Online Phenology Models and Degree-day Calculator
immaturedamagepupaadult
orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
insect model of Knight (1988)


Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
	Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================ Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Type: insect Model source/other links: Knight (1988) Calculation method: single sine Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default) Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1 Ending date: 9 15 Model validation status: partly validated Region of known use: Pacific Northwest ==============================EVENTS TABLE================================ 1. 850 DDs after biofix: peak pheromone trap catch 2. 950 DDs after biofix: peak female adult emergence 3. 1000 DDs after biofix: peak egg laying 4. 1270 DDs after biofix: peak egg hatch 5. 2070 DDs after biofix: peak in density large larvae ==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================ Weather station: 2017 MWQGV PDTWFO Grandview WA Lat46.2528 Long-119.8939 Elev:833 mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event -- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- ------- 1 1 29.00 22.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 * START * 1 2 26.00 22.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 3 24.00 19.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 4 26.00 12.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 5 19.00 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 6 14.60 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 Vx 1 7 17.00 0.60 0.00 0.00 0.0 Vx Vn 1 8 25.10 17.10 0.00 0.00 0.0 Vx Vn 1 9 30.40 17.40 0.00 0.00 0.0 Vx Vn 1 10 26.40 18.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 Vx Vn 1 11 23.00 16.50 0.00 0.00 0.0 Vx Vn 1 12 17.10 6.10 0.00 0.00 0.0 Vx Vn 1 13 12.10 2.10 0.00 0.00 0.0 Vx Vn 1 14 13.10 4.70 0.00 0.00 0.0 Vx Vn 1 15 14.80 11.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 Vx Vn 1 16 17.30 6.70 0.00 0.00 0.0 Vx Vn 1 17 19.90 10.30 0.00 0.00 0.0 Vx Vn 1 18 29.00 20.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 Vx Vn 1 19 36.20 21.30 0.00 0.00 0.0 Vx Vn 1 20 31.00 22.70 0.00 0.00 0.0 Vx Vn 1 21 35.70 28.40 0.00 0.00 0.0 Vx Vn 1 22 34.20 29.50 0.00 0.00 0.0 Vx Vn 1 23 33.30 30.40 0.00 0.00 0.0 Vx Vn 1 24 30.40 26.30 0.00 0.00 0.0 Vx Vn 1 25 28.00 24.40 0.00 0.00 0.0 Vx Vn 1 26 33.10 27.10 0.00 0.00 0.0 Vx Vn 1 27 33.00 29.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 28 34.00 31.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 29 32.00 28.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 30 30.00 28.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 31 34.00 20.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 2 1 30.00 8.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 2 2 29.00 24.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 2 3 26.00 21.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 2 4 31.00 20.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 2 5 30.00 18.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 2 6 44.00 26.00 0.00 0.53 0.5 2 7 28.00 21.00 0.00 0.00 0.5 2 8 28.00 25.00 0.00 0.00 0.5 2 9 44.00 26.00 0.00 0.53 1.1 2 10 48.00 35.00 0.00 2.33 3.4 2 11 45.00 26.00 0.00 0.80 4.2 2 12 38.00 19.00 0.00 0.00 4.2 2 13 36.00 16.00 0.00 0.00 4.2 2 14 30.00 16.00 0.00 0.00 4.2 2 15 31.00 23.00 0.00 0.00 4.2 2 16 37.00 30.00 0.00 0.00 4.2 2 17 43.00 32.00 0.00 0.37 4.5 2 18 39.00 34.00 0.00 0.00 4.5 2 19 49.00 32.00 0.00 2.46 7.0 2 20 48.00 36.00 0.00 2.44 9.4 2 21 40.00 34.00 0.00 0.00 9.4 2 22 44.00 27.00 0.00 0.54 10.0 2 23 44.00 22.00 0.00 0.48 10.5 2 24 41.00 21.00 0.00 0.00 10.5 2 25 44.00 20.00 0.00 0.46 10.9 2 26 38.00 33.00 0.00 0.00 10.9 2 27 41.00 30.00 0.00 0.00 10.9 2 28 46.00 25.00 0.00 1.06 12.0 3 1 53.00 40.00 0.00 5.62 17.6 3 2 48.00 35.00 0.00 2.33 19.9 3 3 53.00 34.00 0.00 4.38 24.3 3 4 48.00 37.00 0.00 2.57 26.9 3 5 46.00 34.00 0.00 1.44 28.3 3 6 47.00 34.00 0.00 1.83 30.1 3 7 46.00 34.00 0.00 1.44 31.6 3 8 52.00 33.00 0.00 3.81 35.4 3 9 44.00 36.00 0.00 0.81 36.2 3 10 64.00 42.00 0.00 12.00 48.2 3 11 57.00 35.00 0.00 6.37 54.6 3 12 56.00 39.00 0.00 6.79 61.4 3 13 54.00 44.00 0.00 8.00 69.4 3 14 67.00 46.00 0.00 15.50 84.9 3 15 64.00 50.00 0.00 16.00 100.9 3 16 54.00 39.00 0.00 5.81 106.7 3 17 51.00 32.00 0.00 3.28 110.0 3 18 61.00 41.00 0.00 10.00 120.0 3 19 52.00 30.00 0.00 3.50 123.5 3 20 51.00 31.00 0.00 3.18 126.6 3 21 49.00 37.00 0.00 3.02 129.7 3 22 59.00 37.00 0.00 7.74 137.4 3 23 56.00 30.00 0.00 5.19 142.6 3 24 57.00 43.40 0.00 9.20 151.8 Vn 3 25 57.00 42.00 0.00 8.50 160.3 3 26 49.00 38.00 0.00 3.18 163.5 3 27 60.00 39.00 0.00 8.76 172.2 3 28 58.00 38.00 0.00 7.50 179.7 3 29 60.00 44.80 0.00 11.40 191.1 Vn 3 30 60.00 36.00 0.00 7.99 199.1 3 31 62.00 34.00 0.00 8.53 207.6 4 1 66.00 40.00 0.00 12.08 219.7 4 2 58.00 36.00 0.00 7.04 226.8 4 3 56.00 30.00 0.00 5.19 231.9 4 4 63.60 38.30 0.00 10.33 242.3 Hx Hn 4 5 62.00 46.00 0.00 13.00 255.3 4 6 64.00 45.00 0.00 13.50 268.8 4 7 61.00 45.00 0.00 12.00 280.8 4 8 57.00 38.00 0.00 7.01 287.8 4 9 55.00 30.00 0.00 4.76 292.5 4 10 58.00 38.00 0.00 7.50 300.1 4 11 59.00 31.00 0.00 6.64 306.7 4 12 57.00 45.00 0.00 10.00 316.7 4 13 59.00 40.00 0.00 8.60 325.3 4 14 58.00 34.00 0.00 6.66 331.9 4 15 58.00 30.00 0.00 6.06 338.0 4 16 64.00 33.00 0.00 9.27 347.3 4 17 64.00 45.00 0.00 13.50 360.8 4 18 64.00 45.00 0.00 13.50 374.3 4 19 65.00 38.00 0.00 10.93 385.2 4 20 63.00 44.00 0.00 12.50 397.7 4 21 64.00 37.00 0.00 10.16 407.9 4 22 66.00 41.00 0.00 12.50 420.4 4 23 63.00 42.00 0.00 11.50 431.9 4 24 56.00 44.00 0.00 9.00 440.9 4 25 61.00 39.00 0.00 9.26 450.1 4 26 63.00 44.00 0.00 12.50 462.6 4 27 60.00 38.00 0.00 8.48 471.1 4 28 63.00 36.00 0.00 9.43 480.5 4 29 64.00 36.00 0.00 9.91 490.4 4 30 64.00 50.00 0.00 16.00 506.4 5 1 59.00 36.00 0.00 7.51 514.0 5 2 66.00 48.00 0.00 16.00 530.0 5 3 78.00 55.00 0.00 25.50 555.5 5 4 84.00 54.00 0.00 28.00 583.5 5 5 72.00 54.00 0.00 22.00 605.5 5 6 63.00 45.00 0.00 13.00 618.5 5 7 65.00 34.00 0.00 9.95 628.4 5 8 70.00 40.00 0.00 14.08 642.5 5 9 75.00 43.00 0.00 18.00 660.5 5 10 79.00 47.00 0.00 22.00 682.5 5 11 67.00 48.00 0.00 16.50 699.0 5 12 61.00 46.00 0.00 12.50 711.5 5 13 59.00 41.00 0.00 9.00 720.5 5 14 62.00 36.00 0.00 8.95 729.4 5 15 65.00 38.00 0.00 10.93 740.4 5 16 60.00 47.00 0.00 12.50 752.9 5 17 70.00 40.00 0.00 14.08 766.9 5 18 72.00 45.00 0.00 17.50 784.4 5 19 77.00 50.00 0.00 22.50 806.9 5 20 76.00 54.00 0.00 24.00 830.9 5 21 81.00 48.00 0.00 23.50 854.4 peak pheromone trap catch 5 22 84.00 52.00 0.00 27.00 881.4 5 23 92.00 53.00 0.00 31.50 912.9 5 24 69.00 51.00 0.00 19.00 931.9 5 25 68.00 47.00 0.00 16.50 948.4 5 26 78.00 44.00 0.00 20.00 968.4 peak female adult emergence 5 27 84.00 50.00 0.00 26.00 994.4 5 28 88.00 52.00 0.00 29.00 1023.4 peak egg laying 5 29 91.00 56.00 0.00 32.50 1055.9 5 30 90.00 59.00 0.00 33.50 1089.4 5 31 72.00 53.00 0.00 21.50 1110.9 6 1 76.00 54.00 0.00 24.00 1134.9 6 2 80.00 50.00 0.00 24.00 1158.9 6 3 83.00 54.00 0.00 27.50 1186.4 6 4 74.00 55.00 0.00 23.50 1209.9 6 5 75.00 43.00 0.00 18.00 1227.9 6 6 85.00 52.00 0.00 27.50 1255.4 6 7 87.00 58.00 0.00 31.50 1286.9 peak egg hatch 6 8 75.00 56.00 0.00 24.50 1311.4 6 9 69.00 42.00 0.00 14.50 1325.9 6 10 69.00 42.00 0.00 14.50 1340.4 6 11 74.00 42.00 0.00 17.00 1357.4 6 12 77.00 56.00 0.00 25.50 1382.9 6 13 74.00 46.00 0.00 19.00 1401.9 6 14 71.00 44.00 0.00 16.50 1418.4 6 15 68.00 52.00 0.00 19.00 1437.4 6 16 72.00 58.00 0.00 24.00 1461.4 6 17 77.00 45.00 0.00 20.00 1481.4 6 18 86.00 55.00 0.00 29.50 1510.9 6 19 92.00 60.00 0.00 35.00 1545.9 6 20 88.00 62.00 0.00 34.00 1579.9 6 21 83.00 58.00 0.00 29.50 1609.4 6 22 78.00 50.00 0.00 23.00 1632.4 6 23 86.00 50.00 0.00 27.00 1659.4 6 24 90.00 53.00 0.00 30.50 1689.9 6 25 94.00 54.00 0.00 33.00 1722.9 6 26 96.00 69.00 0.00 41.50 1764.4 6 27 85.00 64.00 0.00 33.50 1797.9 6 28 86.00 61.00 0.00 32.50 1830.4 6 29 84.00 58.00 0.00 30.00 1860.4 6 30 89.00 56.00 0.00 31.50 1891.9 7 1 90.00 59.00 0.00 33.50 1925.4 7 2 91.00 58.00 0.00 33.50 1958.9 7 3 88.00 58.00 0.00 32.00 1990.9 7 4 91.00 57.00 0.00 33.00 2023.9 7 5 96.00 59.00 0.00 36.50 2060.4 7 6 99.00 64.00 0.00 40.50 2100.9 peak in density large larvae 7 7 99.00 64.00 0.00 40.50 2141.4 7 8 94.00 57.00 0.00 34.50 2175.9 7 9 90.00 60.00 0.00 34.00 2209.9 7 10 86.00 62.00 0.00 33.00 2242.9 7 11 83.00 55.00 0.00 28.00 2270.9 7 12 89.00 56.00 0.00 31.50 2302.4 7 13 89.00 59.00 0.00 33.00 2335.4 7 14 92.00 55.00 0.00 32.50 2367.9 7 15 92.00 62.00 0.00 36.00 2403.9 7 16 80.00 54.00 0.00 26.00 2429.9 7 17 81.00 51.00 0.00 25.00 2454.9 7 18 88.00 53.00 0.00 29.50 2484.4 7 19 90.00 58.00 0.00 33.00 2517.4 7 20 80.00 63.00 0.00 30.50 2547.9 7 21 84.00 52.00 0.00 27.00 2574.9 7 22 90.00 57.00 0.00 32.50 2607.4 7 23 95.00 62.00 0.00 37.50 2644.9 7 24 86.00 63.00 0.00 33.50 2678.4 7 25 91.00 57.00 0.00 33.00 2711.4 7 26 94.00 61.00 0.00 36.50 2747.9 7 27 91.00 60.00 0.00 34.50 2782.4 7 28 90.00 55.00 0.00 31.50 2813.9 7 29 91.00 56.00 0.00 32.50 2846.4 7 30 92.00 59.00 0.00 34.50 2880.9 7 31 91.00 58.00 0.00 33.50 2914.4 8 1 95.00 58.00 0.00 35.50 2949.9 8 2 94.00 63.00 0.00 37.50 2987.4 8 3 94.00 60.00 0.00 36.00 3023.4 8 4 95.00 61.00 0.00 37.00 3060.4 8 5 90.00 62.00 0.00 35.00 3095.4 8 6 92.00 60.00 0.00 35.00 3130.4 8 7 94.00 62.00 0.00 37.00 3167.4 8 8 96.00 61.00 0.00 37.50 3204.9 8 9 94.00 61.00 0.00 36.50 3241.4 8 10 97.00 61.00 0.00 38.00 3279.4 8 11 96.00 62.00 0.00 38.00 3317.4 8 12 92.00 70.00 0.00 40.00 3357.4 8 13 81.00 62.00 0.00 30.50 3387.9 8 14 76.00 51.00 0.00 22.50 3410.4 8 15 81.00 46.90 0.00 22.95 3433.4 Pn 8 16 88.00 53.00 0.00 29.50 3462.9 8 17 86.00 57.00 0.00 30.50 3493.4 8 18 88.00 53.00 0.00 29.50 3522.9 8 19 80.00 54.00 0.00 26.00 3548.9 8 20 81.00 51.00 0.00 25.00 3573.9 8 21 84.00 54.00 0.00 28.00 3601.9 8 22 88.00 54.00 0.00 30.00 3631.9
DD accumulation on 8-22-17: 3632QA 80% ok - Caution - 20% of data estimated    
  
This year is about  versus  QA
 9 days behind 2016 ok
 19 days behind 2015 ok
 6 days behind 30-yr normal ok
Forecast using: NWS NDFD 7-day Forecast data
  8 23  91.00 64.00  0.00  36.50   3668.4  Partly_Cloudy    
  8 24  84.00 64.00  0.00  33.00   3701.4  Sunny_4%_precip    
  8 25  81.00 52.00  0.00  25.50   3726.9  Sunny    
  8 26  87.00 52.00  0.00  28.50   3755.4  Sunny    
  8 27  92.00 56.00  0.00  33.00   3788.4  Sunny    
  8 28  94.00 59.00  0.00  35.50   3823.9  Sunny    
  8 29  95.00 61.00  0.00  37.00   3860.9  Sunny    
Forecast using: 10 yr Hist Avg MWQGV 2006-2015
  8 30  84.80 53.40  0.00  28.10   3889.0  *hist_fcst*    
  8 31  81.40 50.90  0.00  25.15   3914.1  *hist_fcst*    
  9  1  80.70 49.30  0.01  24.00   3938.1  *hist_fcst*    
  9  2  82.90 50.10  0.00  25.50   3963.6  *hist_fcst*    
  9  3  84.00 50.50  0.00  26.25   3989.9  *hist_fcst*    
  9  4  82.80 50.80  0.00  25.80   4015.7  *hist_fcst*    
  9  5  82.60 51.50  0.00  26.05   4041.7  *hist_fcst*    
  9  6  83.30 51.80  0.04  26.55   4068.3  *hist_fcst*    
  9  7  81.10 51.30  0.01  25.20   4093.5  *hist_fcst*    
  9  8  81.60 50.70  0.01  25.15   4118.6  *hist_fcst*    
  9  9  82.00 51.20  0.01  25.60   4144.2  *hist_fcst*    
  9 10  82.50 50.10  0.00  25.30   4169.5  *hist_fcst*    
  9 11  81.50 49.00  0.00  24.25   4193.8  *hist_fcst*    
  9 12  83.60 48.80  0.00  25.20   4219.0  *hist_fcst*    
  9 13  87.20 50.30  0.00  27.75   4246.7  *hist_fcst*    
  9 14  85.20 50.40  0.00  26.80   4273.5  *hist_fcst*    
  9 15  81.50 48.90  0.00  24.20   4297.7  *hist_fcst*    
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight
Location: 2017 MWQGV Grandview WA
DD accumulation on 8-22-17: 3632QA 80% ok - Caution - 20% of data estimated  - show details 
  
This year is about  versus  QA
 9 days behind 2016 ok
 19 days behind 2015 ok
 6 days behind 30-yr normal ok
DateDDsEvent
 5-21-17 854peak pheromone trap catch
 5-26-17 968peak female adult emergence
 5-28-17 1023peak egg laying
 6-7-17 1287peak egg hatch
 7-6-17 2101peak in density large larvae
degree-day graph of orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Knight (1988)