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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Knight 1988
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit
Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default)
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date
No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1
Ending date: 9 15
Model validation status: partly validated
Region of known use: Pacific Northwest
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 850 DDs after biofix: Peak pheromone trap catch
2. 950 DDs after biofix: Peak female adult emergence
3. 1000 DDs after biofix: Peak egg laying
4. 1270 DDs after biofix: Peak egg hatch
5. 2070 DDs after biofix: Peak in density large larvae
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2020 KSLE METAR Salem: McNary Field OR Lat:44.9078 Long:-122.9950 Elev:210
mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
1 1 55.00 45.00 0.17 9.00 9.0 * START *
1 2 51.80 42.10 0.00 5.95 15.0
1 3 59.00 44.10 0.31 10.55 25.5
1 4 48.90 39.00 0.21 3.34 28.8
1 5 48.20 42.10 0.35 4.15 33.0
1 6 50.00 44.10 0.26 6.05 39.0
1 7 53.60 44.60 0.19 8.10 47.1
1 8 46.40 37.40 0.16 1.91 49.1
1 9 43.00 33.10 0.01 0.39 49.4
1 10 46.90 39.00 0.83 2.39 51.8
1 11 46.40 41.00 0.39 2.70 54.5
1 12 48.20 35.60 0.35 2.48 57.0
1 13 39.20 36.00 0.26 0.00 57.0
1 14 39.90 28.90 0.01 0.00 57.0
1 15 48.20 26.10 0.46 1.81 58.8
1 16 45.00 30.00 0.11 0.90 59.7
1 17 43.00 30.00 0.22 0.34 60.1
1 18 50.00 39.00 0.13 3.87 63.9
1 19 52.00 44.10 0.05 7.05 71.0
1 20 46.40 39.90 0.22 2.35 73.3
1 21 50.00 41.00 0.05 4.50 77.8
1 22 54.00 44.10 0.06 8.05 85.9
1 23 57.20 50.00 0.76 12.60 98.5
1 24 54.00 46.40 0.13 9.20 107.7
1 25 57.90 46.00 0.34 10.95 118.6
1 26 54.00 44.10 0.12 8.05 126.7
1 27 53.60 41.00 0.78 6.30 133.0
1 28 52.00 44.10 0.70 7.05 140.0
1 29 48.90 44.60 0.29 5.75 145.8
1 30 54.00 44.10 0.03 8.05 153.8
1 31 61.00 53.10 0.00 16.05 169.9
2 1 57.20 39.90 0.24 7.67 177.5
2 2 46.90 30.00 0.01 1.54 179.1
2 3 43.00 28.00 0.02 0.31 179.4
2 4 41.00 24.80 0.00 0.00 179.4
2 5 51.80 39.20 0.06 4.79 184.2
2 6 57.20 48.00 0.00 11.60 195.8
2 7 53.60 43.00 0.12 7.30 203.1
2 8 48.90 33.80 0.14 2.58 205.7
2 9 46.40 30.20 0.00 1.37 207.0
2 10 46.90 27.00 0.00 1.41 208.4
2 11 46.90 28.90 0.00 1.49 209.9
2 12 50.00 30.00 0.00 2.70 212.6
2 13 44.60 30.00 0.06 0.78 213.4
2 14 50.00 33.80 0.00 3.04 216.5
2 15 46.40 41.00 0.63 2.70 219.2
2 16 50.00 37.00 0.02 3.47 222.6
2 17 51.10 30.90 0.02 3.21 225.8
2 18 52.00 28.00 0.00 3.33 229.2
2 19 59.00 26.10 0.00 6.03 235.2
2 20 55.90 28.00 0.00 4.93 240.1
2 21 59.00 26.60 0.00 6.09 246.2
2 22 57.90 28.40 0.00 5.82 252.0
2 23 52.00 39.20 0.14 4.89 256.9
2 24 48.90 32.00 0.00 2.42 259.4
2 25 54.00 28.00 0.00 4.14 263.5
2 26 57.00 37.00 0.00 6.78 270.3
2 27 61.00 30.00 0.00 7.39 277.7
2 28 54.00 30.20 0.14 4.35 282.0
2 29 46.90 32.00 0.20 1.65 283.7
3 1 48.20 28.40 0.00 1.92 285.6
3 2 50.00 35.60 0.00 3.26 288.8
3 3 60.80 46.00 0.00 12.40 301.2
3 4 57.20 39.00 0.00 7.38 308.6
3 5 60.80 33.10 0.00 7.80 316.4
3 6 46.90 39.90 0.42 2.59 319.0
3 7 46.90 30.20 0.06 1.55 320.6
3 8 50.00 28.90 0.00 2.62 323.2
3 9 57.20 28.40 0.00 5.52 328.7
3 10 63.00 28.40 0.00 8.06 336.8
3 11 57.20 33.80 0.00 6.25 343.0
3 12 54.00 28.40 0.00 4.17 347.2
3 13 41.00 33.10 0.52 0.00 347.2
3 14 46.40 32.00 0.24 1.46 348.7
3 15 39.00 30.00 0.00 0.00 348.7
3 16 61.00 34.00 0.00 8.06 356.7
3 17 61.00 28.00 0.00 7.12 363.8
3 18 59.00 37.00 0.00 7.74 371.6
3 19 63.00 32.00 0.00 8.62 380.2
3 20 64.90 33.80 0.00 9.86 390.0
3 21 60.80 33.80 0.00 7.92 398.0
3 22 64.40 32.00 0.02 9.27 407.2
3 23 52.00 42.10 0.10 6.05 413.3
3 24 48.90 35.10 0.25 2.72 416.0
3 25 53.10 35.10 0.00 4.59 420.6
3 26 51.80 33.10 0.01 3.74 424.3
3 27 50.00 39.20 0.15 3.92 428.3
3 28 53.60 46.00 0.20 8.80 437.1
3 29 57.90 46.40 0.26 11.15 448.2
3 30 50.00 42.80 0.59 5.40 453.6
3 31 52.00 39.00 0.10 4.84 458.4
4 1 46.90 37.40 0.24 2.13 460.6
4 2 50.00 33.10 0.01 2.97 463.5
4 3 51.80 30.20 0.27 3.44 467.0
4 4 48.90 37.00 0.14 2.97 470.0
4 5 64.00 42.10 0.02 12.05 482.0
4 6 62.60 42.80 0.00 11.70 493.7
4 7 61.00 37.40 0.00 8.81 502.5
4 8 70.00 35.10 0.00 12.60 515.1
4 9 75.90 37.90 0.00 16.28 531.4
4 10 71.60 39.20 0.00 14.58 546.0
4 11 63.00 42.10 0.00 11.55 557.5
4 12 64.90 35.10 0.00 10.14 567.7
4 13 66.20 32.00 0.00 10.12 577.8
4 14 69.80 33.80 0.00 12.20 590.0
4 15 62.60 41.00 0.00 10.80 600.8
4 16 70.00 42.10 0.00 15.05 615.8
4 17 77.00 35.10 0.00 16.00 631.8
4 18 52.00 42.80 0.11 6.40 638.2
4 19 62.60 39.00 0.00 10.05 648.3
4 20 70.00 37.00 0.00 13.10 661.4
4 21 57.90 43.00 0.01 9.45 670.8
4 22 57.90 42.80 0.28 9.35 680.2
4 23 64.40 46.40 0.00 14.40 694.6
4 24 63.00 50.00 0.10 15.50 710.1
4 25 66.90 43.00 0.13 13.95 724.0
4 26 66.90 37.00 0.08 11.58 735.6
4 27 66.90 46.40 0.15 15.65 751.2
4 28 73.90 48.00 0.00 19.95 771.2
4 29 69.80 50.00 0.01 18.90 790.1
4 30 64.40 43.00 0.00 12.70 802.8
5 1 60.80 37.00 0.09 8.61 811.4
5 2 57.20 44.60 0.48 9.90 821.3
5 3 61.00 41.00 0.08 10.00 831.3
5 4 68.00 35.60 0.01 11.75 843.1
5 5 71.60 46.00 0.17 17.80 860.9 Peak pheromone trap catch
5 6 64.00 44.60 0.01 13.30 874.2
5 7 73.90 39.00 0.00 15.65 889.8
5 8 82.90 46.00 0.00 23.45 913.3
5 9 84.90 48.00 0.00 25.45 938.7
5 10 84.90 51.10 0.00 27.00 965.7 Peak female adult emergence
5 11 66.90 48.00 0.01 16.45 982.2
5 12 61.00 50.00 0.19 14.50 996.7
5 13 60.80 46.40 0.06 12.60 1009.3 Peak egg laying
5 14 55.90 48.20 0.38 11.05 1020.3
5 15 69.80 50.00 0.00 18.90 1039.2
5 16 68.00 53.10 0.20 19.55 1058.8
5 17 68.00 46.00 0.28 16.00 1074.8
5 18 60.80 51.10 0.41 14.95 1089.7
5 19 64.40 50.00 0.00 16.20 1105.9
5 20 59.00 50.00 0.04 13.50 1119.4
5 21 59.00 46.90 0.14 11.95 1131.4
5 22 63.00 42.10 0.05 11.55 1142.9
5 23 64.40 41.00 0.00 11.70 1154.6
5 24 73.90 44.60 0.00 18.25 1172.9
5 25 71.60 51.10 0.02 20.35 1193.2
5 26 75.20 51.10 0.00 22.15 1215.4
5 27 82.40 48.20 0.00 24.30 1239.7
5 28 90.00 52.00 0.00 30.00 1269.7
5 29 82.40 53.10 0.00 26.75 1296.4 Peak egg hatch
5 30 62.60 51.10 0.32 15.85 1312.3
5 31 66.00 50.00 0.00 17.00 1329.3
6 1 72.00 42.10 0.00 16.05 1345.3
6 2 78.10 46.00 0.00 21.05 1366.4
6 3 75.20 48.20 0.00 20.70 1387.1
6 4 72.00 51.10 0.00 20.55 1407.6
6 5 69.80 51.80 0.00 19.80 1427.4
6 6 59.00 46.00 0.35 11.50 1438.9
6 7 62.60 46.00 0.06 13.30 1452.2
6 8 64.00 48.20 0.22 15.10 1467.3
6 9 64.40 50.00 0.14 16.20 1483.5
6 10 77.00 55.40 0.00 25.20 1508.7
6 11 73.90 57.00 0.01 24.45 1533.2
6 12 60.80 53.10 0.05 15.95 1549.1
6 13 61.00 50.00 0.28 14.50 1563.6
6 14 66.90 46.40 0.06 15.65 1579.3
6 15 63.00 51.80 0.07 16.40 1595.7
6 16 64.90 51.10 0.03 17.00 1612.7
6 17 71.60 48.00 0.00 18.80 1631.5
6 18 80.60 48.20 0.00 23.40 1654.9
6 19 86.00 51.80 0.00 27.90 1682.8
6 20 71.10 57.00 0.14 23.05 1705.8
6 21 75.90 55.90 0.00 24.90 1730.7
6 22 84.90 53.10 0.00 28.00 1758.7
6 23 90.00 57.20 0.00 32.60 1791.3
6 24 79.00 57.90 0.00 27.45 1818.8
6 25 84.00 53.60 0.00 27.80 1846.6
6 26 88.00 53.60 0.00 29.80 1876.4
6 27 73.00 55.90 0.00 23.45 1899.8
6 28 69.80 55.00 0.01 21.40 1921.2
6 29 75.20 51.10 0.00 22.15 1943.4
6 30 71.10 55.00 0.00 22.05 1965.4
7 1 68.00 50.00 0.00 18.00 1983.4
7 2 72.00 50.00 0.00 20.00 2003.4
7 3 75.00 50.00 0.00 21.50 2024.9
7 4 75.90 53.10 0.00 23.50 2048.4
7 5 75.20 51.10 0.00 22.15 2070.6 Peak in density large larvae
7 6 68.00 53.10 0.00 19.55 2090.1
7 7 72.00 55.00 0.00 22.50 2112.6
7 8 77.00 55.40 0.00 25.20 2137.8
7 9 77.00 51.10 0.00 23.05 2160.9
7 10 81.00 57.20 0.00 28.10 2189.0
7 11 77.00 51.80 0.00 23.40 2212.4
7 12 80.60 55.00 0.00 26.80 2239.2
7 13 82.00 50.00 0.00 25.00 2264.2
7 14 87.80 50.00 0.00 27.90 2292.1
7 15 90.00 55.00 0.00 31.50 2323.6
7 16 88.00 55.00 0.00 30.50 2354.1
7 17 78.10 55.90 0.00 26.00 2380.1
7 18 86.00 50.00 0.00 27.00 2407.1
7 19 91.90 55.00 0.00 32.45 2439.5
7 20 93.20 57.20 0.00 34.20 2473.7
7 21 91.40 59.00 0.00 34.20 2507.9
7 22 84.20 60.10 0.00 31.15 2539.1
7 23 79.00 55.40 0.00 26.20 2565.3
7 24 73.40 53.10 0.00 22.25 2587.5
7 25 82.40 50.00 0.00 25.20 2612.7
7 26 100.40 55.00 0.00 36.70 2649.4
7 27 95.00 60.80 0.00 36.90 2686.3
7 28 91.40 59.00 0.00 34.20 2720.5
7 29 93.90 60.80 0.00 36.35 2756.9
7 30 97.00 59.00 0.00 37.00 2793.9
7 31 87.10 55.40 0.00 30.25 2824.1
8 1 84.20 59.00 0.00 30.60 2854.7
8 2 86.00 55.40 0.00 29.70 2884.4
8 3 84.20 53.60 0.00 27.90 2912.3
8 4 88.00 57.00 0.00 31.50 2943.8
8 5 84.90 57.00 0.00 29.95 2973.8
8 6 75.90 53.10 0.09 23.50 2997.3
8 7 79.00 48.00 0.00 22.50 3019.8
8 8 79.00 53.60 0.00 25.30 3045.1
8 9 84.90 50.00 0.00 26.45 3071.5
8 10 91.90 57.00 0.00 33.45 3105.0
8 11 82.90 46.90 0.00 23.90 3128.9
8 12 75.20 53.10 0.00 23.15 3152.0
8 13 79.00 51.10 0.00 24.05 3176.1
8 14 89.60 53.60 0.00 30.60 3206.7
8 15 100.40 55.00 0.00 36.70 3243.4
8 16 93.00 64.90 0.00 37.95 3281.3
8 17 93.20 60.10 0.00 35.65 3317.0
8 18 86.00 60.10 0.00 32.05 3349.0
8 19 88.00 54.00 0.00 30.00 3379.0
8 20 82.90 59.00 0.01 29.95 3409.0
8 21 79.00 61.00 0.01 29.00 3438.0
8 22 80.60 53.60 0.00 26.10 3464.1
8 23 84.90 51.80 0.00 27.35 3491.4
8 24 82.90 53.10 0.00 27.00 3518.4
8 25 82.40 55.00 0.00 27.70 3546.1
8 26 84.20 51.10 0.00 26.65 3572.8
8 27 84.90 48.00 0.00 25.45 3598.2
8 28 84.90 50.00 0.00 26.45 3624.7
8 29 80.10 51.80 0.00 24.95 3649.6
8 30 78.80 46.00 0.02 21.40 3671.0
8 31 78.80 53.60 0.04 25.20 3696.2
9 1 89.60 57.00 0.00 32.30 3728.5
9 2 93.20 60.10 0.00 35.65 3764.2
9 3 96.80 60.80 0.00 37.80 3802.0
9 4 84.20 54.00 0.00 28.10 3830.1
9 5 77.00 51.10 0.00 23.05 3853.1
9 6 88.00 51.10 0.00 28.55 3881.7
9 7 89.60 57.00 0.00 32.30 3914.0
9 8 77.00 66.00 0.00 30.50 3944.5
9 9 81.00 62.10 0.00 30.55 3975.0
9 10 66.90 53.10 0.00 19.00 3994.0
9 11 68.00 46.40 0.00 16.20 4010.2
9 12 64.40 46.00 0.00 14.20 4024.4
9 13 64.40 46.00 0.00 14.20 4038.6
9 14 77.00 50.00 0.00 22.50 4061.1
9 15 75.90 55.00 0.00 24.45 4085.6
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 KSLE PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight 1988Location: 2020 KSLE Salem: McNary Field Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME Date | DDs | Event |
5-5-20 | 861 | Peak pheromone trap catch |
5-10-20 | 966 | Peak female adult emergence |
5-13-20 | 1009 | Peak egg laying |
5-29-20 | 1296 | Peak egg hatch |
7-5-20 | 2071 | Peak in density large larvae |