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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Knight 1988
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit
Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default)
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date
No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1
Ending date: 9 15
Model validation status: partly validated
Region of known use: Pacific Northwest
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 850 DDs after biofix: Peak pheromone trap catch
2. 950 DDs after biofix: Peak female adult emergence
3. 1000 DDs after biofix: Peak egg laying
4. 1270 DDs after biofix: Peak egg hatch
5. 2070 DDs after biofix: Peak in density large larvae
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2019 KSLE METAR Salem: McNary Field OR Lat:44.9078 Long:-122.9950 Elev:210
mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
1 1 43.00 24.80 0.00 0.28 0.3 * START *
1 2 48.00 26.10 0.00 1.74 2.0
1 3 54.00 44.10 0.12 8.05 10.1
1 4 52.00 39.90 0.06 5.09 15.2
1 5 50.00 37.00 0.10 3.47 18.6
1 6 46.40 37.00 0.21 1.86 20.5
1 7 48.90 35.60 0.15 2.78 23.3
1 8 46.90 39.20 0.11 2.43 25.7
1 9 53.60 37.40 0.19 5.24 30.9
1 10 60.80 41.00 0.08 9.90 40.8
1 11 52.00 36.00 0.00 4.23 45.1
1 12 54.00 30.20 0.00 4.35 49.4
1 13 53.60 28.00 0.00 3.97 53.4
1 14 51.80 26.60 0.00 3.15 56.6
1 15 45.00 30.00 0.00 0.90 57.5
1 16 44.60 32.00 0.13 0.84 58.3
1 17 53.60 35.10 0.36 4.81 63.1
1 18 53.60 39.20 0.85 5.67 68.8
1 19 55.00 42.80 0.04 7.90 76.7
1 20 45.00 37.90 0.43 1.36 78.1
1 21 48.20 35.10 0.00 2.42 80.5
1 22 48.90 39.20 0.13 3.39 83.9
1 23 55.40 42.80 0.05 8.10 92.0
1 24 53.60 33.80 0.00 4.62 96.6
1 25 51.80 36.00 0.00 4.14 100.7
1 26 41.00 30.00 0.00 0.00 100.7
1 27 41.00 37.00 0.00 0.00 100.7
1 28 57.00 35.60 0.00 6.48 107.2
1 29 55.90 32.00 0.00 5.40 112.6
1 30 54.00 28.40 0.00 4.17 116.8
1 31 55.90 28.00 0.03 4.93 121.7
2 1 54.00 39.20 0.13 5.87 127.6
2 2 51.80 39.90 0.17 4.99 132.6
2 3 46.40 37.00 0.16 1.86 134.4
2 4 41.00 33.10 0.15 0.00 134.4
2 5 37.40 30.00 0.02 0.00 134.4
2 6 39.20 26.10 0.00 0.00 134.4
2 7 37.90 24.10 0.00 0.00 134.4
2 8 41.00 30.00 0.58 0.00 134.4
2 9 43.00 28.90 0.22 0.32 134.7
2 10 37.90 28.00 0.30 0.00 134.7
2 11 46.90 37.00 1.04 2.08 136.8
2 12 46.90 41.00 0.87 2.95 139.8
2 13 46.40 39.20 0.03 2.19 142.0
2 14 46.40 37.40 0.23 1.91 143.9
2 15 48.20 39.20 0.33 3.05 146.9
2 16 46.40 36.00 0.46 1.76 148.7
2 17 44.60 30.20 0.10 0.78 149.5
2 18 46.40 26.60 0.00 1.23 150.7
2 19 44.60 37.40 0.19 1.15 151.8
2 20 48.20 30.00 0.32 2.01 153.9
2 21 48.90 30.20 0.00 2.29 156.1
2 22 46.40 30.00 0.42 1.36 157.5
2 23 46.40 36.00 0.76 1.76 159.3
2 24 43.00 35.60 0.36 0.45 159.7
2 25 39.20 30.20 0.13 0.00 159.7
2 26 43.00 26.10 0.06 0.30 160.0
2 27 37.90 28.40 0.08 0.00 160.0
2 28 41.00 28.00 0.05 0.00 160.0
3 1 53.60 32.00 0.01 4.39 164.4
3 2 51.10 30.00 0.00 3.14 167.5
3 3 46.90 28.00 0.00 1.45 169.0
3 4 46.90 24.80 0.00 1.33 170.3
3 5 45.00 24.80 0.00 0.77 171.1
3 6 37.40 32.00 0.22 0.00 171.1
3 7 48.20 32.00 0.08 2.14 173.2
3 8 43.00 32.00 0.07 0.37 173.6
3 9 50.00 33.10 0.12 2.97 176.6
3 10 54.00 30.00 0.00 4.33 180.9
3 11 61.00 26.10 0.25 6.89 187.8
3 12 51.80 39.20 0.06 4.79 192.6
3 13 57.00 37.00 0.00 6.78 199.4
3 14 59.00 30.20 0.00 6.53 205.9
3 15 63.00 30.00 0.00 8.30 214.2
3 16 62.60 33.10 0.00 8.64 222.8
3 17 71.60 35.10 0.00 13.37 236.2
3 18 75.90 39.90 0.00 16.98 253.2
3 19 77.00 42.80 0.00 18.90 272.1
3 20 75.20 43.00 0.00 18.10 290.2
3 21 55.90 39.90 0.02 7.02 297.2
3 22 55.40 34.00 0.28 5.46 302.7
3 23 57.20 39.20 0.11 7.44 310.1
3 24 62.60 35.60 0.00 9.15 319.2
3 25 52.00 42.10 0.08 6.05 325.3
3 26 61.00 33.10 0.00 7.89 333.2
3 27 57.20 39.90 0.41 7.67 340.9
3 28 62.60 41.00 0.09 10.80 351.7
3 29 63.00 42.10 0.00 11.55 363.2
3 30 68.00 37.40 0.00 12.23 375.4
3 31 69.10 37.00 0.00 12.66 388.1
4 1 61.00 51.10 0.30 15.05 403.1
4 2 62.60 51.80 0.32 16.20 419.3
4 3 59.00 46.40 0.01 11.70 431.0
4 4 61.00 46.40 0.15 12.70 443.7
4 5 55.40 46.00 0.43 9.70 453.4
4 6 55.40 44.60 1.66 9.00 462.4
4 7 55.90 48.00 0.75 10.95 473.4
4 8 57.90 48.20 0.35 12.05 485.4
4 9 57.90 48.00 0.08 11.95 497.4
4 10 54.00 46.40 0.15 9.20 506.6
4 11 53.60 48.20 0.13 9.90 516.5
4 12 61.00 43.00 0.19 11.00 527.5
4 13 52.00 41.00 0.18 5.50 533.0
4 14 54.00 39.00 0.05 5.81 538.8
4 15 51.80 35.10 0.19 4.00 542.8
4 16 61.00 44.10 0.04 11.55 554.4
4 17 66.20 50.00 0.14 17.10 571.5
4 18 78.80 46.40 0.00 21.60 593.1
4 19 63.00 50.00 0.43 15.50 608.6
4 20 64.00 48.00 0.48 15.00 623.6
4 21 62.60 43.00 0.00 11.80 635.4
4 22 66.90 37.40 0.00 11.69 647.0
4 23 66.90 48.90 0.00 16.90 663.9
4 24 66.00 44.60 0.00 14.30 678.2
4 25 72.00 42.80 0.00 16.40 694.6
4 26 69.10 43.00 0.00 15.05 709.7
4 27 59.00 37.40 0.00 7.83 717.5
4 28 66.20 32.00 0.00 10.12 727.6
4 29 66.90 35.60 0.00 11.22 738.9
4 30 68.00 39.00 0.00 12.72 751.6
5 1 68.00 35.60 0.00 11.75 763.3
5 2 64.40 37.40 0.00 10.47 773.8
5 3 70.00 39.20 0.00 13.79 787.6
5 4 73.40 42.10 0.00 16.75 804.3
5 5 77.00 44.10 0.00 19.55 823.9
5 6 82.40 44.10 0.00 22.25 846.1
5 7 77.00 45.00 0.00 20.00 866.1 Peak pheromone trap catch
5 8 75.90 44.10 0.00 19.00 885.1
5 9 86.00 51.10 0.00 27.55 912.7
5 10 87.80 44.60 0.00 25.20 937.9
5 11 82.90 48.00 0.00 24.45 962.3 Peak female adult emergence
5 12 73.90 44.60 0.00 18.25 980.6
5 13 68.00 44.10 0.00 15.05 995.6
5 14 60.80 50.00 0.11 14.40 1010.0 Peak egg laying
5 15 61.00 48.00 0.04 13.50 1023.5
5 16 61.00 50.00 0.07 14.50 1038.0
5 17 61.00 50.00 0.04 14.50 1052.5
5 18 71.60 48.20 0.70 18.90 1071.4
5 19 63.00 48.00 1.59 14.50 1085.9
5 20 66.20 48.20 0.04 16.20 1102.1
5 21 66.00 50.00 0.04 17.00 1119.1
5 22 72.00 46.40 0.15 18.20 1137.3
5 23 75.90 50.00 0.00 21.95 1159.3
5 24 63.00 48.00 0.01 14.50 1173.8
5 25 55.90 46.40 0.52 10.15 1183.9
5 26 73.90 46.40 0.20 19.15 1203.1
5 27 64.90 53.10 0.00 18.00 1221.1
5 28 66.90 51.10 0.00 18.00 1239.1
5 29 77.00 46.40 0.00 20.70 1259.8
5 30 79.00 48.00 0.00 22.50 1282.3 Peak egg hatch
5 31 81.00 51.10 0.00 25.05 1307.3
6 1 82.40 48.20 0.00 24.30 1331.6
6 2 81.00 51.10 0.00 25.05 1356.7
6 3 73.90 48.00 0.00 19.95 1376.6
6 4 79.00 46.40 0.00 21.70 1398.3
6 5 69.80 51.10 0.00 19.45 1417.8
6 6 63.00 50.00 0.03 15.50 1433.3
6 7 64.90 44.60 0.04 13.75 1447.0
6 8 68.00 44.10 0.01 15.05 1462.1
6 9 82.40 46.40 0.00 23.40 1485.5
6 10 87.80 53.60 0.00 29.70 1515.2
6 11 96.80 55.90 0.00 35.35 1550.5
6 12 97.00 60.10 0.00 37.55 1588.1
6 13 87.80 55.00 0.00 30.40 1618.5
6 14 77.00 50.00 0.00 22.50 1641.0
6 15 78.80 50.00 0.00 23.40 1664.4
6 16 82.40 53.60 0.00 27.00 1691.4
6 17 82.90 53.10 0.00 27.00 1718.4
6 18 77.00 53.10 0.00 24.05 1742.4
6 19 72.00 46.40 0.00 18.20 1760.6
6 20 69.80 51.10 0.00 19.45 1780.1
6 21 72.00 53.60 0.00 21.80 1801.9
6 22 73.90 48.20 0.00 20.05 1821.9
6 23 73.40 53.60 0.00 22.50 1844.4
6 24 73.90 51.80 0.00 21.85 1866.3
6 25 73.90 53.10 0.00 22.50 1888.8
6 26 75.20 53.10 0.03 23.15 1911.9
6 27 61.00 51.10 0.32 15.05 1927.0
6 28 73.90 46.40 0.00 19.15 1946.1
6 29 80.60 48.20 0.00 23.40 1969.5
6 30 82.90 50.00 0.00 25.45 1995.0
7 1 75.20 54.00 0.00 23.60 2018.6
7 2 70.00 55.40 0.00 21.70 2040.3
7 3 75.20 57.00 0.00 25.10 2065.4
7 4 82.40 51.80 0.00 26.10 2091.5 Peak in density large larvae
7 5 77.00 55.40 0.00 25.20 2116.7
7 6 68.00 57.20 0.00 21.60 2138.3
7 7 77.00 55.00 0.00 25.00 2163.3
7 8 82.00 53.10 0.00 26.55 2189.8
7 9 72.00 59.00 0.33 24.50 2214.3
7 10 73.90 60.80 0.01 26.35 2240.7
7 11 82.40 57.20 0.00 28.80 2269.5
7 12 84.90 59.00 0.00 30.95 2300.4
7 13 82.90 61.00 0.00 30.95 2331.4
7 14 84.90 59.00 0.00 30.95 2362.3
7 15 75.90 60.10 0.08 27.00 2389.3
7 16 82.40 57.90 0.00 29.15 2418.5
7 17 77.00 57.00 0.00 26.00 2444.5
7 18 77.00 57.90 0.00 26.45 2470.9
7 19 75.90 48.00 0.00 20.95 2491.9
7 20 86.00 50.00 0.00 27.00 2518.9
7 21 88.00 53.60 0.00 29.80 2548.7
7 22 86.00 53.60 0.00 28.80 2577.5
7 23 78.80 53.10 0.00 24.95 2602.4
7 24 81.00 51.80 0.00 25.40 2627.8
7 25 91.90 51.80 0.00 30.85 2658.7
7 26 93.20 57.00 0.00 34.10 2692.8
7 27 81.00 57.00 0.00 28.00 2720.8
7 28 84.90 55.00 0.00 28.95 2749.7
7 29 82.90 53.60 0.00 27.25 2777.0
7 30 79.00 57.20 0.00 27.10 2804.1
7 31 86.00 53.10 0.00 28.55 2832.6
8 1 89.60 53.60 0.00 30.60 2863.2
8 2 80.60 59.00 0.01 28.80 2892.0
8 3 89.10 62.10 0.00 34.60 2926.6
8 4 91.90 57.90 0.00 33.90 2960.5
8 5 90.00 60.10 0.00 34.05 2994.6
8 6 86.00 57.20 0.00 30.60 3025.2
8 7 77.00 57.00 0.00 26.00 3051.2
8 8 71.60 60.10 0.00 24.85 3076.0
8 9 78.10 59.00 0.00 27.55 3103.6
8 10 73.40 55.00 0.08 23.20 3126.8
8 11 78.10 57.00 0.00 26.55 3153.3
8 12 84.20 51.80 0.00 27.00 3180.3
8 13 90.00 55.00 0.00 31.50 3211.8
8 14 89.60 55.40 0.00 31.50 3243.3
8 15 84.20 55.40 0.00 28.80 3272.1
8 16 79.00 57.00 0.00 27.00 3299.1
8 17 75.90 57.20 0.00 25.55 3324.7
8 18 82.40 59.00 0.00 29.70 3354.4
8 19 82.40 54.00 0.00 27.20 3381.6
8 20 84.90 53.60 0.00 28.25 3409.8
8 21 69.10 53.60 0.06 20.35 3430.2
8 22 75.90 55.00 0.05 24.45 3454.6
8 23 84.20 51.10 0.00 26.65 3481.3
8 24 82.90 50.00 0.00 25.45 3506.7
8 25 80.60 55.00 0.00 26.80 3533.5
8 26 87.80 53.10 0.00 29.45 3563.0
8 27 100.00 53.10 0.00 35.55 3598.5
8 28 96.80 55.90 0.17 35.35 3633.9
8 29 86.00 62.10 1.79 33.05 3666.9
8 30 80.60 60.10 0.00 29.35 3696.3
8 31 86.00 53.60 0.00 28.80 3725.1
9 1 82.90 60.10 0.00 30.50 3755.6
9 2 82.90 53.60 0.00 27.25 3782.8
9 3 82.90 53.60 0.00 27.25 3810.1
9 4 81.00 57.00 0.00 28.00 3838.1
9 5 91.00 57.20 0.00 33.10 3871.2
9 6 82.00 60.10 0.00 30.05 3901.2
9 7 66.90 61.00 0.01 22.95 3924.2
9 8 68.00 59.00 0.25 22.50 3946.7
9 9 66.90 55.90 0.07 20.40 3967.1
9 10 73.00 53.60 0.96 22.30 3989.4
9 11 75.20 51.80 0.00 22.50 4011.9
9 12 82.40 50.00 0.00 25.20 4037.1
9 13 75.20 57.90 0.01 25.55 4062.6
9 14 77.00 53.10 0.00 24.05 4086.7
9 15 62.60 57.00 0.58 18.80 4105.5
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 KSLE PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight 1988Location: 2019 KSLE Salem: McNary Field Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME | Date | DDs | Event |
| 5-7-19 | 866 | Peak pheromone trap catch |
| 5-11-19 | 962 | Peak female adult emergence |
| 5-14-19 | 1010 | Peak egg laying |
| 5-30-19 | 1282 | Peak egg hatch |
| 7-4-19 | 2091 | Peak in density large larvae |
![degree-day graph of orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Knight 1988](/cgi-bin/ddplotj.pl?723733)
