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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Knight 1988
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit
Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default)
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date
No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1
Ending date: 9 15
Model validation status: partly validated
Region of known use: Pacific Northwest
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 850 DDs after biofix: Peak pheromone trap catch
2. 950 DDs after biofix: Peak female adult emergence
3. 1000 DDs after biofix: Peak egg laying
4. 1270 DDs after biofix: Peak egg hatch
5. 2070 DDs after biofix: Peak in density large larvae
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2016 MWQGV PDTWFO Grandview WA Lat46.2528 Long-119.8939 Elev:833
mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
1 1 24.00 9.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 * START *
1 2 21.00 16.00 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 3 20.00 10.00 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 4 26.00 18.00 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 5 28.00 17.00 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 6 34.00 28.00 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 7 36.00 32.00 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 8 36.00 32.00 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 9 36.00 33.00 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 10 36.00 32.00 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 11 37.00 31.00 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 12 34.00 29.00 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 13 34.00 30.00 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 14 45.00 28.00 0.00 0.84 0.8
1 15 42.00 29.00 0.00 0.12 1.0
1 16 36.00 32.00 0.00 0.00 1.0
1 17 35.00 32.00 0.00 0.00 1.0
1 18 35.00 33.00 0.00 0.00 1.0
1 19 34.00 31.00 0.00 0.00 1.0
1 20 46.00 30.00 0.00 1.23 2.2
1 21 40.00 36.00 0.00 0.00 2.2
1 22 55.00 36.00 0.00 5.62 7.8
1 23 49.00 34.00 0.00 2.64 10.5
1 24 50.00 30.00 0.00 2.70 13.2
1 25 45.00 27.00 0.00 0.82 14.0
1 26 39.00 31.00 0.00 0.00 14.0
1 27 42.00 35.00 0.00 0.16 14.1
1 28 50.00 35.00 0.00 3.19 17.3
1 29 50.00 35.00 0.00 3.19 20.5
1 30 48.00 30.00 0.00 1.94 22.4
1 31 45.00 24.00 0.00 0.76 23.2
2 1 46.00 23.00 0.00 1.01 24.2
2 2 42.00 24.00 0.00 0.10 24.3
2 3 40.00 26.00 0.00 0.00 24.3
2 4 44.00 28.00 0.00 0.56 24.9
2 5 49.00 30.00 0.00 2.31 27.2
2 6 48.00 32.00 0.00 2.07 29.2
2 7 50.00 27.00 0.00 2.50 31.7
2 8 50.00 28.00 0.00 2.56 34.3
2 9 51.00 28.00 0.00 2.94 37.2
2 10 48.00 30.00 0.00 1.94 39.2
2 11 49.00 38.00 0.00 3.18 42.4
2 12 50.00 41.00 0.00 4.50 46.9
2 13 50.00 34.00 0.00 3.07 49.9
2 14 62.00 41.00 0.00 10.50 60.4
2 15 64.00 49.00 0.00 15.50 75.9
2 16 61.00 44.00 0.00 11.50 87.4
2 17 59.00 44.00 0.00 10.50 97.9
2 18 52.00 42.00 0.00 6.00 103.9
2 19 55.00 41.00 0.00 7.00 110.9
2 20 50.00 32.00 0.00 2.86 113.8
2 21 48.00 27.00 0.00 1.78 115.6
2 22 52.00 28.00 0.00 3.33 118.9
2 23 52.00 26.00 0.00 3.19 122.1
2 24 53.00 32.00 0.00 4.13 126.2
2 25 55.00 29.00 0.00 4.65 130.9
2 26 55.00 31.00 0.00 4.87 135.7
2 27 62.00 39.00 0.00 9.75 145.5
2 28 57.00 38.00 0.00 7.01 152.5
2 29 55.00 35.00 0.00 5.44 158.0
3 1 51.00 40.00 0.00 4.63 162.6
3 2 55.00 42.00 0.00 7.50 170.1
3 3 61.00 40.00 0.00 9.59 179.7
3 4 62.00 33.00 0.00 8.34 188.0
3 5 63.00 43.00 0.00 12.00 200.0
3 6 58.00 44.00 0.00 10.00 210.0
3 7 56.00 37.00 0.00 6.30 216.3
3 8 50.00 29.00 0.00 2.63 218.9
3 9 47.00 38.00 0.00 2.26 221.2
3 10 61.00 39.00 0.00 9.26 230.5
3 11 49.00 33.00 0.00 2.55 233.0
3 12 54.00 39.00 0.00 5.81 238.8
3 13 54.00 38.00 0.00 5.56 244.4
3 14 54.00 36.00 0.00 5.15 249.5
3 15 52.00 32.00 0.00 3.70 253.2
3 16 56.00 34.00 0.00 5.74 259.0
3 17 52.00 33.00 0.00 3.81 262.8
3 18 54.00 26.00 0.00 3.97 266.7
3 19 60.00 36.00 0.00 7.99 274.7
3 20 57.00 42.00 0.00 8.50 283.2
3 21 60.00 40.00 0.00 9.10 292.3
3 22 62.00 41.00 0.00 10.50 302.8
3 23 58.00 36.00 0.00 7.04 309.9
3 24 57.00 42.00 0.00 8.50 318.4
3 25 58.00 32.00 0.00 6.34 324.7
3 26 58.00 34.00 0.00 6.66 331.4
3 27 57.00 37.00 0.00 6.78 338.1
3 28 57.00 28.00 0.00 5.39 343.5
3 29 66.00 38.00 0.00 11.42 354.9
3 30 68.00 37.00 0.00 12.12 367.1
3 31 74.00 37.00 0.00 15.06 382.1
4 1 75.00 41.00 0.00 17.00 399.1
4 2 76.00 44.00 0.00 19.00 418.1
4 3 73.00 40.00 0.00 15.57 433.7
4 4 61.00 46.00 0.00 12.50 446.2
4 5 62.00 39.00 0.00 9.75 456.0
4 6 72.00 36.00 0.00 13.80 469.8
4 7 78.00 40.00 0.00 18.07 487.8
4 8 80.00 46.00 0.00 22.00 509.8
4 9 79.00 49.00 0.00 23.00 532.8
4 10 74.00 45.00 0.00 18.50 551.3
4 11 76.00 44.00 0.00 19.00 570.3
4 12 66.00 51.00 0.00 17.50 587.8
4 13 60.00 48.00 0.00 13.00 600.8
4 14 57.00 38.00 0.00 7.01 607.8
4 15 64.00 36.00 0.00 9.91 617.8
4 16 67.00 39.00 0.00 12.23 630.0
4 17 74.00 40.00 0.00 16.07 646.1
4 18 80.00 44.00 0.00 21.00 667.1
4 19 82.00 46.00 0.00 23.00 690.1
4 20 84.00 46.00 0.00 24.00 714.1
4 21 77.00 57.00 0.00 26.00 740.1
4 22 74.00 52.00 0.00 22.00 762.1
4 23 71.00 53.00 0.00 21.00 783.1
4 24 66.00 48.00 0.00 16.00 799.1
4 25 65.00 39.00 0.00 11.24 810.3
4 26 66.00 36.00 0.00 10.88 821.2
4 27 63.00 47.00 0.00 14.00 835.2
4 28 71.00 45.00 0.00 17.00 852.2 Peak pheromone trap catch
4 29 64.00 47.00 0.00 14.50 866.7
4 30 72.00 49.00 0.00 19.50 886.2
5 1 76.00 45.00 0.00 19.50 905.7
5 2 83.00 46.00 0.00 23.50 929.2
5 3 85.00 52.00 0.00 27.50 956.7 Peak female adult emergence
5 4 77.00 59.00 0.00 27.00 983.7
5 5 72.00 55.00 0.00 22.50 1006.2 Peak egg laying
5 6 82.00 57.00 0.00 28.50 1034.7
5 7 85.00 57.00 0.00 30.00 1064.7
5 8 78.00 55.00 0.00 25.50 1090.2
5 9 69.00 46.00 0.00 16.50 1106.7
5 10 72.00 44.00 0.00 17.00 1123.7
5 11 82.00 47.00 0.00 23.50 1147.2
5 12 85.00 49.00 0.00 26.00 1173.2
5 13 82.00 54.00 0.00 27.00 1200.2
5 14 69.00 53.00 0.00 20.00 1220.2
5 15 63.00 53.00 0.00 17.00 1237.2
5 16 74.00 52.00 0.00 22.00 1259.2
5 17 79.00 48.00 0.00 22.50 1281.7 Peak egg hatch
5 18 81.00 52.00 0.00 25.50 1307.2
5 19 66.00 48.00 0.00 16.00 1323.2
5 20 65.00 41.00 0.00 12.00 1335.2
5 21 63.00 51.00 0.00 16.00 1351.2
5 22 69.00 52.00 0.00 19.50 1370.7
5 23 71.00 46.00 0.00 17.50 1388.2
5 24 75.00 44.00 0.00 18.50 1406.7
5 25 78.00 49.00 0.00 22.50 1429.2
5 26 74.00 48.00 0.00 20.00 1449.2
5 27 68.00 45.00 0.00 15.50 1464.7
5 28 72.00 42.00 0.00 16.00 1480.7
5 29 76.00 47.00 0.00 20.50 1501.2
5 30 75.00 45.00 0.00 19.00 1520.2
5 31 80.00 46.00 0.00 22.00 1542.2
6 1 84.00 55.00 0.00 28.50 1570.7
6 2 78.00 63.00 0.00 29.50 1600.2
6 3 84.00 56.00 0.00 29.00 1629.2
6 4 94.00 57.00 0.00 34.50 1663.7
6 5 96.00 59.00 0.00 36.50 1700.2
6 6 100.00 63.00 0.00 40.50 1740.7
6 7 95.00 64.00 0.00 38.50 1779.2
6 8 81.00 62.00 0.00 30.50 1809.7
6 9 75.00 50.00 0.00 21.50 1831.2
6 10 70.00 52.00 0.00 20.00 1851.2
6 11 73.00 45.00 0.00 18.00 1869.2
6 12 78.00 45.00 0.00 20.50 1889.7
6 13 73.00 50.00 0.00 20.50 1910.2
6 14 65.00 45.00 0.00 14.00 1924.2
6 15 66.00 39.00 0.00 11.73 1935.9
6 16 68.00 50.00 0.00 18.00 1953.9
6 17 75.00 42.00 0.00 17.50 1971.4
6 18 67.00 51.00 0.00 18.00 1989.4
6 19 73.00 40.00 0.00 15.57 2005.0
6 20 82.00 51.00 0.00 25.50 2030.5
6 21 81.40 58.00 0.00 28.70 2059.2 Vx
6 22 84.00 52.00 0.00 27.00 2086.2 Peak in density large larvae
6 23 78.00 63.00 0.00 29.50 2115.7
6 24 73.00 54.00 0.00 22.50 2138.2
6 25 78.00 48.00 0.00 22.00 2160.2
6 26 88.00 53.00 0.00 29.50 2189.7
6 27 93.00 59.00 0.00 35.00 2224.7
6 28 95.00 62.00 0.00 37.50 2262.2
6 29 95.00 62.00 0.00 37.50 2299.7
6 30 92.00 59.00 0.00 34.50 2334.2
7 1 89.00 56.00 0.00 31.50 2365.7
7 2 89.00 62.00 0.00 34.50 2400.2
7 3 83.00 59.00 0.00 30.00 2430.2
7 4 80.00 52.00 0.00 25.00 2455.2
7 5 77.00 50.00 0.00 22.50 2477.7
7 6 80.00 50.00 0.00 24.00 2501.7
7 7 80.00 58.00 0.00 28.00 2529.7
7 8 80.00 59.00 0.00 28.50 2558.2
7 9 77.00 57.00 0.00 26.00 2584.2
7 10 73.00 56.00 0.00 23.50 2607.7
7 11 80.00 51.00 0.00 24.50 2632.2
7 12 80.00 58.00 0.00 28.00 2660.2
7 13 84.00 54.00 0.00 28.00 2688.2
7 14 89.00 54.00 0.00 30.50 2718.7
7 15 83.00 57.00 0.00 29.00 2747.7
7 16 84.00 54.00 0.00 28.00 2775.7
7 17 84.00 60.00 0.00 31.00 2806.7
7 18 78.00 62.00 0.00 29.00 2835.7
7 19 78.00 57.00 0.00 26.50 2862.2
7 20 86.00 55.00 0.00 29.50 2891.7
7 21 91.00 56.00 0.00 32.50 2924.2
7 22 82.00 64.00 0.00 32.00 2956.2
7 23 85.00 53.00 0.00 28.00 2984.2
7 24 87.00 55.00 0.00 30.00 3014.2
7 25 94.00 58.00 0.00 35.00 3049.2
7 26 96.00 64.00 0.00 39.00 3088.2
7 27 92.00 64.00 0.00 37.00 3125.2
7 28 95.00 62.00 0.00 37.50 3162.7
7 29 98.00 63.00 0.00 39.50 3202.2
7 30 94.00 62.00 0.00 37.00 3239.2
7 31 84.00 55.00 0.00 28.50 3267.7
8 1 84.00 55.00 0.00 28.50 3296.2
8 2 77.00 58.00 0.00 26.50 3322.7
8 3 81.00 50.00 0.00 24.50 3347.2
8 4 88.00 54.00 0.00 30.00 3377.2
8 5 91.00 56.00 0.00 32.50 3409.7
8 6 85.00 54.00 0.00 28.50 3438.2
8 7 80.00 53.00 0.00 25.50 3463.7
8 8 74.00 49.00 0.00 20.50 3484.2
8 9 75.00 56.00 0.00 24.50 3508.7
8 10 81.00 52.00 0.00 25.50 3534.2
8 11 86.00 55.00 0.00 29.50 3563.7
8 12 90.00 57.00 0.00 32.50 3596.2
8 13 93.00 59.00 0.00 35.00 3631.2
8 14 94.00 60.00 0.00 36.00 3667.2
8 15 92.00 57.00 0.00 33.50 3700.7
8 16 91.00 59.00 0.00 34.00 3734.7
8 17 92.00 59.00 0.00 34.50 3769.2
8 18 92.00 65.00 0.00 37.50 3806.7
8 19 86.00 63.00 0.00 33.50 3840.2
8 20 90.00 53.00 0.00 30.50 3870.7
8 21 92.00 57.00 0.00 33.50 3904.2
8 22 78.00 52.00 0.00 24.00 3928.2
8 23 79.00 49.00 0.00 23.00 3951.2
8 24 84.00 55.00 0.00 28.50 3979.7
8 25 85.00 55.00 0.00 29.00 4008.7
8 26 87.00 53.00 0.00 29.00 4037.7
8 27 86.00 58.00 0.00 31.00 4068.7
8 28 85.00 58.00 0.00 30.50 4099.2
8 29 89.00 55.00 0.00 31.00 4130.2
8 30 78.00 57.00 0.00 26.50 4156.7
8 31 82.00 49.00 0.00 24.50 4181.2
9 1 72.00 55.00 0.00 22.50 4203.7
9 2 73.00 50.00 0.00 20.50 4224.2
9 3 71.00 44.00 0.00 16.50 4240.7
9 4 74.00 44.00 0.00 18.00 4258.7
9 5 73.00 47.00 0.00 19.00 4277.7
9 6 69.00 55.00 0.00 21.00 4298.7
9 7 75.00 50.00 0.00 21.50 4320.2
9 8 77.00 51.00 0.00 23.00 4343.2
9 9 74.00 46.00 0.00 19.00 4362.2
9 10 87.00 46.00 0.00 25.50 4387.7
9 11 74.00 52.00 0.00 22.00 4409.7
9 12 71.00 54.00 0.00 21.50 4431.2
9 13 72.00 43.00 0.00 16.50 4447.7
9 14 78.00 40.00 0.00 18.07 4465.7
9 15 80.00 47.00 0.00 22.50 4488.2
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 MWQGV PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight 1988Location: 2016 MWQGV Grandview WA Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME | Date | DDs | Event |
| 4-28-16 | 852 | Peak pheromone trap catch |
| 5-3-16 | 957 | Peak female adult emergence |
| 5-5-16 | 1006 | Peak egg laying |
| 5-17-16 | 1282 | Peak egg hatch |
| 6-22-16 | 2086 | Peak in density large larvae |
![degree-day graph of orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Knight 1988](/cgi-bin/ddplotj.pl?1013221)
