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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Knight 1988
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit
Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default)
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date
No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1
Ending date: 9 15
Model validation status: partly validated
Region of known use: Pacific Northwest
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 850 DDs after biofix: Peak pheromone trap catch
2. 950 DDs after biofix: Peak female adult emergence
3. 1000 DDs after biofix: Peak egg laying
4. 1270 DDs after biofix: Peak egg hatch
5. 2070 DDs after biofix: Peak in density large larvae
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2021 KVUO METAR Vancouver Pearson Fld WA Lat:45.6203 Long:-122.6564 Elev:26
mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
1 1 51.80 46.00 0.19 7.90 7.9 * START *
1 2 52.00 48.20 1.11 9.10 17.0
1 3 53.60 42.80 0.22 7.20 24.2
1 4 52.00 46.00 0.61 8.00 32.2
1 5 50.00 44.10 0.13 6.05 38.2
1 6 51.80 46.00 0.73 7.90 46.1
1 7 52.00 44.60 0.01 7.30 53.4
1 8 52.00 32.00 0.18 3.70 57.1
1 9 48.20 32.00 0.08 2.14 59.3
1 10 46.40 42.10 0.05 3.25 62.5
1 11 46.90 44.10 0.90 4.50 67.0
1 12 61.00 44.60 1.68 11.80 78.8
1 13 61.00 39.90 1.24 9.56 88.4
1 14 55.40 35.60 0.10 5.73 94.1
1 15 50.00 39.00 0.08 3.87 98.0
1 16 50.00 41.00 0.03 4.50 102.5
1 17 51.80 39.00 0.01 4.74 107.2
1 18 53.60 32.00 0.00 4.39 111.6
1 19 52.00 30.00 0.00 3.50 115.1
1 20 37.90 28.00 0.11 0.00 115.1
1 21 46.90 39.90 0.03 2.59 117.7
1 22 52.00 28.90 0.00 3.41 121.1
1 23 46.40 26.10 0.00 1.22 122.3
1 24 41.00 37.90 0.38 0.00 122.3
1 25 44.10 33.10 0.01 0.72 123.1
1 26 42.80 35.10 0.21 0.38 123.4
1 27 45.00 37.40 0.15 1.31 124.7
1 28 46.40 39.20 0.01 2.19 126.9
1 29 48.20 39.00 0.12 3.00 129.9
1 30 46.40 42.10 0.17 3.25 133.2
1 31 51.80 44.10 0.24 6.95 140.1
2 1 51.80 46.00 0.45 7.90 148.0
2 2 48.90 41.00 0.28 3.95 152.0
2 3 48.20 39.00 0.12 3.00 155.0
2 4 46.90 41.00 0.05 2.95 158.0
2 5 53.60 44.60 0.04 8.10 166.1
2 6 48.20 33.10 0.12 2.23 168.3
2 7 50.00 39.00 0.43 3.87 172.2
2 8 46.90 33.80 0.00 1.77 173.9
2 9 46.40 28.00 0.00 1.28 175.2
2 10 46.90 30.00 0.00 1.54 176.7
2 11 39.90 28.90 0.06 0.00 176.7
2 12 30.90 24.80 0.92 0.00 176.7
2 13 30.20 24.80 0.08 0.00 176.7
2 14 33.80 28.00 0.65 0.00 176.7
2 15 48.90 30.20 0.03 2.29 179.0
2 16 48.90 35.60 0.02 2.78 181.8
2 17 50.00 33.10 0.01 2.97 184.8
2 18 42.10 35.10 0.24 0.19 185.0
2 19 50.00 37.00 0.01 3.47 188.4
2 20 52.00 37.40 0.03 4.48 192.9
2 21 51.80 44.10 0.00 6.95 199.9
2 22 53.60 42.80 0.18 7.20 207.1
2 23 50.00 35.60 0.03 3.26 210.3
2 24 48.20 30.20 0.06 2.02 212.4
2 25 51.10 39.20 0.18 4.45 216.8
2 26 48.20 41.00 0.22 3.60 220.4
2 27 52.00 35.60 0.06 4.16 224.6
2 28 57.90 44.10 0.00 10.00 234.6
3 1 60.10 35.10 0.00 7.85 242.4
3 2 54.00 33.80 0.00 4.80 247.2
3 3 61.00 30.20 0.00 7.42 254.6 Px
3 4 57.30 40.40 0.00 7.90 262.5 Px Pn
3 5 51.80 44.10 0.10 6.95 269.5
3 6 53.60 37.40 0.11 5.24 274.7
3 7 50.00 39.00 0.04 3.87 278.6
3 8 53.60 30.20 0.00 4.19 282.8
3 9 54.00 41.00 0.02 6.50 289.3
3 10 57.90 41.00 0.00 8.45 297.7
3 11 60.80 33.10 0.00 7.80 305.5
3 12 62.60 30.20 0.00 8.15 313.7
3 13 64.00 30.00 0.00 8.75 322.4
3 14 51.80 41.00 0.16 5.40 327.8
3 15 46.90 28.00 0.00 1.45 329.3
3 16 54.00 26.60 0.00 4.02 333.3
3 17 62.60 30.20 0.00 8.15 341.4
3 18 54.00 37.00 0.14 5.34 346.8
3 19 55.40 46.00 0.04 9.70 356.5
3 20 53.60 42.10 0.14 6.85 363.3
3 21 50.00 42.80 0.18 5.40 368.7
3 22 54.00 37.90 0.16 5.54 374.3
3 23 57.90 32.00 0.00 6.29 380.6
3 24 50.00 42.10 0.14 5.05 385.6
3 25 55.90 39.20 0.04 6.80 392.4
3 26 57.20 44.10 0.00 9.65 402.1
3 27 64.40 37.40 0.00 10.47 412.5
3 28 52.00 39.00 0.14 4.84 417.4
3 29 54.00 34.00 0.05 4.83 422.2
3 30 54.00 28.00 0.00 4.14 426.3
3 31 70.00 30.00 0.00 11.52 437.8
4 1 66.90 46.00 0.00 15.45 453.3
4 2 64.40 33.80 0.00 9.62 462.9
4 3 70.00 39.00 0.00 13.72 476.6
4 4 59.00 42.80 0.00 9.90 486.5
4 5 61.00 32.00 0.00 7.70 494.2
4 6 64.40 33.10 0.00 9.48 503.7
4 7 52.00 41.00 0.01 5.50 509.2
4 8 55.90 41.00 0.04 7.45 516.7
4 9 60.10 30.20 0.02 7.02 523.7
4 10 53.60 39.90 0.06 5.88 529.6
4 11 60.10 28.00 0.00 6.73 536.3
4 12 64.90 30.00 0.00 9.16 545.5
4 13 66.20 32.00 0.00 10.12 555.6
4 14 70.00 37.00 0.00 13.10 568.7
4 15 75.20 39.00 0.00 16.30 585.0
4 16 79.00 39.20 0.00 18.26 603.2
4 17 82.90 41.00 0.00 20.95 624.2
4 18 82.90 42.10 0.00 21.50 645.7
4 19 73.40 43.00 0.00 17.20 662.9
4 20 73.90 39.00 0.00 15.65 678.5
4 21 77.00 41.00 0.00 18.00 696.5
4 22 66.20 41.00 0.00 12.60 709.1
4 23 62.60 46.40 0.00 13.50 722.6
4 24 55.40 48.00 0.17 10.70 733.3
4 25 60.80 48.00 0.02 13.40 746.7
4 26 59.00 46.90 0.00 11.95 758.7
4 27 66.90 39.20 0.00 12.25 770.9
4 28 73.00 42.10 0.00 16.55 787.5
4 29 79.00 44.60 0.00 20.80 808.3
4 30 70.00 48.00 0.05 18.00 826.3
5 1 62.60 51.10 0.00 15.85 842.1
5 2 66.90 50.00 0.00 17.45 859.6 Peak pheromone trap catch
5 3 64.40 48.20 0.08 15.30 874.9
5 4 69.80 52.00 0.00 19.90 894.8
5 5 82.40 42.80 0.00 21.60 916.4
5 6 66.90 50.00 0.02 17.45 933.8
5 7 61.00 42.80 0.01 10.90 944.7
5 8 61.00 37.40 0.00 8.81 953.5 Peak female adult emergence
5 9 66.20 51.80 0.00 18.00 971.5
5 10 71.60 48.00 0.00 18.80 990.3
5 11 75.20 46.40 0.00 19.80 1010.1 Peak egg laying
5 12 79.00 48.00 0.00 22.50 1032.6
5 13 77.00 51.10 0.00 23.05 1055.7
5 14 80.60 55.00 0.00 26.80 1082.5
5 15 80.60 48.00 0.00 23.30 1105.8
5 16 82.40 48.20 0.00 24.30 1130.1
5 17 66.90 48.20 0.00 16.55 1146.6
5 18 62.10 48.00 0.22 14.05 1160.7
5 19 61.00 39.20 0.00 9.32 1170.0
5 20 62.10 41.00 0.02 10.55 1180.6
5 21 66.90 44.60 0.00 14.75 1195.3
5 22 68.00 48.20 0.00 17.10 1212.4
5 23 64.90 50.00 0.00 16.45 1228.9
5 24 62.60 50.00 0.33 15.30 1244.2
5 25 61.00 54.00 0.22 16.50 1260.7
5 26 72.00 46.00 0.07 18.00 1278.7 Peak egg hatch
5 27 64.90 51.80 0.07 17.35 1296.0
5 28 69.80 51.80 0.00 19.80 1315.8
5 29 82.00 46.00 0.00 23.00 1338.8
5 30 82.90 51.10 0.00 26.00 1364.8
5 31 88.00 55.40 0.00 30.70 1395.5
6 1 95.00 59.00 0.00 36.00 1431.5
6 2 90.00 62.10 0.00 35.05 1466.6
6 3 82.40 57.00 0.00 28.70 1495.3
6 4 78.10 53.10 0.00 24.60 1519.9
6 5 69.10 51.80 0.00 19.45 1539.3
6 6 62.60 48.00 0.03 14.30 1553.6
6 7 66.90 48.90 0.10 16.90 1570.5
6 8 66.90 48.90 0.01 16.90 1587.4
6 9 70.00 48.90 0.00 18.45 1605.9
6 10 68.00 53.10 0.00 19.55 1625.4
6 11 64.40 55.40 0.08 18.90 1644.3
6 12 79.00 57.20 0.43 27.10 1671.4
6 13 66.90 61.00 0.57 22.95 1694.4
6 14 71.60 57.90 0.32 23.75 1718.1
6 15 71.60 52.00 0.03 20.80 1738.9
6 16 79.00 48.20 0.00 22.60 1761.5
6 17 84.00 51.10 0.00 26.55 1788.1
6 18 80.10 57.00 0.00 27.55 1815.6
6 19 82.40 55.00 0.00 27.70 1843.3
6 20 91.40 59.00 0.00 34.20 1877.5
6 21 95.00 62.10 0.00 37.55 1915.1
6 22 84.20 62.10 0.00 32.15 1947.2
6 23 82.40 57.20 0.00 28.80 1976.0
6 24 88.00 55.40 0.00 30.70 2006.7
6 25 93.20 62.60 0.00 36.90 2043.6
6 26 108.00 66.90 0.00 46.45 2090.1 Peak in density large larvae
6 27 111.90 69.10 0.00 49.50 2139.6
6 28 115.00 69.10 0.00 51.05 2190.6
6 29 91.90 64.00 0.00 36.95 2227.6
6 30 77.00 62.60 0.00 28.80 2256.4
7 1 73.40 64.00 0.00 27.70 2284.1
7 2 84.90 62.10 0.00 32.50 2316.6
7 3 86.00 60.80 0.00 32.40 2349.0
7 4 84.90 57.00 0.00 29.95 2378.9
7 5 84.90 59.00 0.00 30.95 2409.9
7 6 88.00 59.00 0.00 32.50 2442.4
7 7 73.90 59.00 0.00 25.45 2467.8
7 8 78.80 57.00 0.00 26.90 2494.7
7 9 87.80 55.00 0.00 30.40 2525.1
7 10 86.00 59.00 0.00 31.50 2556.6
7 11 84.90 57.00 0.00 29.95 2586.6
7 12 84.90 57.00 0.00 29.95 2616.5
7 13 84.20 57.00 0.00 29.60 2646.1
7 14 81.00 57.20 0.00 28.10 2674.2
7 15 78.80 57.20 0.00 27.00 2701.2
7 16 77.00 57.20 0.00 26.10 2727.3
7 17 80.60 60.10 0.00 29.35 2756.7
7 18 86.00 57.20 0.00 30.60 2787.3
7 19 87.80 60.10 0.00 32.95 2820.2
7 20 78.80 60.10 0.00 28.45 2848.7
7 21 75.00 51.80 0.00 22.40 2871.1
7 22 81.00 55.00 0.00 27.00 2898.1
7 23 84.90 55.00 0.00 28.95 2927.0
7 24 90.00 62.60 0.00 35.30 2962.3
7 25 89.10 62.10 0.00 34.60 2996.9
7 26 87.80 60.10 0.00 32.95 3029.9
7 27 86.00 62.10 0.00 33.05 3062.9
7 28 93.20 60.10 0.00 35.65 3098.6
7 29 96.80 64.00 0.00 39.40 3138.0
7 30 93.20 68.00 0.00 39.60 3177.6
7 31 82.40 69.10 0.00 34.75 3212.3
8 1 88.00 62.10 0.00 34.05 3246.4
8 2 90.00 60.10 0.00 34.05 3280.4
8 3 88.00 62.60 0.00 34.30 3314.7
8 4 93.90 60.80 0.00 36.35 3351.1
8 5 82.90 64.00 0.00 32.45 3383.5
8 6 82.40 64.40 0.02 32.40 3415.9
8 7 80.60 59.00 0.00 28.80 3444.7
8 8 75.90 55.90 0.00 24.90 3469.6
8 9 84.90 59.00 0.00 30.95 3500.6
8 10 91.90 64.40 0.00 37.15 3537.7
8 11 100.90 66.00 0.00 42.45 3580.2
8 12 102.90 66.20 0.00 43.55 3623.7
8 13 95.00 69.10 0.00 41.05 3664.8
8 14 91.90 66.00 0.00 37.95 3702.7
8 15 93.20 64.00 0.00 37.60 3740.3
8 16 84.20 60.80 0.00 31.50 3771.8
8 17 72.00 57.00 0.00 23.50 3795.3
8 18 81.00 57.20 0.00 28.10 3823.4
8 19 82.00 57.00 0.00 28.50 3851.9
8 20 73.40 60.10 0.00 25.75 3877.7
8 21 69.80 60.80 0.00 24.30 3902.0
8 22 78.80 58.20 0.00 27.50 3929.5 Px Pn
8 23 73.90 57.00 0.00 24.45 3953.9
8 24 86.00 51.10 0.00 27.55 3981.5
8 25 80.60 51.10 0.00 24.85 4006.3
8 26 75.90 59.00 0.00 26.45 4032.8
8 27 73.00 59.00 0.00 25.00 4057.8
8 28 86.00 53.10 0.00 28.55 4086.3
8 29 87.10 59.00 0.00 32.05 4118.4
8 30 70.00 51.10 0.00 19.55 4137.9
8 31 68.00 48.20 0.00 17.10 4155.0
9 1 78.80 46.00 0.00 21.40 4176.4
9 2 84.90 48.00 0.00 25.45 4201.9
9 3 82.40 50.00 0.00 25.20 4227.1
9 4 88.00 51.10 0.00 28.55 4255.6
9 5 86.00 57.20 0.00 30.60 4286.2
9 6 82.90 60.80 0.00 30.85 4317.1
9 7 87.80 55.00 0.00 30.40 4347.5
9 8 88.00 59.00 0.00 32.50 4380.0
9 9 84.90 57.00 0.00 29.95 4409.9
9 10 69.80 60.80 0.00 24.30 4434.2
9 11 80.60 50.00 0.00 24.30 4458.5
9 12 75.20 59.00 0.00 26.10 4484.6
9 13 73.90 46.00 0.00 18.95 4503.6
9 14 82.40 48.00 0.00 24.20 4527.8
9 15 71.60 54.00 0.00 21.80 4549.6
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 KVUO PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight 1988Location: 2021 KVUO Vancouver Pearson Fld Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME | Date | DDs | Event |
| 5-2-21 | 860 | Peak pheromone trap catch |
| 5-8-21 | 954 | Peak female adult emergence |
| 5-11-21 | 1010 | Peak egg laying |
| 5-26-21 | 1279 | Peak egg hatch |
| 6-26-21 | 2090 | Peak in density large larvae |
![degree-day graph of orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Knight 1988](/cgi-bin/ddplotj.pl?2024891)
