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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Knight 1988
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit
Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default)
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date
No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1
Ending date: 9 15
Model validation status: partly validated
Region of known use: Pacific Northwest
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 850 DDs after biofix: Peak pheromone trap catch
2. 950 DDs after biofix: Peak female adult emergence
3. 1000 DDs after biofix: Peak egg laying
4. 1270 DDs after biofix: Peak egg hatch
5. 2070 DDs after biofix: Peak in density large larvae
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2020 KVUO METAR Vancouver Pearson Fld WA Lat:45.6203 Long:-122.6564 Elev:26
mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
1 1 57.20 46.40 0.11 10.80 10.8 * START *
1 2 53.60 42.80 0.05 7.20 18.0
1 3 57.20 46.40 0.24 10.80 28.8
1 4 48.90 41.00 0.06 3.95 32.8
1 5 48.90 42.80 0.16 4.85 37.6
1 6 52.00 44.60 0.30 7.30 44.9
1 7 57.20 46.40 0.12 10.80 55.7
1 8 48.20 33.80 0.19 2.29 58.0
1 9 42.80 33.80 0.01 0.35 58.3
1 10 48.90 41.00 0.44 3.95 62.3
1 11 46.90 42.10 0.19 3.50 65.8
1 12 46.90 39.00 0.21 2.39 68.2
1 13 39.90 37.40 0.19 0.00 68.2
1 14 41.00 33.80 0.04 0.00 68.2
1 15 41.00 33.10 0.29 0.00 68.2
1 16 43.00 30.20 0.14 0.34 68.5
1 17 43.00 32.00 0.28 0.37 68.9
1 18 42.80 37.40 0.36 0.46 69.3
1 19 52.00 41.00 0.02 5.50 74.8
1 20 46.90 41.00 0.09 2.95 77.8
1 21 51.80 42.10 0.12 5.95 83.7
1 22 48.90 44.60 0.07 5.75 89.5
1 23 50.00 44.60 1.15 6.30 95.8
1 24 55.90 46.00 0.12 9.95 105.7
1 25 57.90 46.00 0.16 10.95 116.7
1 26 54.00 45.00 0.26 8.50 125.2
1 27 48.20 42.80 1.10 4.50 129.7
1 28 54.00 48.00 0.17 10.00 139.7
1 29 48.90 46.00 0.43 6.45 146.1
1 30 52.00 42.10 0.21 6.05 152.2
1 31 62.60 52.00 0.00 16.30 168.5
2 1 60.80 39.00 0.25 9.16 177.7
2 2 45.00 30.00 0.01 0.90 178.6
2 3 46.40 28.00 0.01 1.28 179.8
2 4 43.00 26.60 0.00 0.30 180.1
2 5 52.00 41.00 0.16 5.50 185.6
2 6 60.80 50.00 0.02 14.40 200.0
2 7 55.40 46.00 0.05 9.70 209.7
2 8 46.90 39.20 0.11 2.43 212.2
2 9 46.40 36.00 0.00 1.76 213.9
2 10 52.00 34.00 0.00 3.94 217.9
2 11 45.00 32.00 0.01 0.97 218.8
2 12 52.00 30.90 0.07 3.59 222.4
2 13 45.00 30.90 0.13 0.93 223.4
2 14 51.10 37.00 0.04 3.98 227.3
2 15 46.90 42.80 0.45 3.85 231.2
2 16 51.80 33.80 0.01 3.82 235.0
2 17 50.00 30.90 0.00 2.77 237.8
2 18 53.60 28.90 0.00 4.06 241.8
2 19 55.90 28.00 0.00 4.93 246.8
2 20 54.00 30.00 0.00 4.33 251.1
2 21 59.00 26.10 0.00 6.03 257.1
2 22 57.20 28.40 0.00 5.52 262.6
2 23 52.00 42.10 0.07 6.05 268.7
2 24 48.90 35.10 0.00 2.72 271.4
2 25 55.40 30.20 0.00 4.95 276.4
2 26 57.20 35.10 0.00 6.48 282.8
2 27 61.00 30.20 0.00 7.42 290.3
2 28 59.00 32.00 0.05 6.79 297.1
2 29 48.20 35.10 0.23 2.42 299.5
3 1 46.90 33.10 0.00 1.72 301.2
3 2 50.00 42.10 0.01 5.05 306.2
3 3 60.80 46.40 0.00 12.60 318.8
3 4 57.20 39.00 0.01 7.38 326.2
3 5 59.00 34.00 0.00 7.12 333.4
3 6 51.80 42.10 0.37 5.95 339.3
3 7 48.20 37.40 0.05 2.72 342.0
3 8 50.00 32.00 0.00 2.86 344.9
3 9 55.90 28.40 0.00 4.97 349.9
3 10 63.00 28.00 0.00 8.01 357.9
3 11 57.20 37.00 0.00 6.87 364.7
3 12 57.20 30.00 0.00 5.71 370.4
3 13 42.80 37.00 0.46 0.44 370.9
3 14 42.80 33.10 0.36 0.34 371.2
3 15 41.00 35.10 0.00 0.00 371.2
3 16 62.60 34.00 0.00 8.81 380.0
3 17 61.00 28.00 0.00 7.12 387.1
3 18 59.00 37.00 0.00 7.74 394.9
3 19 64.90 32.00 0.00 9.51 404.4
3 20 68.00 35.60 0.00 11.75 416.1
3 21 61.00 37.00 0.00 8.70 424.8
3 22 63.00 33.10 0.00 8.82 433.7
3 23 53.60 44.60 0.11 8.10 441.8
3 24 51.10 39.90 0.34 4.65 446.4
3 25 51.80 37.00 0.01 4.31 450.7
3 26 50.00 30.90 0.00 2.77 453.5
3 27 50.00 39.20 0.10 3.92 457.4
3 28 53.60 46.40 0.16 9.00 466.4
3 29 57.90 48.00 0.27 11.95 478.4
3 30 52.00 44.60 0.15 7.30 485.7
3 31 51.80 41.00 0.17 5.40 491.1
4 1 51.10 39.90 0.07 4.65 495.7
4 2 51.80 39.00 0.11 4.74 500.4
4 3 50.00 37.40 0.00 3.54 504.0
4 4 54.00 35.60 0.05 5.08 509.1
4 5 64.90 39.20 0.00 11.25 520.3
4 6 64.40 37.00 0.00 10.36 530.7
4 7 61.00 37.40 0.00 8.81 539.5
4 8 73.40 37.00 0.00 14.77 554.3
4 9 75.90 39.00 0.00 16.65 570.9
4 10 71.60 41.00 0.00 15.30 586.2
4 11 62.60 37.90 0.00 9.72 595.9
4 12 66.20 35.60 0.00 10.88 606.8
4 13 68.00 33.10 0.00 11.18 618.0
4 14 70.00 37.00 0.00 13.10 631.1
4 15 68.00 48.00 0.00 17.00 648.1
4 16 70.00 37.40 0.00 13.21 661.3
4 17 75.20 35.60 0.00 15.26 676.6
4 18 55.40 48.00 0.16 10.70 687.3
4 19 62.60 44.10 0.00 12.35 699.6
4 20 70.00 41.00 0.00 14.50 714.1
4 21 63.00 48.20 0.00 14.60 728.7
4 22 60.80 48.20 0.25 13.50 742.2
4 23 62.60 48.20 0.00 14.40 756.6
4 24 61.00 50.00 0.01 14.50 771.1
4 25 68.00 46.40 0.17 16.20 787.3
4 26 66.90 39.20 0.07 12.25 799.6
4 27 68.00 48.00 0.24 17.00 816.6
4 28 73.90 46.00 0.00 18.95 835.5
4 29 72.00 53.10 0.00 21.55 857.1 Peak pheromone trap catch
4 30 66.20 48.00 0.00 16.10 873.2
5 1 63.00 37.90 0.07 9.92 883.1
5 2 57.90 50.00 0.36 12.95 896.0
5 3 59.00 42.10 0.23 9.55 905.6
5 4 70.00 37.00 0.03 13.10 918.7
5 5 73.90 48.20 0.06 20.05 938.7
5 6 64.90 48.00 0.04 15.45 954.2 Peak female adult emergence
5 7 75.20 37.40 0.00 15.78 969.9
5 8 82.40 48.90 0.00 24.65 994.6
5 9 87.80 55.00 0.00 30.40 1025.0 Peak egg laying
5 10 87.80 55.40 0.00 30.60 1055.6
5 11 69.80 50.00 0.12 18.90 1074.5
5 12 64.40 51.80 0.10 17.10 1091.6
5 13 63.00 51.80 0.04 16.40 1108.0
5 14 57.20 53.10 0.35 14.15 1122.1
5 15 68.00 53.10 0.01 19.55 1141.7
5 16 70.00 53.60 0.19 20.80 1162.5
5 17 70.00 50.00 0.01 19.00 1181.5
5 18 62.60 53.10 0.30 16.85 1198.3
5 19 63.00 51.80 0.00 16.40 1214.7
5 20 60.80 50.00 0.10 14.40 1229.1
5 21 60.80 48.20 0.13 13.50 1242.6
5 22 62.60 46.00 0.07 13.30 1255.9
5 23 63.00 48.20 0.00 14.60 1270.5 Peak egg hatch
5 24 73.90 48.20 0.00 20.05 1290.6
5 25 66.90 51.80 0.07 18.35 1308.9
5 26 72.00 57.90 0.00 23.95 1332.9
5 27 84.20 46.40 0.00 24.30 1357.2
5 28 91.40 51.10 0.00 30.25 1387.4
5 29 82.90 59.00 0.00 29.95 1417.4
5 30 63.00 51.80 0.40 16.40 1433.8
5 31 66.00 51.80 0.00 17.90 1451.7
6 1 73.40 44.60 0.00 18.00 1469.7
6 2 79.00 46.00 0.00 21.50 1491.2
6 3 73.90 55.00 0.00 23.45 1514.6
6 4 73.00 51.10 0.00 21.05 1535.7
6 5 70.00 52.00 0.44 20.00 1555.7
6 6 57.20 50.00 0.61 12.60 1568.3
6 7 61.00 50.00 0.23 14.50 1582.8
6 8 64.40 53.60 0.52 18.00 1600.8
6 9 64.90 51.80 0.13 17.35 1618.1
6 10 79.00 60.80 0.00 28.90 1647.0
6 11 75.20 59.00 0.01 26.10 1673.1
6 12 63.00 55.00 0.08 18.00 1691.1
6 13 61.00 51.80 0.31 15.40 1706.5
6 14 68.00 48.90 0.17 17.45 1724.0
6 15 64.90 55.40 0.62 19.15 1743.1
6 16 66.20 53.10 0.08 18.65 1761.8
6 17 73.90 50.00 0.00 20.95 1782.7
6 18 82.40 51.10 0.00 25.75 1808.5
6 19 87.80 53.60 0.00 29.70 1838.2
6 20 71.60 60.80 0.20 25.20 1863.4
6 21 75.90 60.10 0.00 27.00 1890.4
6 22 86.00 51.80 0.00 27.90 1918.3
6 23 93.20 60.80 0.00 36.00 1954.3
6 24 79.00 61.00 0.00 29.00 1983.3
6 25 84.90 60.10 0.00 31.50 2014.8
6 26 87.80 60.80 0.00 33.30 2048.1
6 27 69.10 57.00 0.00 22.05 2070.1 Peak in density large larvae
6 28 71.60 55.40 0.00 22.50 2092.6
6 29 73.90 51.10 0.00 21.50 2114.1
6 30 71.60 59.00 0.01 24.30 2138.4
7 1 68.00 55.40 0.04 20.70 2159.1
7 2 72.00 55.40 0.00 22.70 2181.8
7 3 71.60 54.00 0.00 21.80 2203.6
7 4 73.40 57.20 0.00 24.30 2227.9
7 5 75.20 57.20 0.00 25.20 2253.1
7 6 69.80 55.40 0.00 21.60 2274.7
7 7 69.80 57.00 0.04 22.40 2297.1
7 8 75.20 57.00 0.00 25.10 2322.2
7 9 78.10 55.40 0.00 25.75 2348.0
7 10 80.60 57.20 0.00 27.90 2375.9
7 11 77.00 53.60 0.00 24.30 2400.2
7 12 77.00 59.00 0.00 27.00 2427.2
7 13 80.60 51.10 0.00 24.85 2452.0
7 14 84.90 55.40 0.00 29.15 2481.2
7 15 87.10 60.80 0.00 32.95 2514.1
7 16 82.90 60.80 0.00 30.85 2545.0
7 17 73.40 61.00 0.00 26.20 2571.2
7 18 84.90 55.40 0.00 29.15 2600.3
7 19 90.00 57.00 0.00 32.50 2632.8
7 20 93.90 60.10 0.00 36.00 2668.8
7 21 88.00 62.10 0.00 34.05 2702.9
7 22 81.00 62.10 0.00 30.55 2733.4
7 23 75.90 60.10 0.00 27.00 2760.4
7 24 71.60 59.00 0.00 24.30 2784.7
7 25 82.40 51.10 0.00 25.75 2810.5
7 26 100.40 57.00 0.00 37.70 2848.2
7 27 99.00 62.10 0.00 39.55 2887.7
7 28 89.10 60.80 0.00 33.95 2921.7
7 29 93.20 60.10 0.00 35.65 2957.3
7 30 96.10 62.10 0.00 38.10 2995.4
7 31 89.60 62.60 0.00 35.10 3030.5
8 1 82.40 60.10 0.00 30.25 3060.8
8 2 86.00 60.80 0.00 32.40 3093.2
8 3 84.20 57.20 0.00 29.70 3122.9
8 4 87.80 62.60 0.00 34.20 3157.1
8 5 84.90 60.10 0.00 31.50 3188.6
8 6 73.40 59.00 0.21 25.20 3213.8
8 7 79.00 53.60 0.00 25.30 3239.1
8 8 78.80 61.00 0.00 28.90 3268.0
8 9 84.00 55.00 0.00 28.50 3296.5
8 10 90.00 62.10 0.00 35.05 3331.5
8 11 80.60 51.80 0.00 25.20 3356.7
8 12 73.40 57.00 0.00 24.20 3380.9
8 13 78.80 48.90 0.00 22.85 3403.8
8 14 87.80 53.10 0.00 29.45 3433.2
8 15 99.00 59.00 0.00 38.00 3471.2
8 16 96.80 64.00 0.00 39.40 3510.6
8 17 91.90 64.00 0.00 36.95 3547.6
8 18 84.20 62.60 0.00 32.40 3580.0
8 19 87.80 59.00 0.00 32.40 3612.4
8 20 84.20 64.00 0.02 33.10 3645.5
8 21 77.00 61.00 0.09 28.00 3673.5
8 22 79.00 57.00 0.00 27.00 3700.5
8 23 84.20 54.00 0.00 28.10 3728.6
8 24 81.00 57.00 0.00 28.00 3756.6
8 25 82.40 57.00 0.00 28.70 3785.3
8 26 82.40 57.00 0.00 28.70 3814.0
8 27 84.20 55.00 0.00 28.60 3842.6
8 28 84.20 57.20 0.00 29.70 3872.3
8 29 77.00 57.00 0.00 26.00 3898.3
8 30 77.00 46.90 0.00 20.95 3919.2
8 31 75.90 57.20 0.00 25.55 3944.8
9 1 89.60 60.10 0.00 33.85 3978.6
9 2 91.40 59.00 0.00 34.20 4012.8
9 3 95.00 57.00 0.00 35.00 4047.8
9 4 87.80 60.80 0.00 33.30 4081.1
9 5 75.90 57.90 0.00 25.90 4107.0
9 6 89.60 52.00 0.00 29.80 4136.8
9 7 91.90 57.20 0.00 33.55 4170.4
9 8 82.40 64.40 0.00 32.40 4202.8
9 9 91.00 66.90 0.00 37.95 4240.7
9 10 81.00 57.20 0.00 28.10 4268.8
9 11 64.40 52.00 0.00 17.20 4286.0
9 12 64.90 50.00 0.00 16.45 4302.5
9 13 64.40 48.20 0.00 15.30 4317.8
9 14 73.90 53.60 0.00 22.75 4340.5
9 15 75.90 57.00 0.01 25.45 4366.0
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 KVUO PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight 1988Location: 2020 KVUO Vancouver Pearson Fld Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME Date | DDs | Event |
4-29-20 | 857 | Peak pheromone trap catch |
5-6-20 | 954 | Peak female adult emergence |
5-9-20 | 1025 | Peak egg laying |
5-23-20 | 1271 | Peak egg hatch |
6-27-20 | 2070 | Peak in density large larvae |