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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Knight 1988
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit
Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default)
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date
No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1
Ending date: 9 15
Model validation status: partly validated
Region of known use: Pacific Northwest
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 850 DDs after biofix: Peak pheromone trap catch
2. 950 DDs after biofix: Peak female adult emergence
3. 1000 DDs after biofix: Peak egg laying
4. 1270 DDs after biofix: Peak egg hatch
5. 2070 DDs after biofix: Peak in density large larvae
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2019 KVUO METAR Vancouver Pearson Fld WA Lat:45.6203 Long:-122.6564 Elev:26
mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
1 1 39.90 26.60 0.00 0.00 0.0 * START *
1 2 45.00 30.00 0.00 0.90 0.9
1 3 55.40 42.80 0.08 8.10 9.0
1 4 53.60 41.00 0.31 6.30 15.3
1 5 51.80 35.60 0.39 4.07 19.4
1 6 46.90 36.00 0.19 1.97 21.3
1 7 45.00 33.80 0.02 1.06 22.4
1 8 48.90 39.20 0.22 3.39 25.8
1 9 46.40 42.10 0.28 3.25 29.0
1 10 48.90 36.00 0.01 2.83 31.9
1 11 50.00 32.00 0.00 2.86 34.7
1 12 53.60 28.40 0.00 4.01 38.7
1 13 53.60 26.60 0.00 3.86 42.6
1 14 46.90 26.10 0.00 1.38 44.0
1 15 43.00 26.10 0.00 0.30 44.3
1 16 48.20 28.00 0.16 1.90 46.2
1 17 54.00 35.60 0.05 5.08 51.2
1 18 48.20 41.00 1.05 3.60 54.8
1 19 50.00 42.10 0.45 5.05 59.9
1 20 45.00 41.00 0.39 2.00 61.9
1 21 48.90 33.10 0.02 2.51 64.4
1 22 48.90 41.00 0.25 3.95 68.4
1 23 55.90 44.10 0.01 9.00 77.4
1 24 51.80 33.80 0.00 3.82 81.2
1 25 48.90 33.10 0.00 2.51 83.7
1 26 44.10 30.20 0.00 0.64 84.3
1 27 41.00 35.60 0.00 0.00 84.3
1 28 54.00 33.80 0.00 4.80 89.1
1 29 52.00 27.00 0.00 3.26 92.4
1 30 50.00 27.00 0.00 2.50 94.9
1 31 50.00 26.60 0.01 2.47 97.4
2 1 43.00 39.20 0.09 0.66 98.0
2 2 50.00 39.00 0.02 3.87 101.9
2 3 46.90 39.00 0.05 2.39 104.3
2 4 39.20 28.40 0.06 0.00 104.3
2 5 37.00 21.00 0.27 0.00 104.3
2 6 37.90 19.40 0.00 0.00 104.3
2 7 37.90 19.40 0.00 0.00 104.3
2 8 37.40 28.00 0.29 0.00 104.3
2 9 37.40 28.40 1.54 0.00 104.3
2 10 37.90 23.00 0.22 0.00 104.3
2 11 46.40 37.00 0.99 1.86 106.1
2 12 48.20 37.00 0.66 2.66 108.8
2 13 45.00 35.60 0.22 1.16 110.0
2 14 43.00 35.60 0.36 0.45 110.4
2 15 48.90 37.00 0.20 2.97 113.4
2 16 43.00 37.00 0.12 0.51 113.9
2 17 44.60 28.90 0.00 0.75 114.6
2 18 44.60 26.60 0.01 0.70 115.3
2 19 44.60 37.00 0.21 1.11 116.4
2 20 48.20 34.00 0.05 2.31 118.8
2 21 48.90 26.10 0.00 2.05 120.8
2 22 45.00 33.10 0.22 1.02 121.8
2 23 45.00 35.10 0.38 1.13 123.0
2 24 41.00 33.10 0.15 0.00 123.0
2 25 37.90 32.00 0.01 0.00 123.0
2 26 39.20 24.80 0.00 0.00 123.0
2 27 36.00 30.00 0.01 0.00 123.0
2 28 45.00 28.40 0.02 0.86 123.8
3 1 48.20 32.00 0.14 2.14 126.0
3 2 48.90 24.10 0.00 1.96 127.9
3 3 41.00 28.90 0.00 0.00 127.9
3 4 43.00 25.00 0.00 0.29 128.2
3 5 44.60 19.40 0.00 0.59 128.8
3 6 37.40 30.20 0.14 0.00 128.8
3 7 46.40 34.00 0.02 1.59 130.4
3 8 43.00 28.00 0.09 0.31 130.7
3 9 50.00 32.00 0.00 2.86 133.6
3 10 51.80 24.10 0.00 2.99 136.6
3 11 55.90 24.10 0.56 4.57 141.1
3 12 48.90 37.90 0.10 3.12 144.2
3 13 53.60 37.00 0.02 5.16 149.4
3 14 57.20 35.60 0.00 6.58 156.0
3 15 62.60 33.10 0.00 8.64 164.6
3 16 60.80 33.10 0.00 7.80 172.4
3 17 71.60 30.90 0.00 12.44 184.8
3 18 69.80 35.10 0.00 12.50 197.3
3 19 71.60 35.10 0.00 13.37 210.7
3 20 73.40 37.40 0.00 14.89 225.6
3 21 57.90 43.00 0.00 9.45 235.1
3 22 55.40 35.10 0.05 5.64 240.7
3 23 59.00 43.00 0.03 10.00 250.7 Pn
3 24 61.50 46.40 0.00 12.95 263.7 Px
3 25 53.60 44.60 0.31 8.10 271.8
3 26 59.00 37.90 0.00 7.96 279.7
3 27 55.90 35.10 0.24 5.88 285.6
3 28 62.60 35.10 0.05 9.04 294.6
3 29 63.00 42.80 0.00 11.90 306.5
3 30 68.00 35.60 0.00 11.75 318.3
3 31 70.00 35.10 0.00 12.60 330.9
4 1 66.20 46.00 0.00 15.10 346.0
4 2 61.00 53.10 0.03 16.05 362.0
4 3 61.00 44.60 0.02 11.80 373.8
4 4 60.80 42.80 0.18 10.80 384.6
4 5 55.40 48.20 1.67 10.80 395.4
4 6 57.20 43.60 0.00 9.40 404.8 Pn
4 7 56.80 46.70 0.00 10.75 415.6 Px Pn
4 8 57.90 51.10 0.00 13.50 429.1
4 9 55.50 48.00 0.02 10.75 439.8 Px
4 10 52.00 46.60 0.00 8.30 448.1 Pn
4 11 53.60 48.20 0.04 9.90 458.0
4 12 59.00 44.60 0.00 10.80 468.8
4 13 52.00 44.10 0.17 7.05 475.9
4 14 51.80 37.40 0.08 4.38 480.3
4 15 53.60 37.00 0.10 5.16 485.4
4 16 60.80 44.60 0.04 11.70 497.1
4 17 66.20 46.90 0.11 15.55 512.7
4 18 75.90 44.10 0.00 19.00 531.7
4 19 62.10 51.80 0.22 15.95 547.6
4 20 64.90 48.90 0.00 15.90 563.5
4 21 63.00 42.10 0.00 11.55 575.1
4 22 66.90 39.90 0.02 12.49 587.6
4 23 66.20 48.90 0.00 16.55 604.1
4 24 66.90 37.00 0.00 11.58 615.7
4 25 73.40 46.00 0.00 18.70 634.4
4 26 66.90 45.00 0.00 14.95 649.3
4 27 59.00 44.10 0.01 10.55 659.9
4 28 66.20 33.80 0.00 10.47 670.4
4 29 69.80 37.90 0.00 13.26 683.6
4 30 70.00 39.00 0.00 13.72 697.3
5 1 69.80 37.00 0.00 13.00 710.3
5 2 64.40 44.10 0.00 13.25 723.6
5 3 69.80 41.00 0.00 14.40 738.0
5 4 73.90 44.60 0.00 18.25 756.2
5 5 75.20 46.00 0.00 19.60 775.8
5 6 82.40 45.00 0.00 22.70 798.5
5 7 78.80 48.20 0.00 22.50 821.0
5 8 78.80 46.40 0.00 21.60 842.6
5 9 84.00 48.20 0.00 25.10 867.7 Peak pheromone trap catch
5 10 87.80 46.00 0.00 25.90 893.6
5 11 86.00 48.00 0.00 26.00 919.6
5 12 73.90 48.00 0.00 19.95 939.6
5 13 73.40 48.00 0.00 19.70 959.3 Peak female adult emergence
5 14 60.80 51.80 0.13 15.30 974.6
5 15 64.90 50.00 0.17 16.45 991.0
5 16 60.80 53.60 0.03 16.20 1007.2 Peak egg laying
5 17 63.00 52.00 0.01 16.50 1023.7
5 18 73.40 51.10 0.62 21.25 1045.0
5 19 63.00 51.10 0.03 16.05 1061.0
5 20 61.00 51.80 0.05 15.40 1076.4
5 21 64.90 48.20 0.45 15.55 1092.0
5 22 73.90 46.00 1.07 18.95 1110.9
5 23 80.60 55.00 0.00 26.80 1137.7
5 24 62.60 51.80 0.01 16.20 1153.9
5 25 55.90 50.00 0.37 11.95 1165.9
5 26 73.90 50.00 0.00 20.95 1186.8
5 27 69.80 57.20 0.00 22.50 1209.3
5 28 66.20 55.00 0.00 19.60 1228.9
5 29 75.20 51.80 0.00 22.50 1251.4
5 30 78.80 55.00 0.00 25.90 1277.3 Peak egg hatch
5 31 82.40 55.40 0.00 27.90 1305.2
6 1 80.60 53.10 0.00 25.85 1331.1
6 2 78.80 53.10 0.00 24.95 1356.0
6 3 73.90 48.20 0.00 20.05 1376.1
6 4 78.80 46.00 0.00 21.40 1397.5
6 5 66.90 55.00 0.00 19.95 1417.4
6 6 64.40 48.20 0.04 15.30 1432.7
6 7 62.60 50.00 0.30 15.30 1448.0
6 8 68.00 51.80 0.00 18.90 1466.9
6 9 81.00 44.60 0.00 21.80 1488.7
6 10 84.20 57.20 0.00 29.70 1518.4
6 11 96.80 60.80 0.00 37.80 1556.2
6 12 96.80 62.60 0.00 38.70 1594.9
6 13 84.20 57.00 0.00 29.60 1624.5
6 14 71.60 55.40 0.00 22.50 1647.0
6 15 78.80 55.00 0.00 25.90 1672.9
6 16 80.10 53.60 0.00 25.85 1698.8
6 17 80.60 55.40 0.00 27.00 1725.8
6 18 71.60 55.00 0.00 22.30 1748.1
6 19 70.00 50.00 0.00 19.00 1767.1
6 20 68.00 53.10 0.06 19.55 1786.6
6 21 70.00 55.00 0.00 21.50 1808.1
6 22 72.00 53.60 0.00 21.80 1829.9
6 23 70.00 54.00 0.00 21.00 1850.9
6 24 70.00 51.10 0.00 19.55 1870.5
6 25 73.90 51.80 0.00 21.85 1892.3
6 26 75.20 55.40 0.11 24.30 1916.6
6 27 62.60 54.00 0.12 17.30 1933.9
6 28 73.90 48.90 0.00 20.40 1954.3
6 29 80.60 51.10 0.00 24.85 1979.2
6 30 82.90 53.10 0.00 27.00 2006.2
7 1 81.00 55.40 0.59 27.20 2033.4
7 2 66.90 59.00 0.00 21.95 2055.3
7 3 71.60 59.00 0.00 24.30 2079.6 Peak in density large larvae
7 4 79.00 57.00 0.00 27.00 2106.6
7 5 73.90 57.20 0.00 24.55 2131.2
7 6 66.90 57.00 0.07 20.95 2152.1
7 7 73.40 51.80 0.00 21.60 2173.7
7 8 75.90 55.40 0.00 24.65 2198.4
7 9 73.40 57.20 0.26 24.30 2222.7
7 10 75.20 62.10 0.02 27.65 2250.3
7 11 80.60 62.60 0.00 30.60 2280.9
7 12 82.90 60.10 0.00 30.50 2311.4
7 13 81.00 62.10 0.00 30.55 2342.0
7 14 84.20 59.00 0.00 30.60 2372.6
7 15 75.90 62.60 0.03 28.25 2400.8
7 16 81.00 64.00 0.00 31.50 2432.3
7 17 73.90 62.60 0.00 27.25 2459.6
7 18 75.20 60.10 0.00 26.65 2486.2
7 19 75.90 50.00 0.00 21.95 2508.2
7 20 86.00 53.60 0.00 28.80 2537.0
7 21 89.60 55.00 0.00 31.30 2568.3
7 22 84.90 57.00 0.00 29.95 2598.2
7 23 75.90 60.80 0.00 27.35 2625.6
7 24 81.00 53.10 0.00 26.05 2651.6
7 25 90.00 53.10 0.00 30.55 2682.2
7 26 90.00 60.10 0.00 34.05 2716.2
7 27 78.80 60.80 0.01 28.80 2745.0
7 28 84.20 55.00 0.00 28.60 2773.6
7 29 82.40 60.10 0.00 30.25 2803.9
7 30 78.80 60.10 0.00 28.45 2832.3
7 31 84.90 55.40 0.00 29.15 2861.5
8 1 88.00 57.20 0.00 31.60 2893.1
8 2 80.10 64.00 0.10 31.05 2924.1
8 3 87.10 64.00 0.00 34.55 2958.7
8 4 93.00 59.00 0.00 35.00 2993.7
8 5 90.00 62.60 0.00 35.30 3029.0
8 6 84.20 60.80 0.00 31.50 3060.5
8 7 72.00 60.80 0.00 25.40 3085.9
8 8 70.00 62.60 0.00 25.30 3111.2
8 9 75.90 62.60 0.14 28.25 3139.4
8 10 78.10 57.90 0.14 27.00 3166.4
8 11 75.90 62.10 0.00 28.00 3194.4
8 12 82.40 55.40 0.00 27.90 3222.3
8 13 89.60 57.00 0.00 32.30 3254.6
8 14 86.00 60.10 0.00 32.05 3286.7
8 15 82.40 57.00 0.00 28.70 3315.4
8 16 75.20 59.00 0.00 26.10 3341.5
8 17 71.60 60.80 0.00 25.20 3366.7
8 18 77.00 55.00 0.00 25.00 3391.7
8 19 80.60 59.00 0.00 28.80 3420.5
8 20 84.90 55.00 0.00 28.95 3449.4
8 21 68.00 60.10 0.17 23.05 3472.5
8 22 73.90 55.00 0.00 23.45 3495.9
8 23 82.90 51.80 0.00 26.35 3522.3
8 24 80.60 55.00 0.00 26.80 3549.1
8 25 78.80 53.60 0.00 25.20 3574.3
8 26 86.00 57.00 0.00 30.50 3604.8
8 27 97.00 53.60 0.00 34.30 3639.1
8 28 97.00 57.00 0.01 36.00 3675.1
8 29 81.00 64.00 0.03 31.50 3706.6
8 30 79.00 63.00 0.00 30.00 3736.6
8 31 82.90 55.40 0.00 28.15 3764.7
9 1 82.90 64.00 0.00 32.45 3797.2
9 2 82.90 59.00 0.00 29.95 3827.1
9 3 84.20 57.00 0.00 29.60 3856.7
9 4 79.00 62.60 0.00 29.80 3886.5
9 5 88.00 59.00 0.00 32.50 3919.0
9 6 79.00 62.10 0.00 29.55 3948.6
9 7 68.00 59.00 0.19 22.50 3971.1
9 8 70.00 60.10 0.47 24.05 3995.1
9 9 68.00 59.00 0.24 22.50 4017.6
9 10 68.00 57.20 0.00 21.60 4039.2
9 11 73.90 55.00 0.00 23.45 4062.7
9 12 81.00 51.10 0.18 25.05 4087.7
9 13 75.90 60.80 0.96 27.35 4115.1
9 14 75.90 59.00 0.00 26.45 4141.5
9 15 64.90 59.00 0.76 20.95 4162.5
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 KVUO PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight 1988Location: 2019 KVUO Vancouver Pearson Fld Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME Date | DDs | Event |
5-9-19 | 868 | Peak pheromone trap catch |
5-13-19 | 959 | Peak female adult emergence |
5-16-19 | 1007 | Peak egg laying |
5-30-19 | 1277 | Peak egg hatch |
7-3-19 | 2080 | Peak in density large larvae |