Online Phenology Models and Degree-day Calculator
immaturedamagepupaadult
orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
insect model of Knight (1988)


Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
	Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================ Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Type: insect Model source/other links: Knight (1988) Calculation method: single sine Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default) Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1 Ending date: 9 15 Model validation status: partly validated Region of known use: Pacific Northwest ==============================EVENTS TABLE================================ 1. 850 DDs after biofix: peak pheromone trap catch 2. 950 DDs after biofix: peak female adult emergence 3. 1000 DDs after biofix: peak egg laying 4. 1270 DDs after biofix: peak egg hatch 5. 2070 DDs after biofix: peak in density large larvae ==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================ Weather station: 2017 KVUO METAR Vancouver Pearson Fld WA Lat:45.6203 Long:-122.6564 Elev:26 mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event -- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- ------- 1 1 41.00 32.00 0.07 0.00 0.0 * START * 1 2 36.00 30.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 3 36.00 28.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 4 35.10 27.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 5 36.00 15.10 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 6 34.00 14.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 7 30.90 24.10 0.01 0.00 0.0 1 8 36.00 28.00 0.56 0.00 0.0 1 9 41.00 32.00 0.29 0.00 0.0 1 10 39.90 30.90 0.69 0.00 0.0 1 11 32.00 27.00 0.08 0.00 0.0 1 12 33.80 10.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 13 28.40 8.10 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 14 30.20 8.10 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 15 30.20 12.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 16 30.20 21.20 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 17 34.00 24.80 1.07 0.00 0.0 1 18 46.40 33.10 0.73 1.53 1.5 1 19 52.00 37.00 0.00 4.40 5.9 1 20 43.00 35.10 0.30 0.44 6.4 1 21 48.20 37.00 0.36 2.66 9.0 1 22 46.40 33.10 0.12 1.53 10.6 1 23 50.00 30.00 0.00 2.70 13.3 1 24 41.00 30.00 0.01 0.00 13.3 1 25 45.00 35.00 0.01 1.12 14.4 1 26 49.00 34.00 0.00 2.64 17.0 1 27 48.20 28.00 0.00 1.90 18.9 1 28 45.00 28.00 0.00 0.84 19.8 1 29 46.40 30.20 0.01 1.37 21.1 1 30 45.00 35.60 0.00 1.16 22.3 1 31 42.80 35.10 0.00 0.38 22.7 2 1 39.90 35.60 0.00 0.00 22.7 2 2 39.90 33.80 0.10 0.00 22.7 2 3 36.00 32.00 0.62 0.00 22.7 2 4 52.00 33.80 0.54 3.91 26.6 2 5 46.90 35.00 1.97 1.87 28.5 2 6 45.00 35.10 0.04 1.13 29.6 2 7 39.90 33.10 0.12 0.00 29.6 2 8 37.90 35.60 1.29 0.00 29.6 2 9 59.00 37.00 0.78 7.74 37.3 2 10 50.00 42.80 0.17 5.40 42.7 2 11 50.00 33.10 0.00 2.97 45.7 2 12 52.00 30.20 0.00 3.52 49.2 2 13 54.00 27.00 0.00 4.05 53.3 2 14 48.90 28.40 0.14 2.17 55.4 2 15 43.00 39.00 1.28 0.64 56.1 2 16 50.00 41.00 1.08 4.50 60.6 2 17 57.90 41.00 0.01 8.45 69.0 2 18 46.90 42.80 0.35 3.85 72.9 2 19 51.80 41.00 0.31 5.40 78.3 2 20 50.00 41.00 0.83 4.50 82.8 2 21 50.00 36.00 0.30 3.32 86.1 2 22 45.00 30.00 0.01 0.90 87.0 2 23 46.40 30.20 0.00 1.37 88.4 2 24 41.00 33.80 0.08 0.00 88.4 2 25 48.20 30.00 0.00 2.01 90.4 2 26 41.00 37.40 0.29 0.00 90.4 2 27 44.60 37.00 0.07 1.11 91.5 2 28 50.00 33.80 0.13 3.04 94.5 3 1 51.80 39.20 0.01 4.79 99.3 3 2 51.10 37.40 0.52 4.06 103.4 3 3 52.00 44.60 0.10 7.30 110.7 3 4 48.20 35.10 0.16 2.42 113.1 3 5 46.90 35.60 0.09 1.93 115.0 3 6 46.40 35.10 0.11 1.68 116.7 3 7 50.00 41.00 0.44 4.50 121.2 3 8 46.00 42.10 0.32 3.05 124.3 3 9 59.00 42.10 0.52 9.55 133.8 3 10 61.00 44.10 0.00 11.55 145.4 3 11 57.90 39.00 0.30 7.73 153.1 3 12 62.10 46.40 0.00 13.25 166.3 3 13 53.60 46.40 0.72 9.00 175.3 3 14 57.90 50.00 0.76 12.95 188.3 3 15 57.20 46.90 0.47 11.05 199.3 3 16 55.90 35.60 0.00 5.97 205.3 3 17 48.20 35.10 0.39 2.42 207.7 3 18 55.90 35.60 0.35 5.97 213.7 3 19 57.20 30.00 0.00 5.71 219.4 3 20 55.90 35.10 0.17 5.88 225.3 3 21 57.20 44.10 0.19 9.65 234.9 3 22 55.40 41.00 0.02 7.20 242.1 3 23 57.90 42.80 0.57 9.35 251.5 3 24 54.00 46.40 0.40 9.20 260.7 3 25 55.90 42.80 0.01 8.35 269.0 3 26 48.90 44.60 0.64 5.75 274.8 3 27 55.40 46.00 0.03 9.70 284.5 3 28 59.00 46.40 0.16 11.70 296.2 3 29 59.00 46.40 0.10 11.70 307.9 3 30 57.20 41.00 0.02 8.10 316.0 3 31 57.20 37.00 0.00 6.87 322.8 4 1 59.00 46.90 0.05 11.95 334.8 4 2 57.20 37.00 0.00 6.87 341.7 4 3 57.20 35.60 0.00 6.58 348.2 4 4 59.50 41.70 0.00 9.60 357.8 Hx Hn 4 5 62.60 46.00 0.07 13.30 371.1 4 6 62.60 46.40 0.56 13.50 384.6 4 7 57.90 46.00 0.20 10.95 395.6 4 8 54.00 42.10 0.04 7.05 402.6 4 9 57.90 39.20 0.08 7.79 410.4 4 10 55.40 42.10 0.05 7.75 418.2 4 11 60.80 35.60 0.33 8.29 426.5 4 12 60.80 46.40 0.34 12.60 439.1 4 13 54.00 44.10 0.05 8.05 447.1 4 14 55.40 42.10 0.08 7.75 454.9 4 15 60.80 37.00 0.00 8.61 463.5 4 16 66.00 37.40 0.00 11.25 474.7 4 17 57.90 48.20 0.19 12.05 486.8 4 18 64.40 48.20 0.04 15.30 502.1 4 19 57.00 48.00 0.46 11.50 513.6 4 20 60.80 46.00 0.03 12.40 526.0 4 21 71.60 39.00 0.00 14.51 540.5 4 22 63.00 50.00 0.16 15.50 556.0 4 23 55.90 48.00 0.34 10.95 566.9 4 24 54.00 44.60 0.69 8.30 575.2 4 25 55.40 46.00 0.12 9.70 584.9 4 26 59.00 44.60 0.15 10.80 595.7 4 27 55.90 43.00 0.12 8.45 604.2 4 28 61.00 39.00 0.00 9.26 613.4 4 29 64.40 43.00 0.08 12.70 626.1 4 30 60.80 48.00 0.30 13.40 639.5 5 1 55.40 39.00 0.02 6.50 646.0 5 2 61.00 50.00 0.12 14.50 660.5 5 3 82.90 55.40 0.00 28.15 688.7 5 4 84.90 55.40 0.08 29.15 717.8 5 5 62.60 48.00 0.10 14.30 732.1 5 6 62.60 39.00 0.00 10.05 742.2 5 7 66.20 39.00 0.00 11.83 754.0 5 8 73.40 41.00 0.00 16.20 770.2 5 9 75.20 44.10 0.00 18.65 788.9 5 10 73.90 50.00 0.00 20.95 809.8 5 11 62.60 48.90 0.99 14.75 824.6 5 12 55.90 46.40 0.07 10.15 834.7 5 13 55.40 44.60 0.59 9.00 843.7 5 14 62.60 48.00 0.05 14.30 858.0 peak pheromone trap catch 5 15 60.80 44.10 0.24 11.45 869.5 5 16 57.20 48.00 0.35 11.60 881.1 5 17 57.90 48.00 0.02 11.95 893.0 5 18 70.00 41.00 0.00 14.50 907.5 5 19 75.20 50.00 0.00 21.60 929.1 5 20 73.40 55.00 0.00 23.20 952.3 peak female adult emergence 5 21 84.20 51.10 0.00 26.65 979.0 5 22 91.90 53.10 0.00 31.50 1010.5 peak egg laying 5 23 84.20 53.10 0.00 27.65 1038.1
DD accumulation on 5-23-17: 1038QA 100% ok    
  
This year is about  versus  QA
 22 days behind 2016 ok
 19 days behind 2015 ok
 5 days behind 30-yr normal ok
Forecast using:  Fox - IPPC forecast for KVUO data
  5 24  61.00 47.50  0.01  13.25   1051.4  0.005_4.48%_precip.    
  5 25  70.90 48.40  0.01  18.65   1070.0  0.008_9.71%_precip.    
  5 26  81.60 49.10  0.00  24.35   1094.4  0.00_15.36%_precip.    
  5 27  85.70 58.10  0.00  30.90   1125.3  0.00_21.90%_precip.    
Forecast using: 10 yr Hist Avg KVUO 2006-2015
  5 28  65.90 49.30  0.11  16.60   1141.9  *hist_fcst*    
  5 29  66.50 49.20  0.12  16.85   1158.7  *hist_fcst*    
  5 30  70.00 49.10  0.01  18.55   1177.3  *hist_fcst*    
  5 31  74.10 50.30  0.03  21.20   1198.5  *hist_fcst*    
  6  1  74.50 52.20  0.04  22.35   1220.8  *hist_fcst*    
  6  2  70.30 52.50  0.16  20.40   1241.2  *hist_fcst*    
  6  3  70.30 50.90  0.12  19.60   1260.8  *hist_fcst*    
  6  4  72.40 50.70  0.13  20.55   1281.4  *hist_fcst*   peak egg hatch
  6  5  72.60 51.40  0.13  21.00   1302.4  *hist_fcst*    
  6  6  71.10 50.80  0.09  19.95   1322.3  *hist_fcst*    
  6  7  70.80 51.70  0.15  20.25   1342.6  *hist_fcst*    
  6  8  70.10 51.80  0.04  19.95   1362.5  *hist_fcst*    
  6  9  70.90 51.20  0.06  20.05   1382.6  *hist_fcst*    
  6 10  69.60 50.40  0.06  19.00   1401.6  *hist_fcst*    
  6 11  68.00 50.60  0.04  18.30   1419.9  *hist_fcst*    
  6 12  70.90 50.90  0.00  19.90   1439.8  *hist_fcst*    
  6 13  70.60 51.70  0.10  20.15   1459.9  *hist_fcst*    
  6 14  69.00 50.90  0.02  18.95   1478.9  *hist_fcst*    
  6 15  69.40 50.50  0.01  18.95   1497.8  *hist_fcst*    
  6 16  72.10 50.10  0.06  20.10   1517.9  *hist_fcst*    
  6 17  70.90 51.20  0.07  20.05   1538.0  *hist_fcst*    
  6 18  69.50 51.60  0.00  19.55   1557.5  *hist_fcst*    
  6 19  69.70 51.60  0.05  19.65   1577.2  *hist_fcst*    
  6 20  72.00 51.10  0.10  20.55   1597.7  *hist_fcst*    
  6 21  73.70 51.10  0.02  21.40   1619.1  *hist_fcst*    
  6 22  75.70 52.50  0.00  23.10   1642.2  *hist_fcst*    
  6 23  73.30 51.40  0.03  21.35   1663.6  *hist_fcst*    
  6 24  74.50 52.30  0.11  22.40   1686.0  *hist_fcst*    
  6 25  75.90 53.30  0.03  23.60   1709.6  *hist_fcst*    
  6 26  76.40 54.00  0.08  24.20   1733.8  *hist_fcst*    
  6 27  78.40 54.50  0.07  25.45   1759.2  *hist_fcst*    
  6 28  81.00 55.50  0.02  27.25   1786.5  *hist_fcst*    
  6 29  79.20 56.80  0.02  27.00   1813.5  *hist_fcst*    
  6 30  77.90 55.30  0.01  25.60   1839.1  *hist_fcst*    
  7  1  80.60 54.00  0.02  26.30   1865.4  *hist_fcst*    
  7  2  82.90 55.70  0.03  28.30   1893.7  *hist_fcst*    
  7  3  82.70 56.30  0.08  28.50   1922.2  *hist_fcst*    
  7  4  80.50 54.40  0.00  26.45   1948.6  *hist_fcst*    
  7  5  79.90 54.40  0.00  26.15   1974.8  *hist_fcst*    
  7  6  79.30 55.60  0.00  26.45   2001.2  *hist_fcst*    
  7  7  80.10 55.30  0.00  26.70   2027.9  *hist_fcst*    
  7  8  81.70 55.70  0.00  27.70   2055.6  *hist_fcst*    
  7  9  84.40 56.60  0.00  29.50   2085.1  *hist_fcst*   peak in density large larvae
  7 10  84.50 56.70  0.00  29.60   2114.7  *hist_fcst*    
  7 11  81.90 56.00  0.00  27.95   2142.7  *hist_fcst*    
  7 12  80.50 56.40  0.01  27.45   2170.1  *hist_fcst*    
  7 13  78.10 56.30  0.07  26.20   2196.3  *hist_fcst*    
  7 14  78.40 56.10  0.01  26.25   2222.6  *hist_fcst*    
  7 15  82.70 56.30  0.00  28.50   2251.1  *hist_fcst*    
  7 16  82.90 56.40  0.02  28.65   2279.7  *hist_fcst*    
  7 17  81.80 56.30  0.02  28.05   2307.8  *hist_fcst*    
  7 18  78.40 56.10  0.07  26.25   2334.0  *hist_fcst*    
  7 19  77.90 55.60  0.02  25.75   2359.8  *hist_fcst*    
  7 20  80.50 56.50  0.01  27.50   2387.3  *hist_fcst*    
  7 21  79.40 56.60  0.01  27.00   2414.3  *hist_fcst*    
  7 22  81.00 56.80  0.01  27.90   2442.2  *hist_fcst*    
  7 23  77.10 57.40  0.01  26.25   2468.4  *hist_fcst*    
  7 24  79.40 56.20  0.06  26.80   2495.2  *hist_fcst*    
  7 25  83.70 55.90  0.01  28.80   2524.0  *hist_fcst*    
  7 26  81.90 56.10  0.03  28.00   2552.0  *hist_fcst*    
  7 27  82.10 56.10  0.01  28.10   2580.1  *hist_fcst*    
  7 28  81.40 56.10  0.00  27.75   2607.9  *hist_fcst*    
  7 29  82.80 57.10  0.00  28.95   2636.8  *hist_fcst*    
  7 30  82.10 57.40  0.00  28.75   2665.6  *hist_fcst*    
  7 31  82.00 55.70  0.00  27.85   2693.4  *hist_fcst*    
  8  1  83.00 55.90  0.00  28.45   2721.9  *hist_fcst*    
  8  2  81.80 56.80  0.00  28.30   2750.2  *hist_fcst*    
  8  3  80.20 56.60  0.00  27.40   2777.6  *hist_fcst*    
  8  4  82.80 56.10  0.00  28.45   2806.0  *hist_fcst*    
  8  5  85.80 56.30  0.00  30.05   2836.1  *hist_fcst*    
  8  6  83.20 57.20  0.00  29.20   2865.3  *hist_fcst*    
  8  7  80.60 57.60  0.00  28.10   2893.4  *hist_fcst*    
  8  8  78.90 57.30  0.00  27.10   2920.5  *hist_fcst*    
  8  9  76.60 57.40  0.01  26.00   2946.5  *hist_fcst*    
  8 10  77.00 56.30  0.00  25.65   2972.1  *hist_fcst*    
  8 11  79.80 56.40  0.00  27.10   2999.2  *hist_fcst*    
  8 12  81.80 57.30  0.05  28.55   3027.8  *hist_fcst*    
  8 13  81.00 56.70  0.03  27.85   3055.6  *hist_fcst*    
  8 14  82.80 56.80  0.00  28.80   3084.4  *hist_fcst*    
  8 15  84.10 57.60  0.01  29.85   3114.3  *hist_fcst*    
  8 16  83.40 58.00  0.00  29.70   3144.0  *hist_fcst*    
  8 17  85.00 57.50  0.00  30.25   3174.2  *hist_fcst*    
  8 18  85.70 57.30  0.00  30.50   3204.7  *hist_fcst*    
  8 19  82.40 57.50  0.06  28.95   3233.7  *hist_fcst*    
  8 20  82.30 56.90  0.05  28.60   3262.3  *hist_fcst*    
  8 21  79.70 55.60  0.04  26.65   3288.9  *hist_fcst*    
  8 22  78.30 54.10  0.00  25.20   3314.1  *hist_fcst*    
  8 23  78.60 53.70  0.01  25.15   3339.3  *hist_fcst*    
  8 24  79.60 54.00  0.00  25.80   3365.1  *hist_fcst*    
  8 25  80.60 54.00  0.04  26.30   3391.4  *hist_fcst*    
  8 26  81.40 53.70  0.01  26.55   3417.9  *hist_fcst*    
  8 27  81.30 54.20  0.03  26.75   3444.7  *hist_fcst*    
  8 28  82.90 55.30  0.01  28.10   3472.8  *hist_fcst*    
  8 29  80.70 56.30  0.05  27.50   3500.3  *hist_fcst*    
  8 30  76.10 56.30  0.05  25.20   3525.5  *hist_fcst*    
  8 31  75.00 54.80  0.06  23.90   3549.4  *hist_fcst*    
  9  1  74.80 52.30  0.04  22.55   3571.9  *hist_fcst*    
  9  2  78.10 52.10  0.01  24.10   3596.0  *hist_fcst*    
  9  3  80.00 51.90  0.03  24.95   3621.0  *hist_fcst*    
  9  4  79.30 52.60  0.01  24.95   3645.9  *hist_fcst*    
  9  5  77.80 53.20  0.02  24.50   3670.4  *hist_fcst*    
  9  6  77.40 53.30  0.20  24.35   3694.8  *hist_fcst*    
  9  7  78.10 52.70  0.05  24.40   3719.2  *hist_fcst*    
  9  8  80.30 52.40  0.07  25.35   3744.5  *hist_fcst*    
  9  9  79.20 52.90  0.00  25.05   3769.6  *hist_fcst*    
  9 10  78.40 53.60  0.01  25.00   3794.6  *hist_fcst*    
  9 11  82.20 51.80  0.00  26.00   3820.6  *hist_fcst*    
  9 12  85.70 52.00  0.00  27.85   3848.4  *hist_fcst*    
  9 13  81.40 53.10  0.00  26.25   3874.7  *hist_fcst*    
  9 14  75.90 53.40  0.00  23.65   3898.3  *hist_fcst*    
  9 15  74.90 52.90  0.03  22.90   3921.2  *hist_fcst*    
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight
Location: 2017 KVUO Vancouver Pearson Fld
DD accumulation on 5-23-17: 1038 QA 100% ok  - show details 
  
This year is about  versus  QA
 22 days behind 2016 ok
 19 days behind 2015 ok
 5 days behind 30-yr normal ok
DateDDsEvent
 5-14-17 858peak pheromone trap catch
 5-20-17 952peak female adult emergence
 5-22-17 1010peak egg laying
 6-4-17 1281peak egg hatch
 7-9-17 2085peak in density large larvae
degree-day graph of orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Knight (1988)