.50 300.1 4 11 59.00 31.00 0.00 6.64 306.7 4 12 57.00 45.00 0.00 10.00 316.7 4 13 59.00 40.00 0.00 8.60 325.3 4 14 58.00 34.00 0.00 6.66 331.9 4 15 58.00 30.00 0.00 6.06 338.0 4 16 64.00 33.00 0.00 9.27 347.3 4 17 64.00 45.00 0.00 13.50 360.8 4 18 64.00 45.00 0.00 13.50 374.3 4 19 65.00 38.00 0.00 10.93 385.2 4 20 63.00 44.00 0.00 12.50 397.7 4 21 64.00 37.00 0.00 10.16 407.9 4 22 66.00 41.00 0.00 12.50 420.4 4 23 63.00 42.00 0.00 11.50 431.9 4 24 56.00 44.00 0.00 9.00 440.9 4 25 61.00 39.00 0.00 9.26 450.1 4 26 63.00 44.00 0.00 12.50 462.6 4 27 60.00 38.00 0.00 8.48 471.1 4 28 63.00 36.00 0.00 9.43 480.5 4 29 64.00 36.00 0.00 9.91 490.4 4 30 64.00 50.00 0.00 16.00 506.4 5 1 59.00 36.00 0.00 7.51 514.0 5 2 66.00 48.00 0.00 16.00 530.0 5 3 78.00 55.00 0.00 25.50 555.5 5 4 84.00 54.00 0.00 28.00 583.5 5 5 72.00 54.00 0.00 22.00 605.5 5 6 63.00 45.00 0.00 13.00 618.5 5 7 65.00 34.00 0.00 9.95 628.4 5 8 70.00 40.00 0.00 14.08 642.5 5 9 75.00 43.00 0.00 18.00 660.5 5 10 79.00 47.00 0.00 22.00 682.5 5 11 67.00 48.00 0.00 16.50 699.0 5 12 61.00 46.00 0.00 12.50 711.5 5 13 59.00 41.00 0.00 9.00 720.5 5 14 62.00 36.00 0.00 8.95 729.4 5 15 65.00 38.00 0.00 10.93 740.4 5 16 60.00 47.00 0.00 12.50 752.9 5 17 70.00 40.00 0.00 14.08 766.9 5 18 72.00 45.00 0.00 17.50 784.4 5 19 77.00 50.00 0.00 22.50 806.9 5 20 76.00 54.00 0.00 24.00 830.9 5 21 81.00 48.00 0.00 23.50 854.4 peak pheromone trap catch 5 22 84.00 52.00 0.00 27.00 881.4 5 23 92.00 53.00 0.00 31.50 912.9 5 24 69.00 51.00 0.00 19.00 931.9 5 25 68.00 47.00 0.00 16.50 948.4 5 26 78.00 44.00 0.00 20.00 968.4 peak female adult emergence 5 27 84.00 50.00 0.00 26.00 994.4 5 28 88.00 52.00 0.00 29.00 1023.4 peak egg laying 5 29 91.00 56.00 0.00 32.50 1055.9 5 30 90.00 59.00 0.00 33.50 1089.4 5 31 72.00 53.00 0.00 21.50 1110.9 6 1 76.00 54.00 0.00 24.00 1134.9 6 2 80.00 50.00 0.00 24.00 1158.9 6 3 83.00 54.00 0.00 27.50 1186.4 6 4 74.00 55.00 0.00 23.50 1209.9 6 5 75.00 43.00 0.00 18.00 1227.9 6 6 85.00 52.00 0.00 27.50 1255.4 6 7 87.00 58.00 0.00 31.50 1286.9 peak egg hatch 6 8 75.00 56.00 0.00 24.50 1311.4 6 9 69.00 42.00 0.00 14.50 1325.9 6 10 69.00 42.00 0.00 14.50 1340.4 6 11 74.00 42.00 0.00 17.00 1357.4 6 12 77.00 56.00 0.00 25.50 1382.9 6 13 74.00 46.00 0.00 19.00 1401.9 6 14 71.00 44.00 0.00 16.50 1418.4 6 15 68.00 52.00 0.00 19.00 1437.4 6 16 72.00 58.00 0.00 24.00 1461.4 6 17 77.00 45.00 0.00 20.00 1481.4 6 18 86.00 55.00 0.00 29.50 1510.9 6 19 92.00 60.00 0.00 35.00 1545.9 6 20 88.00 62.00 0.00 34.00 1579.9 6 21 83.00 58.00 0.00 29.50 1609.4 6 22 78.00 50.00 0.00 23.00 1632.4 6 23 86.00 50.00 0.00 27.00 1659.4 6 24 90.00 53.00 0.00 30.50 1689.9 QA 74% ok - Caution - 26% of data estimated  
Forecast using:  Fox - IPPC forecast for MWQGV data
  6 25  98.70 58.20  0.00  37.45   1727.4  0.00_28.45%_precip.    
  6 26  90.80 67.50  0.01  38.15   1765.5  0.008_29.15%_precip.    
  6 27  84.80 54.60  0.00  28.70   1794.2  0.00_19.70%_precip.    
  6 28  82.00 47.40  0.00  23.70   1817.9  0.00_14.80%_precip.    
  6 29  83.30 50.80  0.00  26.05   1844.0  0.00_17.05%_precip.    
Forecast using: 10 yr Hist Avg MWQGV 2006-2015
  6 30  86.10 56.00  0.03  30.05   1874.0  *hist_fcst*    
  7  1  87.20 57.30  0.00  31.25   1905.3  *hist_fcst*    
  7  2  90.80 58.20  0.00  33.50   1938.8  *hist_fcst*    
  7  3  93.00 57.80  0.00  34.40   1973.2  *hist_fcst*    
  7  4  91.70 58.30  0.00  34.00   2007.2  *hist_fcst*    
  7  5  90.70 57.50  0.00  33.10   2040.3  *hist_fcst*    
  7  6  91.20 57.00  0.00  33.10   2073.4  *hist_fcst*   peak in density large larvae
  7  7  90.70 55.70  0.00  32.20   2105.6  *hist_fcst*    
  7  8  92.20 56.90  0.00  33.55   2139.1  *hist_fcst*    
  7  9  92.40 58.60  0.00  34.50   2173.6  *hist_fcst*    
  7 10  94.10 60.10  0.00  36.10   2209.7  *hist_fcst*    
  7 11  92.60 58.00  0.00  34.30   2244.0  *hist_fcst*    
  7 12  92.10 57.50  0.00  33.80   2277.8  *hist_fcst*    
  7 13  88.80 57.70  0.00  32.25   2310.1  *hist_fcst*    
  7 14  87.30 56.80  0.00  31.05   2341.1  *hist_fcst*    
  7 15  91.50 56.90  0.00  33.20   2374.3  *hist_fcst*    
  7 16  91.70 59.10  0.00  34.40   2408.7  *hist_fcst*    
  7 17  92.00 59.60  0.01  34.80   2443.5  *hist_fcst*    
  7 18  91.80 59.50  0.00  34.65   2478.2  *hist_fcst*    
  7 19  90.60 59.60  0.01  34.10   2512.3  *hist_fcst*    
  7 20  90.60 58.80  0.00  33.70   2546.0  *hist_fcst*    
  7 21  90.50 58.00  0.00  33.25   2579.2  *hist_fcst*    
  7 22  91.40 57.90  0.00  33.65   2612.9  *hist_fcst*    
  7 23  90.80 58.90  0.00  33.85   2646.7  *hist_fcst*    
  7 24  90.30 57.00  0.01  32.65   2679.4  *hist_fcst*    
  7 25  91.60 57.50  0.00  33.55   2712.9  *hist_fcst*    
  7 26  91.30 57.20  0.01  33.25   2746.2  *hist_fcst*    
  7 27  92.60 59.00  0.00  34.80   2781.0  *hist_fcst*    
  7 28  91.70 58.20  0.00  33.95   2814.9  *hist_fcst*    
  7 29  91.50 57.40  0.00  33.45   2848.4  *hist_fcst*    
  7 30  91.60 58.10  0.00  33.85   2882.2  *hist_fcst*    
  7 31  91.60 57.90  0.00  33.75   2916.0  *hist_fcst*    
  8  1  91.80 56.90  0.00  33.35   2949.3  *hist_fcst*    
  8  2  92.10 58.00  0.00  34.05   2983.4  *hist_fcst*    
  8  3  91.00 56.70  0.00  32.85   3016.2  *hist_fcst*    
  8  4  90.10 57.20  0.00  32.65   3048.9  *hist_fcst*    
  8  5  92.60 58.00  0.00  34.30   3083.2  *hist_fcst*    
  8  6  92.90 56.90  0.00  33.90   3117.1  *hist_fcst*    
  8  7  91.10 57.70  0.00  33.40   3150.5  *hist_fcst*    
  8  8  91.30 57.80  0.00  33.55   3184.0  *hist_fcst*    
  8  9  89.10 56.80  0.02  31.95   3216.0  *hist_fcst*    
  8 10  87.40 55.10  0.00  30.25   3246.2  *hist_fcst*    
  8 11  87.40 55.30  0.00  30.35   3276.6  *hist_fcst*    
  8 12  89.00 56.80  0.00  31.90   3308.5  *hist_fcst*    
  8 13  91.00 57.60  0.00  33.30   3341.8  *hist_fcst*    
  8 14  90.40 56.50  0.02  32.45   3374.2  *hist_fcst*    
  8 15  89.30 56.70  0.01  32.00   3406.2  *hist_fcst*    
  8 16  89.40 56.20  0.00  31.80   3438.0  *hist_fcst*    
  8 17  89.70 55.30  0.00  31.50   3469.5  *hist_fcst*    
  8 18  91.60 56.50  0.00  33.05   3502.6  *hist_fcst*    
  8 19  91.30 57.10  0.02  33.20   3535.8  *hist_fcst*    
  8 20  90.30 56.90  0.03  32.60   3568.4  *hist_fcst*    
  8 21  88.90 55.30  0.00  31.10   3599.5  *hist_fcst*    
  8 22  87.30 53.20  0.00  29.25   3628.7  *hist_fcst*    
  8 23  84.50 52.80  0.00  27.65   3656.4  *hist_fcst*    
  8 24  84.70 52.30  0.00  27.50   3683.9  *hist_fcst*    
  8 25  86.50 54.30  0.01  29.40   3713.3  *hist_fcst*    
  8 26  86.70 53.20  0.02  28.95   3742.2  *hist_fcst*    
  8 27  86.80 53.20  0.00  29.00   3771.2  *hist_fcst*    
  8 28  87.70 54.70  0.00  30.20   3801.4  *hist_fcst*    
  8 29  87.30 54.60  0.00  29.95   3831.4  *hist_fcst*    
  8 30  84.80 53.40  0.00  28.10   3859.5  *hist_fcst*    
  8 31  81.40 50.90  0.00  25.15   3884.6  *hist_fcst*    
  9  1  80.70 49.30  0.01  24.00   3908.6  *hist_fcst*    
  9  2  82.90 50.10  0.00  25.50   3934.1  *hist_fcst*    
  9  3  84.00 50.50  0.00  26.25   3960.4  *hist_fcst*    
  9  4  82.80 50.80  0.00  25.80   3986.2  *hist_fcst*    
  9  5  82.60 51.50  0.00  26.05   4012.2  *hist_fcst*    
  9  6  83.30 51.80  0.04  26.55   4038.8  *hist_fcst*    
  9  7  81.10 51.30  0.01  25.20   4064.0  *hist_fcst*    
  9  8  81.60 50.70  0.01  25.15   4089.1  *hist_fcst*    
  9  9  82.00 51.20  0.01  25.60   4114.7  *hist_fcst*    
  9 10  82.50 50.10  0.00  25.30   4140.0  *hist_fcst*    
  9 11  81.50 49.00  0.00  24.25   4164.3  *hist_fcst*    
  9 12  83.60 48.80  0.00  25.20   4189.5  *hist_fcst*    
  9 13  87.20 50.30  0.00  27.75   4217.2  *hist_fcst*    
  9 14  85.20 50.40  0.00  26.80   4244.0  *hist_fcst*    
  9 15  81.50 48.90  0.00  24.20   4268.2  *hist_fcst*    
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight
Location: 2017 MWQGV Grandview WA
QA 74% ok - Caution - 26% of data estimated  - show details 
  
This year is about  versus  QA
 20 days behind 2016 ok
 18 days behind 2015 ok
 9 days behind 30-yr normal ok
DateDDsEvent
 5-21-17 854peak pheromone trap catch
 5-26-17 968peak female adult emergence
 5-28-17 1023peak egg laying
 6-7-17 1287peak egg hatch
 7-6-17 2073peak in density large larvae
degree-day graph of orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Knight (1988)