Online Phenology Models and Degree-day Calculator
immaturedamagepupaadult
orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
insect model of Knight (1988)


Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
	Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================ Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Type: insect Model source/other links: Knight (1988) Calculation method: single sine Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default) Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1 Ending date: 9 15 Model validation status: partly validated Region of known use: Pacific Northwest ==============================EVENTS TABLE================================ 1. 850 DDs after biofix: peak pheromone trap catch 2. 950 DDs after biofix: peak female adult emergence 3. 1000 DDs after biofix: peak egg laying 4. 1270 DDs after biofix: peak egg hatch 5. 2070 DDs after biofix: peak in density large larvae ==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================ Weather station: 2018 KSLE METAR Salem: McNary Field OR Lat:44.9078 Long:-122.9950 Elev:210 mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event -- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- ------- 1 1 46.40 26.60 0.00 1.23 1.2 * START * 1 2 46.40 32.00 0.00 1.46 2.7 1 3 46.90 33.80 0.00 1.77 4.5 1 4 46.90 33.80 0.13 1.77 6.2 1 5 54.00 39.20 0.46 5.87 12.1 1 6 51.80 35.60 1.12 4.07 16.2 1 7 48.20 37.40 0.01 2.72 18.9 1 8 45.00 35.60 0.41 1.16 20.1 1 9 51.80 42.10 0.23 5.95 26.0 1 10 50.00 42.10 0.09 5.05 31.1 1 11 55.90 48.20 0.97 11.05 42.1 1 12 55.90 48.90 0.64 11.40 53.5 1 13 60.80 37.90 0.00 8.84 62.3 1 14 60.80 35.10 0.00 8.18 70.5 1 15 57.20 35.10 0.18 6.48 77.0 1 16 55.90 42.10 0.02 8.00 85.0 1 17 63.00 41.00 0.91 11.00 96.0 1 18 51.80 42.10 0.50 5.95 102.0 1 19 48.20 41.00 0.04 3.60 105.6 1 20 48.90 41.00 0.01 3.95 109.5 1 21 51.80 41.00 0.09 5.40 114.9 1 22 51.80 37.40 0.24 4.38 119.3 1 23 52.00 39.20 1.28 4.89 124.2 1 24 52.00 37.90 0.32 4.58 128.8 1 25 46.90 37.00 0.33 2.08 130.8 1 26 46.90 39.00 0.23 2.39 133.2 1 27 53.60 42.80 0.30 7.20 140.4 1 28 62.60 48.00 0.00 14.30 154.7 1 29 57.20 46.00 0.57 10.60 165.3 1 30 52.00 39.00 0.47 4.84 170.2 1 31 48.90 37.40 0.00 3.03 173.2 2 1 53.60 39.20 0.04 5.67 178.9 2 2 61.00 42.80 0.01 10.90 189.8 2 3 60.80 44.60 0.01 11.70 201.5 2 4 61.00 44.10 0.00 11.55 213.0 2 5 60.80 37.00 0.00 8.61 221.6 2 6 57.90 33.80 0.00 6.58 228.2 2 7 55.40 35.10 0.00 5.64 233.9 2 8 57.90 35.60 0.00 6.91 240.8 2 9 52.00 42.10 0.00 6.05 246.8 2 10 50.00 35.10 0.00 3.20 250.0 2 11 48.20 33.80 0.02 2.29 252.3 2 12 50.00 28.90 0.00 2.62 254.9 2 13 51.80 23.00 0.18 2.93 257.9 2 14 51.80 35.10 0.09 4.00 261.8 2 15 52.00 35.60 0.00 4.16 266.0 2 16 50.00 41.00 0.07 4.50 270.5 2 17 53.60 42.10 0.05 6.85 277.4 2 18 44.60 33.10 0.25 0.88 278.2 2 19 41.00 30.00 0.00 0.00 278.2 2 20 39.90 28.90 0.18 0.00 278.2 2 21 41.00 28.40 0.05 0.00 278.2 2 22 41.00 27.00 0.01 0.00 278.2 2 23 41.00 21.00 0.09 0.00 278.2 2 24 48.90 35.60 0.10 2.78 281.0 2 25 46.40 35.10 0.47 1.68 282.7 2 26 48.20 28.90 0.00 1.95 284.6 2 27 46.90 30.20 0.00 1.55 286.2 2 28 46.40 41.00 0.61 2.70 288.9 3 1 46.40 37.40 0.12 1.91 290.8 3 2 51.80 35.60 0.03 4.07 294.9 3 3 50.00 30.20 0.00 2.71 297.6 3 4 50.00 28.40 0.01 2.59 300.2 3 5 55.40 37.00 0.11 6.01 306.2 3 6 55.90 30.00 0.00 5.14 311.3 3 7 52.00 33.80 0.00 3.91 315.2 3 8 55.40 39.00 0.29 6.50 321.7 3 9 53.60 35.60 0.00 4.90 326.6 3 10 61.00 30.20 0.01 7.42 334.1 3 11 66.90 37.40 0.00 11.69 345.8 3 12 72.00 35.60 0.00 13.70 359.4 3 13 57.20 44.60 0.58 9.90 369.3 3 14 55.40 36.00 0.89 5.81 375.2 3 15 53.60 35.60 0.04 4.90 380.1 3 16 54.00 34.00 0.02 4.83 384.9 3 17 51.10 39.90 0.15 4.65 389.5 3 18 55.40 35.10 0.08 5.64 395.2 3 19 57.20 32.00 0.00 5.98 401.1 3 20 61.00 28.00 0.00 7.12 408.3 3 21 57.20 37.40 0.60 6.96 415.2 3 22 48.90 35.60 0.77 2.78 418.0 3 23 42.80 35.10 4.56 0.38 418.4 3 24 46.40 35.60 0.13 1.72 420.1 3 25 53.60 35.10 0.01 4.81 424.9 3 26 51.80 35.10 0.01 4.00 428.9 3 27 59.00 44.60 0.00 10.80 439.7 3 28 61.00 39.20 0.00 9.32 449.0 3 29 61.00 35.60 0.00 8.38 457.4 3 30 62.60 37.00 0.00 9.48 466.9 3 31 64.40 42.10 0.00 12.25 479.2 4 1 52.00 35.10 0.06 4.09 483.2 4 2 53.60 35.10 0.00 4.81 488.1 4 3 57.20 30.00 0.03 5.71 493.8 4 4 64.40 46.00 0.04 14.20 508.0 4 5 55.40 48.00 0.28 10.70 518.7 4 6 72.00 53.60 0.12 21.80 540.5 4 7 62.60 48.00 2.02 14.30 554.8 4 8 55.40 43.00 0.29 8.20 563.0 4 9 66.20 39.20 0.00 11.90 574.9 4 10 63.00 48.20 0.21 14.60 589.5 4 11 57.90 41.00 0.40 8.45 597.9 4 12 52.00 39.20 0.30 4.89 602.8 4 13 55.90 46.00 0.01 9.95 612.8 4 14 59.00 48.00 0.35 12.50 625.3 4 15 51.80 42.10 0.74 5.95 631.2 4 16 50.00 41.00 0.12 4.50 635.7 4 17 55.40 42.10 0.06 7.75 643.5 4 18 60.80 41.00 0.00 9.90 653.4 4 19 68.00 35.60 0.00 11.75 665.1 4 20 68.00 37.00 0.00 12.12 677.2 4 21 63.00 44.10 0.00 12.55 689.8 4 22 64.90 37.40 0.00 10.71 700.5 4 23 78.80 39.00 0.00 18.09 718.6 4 24 84.20 39.00 0.00 20.78 739.4 4 25 82.40 46.40 0.00 23.40 762.8 4 26 77.00 48.20 0.00 21.60 784.4 4 27 53.60 50.00 0.14 10.80 795.2 4 28 62.60 44.10 0.11 12.35 807.5 4 29 60.80 48.00 0.01 13.40 820.9 4 30 57.20 46.00 0.00 10.60 831.5 5 1 59.00 45.00 0.00 11.00 842.5 5 2 73.40 39.00 0.00 15.41 857.9 peak pheromone trap catch 5 3 75.90 46.00 0.00 19.95 877.9 5 4 66.90 50.00 0.00 17.45 895.3 5 5 73.90 50.00 0.05 20.95 916.3 5 6 71.60 52.00 0.04 20.80 937.1 5 7 75.20 51.80 0.00 22.50 959.6 peak female adult emergence 5 8 77.00 44.60 0.09 19.80 979.4 5 9 68.00 48.00 0.00 17.00 996.4 5 10 64.90 46.90 0.01 14.90 1011.3 peak egg laying 5 11 66.90 46.40 0.00 15.65 1026.9 5 12 81.00 48.20 0.00 23.60 1050.5 5 13 93.00 50.00 0.00 30.50 1081.0 5 14 87.80 50.00 0.00 27.90 1108.9 5 15 73.40 50.00 0.00 20.70 1129.6 5 16 68.00 53.60 0.00 19.80 1149.4 5 17 70.00 50.00 0.00 19.00 1168.4 5 18 70.00 46.40 0.00 17.20 1185.6 5 19 68.00 51.10 0.00 18.55 1204.2 5 20 71.60 46.40 0.00 18.00 1222.2 5 21 75.90 44.60 0.00 19.25 1241.4 5 22 84.90 50.00 0.00 26.45 1267.9 5 23 77.00 53.10 0.00 24.05 1291.9 peak egg hatch 5 24 73.40 55.40 0.00 23.40 1315.3 5 25 68.00 52.00 0.00 19.00 1334.3 5 26 69.80 44.10 0.00 15.95 1350.3 5 27 79.00 44.60 0.00 20.80 1371.1 5 28 75.90 48.20 0.00 21.05 1392.1 5 29 69.80 46.90 0.00 17.35 1409.5 5 30 69.80 39.20 0.00 13.69 1423.1 5 31 64.40 46.40 0.02 14.40 1437.5 6 1 73.90 42.80 0.00 17.35 1454.9 6 2 84.20 46.00 0.00 24.10 1479.0 6 3 73.90 51.10 0.00 21.50 1500.5 6 4 72.00 51.80 0.00 20.90 1521.4 6 5 73.90 43.00 0.00 17.45 1538.8 6 6 78.80 46.00 0.00 21.40 1560.2 6 7 72.00 52.00 0.00 21.00 1581.2 6 8 69.80 51.80 0.19 19.80 1601.0 6 9 63.00 48.20 0.04 14.60 1615.6 6 10 57.90 48.20 0.32 12.05 1627.7 6 11 72.00 51.80 0.01 20.90 1648.6 6 12 81.00 46.00 0.00 22.50 1671.1 6 13 64.90 53.10 0.01 18.00 1689.1 6 14 69.80 55.00 0.00 21.40 1710.5 6 15 72.00 55.00 0.00 22.50 1733.0 6 16 79.00 51.80 0.00 24.40 1757.4 6 17 91.40 53.10 0.00 31.25 1788.6 6 18 84.90 57.00 0.00 29.95 1818.6 6 19 91.90 53.10 0.00 31.50 1850.1 6 20 87.80 60.10 0.00 32.95 1883.0 6 21 75.90 59.00 0.00 26.45 1909.5 6 22 78.80 59.00 0.00 27.90 1937.4 6 23 78.80 59.00 0.00 27.90 1965.3 6 24 91.40 55.40 0.00 32.40 1997.7 6 25 69.80 55.00 0.00 21.40 2019.1 6 26 75.70 46.40 0.00 20.05 2039.1 Px 6 27 77.30 53.20 0.00 24.25 2063.4 Px Pn 6 28 76.50 59.60 0.00 27.05 2090.4 Px Pn peak in density large larvae 6 29 82.90 62.60 0.00 31.75 2122.2 6 30 84.90 53.10 0.00 28.00 2150.2 7 1 81.00 55.40 0.00 27.20 2177.4 7 2 72.00 51.10 0.00 20.55 2197.9 7 3 78.80 46.00 0.00 21.40 2219.3 7 4 75.90 57.20 0.00 25.55 2244.9 7 5 88.00 53.10 0.00 29.55 2274.4 7 6 80.60 55.00 0.00 26.80 2301.2 7 7 82.40 51.80 0.00 26.10 2327.3 7 8 86.00 53.60 0.00 28.80 2356.1 7 9 70.00 51.80 0.00 19.90 2376.0 7 10 81.00 55.00 0.00 27.00 2403.0 7 11 90.00 55.40 0.00 31.70 2434.7 7 12 99.00 63.00 0.00 40.00 2474.7 7 13 95.00 60.80 0.00 36.90 2511.6 7 14 93.20 59.00 0.00 35.10 2546.7
DD accumulation on 7-14-18: 2547QA 98% ok    
  
This year is about  versus  QA
 8 days ahead 2017 ok
 10 days behind 2016 ok
 16 days ahead 30-yr normal ok
Forecast using:  Fox - IPPC forecast for KSLE data
  7 15  94.40 55.10  0.00  33.75   2580.5  0.00_24.75%_precip.    
  7 16  90.40 53.20  0.00  30.80   2611.3  0.00_21.80%_precip.    
  7 17  87.10 50.40  0.00  27.75   2639.0  0.00_18.75%_precip.    
  7 18  76.70 50.00  0.00  22.35   2661.4  0.00_13.35%_precip.    
  7 19  81.30 48.20  0.00  23.75   2685.1  0.00_14.80%_precip.    
Forecast using: 10 yr Hist Avg KSLE 2006-2015
  7 20  82.50 55.10  0.00  27.80   2712.9  *hist_fcst*    
  7 21  81.60 54.40  0.00  27.00   2739.9  *hist_fcst*    
  7 22  83.00 55.20  0.01  28.10   2768.0  *hist_fcst*    
  7 23  79.90 55.80  0.01  26.85   2794.9  *hist_fcst*    
  7 24  82.20 54.70  0.03  27.45   2822.3  *hist_fcst*    
  7 25  86.20 54.60  0.00  29.40   2851.7  *hist_fcst*    
  7 26  84.90 54.40  0.00  28.65   2880.4  *hist_fcst*    
  7 27  85.20 54.30  0.00  28.75   2909.1  *hist_fcst*    
  7 28  84.50 54.90  0.00  28.70   2937.8  *hist_fcst*    
  7 29  85.30 54.90  0.00  29.10   2966.9  *hist_fcst*    
  7 30  84.50 55.70  0.00  29.10   2996.0  *hist_fcst*    
  7 31  84.30 53.90  0.00  28.10   3024.1  *hist_fcst*    
  8  1  85.30 54.20  0.01  28.75   3052.9  *hist_fcst*    
  8  2  84.20 55.80  0.00  29.00   3081.9  *hist_fcst*    
  8  3  83.00 55.10  0.00  28.05   3109.9  *hist_fcst*    
  8  4  84.60 54.00  0.00  28.30   3138.2  *hist_fcst*    
  8  5  86.90 53.70  0.00  29.30   3167.5  *hist_fcst*    
  8  6  85.50 55.00  0.00  29.25   3196.8  *hist_fcst*    
  8  7  83.20 55.50  0.00  28.35   3225.1  *hist_fcst*    
  8  8  81.10 54.80  0.00  26.95   3252.1  *hist_fcst*    
  8  9  78.80 54.70  0.00  25.75   3277.8  *hist_fcst*    
  8 10  80.00 54.60  0.00  26.30   3304.1  *hist_fcst*    
  8 11  81.70 53.20  0.01  26.45   3330.6  *hist_fcst*    
  8 12  83.70 55.20  0.01  28.45   3359.0  *hist_fcst*    
  8 13  82.30 54.40  0.00  27.35   3386.4  *hist_fcst*    
  8 14  84.20 54.80  0.00  28.50   3414.9  *hist_fcst*    
  8 15  86.10 55.90  0.00  30.00   3444.9  *hist_fcst*    
  8 16  83.90 56.70  0.00  29.30   3474.2  *hist_fcst*    
  8 17  85.80 55.80  0.00  29.80   3504.0  *hist_fcst*    
  8 18  86.50 56.10  0.00  30.30   3534.3  *hist_fcst*    
  8 19  84.60 56.10  0.04  29.35   3563.6  *hist_fcst*    
  8 20  84.40 55.90  0.04  29.15   3592.8  *hist_fcst*    
  8 21  81.00 54.00  0.05  26.50   3619.3  *hist_fcst*    
  8 22  80.00 52.80  0.00  25.40   3644.7  *hist_fcst*    
  8 23  80.50 52.40  0.00  25.45   3670.1  *hist_fcst*    
  8 24  81.50 52.60  0.00  26.05   3696.2  *hist_fcst*    
  8 25  83.20 53.20  0.04  27.20   3723.4  *hist_fcst*    
  8 26  82.70 53.50  0.02  27.10   3750.5  *hist_fcst*    
  8 27  83.20 53.20  0.01  27.20   3777.7  *hist_fcst*    
  8 28  84.30 53.60  0.00  27.95   3805.6  *hist_fcst*    
  8 29  82.00 54.20  0.04  27.10   3832.7  *hist_fcst*    
  8 30  77.70 54.10  0.04  24.90   3857.6  *hist_fcst*    
  8 31  75.70 53.30  0.03  23.50   3881.1  *hist_fcst*    
  9  1  76.00 50.70  0.01  22.35   3903.5  *hist_fcst*    
  9  2  79.90 51.10  0.00  24.50   3928.0  *hist_fcst*    
  9  3  81.20 51.10  0.00  25.15   3953.1  *hist_fcst*    
  9  4  81.40 51.30  0.03  25.35   3978.5  *hist_fcst*    
  9  5  79.70 51.50  0.04  24.60   4003.1  *hist_fcst*    
  9  6  79.50 52.10  0.30  24.80   4027.9  *hist_fcst*    
  9  7  80.30 50.60  0.02  24.45   4052.3  *hist_fcst*    
  9  8  80.70 51.70  0.02  25.20   4077.5  *hist_fcst*    
  9  9  80.70 51.20  0.01  24.95   4102.5  *hist_fcst*    
  9 10  80.20 52.10  0.00  25.15   4127.6  *hist_fcst*    
  9 11  83.50 51.00  0.00  26.25   4153.9  *hist_fcst*    
  9 12  86.50 50.70  0.00  27.60   4181.5  *hist_fcst*    
  9 13  84.00 50.90  0.00  26.45   4207.9  *hist_fcst*    
  9 14  77.20 51.50  0.00  23.35   4231.3  *hist_fcst*    
  9 15  76.80 51.60  0.00  23.20   4254.5  *hist_fcst*    
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight
Location: 2018 KSLE Salem: McNary Field
DD accumulation on 7-14-18: 2547 QA 98% ok  - show details 
  
This year is about  versus  QA
 8 days ahead 2017 ok
 10 days behind 2016 ok
 16 days ahead 30-yr normal ok
DateDDsEvent
 5-2-18 858peak pheromone trap catch
 5-7-18 960peak female adult emergence
 5-10-18 1011peak egg laying
 5-23-18 1292peak egg hatch
 6-28-18 2090peak in density large larvae
degree-day graph of orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Knight (1988)