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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Knight 1988
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit
Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default)
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date
No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1
Ending date: 9 15
Model validation status: partly validated
Region of known use: Pacific Northwest
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 850 DDs after biofix: Peak pheromone trap catch
2. 950 DDs after biofix: Peak female adult emergence
3. 1000 DDs after biofix: Peak egg laying
4. 1270 DDs after biofix: Peak egg hatch
5. 2070 DDs after biofix: Peak in density large larvae
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2016 KVUO METAR Vancouver Pearson Fld WA Lat:45.6203 Long:-122.6564 Elev:26
mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
1 1 37.00 30.90 0.00 0.00 0.0 * START *
1 2 36.00 27.00 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 3 30.90 26.10 0.01 0.00 0.0
1 4 35.10 30.00 0.02 0.00 0.0
1 5 39.00 28.90 0.22 0.00 0.0
1 6 42.10 28.00 0.01 0.13 0.1
1 7 45.00 28.00 0.01 0.84 1.0
1 8 46.90 27.00 0.00 1.41 2.4
1 9 45.00 30.00 0.04 0.90 3.3
1 10 50.00 28.00 0.00 2.56 5.8
1 11 41.00 28.00 0.16 0.00 5.8
1 12 42.10 37.00 1.07 0.22 6.1
1 13 48.00 39.00 0.91 2.91 9.0
1 14 45.00 39.20 0.14 1.54 10.5
1 15 45.00 39.90 0.32 1.67 12.2
1 16 51.10 42.10 0.30 5.60 17.8
1 17 45.00 41.00 0.81 2.00 19.8
1 18 51.10 39.90 0.24 4.65 24.4
1 19 48.20 42.10 0.58 4.15 28.6
1 20 48.90 42.10 0.36 4.50 33.1
1 21 51.10 44.10 0.46 6.60 39.7
1 22 57.00 43.00 0.17 9.00 48.7
1 23 51.10 43.00 0.10 6.05 54.7
1 24 50.00 37.90 0.01 3.63 58.4
1 25 55.00 41.00 0.00 7.00 65.4
1 26 48.20 44.10 0.08 5.15 70.5
1 27 53.10 46.00 0.16 8.55 79.1
1 28 57.90 39.90 0.60 8.02 87.1
1 29 53.10 41.00 0.30 6.05 93.1
1 30 46.00 37.90 0.08 1.80 94.9
1 31 43.00 39.00 0.11 0.64 95.6
2 1 46.00 39.00 0.03 1.97 97.5
2 2 48.00 30.90 0.00 1.99 99.5
2 3 48.00 41.00 0.30 3.50 103.0
2 4 55.00 43.00 0.37 8.00 111.0
2 5 57.90 37.90 0.11 7.43 118.5
2 6 51.10 37.00 0.00 3.98 122.4
2 7 60.10 39.00 0.00 8.81 131.3
2 8 61.00 34.00 0.00 8.06 139.3
2 9 59.00 33.10 0.00 6.96 146.3
2 10 60.10 37.90 0.00 8.50 154.8
2 11 55.90 46.00 0.18 9.95 164.7
2 12 54.00 48.00 0.20 10.00 174.7
2 13 52.00 44.10 0.38 7.05 181.8
2 14 57.00 48.90 0.06 11.95 193.7
2 15 60.10 51.10 0.10 14.60 208.3
2 16 55.40 46.00 0.23 9.70 218.0
2 17 62.10 46.00 0.33 13.05 231.1
2 18 50.00 43.00 0.43 5.50 236.6
2 19 51.10 43.00 0.18 6.05 242.6
2 20 53.10 34.00 0.02 4.42 247.0
2 21 52.00 30.00 0.09 3.50 250.5
2 22 52.00 32.00 0.03 3.70 254.2
2 23 59.00 30.00 0.00 6.50 260.7
2 24 62.10 37.90 0.00 9.48 270.2
2 25 63.00 32.00 0.00 8.62 278.8
2 26 59.00 37.90 0.34 7.96 286.8
2 27 57.90 46.00 0.05 10.95 297.8
2 28 55.90 46.00 0.07 9.95 307.7
2 29 51.10 44.10 0.53 6.60 314.3
3 1 57.90 44.60 0.16 10.25 324.6
3 2 55.90 39.90 0.40 7.02 331.6
3 3 61.00 46.90 0.02 12.95 344.5
3 4 59.00 43.00 0.18 10.00 354.5
3 5 60.10 50.00 0.17 14.05 368.6
3 6 54.00 46.00 0.26 9.00 377.6
3 7 53.10 42.10 0.03 6.60 384.2
3 8 46.00 35.10 0.11 1.52 385.7
3 9 50.00 44.10 0.74 6.05 391.7
3 10 55.90 44.10 0.27 9.00 400.7
3 11 53.10 37.00 0.23 4.92 405.7
3 12 50.00 43.00 0.34 5.50 411.2
3 13 53.10 42.10 0.62 6.60 417.8
3 14 46.90 42.10 0.53 3.50 421.3
3 15 46.90 41.00 0.29 2.95 424.2
3 16 57.00 37.00 0.11 6.78 431.0
3 17 60.10 30.90 0.00 7.12 438.1
3 18 60.10 50.00 0.00 14.05 452.2
3 19 66.90 39.90 0.00 12.49 464.7
3 20 55.90 48.00 0.21 10.95 475.6
3 21 52.00 46.00 0.14 8.00 483.6
3 22 54.00 45.00 0.09 8.50 492.1
3 23 54.00 45.00 0.09 8.50 500.6
3 24 55.00 44.10 0.01 8.55 509.2
3 25 57.00 43.00 0.01 9.00 518.2
3 26 57.90 39.00 0.03 7.73 525.9
3 27 52.00 37.90 0.06 4.58 530.5
3 28 57.00 34.00 0.00 6.19 536.7
3 29 66.00 32.00 0.00 10.02 546.7
3 30 73.90 35.10 0.00 14.49 561.2
3 31 73.00 39.90 0.00 15.53 576.7
4 1 75.00 42.10 0.00 17.55 594.3
4 2 69.10 42.10 0.00 14.60 608.9
4 3 71.10 39.90 0.03 14.59 623.4
4 4 59.00 44.10 0.02 10.55 634.0
4 5 59.00 42.10 0.00 9.55 643.5
4 6 75.00 37.00 0.00 15.56 659.1
4 7 87.10 43.00 0.00 24.05 683.2
4 8 82.90 46.90 0.00 23.90 707.1
4 9 66.00 44.10 0.00 14.05 721.1
4 10 60.10 48.90 0.00 13.50 734.6
4 11 61.00 51.10 0.00 15.05 749.7
4 12 59.00 46.90 0.27 11.95 761.6
4 13 59.00 46.90 0.20 11.95 773.6
4 14 53.10 42.10 0.32 6.60 780.2
4 15 60.10 39.00 0.00 8.81 789.0
4 16 70.00 37.90 0.00 13.36 802.3
4 17 81.00 41.00 0.00 20.00 822.3
4 18 89.10 46.90 0.00 27.00 849.3
4 19 87.10 48.90 0.00 27.00 876.3 Peak pheromone trap catch
4 20 80.10 50.00 0.01 24.05 900.4
4 21 75.00 46.00 0.44 19.50 919.9
4 22 64.00 52.00 0.21 17.00 936.9
4 23 62.10 51.10 0.04 15.60 952.5 Peak female adult emergence
4 24 57.00 41.00 0.08 8.00 960.5
4 25 61.00 37.90 0.00 8.94 969.4
4 26 59.00 37.00 0.03 7.74 977.2
4 27 59.00 46.90 0.03 11.95 989.1
4 28 62.10 44.10 0.00 12.10 1001.2 Peak egg laying
4 29 57.90 48.90 0.18 12.40 1013.6
4 30 69.10 39.00 0.00 13.27 1026.9
5 1 81.00 43.00 0.00 21.00 1047.9
5 2 86.00 48.90 0.00 26.45 1074.3
5 3 73.00 53.10 0.09 22.05 1096.4
5 4 63.00 52.00 0.02 16.50 1112.9
5 5 71.10 52.00 0.00 20.55 1133.4
5 6 82.00 48.90 0.00 24.45 1157.9
5 7 84.90 52.00 0.00 27.45 1185.3
5 8 64.00 52.00 0.00 17.00 1202.3
5 9 70.00 50.00 0.00 19.00 1221.3
5 10 78.10 41.00 0.00 18.55 1239.9
5 11 82.90 45.00 0.00 22.95 1262.8
5 12 82.00 45.00 0.00 22.50 1285.3 Peak egg hatch
5 13 86.00 48.00 0.00 26.00 1311.3
5 14 57.90 54.00 0.35 14.95 1326.3
5 15 57.00 53.10 0.43 14.05 1340.3
5 16 62.10 53.10 0.00 16.60 1356.9
5 17 75.00 53.10 0.00 23.05 1380.0
5 18 73.00 48.00 0.00 19.50 1399.5
5 19 55.90 48.90 0.31 11.40 1410.9
5 20 66.00 48.20 0.00 16.10 1427.0
5 21 57.00 52.00 0.30 13.50 1440.5
5 22 63.00 51.10 0.07 16.05 1456.5
5 23 66.90 53.10 0.01 19.00 1475.5
5 24 71.10 53.10 0.00 21.10 1496.6
5 25 68.00 54.00 0.00 20.00 1516.6
5 26 61.00 53.10 0.02 16.05 1532.7
5 27 62.10 48.00 0.04 14.05 1546.7
5 28 71.10 45.00 0.00 17.05 1563.8
5 29 69.10 53.10 0.00 20.10 1583.9
5 30 77.00 48.00 0.00 21.50 1605.4
5 31 87.10 48.90 0.00 27.00 1632.4
6 1 80.10 55.90 0.16 27.00 1659.4
6 2 69.10 57.90 0.03 22.50 1681.9
6 3 87.10 55.00 0.00 30.05 1711.9
6 4 97.00 61.00 0.00 38.00 1749.9
6 5 98.10 62.10 0.00 39.10 1789.0
6 6 90.00 60.10 0.00 34.05 1823.1
6 7 89.10 57.90 0.00 32.50 1855.6
6 8 72.00 57.00 0.00 23.50 1879.1
6 9 61.00 54.00 0.11 16.50 1895.6
6 10 62.10 52.00 0.13 16.05 1911.6
6 11 66.00 50.00 0.01 17.00 1928.6
6 12 75.00 45.00 0.00 19.00 1947.6
6 13 64.00 48.00 0.02 15.00 1962.6
6 14 61.00 50.00 0.14 14.50 1977.1
6 15 64.00 48.90 0.07 15.45 1992.6
6 16 66.90 51.10 0.02 18.00 2010.6
6 17 69.10 53.10 0.00 20.10 2030.7
6 18 66.90 48.00 0.06 16.45 2047.1
6 19 77.00 45.00 0.00 20.00 2067.1
6 20 80.10 55.90 0.00 27.00 2094.1 Peak in density large larvae
6 21 73.00 55.90 0.00 23.45 2117.6
6 22 78.10 52.00 0.12 24.05 2141.6
6 23 66.00 55.00 0.58 19.50 2161.1
6 24 68.00 53.10 0.03 19.55 2180.7
6 25 78.10 48.00 0.00 22.05 2202.7
6 26 87.10 57.90 0.00 31.50 2234.2
6 27 86.00 60.10 0.00 32.05 2266.3
6 28 79.00 55.90 0.00 26.45 2292.7
6 29 77.00 57.00 0.00 26.00 2318.7
6 30 77.00 53.10 0.00 24.05 2342.8
7 1 81.00 53.10 0.00 26.05 2368.8
7 2 81.00 59.00 0.00 29.00 2397.8
7 3 75.20 57.00 0.00 25.10 2422.9
7 4 70.00 55.40 0.00 21.70 2444.6
7 5 72.00 51.80 0.00 20.90 2465.5
7 6 79.00 55.40 0.00 26.20 2491.7
7 7 72.00 60.80 0.08 25.40 2517.1
7 8 73.40 59.00 0.19 25.20 2542.3
7 9 72.00 57.20 0.27 23.60 2565.9
7 10 71.60 57.00 0.00 23.30 2589.2
7 11 73.90 57.00 0.00 24.45 2613.7
7 12 73.40 60.10 0.02 25.75 2639.4
7 13 77.00 59.00 0.00 27.00 2666.4
7 14 80.60 53.10 0.00 25.85 2692.3
7 15 72.00 48.90 0.00 19.45 2711.7
7 16 75.20 59.00 0.00 26.10 2737.8
7 17 73.00 59.00 0.00 25.00 2762.8
7 18 75.00 62.10 0.00 27.55 2790.4
7 19 77.00 60.80 0.00 27.90 2818.3
7 20 82.90 53.60 0.00 27.25 2845.5
7 21 87.10 57.00 0.06 31.05 2876.6
7 22 70.00 57.00 0.08 22.50 2899.1
7 23 73.90 60.10 0.00 26.00 2925.1
7 24 86.00 53.10 0.00 28.55 2953.6
7 25 87.10 60.80 0.00 32.95 2986.6
7 26 82.90 60.10 0.00 30.50 3017.1
7 27 88.00 59.00 0.00 32.50 3049.6
7 28 93.20 57.20 0.00 34.20 3083.8
7 29 93.00 63.00 0.00 37.00 3120.8
7 30 79.00 57.00 0.00 27.00 3147.8
7 31 75.20 57.00 0.00 25.10 3172.9
8 1 79.00 55.00 0.00 26.00 3198.9
8 2 75.20 57.00 0.00 25.10 3224.0
8 3 80.60 51.80 0.00 25.20 3249.2
8 4 89.60 62.10 0.00 34.85 3284.0
8 5 80.60 55.40 0.00 27.00 3311.0
8 6 73.90 53.10 0.00 22.50 3333.5
8 7 73.90 57.20 0.00 24.55 3358.1
8 8 69.80 57.20 0.13 22.50 3380.6
8 9 69.10 54.00 0.00 20.55 3401.1
8 10 80.60 57.00 0.00 27.80 3428.9
8 11 88.00 55.40 0.00 30.70 3459.6
8 12 97.00 60.10 0.00 37.55 3497.2
8 13 93.20 62.10 0.00 36.65 3533.8
8 14 86.00 59.00 0.00 31.50 3565.3
8 15 86.00 59.00 0.00 31.50 3596.8
8 16 84.90 59.00 0.00 30.95 3627.8
8 17 82.00 57.20 0.00 28.60 3656.4
8 18 98.60 57.00 0.00 36.80 3693.2
8 19 99.00 60.10 0.00 38.55 3731.7
8 20 99.00 60.10 0.00 38.55 3770.3
8 21 80.60 57.00 0.00 27.80 3798.1
8 22 73.90 48.20 0.00 20.05 3818.1
8 23 84.20 51.80 0.00 27.00 3845.1
8 24 91.40 53.10 0.00 31.25 3876.4
8 25 93.90 57.00 0.00 34.45 3910.8
8 26 96.80 57.20 0.00 36.00 3946.8
8 27 82.40 59.00 0.00 29.70 3976.5
8 28 84.00 53.60 0.00 27.80 4004.3
8 29 84.90 55.00 0.00 28.95 4033.3
8 30 72.00 57.00 0.00 23.50 4056.8
8 31 69.80 57.20 0.07 22.50 4079.3
9 1 69.80 55.00 0.06 21.40 4100.7
9 2 66.90 53.10 0.16 19.00 4119.7
9 3 68.00 48.00 0.01 17.00 4136.7
9 4 70.00 48.20 0.00 18.10 4154.8
9 5 71.60 48.00 0.04 18.80 4173.6
9 6 68.00 55.40 0.17 20.70 4194.3
9 7 73.40 55.40 0.00 23.40 4217.7
9 8 73.90 57.00 0.00 24.45 4242.1
9 9 84.00 48.20 0.00 25.10 4267.2
9 10 84.90 50.00 0.00 26.45 4293.7
9 11 72.00 50.00 0.00 20.00 4313.7
9 12 79.00 46.00 0.00 21.50 4335.2
9 13 81.00 48.90 0.00 23.95 4359.1
9 14 79.00 45.00 0.00 21.00 4380.1
9 15 80.60 50.00 0.00 24.30 4404.4
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 KVUO PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight 1988Location: 2016 KVUO Vancouver Pearson Fld Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME | Date | DDs | Event |
| 4-19-16 | 876 | Peak pheromone trap catch |
| 4-23-16 | 952 | Peak female adult emergence |
| 4-28-16 | 1001 | Peak egg laying |
| 5-12-16 | 1285 | Peak egg hatch |
| 6-20-16 | 2094 | Peak in density large larvae |
![degree-day graph of orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Knight 1988](/cgi-bin/ddplotj.pl?2521960)
