Online Phenology Models and Degree-day Calculator
immaturedamagepupaadult
orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
insect model of Knight (1988)


Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
	Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================ Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Type: insect Model source/other links: Knight (1988) Calculation method: single sine Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default) Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1 Ending date: 9 15 Model validation status: partly validated Region of known use: Pacific Northwest ==============================EVENTS TABLE================================ 1. 850 DDs after biofix: peak pheromone trap catch 2. 950 DDs after biofix: peak female adult emergence 3. 1000 DDs after biofix: peak egg laying 4. 1270 DDs after biofix: peak egg hatch 5. 2070 DDs after biofix: peak in density large larvae ==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================ Weather station: 2017 KVUO METAR Vancouver Pearson Fld WA Lat:45.6203 Long:-122.6564 Elev:26 mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event -- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- ------- 1 1 41.00 32.00 0.07 0.00 0.0 * START * 1 2 36.00 30.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 3 36.00 28.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 4 35.10 27.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 5 36.00 15.10 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 6 34.00 14.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 7 30.90 24.10 0.01 0.00 0.0 1 8 36.00 28.00 0.56 0.00 0.0 1 9 41.00 32.00 0.29 0.00 0.0 1 10 39.90 30.90 0.69 0.00 0.0 1 11 32.00 27.00 0.08 0.00 0.0 1 12 33.80 10.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 13 28.40 8.10 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 14 30.20 8.10 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 15 30.20 12.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 16 30.20 21.20 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 17 34.00 24.80 1.07 0.00 0.0 1 18 46.40 33.10 0.73 1.53 1.5 1 19 52.00 37.00 0.00 4.40 5.9 1 20 43.00 35.10 0.30 0.44 6.4 1 21 48.20 37.00 0.36 2.66 9.0 1 22 46.40 33.10 0.12 1.53 10.6 1 23 50.00 30.00 0.00 2.70 13.3 1 24 41.00 30.00 0.01 0.00 13.3 1 25 45.00 35.00 0.01 1.12 14.4 1 26 49.00 34.00 0.00 2.64 17.0 1 27 48.20 28.00 0.00 1.90 18.9 1 28 45.00 28.00 0.00 0.84 19.8 1 29 46.40 30.20 0.01 1.37 21.1 1 30 45.00 35.60 0.00 1.16 22.3 1 31 42.80 35.10 0.00 0.38 22.7 2 1 39.90 35.60 0.00 0.00 22.7 2 2 39.90 33.80 0.10 0.00 22.7 2 3 36.00 32.00 0.62 0.00 22.7 2 4 52.00 33.80 0.54 3.91 26.6 2 5 46.90 35.00 1.97 1.87 28.5 2 6 45.00 35.10 0.04 1.13 29.6 2 7 39.90 33.10 0.12 0.00 29.6 2 8 37.90 35.60 1.29 0.00 29.6 2 9 59.00 37.00 0.78 7.74 37.3 2 10 50.00 42.80 0.17 5.40 42.7 2 11 50.00 33.10 0.00 2.97 45.7 2 12 52.00 30.20 0.00 3.52 49.2 2 13 54.00 27.00 0.00 4.05 53.3 2 14 48.90 28.40 0.14 2.17 55.4 2 15 43.00 39.00 1.28 0.64 56.1 2 16 50.00 41.00 1.08 4.50 60.6 2 17 57.90 41.00 0.01 8.45 69.0 2 18 46.90 42.80 0.35 3.85 72.9 2 19 51.80 41.00 0.31 5.40 78.3 2 20 50.00 41.00 0.83 4.50 82.8 2 21 50.00 36.00 0.30 3.32 86.1 2 22 45.00 30.00 0.01 0.90 87.0 2 23 46.40 30.20 0.00 1.37 88.4 2 24 41.00 33.80 0.08 0.00 88.4 2 25 48.20 30.00 0.00 2.01 90.4 2 26 41.00 37.40 0.29 0.00 90.4 2 27 44.60 37.00 0.07 1.11 91.5 2 28 50.00 33.80 0.13 3.04 94.5 3 1 51.80 39.20 0.01 4.79 99.3 3 2 51.10 37.40 0.52 4.06 103.4 3 3 52.00 44.60 0.10 7.30 110.7 3 4 48.20 35.10 0.16 2.42 113.1 3 5 46.90 35.60 0.09 1.93 115.0 3 6 46.40 35.10 0.11 1.68 116.7 3 7 50.00 41.00 0.44 4.50 121.2 3 8 46.00 42.10 0.32 3.05 124.3 3 9 59.00 42.10 0.52 9.55 133.8 3 10 61.00 44.10 0.00 11.55 145.4 3 11 57.90 39.00 0.30 7.73 153.1 3 12 62.10 46.40 0.00 13.25 166.3 3 13 53.60 46.40 0.72 9.00 175.3 3 14 57.90 50.00 0.76 12.95 188.3 3 15 57.20 46.90 0.47 11.05 199.3 3 16 55.90 35.60 0.00 5.97 205.3 3 17 48.20 35.10 0.39 2.42 207.7 3 18 55.90 35.60 0.35 5.97 213.7 3 19 57.20 30.00 0.00 5.71 219.4 3 20 55.90 35.10 0.17 5.88 225.3 3 21 57.20 44.10 0.19 9.65 234.9 3 22 55.40 41.00 0.02 7.20 242.1 3 23 57.90 42.80 0.57 9.35 251.5 3 24 54.00 46.40 0.40 9.20 260.7 3 25 55.90 42.80 0.01 8.35 269.0 3 26 48.90 44.60 0.64 5.75 274.8 3 27 55.40 46.00 0.03 9.70 284.5 3 28 59.00 46.40 0.16 11.70 296.2 3 29 59.00 46.40 0.10 11.70 307.9 3 30 57.20 41.00 0.02 8.10 316.0 3 31 57.20 37.00 0.00 6.87 322.8 4 1 59.00 46.90 0.05 11.95 334.8 4 2 57.20 37.00 0.00 6.87 341.7 4 3 57.20 35.60 0.00 6.58 348.2 4 4 59.50 41.70 0.00 9.60 357.8 Hx Hn 4 5 62.60 46.00 0.07 13.30 371.1 4 6 62.60 46.40 0.56 13.50 384.6 4 7 57.90 46.00 0.20 10.95 395.6 4 8 54.00 42.10 0.04 7.05 402.6 4 9 57.90 39.20 0.08 7.79 410.4 4 10 55.40 42.10 0.05 7.75 418.2 4 11 60.80 35.60 0.33 8.29 426.5 4 12 60.80 46.40 0.34 12.60 439.1 4 13 54.00 44.10 0.05 8.05 447.1 4 14 55.40 42.10 0.08 7.75 454.9 4 15 60.80 37.00 0.00 8.61 463.5 4 16 66.00 37.40 0.00 11.25 474.7 4 17 57.90 48.20 0.19 12.05 486.8 4 18 64.40 48.20 0.04 15.30 502.1 4 19 57.00 48.00 0.46 11.50 513.6 4 20 60.80 46.00 0.03 12.40 526.0 4 21 71.60 39.00 0.00 14.51 540.5 4 22 63.00 50.00 0.16 15.50 556.0 4 23 55.90 48.00 0.34 10.95 566.9 4 24 54.00 44.60 0.69 8.30 575.2 4 25 55.40 46.00 0.12 9.70 584.9 4 26 59.00 44.60 0.15 10.80 595.7 4 27 55.90 43.00 0.12 8.45 604.2 4 28 61.00 39.00 0.00 9.26 613.4 4 29 64.40 43.00 0.08 12.70 626.1 4 30 60.80 48.00 0.30 13.40 639.5 5 1 55.40 39.00 0.02 6.50 646.0 5 2 61.00 50.00 0.12 14.50 660.5 5 3 82.90 55.40 0.00 28.15 688.7 5 4 84.90 55.40 0.08 29.15 717.8 5 5 62.60 48.00 0.10 14.30 732.1 5 6 62.60 39.00 0.00 10.05 742.2 5 7 66.20 39.00 0.00 11.83 754.0 5 8 73.40 41.00 0.00 16.20 770.2 5 9 75.20 44.10 0.00 18.65 788.9 5 10 73.90 50.00 0.00 20.95 809.8 5 11 62.60 48.90 0.99 14.75 824.6 5 12 55.90 46.40 0.07 10.15 834.7 5 13 55.40 44.60 0.59 9.00 843.7 5 14 62.60 48.00 0.05 14.30 858.0 peak pheromone trap catch 5 15 60.80 44.10 0.24 11.45 869.5 5 16 57.20 48.00 0.35 11.60 881.1 5 17 57.90 48.00 0.02 11.95 893.0 5 18 70.00 41.00 0.00 14.50 907.5 5 19 75.20 50.00 0.00 21.60 929.1 5 20 73.40 55.00 0.00 23.20 952.3 peak female adult emergence 5 21 84.20 51.10 0.00 26.65 979.0 5 22 91.90 53.10 0.00 31.50 1010.5 peak egg laying 5 23 84.90 53.10 0.00 28.00 1038.5 5 24 66.20 48.00 0.00 16.10 1054.6 5 25 75.20 46.00 0.00 19.60 1074.2 5 26 84.20 50.00 0.00 26.10 1100.3 5 27 90.00 51.80 0.00 29.90 1130.2 5 28 84.90 55.40 0.00 29.15 1159.3 5 29 72.00 55.00 0.00 22.50 1181.8 5 30 60.80 53.60 0.00 16.20 1198.0 5 31 73.90 53.10 0.04 22.50 1220.5 6 1 71.60 59.00 0.07 24.30 1244.8 6 2 75.20 57.00 0.00 25.10 1269.9 6 3 66.20 55.40 0.00 19.80 1289.7 peak egg hatch 6 4 68.00 53.10 0.00 19.55 1309.3 6 5 78.80 44.10 0.00 20.45 1329.7 6 6 86.00 51.80 0.00 27.90 1357.6 6 7 78.80 53.60 0.12 25.20 1382.8 6 8 66.90 55.40 0.16 20.15 1403.0 6 9 63.00 51.80 0.24 16.40 1419.4 6 10 62.60 51.10 0.06 15.85 1435.2 6 11 71.60 53.10 0.12 21.35 1456.6 6 12 61.00 51.10 0.00 15.05 1471.6 6 13 63.00 51.80 0.01 16.40 1488.0 6 14 66.20 48.00 0.03 16.10 1504.1 6 15 64.40 55.40 0.50 18.90 1523.0 6 16 64.90 57.90 0.03 20.40 1543.4 6 17 70.00 55.40 0.00 21.70 1565.1 6 18 79.00 59.00 0.00 28.00 1593.1 6 19 77.00 60.10 0.00 27.55 1620.7 6 20 79.00 55.00 0.00 26.00 1646.7 6 21 75.00 51.10 0.00 22.05 1668.7 6 22 84.90 51.80 0.00 27.35 1696.1 6 23 90.00 53.60 0.00 30.80 1726.9 6 24 98.60 55.40 0.00 36.00 1762.9 QA 100% ok  
Forecast using:  Fox - IPPC forecast for KVUO data
  6 25  96.60 71.90  0.00  43.25   1806.1  0.00_34.25%_precip.    
  6 26  75.10 54.80  0.00  23.95   1830.1  0.00_14.95%_precip.    
  6 27  75.00 47.80  0.00  20.40   1850.5  0.00_11.49%_precip.    
  6 28  72.70 51.00  0.00  20.85   1871.3  0.00_11.85%_precip.    
  6 29  76.10 49.90  0.00  22.00   1893.3  0.00_13.00%_precip.    
Forecast using: 10 yr Hist Avg KVUO 2006-2015
  6 30  77.90 55.30  0.01  25.60   1918.9  *hist_fcst*    
  7  1  80.60 54.00  0.02  26.30   1945.2  *hist_fcst*    
  7  2  82.90 55.70  0.03  28.30   1973.5  *hist_fcst*    
  7  3  82.70 56.30  0.08  28.50   2002.0  *hist_fcst*    
  7  4  80.50 54.40  0.00  26.45   2028.5  *hist_fcst*    
  7  5  79.90 54.40  0.00  26.15   2054.6  *hist_fcst*    
  7  6  79.30 55.60  0.00  26.45   2081.1  *hist_fcst*   peak in density large larvae
  7  7  80.10 55.30  0.00  26.70   2107.8  *hist_fcst*    
  7  8  81.70 55.70  0.00  27.70   2135.5  *hist_fcst*    
  7  9  84.40 56.60  0.00  29.50   2165.0  *hist_fcst*    
  7 10  84.50 56.70  0.00  29.60   2194.6  *hist_fcst*    
  7 11  81.90 56.00  0.00  27.95   2222.5  *hist_fcst*    
  7 12  80.50 56.40  0.01  27.45   2250.0  *hist_fcst*    
  7 13  78.10 56.30  0.07  26.20   2276.2  *hist_fcst*    
  7 14  78.40 56.10  0.01  26.25   2302.4  *hist_fcst*    
  7 15  82.70 56.30  0.00  28.50   2330.9  *hist_fcst*    
  7 16  82.90 56.40  0.02  28.65   2359.6  *hist_fcst*    
  7 17  81.80 56.30  0.02  28.05   2387.6  *hist_fcst*    
  7 18  78.40 56.10  0.07  26.25   2413.9  *hist_fcst*    
  7 19  77.90 55.60  0.02  25.75   2439.6  *hist_fcst*    
  7 20  80.50 56.50  0.01  27.50   2467.1  *hist_fcst*    
  7 21  79.40 56.60  0.01  27.00   2494.1  *hist_fcst*    
  7 22  81.00 56.80  0.01  27.90   2522.0  *hist_fcst*    
  7 23  77.10 57.40  0.01  26.25   2548.3  *hist_fcst*    
  7 24  79.40 56.20  0.06  26.80   2575.1  *hist_fcst*    
  7 25  83.70 55.90  0.01  28.80   2603.9  *hist_fcst*    
  7 26  81.90 56.10  0.03  28.00   2631.9  *hist_fcst*    
  7 27  82.10 56.10  0.01  28.10   2660.0  *hist_fcst*    
  7 28  81.40 56.10  0.00  27.75   2687.7  *hist_fcst*    
  7 29  82.80 57.10  0.00  28.95   2716.7  *hist_fcst*    
  7 30  82.10 57.40  0.00  28.75   2745.4  *hist_fcst*    
  7 31  82.00 55.70  0.00  27.85   2773.3  *hist_fcst*    
  8  1  83.00 55.90  0.00  28.45   2801.7  *hist_fcst*    
  8  2  81.80 56.80  0.00  28.30   2830.0  *hist_fcst*    
  8  3  80.20 56.60  0.00  27.40   2857.4  *hist_fcst*    
  8  4  82.80 56.10  0.00  28.45   2885.9  *hist_fcst*    
  8  5  85.80 56.30  0.00  30.05   2915.9  *hist_fcst*    
  8  6  83.20 57.20  0.00  29.20   2945.1  *hist_fcst*    
  8  7  80.60 57.60  0.00  28.10   2973.2  *hist_fcst*    
  8  8  78.90 57.30  0.00  27.10   3000.3  *hist_fcst*    
  8  9  76.60 57.40  0.01  26.00   3026.3  *hist_fcst*    
  8 10  77.00 56.30  0.00  25.65   3052.0  *hist_fcst*    
  8 11  79.80 56.40  0.00  27.10   3079.1  *hist_fcst*    
  8 12  81.80 57.30  0.05  28.55   3107.6  *hist_fcst*    
  8 13  81.00 56.70  0.03  27.85   3135.5  *hist_fcst*    
  8 14  82.80 56.80  0.00  28.80   3164.3  *hist_fcst*    
  8 15  84.10 57.60  0.01  29.85   3194.1  *hist_fcst*    
  8 16  83.40 58.00  0.00  29.70   3223.8  *hist_fcst*    
  8 17  85.00 57.50  0.00  30.25   3254.1  *hist_fcst*    
  8 18  85.70 57.30  0.00  30.50   3284.6  *hist_fcst*    
  8 19  82.40 57.50  0.06  28.95   3313.5  *hist_fcst*    
  8 20  82.30 56.90  0.05  28.60   3342.1  *hist_fcst*    
  8 21  79.70 55.60  0.04  26.65   3368.8  *hist_fcst*    
  8 22  78.30 54.10  0.00  25.20   3394.0  *hist_fcst*    
  8 23  78.60 53.70  0.01  25.15   3419.1  *hist_fcst*    
  8 24  79.60 54.00  0.00  25.80   3444.9  *hist_fcst*    
  8 25  80.60 54.00  0.04  26.30   3471.2  *hist_fcst*    
  8 26  81.40 53.70  0.01  26.55   3497.8  *hist_fcst*    
  8 27  81.30 54.20  0.03  26.75   3524.5  *hist_fcst*    
  8 28  82.90 55.30  0.01  28.10   3552.6  *hist_fcst*    
  8 29  80.70 56.30  0.05  27.50   3580.1  *hist_fcst*    
  8 30  76.10 56.30  0.05  25.20   3605.3  *hist_fcst*    
  8 31  75.00 54.80  0.06  23.90   3629.2  *hist_fcst*    
  9  1  74.80 52.30  0.04  22.55   3651.8  *hist_fcst*    
  9  2  78.10 52.10  0.01  24.10   3675.9  *hist_fcst*    
  9  3  80.00 51.90  0.03  24.95   3700.8  *hist_fcst*    
  9  4  79.30 52.60  0.01  24.95   3725.8  *hist_fcst*    
  9  5  77.80 53.20  0.02  24.50   3750.3  *hist_fcst*    
  9  6  77.40 53.30  0.20  24.35   3774.6  *hist_fcst*    
  9  7  78.10 52.70  0.05  24.40   3799.0  *hist_fcst*    
  9  8  80.30 52.40  0.07  25.35   3824.4  *hist_fcst*    
  9  9  79.20 52.90  0.00  25.05   3849.4  *hist_fcst*    
  9 10  78.40 53.60  0.01  25.00   3874.4  *hist_fcst*    
  9 11  82.20 51.80  0.00  26.00   3900.4  *hist_fcst*    
  9 12  85.70 52.00  0.00  27.85   3928.3  *hist_fcst*    
  9 13  81.40 53.10  0.00  26.25   3954.5  *hist_fcst*    
  9 14  75.90 53.40  0.00  23.65   3978.2  *hist_fcst*    
  9 15  74.90 52.90  0.03  22.90   4001.1  *hist_fcst*    
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight
Location: 2017 KVUO Vancouver Pearson Fld
QA 100% ok  - show details 
  
This year is about  versus  QA
 21 days behind 2016 ok
 17 days behind 2015 ok
 3 days behind 30-yr normal ok
DateDDsEvent
 5-14-17 858peak pheromone trap catch
 5-20-17 952peak female adult emergence
 5-22-17 1010peak egg laying
 6-3-17 1290peak egg hatch
 7-6-17 2081peak in density large larvae
degree-day graph of orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Knight (1988)