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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Knight 1988
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit
Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default)
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date
No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1
Ending date: 9 15
Model validation status: partly validated
Region of known use: Pacific Northwest
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 850 DDs after biofix: Peak pheromone trap catch
2. 950 DDs after biofix: Peak female adult emergence
3. 1000 DDs after biofix: Peak egg laying
4. 1270 DDs after biofix: Peak egg hatch
5. 2070 DDs after biofix: Peak in density large larvae
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2015 KVUO METAR Vancouver Pearson Fld WA Lat:45.6203 Long:-122.6564 Elev:26
mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
1 1 39.00 19.90 0.00 0.00 0.0 * START *
1 2 41.00 23.00 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 3 41.00 35.10 0.10 0.00 0.0
1 4 52.00 37.40 0.16 4.48 4.5
1 5 55.90 37.90 0.01 6.46 10.9
1 6 46.90 37.00 0.00 2.08 13.0
1 7 46.00 33.10 0.00 1.38 14.4
1 8 45.00 32.00 0.00 0.97 15.4
1 9 50.00 32.00 0.00 2.86 18.2
1 10 42.80 37.00 0.13 0.44 18.7
1 11 44.10 41.00 0.05 1.55 20.2
1 12 48.90 37.00 0.00 2.97 23.2
1 13 51.10 28.90 0.00 3.05 26.2
1 14 48.00 26.10 0.00 1.74 28.0
1 15 43.00 26.10 0.80 0.30 28.3
1 16 54.00 36.00 0.03 5.15 33.4
1 17 55.00 37.00 1.76 5.82 39.2
1 18 60.10 46.00 0.17 12.05 51.3
1 19 52.00 35.10 0.00 4.09 55.4
1 20 43.00 33.00 0.00 0.39 55.8
1 21 48.90 28.00 0.00 2.15 57.9
1 22 45.00 39.00 0.01 1.51 59.4
1 23 46.00 41.00 0.08 2.50 61.9
1 24 57.90 42.10 0.01 9.00 70.9
1 25 50.00 37.90 0.00 3.63 74.6
1 26 57.00 39.00 0.00 7.29 81.9
1 27 50.00 37.90 0.04 3.63 85.5
1 28 55.90 42.10 0.02 8.00 93.5
1 29 50.00 37.00 0.00 3.47 97.0
1 30 46.00 30.00 0.00 1.23 98.2
1 31 46.90 28.90 0.00 1.49 99.7
2 1 45.00 35.10 0.23 1.13 100.8
2 2 57.90 39.00 0.49 7.73 108.5
2 3 50.00 41.00 0.13 4.50 113.0
2 4 52.00 42.10 0.17 6.05 119.1
2 5 48.90 45.00 0.91 5.95 125.0
2 6 57.00 46.90 0.71 10.95 136.0
2 7 57.90 48.90 0.49 12.40 148.4
2 8 59.00 44.10 0.09 10.55 158.9
2 9 53.10 46.00 0.32 8.55 167.5
2 10 54.00 46.00 0.00 9.00 176.5
2 11 55.90 37.00 0.00 6.25 182.7
2 12 62.10 35.10 0.00 8.80 191.5
2 13 55.90 35.10 0.00 5.88 197.4
2 14 62.10 42.10 0.00 11.10 208.5
2 15 64.90 33.10 0.00 9.72 218.2
2 16 62.10 33.10 0.00 8.40 226.6
2 17 64.00 35.10 0.00 9.71 236.3
2 18 55.90 34.00 0.00 5.69 242.0
2 19 57.90 42.10 0.02 9.00 251.0
2 20 57.00 41.00 0.00 8.00 259.0
2 21 60.10 32.00 0.00 7.29 266.3
2 22 55.90 42.10 0.00 8.00 274.3
2 23 59.00 30.00 0.00 6.50 280.8
2 24 57.90 28.00 0.00 5.77 286.6
2 25 52.00 44.10 0.05 7.05 293.6
2 26 53.10 46.90 0.26 9.00 302.6
2 27 55.90 45.00 0.20 9.45 312.1
2 28 57.90 34.00 0.00 6.61 318.7
3 1 57.00 26.10 0.01 5.20 323.9
3 2 55.90 39.00 0.01 6.75 330.6
3 3 55.90 28.00 0.00 4.93 335.6
3 4 57.90 25.00 0.00 5.46 341.0
3 5 60.10 28.90 0.00 6.84 347.9
3 6 63.00 30.90 0.00 8.44 356.3
3 7 68.00 30.90 0.00 10.75 367.1
3 8 68.00 32.00 0.00 10.96 378.0
3 9 69.10 33.10 0.00 11.71 389.7
3 10 64.00 33.10 0.00 9.29 399.0
3 11 59.00 51.10 0.11 14.05 413.1
3 12 68.00 46.00 0.00 16.00 429.1
3 13 66.90 43.00 0.40 13.95 443.0
3 14 57.20 51.10 1.33 13.15 456.2
3 15 62.10 45.00 0.51 12.55 468.7
3 16 64.00 34.00 0.00 9.47 478.2
3 17 57.00 39.00 0.08 7.29 485.5
3 18 62.10 43.00 0.00 11.55 497.0
3 19 66.00 39.00 0.00 11.73 508.8
3 20 64.90 46.90 0.20 14.90 523.7
3 21 60.10 44.10 0.11 11.10 534.8
3 22 55.00 43.00 0.60 8.00 542.8
3 23 54.00 44.60 0.98 8.30 551.1
3 24 55.00 44.10 0.28 8.55 559.6
3 25 58.20 46.90 0.06 11.55 571.2 Hx
3 26 62.10 44.10 0.00 12.10 583.3
3 27 70.00 42.80 0.00 15.40 598.7
3 28 61.00 48.00 0.00 13.50 612.2
3 29 68.00 41.00 0.00 13.50 625.7
3 30 66.90 44.10 0.04 14.50 640.2
3 31 55.40 44.10 0.09 8.75 648.9
4 1 53.10 39.90 0.13 5.64 654.5
4 2 57.90 37.90 0.00 7.43 662.0
4 3 51.10 37.00 0.21 3.98 666.0
4 4 57.00 37.00 0.00 6.78 672.7
4 5 59.00 35.10 0.10 7.33 680.1
4 6 55.90 37.90 0.01 6.46 686.5
4 7 59.00 45.00 0.05 11.00 697.5
4 8 57.90 41.00 0.01 8.45 706.0
4 9 64.90 37.90 0.00 10.85 716.8
4 10 60.10 39.00 0.27 8.81 725.6
4 11 57.00 44.10 0.04 9.55 735.2
4 12 57.90 37.90 0.00 7.43 742.6
4 13 55.00 39.00 0.37 6.30 748.9
4 14 53.10 37.00 0.33 4.92 753.8
4 15 60.10 33.10 0.00 7.47 761.3
4 16 72.00 35.10 0.00 13.57 774.9
4 17 73.00 39.00 0.00 15.21 790.1
4 18 75.90 43.00 0.00 18.45 808.5
4 19 77.00 39.90 0.00 17.53 826.1
4 20 80.10 43.00 0.00 20.55 846.6
4 21 62.10 45.00 0.00 12.55 859.2 Peak pheromone trap catch
4 22 60.10 37.90 0.00 8.50 867.6
4 23 53.10 45.00 0.03 8.05 875.7
4 24 55.90 46.90 0.17 10.40 886.1
4 25 62.10 39.00 0.08 9.80 895.9
4 26 60.10 39.90 0.03 9.11 905.0
4 27 81.00 48.90 0.00 23.95 929.0
4 28 66.90 43.00 0.02 13.95 942.9
4 29 63.00 39.00 0.00 10.25 953.2 Peak female adult emergence
4 30 70.00 41.00 0.00 14.50 967.7
5 1 73.00 48.00 0.00 19.50 987.2
5 2 70.00 48.00 0.00 18.00 1005.2 Peak egg laying
5 3 75.90 39.90 0.00 16.98 1022.1
5 4 64.00 43.00 0.00 12.50 1034.6
5 5 64.00 45.00 0.06 13.50 1048.1
5 6 64.00 45.00 0.02 13.50 1061.6
5 7 71.10 39.00 0.00 14.26 1075.9
5 8 80.10 41.00 0.00 19.55 1095.5
5 9 82.90 45.00 0.00 22.95 1118.4
5 10 71.10 51.10 0.00 20.10 1138.5
5 11 61.00 50.00 0.49 14.50 1153.0
5 12 55.90 50.00 0.10 11.95 1165.0
5 13 63.00 50.00 0.01 15.50 1180.5
5 14 70.00 44.10 0.00 16.05 1196.5
5 15 62.10 50.00 0.00 15.05 1211.6
5 16 59.00 53.10 0.00 15.05 1226.6
5 17 70.00 53.10 0.00 20.55 1247.2
5 18 78.10 50.00 0.00 23.05 1270.2 Peak egg hatch
5 19 64.00 53.10 0.00 17.55 1287.8
5 20 75.00 54.00 0.00 23.50 1311.3
5 21 73.90 57.00 0.00 24.45 1335.7
5 22 59.00 55.90 0.00 16.45 1352.2
5 23 62.10 54.00 0.00 17.05 1369.2
5 24 66.90 54.00 0.00 19.45 1388.7
5 25 66.90 52.00 0.00 18.45 1407.1
5 26 71.10 54.00 0.00 21.55 1428.7
5 27 79.00 54.00 0.00 25.50 1454.2
5 28 84.00 53.10 0.00 27.55 1481.7
5 29 81.00 55.90 0.00 27.45 1509.2
5 30 77.00 52.00 0.00 23.50 1532.7
5 31 82.90 55.90 0.03 28.40 1561.1
6 1 63.00 55.00 0.23 18.00 1579.1
6 2 61.00 55.00 0.12 17.00 1596.1
6 3 66.00 55.00 0.01 19.50 1615.6
6 4 73.90 52.00 0.00 21.95 1637.5
6 5 84.90 55.00 0.00 28.95 1666.5
6 6 88.00 59.00 0.00 32.50 1699.0
6 7 90.00 55.90 0.00 31.95 1730.9
6 8 91.00 62.10 0.00 35.55 1766.5
6 9 89.10 59.00 0.00 33.05 1799.5
6 10 80.10 51.10 0.00 24.60 1824.1
6 11 79.00 48.90 0.00 22.95 1847.1
6 12 73.00 48.00 0.00 19.50 1866.6
6 13 75.90 50.00 0.00 21.95 1888.5
6 14 84.90 51.10 0.00 27.00 1915.5
6 15 89.10 57.00 0.00 32.05 1947.6
6 16 75.90 53.10 0.00 23.50 1971.1
6 17 81.00 50.00 0.00 24.50 1995.6
6 18 82.00 59.00 0.00 29.50 2025.1
6 19 75.00 57.90 0.00 25.45 2050.5
6 20 80.10 52.00 0.00 25.05 2075.6 Peak in density large larvae
6 21 82.90 59.00 0.00 29.95 2105.5
6 22 79.00 52.00 0.00 24.50 2130.0
6 23 84.00 55.90 0.00 28.95 2159.0
6 24 84.90 62.10 0.00 32.50 2191.5
6 25 91.00 59.00 0.00 34.00 2225.5
6 26 93.90 66.90 0.00 39.40 2264.9
6 27 93.00 69.10 0.00 40.05 2304.9
6 28 84.00 66.90 0.00 34.45 2339.4
6 29 90.00 61.00 0.00 34.50 2373.9
6 30 91.00 60.10 0.00 34.55 2408.4
7 1 95.00 61.00 0.00 37.00 2445.4
7 2 97.00 61.00 0.00 38.00 2483.4
7 3 95.00 63.00 0.00 38.00 2521.4
7 4 95.00 57.90 0.00 35.45 2556.9
7 5 95.00 64.00 0.00 38.50 2595.4
7 6 91.00 61.00 0.00 35.00 2630.4
7 7 87.10 59.00 0.00 32.05 2662.4
7 8 90.00 61.00 0.00 34.50 2696.9
7 9 86.00 62.10 0.00 33.05 2730.0
7 10 86.00 61.00 0.00 32.50 2762.5
7 11 72.00 64.40 0.00 27.20 2789.7
7 12 82.00 64.00 0.03 32.00 2821.7
7 13 81.00 62.10 0.01 30.55 2852.2
7 14 84.00 59.00 0.00 30.50 2882.7
7 15 82.00 55.00 0.00 27.50 2910.2
7 16 79.00 61.00 0.00 29.00 2939.2
7 17 87.10 57.00 0.00 31.05 2970.3
7 18 97.00 55.90 0.00 35.45 3005.7
7 19 97.00 62.10 0.00 38.55 3044.3
7 20 84.90 60.10 0.00 31.50 3075.8
7 21 75.00 61.00 0.00 27.00 3102.8
7 22 71.10 55.90 0.00 22.50 3125.3
7 23 80.10 57.00 0.00 27.55 3152.8
7 24 82.00 55.00 0.00 27.50 3180.3
7 25 70.00 57.00 0.16 22.50 3202.8
7 26 72.00 55.00 0.07 22.50 3225.3
7 27 77.00 51.10 0.00 23.05 3248.4
7 28 86.00 54.00 0.00 29.00 3277.4
7 29 96.10 57.00 0.00 35.55 3312.9
7 30 102.90 59.00 0.00 39.95 3352.9
7 31 100.90 60.10 0.00 39.50 3392.4
8 1 98.10 55.90 0.00 36.00 3428.4
8 2 79.00 64.90 0.00 30.95 3459.3
8 3 84.00 64.00 0.00 33.00 3492.3
8 4 82.00 59.00 0.00 29.50 3521.8
8 5 77.00 52.00 0.00 23.50 3545.3
8 6 79.00 53.10 0.00 25.05 3570.4
8 7 87.10 55.00 0.00 30.05 3600.4
8 8 80.10 59.00 0.00 28.55 3629.0
8 9 84.90 57.90 0.00 30.40 3659.4
8 10 87.10 62.10 0.00 33.60 3693.0
8 11 90.00 62.60 0.00 35.30 3728.3
8 12 90.00 64.90 0.00 36.45 3764.7
8 13 86.00 63.00 0.00 33.50 3798.2
8 14 73.90 64.00 0.01 27.95 3826.2
8 15 75.90 62.10 0.00 28.00 3854.2
8 16 82.90 57.00 0.00 28.95 3883.1
8 17 88.00 55.90 0.00 30.95 3914.1
8 18 96.10 55.90 0.00 35.00 3949.1
8 19 97.00 61.00 0.00 38.00 3987.1
8 20 79.00 59.00 0.00 28.00 4015.1
8 21 78.10 57.00 0.00 26.55 4041.6
8 22 86.00 53.10 0.00 28.55 4070.2
8 23 87.10 53.10 0.00 29.10 4099.3
8 24 82.00 57.00 0.00 28.50 4127.8
8 25 84.00 50.00 0.00 26.00 4153.8
8 26 89.10 53.10 0.00 30.10 4183.9
8 27 88.00 55.90 0.00 30.95 4214.8
8 28 82.00 63.00 0.20 31.50 4246.3
8 29 75.00 64.00 0.30 28.50 4274.8
8 30 73.90 60.10 0.04 26.00 4300.8
8 31 73.90 61.00 0.00 26.45 4327.3
9 1 75.00 57.20 0.13 25.10 4352.4
9 2 75.90 57.90 0.06 25.90 4378.3
9 3 66.90 46.90 0.00 15.90 4394.2
9 4 69.10 48.00 0.00 17.55 4411.7
9 5 66.90 48.90 0.05 16.90 4428.6
9 6 60.10 51.10 0.12 14.60 4443.2
9 7 75.90 51.10 0.00 22.50 4465.7
9 8 81.00 51.10 0.00 25.05 4490.8
9 9 81.00 57.00 0.00 28.00 4518.8
9 10 86.00 54.00 0.00 29.00 4547.8
9 11 93.90 54.00 0.00 32.95 4580.7
9 12 89.10 59.00 0.00 33.05 4613.8
9 13 75.00 55.90 0.00 24.45 4638.2
9 14 61.00 50.00 0.04 14.50 4652.7
9 15 64.00 50.00 0.00 16.00 4668.7
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 KVUO PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight 1988Location: 2015 KVUO Vancouver Pearson Fld Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME Date | DDs | Event |
4-21-15 | 859 | Peak pheromone trap catch |
4-29-15 | 953 | Peak female adult emergence |
5-2-15 | 1005 | Peak egg laying |
5-18-15 | 1270 | Peak egg hatch |
6-20-15 | 2076 | Peak in density large larvae |