Online Phenology Models and Degree-day Calculator
immaturedamagepupaadult
orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
insect model of Knight (1988)


Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
	Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================ Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Type: insect Model source/other links: Knight (1988) Calculation method: single sine Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default) Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1 Ending date: 9 15 Model validation status: partly validated Region of known use: Pacific Northwest ==============================EVENTS TABLE================================ 1. 850 DDs after biofix: peak pheromone trap catch 2. 950 DDs after biofix: peak female adult emergence 3. 1000 DDs after biofix: peak egg laying 4. 1270 DDs after biofix: peak egg hatch 5. 2070 DDs after biofix: peak in density large larvae ==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================ Weather station: 2018 KSLE METAR Salem: McNary Field OR Lat:44.9078 Long:-122.9950 Elev:210 mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event -- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- ------- 1 1 46.40 26.60 0.00 1.23 1.2 * START * 1 2 46.40 32.00 0.00 1.46 2.7 1 3 46.90 33.80 0.00 1.77 4.5 1 4 46.90 33.80 0.13 1.77 6.2 1 5 54.00 39.20 0.46 5.87 12.1 1 6 51.80 35.60 1.12 4.07 16.2 1 7 48.20 37.40 0.01 2.72 18.9 1 8 45.00 35.60 0.41 1.16 20.1 1 9 51.80 42.10 0.23 5.95 26.0 1 10 50.00 42.10 0.09 5.05 31.1 1 11 55.90 48.20 0.97 11.05 42.1 1 12 55.90 48.90 0.64 11.40 53.5 1 13 60.80 37.90 0.00 8.84 62.3 1 14 60.80 35.10 0.00 8.18 70.5 1 15 57.20 35.10 0.18 6.48 77.0 1 16 55.90 42.10 0.02 8.00 85.0 1 17 63.00 41.00 0.91 11.00 96.0 1 18 51.80 42.10 0.50 5.95 102.0 1 19 48.20 41.00 0.04 3.60 105.6 1 20 48.90 41.00 0.01 3.95 109.5 1 21 51.80 41.00 0.09 5.40 114.9 1 22 51.80 37.40 0.24 4.38 119.3 1 23 52.00 39.20 1.28 4.89 124.2 1 24 52.00 37.90 0.32 4.58 128.8 1 25 46.90 37.00 0.33 2.08 130.8 1 26 46.90 39.00 0.23 2.39 133.2 1 27 53.60 42.80 0.30 7.20 140.4 1 28 62.60 48.00 0.00 14.30 154.7 1 29 57.20 46.00 0.57 10.60 165.3 1 30 52.00 39.00 0.47 4.84 170.2 1 31 48.90 37.40 0.00 3.03 173.2 2 1 53.60 39.20 0.04 5.67 178.9 2 2 61.00 42.80 0.01 10.90 189.8 2 3 60.80 44.60 0.01 11.70 201.5 2 4 61.00 44.10 0.00 11.55 213.0 2 5 60.80 37.00 0.00 8.61 221.6 2 6 57.90 33.80 0.00 6.58 228.2 2 7 55.40 35.10 0.00 5.64 233.9 2 8 57.90 35.60 0.00 6.91 240.8 2 9 52.00 42.10 0.00 6.05 246.8 2 10 50.00 35.10 0.00 3.20 250.0 2 11 48.20 33.80 0.02 2.29 252.3 2 12 50.00 28.90 0.00 2.62 254.9 2 13 51.80 23.00 0.18 2.93 257.9 2 14 51.80 35.10 0.09 4.00 261.8 2 15 52.00 35.60 0.00 4.16 266.0 2 16 50.00 41.00 0.07 4.50 270.5 2 17 53.60 42.10 0.05 6.85 277.4 2 18 44.60 33.10 0.25 0.88 278.2 2 19 41.00 30.00 0.00 0.00 278.2 2 20 39.90 28.90 0.18 0.00 278.2 2 21 41.00 28.40 0.05 0.00 278.2 2 22 41.00 27.00 0.01 0.00 278.2 2 23 41.00 21.00 0.09 0.00 278.2 2 24 48.90 35.60 0.10 2.78 281.0 2 25 46.40 35.10 0.47 1.68 282.7 2 26 48.20 28.90 0.00 1.95 284.6 2 27 46.90 30.20 0.00 1.55 286.2 2 28 46.40 41.00 0.61 2.70 288.9 3 1 46.40 37.40 0.12 1.91 290.8 3 2 51.80 35.60 0.03 4.07 294.9 3 3 50.00 30.20 0.00 2.71 297.6 3 4 50.00 28.40 0.01 2.59 300.2 3 5 55.40 37.00 0.11 6.01 306.2 3 6 55.90 30.00 0.00 5.14 311.3 3 7 52.00 33.80 0.00 3.91 315.2 3 8 55.40 39.00 0.29 6.50 321.7 3 9 53.60 35.60 0.00 4.90 326.6 3 10 61.00 30.20 0.01 7.42 334.1 3 11 66.90 37.40 0.00 11.69 345.8 3 12 72.00 35.60 0.00 13.70 359.4 3 13 57.20 44.60 0.58 9.90 369.3 3 14 55.40 36.00 0.89 5.81 375.2 3 15 53.60 35.60 0.04 4.90 380.1 3 16 54.00 34.00 0.02 4.83 384.9 3 17 51.10 39.90 0.15 4.65 389.5 3 18 55.40 35.10 0.08 5.64 395.2 3 19 57.20 32.00 0.00 5.98 401.1 3 20 61.00 28.00 0.00 7.12 408.3 3 21 57.20 37.40 0.60 6.96 415.2 3 22 48.90 35.60 0.77 2.78 418.0 3 23 42.80 35.10 4.56 0.38 418.4 3 24 46.40 35.60 0.13 1.72 420.1 3 25 53.60 35.10 0.01 4.81 424.9 3 26 51.80 35.10 0.01 4.00 428.9 3 27 59.00 44.60 0.00 10.80 439.7 3 28 61.00 39.20 0.00 9.32 449.0 3 29 61.00 35.60 0.00 8.38 457.4 3 30 62.60 37.00 0.00 9.48 466.9 3 31 64.40 42.10 0.00 12.25 479.2 4 1 52.00 35.10 0.06 4.09 483.2 4 2 53.60 35.10 0.00 4.81 488.1 4 3 57.20 30.00 0.03 5.71 493.8 4 4 64.40 46.00 0.04 14.20 508.0 4 5 55.40 48.00 0.28 10.70 518.7 4 6 72.00 53.60 0.12 21.80 540.5 4 7 62.60 48.00 2.02 14.30 554.8 4 8 55.40 43.00 0.29 8.20 563.0 4 9 66.20 39.20 0.00 11.90 574.9 4 10 63.00 48.20 0.21 14.60 589.5 4 11 57.90 41.00 0.40 8.45 597.9 4 12 52.00 39.20 0.30 4.89 602.8 4 13 55.90 46.00 0.01 9.95 612.8 4 14 59.00 48.00 0.35 12.50 625.3 4 15 51.80 42.10 0.74 5.95 631.2 4 16 50.00 41.00 0.12 4.50 635.7 4 17 55.40 42.10 0.06 7.75 643.5 4 18 60.80 41.00 0.00 9.90 653.4 4 19 68.00 35.60 0.00 11.75 665.1 4 20 68.00 37.00 0.00 12.12 677.2 4 21 63.00 44.10 0.00 12.55 689.8 4 22 64.90 37.40 0.00 10.71 700.5 4 23 78.80 39.00 0.00 18.09 718.6 4 24 84.20 39.00 0.00 20.78 739.4 4 25 82.40 46.40 0.00 23.40 762.8 4 26 77.00 48.20 0.00 21.60 784.4 4 27 53.60 50.00 0.14 10.80 795.2 4 28 62.60 44.10 0.11 12.35 807.5 4 29 60.80 48.00 0.01 13.40 820.9 4 30 57.20 46.00 0.00 10.60 831.5 5 1 59.00 45.00 0.00 11.00 842.5 5 2 73.40 39.00 0.00 15.41 857.9 peak pheromone trap catch 5 3 75.90 46.00 0.00 19.95 877.9 5 4 66.90 50.00 0.00 17.45 895.3 5 5 73.90 50.00 0.05 20.95 916.3 5 6 71.60 52.00 0.04 20.80 937.1 5 7 75.20 51.80 0.00 22.50 959.6 peak female adult emergence 5 8 77.00 44.60 0.09 19.80 979.4 5 9 68.00 48.00 0.00 17.00 996.4 5 10 64.90 46.90 0.01 14.90 1011.3 peak egg laying 5 11 66.90 46.40 0.00 15.65 1026.9 5 12 81.00 48.20 0.00 23.60 1050.5 5 13 93.00 50.00 0.00 30.50 1081.0 5 14 87.80 50.00 0.00 27.90 1108.9 5 15 73.40 50.00 0.00 20.70 1129.6 5 16 68.00 53.60 0.00 19.80 1149.4 5 17 70.00 50.00 0.00 19.00 1168.4 5 18 70.00 46.40 0.00 17.20 1185.6 5 19 68.00 51.10 0.00 18.55 1204.2
DD accumulation on 5-19-18: 1204QA 100% ok    
  
This year is about  versus  QA
 11 days ahead 2017 ok
 14 days behind 2016 ok
 16 days ahead 30-yr normal ok
Forecast using:  Fox - IPPC forecast for KSLE data
  5 20  66.70 43.30  0.00  14.00   1218.2  0.00_5.96%_precip.    
  5 21  75.60 41.30  0.00  17.45   1235.6  0.00_9.55%_precip.    
  5 22  80.90 42.60  0.00  20.75   1256.4  0.00_12.46%_precip.    
  5 23  79.60 48.10  0.00  22.85   1279.2  0.00_13.91%_precip.   peak egg hatch
Forecast using: 10 yr Hist Avg KSLE 2006-2015
  5 24  63.50 47.00  0.12  14.25   1293.5  *hist_fcst*    
  5 25  67.00 47.30  0.08  16.15   1309.6  *hist_fcst*    
  5 26  67.30 47.00  0.14  16.15   1325.8  *hist_fcst*    
  5 27  65.40 48.30  0.09  15.85   1341.6  *hist_fcst*    
  5 28  65.30 47.90  0.11  15.60   1357.2  *hist_fcst*    
  5 29  67.00 47.50  0.06  16.25   1373.5  *hist_fcst*    
  5 30  71.00 48.10  0.00  18.55   1392.0  *hist_fcst*    
  5 31  75.00 48.70  0.07  20.85   1412.9  *hist_fcst*    
  6  1  74.30 50.00  0.09  21.15   1434.0  *hist_fcst*    
  6  2  70.90 50.90  0.12  19.90   1453.9  *hist_fcst*    
  6  3  70.30 49.50  0.13  18.90   1472.8  *hist_fcst*    
  6  4  71.80 49.80  0.13  19.80   1492.6  *hist_fcst*    
  6  5  72.70 50.20  0.11  20.45   1513.1  *hist_fcst*    
  6  6  72.10 49.70  0.05  19.90   1533.0  *hist_fcst*    
  6  7  71.20 50.30  0.04  19.75   1552.7  *hist_fcst*    
  6  8  70.90 50.00  0.03  19.45   1572.2  *hist_fcst*    
  6  9  73.10 49.30  0.03  20.20   1592.4  *hist_fcst*    
  6 10  69.70 48.20  0.05  17.95   1610.3  *hist_fcst*    
  6 11  68.10 48.70  0.01  17.40   1627.7  *hist_fcst*    
  6 12  71.50 48.70  0.01  19.10   1646.8  *hist_fcst*    
  6 13  71.20 49.30  0.09  19.25   1666.1  *hist_fcst*    
  6 14  70.10 49.60  0.03  18.85   1684.9  *hist_fcst*    
  6 15  70.50 48.60  0.00  18.55   1703.5  *hist_fcst*    
  6 16  72.20 49.00  0.02  19.60   1723.1  *hist_fcst*    
  6 17  72.20 48.60  0.02  19.40   1742.5  *hist_fcst*    
  6 18  71.30 49.30  0.00  19.30   1761.8  *hist_fcst*    
  6 19  70.50 49.70  0.02  19.10   1780.9  *hist_fcst*    
  6 20  72.70 49.40  0.02  20.05   1800.9  *hist_fcst*    
  6 21  73.70 50.00  0.01  20.85   1821.8  *hist_fcst*    
  6 22  76.10 50.40  0.00  22.25   1844.0  *hist_fcst*    
  6 23  74.20 49.30  0.03  20.75   1864.8  *hist_fcst*    
  6 24  75.50 50.30  0.06  21.90   1886.7  *hist_fcst*    
  6 25  76.80 51.30  0.02  23.05   1909.7  *hist_fcst*    
  6 26  77.00 52.90  0.06  23.95   1933.7  *hist_fcst*    
  6 27  79.50 53.50  0.04  25.50   1959.2  *hist_fcst*    
  6 28  82.10 54.00  0.02  27.05   1986.2  *hist_fcst*    
  6 29  79.60 55.60  0.03  26.60   2012.8  *hist_fcst*    
  6 30  78.70 54.40  0.01  25.55   2038.4  *hist_fcst*    
  7  1  81.70 52.90  0.03  26.30   2064.7  *hist_fcst*    
  7  2  84.20 53.60  0.01  27.90   2092.6  *hist_fcst*   peak in density large larvae
  7  3  84.50 54.60  0.01  28.55   2121.1  *hist_fcst*    
  7  4  82.10 53.50  0.00  26.80   2147.9  *hist_fcst*    
  7  5  81.90 53.10  0.00  26.50   2174.4  *hist_fcst*    
  7  6  80.50 53.60  0.00  26.05   2200.5  *hist_fcst*    
  7  7  82.00 52.80  0.00  26.40   2226.9  *hist_fcst*    
  7  8  84.00 53.30  0.00  27.65   2254.5  *hist_fcst*    
  7  9  86.50 54.40  0.00  29.45   2284.0  *hist_fcst*    
  7 10  87.00 55.10  0.00  30.05   2314.0  *hist_fcst*    
  7 11  84.10 54.40  0.00  28.25   2342.3  *hist_fcst*    
  7 12  81.20 54.80  0.01  27.00   2369.3  *hist_fcst*    
  7 13  79.80 55.30  0.09  26.55   2395.8  *hist_fcst*    
  7 14  80.20 53.90  0.03  26.05   2421.9  *hist_fcst*    
  7 15  85.20 54.70  0.00  28.95   2450.8  *hist_fcst*    
  7 16  85.20 55.30  0.01  29.25   2480.1  *hist_fcst*    
  7 17  83.20 55.40  0.01  28.30   2508.4  *hist_fcst*    
  7 18  80.60 54.30  0.05  26.45   2534.8  *hist_fcst*    
  7 19  80.70 54.70  0.02  26.70   2561.5  *hist_fcst*    
  7 20  82.50 55.10  0.00  27.80   2589.3  *hist_fcst*    
  7 21  81.60 54.40  0.00  27.00   2616.3  *hist_fcst*    
  7 22  83.00 55.20  0.01  28.10   2644.4  *hist_fcst*    
  7 23  79.90 55.80  0.01  26.85   2671.3  *hist_fcst*    
  7 24  82.20 54.70  0.03  27.45   2698.7  *hist_fcst*    
  7 25  86.20 54.60  0.00  29.40   2728.1  *hist_fcst*    
  7 26  84.90 54.40  0.00  28.65   2756.8  *hist_fcst*    
  7 27  85.20 54.30  0.00  28.75   2785.5  *hist_fcst*    
  7 28  84.50 54.90  0.00  28.70   2814.2  *hist_fcst*    
  7 29  85.30 54.90  0.00  29.10   2843.3  *hist_fcst*    
  7 30  84.50 55.70  0.00  29.10   2872.4  *hist_fcst*    
  7 31  84.30 53.90  0.00  28.10   2900.5  *hist_fcst*    
  8  1  85.30 54.20  0.01  28.75   2929.3  *hist_fcst*    
  8  2  84.20 55.80  0.00  29.00   2958.3  *hist_fcst*    
  8  3  83.00 55.10  0.00  28.05   2986.3  *hist_fcst*    
  8  4  84.60 54.00  0.00  28.30   3014.6  *hist_fcst*    
  8  5  86.90 53.70  0.00  29.30   3043.9  *hist_fcst*    
  8  6  85.50 55.00  0.00  29.25   3073.2  *hist_fcst*    
  8  7  83.20 55.50  0.00  28.35   3101.5  *hist_fcst*    
  8  8  81.10 54.80  0.00  26.95   3128.5  *hist_fcst*    
  8  9  78.80 54.70  0.00  25.75   3154.2  *hist_fcst*    
  8 10  80.00 54.60  0.00  26.30   3180.5  *hist_fcst*    
  8 11  81.70 53.20  0.01  26.45   3207.0  *hist_fcst*    
  8 12  83.70 55.20  0.01  28.45   3235.4  *hist_fcst*    
  8 13  82.30 54.40  0.00  27.35   3262.8  *hist_fcst*    
  8 14  84.20 54.80  0.00  28.50   3291.3  *hist_fcst*    
  8 15  86.10 55.90  0.00  30.00   3321.3  *hist_fcst*    
  8 16  83.90 56.70  0.00  29.30   3350.6  *hist_fcst*    
  8 17  85.80 55.80  0.00  29.80   3380.4  *hist_fcst*    
  8 18  86.50 56.10  0.00  30.30   3410.7  *hist_fcst*    
  8 19  84.60 56.10  0.04  29.35   3440.0  *hist_fcst*    
  8 20  84.40 55.90  0.04  29.15   3469.2  *hist_fcst*    
  8 21  81.00 54.00  0.05  26.50   3495.7  *hist_fcst*    
  8 22  80.00 52.80  0.00  25.40   3521.1  *hist_fcst*    
  8 23  80.50 52.40  0.00  25.45   3546.5  *hist_fcst*    
  8 24  81.50 52.60  0.00  26.05   3572.6  *hist_fcst*    
  8 25  83.20 53.20  0.04  27.20   3599.8  *hist_fcst*    
  8 26  82.70 53.50  0.02  27.10   3626.9  *hist_fcst*    
  8 27  83.20 53.20  0.01  27.20   3654.1  *hist_fcst*    
  8 28  84.30 53.60  0.00  27.95   3682.0  *hist_fcst*    
  8 29  82.00 54.20  0.04  27.10   3709.1  *hist_fcst*    
  8 30  77.70 54.10  0.04  24.90   3734.0  *hist_fcst*    
  8 31  75.70 53.30  0.03  23.50   3757.5  *hist_fcst*    
  9  1  76.00 50.70  0.01  22.35   3779.9  *hist_fcst*    
  9  2  79.90 51.10  0.00  24.50   3804.4  *hist_fcst*    
  9  3  81.20 51.10  0.00  25.15   3829.5  *hist_fcst*    
  9  4  81.40 51.30  0.03  25.35   3854.9  *hist_fcst*    
  9  5  79.70 51.50  0.04  24.60   3879.5  *hist_fcst*    
  9  6  79.50 52.10  0.30  24.80   3904.3  *hist_fcst*    
  9  7  80.30 50.60  0.02  24.45   3928.7  *hist_fcst*    
  9  8  80.70 51.70  0.02  25.20   3953.9  *hist_fcst*    
  9  9  80.70 51.20  0.01  24.95   3978.9  *hist_fcst*    
  9 10  80.20 52.10  0.00  25.15   4004.0  *hist_fcst*    
  9 11  83.50 51.00  0.00  26.25   4030.3  *hist_fcst*    
  9 12  86.50 50.70  0.00  27.60   4057.9  *hist_fcst*    
  9 13  84.00 50.90  0.00  26.45   4084.3  *hist_fcst*    
  9 14  77.20 51.50  0.00  23.35   4107.7  *hist_fcst*    
  9 15  76.80 51.60  0.00  23.20   4130.9  *hist_fcst*    
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight
Location: 2018 KSLE Salem: McNary Field
DD accumulation on 5-19-18: 1204 QA 100% ok  - show details 
  
This year is about  versus  QA
 11 days ahead 2017 ok
 14 days behind 2016 ok
 16 days ahead 30-yr normal ok
DateDDsEvent
 5-2-18 858peak pheromone trap catch
 5-7-18 960peak female adult emergence
 5-10-18 1011peak egg laying
 5-23-18 1279peak egg hatch
 7-2-18 2093peak in density large larvae
degree-day graph of orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Knight (1988)