|
Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Knight 1988
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit
Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default)
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date
No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1
Ending date: 9 15
Model validation status: partly validated
Region of known use: Pacific Northwest
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 850 DDs after biofix: Peak pheromone trap catch
2. 950 DDs after biofix: Peak female adult emergence
3. 1000 DDs after biofix: Peak egg laying
4. 1270 DDs after biofix: Peak egg hatch
5. 2070 DDs after biofix: Peak in density large larvae
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2018 KSLE METAR Salem: McNary Field OR Lat:44.9078 Long:-122.9950 Elev:210
mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
1 1 46.40 26.60 0.00 1.23 1.2 * START *
1 2 46.40 32.00 0.00 1.46 2.7
1 3 46.90 33.80 0.00 1.77 4.5
1 4 46.90 33.80 0.13 1.77 6.2
1 5 54.00 39.20 0.46 5.87 12.1
1 6 51.80 35.60 1.12 4.07 16.2
1 7 48.20 37.40 0.01 2.72 18.9
1 8 45.00 35.60 0.41 1.16 20.1
1 9 51.80 42.10 0.23 5.95 26.0
1 10 50.00 42.10 0.09 5.05 31.1
1 11 55.90 48.20 0.97 11.05 42.1
1 12 55.90 48.90 0.64 11.40 53.5
1 13 60.80 37.90 0.00 8.84 62.3
1 14 60.80 35.10 0.00 8.18 70.5
1 15 57.20 35.10 0.18 6.48 77.0
1 16 55.90 42.10 0.02 8.00 85.0
1 17 63.00 41.00 0.91 11.00 96.0
1 18 51.80 42.10 0.50 5.95 102.0
1 19 48.20 41.00 0.04 3.60 105.6
1 20 48.90 41.00 0.01 3.95 109.5
1 21 51.80 41.00 0.09 5.40 114.9
1 22 51.80 37.40 0.24 4.38 119.3
1 23 52.00 39.20 1.28 4.89 124.2
1 24 52.00 37.90 0.32 4.58 128.8
1 25 46.90 37.00 0.33 2.08 130.8
1 26 46.90 39.00 0.23 2.39 133.2
1 27 53.60 42.80 0.30 7.20 140.4
1 28 62.60 48.00 0.00 14.30 154.7
1 29 57.20 46.00 0.57 10.60 165.3
1 30 52.00 39.00 0.47 4.84 170.2
1 31 48.90 37.40 0.00 3.03 173.2
2 1 53.60 39.20 0.04 5.67 178.9
2 2 61.00 42.80 0.01 10.90 189.8
2 3 60.80 44.60 0.01 11.70 201.5
2 4 61.00 44.10 0.00 11.55 213.0
2 5 60.80 37.00 0.00 8.61 221.6
2 6 57.90 33.80 0.00 6.58 228.2
2 7 55.40 35.10 0.00 5.64 233.9
2 8 57.90 35.60 0.00 6.91 240.8
2 9 52.00 42.10 0.00 6.05 246.8
2 10 50.00 35.10 0.00 3.20 250.0
2 11 48.20 33.80 0.02 2.29 252.3
2 12 50.00 28.90 0.00 2.62 254.9
2 13 51.80 23.00 0.18 2.93 257.9
2 14 51.80 35.10 0.09 4.00 261.8
2 15 52.00 35.60 0.00 4.16 266.0
2 16 50.00 41.00 0.07 4.50 270.5
2 17 53.60 42.10 0.05 6.85 277.4
2 18 44.60 33.10 0.25 0.88 278.2
2 19 41.00 30.00 0.00 0.00 278.2
2 20 39.90 28.90 0.18 0.00 278.2
2 21 41.00 28.40 0.05 0.00 278.2
2 22 41.00 27.00 0.01 0.00 278.2
2 23 41.00 21.00 0.09 0.00 278.2
2 24 48.90 35.60 0.10 2.78 281.0
2 25 46.40 35.10 0.47 1.68 282.7
2 26 48.20 28.90 0.00 1.95 284.6
2 27 46.90 30.20 0.00 1.55 286.2
2 28 46.40 41.00 0.61 2.70 288.9
3 1 46.40 37.40 0.12 1.91 290.8
3 2 51.80 35.60 0.03 4.07 294.9
3 3 50.00 30.20 0.00 2.71 297.6
3 4 50.00 28.40 0.01 2.59 300.2
3 5 55.40 37.00 0.11 6.01 306.2
3 6 55.90 30.00 0.00 5.14 311.3
3 7 52.00 33.80 0.00 3.91 315.2
3 8 55.40 39.00 0.29 6.50 321.7
3 9 53.60 35.60 0.00 4.90 326.6
3 10 61.00 30.20 0.01 7.42 334.1
3 11 66.90 37.40 0.00 11.69 345.8
3 12 72.00 35.60 0.00 13.70 359.4
3 13 57.20 44.60 0.58 9.90 369.3
3 14 55.40 36.00 0.89 5.81 375.2
3 15 53.60 35.60 0.04 4.90 380.1
3 16 54.00 34.00 0.02 4.83 384.9
3 17 51.10 39.90 0.15 4.65 389.5
3 18 55.40 35.10 0.08 5.64 395.2
3 19 57.20 32.00 0.00 5.98 401.1
3 20 61.00 28.00 0.00 7.12 408.3
3 21 57.20 37.40 0.60 6.96 415.2
3 22 48.90 35.60 0.77 2.78 418.0
3 23 42.80 35.10 4.56 0.38 418.4
3 24 46.40 35.60 0.13 1.72 420.1
3 25 53.60 35.10 0.01 4.81 424.9
3 26 51.80 35.10 0.01 4.00 428.9
3 27 59.00 44.60 0.00 10.80 439.7
3 28 61.00 39.20 0.00 9.32 449.0
3 29 61.00 35.60 0.00 8.38 457.4
3 30 62.60 37.00 0.00 9.48 466.9
3 31 64.40 42.10 0.00 12.25 479.2
4 1 52.00 35.10 0.06 4.09 483.2
4 2 53.60 35.10 0.00 4.81 488.1
4 3 57.20 30.00 0.03 5.71 493.8
4 4 64.40 46.00 0.04 14.20 508.0
4 5 55.40 48.00 0.28 10.70 518.7
4 6 72.00 53.60 0.12 21.80 540.5
4 7 62.60 48.00 2.02 14.30 554.8
4 8 55.40 43.00 0.29 8.20 563.0
4 9 66.20 39.20 0.00 11.90 574.9
4 10 63.00 48.20 0.21 14.60 589.5
4 11 57.90 41.00 0.40 8.45 597.9
4 12 52.00 39.20 0.30 4.89 602.8
4 13 55.90 46.00 0.01 9.95 612.8
4 14 59.00 48.00 0.35 12.50 625.3
4 15 51.80 42.10 0.74 5.95 631.2
4 16 50.00 41.00 0.12 4.50 635.7
4 17 55.40 42.10 0.06 7.75 643.5
4 18 60.80 41.00 0.00 9.90 653.4
4 19 68.00 35.60 0.00 11.75 665.1
4 20 68.00 37.00 0.00 12.12 677.2
4 21 63.00 44.10 0.00 12.55 689.8
4 22 64.90 37.40 0.00 10.71 700.5
4 23 78.80 39.00 0.00 18.09 718.6
4 24 84.20 39.00 0.00 20.78 739.4
4 25 82.40 46.40 0.00 23.40 762.8
4 26 77.00 48.20 0.00 21.60 784.4
4 27 53.60 50.00 0.14 10.80 795.2
4 28 62.60 44.10 0.11 12.35 807.5
4 29 60.80 48.00 0.01 13.40 820.9
4 30 57.20 46.00 0.00 10.60 831.5
5 1 59.00 45.00 0.00 11.00 842.5
5 2 73.40 39.00 0.00 15.41 857.9 Peak pheromone trap catch
5 3 75.90 46.00 0.00 19.95 877.9
5 4 66.90 50.00 0.00 17.45 895.3
5 5 73.90 50.00 0.05 20.95 916.3
5 6 71.60 52.00 0.04 20.80 937.1
5 7 75.20 51.80 0.00 22.50 959.6 Peak female adult emergence
5 8 77.00 44.60 0.09 19.80 979.4
5 9 68.00 48.00 0.00 17.00 996.4
5 10 64.90 46.90 0.01 14.90 1011.3 Peak egg laying
5 11 66.90 46.40 0.00 15.65 1026.9
5 12 81.00 48.20 0.00 23.60 1050.5
5 13 93.00 50.00 0.00 30.50 1081.0
5 14 87.80 50.00 0.00 27.90 1108.9
5 15 73.40 50.00 0.00 20.70 1129.6
5 16 68.00 53.60 0.00 19.80 1149.4
5 17 70.00 50.00 0.00 19.00 1168.4
5 18 70.00 46.40 0.00 17.20 1185.6
5 19 68.00 51.10 0.00 18.55 1204.2
5 20 71.60 46.40 0.00 18.00 1222.2
5 21 75.90 44.60 0.00 19.25 1241.4
5 22 84.90 50.00 0.00 26.45 1267.9
5 23 77.00 53.10 0.00 24.05 1291.9 Peak egg hatch
5 24 73.40 55.40 0.00 23.40 1315.3
5 25 68.00 52.00 0.00 19.00 1334.3
5 26 69.80 44.10 0.00 15.95 1350.3
5 27 79.00 44.60 0.00 20.80 1371.1
5 28 75.90 48.20 0.00 21.05 1392.1
5 29 69.80 46.90 0.00 17.35 1409.5
5 30 69.80 39.20 0.00 13.69 1423.1
5 31 64.40 46.40 0.02 14.40 1437.5
6 1 73.90 42.80 0.00 17.35 1454.9
6 2 84.20 46.00 0.00 24.10 1479.0
6 3 73.90 51.10 0.00 21.50 1500.5
6 4 72.00 51.80 0.00 20.90 1521.4
6 5 73.90 43.00 0.00 17.45 1538.8
6 6 78.80 46.00 0.00 21.40 1560.2
6 7 72.00 52.00 0.00 21.00 1581.2
6 8 69.80 51.80 0.19 19.80 1601.0
6 9 63.00 48.20 0.04 14.60 1615.6
6 10 57.90 48.20 0.32 12.05 1627.7
6 11 72.00 51.80 0.01 20.90 1648.6
6 12 81.00 46.00 0.00 22.50 1671.1
6 13 64.90 53.10 0.01 18.00 1689.1
6 14 69.80 55.00 0.00 21.40 1710.5
6 15 72.00 55.00 0.00 22.50 1733.0
6 16 79.00 51.80 0.00 24.40 1757.4
6 17 91.40 53.10 0.00 31.25 1788.6
6 18 84.90 57.00 0.00 29.95 1818.6
6 19 91.90 53.10 0.00 31.50 1850.1
6 20 87.80 60.10 0.00 32.95 1883.0
6 21 75.90 59.00 0.00 26.45 1909.5
6 22 78.80 59.00 0.00 27.90 1937.4
6 23 78.80 59.00 0.00 27.90 1965.3
6 24 91.40 55.40 0.00 32.40 1997.7
6 25 69.80 55.00 0.00 21.40 2019.1
6 26 75.80 46.40 0.00 20.10 2039.2 Px
6 27 77.30 53.20 0.00 24.25 2063.4 Px Pn
6 28 76.50 59.60 0.00 27.05 2090.5 Px Pn Peak in density large larvae
6 29 82.90 62.60 0.00 31.75 2122.2
6 30 84.90 53.10 0.00 28.00 2150.2
7 1 81.00 55.40 0.00 27.20 2177.4
7 2 72.00 51.10 0.00 20.55 2198.0
7 3 78.80 46.00 0.00 21.40 2219.4
7 4 75.90 57.20 0.00 25.55 2244.9
7 5 88.00 53.10 0.00 29.55 2274.5
7 6 80.60 55.00 0.00 26.80 2301.3
7 7 82.40 51.80 0.00 26.10 2327.4
7 8 86.00 53.60 0.00 28.80 2356.2
7 9 70.00 51.80 0.00 19.90 2376.1
7 10 81.00 55.00 0.00 27.00 2403.1
7 11 90.00 55.40 0.00 31.70 2434.8
7 12 99.00 63.00 0.00 40.00 2474.8
7 13 95.00 60.80 0.00 36.90 2511.7
7 14 93.90 59.00 0.00 35.45 2547.1
7 15 99.00 59.00 0.00 38.00 2585.1
7 16 98.60 60.80 0.00 38.70 2623.8
7 17 91.40 60.10 0.00 34.75 2658.6
7 18 87.80 57.20 0.00 31.50 2690.1
7 19 75.90 57.00 0.00 25.45 2715.5
7 20 81.00 50.00 0.00 24.50 2740.0
7 21 82.90 50.00 0.00 25.45 2765.5
7 22 93.20 53.10 0.00 32.15 2797.6
7 23 95.00 57.20 0.00 35.10 2832.7
7 24 97.00 57.20 0.00 36.10 2868.8
7 25 98.60 57.20 0.00 36.90 2905.7
7 26 98.60 60.10 0.00 38.35 2944.1
7 27 91.90 57.20 0.00 33.55 2977.6
7 28 91.90 53.60 0.00 31.75 3009.4
7 29 99.00 60.10 0.00 38.55 3047.9
7 30 91.90 62.10 0.00 36.00 3083.9
7 31 91.90 57.00 0.00 33.45 3117.4
8 1 89.60 55.40 0.00 31.50 3148.9
8 2 75.20 55.00 0.00 24.10 3173.0
8 3 78.80 60.10 0.00 28.45 3201.4
8 4 86.00 55.00 0.00 29.50 3230.9
8 5 90.00 53.60 0.00 30.80 3261.7
8 6 91.40 57.20 0.00 33.30 3295.0
8 7 93.90 59.00 0.00 35.45 3330.5
8 8 93.90 62.10 0.00 37.00 3367.5
8 9 96.80 57.00 0.00 35.90 3403.4
8 10 91.40 60.10 0.00 34.75 3438.1
8 11 78.10 59.00 0.00 27.55 3465.7
8 12 81.00 55.90 0.00 27.45 3493.1
8 13 91.90 57.00 0.00 33.45 3526.6
8 14 91.90 57.20 0.00 33.55 3560.1
8 15 88.00 57.00 0.00 31.50 3591.6
8 16 84.20 57.00 0.00 29.60 3621.2
8 17 82.40 50.00 0.00 25.20 3646.4
8 18 88.00 50.00 0.00 28.00 3674.4
8 19 88.00 55.00 0.00 30.50 3704.9
8 20 82.40 55.00 0.00 27.70 3732.6
8 21 95.00 57.20 0.00 35.10 3767.7
8 22 93.20 55.40 0.00 33.30 3801.0
8 23 70.00 53.10 0.00 20.55 3821.6
8 24 73.40 53.10 0.00 22.25 3843.8
8 25 75.20 46.40 0.00 19.80 3863.6
8 26 70.00 60.10 0.00 24.05 3887.7
8 27 78.10 60.10 0.00 28.10 3915.8
8 28 90.00 51.10 0.00 29.55 3945.3
8 29 86.00 53.10 0.00 28.55 3973.9
8 30 75.00 54.00 0.00 23.50 3997.4
8 31 80.10 57.00 0.00 27.55 4024.9
9 1 75.90 50.00 0.00 21.95 4046.9
9 2 82.90 50.00 0.00 25.45 4072.3
9 3 80.60 53.10 0.00 25.85 4098.2
9 4 82.90 46.00 0.00 23.45 4121.6
9 5 89.60 51.80 0.00 29.70 4151.3
9 6 88.00 51.10 0.00 28.55 4179.9
9 7 84.20 50.00 0.00 26.10 4206.0
9 8 77.00 55.40 0.00 25.20 4231.2
9 9 80.60 48.00 0.00 23.30 4254.5
9 10 75.90 57.20 0.01 25.55 4280.0
9 11 69.80 51.80 0.06 19.80 4299.8
9 12 69.10 50.00 0.03 18.55 4318.4
9 13 69.80 48.20 0.02 18.00 4336.4
9 14 72.00 44.60 0.00 17.30 4353.7
9 15 68.00 46.00 0.11 16.00 4369.7
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 KSLE PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight 1988Location: 2018 KSLE Salem: McNary Field Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME Date | DDs | Event |
5-2-18 | 858 | Peak pheromone trap catch |
5-7-18 | 960 | Peak female adult emergence |
5-10-18 | 1011 | Peak egg laying |
5-23-18 | 1292 | Peak egg hatch |
6-28-18 | 2090 | Peak in density large larvae |